New analysis claims Darfur deaths near 400,000 - Experts estimate 500 people a day are dying

Email just received today April 21 from US-based David Rubenstein at Save Darfur.org with the message "I thought you would want to see this distressing news immediately. It certainly emphasizes the urgency of our work":

"In the most comprehensive statistical analysis to date, experts have concluded that close to 400,000 people have died in Darfur since the conflict began over two years ago. The Washington-based Coalition For international Justice (CIJ) and experts from Northwestern and Toronto Universities estimate that 140,000 people have been killed by Sudanese government forces and their proxy militia and 250,000 Darfur civilians have died from either disease, starvation or exposure.

"This is the first thorough review of data which recorded deaths from violence, disappearances, disease, starvation and exposure during flight in the largest geographical area yet available in Darfur," said John Hagan, the  John D. MacArthur Professor of Sociology and Law at Northwestern University, who led the analysis of the estimated 140,000 deaths by violence.

Hagan and his colleague University of Toronto researcher Patricia Parker reviewed data culled from 1,136 interviews of refugees from Darfur conducted by the Coalition for International Justice last summer, as well as data presented in the World Health Organization's survey of deaths in refugee camps last year. Based on their analysis of the combined data, they estimate that the number of persons who have died or disappeared between February 2003 to April 2005 is close to 400,000.

The initial CIJ survey was initiated by the US State Department and led the US government to conclude last September that the events in Darfur constituted genocide.

"These numbers continue to grow as the attacks persist and aid organizations are denied access to civilians in urgent need of international assistance," said Stefanie Frease, CIJ's Director of Programs, who led the international team that interviewed refugees from Darfur in Chad last summer. "Despite the death toll so far, not enough is being done to save the thousands who will inevitably die unless the world community supports the type of intervention needed to stop the killing."

Analysis of the combined CIJ and WHO surveys reveals that about 15,000 deaths are occurring per month, or about 500 deaths per day.

The analysis of CIJ interviews was independently initiated by Hagan, Parker and CIJ."