Inside the frantic days leading to Sudan’s coup

Report by ABDI LATIF DAHIR and DECLAN WALSH, The New York Times

Published: Sun 31 Oct 2021 08:21 AM BdST - Reprinted by bdnews24.com

Title: 'They lied.’ Inside the frantic days leading to Sudan’s coup

For days, the American envoy navigated between Sudan’s army chief and prime minister, striving to head off the collapse of a tenuous democratic transition in the country that had been two years in the making.

In a frantic series of meetings in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum last weekend, Jeffrey Feltman, the US envoy to the Horn of Africa, sought to narrow the differences between the army chief, Lt Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the civilian prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, who had been sharing power since the 2019 ouster of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir.

At a final meeting Sunday afternoon, al-Burhan argued that Sudan’s Cabinet should be dismissed and replaced with technocrats but gave no indication he was preparing to seize power. With that reassurance, the American diplomat wrapped things up and caught a flight to Qatar where, on landing, his phone lit up: A coup was underway in Sudan.

“They lied to him,” said Nureldin Satti, Sudan’s ambassador to the United States, referring to his country’s military leadership. “This is very serious, because when you lie to the US, you have to pay the consequences.”

No one factor appeared to prompt al-Burhan to call a halt to Sudan’s democratic transition. Nor is it certain his coup will succeed, given the mass demonstrations called for this Saturday.

In a series of interviews with analysts and multiple American, Sudanese and European officials, a picture emerged of a military that had grown frustrated with its civilian partners and was intent on maintaining its privileged position and avoiding any investigations into its business affairs or human rights abuses during al-Bashir’s three decades of rule.

Some also faulted the civilian opposition for failing to assuage the generals’ fears of prosecution while the transition to democracy was still underway, while one US official said that Russia had encouraged the coup in hopes of securing commercial advantages and a port on the Red Sea.

Sudan’s civilian leadership had been living in fear of a military coup for at least 18 months. Last weekend, as pro-military protesters camped outside the presidential palace and a pro-military ethnic group closed off the country’s main seaport, it seemed imminent.

Around noon Monday, al-Burhan announced the dissolution of the country’s governing bodies, arrested the prime minister, blocked the internet and announced a nationwide state of emergency. He also disbanded the committees managing the country’s trade unions, while his security forces arrested top civilian leaders, at least one of whom was badly beaten, according to Western officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, under normal diplomatic practice.

His moves plunged the nation into a wave of deadly protests and work stoppages, and drew condemnation from regional and global leaders who insisted on the need to return to civilian leadership. But none of that has seemed to soften the resolve of al-Burhan and his confederates.

“We are back to square one,” said Jihad Mashamoun, a Sudanese researcher and analyst. “General al-Burhan has once again set the seal on the military’s dominance in Sudanese affairs, and the people will come out to face him.”

Little known before 2019, al-Burhan, 61, rose to power in the tumultuous aftermath of the military-led coup that ousted al-Bashir. Then the inspector general of the armed forces, he played a role in sending Sudanese troops, including children, to fight in Yemen’s civil war. He had also served as a regional army commander in Darfur, when 300,000 people were killed and millions of others displaced in fighting between 2003 and 2008.

A close associate of al-Bashir, the general firmly believed the military was the most important institution in the country, tantamount to the state itself, said Cameron Hudson, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Africa Centre.

Thrust into the public eye following a popular uprising against the strongman ruler, he proved a reluctant leader, unaccustomed to the international stage. Under the long decades of isolation and international sanctions under al-Bashir, his sphere of travel had been limited to a handful of Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

By contrast, Hamdok, 65, an economist by training, had spent much of his career working at international financial institutions and consulting firms.

The two leaders remained amicable in the beginning, with Hamdok’s government overseeing a raft of reforms that succeeded in removing Sudan from the US list of countries that sponsor terrorism, banned female genital cutting and scrapped apostasy laws. He also signed a peace agreement with rebel groups.

But their relationship soon soured over the question of how best to manage the country and the economy. Those differences deepened after a coup attempt in September.

Tensions rose further in recent months as pro-democracy groups stepped up calls for the military to relinquish power to civilians and for the transitional government to investigate human rights abuses and corruption under al-Bashir. The military balked, analysts and officials said, fearful that any measures of accountability would expose their personal, financial and factional interests.

“It’s all tactical retreat,” said Hudson, arguing that the generals signed the power-sharing agreement in 2019 to relieve pressure on the military, not because they truly believed in it. “The only throughline in all of this is the military’s survival.”

Another divisive issue was whether to hand over al-Bashir to the International Criminal Court, where he has been charged with crimes against humanity and other offenses. Neither al-Burhan nor Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan, also known as Hemeti, head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that were accused of genocidal violence in Darfur, have been indicted by the court, and analysts say they are keen to maintain the status quo.

“The two generals have had very close relations since Darfur and have everything to worry about if Mr al-Bashir is taken to the ICC,” Mashamoun said. “They would like to see some sort of immunity.”

The armed forces and intelligence services have also resisted efforts to rein in their extensive financial power.

Together they control hundreds of state-owned enterprises dealing in the production and sale of minerals, including gold, imports and exports of livestock, construction materials and pharmaceuticals. Rife with corruption, the companies rarely contribute their profits to the national budget, said Suliman Baldo, a senior adviser at The Sentry, a Washington-based group that seeks to expose corruption in Africa.

Al-Burhan also heads the board of trustees for Defence Industrial Systems, one of the military’s biggest firms. “He is doubling up as a corporate baron while he’s also the general commander of the army and now the de facto head of state,” Baldo said.

But civilian leaders in the transitional government bear some of the blame for the breakdown in relations, said Satti, the Sudanese ambassador, whom the military said Thursday it had fired along with other ambassadors who had publicly condemned the coup. Satti insisted that he was still on the job.

“There is a tug of war and a mutual provocation between the two sides,” he said. He added that some civilians did not understand the importance of alleviating the military’s fears.

With rising inflation and a shortage of basic goods, Hamdok faced a lot of pressure, too. A technocrat by training and temperament, he lacked the political skills to manage the tensions, Satti said.

There were “too many actors, a lot of disagreements and not a proper background to understand the requirements of the moment,” he said. “And he pushed too hard, too fast.”

Analysts said that al-Burhan would not have undertaken the coup without at least the tacit approval of powerful allies in the Middle East. Two of those, Egypt and the UAE, have yet to criticise the coup, while Saudi Arabia has condemned it, the US State Department said in a statement.

Al-Burhan has defended the coup as necessary to avert a “civil war” and promised to transfer power following elections in 2023. It is a timeline many young Sudanese say they do not agree with, a point they plan on making in Saturday’s protests.

“It’s going to be a showdown,” Mashamoun said.

© 2021 The New York Times Company

IMAGE, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan attends a news conference during the International Conference in support of Sudan at the Temporary Grand Palais in Paris, France, May 17, 2021. REUTERS 

View source: https://bdnews24.com/world/africa/2021/10/31/they-lied.-inside-the-frantic-days-leading-to-sudans-coup