Ali Karti, SG of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, widely seen as a mastermind of Sudan's war, has now announced a truce with RSF will never be accepted

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Dame Rosalind Marsden in the following analysis 'Sudan's forgotten war: A new diplomatic push is needed' says there needs to be a concerted diplomatic push at the highest level: "the aim must be to change the calculations of the generals and counter the influence of hard-line Islamists from the Bashir-era who are blocking negotiations. This requires pressing for a coordinated mediation process to prevent warring parties’ forum-shopping between mediation initiatives; targeting the financial flows and military supplies fuelling the war; and supporting efforts to unify those Sudanese working for the goal of democratic transition."

It is difficult to see why Dame Rosalind is recommending "a coordinated mediation process" as even she says "Ali Karti, the Secretary-General of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, who is widely seen as a mastermind of the war, has now announced that a truce with the RSF will never be accepted." 

Many Sudanese civilians online are saying they don't want Sudan to be led by Gen. Burhan and his Islamist regime nor by Hemeti and his terrorist militia. I've not seen a solution. Maybe the people could join hands in peace.

Note, in her analysis Dame Rosalind rightly publicises the Emergency Response Rooms, aka ERRs, by saying: "Donors will also have to step up to address the spiralling food crisis, by reducing the UN funding gap and supporting grassroots first responders in the Emergency Response Rooms.' 

______________________________

From Chatham House

EXPERT COMMENT
By Dame Rosalind Marsden

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme 

Email Rosalind  Twitter

Dated Thursday, 14 March 2024 - here is a copy in full:

Sudan’s forgotten war: A new diplomatic push is needed

After nearly a year of devastating conflict, there is little sign of a ceasefire. Concerted high-level international pressure is needed to change the calculations of the generals and support a democratic transition.

Image — People rally in Wad Madani, Sudan, in December 2023. 

(Photo by AFP via Getty Images)

On 8 March, the UN Security Council adopted a UK-drafted resolution calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the month of Ramadan, a sustainable resolution to the conflict through dialogue, compliance with international humanitarian law and unhindered humanitarian access.

Eleven months into the war, this is the first time that the Council has been able to agree on a resolution. The mandate of the UN Panel of Experts that monitors the sanctions regime in Darfur was also renewed by the Council. Does this signify hope that efforts to end the war might gather momentum? Or is Sudan likely to face a protracted conflict?

The war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fatah Al Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as ‘Hemedti’) is a competition for power and resources between rival factions of the regular armed forces.

But it is also rooted in Sudan’s long history of internal conflict, marginalization of the peripheries and lack of accountability for atrocity crimes. Both the SAF’s officer corps and the RSF are creations of former President Omer al-Bashir’s regime. 

Each has shown disregard for the lives of Sudanese civilians by waging war in densely populated urban areas. The scale of destruction is unprecedented in Sudan’s modern history.

With the world’s attention focused on Gaza and Ukraine, the war receives woefully little high-level political, parliamentary or international media attention, raising serious questions about double standards in dealing with global crises, particularly conflicts in Africa.

A humanitarian catastrophe

Sudan is suffering from a humanitarian disaster, with a looming famine and the world’s biggest displacement crisis: 8 million people are newly displaced inside or outside the country, in addition to over 3 million displaced by previous conflicts.

The head of the World Food Programme has warned that the war risks creating the world’s largest hunger crisis. Yet the UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan for Sudan is only 4 per cent funded.

The conflict has the potential to destabilize already fragile neighbouring countries, create large new migration flows to Europe, and attract extremist groups.

Meanwhile, regional actors are fighting a proxy war in the country, giving military, financial and political support to the warring parties. 

The involvement of Russia and Iran has given the war a geopolitical dimension linked to Putin’s war in Ukraine – partly funded with Sudanese gold – and competition for influence on the Red Sea coast.

Food as a weapon of war

Both RSF and SAF forces have used hunger as a weapon of war. The RSF has looted humanitarian warehouses and besieged cities. 

The SAF-controlled Humanitarian Aid Commission has systematically withheld authorization for crossline movement of life-saving aid to RSF-controlled areas.

One limited outcome from recent international pressure has been the partial reversal of the SAF’s ban on cross-border humanitarian access from Chad into Darfur. The de facto SAF authorities in Port Sudan have agreed to open limited border crossings from Chad and South Sudan. However, MSF International have criticized this as a partial solution at best.

The UN will need to monitor implementation to ensure neutrality in the distribution of aid, while intensifying pressure for unhindered cross-border and crossline humanitarian access.

Donors will also have to step up to address the spiralling food crisis, by reducing the UN funding gap and supporting grassroots first responders in the Emergency Response Rooms.

Growing pressure for a cessation of hostilities

The fact that the UN Secretary-General, the UN Security Council, the African Union, and the League of Arab States joined forces to call for a Ramadan truce, represents a significant increase in pressure on the warring parties.

Nevertheless, Ramadan has started with further fierce fighting. It is unclear how the Security Council expected a truce to take effect without prior diplomatic engagement to agree an implementation and monitoring mechanism. 

Command and control is fragmented on both sides and the warring parties have failed to abide by previous temporary truces negotiated through the Saudi/US-sponsored Jeddah Platform.

Moreover, Sudan’s security state has no history of respecting the month of Ramadan: the current war began during the holy month on 15 April 2023, and peaceful protestors were brutally dispersed in Khartoum on 3 June 2019.

Burhan cautiously commended the Secretary-General’s proposal for a Ramadan truce, but the Islamist-controlled Ministry of Foreign Affairs and SAF’s General Yasir al Atta poured cold water on the idea by announcing a list of preconditions amounting to surrender by the RSF.

8 million

Number of newly displaced people as a result of the war in Sudan.

This response follows a familiar pattern: any indication by Burhan of readiness to negotiate is immediately negated by Islamist elements of the Bashir regime, who hope to return to power on the back of an SAF victory. 

Ali Karti, the Secretary-General of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, who is widely seen as a mastermind of the war, has now announced that a truce with the RSF will never be accepted.

Both sides still seem determined to gain the upper hand militarily. The SAF, hitherto on the back foot, has launched an offensive to regain lost territory in Omdurman and Gezira state, supported by Iranian drones, Islamist militias, the Special Operations Forces of the Bashir-era Intelligence Service, former Darfuri rebels and armed civilians. 

The RSF, whose human rights violations have alienated much of the population, welcomed the UN’s call for a truce, but are also engaged in recruitment, particularly among Arab tribes in Darfur.

The longer the war continues, the greater the risk that it will evolve into a full-scale ethnicized civil war, and that the country will be engulfed by famine.

A concerted diplomatic push

Concerted diplomacy at the highest level is therefore urgently needed. The aim must be to change the calculations of the generals and counter the influence of hard-line Islamists from the Bashir-era who are blocking negotiations.

This requires pressing for a coordinated mediation process to prevent warring parties’ forum-shopping between mediation initiatives; targeting the financial flows and military supplies fuelling the war; and supporting efforts to unify those Sudanese working for the goal of democratic transition.

Civilians are the main victims of the war and should be involved in each stage of any peace process. They, not the generals, should shape Sudan’s post-war transition. Those responsible for atrocities must be held accountable.  

There has been some recent evolution in regional dynamics. Egypt and the UAE, who have been backing opposite sides, co-facilitated RSF/SAF talks in Manama in January, alongside the US, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

There are also signs of a stronger international commitment to active diplomatic engagement. The AU has created a High-Level Panel on Sudan, while the US has appointed a dedicated Special Envoy. The Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General has been empowered by the Security Council to complement and coordinate regional peace efforts.

But a strong push is now needed to silence the guns and push the warring parties to resume talks under the Jeddah Platform, preferably in an expanded format. More visible, high-level political commitment is badly needed, if the conflict in Sudan is not to remain a forgotten war.

This article was produced with support from the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme, funded by UK International Development. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.

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Postscript from Sudan Watch Editor:

Dame Rosalind Marsden was the EU Special Representative for Sudan from September 2010 until October 2013. Before joining the EU, she had a long career in the British diplomatic service, including postings as Consul-General in Basra, British Ambassador to Sudan and British Ambassador to Afghanistan. 

She has also served as Head of the United Nations Department and Director (Asia-Pacific) in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London. 

Earlier in her career she served twice in the British Embassy in Tokyo and spent two years on secondment to the private sector, working in the corporate finance department of an investment bank. 

She received her BA in Modern History from Somerville College, Oxford and her D.Phil from St Antony’s College, Oxford.

View original: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/sudans-forgotten-war-new-diplomatic-push-needed

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Related 

Chatham House - 18 December 2023 

How a transnational approach can better manage the conflict in Sudan

Approaching conflict as a national issue sidelines a complex web of transnational influences and threatens prospects for sustainable peace.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/12/how-transnational-approach-can-better-manage-conflict-sudan

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UN News - 3 February 2024

Youth-led ‘emergency rooms’ shine rays of hope in war-torn Sudan

© ERR Emergency response rooms are finding innovative approaches to providing rapid assistance to millions facing war in Sudan. 

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/02/1146187

END

Sudan crisis is destabilising South Sudan. African and Arab peacemakers working hard to help save Sudan

"Sudan's conflict is already destabilizing South Sudan. Gen Hemedti demanded that South Sudan cease paying the Sudanese government - meaning Gen Burhan - for use of the oil pipeline to Port Sudan, the only export route for that country's main source of revenue. South Sudan has not yet commented on the demand.

Over the weekend, Mr Ruto travelled to Chad to confer with President Mahamat Déby. Deeply fearful of the potential of the Darfur crisis to destabilize his country, Mr Déby held a crisis meeting with Darfuri leaders, including the commanders of the former rebel groups, to discuss how best to respond." 

Read more in a report at BBC News
By Alex de Waal
Africa analyst
Published Thursday 13 July 2023 - here is a full copy:

Sudan crisis: From Ruto to Sisi, leaders vie to drive peace process

IMAGE SOURCE,

GETTY IMAGES

In a clear sign of their seriousness to end the escalating conflict in Sudan, four East African states, led by Kenya, are pushing for the deployment of a regional force to protect civilians and ensure that humanitarian aid reaches millions of people trapped in the war zone.

But getting the agreement of the warring factions will be a tough call, as they have shown no interest in anything other than military victory since the conflict broke out in mid-April.

Meanwhile Egypt is hosting a summit of Sudan's neighbours to discuss ways to end the conflict between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The military, headed by Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, controls most of eastern and central Sudan, and is fighting to hold on to its bases in the capital, Khartoum.

The rival RSF, led by Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, known as "Hemedti", has made advances in Khartoum, where its fighters have been accused of murders, rapes and occupying and pillaging hospitals.

The military bombs RSF positions relentlessly in the capital, reportedly causing widespread civilian casualties.

Over the media horizon, horrifying violence rages in Sudan's western region of Darfur.

The RSF has overrun most of the region. Along with their allied Arab militia, RSF fighters have driven out many thousands of ethnic Masalit from their historic homeland in western Darfur.

They burned the palace of the sultan, the group's customary leader. When the governor, Khamis Abbakar, called it "genocide" men in RSF uniform abducted and killed him.

More than 160,000 Masalit refugees have fled across the border to Chad.

The RSF also ransacked the city of Zalingei, home to the Fur community, and encircled the two biggest cities in the region, al-Fashir and Nyala.

Many Darfuris fear this is the culmination of a long-standing plan to transform the ethnically-mixed region into an Arab-ruled domain.

IMAGE SOURCE,

REUTERS

Image caption,

With Darfur worst-affected by the conflict, people are fleeing into neighbouring Chad

The urgent need in western Darfur is civilian protection. Ironically, the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur had exactly this mandate. But it was withdrawn two years ago in a decision that now seems terribly misguided.

RSF forces are also besieging the capital of North Kordofan state, El-Obeid.

Should they capture it, the military will survive only in pockets west of the River Nile.

In South Kordofan, a rebel group, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North, waging its own insurgency for the past 12 years, has advanced towards the state capital, Kadugli, as the military finds itself over-stretched fighting the RSF.

Suddenly, there is a flurry of diplomatic activity. But there is no agreement on who should be in the lead.

Since the second week of the conflict, the US and Saudi Arabia have been convening ceasefire talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah.

But hopes for a cessation of hostilities - the most recent over the Eid al-Adha holiday - have come and gone without a slackening in the pace of violence.

The US and Saudi Arabia say they will float a new proposal in the coming days. They have also made efforts to bring the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on board, which is significant because the UAE is seen as the major backer of the RSF and, according to some reports, continues to arm them. The UAE has not commented on the reports.

Just over a month ago, unimpressed with the low energy of the African Union (AU) in responding to the crisis, East African leaders launched their own initiative under the auspices of the regional body, Igad.

A quartet - made up of the leaders of Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Djibouti - was appointed to seek a ceasefire, humanitarian access and political dialogue in order to restore Sudan's transition to democracy.

IMAGE SOURCE,

GETTY IMAGES

Image caption,

Air strikes and artillery shelling have led to the destruction of residential blocks in Khartoum

Kenya's President William Ruto - who heads the group - has been outspoken, describing the war as "senseless", condemning both warring parties for using their military power "to destroy the country and kill civilians", and warning that there are "already signs of genocide" in Darfur.

It is this group of leaders, meeting in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa on Monday, that took the first steps towards organising a regional intervention force.

Their second track is working with the Americans and Saudis to convene a face-to-face meeting between the warring generals - Burhan and Hemedti - to secure a ceasefire.

Track three is an "inclusive political process" to start by August. That requires bringing civilian representatives together, and giving them enough political backing so that they have real leverage in talks, as part of efforts to ensure that Sudan returns to the path of democracy.

But Gen Burhan rejected the initiative, claiming that Mr Ruto is biased towards the RSF. He also accuses leaders of some of the civilian parties of siding with Gen Hemedti - they counter that Gen Burhan has mobilized Islamist groups on his side. He first agreed, then refused, to attend Monday's meeting. A delegate from the RSF attended.

The military claims the legacy and legitimacy of government, though it took power in a coup with the RSF in 2019, before their leaders fell out, triggering the civil war.

The military certainly has a stronger claim to government than the RSF, which is a paramilitary group run by the Dagolo family, making money from its gold mines, mercenary activities and business empire.

It has shown no interest in governing, and has allied itself with Arab supremacists from Darfur and neighbouring countries.

Gen Burhan's handicap is that his forces cannot protect either the state or the population. In fact they don't even control the capital, the customary minimum threshold for being accepted as a legitimate government in Africa.

The US initially failed to signal its support for Mr Ruto's initiative, preferring to stick with the AU. But it has come around to engaging with what is the highest-level African intervention thus far.

Sudan's conflict is already destabilizing South Sudan. Gen Hemedti demanded that South Sudan cease paying the Sudanese government - meaning Gen Burhan - for use of the oil pipeline to Port Sudan, the only export route for that country's main source of revenue. South Sudan has not yet commented on the demand.

Over the weekend, Mr Ruto travelled to Chad to confer with President Mahamat Déby. Deeply fearful of the potential of the Darfur crisis to destabilize his country, Mr Déby held a crisis meeting with Darfuri leaders, including the commanders of the former rebel groups, to discuss how best to respond.

Egypt is already hosting more than 250,000 newly arrived refugees from Sudan. It fears that the ongoing destruction of Khartoum is leading to the inexorable exodus of the country's entire middle-class - Egyptians speak of two million and even more.

President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi announced a joint initiative with Qatar and is convening its own summit meeting.

Egypt's sympathies lie openly with Gen Burhan, which helps explain why he is stalling on the Igad plan. Mr Sisi sees Gen Burhan as his most reliable ally in Sudan, and is ready to tolerate a return of Sudanese Islamist groups - which have the backing of Qatar and Turkey - if it means stabilising the country.

But there are fears in some diplomatic circles that rival African and Arab peace processes will cancel each other out.

IMAGE SOURCE,

GETTY IMAGES

Image caption,

Little aid is getting into Sudan to help victims of the conflict

The United Nations has been sidelined. Its special representative for Sudan, Volker Perthes, was chosen for his technical skills in supporting institution-building during the now-aborted transition to democracy, rather than experience in mediating a brutal conflict.

Additionally, Gen Burhan has declared him persona non grata. Most Sudanese are dismayed by the UN's failures in Sudan and don't want to see it leading a diplomatic effort.

Similarly, Sudanese worry that the European Union's obsessive focus on migration means that they will deal with any leader who promises to stem the mass exodus.

Some Sudanese blame the EU for supporting the RSF in the past as part of a plan to control the country's borders - a claim the EU disputes.

The challenge of peace in Sudan is huge. The African leaders' plan is the boldest and most comprehensive yet, but there are still many roadblocks on the path to peace - not least the refusal of the warring sides to accept that there is no military solution to the conflict.

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US.

View original: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66169535

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