UNAMID Cost: 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: $1.6 billion - UNMIS Cost: 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: $858.77 million

UN Security Council Report has published its Monthly Forecast Report previewing issues likely to be considered in the UN Security Council during July 2009. The Report is published at www.securitycouncilreport.org and is available in PDF.

From UNSCs July 2009 Forecast re Sudan:

The mandate of the UNAMID expires on 31 July and the Council is expected to renew. The Council will consider the two most recent Secretary-General’s reports on UNAMID (one covering April and May and one likely to be received in mid-July covering June) and will be briefed by the joint AU-UN Special Representative, Rodolphe Adada. The Under-Secretary-General for Field Support, Susana Malcorra, may brief on developments regarding UNAMID’s deployment. To read the full text, please click here

Excerpts:

In a briefing on 11 June, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes highlighted ongoing concerns about the impact of the NGO ejections on the Three Protocol Areas (Abyei, Blue Nile State, and Southern Kordofan State) and eastern Sudan. He also conveyed serious concerns about the high humanitarian toll of the tribal violence in Jonglei state and the renewed presence in Sudan of the Ugandan rebel group, Lord’s Resistance Army.

Two African nations indicated they will enforce the ICC’s arrest warrant for Bashir. In May, South Africa warned Bashir against attending President Jacob Zuma’s inauguration in Pretoria, and Botswana on 9 June announced that it would arrest Bashir should he visit.

An issue for Darfur—and for Sudan as a whole—are the growing concerns about the north-south relationship and the recent upsurge in tribal violence. Important in this context will be whether both sides accept the ruling, expected in July, of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on Abyei.

On the possibility of additional names for targeted sanctions, members are divided. Some (such as Libya) are interested in adding rebel leaders, and others (like France) are willing to move forward only if additions would also include spoilers on the government side. Sanctions committees operate by consensus and this may mean a continuing standstill on the sanctions list issue.

The UK is the lead nation on Sudan.

Other Relevant Facts

UNAMID: Joint AU-UN Special Representative for Darfur

Rodolphe Adada (Republic of Congo)

Joint AU-UN Chief Mediator

Djibrill Yipènè Bassolé (Burkina Faso)

UNAMID: Size, Composition and Cost

Maximum authorised strength: up to 19,555 military personnel, 3,772 police and 19 formed police units (total police 6432)

Main troop contributors: Nigeria, Rwanda, Egypt and Ethiopia

Strength as of 23 June 2009: 13,455 military personnel (including 12,814 troops, 378 staff officers, 179 military observers and 84 liaison officers) and 2,972 police personnel (including 1,997 police advisers and 7 formed units composed of 975 personnel)

Cost: 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: $1.6 billion

UNAMID: Duration

31 July 2007 to present; mandate expires 31 July 2009

UNMIS: Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission

Ashraf Jehangir Qazi (Pakistan)

UNMIS: Size, Composition and Cost

Maximum authorised strength: up to 10,000 military and 715 police personnel

Strength as of 31 May 2009: 8,722 troops, 540 observers, 184 staff officers and 629 police.

Main troop contributors: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh

Cost: 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: $858.77 million

UNMIS: Duration

24 March 2005 to present; mandate expires 30 April 2010

Sanctions Committee Chairman

Thomas Mayr-Harting (Austria)
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Below are summaries of some of the issues covered in UNSCs July 2009 Forecast.

Chad-CAR
In July the Council is expected to consider the Secretary-General’s report on the MINURCAT, including an update on the development of a strategic work plan with indicative timelines to measure and track progress on the implementation of benchmarks. To read the full text, please click here.

Children and Armed Conflict
In July the Council is expected to consider the annual report on the activities of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict from 1 July 2008 to 30 June 2009. The Council is likely to be briefed by both France, which was chair of the Working Group until the end of 2008, and Mexico, which took over in January 2009. By the end of July, the Council is also expected to take up the issue of expanding the criteria for including parties to armed conflict in the annexes to the Secretary-General’s report on children and armed conflict, as foreshadowed in its 29 April presidential statement. To read the full text, please click here.

Women, Peace and Security
The Council is expected to hold a debate in July on implementation of resolution 1820 on sexual violence in conflict. (The Secretary-General’s report is due on 30 June). At press time it was unclear whether the report would be received on time and if the Council would consider it in July or August. It was also unclear whether there would be any formal Council action following the debate. To read the full text, please click here.
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