SUDAN WATCH: Keane

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Friday, April 28, 2023

Sudan's Islamists use online networks and AI to make their move. Waiting to return is ex NISS chief Gosh

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: It's good to see veteran Africa correspondent Rob Crilly reporting on Sudan again. Sometime before during and after the Darfur war, Rob wrote a book cleverly titled 'Saving Darfur: Everyone's Favourite African War'. The book became well known, sold well and is still available from leading book sellers including on Kindle at Amazon.

Here below is a summary of Rob's latest report on Sudan for the Daily Mail, followed by a copy in full. Thanks Rob, good to see you back safe and sound!

Sudan's Islamists use online networks and AI to make their move

Waiting in the wings to return are notorious figures such as Salah Gosh, former head of NISS

Social media research shows Sudan's Islamists making a push for power

It includes using AI to fake an address by the U.S. ambassador, researchers say

They are seeking a return to relevance amid fighting between rival generals

On Sunday, US special forces carried out a precarious evacuation of the US Embassy in Sudan

Images of foreigners fleeing are being used by Islamists to say they are winning the war against the West, just like the Taliban did in Afghanistan when Americans fled in 2021

The fighting pitches army chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, who has allied himself with the country's Islamists, against Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (better known as Hemedti) who heads the Rapid Support Forces

While Hemedti, who rose to prominence amid the war crimes of Darfur, claims to promote democracy, Burhan has linked up with Islamists as part of his strategy to emerge as victor

‘He basically made a deal with the devil,' said Cameron Hudson, senior associate in the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies'

'And that deal was: I will allow you to reemerge and to regain a foothold in this country, and you have to support me politically and use your networks and your, your deep state influence to support me against the RFS

Waiting in the wings to return in the event of an army victory, he said, were notorious figures such as Salah Gosh, the former leader of the feared National Intelligence and Security Service.

Read the full report from DailyMail.com

By ROB CRILLY, SENIOR U.S. POLITICAL REPORTER FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Published: 21:09, 27 April 2023 | Updated: 21:49, 27 April 2023 - excerpts:

EXCLUSIVE Sudan's Islamists use online networks and AI to make their move: Social media accounts spread claims hardliners will seize power as democracy leaders flee during Western evacuation just like the Taliban did in Afghanistan

Sudan's Islamists are out of favor and out of power after once being the force behind the country's military rulers.

But they are now using sophisticated social media networks and AI to try to worm their way back to a position of influence amid the country's turmoil.

Sudan's top two military leaders have spent most of the past two weeks fighting for control of Africa's third largest nation, prompting the U.S. and other foreign nations to evacuate diplomats and nationals.

Islamist groups are using those images to claim that the West is in retreat and they are poised for victory, just like the Taliban in Afghanistan, according to research by a social media monitoring group.

Their online networks have even used AI technology to spread fake audio recordings suggesting the U.S. was trying to reduce the influence of Islam on the country.

Islamists are using a sophisticated social media operation to gain influence in Sudan. That includes using AI to fake a plot by US Ambassador John Godfrey to intervene in the country

Amil Khan, founder of Valent Projects which researches the impact of social media, said Islamists had a powerful network of accounts spreading images of Western-led evacuations, and of civilian leaders taking flights out of Khartoum.

'They're opportunistically then using that to say this is Western collapse, and linking it to Kabul allows them to try to paint themselves as victors in the same way that they see the Taliban,' he said.

'It reflects messaging around the word that the Taliban have won the US. The US left in disarray.

'The Islamists are trying to say that we are the people that conquered them.'

In their heyday, Sudan's Islamists turned the nation into a haven for terrorists. Osama bin Laden made his home in the capital Khartoum from 1991 to 1996.

Khan said that although they had lost influence following the toppling of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, they had built a powerful online presence.

'What they did have was this really extensive manipulation-digital infrastructure with hundreds and hundreds of mass accounts that could just get a coordinated message out and dominate the digital space,' he said.

At the same time, they were claiming that fleeing Sudanese leaders were leaving with their foreign paymasters — all part of an effort to undermine the popularity of civilian rule.

But he added there was little evidence that Sudan's weary population was being swayed by such blatant propaganda.

Even so, Republican Rep. Mike Waltz, a former Green Beret who sits on the House intelligence committee, said the development was deeply worrying.

'It’s absolutely a concern and we're going to lose even more visibility and intelligence gathering now that the State Department has had to pull its embassy staff,' he said.

Social media messages have celebrated the exit of former foreign minister Omar Qamar al-Din, for example.

'This is how the clients are falling one after the other,' said a post reviewed by DailyMail.com, comparing his early morning exit with the flight of officials from the Western-backed government in Kabul in 2021 as Taliban forces closed in on the Afghan capital.

Valent also concluded that Islamist accounts were behind a faked audio message supposedly from US Ambassador John Godfrey, apparently outlining strategies to impose secularism on Sudan.

'The first is international intervention with military force and imposing a new reality on this people by force of arms. This is now excluded in light of the weak world order,' the faked voice says.

'As for the other option, support us in the process of subjugating the rapid support militias and exploiting the two brothers greed for power and using them as a deterrent force and guardian of the secular democratic state, no matter how brutal it may be.'

Western governments used a ceasefire this week to bring home their diplomats and rescue as many nationals as possible.

It came after the troubled African nation was plunged into violence, two years after a coup sidelined its civilian prime minister.

Talks to lead the country back to civilian rule appeared to reach an agreement in December, but hopes of a peaceful transition were dashed by fighting that erupted two weeks ago between the head of the army and the head of the Rapid Support Force (RSF).

RSF chief Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (better known as Hemedti) had been deputy to General Abdel Fattah Burhan, until the two fell out over plans to integrate his militia into the army.

Witnesses have described seeing bodies on the streets of the capital and more than 500 people have been killed around the country.

While Hemedti, who rose to prominence amid the war crimes of Darfur, claims to promote democracy, Burhan has linked up with Islamists as part of his strategy to emerge as victor.

'He basically made a deal with the devil,' said Cameron Hudson, senior associate in the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies'.

Waiting in the wings to return in the event of an army victory, he said, were notorious figures such as Salah Gosh, the former leader of the feared National Intelligence and Security Service.

'We know what their rule of the country looked like,' he said. 'And these are bad dudes.

'These are these are all the guys that were responsible for all of the worst abuses of the Bashir regime.'

See gallery of 11 photos (including 5 above) with credits and these captions:

Shells are seen on the ground near damaged buildings at the central market during clashes between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the army in Khartoum North
Islamists helped propel an army colonel to power in 1989. They were the power behind the throne under Omar al-Bashir's reign, until he was dumped out of power in 2019
Sudanese army soldiers, loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, pose for a picture at the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) base in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan
VIDEO Sudan doctor fears hospital will run out of medical supplies
Islamists are using a sophisticated social media operation to gain influence in Sudan. That includes using AI to fake a plot by US Ambassador John Godfrey to intervene in the country
Sudan's capital Khartoum has been rocked by two weeks of fighting between rival generals. Smoke can be seen her rising from the city's international airport last week
On Sunday, U.S. special forces carried out a precarious evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Sudan. Images of foreigners fleeing are being used by Islamists to say they are winning the war against the West, just like the Taliban did in Afghanistan when Americans fled in 2021
Pictured: British Nationals about to board an RAF aircraft in Sudan, for evacuation to Larnaca International Airport in Cyprus
Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan
Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo

View the original report plus video and photo gallery here: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12021059/Sudans-Islamists-use-online-networks-say-seize-power-like-Taliban-did-Kabul.html

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From Amazon.co.uk

Saving Darfur - Everyone's Favourite African War

Africa is a continent riddled with conflict. Most are forgotten wars that rumble away unnoticed for decades. Darfur is different. For six years an unlikely coalition of the religious right, the liberal left and a smattering of celebrities has kept Darfur's bloody conflict in the headlines. Rob Crilly arrived in Sudan in 2005 to find out what made Darfur special.

Far from being a simple clash of good and evil, he discovers the complicated truth about Arabs and Africans, and the world's failed attempts to halt the killing. Along the way he rides with rebels on donkeys, gets caught in a Janjaweed attack and learns lessons from Osama bin Laden's horse. What he found will turn your understanding of the war upside down.

Product description

Review

'A haunting and brutally honest account of international failure and African suffering. Lucid, engaging and written with love for the entire continent of Africa.' --Fergal Keane, BBC News

Rob Crilly tells the story of Darfur up close, focusing on the people who have fought and suffered. Neither cynical nor moralizing, he brings to life its protagonists-rebel fighters, Arab militiamen, displaced villagers, foreign aid workers, diplomats and campaigners. Saving Darfur delves beneath the stereotypes to tackle the complexities of Darfur and Sudan, illuminating both the ordinariness and the bizarreness of this extraordinary African war.' --Alex De Waal, author of 'Darfur: A New History of a Long War'

'While I disagree with much of Mr Crilly's analysis, he provides us with a solid journalistic account of his first-hand experiences in Darfur.' --Mia Farrow, actress and activist

From the Inside Flap

`A haunting and brutally honest account of international failure and African suffering' - Fergal Keane, BBC News

From the Back Cover

'A haunting and brutally honest account of international failure and African suffering' - Fergal Keane, BBC News

'Rob Crilly tells the story of Darfur up close, focusing on the people who have fought and suffered' - Alex de Waal, author of Darfur: A New History of a Long War

'This books peels off the labels that have been stuck on Darfur by outsiders and exposes the stubborn realities beneath the surface' - Richard Dowden, Director of the Royal African Society

About the Author

Rob Crilly is a freelance foreign correspondent. For five years he lived and worked in East Africa, travelling through war zones in Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and northern Uganda, reporting for The Times, The Irish Times, The Christian Science Monitor, The Daily Mail and The Scotsman. Born in 1973, he was educated at the Judd School, Tonbridge, and Cambridge University. Before moving to Africa he spent five years working for British newspapers, most recently as Edinburgh Bureau Chief of The Herald.

View original https://www.amazon.co.uk/Saving-Darfur-Everyones-Favourite-African/dp/1906702195

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Saturday, June 22, 2019

UK Ambassador in Khartoum Irfan Siddiq confirms internet has been out in Sudan since 03 June 2019

THE internet has been shutdown in Sudan since 3 June 2019. The shutdown by the Transitional Military Council (TMC) in Sudan is costing people and businesses millions of dollars, according to local newspapers.

Unusually, this site Sudan Watch has not received any visitors located in or around Sudan and South Sudan since 3 June.

Here is a copy of a 5 June 2019 tweet by Mr Irfan Siddiq, the British Ambassador in Khartoum, Sudan confirming the internet has been out in Sudan since 3 June:

Internet has been out in Sudan since 3 June. This is a huge problem. In these critical times it is essential that everyone can communicate, particularly to urge messages of keeping things calm and peaceful. The authorities must turn the internet back on and keep phone lines open.
— Irfan Siddiq (@FCOIrfan) 5 June 2019

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Letter from Sudan

As part of the BBC’s series of letters from African journalists, journalist Ms Zeinab Mohammed Salih describes what life is like without the internet for Sudan's revolutionaries.

Here is a copy of Zeinab's letter published at BBC News online on 17 June 2019, followed by film footage showing BBC Africa editor Mr Fergal Keane in Sudan's capital Khartoum speaking to some people who witnessed the terrible violence in Khartoum.

Sudan's revolutionaries offline but not silenced

By Zeinab Mohammed Salih (pictured)

Many Sudanese are still in shock after the crackdown by security forces who brutally broke up the crowds at the sit-in outside the military headquarters on 3 June.

The opposition says more than 100 people were killed in the capital, Khartoum, that day - and doctors say 40 of those who died were dumped into the River Nile.

In the wake of the massacre the internet was shut down by ruling Transitional Military Council (TMC), which said it was necessary in the interests of "national security".

In the heady days of the mass protests that prompted the military's ousting of Omar al-Bashir as president - nearly everyone in Khartoum was glued to their phone.

The main body organising the demonstrations - the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) - would make its announcement via its Facebook page, which has more than 800,000 followers.

Thousands used Twitter and Facebook to galvanise their efforts to demand a return to civilian rule.

Image copyright AFP/BBC

Now that the sit-in site - which covered a vast area from the military's HQ to the campus of University of Khartoum and north to the River Nile - is in ashes, there is an overwhelming feeling of isolation.

Not only are the demonstrators no longer able to gather, but they have found it difficult to communicate and share their disappointment, frustration and anger at the turn of events.

'Costing millions'

It also leaves them isolated from the rest of the world - and in the days after the crackdown those in the diaspora were desperate to contact friends and family.

The internet shutdown is costing businesses millions of dollars, according to the local newspapers, something the country can ill afford given that it was the economic problems that first kick-started the protests in December.

For me as a journalist, it has made my working life very difficult. At first I had to send stories to London via text - and these would not always be delivered.

This was until a friend told me about a hotel in downtown Khartoum with a good landline internet connection.

But reaching the hotel is also not easy.

Most roads in Khartoum have been blocked by barricades erected by activists angered by the killings - and people, especially in the first days after the crackdown, had to walk everywhere.

Eerily this was done in complete silence - and in stark contrast to the noise that emanated for two months from the sit-in site.

A few offices also have landline internet connections and my sister walked for three hours to get to hers in Khartoum east to check an urgent email from a US university where she is hoping to study.

Those forced to walk have been seen carrying knives and sticks, especially in Khartoum's twin city of Omdurman, to protect themselves.

The SPA has now started to send out text messages to mobilise people but not everyone is signed up to these - I have yet to receive any - and some fear that texts are tracked by the authorities.

Most people prefer to turn to old-fashioned phone calls to pass on information.

I have spoken to more friends and contacts in the last few weeks than I have done in a year.

There is still a worry that these conversations may be tracked but it is felt that not everything can be monitored.

Word of mouth

Without the internet, many pro-democracy activists are also cut off from news that they trust.

Image copyright AFP/BBC. Image caption: There is tight security in some areas of the capital

State TV is largely ignored as it the mouthpiece of the military junta.

The Saudi channel Al-Hadath is probably the most watched television station - even though the Saudis are seen as backers of the TMC, it has wide coverage of events in Sudan

And the protest movement is slowly re-galvanising itself - by word of mouth.

Protests are beginning to be held at night in suburbs across the capital and in neighbouring cities.

As more people hear about them, the bigger they become - though witnesses say they are kept to smaller streets because of the presence of the security forces on the main roads.

Nonetheless it shows the resilience of the demonstrators - and their hope that their demands will eventually bear fruit.

Media caption

The BBC's Africa editor Mr Fergal Keane spoke to some of those who witnessed the violence in Khartoum.

To read the original article click here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-48640939

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Janjaweed and gunfire in Khartoum Sudan, death toll rising, bodies in Nile, Yasir Arman beaten and arrested

SADLY the security situation in Sudan has deteriorated rapidly over the past few days. Various news reports say the death toll related to protests in Sudan's capital Khartoum is rapidly rising: 100+ deaths including 40+ bodies floating in the Nile, 500+ wounded. Protestors dispersed, streets emptying, situation volatile.

An Associated Press (AP) report 5 June 2019 says the death toll over the past three days is 108 and at least 509 people had been wounded. Here are some extracts. Note, AP writer Bassam Hatoum reported this story in Khartoum and AP writer Samy Magdy reported from Cairo:

"The reported discovery of the bodies in the Nile suggested that Monday's violent dispersal of the protest movement's main sit-in camp, outside military headquarters, was even bloodier than initially believed. The attack on the camp was led by a notorious paramilitary unit called the Rapid Support Forces, along with other troops who waded into the camp, opening fire and beating protesters.

During the mayhem, the Doctors Committee said witnesses reported seeing bodies loaded into military vehicles to be dumped into the river. The camp was not far from the Blue Nile, just upstream from where it joins the White Nile and then flows north through Sudan and Egypt to the Mediterranean.

The committee said in a statement that a day earlier, militiamen of the Rapid Support Forces were seen pulling 40 bodies from the river and taking them away. It said it was not known where they were taken.

One activist, Amal al-Zein, said the number could be even higher. She said activists and private citizens had pulled dozens more bodies from the Nile in areas near the sit-in and took them to a hospital morgue. "Some bodies have wounds from bullets, others seemed to have beaten and thrown in the Nile," she said."

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Arman beaten and arrested by Sudanese security forces

BRITAIN'S Ambassador in Khartoum, Sudan, Mr Irfan Siddiq posted news on his Twitter page @FCOIrfan today (Wed 5 June) confirming that Mr Yasir Arman, leader of SPLM-N(Agar) has been beaten and arrested by Sudanese security forces. Click here to see the Ambassador's tweet:

https://twitter.com/FCOIrfan/status/1136226348366782465

- - -

HERE is a news analysis by BBC Africa editor Fergal Keane OBE. I have reprinted it in full because it is so well researched with reliable photos and film footage showing the gunfire in Khartoum. Today's technology makes it so easy for anyone to alter reports, photos and film for circulating online as propaganda. The BBC uses sophisticated technology to carefully check and verify news, images and film clips before publishing.
Another reason for reprinting it in full is this: in the weeks, months and years ahead it will slip out of the BBC's headlines while here at Sudan Watch it will remain alive with a spotlight shining brightly on the truth.
Rest in peace all who were murdered by their own government + + +

Sudan crisis: Return of the feared Janjaweed

By Fergal Keane

BBC's Africa editor

Tuesday 4 June 2019

Protesters set ablaze tyres to try to stop Sudan's security forces on Monday

AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Sudan's military has faced mounting international condemnation for its violent attack on protesters which reportedly left at least 30 dead. But there were clear signs this was likely to happen.

Even when the crowds were at their largest and most joyous there was a sense of looming danger.

You did not have to walk far from the sit-in to encounter the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) lounging on their pick-up trucks.

Unlike the regular army these militiamen rarely responded to greetings or if they did it was with a non-committal nod, no hint of a smile.

It did not surprise me.

I remembered them from Darfur 14 years before. There they were known as the Janjaweed and became notorious for atrocities inflicted on the civilian population.

In 2005 I saw them beat and terrorise civilians in a camp for the displaced and I interviewed the survivors of torture and rape.

Now they have brought their violence to the streets of the capital.

This is the sound of gunfire in Khartoum, Sudan...

Sudan military attacks protestors

Sudan has been driven backwards by the conspiracy of a military elite whose priority is the survival of their power and privilege.

The Transitional Military Council has scrapped the agreements reached with the opposition Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) under the guise of speeding up the transition to full democratic elections.

These are to be held within nine months.

The plan is more than likely a fiction, not designed to produce civilian rule or anything like it.

There is ample precedent in Africa and elsewhere these days for elections which go through the motions of democracy but deliver none of its substance.

Don't be surprised to see senior figures from the TMC "retiring" from the military and standing as civilian candidates.

What will not change is military control of Sudanese life.

In part the FFC and its civil society allies are victims of their own dizzying success in the early days of the revolution.

Within 24 hours they toppled President Omar al-Bashir and the military man who led the coup against him.

Thirty years of rule appeared to have been vanquished.

The sight of the sit-in drew activists from all spheres of Sudanese life. It became a citadel of freedom.

The atmosphere was intoxicating.

People debated and sang and produced art.

GETTY IMAGES

They produced manifestos on women's rights, media freedom, justice and the economy, and much more besides.

Yet diversity was also a vulnerability.

Everybody agreed that civilian rule was the essential demand.

But there were inevitable differences over the specifics of achieving that aim: what should the timeframe be, what would be the balance between military and civilian representatives, which personalities representing which groupings would take positions in any transitional arrangements?

None of these debates were in themselves fatal to the cause.

But they highlighted the difficulties of being a "people's movement" compared to an established political party with the structures and internal discipline to make swift changes at the negotiating table.

Hard line take control

There was another problem.

As the shockwaves of Mr Bashir's overthrow dissipated the old politics of Sudan re-emerged.

Parties and personalities who had been suppressed under dictatorship were determined not to be left out if political power was being shared.

This allowed the military to characterise the protesters as simply one of the groups who were part of the negotiations, ignoring the fact that there would have been no negotiations without the demonstrations.

Delaying or dissembling in the name of inclusivity became a tactic.

Once the military had recovered from the confusion around Mr Bashir's overthrow it regrouped and the most hard line elements took control.

This explains the pre-eminence of the RSF commander, Mohammed "Hemedti" Hamadan whose personal ruthlessness in Darfur always made him the most likely leader of a counter-revolution.

Unlike many of the military elite "Hemedti" is an outsider.

From a rural background he has no family ties or sentimental affiliation with the young middle class protesting on the streets of the Khartoum.

Divided world

The military also enjoys another big advantage.

This is an age of international division.

The notion of an "international community" which might pressure the regime is a fantasy.

The world is now governed by a collection of interests - occasionally they are complimentary, more often they are in competition.

The UN Security Council is not a forum where any kind of concerted action on Sudan might be approved.

Russia and China would block any move to increase sanctions on Khartoum.

The condemnation from US National Security Advisor, John Bolton - he called the Khartoum violence "abhorrent" - will only mean something if the US demands that its regional allies - Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - exert pressure on the Sudanese military.

For now it is hard to imagine President Donald Trump picking up the phone to Cairo or Riyadh and insisting on a swift transition to civilian rule.

Mr Trump has other priorities like the Mexican border, Venezuela, Iran and the trade war with China.

Sudanese forces tried to disperse the sit-in Monday

ASHRAF SHAZLY

What about an African solution?

The African Union (AU) was an early supporter of civilian rule after the fall of Mr Bashir but the AU's actions around the election results in the Democratic Republic of Congo in January are cautionary: the AU first criticised what many observers saw as a fix but then rowed back.

In recent weeks the African body has spoken of the need for international actors not to meddle in Sudanese affairs.

Bear in mind too that the AU's current chairperson is Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi who is himself a symbol of military usurpation of power.

The Sudan crisis exposes the dominant reality of the international scene.

Force can have its way without consequence if the killers and torturers represent a valuable enough asset to other stronger powers - in strategic, ideological, intelligence or economic terms.

It is possible that President Trump will make a stand on Sudan and pressure his allies to act, that the AU will threaten to expel and isolate Sudan, that more moderate elements in the military will emerge and challenge "Hemedti" and his supporters. Possible. But certainly not probable.

I remember speaking with a leading activist at the demonstrations back in April.

He told me that "the sit-in is the only card we have. That is why we have to maintain it."

Sudanese people had been protesting for many weeks by this point in May, well after Mr Bashir had been forced out of office

GETTY IMAGES

But now that the sit-in is smashed where does the opposition go?

The peaceful revolutionaries are beaten and traumatised.

It is impossible to say now whether the Forces of Freedom and Change can come back as a street-driven force.

There have been calls for civil disobedience and strikes.

Any such will likely be met with ruthless violence.

What will not change, in fact what has been deepened, is the alienation of people from their rulers.

Demonstrators were still protesting peacefully at the beginning of May at a sit-in outside the army's headquarters

GETTY IMAGES

Repression may work as a strategy for now but not indefinitely.

Sudan is now dependant on powerful neighbours for its economic survival and beset by internal divisions.

Dependency on the Egyptians and Saudis will rankle with many Sudanese beyond the protesters, adding a more overtly nationalist dimension to the current crisis.

The generals have succeeded in smashing the protest but their troubles may only be starting.

Road to transition

Image copyright

AFP

19 December 2018 - Protests erupt after fuel and bread price rises announced

22 February 2019 - President Bashir dissolves the government

24 February - Protests continue as security forces respond by firing live bullets

6 April - Activists begin sit-in at military headquarters, vowing not to move until Mr Bashir steps down

11 April - Army generals announce that Mr Bashir has been toppled but sit-in continues as people demand civilian rule

20 April - Talks between the military rulers and civilian representatives begin

13 May - Shooting outside the military headquarters leaves six people dead

14 May - Military and civilians announce a deal on a three-year transition period

16 May - Talks postponed as military demands some barricades are removed

3 June - Activists announce the suspension of talks with the military, accusing them of using force to disperse their sit-in