Sudan: RSF aren't just at war with SAF, they're at war with civilians. People think SAF can’t protect them

“The calls to get armed are not coming from the army. They’re mostly coming from civilians themselves,“ al-Sadig, told Al Jazeera. Sulieman Baldo, the founder of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker think tank, believes arming young men is irresponsible. “For me, these young recruits are really cannon fodder for ideological reasons,” he told Al Jazeera. “Sudan’s [political] Islamic movement is pushing for this kind of mobilisation in areas that are beyond the RSF’s control.” Read more.

Report from Al Jazeera
By Mat Nashed
Dated Sunday, 24 December 2023 - here is a copy in full:

Sudan’s civilians pick up arms, as RSF gains and army stumbles

Young men are grabbing weapons to fight with the army, defend their cities, raising fears of deepening ethnic conflict.

Sudanese military soldiers wave the Sudanese flag and hold up their weapons during the visit of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir (not seen) in Heglig on April 23, 2012 [Reuters]

When the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) called on young men to enlist last June, Zakariya Issa* went to the nearest recruitment centre. He was one of thousands of young people who trained for 10 weeks in Wad Madani, a city just south of the capital Khartoum.

In September, he was deployed with 500 people to fight the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a group stronger than the army and backed by the United Arab Emirates. Many of his friends and peers were killed or wounded within a couple of weeks.

“I lost five of my friends,” Issa, 20, told Al Jazeera from Saudi Arabia, where he now lives. “They were more than friends. They were my brothers.”

The Sudanese army and allied groups are relying on young men with little or no military training to fight as foot soldiers against the RSF. Over the past week, recruitment has picked up across River Nile State since the RSF captured Wad Madani, Sudan’s second-largest city.

River Nile state is a traditionally privileged region that has produced many of the political and military elites in Sudan’s modern history. But now, army officers and figures from Sudan’s political Islamic movement, which ruled for 30 years under former autocratic president Omar al-Bashir, are calling on young men from this region to thwart the RSF.

New recruits told Al Jazeera that they are motivated to pick up weapons due to the risk that the RSF could attack their cities, loot their belongings and subject women to sexual violence.

Most view the RSF – which is primarily made up of tribal nomadic fighters from Sudan’s neglected province of Darfur – as invaders and occupiers. While the group has evicted thousands of people from their homes, army supporters are also exploiting ethnic undertones to recruit young men.

“I picked up a gun to defend myself, my ethnic group and my homeland,” said Yaser, 21, from Shendi, a city in River Nile State where thousands of people have reportedly picked up weapons in recent days.

“The RSF are not just at war with the army. They are at war with civilians,” he told Al Jazeera.

‘Cannon fodder’: Civilians arming themselves

After Wad Madani fell to the RSF, civilians across eastern and northern Sudan were devastated. The city was a haven for internally displaced people who fled Khartoum and surrounding towns earlier in the war. They are now on the move again.

“People mostly think that the army can’t protect them now,” said Suleiman al-Sadig,* a lawyer from Atbara, a city in River Nile State.

Recent RSF advances have compounded the panic. Photos and videos surfacing across social media show what appear to be children and young men arming themselves in River Nile State. According to residents and journalists, some of those recruits have gone to Wad Madani to fight the RSF, while others are staying behind in case of an attack.

The video from Al Matama shows SAF commanders arming kids/teens. At least they look like kids to me. This is both insane and negligent on so many levels. #KeepEyesOnSudan pic.twitter.com/JelIxVwdT6

— s🌻 (@justshayxo) December 21, 2023

“The calls to get armed are not coming from the army. They’re mostly coming from civilians themselves,“ al-Sadig, told Al Jazeera.

Sulieman Baldo, the founder of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker think tank, believes arming young men is irresponsible.

“For me, these young recruits are really cannon fodder for ideological reasons,” he told Al Jazeera. 

“Sudan’s [political] Islamic movement is pushing for this kind of mobilisation in areas that are beyond the RSF’s control.”

In one photo on social media, which Al Jazeera could not independently verify, one of the young recruits is seen captured by the RSF and tied to the windshield of a car.

A former soldier, who is in close contact with officers in the army, added that new recruits are often the first people to die in battle.

“They have no combat or military background and they just carry weapons. They die quickly,” he told Al Jazeera.

Ethnic targeting

Over the last two decades, River Nile State has attracted many young men from Arab and non-Arab tribes in search of work and stability. Many were uprooted by the state-backed Arab tribal militias – later repackaged as the RSF – which crushed a mostly non-Arab rebellion in Darfur in 2003.

These young men are now being accused of spying on behalf of the RSF based on their ethnicity and tribal affiliations. According to local monitors, many have been arrested, tortured and even killed by military intelligence and by civilians carrying arms in northeastern cities.

On December 19, Zeinab Noon* spoke with her male cousins who are all between the ages of 16 and 20. They told her that they captured RSF spies in Shendi.

“[They said] they’re torturing them, so there is a sense of paranoia,” Noon, who lives outside of Sudan, told Al Jazeera. “I don’t think they know [for sure if they’re really spies].”

The Darfur Network for Human Rights (DNHR), a local monitoring group, said in a statement that these attacks are “linked to incitement to ethnic violence” in River Nile cities.

Jawhara Kanu, a Sudanese expert with the United States Institute for Peace, said that the ethnically targeted attacks risk pushing vulnerable people from Darfur and Kordofan, a province in central Sudan, into the arms of the RSF.

“These people are going to find themselves in a situation where they are going to be tortured [by parties aligned] with SAF unless they choose to join the RSF for protection.”

Ending the war

Despite growing calls to bear arms, some activists are pushing for an end to the war and for young men not to fight. So far, their efforts appear to be in vain, according to al-Sadig from Atbara.

He said that there was a protest held in his city on December 23. Young men were demanding that the governor arm them, so that they could defend their city and join the army in battles across the country.

RSF abuses in Wad Madani are also fuelling calls for mobilisation. More than 300,000 people are fleeing the city, mostly on foot. RSF fighters are also reportedly looting cars, hospitals, homes and markets, adding to a hunger crisis.

In one video circulating on social media and which Al Jazeera could not independently verify, an RSF fighter declares that it is “his right” to rape women in cities he conquers.

Al-Sadig says that news of abuses travels wide and is terrifying civilians in the River Nile region.

“Every single day, young men are being told by people in their community that the RSF is going to come and get you and that they will take your homes, kill your children and rape your women,” he told Al Jazeera.

Non-violent activists like al-Sadig hope that the war will stop soon. On December 22, local media reported that top army chief Abdel Fatah al-Burhan had agreed to sit down with RSF leader Mohamad Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo.

While an agreement could spare Sudan further bloodshed, al-Sadig is waiting to see where the RSF attacks next. He told Al Jazeera that he will pick up a weapon if he has to.

“I don’t want to pick up arms. But if the RSF targets my home, or my children or my wife, then of course I will defend them,” he said.

*Some names have been changed for safety reasons. 

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

View original: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/24/sudans-civilians-pick-up-arms-as-rsf-gains-and-army-stumbles

ENDS

URGENT FROM ALEX DE WAAL - Sudan crisis: Mediators over a barrel in mission to end fighting

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Here is Alex de Waal’s latest take on the current Sudan crisis. Fortunately, it was published yesterday in the form of a carefully worded piece for BBC News. See copy below. 

As usual, it didn't disappoint. I had to read it six times to see if there was any wiggle room in the stance he has taken. There is none, it is crystal clear with no way of misunderstanding this: speed is of the essence.

While reading it, I agreed with every word but my heart sank at not seeing anything that was news to me.

The overall message he conveys in his analysis, without appearing to be dramatic, is the urgent need for speed: that there's no time left to lose on haggling for peace. We're talking hours and days, not weeks.

Also, he didn’t mention justice or for Messrs Burhan and Hemeti to be called to account for their crimes. It seems to me that Alex's advice to the current mediators is this: appease them, agree amnesty for war crimes.

So, after giving it much thought, and it pains me to say this, one side will have to be backed in order to give Sudanese civilians a chance to run their country and army, which means backing Mr Burhan and SAF.

Rewarding Hemeti, treating him as a victor would make the Janjaweed victorious. Unthinkable. He must not have any role leading any part of Sudan or South Sudan. Retire him to Chad where he was born, or to the ICC. 

Over the past 20 years here at Sudan Watch, I've argued strongly in favour of the African Union, for Africa be governed by Africa-led solutions and initiatives, for it to be empowered and lead without outside interference and to be given a seat on the UN Security Council.

Please God stop the fighting, let the world unite in supporting Sudan and South Sudan by providing them with what they need, humanitarian assistance and access to aid until they can stand on their own feet. 

And let them decide what to do with the RSF. Hopefully, Hemeti will disappear peaceably, forever. 

Wish I had time to write a better intro instead of this half-baked draft but as Alex shows in his heavy-duty not light-weight piece, if one reads it carefully: there is not a minute to waste. Seriously. Every minute counts.

______________________________

Report from BBC News

By ALEX DE WAAL

Dated Monday 08 May 2023 - full copy:

Sudan crisis: Mediators over a barrel in mission to end fighting

AFP

With the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, transformed from tranquil city to war zone, Saudi Arabia and the US have called the warring parties to Jeddah to seek agreement on a ceasefire. But as Sudan expert Alex de Waal says, it will just be a short-term, emergency step.

______________________________

There is a dilemma for mediators: whatever decision they take on the format and agenda for emergency talks will determine the path of peace-making in Sudan through to its conclusion.

To silence the guns, the American and Saudi diplomats will deal only with the rival generals who have each sent a three-person negotiating team to Jeddah. 

The agenda is a humanitarian ceasefire, a monitoring mechanism and corridors for aid. Neither side wants to open negotiations towards a political agreement.

The civilian parties and neighbourhood resistance committees, whose non-violent protests brought down the authoritarian regime of long-time leader Omar al-Bashir four years ago, will be onlookers.

It will not be easy to get the two generals to agree to any kind of ceasefire.

The army chief, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, will insist that he represents the legitimate government. He will label Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as "Hemedti", as a rebel.

But Hemedti, his de facto deputy until the clashes, will demand equal status for the two sides.

He will want on a freeze-in-place, leaving his paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters in control of much of Khartoum. Gen Burhan will require a return to the positions in the days before the clashes began.

Getting a compromise means hard bargaining with the generals. 

The mediators need to gain their confidence and assure them that, if they make concessions now, that will not leave them exposed and vulnerable.

The downside is that the two warring parties will then demand the dominant role in political talks and an agenda that suits their interests.

One thing on which Burhan and Hemedti - and the Arab neighbours - agree is that they do not want a democratic government, which had been on the cards before the fighting began. The two military men had run the country since the 2019 which ousted Bashir, refusing to hand power to civilians.

AFP

The real losers are the civilians who helped oust Bashir in 2019 and want elections and a democratic government

Another point of agreement will be amnesty for war crimes.

Negotiations dominated by the generals are likely to end in a peace agreement in which they share the spoils, setting back the prospects for democracy for many more years.

But if the fighting is not stopped soon, Sudan faces state collapse.

Abdalla Hamdok - prime minister of the joint military-civilian government ousted by the generals in 2021 - has said the country's new war threatened to be worse than Syria or Yemen. 

He might have added, worse than Darfur.

Frontline reinforcements

There is a grim predictability about how Sudan's civil wars unfold.

In the opening days, the military commanders - army generals and rebel leaders - are driven by an angry resolve to land a knockout blow on the other side.

Combat is fierce as each side focuses its attacks, and it is easy to identify who is on which side - and who is staying neutral.

AFP

The RSF has its roots in Darfur where some fighters are alleged to have been involved in what the International Criminal Court considers a genocide

We saw this when the Sudanese civil war broke out in 1983, again in Darfur 20 years later, and in the conflicts in Abyei, Heglig and the Nuba Mountains close to the north-south border at the time when South Sudan separated in 2011.

The first clashes in South Sudan's own civil war in 2013 also looked like this.

On 15 April, when fighting erupted between the army and the RSF, each side vowed to destroy the other.

They concentrated their firepower on each other's strategic positions in the capital, regardless of the massive destruction inflicted on the city and its residents.

Past wars show that if the fighting is not quickly halted, it escalates.

Each side brings reinforcements to the frontline, bids to win over local armed groups that are not yet involved, and solicits help from friendly foreign backers. 

We are in that phase now.

The regular conflict script tells us the adversaries will not be able to sustain their cohesion for long. They will run low on weapons, logistics and money, and cut deals to get more.

The fissures within each fighting coalition will begin to show. Other armed groups will join the fray.

Local communities will arm themselves for self-defence. Outsiders will become entangled. 

All of this is already happening. It is most advanced in Darfur, Hemedti's homeland, which is in flames again.

Up to now, we have not seen civilians being systematically targeted because of their ethnic identity.

But that is a major risk, and as soon as fighters on one side commit mass atrocities, the antagonism will escalate.

The next stage would be conflict spreading across the country, igniting local disputes as it goes.

Armed groups will fragment and coalesce, fighting for control over the lucrative locations such as roads, airports, gold mines and aid distribution centres. 

In Darfur, after the fierce battles and massacres of 2003-04, the region collapsed into anarchy.

The head of the joint African Union-United Nations mission called it "a war of all against all".

This was the lawless political marketplace in which Hemedti thrived, using cash and violence to build a power base.

There is an all-too-real scenario in which the whole of Sudan comes to resemble Darfur.

'Abandoned in moment of need'

The US and Saudi mediators are high-level and even-handed. Unlike other Arab neighbours - Egypt backs Burhan and the United Arab Emirates has ties to Hemedti - Riyadh does not have a favourite. 

The US is threatening sanctions. That is unlikely to deter the generals - Sudan has been under American sanctions since 1989, and military-owned businesses thrived nonetheless. 

GETTY IMAGES

The one thing Gen Burhan (R) and Hemedti (L) are likely to agree about is that neither wants a civilian government

Effective pressure needs international consensus. Everyone - including China and Russia - agrees that the fighting is a disaster.

Protocol at the UN puts the responsibility on its African members to raise the issue at the Security Council. 

Up to now, they have not acted, and the African Union has not even convened its Peace and Security Council.

In the meantime, every passing day risks the war becoming intractable.

Silencing the guns today is a hard-enough task. It would be far harder if there were dozens of fissile armed groups claiming a seat at the table.

What is unprecedented about today's armed conflict is that the battleground is in Khartoum. 

It is generating a humanitarian crisis quite different to the rural displacement and hunger that the country's aid workers have dealt with over the decades.

Civilians trapped in urban neighbourhoods may benefit from old-style food convoys, but they also need utilities - electricity, water, and telecoms. And they desperately need cash. 

With the central bank burned and local commercial bank branches closed, some people rely on mobile phone banking services. Others are penniless.

With the UN and most foreign aid workers evacuated, local resistance committees have stepped into the vacuum, organising essential aid and safe passage for civilians to escape. 

REUTERS

Civilians have become trapped in urban neighbourhoods with truces failing to hold

Many Sudanese feel that the international community abandoned them in their moment of need, and ask that such local, civilian efforts become the lynchpin of an aid effort.

There is a danger that hunger will become a weapon of war, and aid will be a resource manipulated by warlords.

Aid agencies will need to find ways to bypass them and directly help civilians.

There are no simple solutions to Sudan's escalating war. The situation may yet get much worse before it gets better.

And it is likely that whatever decisions are taken in the ceasefire talks - who is represented, on what terms, and with what agenda - will shape the country's future for years to come.

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US.

______________________________

View original: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65495539

[Ends]

Nomads Abyei Sudan Security Situation - Misseriya and Rizeigat tribes fighting in Kass region NW of Nyala, S. Darfur

YESTERDAY [Monday, 23 August 2010], after nearly five days, fighting between the Misseriya and Rizeigat tribes reportedly continued in the Kass region, located approximately 90 kilometers northwest of Nyala, South Darfur. Mediation efforts were attempted by the Deputy Wali (Governor) of South Darfur over the weekend. A UNAMID verification mission is underway to provide an assessment on the situation, including the number of casualties.

Gunshots were heard last night [Monday, 23 August 2010] in one sector of the Kalma internally displaced person (IDP) camp, located on the outskirts of Nyala, South Darfur. A UNAMID patrol immediately proceeded in the direction of the shooting. At the site, four RPGs were found, as well as more than 100 spent cartridges.

A UNAMID verification patrol is scheduled today [Tuesday, 24 August 2010] in the Kass region, located approximately 90 kilometers northwest of Nyala, South Darfur. The exact number of casualties following inter-tribal fighting remains unknown, as only the Misseriya tribe has declared their figures, while Rizeigat casualty figures remain unconfirmed.

A committee has been established at the state level to resolve the renewed conflict between Misseriya and Rizeigat tribes which began on Monday 16 August 2010. The body has since met with the leaders of the two groups and presented them with recommendations to cease the fighting.

UNAMID continues to conduct day and night confidence building patrols within the Kalma IDP camp. Access continues to be granted to humanitarian NGOs for entry into Kalma by the Humanitarian Aid Commission. No new population movements within and out of the camp have been reported. Submersible pumps in the most populated parts of Kalma continue to function.

UNAMID military forces conducted 78 patrols including routine, short-range, long-range, night and humanitarian escort patrols covering 63 villages and IDP camps. UNAMID police advisors conducted 116 patrols in villages and IDP camps.

West Darfur
Yesterday [Monday, 23 August 2010] UNAMID Joint Special Representative, Professor Ibrahim Gambari, concluded a two-day visit to El Geneina and Zalingei, West Darfur where he met with Mission personnel, UN Agencies and the humanitarian community. He was briefed on the security and humanitarian situation in the respective area.

The visit included meetings with local government officials and security committee members, during which he reiterated his call to the government to apprehend those committing criminal acts against UNAMID peacekeepers. Government officials reassured the Mission and international aid workers of their commitment to safety and security. The JSR further stressed the need for UNAMID to adopt more robust patrols in and around the IDP camps.

Professor Gambari also visited Mournei (IDP) camp located about 48 kilometers south of El Geneina.

UNAMID’s new Police Commissioner takes up duties
Mr. James Oppong Boanuh of Ghana arrived at the Mission’s headquarters in El Fasher, North Darfur, this week to take up his duties as UNAMID’s Police Commissioner. He succeeds Mr. Micheal Fryer of South Africa who left in April after serving since the Mission’s inception in January 2008.

Ghana is currently the largest police contributing country to UNAMID with a total of 500 police officers.

Senegal adds to Formed Police Units
Yesterday [Monday, 23 August 2010] UNAMID received its second Senegalese Formed Police Unit (FPUs). The units, consisting of 140 personnel, will be deployed in El Geneina, West Darfur. The new arrivals, brings the total number of FPU officers in the Mission to 1,959.

SOURCES:

Daily Media Brief - Monday 23 August 2010 from UNAMID (United Nations – African Union Mission in Darfur) EL FASHER (DARFUR), Sudan/via APO.

Daily Media Brief - Tuesday 24 August 2010 from UNAMID (United Nations – African Union Mission in Darfur) EL FASHER (DARFUR), Sudan/via APO.
- - -

"FINE WORDS BUTTER NO PARSNIPS"

Click here for:
Briefing to the UN Security Council on the Humanitarian Situation in Darfur
Statement by John Holmes
Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator
Monday 23 August 2010
Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
- - -

MISSERIYA COUNT LOSSES AT 88 DEAD, 32 INJURED

Misseriya count losses at 88 dead, 32 injured in clashes near Kass, Darfur
Report from Radio Dabanga - Monday 23 August 2010:



(KASS) - A leader of the Misseriya tribe said the clashes around Kass have resulted in 88 dead and 32 injured from the Misseriya while he did not know the exact number of killed and wounded on the side of the Rizeigat. Violence between the two Arab tribes broke out last week after nearly two months of relative calm following a reconciliation deal signed in late June.

The Misseriya tribal leader, Izz-Al-Din Issa Mandil, appealed over Radio Dabanga for the belligerent parties to stop hostilities and convene a peace conference. He also called on the state government to do its duty to stop the violence.

Nuwayba clashes with Misseriya spread from Kass into West Darfur
Report from Radio Dabanga - Friday 20 August 2010:



(WADI SALIH) - The tribal clashes between the Nuwayba Rizeigat and the Misseriya spread from South Darfur to West Darfur. According to reports from the areas of Tanaku and Duraysa in Wadi Salih, there were dozens of dead and wounded in fresh clashes.

Sources in West Darfur said that a joint force of army and police were directed to go to the areas of events. Meanwhile, clashes continued between the parties in Kass Locality for a fourth day in a row along the Wadi Milla and west of Jabal Awda. Witnesses said that there were a number of new dead and wounded in the clashes on Thursday. The Governor of South of Darfur, Hamid Musa Kasha, reportedly arrived in the areas of events to calm the situation and control the response.

Before these latest reports, sources had already put the number of dead at about 50. The fighting between the two tribes follows nearly two months of relative peace after a reconciliation deal in late June.

50 dead in Misseriya-Nuwayba clashes near Kass, S. Darfur
Report from Radio Dabanga - Thursday 19 August 2010:

(KASS) - The number of people killed in continuing clashes between the Misseriya and the Nuwayba section of the Rizeigat tribe in Kass Locality rose yesterday to an estimate of 50. Sources in the area told Radio Dabanga that fighters have been using Land Cruiser to clash in the villages of the Maleh valley. One local official said that people are busy with 70 dead and wounded.
- - -

NOMADS NOT GUARANTEED VOTING RIGHTS?

Arab nomads settling in contested Sudan region: official
Report from AFP by Guillaume Lavallee – Sunday 01 August 2010:

(KHARTOUM) - Members of an Arab nomadic tribe are settling in a contested region straddling north and south Sudan, hoping to vote in referendum next year that will define its status, a Sudanese official said on Sunday.

Members of the Misseriya tribe, who are accused by southerners of being close to the Khartoum government, are said to be moving into parts of Abyei, the chief administrator of the region Deng Arop Kuol told reporters in the Sudanese capital.

"The issue that is concerning the people of Abyei and troubling them very much is the issue of settlement that is taking place within the boundaries of Abyei," Kuol said.

"It is the Misseriya who are settling in those areas. The target is to settle in 20 locations in the area north of Abyei and they already started to settle in those areas now," he said.

"We are getting information that they intend to settle 25,000 families in those areas and the number of people will go up to 75,000 in those areas. We believe it is something organised," Kuol added.

As south Sudan holds its referendum on independence in January, residents of the oil-rich Abyei region will simultaneously vote on whether they want to belong to north or south Sudan.

Abyei's referendum law gives the right of vote to members of the southern Dinka Ngok tribe and it is up to the referendum commission to decide which "other Sudanese" are considered residents of the region and can therefore vote.

The law has angered the Arab Misseriya -- a nomadic tribe that migrates each year to the Abyei region looking for pastures for their cattle -- because it does not guarantee them voting rights.

The referendum commission for Abyei has not yet been formed, because representatives of north and south Sudan have failed to agree on who will head it -- leaving the question of Misseriya eligibility still open.

"The Misseriya... are in no way meant to vote in the Abyei referendum because they are not residents. They are meant to be nomads," said Kuol.

Deadly clashes in May 2008 in Abyei had raised fears of a return to civil war between north and south Sudan. Both parties decided to take the matter of the sensitive border to arbitration in The Hague.

Last year, the Permanent Court of Arbitration based in The Hague refined the borders of Abyei, leaving the Heglig oil fileds out of the Abyei region, the heartland of the Dinka Ngok.

Both north and south authorities had accepted the ruling, which was criticised by the Misseriya.

The Hague decision was not "fair" and "definitive" and has not enabled both parties to resolve their differences, said Salah Cos, adviser to President Omar al-Bashir for security matters, in a statement over the weekend.

Sudan produces 500,000 barrels of oil per day and has reserves estimated at six billion barrels.

Most of it lies on the border between north and south.

ABYEI'S REFERENDUM LAW DOES NOT GUARANTEE VOTING RIGHTS TO ARAB MISSERIYA?

Sudan: Oil threatens South’s independence
Report from afrik-news.com by Konye Obaji Ori - Monday 02 August 2010:

Northern Sudan has been accused of settling Arab nomadic tribes in oil-rich Abeyi region where votes are required to influence whether or not the oil-rich Abyei would belong to North or South Sudan, ahead of a January 2011 referendum.

The chief administrator of the disputed oil-rich Abyei region, Deng Arop Kuol told reporters in the Sudanese capital Khartoum, that members of the Khartoum-backed Arab Misseriya tribe were moving into parts of Abyei, in order to vote in next year’s referendum that will define the status of the oil-rich region.

“The issue that is concerning the people of Abyei and troubling them very much is the issue of settlement that is taking place within the boundaries of Abyei. It is the Misseriya who are settling in those areas. The target is to settle in 20 locations in the area north of Abyei and they already started to settle in those areas now," Kuol was quoted by the Associated Press as saying.

The oil-rich Abyei region overlaps between North and South Sudan. And the January referendum on independence in South Sudan would require residents of the oil-rich Abyei region to simultaneously vote on whether they want to belong to north or south Sudan.

"We are getting information that they intend to settle 25,000 families in those areas and the number of people will go up to 75,000 in those areas. We believe it is something organized," Kuol said.

According to reports, Abyei’s referendum law, however, does not guarantee voting rights to the Arab Misseriya — a nomadic tribe that migrates each year to the Abyei region looking for pastures for their cattle.

Even though the settling Arab Misseriya tribe are not allowed to vote according to the referendum law, South Sudan authorities remain suspicious of their influx to Abyei, a region responsible for most of Sudan’s 500,000 barrels of oil production per day.

With an estimated six billion barrels of oil in the region, the economies of either North Sudan or an independent South Sudan would be affected by the outcome of votes in Abyei come January 2011. "The Misseriya... are in no way meant to vote in the Abyei referendum because they are not residents. They are meant to be nomads," Kuol adds.

Last year, the Permanent Court of Arbitration based in The Hague refined the borders of Abyei, leaving the Heglig oil fileds out of the Abyei region, and both the North and South authorities had accepted the ruling.

Deadly clashes in May 2008 in Abyei had raised fears of a return to civil war between North and South Sudan. And while both authorities decided to take the matter of the sensitive border to arbitration in The Hague, a forthcoming referendum for secession is threatening the fragile peace that has existed over the oil-rich region.

With the issue of Arab Misseriya’s voting eligibility still unresolved, and the referendum commission for Abyei not yet established, because Sudan’s Northern and Southern authorities have failed to agree on who should head it, questions of a peaceful and smooth separation of Sudan remains unanswered.

NCP SAYS MISSERIYA NOMADS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO VOTE, SPLM SAYS NO?

Unrest feared as Sudan talks stall
Report from Al Jazeera - Upated on Monday, 02 August 2010 22:43:

The ruling party in Sudan has sought to play down concerns about potential violence after talks between officials from the north and the south stalled over a referendum in the disputed oil-producing Abyei region.

A senior member of the National Congress Party (NCP) told Al Jazeera on Monday that there was no reason that the collapsed talks should escalate into a new conflict.

"I think the Abyei problem will be solved and I don't think there is any war to be expected," Rabie Abdul Atti said.

As South Sudan holds a referendum on a possible return to independence in January, Abyei will simultaneously vote on whether the region should belong to the north or the south.

But the NCP and Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), which governs the south, cannot agree on who will be eligible to vote.

"The issue of the Abyei referendum has come to a standstill," Deng Arop, a SPLM representative who heads Abyei's administration, told reporters on Sunday.

"This has the potential to ... cause a regional and international conflict."

More than two decades of bitter war between north and south Sudan left an estimated two million people dead. A peace deal signed in 2005 created a federal unity government that shared power between the north's ruling party and the former southern rebels.

Tribe controversy

Abyei's referendum law gives the right of vote to members of the southern Dinka Ngok tribe and it is up to the referendum commission to decide which "other Sudanese" are considered residents of the region and therefore eligible to vote.

The ruling NCP says the Misseriya, a big pro-unity nomadic tribe which grazes its cattle in the south during the dry season, should also vote.

The SPLM says the tribe as a bloc should not be allowed to vote, but that individuals with long-term residence in the region should be able to do so.

"The Misseriya ... are in no way meant to vote in the Abyei referendum because they are not residents. They are meant to be nomads," Arop said.

He said Misseriya had begun to settle 75,000 people in the north of Abyei to change the demographic of the region and influence the vote.

Arop estimated there were about 100,000 original Abyei residents excluding the Missiriya.

He called on the NCP to stop the settlements.

"If the government is not supporting this then it should take action to stop it," he said.

Abyei has been a contentious issue between the SPLM and the NCP both before and after the 2005 peace deal.

Border arbitration

Deadly clashes between the Sudanese army and the SPLM in Abyei in May 2008 raised fears of a return to war between north and south Sudan. Both parties decided to take the matter of the sensitive border to arbitration in The Hague.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration refined the borders, leaving the Heglig oil fields in the north, out of the Abyei region.

Both north and south authorities have accepted the ruling, but it was criticised by the Misseriya tribe.

Douglas Johnson. a former former member of the Abyei Boundaries Commission, told Al Jazeera that the threat of renewed violence in Abyei is "very serious".

"There have been clashes on the border, there have been clashes within Abyei, and this latest report of movement in large scale of Misseriya into northern areas of is very worrying," he said.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies

Click into above report to view video: Al Jazeera's Tarek Bazely explains the complexity of the Abyei issue.
- - -

IN DEPTH from Al Jazeera

Q&A: Sudan's Abyei dispute



Grazing and land rights are key issues for those who live in Abyei [EPA]

Abyei tribes fear losing land



Both the African Dinka and Arab Misseriya tribes say Abyei belongs to them [EPA]

Click on Abyei label here below, and keep on scrolling, to read reports in the archives of Sudan Watch.