Scenarios for 2011 and After: Introduction (Alex de Waal)

There are likely to be dramatic events around the time of the referendum, whose impacts are very hard to anticipate. No-one, for example, is examining what might happen if there is a powerful movement for self-determination in Darfur, or if a renewed north-south war brings in other governments in the region as belligerents.

What the two scenarios succeed admirably in doing is laying out the key drivers of the future of Sudan, as they exist today, and the possible outcomes. The bleaker outcomes are sadly more probable than the more optimistic ones. The scenarios help us focus attention on the key strategic choices to be made, and the most important dangers to avoid. They have come not a moment too soon."

Full story: By Alex de Waal at Making Sense of Darfur Sunday, October 18, 2009 - Scenarios for 2011 and After: Introduction