Sudan: Thousands could die as the RSF Janjaweed militia close in on North Darfur's capital city Al-Fashir

SOME 800,000 in North Darfur's capital city Al-Fashir have no escape route from incoming attacks by Hemeti's Rapid Support Forces' Janjaweed militia as violence in Sudan spreads. Al-Fashir is the last major city in the huge western Darfur region not yet under control of the RSF which has taken control of four other Darfur state capitals over the past year. 700,000 IDPs fled to camps in Al-Fashir to escape violence in other regions. Read more.

From The New Arab (London) www.newarab.com
Dated Friday, 26 April, 2024 - here is a copy of its report in full:

Thousands could die as Rapid Support Forces close in Al-Fashir in Sudan's Darfur province

Some 800,000 people inside Al-Fashir city have no escape route from incoming attacks by the Rapid Support Forces' Janjaweed as violence in Sudan spreads.

Photo: Rival military groups have uprooted millions in Sudan and left the country in a dangerous humanitarian crisis [Getty]

The capital of the Sudanese state North Darfur is facing an imminent catastrophe that is threatening some 800,000 people, as the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) closes in on the last stronghold of rival Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) following weeks of battles.

Sudanese activists and international researchers warned on Thursday that the city of Al-Fashir is "about to be under siege" as the RSF gains ground in the surrounding province, terrorising villages and conducting intense bombing campaigns against the Sudanese army.

RSF is attempting to gain control of the city from the SAF and have begun closing in with its troops preparing for a full-scale invasion, according to researchers.

Al-Fashir is the last major city in the huge western Darfur region not yet under the control of the RSF which has taken control of four other Darfur state capitals over the past year. Some 700,000 internally displaced people fled to camps in Al-Fashir having escaped violence in other regions.

The latest round of violence began in the African country in April 2023 and snowballed into a civil war when long-simmering tensions between the military, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, and the RSF paramilitary commanded by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, broke out into street battles in the capital, Khartoum.

The RSF has been blamed for mass killings of civilians - which are often ethnically driven - and numerous human rights violation, including terrifying levels of sexual violence.

The war has uprooted swathes of the population and humanitarian workers have described the conditions as among the worst in the world.

The UN said that some 20 million people in Sudan are struggling to find enough food to eat and that famine is now widespread.

Last week, UN officials warned the Security Council that 800,000 people in Al-Fashir were in "extreme and immediate danger" as fighting was moving closer. 

[HERE is a copy of a post at X by Radio Dabanga English 5:42PM April 25, 2024: "Refugees International warns of imminent #RSF attacks on #El Fasher in #NorthDarfur, home to 800,000 civilians. Immediate action needed #SudanNews #KeepEyesOnSudan #sudan_war_updates"]

Refugees International warns of imminent #RSF attacks on #El Fasher in #NorthDarfur, home to 800,000 civilians. Immediate action needed #SudanNews #KeepEyesOnSudan #sudan_war_updates https://t.co/ZheRag22iH

— Radio Dabanga (@RadioDabanga) April 25, 2024

There are fears fighting in the city could trigger inter-communal violence throughout the Darfur province which surfaced during conflicts in the 2000s, and could spill into neighbouring Chad.

Adam Mousa, director of Darfur Victims Support and Sudan Defenders, said that in April the RSF and aligned Arab militias fought with the Sudanese army and attacked 15 villages in the east of Darfur, forcing thousands to flee to al-Shagra town and the Zamzam displacement camp in Al-Fashir.

"Most of the displaced have no water, food or medicine, and at the same time the attacks are continuing," Mousa said during an online media briefing on Thursday which included activists, Sudanese civilians, researchers, and aid workers.

Mousa, who is from Darfur, said his organisation has requested to begin a ceasefire initiative and sent letters to SAF and RSF and are "waiting for a response".

Some eleven villages there have been burnt in recent days, according to Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health.

It has been challenging for journalists and humanitarians to gain on the ground access since the outbreak of war and as a result, observers have been relying on open-source intelligence to track the conflict.

Raymond's Humanitarian Research Lab has been closely documenting the RSF and SAF movements using open-source data and satellite imagery, and last week sounded the alarm to the international community about RSF’s imminent attack on Al-Fashir.

"We have a city about to be under siege," Raymond said.

RSF fighters are about eight kilometres from the main SAF infantry base and open-source reports and imagery collected in the past day shows RSF fighters moving on the city from multiple directions, Raymond explained.

"The situation for those in Al-Fashir will likely get significantly worse in the coming hours and days," he said.

"At this point, civilians and the Sudan Armed Forces do not have a clear escape route to exit Al Fashir. We call this phenomenon, in our business, a kill box.

"The space for intervention is probably gone," he added.

Raymond fears that if the RSF behave in line with the mass atrocities conducted over the past year, the number of casualties in the region could exceed the 110,000 deaths of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

It is estimated that some 14,000 people have been killed in the war since last April, though some projections are far larger.

The RSF, which is formed of Janjaweed fighters aligned with former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, have conducted ruthless campaigns against civilians and there are fears they will conduct massacres in Al-Fashir.

There have been widespread human rights violations documented by RSF fighters, including cases of sexual violence against women and girls.

Allegations of rape, forced marriage, sex trafficking in Khartoum, Darfur and Kordofan have been recorded. Rights groups say the truce scale of the crisis remains unknown due to underreporting and fear of reprisals.

Some 1.1 million people are internally displaced in Sudan while more than 3 million are refugees in neighbouring Chad, Eritrea and Egypt, according to figures from the UN refugee agency.

Hala Al-Karib, Sudan Regional Director of the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa, said that the anticipated invasion of Al-Fashir has been a "ticking time bomb" considering the number of local militias present in the city.

She said the city has been an important hub for activists and human rights defenders and hosts many displaced families. The only hospital in Sudan for survivors of sexual violence is in the city, Al-Karib said.

The war has taken a spiral in recent months due to foreign interference, which observers say has prolonged the conflict and fuelled new levels of danger.

RSF's leader is reportedly receiving support from Russian mercenaries and allied Arab communities coming from the Horn of Africa, as well as Libya.

US officials recently said the UAE was providing financial and military support to RSF, which has been accused of committing crimes against humanity. Iran and Egypt are believed to be supporting Sudan's army with military drones.

Earlier this month, France hosted a donor aid conference to mark one year since the outbreak of war and garner much needed attention to the humanitarian disaster.

Western officials  are seeking an end to the fighting through diplomacy, but critics say it has done little to defuse the violence.

View original: https://www.newarab.com/news/mass-casualties-feared-rsf-encircles-sudans-al-fashir

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Related

Sudan Watch - February 28, 2020 

Sudan: RSF to turn Zurrug, N Darfur into a dream city

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2023/10/sudan-rsf-to-turn-zurrug-n-darfur-into.html

Sudan Watch - March 02, 2024

Sudan: In Zamzam camp, North Darfur, the death rate is catastrophic. At least 1 child dies every 2 hours

Malnutrition and disease are rife at the ‘overwhelmed’ Zamzam camp, a host to 300,000 internally displaced people, one of hundreds in Sudan, where war has displaced nearly 8 million people. The scale is simply terrifying. Zamzam is just one camp. There are hundreds of others in Sudan. 

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/03/sudan-in-zamzam-camp-north-darfur-death.html

Sudan Watch - March 13, 2024

Sudan: 3.9M people food insecure in Khartoum state. 

Khartoum's partly a ghost town, only 20-30% remain

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/03/sudan-39m-people-food-insecure-in.html

Sudan Watch - March 14, 2024

South Sudan Bishop Eduardo Hiiboro Kussala: Our people ‘on brink of destitution, slowly perishing’

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/03/south-sudan-bishop-eduardo-hiiboro.html

Sudan Watch - March 17, 2024

Ali Karti, SG of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, widely seen as a mastermind of Sudan's war, has now announced a truce with RSF will never be accepted

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/03/ali-karti-sg-of-sudans-islamic-movement.html

Sudan Watch - March 29, 2024

UK CHANNEL 4 NEWS VIDEO FROM CHAD-SUDAN. 

UK doubles its aid to Sudan to £89m as crisis escalates

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/03/uk-channel-4-news-video-from-chad-sudan.html

Sudan Watch - April 06, 2024

SAVE SUDAN. STOP WAR IN SUDAN. 

Tagadum coalition unveils vision to end war and rebuild state

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/04/save-sudan-stop-war-in-sudan-tagadum.html

Sudan Watch - April 21, 2024

VIDEO & TRANSCRIPT: 

Situation in Sudan ‘probably the most disastrous in the world’ says ex-PM Hamdok

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/04/video-transcript-situation-in-sudan.html

Sudan Watch - April 22, 2024

Sudan: SpaceX to shut off Starlink access for users outside availability areas by 30 April 2024

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/04/sudan-spacex-to-shut-off-starlink.html

Sudan Watch - April 24, 2024

Sudan: Displacement and recent clashes in North Darfur, Apr 01 - Apr 17 2024 & Apr 14 - Apr 16 2024

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/04/sudan-displacement-and-recent-clashes.html

CSIS - April 25, 2024

By Cameron Hudson 

Preventing Another Darfur Genocide

https://www.csis.org/analysis/preventing-another-darfur-genocide

Radio Dabanga - April 25, 2024

Int’l NGO: ‘UNSC needs to urgently intervene in North Darfur’

Refugees International, a prominent INGO, issued a grave warning on Tuesday indicating that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are about to launch imminent attacks on the city of El Fasher, North Darfur, home to 800,000 civilians, which requires urgent action.

https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/intl-ngo-unsc-needs-to-urgently-intervene-in-north-darfur

END

Ali Karti, SG of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, widely seen as a mastermind of Sudan's war, has now announced a truce with RSF will never be accepted

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Dame Rosalind Marsden in the following analysis 'Sudan's forgotten war: A new diplomatic push is needed' says there needs to be a concerted diplomatic push at the highest level: "the aim must be to change the calculations of the generals and counter the influence of hard-line Islamists from the Bashir-era who are blocking negotiations. This requires pressing for a coordinated mediation process to prevent warring parties’ forum-shopping between mediation initiatives; targeting the financial flows and military supplies fuelling the war; and supporting efforts to unify those Sudanese working for the goal of democratic transition."

It is difficult to see why Dame Rosalind is recommending "a coordinated mediation process" as even she says "Ali Karti, the Secretary-General of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, who is widely seen as a mastermind of the war, has now announced that a truce with the RSF will never be accepted." 

Many Sudanese civilians online are saying they don't want Sudan to be led by Gen. Burhan and his Islamist regime nor by Hemeti and his terrorist militia. I've not seen a solution. Maybe the people could join hands in peace.

Note, in her analysis Dame Rosalind rightly publicises the Emergency Response Rooms, aka ERRs, by saying: "Donors will also have to step up to address the spiralling food crisis, by reducing the UN funding gap and supporting grassroots first responders in the Emergency Response Rooms.' 

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From Chatham House

EXPERT COMMENT
By Dame Rosalind Marsden

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme 

Email Rosalind  Twitter

Dated Thursday, 14 March 2024 - here is a copy in full:

Sudan’s forgotten war: A new diplomatic push is needed

After nearly a year of devastating conflict, there is little sign of a ceasefire. Concerted high-level international pressure is needed to change the calculations of the generals and support a democratic transition.

Image — People rally in Wad Madani, Sudan, in December 2023. 

(Photo by AFP via Getty Images)

On 8 March, the UN Security Council adopted a UK-drafted resolution calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the month of Ramadan, a sustainable resolution to the conflict through dialogue, compliance with international humanitarian law and unhindered humanitarian access.

Eleven months into the war, this is the first time that the Council has been able to agree on a resolution. The mandate of the UN Panel of Experts that monitors the sanctions regime in Darfur was also renewed by the Council. Does this signify hope that efforts to end the war might gather momentum? Or is Sudan likely to face a protracted conflict?

The war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fatah Al Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as ‘Hemedti’) is a competition for power and resources between rival factions of the regular armed forces.

But it is also rooted in Sudan’s long history of internal conflict, marginalization of the peripheries and lack of accountability for atrocity crimes. Both the SAF’s officer corps and the RSF are creations of former President Omer al-Bashir’s regime. 

Each has shown disregard for the lives of Sudanese civilians by waging war in densely populated urban areas. The scale of destruction is unprecedented in Sudan’s modern history.

With the world’s attention focused on Gaza and Ukraine, the war receives woefully little high-level political, parliamentary or international media attention, raising serious questions about double standards in dealing with global crises, particularly conflicts in Africa.

A humanitarian catastrophe

Sudan is suffering from a humanitarian disaster, with a looming famine and the world’s biggest displacement crisis: 8 million people are newly displaced inside or outside the country, in addition to over 3 million displaced by previous conflicts.

The head of the World Food Programme has warned that the war risks creating the world’s largest hunger crisis. Yet the UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan for Sudan is only 4 per cent funded.

The conflict has the potential to destabilize already fragile neighbouring countries, create large new migration flows to Europe, and attract extremist groups.

Meanwhile, regional actors are fighting a proxy war in the country, giving military, financial and political support to the warring parties. 

The involvement of Russia and Iran has given the war a geopolitical dimension linked to Putin’s war in Ukraine – partly funded with Sudanese gold – and competition for influence on the Red Sea coast.

Food as a weapon of war

Both RSF and SAF forces have used hunger as a weapon of war. The RSF has looted humanitarian warehouses and besieged cities. 

The SAF-controlled Humanitarian Aid Commission has systematically withheld authorization for crossline movement of life-saving aid to RSF-controlled areas.

One limited outcome from recent international pressure has been the partial reversal of the SAF’s ban on cross-border humanitarian access from Chad into Darfur. The de facto SAF authorities in Port Sudan have agreed to open limited border crossings from Chad and South Sudan. However, MSF International have criticized this as a partial solution at best.

The UN will need to monitor implementation to ensure neutrality in the distribution of aid, while intensifying pressure for unhindered cross-border and crossline humanitarian access.

Donors will also have to step up to address the spiralling food crisis, by reducing the UN funding gap and supporting grassroots first responders in the Emergency Response Rooms.

Growing pressure for a cessation of hostilities

The fact that the UN Secretary-General, the UN Security Council, the African Union, and the League of Arab States joined forces to call for a Ramadan truce, represents a significant increase in pressure on the warring parties.

Nevertheless, Ramadan has started with further fierce fighting. It is unclear how the Security Council expected a truce to take effect without prior diplomatic engagement to agree an implementation and monitoring mechanism. 

Command and control is fragmented on both sides and the warring parties have failed to abide by previous temporary truces negotiated through the Saudi/US-sponsored Jeddah Platform.

Moreover, Sudan’s security state has no history of respecting the month of Ramadan: the current war began during the holy month on 15 April 2023, and peaceful protestors were brutally dispersed in Khartoum on 3 June 2019.

Burhan cautiously commended the Secretary-General’s proposal for a Ramadan truce, but the Islamist-controlled Ministry of Foreign Affairs and SAF’s General Yasir al Atta poured cold water on the idea by announcing a list of preconditions amounting to surrender by the RSF.

8 million

Number of newly displaced people as a result of the war in Sudan.

This response follows a familiar pattern: any indication by Burhan of readiness to negotiate is immediately negated by Islamist elements of the Bashir regime, who hope to return to power on the back of an SAF victory. 

Ali Karti, the Secretary-General of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, who is widely seen as a mastermind of the war, has now announced that a truce with the RSF will never be accepted.

Both sides still seem determined to gain the upper hand militarily. The SAF, hitherto on the back foot, has launched an offensive to regain lost territory in Omdurman and Gezira state, supported by Iranian drones, Islamist militias, the Special Operations Forces of the Bashir-era Intelligence Service, former Darfuri rebels and armed civilians. 

The RSF, whose human rights violations have alienated much of the population, welcomed the UN’s call for a truce, but are also engaged in recruitment, particularly among Arab tribes in Darfur.

The longer the war continues, the greater the risk that it will evolve into a full-scale ethnicized civil war, and that the country will be engulfed by famine.

A concerted diplomatic push

Concerted diplomacy at the highest level is therefore urgently needed. The aim must be to change the calculations of the generals and counter the influence of hard-line Islamists from the Bashir-era who are blocking negotiations.

This requires pressing for a coordinated mediation process to prevent warring parties’ forum-shopping between mediation initiatives; targeting the financial flows and military supplies fuelling the war; and supporting efforts to unify those Sudanese working for the goal of democratic transition.

Civilians are the main victims of the war and should be involved in each stage of any peace process. They, not the generals, should shape Sudan’s post-war transition. Those responsible for atrocities must be held accountable.  

There has been some recent evolution in regional dynamics. Egypt and the UAE, who have been backing opposite sides, co-facilitated RSF/SAF talks in Manama in January, alongside the US, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

There are also signs of a stronger international commitment to active diplomatic engagement. The AU has created a High-Level Panel on Sudan, while the US has appointed a dedicated Special Envoy. The Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General has been empowered by the Security Council to complement and coordinate regional peace efforts.

But a strong push is now needed to silence the guns and push the warring parties to resume talks under the Jeddah Platform, preferably in an expanded format. More visible, high-level political commitment is badly needed, if the conflict in Sudan is not to remain a forgotten war.

This article was produced with support from the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme, funded by UK International Development. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.

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Postscript from Sudan Watch Editor:

Dame Rosalind Marsden was the EU Special Representative for Sudan from September 2010 until October 2013. Before joining the EU, she had a long career in the British diplomatic service, including postings as Consul-General in Basra, British Ambassador to Sudan and British Ambassador to Afghanistan. 

She has also served as Head of the United Nations Department and Director (Asia-Pacific) in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London. 

Earlier in her career she served twice in the British Embassy in Tokyo and spent two years on secondment to the private sector, working in the corporate finance department of an investment bank. 

She received her BA in Modern History from Somerville College, Oxford and her D.Phil from St Antony’s College, Oxford.

View original: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/sudans-forgotten-war-new-diplomatic-push-needed

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Related 

Chatham House - 18 December 2023 

How a transnational approach can better manage the conflict in Sudan

Approaching conflict as a national issue sidelines a complex web of transnational influences and threatens prospects for sustainable peace.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/12/how-transnational-approach-can-better-manage-conflict-sudan

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UN News - 3 February 2024

Youth-led ‘emergency rooms’ shine rays of hope in war-torn Sudan

© ERR Emergency response rooms are finding innovative approaches to providing rapid assistance to millions facing war in Sudan. 

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/02/1146187

END