Zamzam IDP camp in Al Fasher, N Darfur, Sudan could be surrounded by Hemeti's RSF in days or weeks

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: A nightmare scenario, unless something major happens and none of the current trends change, is not only the fall of Sudan's Armed Forces' (SAF) 6th Infantry Division in Al Fasher, capital city of North Darfur, Sudan to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) but that Zamzam IDP camp in the area is also likely to be surrounded by RSF in days or weeks.

Here is a rough transcript I made of a video (Abrabic subtitles) showing Abdallah Hussain, News Anchor for Albalad TV interviewing Nathaniel Raymond, Director, Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health, USA on Sunday, 22 Sept 2024 and streamed on 23 Sept 2024.

Question by ABDALLAH HUSSAIN:

"So Mr Raymond, regarding your previous point that RSF outnumbers the joint forces plus the Sudanese Army and of course the rainy season has been a factor right now that’s occurring on the battlefield, what after the rainy season can we anticipate that El Fasher will fall?"

Answer by NATHANIEL RAYMOND:

"If, at the end of the day making predictions in a yes, no or [on this day?] X or Y is going to happen doesn’t help but I think it does help to talk about where the trends are going.

Right now, Sudan Armed Forces controls a corridor on the western side of the city that’s maybe 8-9 kilometres long by 4 kilometres wide depending on how you measure it. And RSF has all the [advantages?] at this point. 

Now things can change but if none of the current trends change what we really have to worry about is not only the fall of 6th Infantry Division in Al Fasher but is a Rapid Support Forces move on Zamzam camp. 

What for me is a nightmare scenario and you can tell by watching the space - the Sudan Armed Forces is also concerned about this - is that RSF takes the B26 road going south, not [South?] Sudan Armed Forces' checkpoint on that road, and then from Al Fasher in Nyala squeezes Zamzam and surrounds it, and you can tell based on what we can see inside Zamzam that people there are also concerned about being surrounded and that is a nightmare scenario [.?.] unless something major happens the [trend line?] is that Al Fasher will fall and Zamzam is likely to be surrounded in days or weeks".

FURTHER VIDEO👇 

El Fasher Siege Continues | Analysis

VIDEO INTERVIEW dated Tue, Sept 24, 2024: "As the siege continues and El Fasher battles intensify, Abdallah Hussain, News Anchor for Albalad TV spoke with Nathaniel Raymond, Executive Director at the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health, to delve into the escalating humanitarian crisis and its impact on civilians".

Source: YouTube https://youtu.be/J_CtJr3YJXw

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Related

African Union urges end to fighting in Sudan's El-Fasher

AFP yesterday (24 Sep) says African Union urges end to fighting in Sudan's El-Fasher: AUC said its chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat "calls for an immediate cessation of the fighting inside and outside of El-Fasher," it added. Mahamat also called on the AU's Peace and Security Council to "urgently consider the situation".

Full story: https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/532383.aspx

Sudan: RSF to turn Zurrug, N. Darfur into a dream city

Sudan Watch - October 05, 2023
As Hemeti, the ruthless leader of Sudan's Janjaweed militia, has grand plans for Zurrug, a remote western province in North Darfur, Sudan the transformation of Zurrug risks more unrest. 

Full story: https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2023/10/sudan-rsf-to-turn-zurrug-n-darfur-into.html

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Sudan health minister declares cholera epidemic & appeals for "immediate" & "urgent" international aid

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Shortly after fighting erupted in Sudan 15 April 2023, the Sudanese authorities dismissed the UN from Sudan and refused visas for most journalists. News of the humanitarian crises mainly comes from aid agencies in Sudan such as UNHCR, UNICEF, MSF, NRC.

They know when to expect rainy seasons in Sudan. Now, suddenly, after weeks of torrential rain, 10 hours daily in some areas, floods have destroyed flimsy shelters and subjected civilians of all ages to malaria, cholera and waterborne diseases while being cut off from food, water, medicines and medical help, Sudan's Health Minister Haitham Ibrahim pops up in the media today (Aug 18) to appeal for "immediate" and "urgent" international aid, knowing that many roads are impassable or too dangerous to use.

What has he been working on in the past year? Is he still getting paid? If so, what for? He knows villagers in RSF controlled areas can't survive without protection, food, water purification, medical help, medicines for cholera, malaria, waterborne diseases etc. Allegedly, many villagers are drinking from the Nile River. Here is a simple guide to drinking water from the Nile: 

• Can you drink from the Nile? The River Nile is the primary source of freshwater for drinking, irrigation, and industrial purposes in Egypt. However, it is not recommended to drink water directly from the Nile due to pollution and contamination. 

• Is the Nile river water drinkable? No, the water from the Nile River is not safe for drinking. It is heavily polluted with sewage, poisonous chemicals, fertiliser residues, radioactive waste, and oil pollution. 

Also, here are excerpts from a below mentioned report published today titled 'Sudan health minister declares cholera epidemic':

• Sudan's health minister Haitham Ibrahim yesterday declared a cholera epidemic after weeks of heavy rain in the country, in a video released by his ministry.

• "We are declaring a cholera epidemic because of the weather conditions and because drinking water has been contaminated," Haitham Ibrahim said in the video.

• He said the decision was taken in conjunction with authorities in the eastern state of Kassala, United Nations agencies and experts after the "discovery by the public health laboratory of the cholera virus".

• Famine has been declared in a displacement camp in the vast western region of Darfur.

• For weeks the country has seen torrential rainfall, with Kassala state badly hit. The authorities there have appealed for "immediate" and "urgent" international aid. Read more.

From Medicalxpress online 

Written by AFP (Agence France-Presse)

Dated Sunday, 18 August 2024

Sudan health minister declares cholera epidemic

Scanning electron microscope image of Vibrio cholerae. Credit: Wikipedia

Full story: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-08-sudan-health-minister-declares-cholera.html

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Related reports

From UN International Organization for Migration (IOM)

Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM)

Dated Saturday, 17 August 2024. Full copy:

 

Natural Disaster Displacement Summary: Floods (Update 002):

Map: Estimated Individuals Displaced by Floods Per State, 

01 June - 12 August 2024

The Natural Disaster Displacement Summary compiles DTM updates on incidents of flood-induced displacement across Sudan. 

Between 01 June and 12 August 2024, DTM Sudan reported 60 incidents of heavy rains and floods that triggered sudden displacement in Sudan. Rains and floods have displaced an estimated 117,835 individuals (23,567 households) from locations across 12 different states in Sudan. 

This report outlines incidents of flood-induced displacement between 6 and 12 August 2024. For information on earlier reported incidents, see Natural Disaster Displacement Summary (Update 001). 

• DTM observed 31 incidents of flood-induced displacement  between 6 and 12 August 2024.  
• These reported incidents triggered the displacement of an estimated 96,465 individuals (19,293 households).  
• Approximately 32,611 structures were either partially damaged or destroyed by the rain and floods. 

Note: All figures should be understood as preliminary estimates, pending further verification. DTM Sudan will continue to provide updates on flood-induced displacement via Early Warning Flash alerts, distributed via the DTM-IOM Sudan mailing list.  For further information on displacement and mobility in Sudan, see Sudan Mobility Update (05). 

View original: https://dtm.iom.int/reports/natural-disaster-displacement-summary-floods-update-002

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DTM Sudan Flash Alert

Dated Sunday, 18 August 2024 - Update Two

Rains and Flooding in Al Fasher Locality, North Darfur

Between 12 and 17 August 2024, heavy rain and floods across Al Fasher locality, North Darfur reportedly displaced 867 households. The floods primarily affected Abu Shock IDP Camp of Al Fasher town and Zamzam IDP Camp of Zamzam town, Al Fasher locality. Field teams estimated that 867 houses were destroyed, and 1,389 houses and 1,028 latrines were partially damaged. Displaced households sought shelter with host communities within the same locality.

Note: The situation on the ground remains highly fluid. All figures should be understood as preliminary estimates only, pending further verification. DTM will continue to monitor the developments closely as network coverage permits and will provide regular updates on displacement and population mobility across Sudan. The latest DTM Sudan report is available here. DTM Sudan's Early Warning Flash Alerts provide immediate updates on incidents and sudden displacement in Sudan.

View original:

https://mailchi.mp/iom/dtm-sudan-flash-alert-rains-and-flooding-in-al-fasher-locality-north-darfur-update-002?e=fd4dda7f9b

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UN Security Council expressed "deep concern" over imminent attack on al-Fashir in Sudan's North Darfur

THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL on Saturday (27 Apr) expressed its "deep concern" over an imminent attack on al-Fashir in Sudan's North Darfur region by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and their allied militias against the city of al-Fashir.

“They called on the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces to end the build-up of military forces and to take steps to de-escalate the situation," the statement said.

Top UN officials warned the Security Council last week that some 800,000 people in al-Fashir were in "extreme and immediate danger" as worsening violence advances and threatens to "unleash bloody intercommunal strife throughout Darfur."

Source: Report from Reuters by Michelle Nichols; Writing by Eric Beech; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Chris Reese, dated 27 April 2024. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/un-security-council-concerned-over-imminent-attack-sudans-north-darfur-2024-04-27/

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Related

Gulf News - Saturday, 27 April 2024

Sudan unrest: UAE expresses deep concern over heightened tensions in North Darfur, urges talks

Abu Dhabi: The United Arab Emirates expresses deep concern over the heightened tensions in the El Fasher region in North Darfur and the threat this poses to Sudanese civilians. …

The UAE urges the UN Security Council to ensure an end to the conflict and to ensure safe and unhindered humanitarian access throughout Sudan. ...

https://gulfnews.com/uae/government/sudan-unrest-uae-expresses-deep-concern-over-heightened-tensions-in-north-darfur-urges-talks-1.1714227618888

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Post at X by Eric Reeves @sudanreeves Friday, 26 April 2024

“Sudan Country Focus”:
Security situation in selected areas and selected profiles affected by the conflict, April 2024 (European Union Agency for Asylum)
An extraordinarily detailed, deeply researched report on violence in Sudan through Jan ‘24https://t.co/cmVCXep5vL pic.twitter.com/uivfn0kr4e

— Eric Reeves (@sudanreeves) April 26, 2024

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Sudan: Displacement and recent clashes in North Darfur, Apr 01 - Apr 17 2024 & Apr 14 - Apr 16 2024

DTM Sudan Focused Flash Alert North Darfur, Apr 01 2024 - Apr 17 2024:

DISPLACEMENT AND RECENT CLASHES IN NORTH DARFUR 

Since 01 April 2024, DTM Sudan monitored several clashes in multiple locations across Al Fasher locality in North Darfur state.

Clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) renewed across Al Fasher Town of Al Fasher locality, Kebkabiya Town of Kebkabiya locality, and Kutum Town of Kutum locality on 01 April 2024, displacing an estimated 500 individuals (100  households).

In addition, DTM monitored attacks on Korma, Jonjona and Sarafaya villages linked to tribal conflict between 02 and 04 April 2024. The attacks led to the displacement of approximately 3,815 individuals (763 households) across various locations in Al Fasher locality.

Field teams observed additional clashes due to tribal conflict on 13 April 2024 in Birka, Sarafaya, Hillat Khamis, Jakho I, and Jartouna villages across Al Fasher locality, North Darfur. The clashes reportedly displaced approximately 34,350 individuals (6,870 households). Affected households were primarily displaced to other locations within Al Fasher locality. Field teams noted that an estimated 9,500 individuals (1,900 households) displaced from Jakho I village were originally displaced from Tawila locality in mid-June 2023 and therefore experienced secondary displacement due to the recent clashes.

Finally, field teams observed additional clashes between SAF and RSF in Al Fasher town from 14 April to 16 April 2024. The clashes reportedly displaced approximately 1,950 individuals (390 households) across Al Fasher locality. Households were displaced primarily from northern and eastern neighbourhoods of Al Fasher Town.

An estimated total of 40,615 individuals (approximately 8,123 households) were displaced in Al Fasher locality, North Darfur between 1 and 16 April 2024 due to the clashes described above, as noted in corresponding DTM Early Warning Flash alerts.

Map 1: Location of Reported Clashes and Resulting Displacement, 01 April -18 April 2024

BROADER CONTEXT 

While North Darfur remained an epicenter of clashes since the outbreak of conflict on 15 April 2023, field teams observed a sharp escalation of clashes and displacement beginning in January 2024. Since 01 January 2024, DTM released 17 Early Warning Flash Alerts focused on Al Fasher locality, representing over 60 per cent of the total flash alerts pertaining to Al Fasher locality since the eruption of conflict on 15 April 2023.

In January 2024, clashes were observed across Al Fasher, Kutum, and Melit localities. Field teams reported four incidents in Al Fasher and one in Um Kadadah in February 2024, and three incidents in Al Fasher and two incidents across Al Fasher, Kebkabiya, and Kutum localities during March 2024. Notably, the majority (69%) of DTM Early Warning Flash Alerts pertaining to conflict and displacement in North Darfur state focused on Al Fasher locality specifically.

DISPLACEMENT DATA IN NORTH DARFUR 

As of 17 April 2024, North Darfur state hosted an estimated 570,183 IDPs. over one third (approximately 36%, or 204,438 IDPs) were reportedly hosted in Al Fasher locality.

In addition, approximately 606,673 IDPs originated from North Darfur state, representing nine per cent of the total population of IDPs displaced in Sudan since 15 April 2023. Approximately 87 per cent of IDPs in North Darfur were displaced from locations within North Darfur. An estimated 235,147 IDPs originated from Al Fasher locality specifically.

Source:  DTM Sudan Focused Flash Alert: Conflict in North Darfur State  

23 April 2024 Update One

Map 2: Reported Displacement in North Darfur state, as of 17 April 2024

Full story: 

DTM Sudan Focused Flash Alert North Darfur, Apr 01 2024 - Apr 17 2024

https://dtm.iom.int/reports/dtm-sudan-focused-flash-alert-north-darfur

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Sudan: SAF & RSF clashes in Al Fasher, North Darfur displaces some people from Abu Shouk and As Salam

DTM (Displacement Tracking Matrix) Sudan Flash Alert - Update Sixteen
Dated Friday, 01 March 2024 - here is a copy:

Conflict in Al Fasher (Al Fasher Town), North Darfur

On 29 February 2024, clashes renewed between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Al Fasher Town of Al Fasher locality, North Darfur. As a result, field teams reported displacement from Abu Shock and As Salam IDP Camps to western neighbourhoods within Al Fasher Town. Estimates on the number of displaced individuals are yet to be provided by the field teams. In addition, one child was reportedly injured. The situation remains tense and unpredictable. 

Disclaimer: Due to the current circumstances, the DTM network is relying on remote interviews with key informants and further verification is not possible at this time.

*DTM Sudan Flash Alerts provide an initial estimation of affected population figures gathered from field reports. All information is therefore pending verification through DTM’s Emergency Event Tracking (EET) and/or registration activities and is not to be used as official figures.

Source: VIEW IN BROWSER

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Related

Sudan Watch - February 25, 2024

Sudan: SAF & RSF clashes in Al Fasher, North Darfur

On 23 and 24 February 2024, clashes renewed between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Al Fasher Town of Al Fasher locality, North Darfur. 

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/sudan-saf-rsf-clashes-in-al-fasher.html

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