Sudan: Kordofan region becomes a new war zone. Dilling in South Kordofan is in peril due to armed conflict between three powerful warring parties

HERE is a copy of a Jan 12 post at X by Will Carter @WillCarter_NRC, Country Director for Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) in Sudan. Note that it says: "the entire State of South Kordofan has largely been cut off from vital humanitarian aid since April. Many civilians are trapped with no way to reach safer places. NRC staff in South Kordofan, like most civilians, have mostly been unable to communicate.  Kordofan region becomes a new war zone". Read full text below.

We're gravely concerned that another city in #Sudan, Dilling in South #Kordofan, is in terrible peril, due to armed conflict between three powerful warring parties.

Over the past few days, thousands of residents have been forced to leave, although the city is now surrounded by…

— William Carter (@WillCarter_NRC) January 12, 2024 

"We're gravely concerned that another city in #Sudan, Dilling in South #Kordofan, is in terrible peril, due to armed conflict between three powerful warring parties. 

Over the past few days, thousands of residents have been forced to leave, although the city is now surrounded by these military, paramilitary, and rebel forces and some are unable to flee. 

A looming threat of #ethnic violence hangs over Dilling and beyond. Further, the entire State of South Kordofan has largely been cut off from vital humanitarian aid since April, due to unsafe roads, denied permissions for #humanitarian workers, frequent clashes, and a significant presence of armed groups. 

Many civilians are trapped with no way to reach safer places. This may be the first time since April that Sudan has seen its three most powerful forces engaged in a single battle, marking a troubling new phase in this escalating and fragmenting civil war. 

Our staff in South Kordofan, like most civilians, have mostly been unable to communicate. Although we are in daily contact, how this armed conflict will affect the millions of people in the greater (and extremely neglected) Kordofan region is an anxious uncertainty. 

As the Kordofan region becomes a new #war zone, it's crucial that all warring parties prioritise protecting civilians, allow safe passage for those fleeing, and ensure unrestricted access for humanitarian efforts. Unfortunately, this hasn't happened so far."

9:55 AM · Jan 12, 2024
https://twitter.com/WillCarter_NRC/status/1745746200832176454

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Sudan: Humanitarian Update. 53 healthcare attacks, 11 dead. Aid workers attacked or detained, 18 killed

HERE is a full copy of a Press Release from OCHA

(United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs)

Dated Monday 07 August 2023

SUDAN: Humanitarian Update (7 August 2023) 

HIGHLIGHTS • More than 3 million people have been internally displaced across all of Sudan’s 18 states due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), as of 1 August. • About 2.2 million of all people internally displaced have fled from Khartoum State. • About 880,000 people have fled the conflict across Sudan’s borders into neighbouring countries, including Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Sudan, as of 3 August. • About 20.3 million people across Sudan – over 42 per cent of the population – are now facing high levels of acute food insecurity between July and September 2023. More than 6.2 million people are just one step away from famine. • On 3 August, the first humanitarian convoy to reach East Darfur since the start of the conflict arrived in the state, after a nine-day road trip. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) facilitated the first cross-border delivery of food items by the World Food Programme (WFP) from Chad into West Darfur, one of the most food-insecure states in the country. Those supplies arrived in West Darfur on 3 August.

SITUATION OVERVIEW As the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues across the country, more people are being displaced and humanitarian needs are increasing daily. To date, about 3.9 million people have been displaced inside and outside the country due to the conflict that erupted on 15 April. More than 3 million people have been displaced internally as of 1 August, according to the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM). People have been displaced across all 18 states, the majority of whom are in River Nile, Northern, North Darfur and White Nile states. About 71 per cent of those displaced are originally from Khartoum. The most severe clashes have taken place in the capital city of Khartoum and the state capital of West Darfur, Ag Geneina town. Additionally, ­fighting between SAF and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) has been reported in several locations across South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, resulting in civilian displacement. In addition, about 880,000 refugees, asylum seekers and returnees have crossed the border into neighbouring countries, including Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Sudan as of 3 August, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). Humanitarian needs across the country continue to rise. The conflict and economic crisis have driven about 20.3 million people across Sudan (over 42 per cent of the population) into high levels of acute food insecurity between July and September 2023, according to the latest report from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for Sudan. This is nearly double the number of food-insecure people compared to the last IPC analysis conducted in May 2022. Of these food-insecure people, 14 million (29 per cent of the population) are in crisis levels, IPC Phase 3. This means that people have less food to eat and are forced to adopt crisis-coping strategies, such as eating fewer meals a day. More than 6.2 million people (13 per cent of the population) are at emergency levels, IPC 4, just one step away from famine (IPC 5). They mainly reside in states with active conflict and are selling off assets to buy food.   On 30 July, Sudan's Civil Aviation Authority extended the closure of Sudanese airspace until 15 August 2023 to all air traffic, except for humanitarian aid and evacuation flights. Sudanese airspace has been closed to regular air traffic since mid-April, when the conflict between the SAF and RSF erupted. In addition, state authorities in North Kordofan imposed a curfew from 1900 to 0500 across the entire state, effective from 2 August until further notice.

STATE UPDATES The majority of people internally displaced due to the conflict are from Khartoum State. IOM estimates that 2.2 million people have fled the state capital Khartoum, with 2.16 million people going to other states, while about 38,400 people have been displaced in seven locations within the state, mainly in Bahri (Khartoum North), Jebel Awlia, Karrari, Khartoum, Sharg An Neel, Um Bada and Um Durman localities. Most of these displaced people are living with relatives, while the rest have rented accommodations. More than 420,100 people, mostly displaced from Khartoum, have taken refuge in 73 locations across six localities in Blue Nile State, mainly Ed Damazine, Ar Rusayirs, Al Kurmuk, At Tadamon, Geisan, and Wad Al Mahi localities. About 66 per cent of displaced households are seeking shelter with relatives, while the remaining 34 per cent have rented accommodations. On 9 July, an inter-agency assessment mission was carried out in Ed Damazine and Rusayris localities. The World Food Programme (WFP) plans to start a verification exercise for internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Khartoum in these two localities to provide them with food assistance. UNICEF plans to rehabilitate two water yards in Abu Hashim, Ed Damazine locality. On 25 July, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a measles outbreak in Wad Al Mahi locality, with 211 suspected cases and nine related deaths reported between 1 May and 24 July. Most of the cases were reported in Dam Town 7/ Umdarfa, while other cases were reported in Dam Town 1, 2 and 3. One suspected case each was reported in Ed Damazine and Geisan localities. A measles vaccination of 2,989 children under five years of age was carried out in Dam Town 7/ Umdarfa between 31 May and 2 June 2023. WHO and the State Ministry of Health (SMoH) are planning to vaccinate children under five years of age in Wad Al Mahi locality and catchment areas. About 297,000 people have arrived in North Darfur State after fleeing the conflict between SAF and RSF forces, according to IOM. Those displaced are taking refuge in 72 locations across Al Fasher, Al Koma, Al Lait, Al Malha, As Serief, At Tawisha, Dar As Salam, Kebkabiya, Kelemando, Kernoi, Kutum, Melit, Saraf Omra, Tawila, and Um Kadadah localities. Most (93 per cent) have been displaced from within the state, while the remaining displaced people have arrived from West Darfur, Khartoum, South Darfur and Central Darfur states. More than 43 per cent of those displaced are living with the host community, 17.5 per cent are living in IDP camps, and 6.5 per cent have taken refuge in schools or other public buildings. Northern State is hosting about 361,000 displaced people from Khartoum across 232 locations, according to IOM. All IDPs within Northern State have reportedly arrived from Khartoum. Displaced populations have been reported in Dabbah, Al Burgaig, Al Golid, Delgo, Dongola, Halfa and Merowe localities. Most of those displaced (80.96 per cent) are living with relatives, 8.7 per cent have rented accommodations, and 10.3 per cent have taken refuge in school premises or other public buildings. Many of the displaced people in Northern State are either waiting for the situation to improve in Khartoum or for their visas to Egypt to be processed, as it is close to both Argeen and Ashkeet border crossings. As people continue to move to Northern State, basic services are becoming stretched. On 27 July, the Medical Director of the Halfa Hospital indicated that remaining medicines and medical supplies in the hospital were only sufficient for one more week. Furthermore, the laboratory in Halfa Hospital lacks the supplies needed for different medical tests. Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services are also affected. Access to safe drinking water is one of the main needs for displaced people at gathering points or shelters, as are sanitation facilities. More than 15 per cent of those displaced by the conflict between the SAF and RSF have taken refuge in River Nile State, which hosts about 467,700 displaced people across 244 locations, according to IOM. All IDPs have reportedly arrived from Khartoum and have taken refuge in Hamad, Ad Damar, Al Buhaira, Al Matama, Atbara, Barbar and Shendi localities. About 78 per cent of the displaced population are living with relatives and 15 per cent have rented accommodations, while the remaining displaced people are either sheltering in schools and public buildings or out in the open in gathering sites.   West Darfur currently hosts about 119,500 displaced people in nine locations across the state, according to IOM. IDPs have been reported in Ag Geneina, Foro Baranga, Jebel Moon, Kulbus and Sirba localities. The vast majority of those displaced have reportedly come from within the state (99 per cent) while others came from Central Darfur, Khartoum and South Darfur. About 73 per cent of the displaced population have taken refuge in shelters, while 27 per cent are living with relatives. On 2 July 2023, inter-communal conflict between Arab and Masalit tribesmen spread to Murnie Town in Kereneik locality. An estimated 87,500 people (17,535 households) were reportedly displaced by this conflict within the state and into neighbouring South Darfur and West Darfur states. Due to insecurity and targeted killings, people from Ag Geneina, Habila, Beida, Forobaranga, Kreneik, Mornei and Sisi localities continue to cross the border into neighbouring Chad.   On 29 July, RSF – supported by Arab militias in more than 100 vehicles and on motorbikes – reportedly attacked Sirba Town (50 kilometres north of Ag Geneina Town), according to the head of the Government’s Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC), Adam Abdelnabi Al-Sheikh. The Commissioner reported that the entire town has been looted and burned, and an unspecified number of civilians have reportedly been killed. He also reported that about three-quarters of the town’s inhabitants have fled to Kondobei and Bir Dageeg villages in Sirba locality, while others crossed the border to Birak in neighbouring Chad. The remaining residents did not leave the town, as many were children, women and older or disabled people. After the attack on Sirba, the perpetrators went to Kondobei and Bir Dageeg villages, where they intimidated and looted residents’ homes, according to the HAC Commissioner. The de facto Wali (governor) of West Darfur formed a peace committee with representatives of the different tribes in Sirba locality to address the conflict and sign a reconciliation agreement between the tribes. More than 272,300 people have been displaced in 498 locations across White Nile State since the start of the conflict in mid-April, IOM reports. All of those displaced have reportedly arrived from Khartoum State and have taken refuge in Ad Diwaim, Aj Jabalain, Al Gitaina, As Salam/Ar Rawat, Guli, Kosti, Rabak, Tendalti and Um Rimta localities. More than half of the displaced population are living with relatives, 30 per cent are living in camp-like settlements, 9.8 per cent have rented accommodations, and the rest are staying in schools, public buildings or in open areas.

HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE AND CHALLENGES Since the start of the conflict in mid-April, humanitarians have worked to ensure the continued delivery of life-saving assistance to people in need, wherever and whenever possible. On 3 August, the first humanitarian convoy to reach East Darfur since the fighting began on 15 April arrived in the state, after a nine-day road trip. OCHA negotiated with the SAF, RSF, state governor, HAC, and community leaders in North and West Kordofan and East Darfur states for the movement of these trucks from White Nile to East Darfur. The SAF and RSF secured the roads in their areas of control, and community leaders supported the movement of the relief items between Tandulti and Um Rawaba in North Kordofan, and from El Fula in West Kordofan to the border of East Darfur state. The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) also facilitated the first cross-border delivery of food items by the World Food Programme (WFP) from Chad into West Darfur, one of the most food-insecure states in the country. Those supplies arrived in West Darfur on 3 August. Insecurity, bureaucratic access impediments, and looting of humanitarian premises and warehouses across the country continue to negatively impact the delivery of assistance. At least 18 aid workers have been killed, with many others injured or detained, since the start of the conflict in mid-April. Between 15 April and 3 August 2023, there have been 53 attacks on health care, resulting in 11 deaths and 38 injuries, according to the WHO Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA). These figures only represent attacks that WHO has been able to verify through its verification system. Attacks on health care include incidents involving hospitals, ambulances, laboratories, warehouses, health workers and patients. Some humanitarian organizations have also been forced to shutter offices or suspend operations in areas they are unable to access due to security concerns, mainly in Khartoum and the Darfur region. Any remaining resources will be used to scale up operations in accessible areas. Funding shortfalls, the limited capacity of humanitarian personnel and government counterparts on the ground, lack of fuel needed for the transportation of humanitarian supplies and staff, lack of access to money in banks, and difficulties in delivering humanitarian supplies to areas outside state capitals due to insecurity have also affected the humanitarian response. These challenges are further compounded by power outages, as well as poor internet and telephone connectivity.

CLUSTER UPDATES Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster: The Food Security and Livelihoods (FSL) Cluster partners continue to support people affected by the conflict with life-saving food and livelihood assistance. Since mid-April, FSL partners reached 2.03 million people with life-saving food assistance and 45,000 people with life-saving livelihoods assistance. FSL partners also distributed 2,800 metric tons (MT) of seeds benefitting 280,000 people. FSL partners plan to distribute a total of 8,840 MT of cereal seeds to 1 million vulnerable farmers for the planting season. The conflict is undermining the current planting season, coupled with soaring prices of fertilizer and seeds, which is impacting the food security and livelihoods situation in Sudan. The main livestock vaccination laboratory in Khartoum has been closed due to the conflict, and the resulting unavailability of livestock vaccines will also impact people’s livelihoods. Refugee Consultation Forum (RCF): Following the start of the conflict between the SAF and RSF, refugees are facing acute protection risks, including heightened risks of detention, extortion and deportation, according to Refugee Consultation Forum (RCF) partners. There are reports of refugees being stopped by armed elements or prevented from moving from one place to another. Refugees in White Nile State are facing critical gaps in services. Refugee camps were already below SPHERE[1] standards before the conflict, due to chronic funding shortages and a lack of durable solutions, and the fighting that has continued since mid-April has only made conditions worse. As people started arriving in the state from Khartoum, there has been an increase in the number of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) cases, as well as a suspected measles outbreak. About 300 South Sudanese refugee children in the state have died due to suspected measles and malnutrition, according to RCF partners. Since the start of the conflict, an estimated 187,333 refugee movements to new locations in the country have been reported. Most of these movements have been from Khartoum to White Nile State, with South Sudanese refugees accounting for more than 144,000 of the total. RCF partners have verified that 71 per cent are internal secondary movements, of which 16 per cent are women, 14 per cent are men, 34 per cent are girls, and 36 per cent are boys. Between 26 July and 1 August, RCF partners continued to respond to the needs of refugees across the country. In East Darfur, 633 South Sudanese refugees were reached with general protection awareness-raising activities. In South Kordofan and Gedaref states, 1,310 outpatient consultations were provided, and 393 Ethiopian refugees received mental health and psycho-social support (PSS) services. Case management continues to be provided for survivors of gender-based violence (GBV) and child protection cases, ensuring access to specialized services.  Logistics Cluster: The Logistics Cluster is currently providing storage services to partners at four locations, including in Port Sudan (Red Sea State), Wad Madani (Aj Jazirah State), Kosti (White Nile State), and Gedaref Town (Gedaref State). In the past week, the Logistics Cluster has provided storage space of up to 2,542 cubic meters for four partners at warehouses in Port Sudan, Wad Madani and Kosti. The cluster is in the process of contracting 190 square meters of temperature-controlled storage space for WFP. [1] The SPHERE standards are a set of minimum standards in humanitarian response for water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH); food security and nutrition; shelter and settlement; and health assistance.

FUNDING Humanitarian partners urgently require additional resources to scale up relief efforts across Sudan. The revised Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) requires US$2.6 billion to provide life-saving multi-sectoral assistance and protection services to 18.1 million people through the end of this year. To date, the appeal is only 24.5 per cent is funded, with $628 million received as of 6 August, according to the Financial Tracking Service.

Download the Humanitarian Update here

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South Sudan’s Kiir in talks with SPLM-N over attacks in Sudan's South Kordofan and Blue Nile states

Report from Sudan Tribune - sudantribune.com
Published on Thursday 20 July 2023 - here is a full copy:

Sudan’s Kiir in talks with SPLM-N over South Kordofan attacks

July 20, 2023 (JUBA) – South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir is in talks with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) leaders following reports of resumption of hostilities in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, an aide said.

The presidential advisor on national security, Tut Gatluak Manime told Sudan Tribune on Thursday that Kiir discussed with SPLM-N leaders prospects for peace and the need to cease military hostilities in the two areas and the whole of Sudan.

“The president has been engaging different leaders who participated and signed the Juba Peace agreement, including those who did not sign it to update them on his regional activities and his efforts to solicit their views on the comprehensive approach following his participation in the recent summit of the heads of state and government from countries sharing direct borders with Sudan”, he explained.

A supporter of the SPLM-N faction led by Abdel Aziz Adam Al-Hilu claimed they do not attack territories held by Sudan armed forces, but are trying to provide protection to areas under their control to avoid what happens in Darfur, where civilians and civil settlements as used shields by armed groups fighting each other.

“The SPLM-N is the people’s movement and it has the right and responsibilities to protect lives and properties of the people under its control. This is what is happening in South Kordofan and Blue Nile areas.  As far as I know, the SPLA-N gallant forces do not carry out attacks. They don’t attack government-held territories, they are protecting our own legitimate territory”, the supporter who preferred anonymity owing to the sensitivity of the matter, told Sudan Tribune.

The SPLM-N and the Sudanese government had previously signed an agreement to halt hostilities, allowing humanitarian aid access to the region from Sudanese territory and enabling people’s movement to and from SPLM-controlled areas.

Since July 15, the SPLA-N led by al-Hilu resumed military operations in areas neighbouring the cities of Dilling and Kadugli, amid calls for cessation of hostilities.

On Wednesday, South Sudanese government expressed deep regret over the recent resumption of the SPLM-N attacks in the South Kordofan state of Sudan, raising concerns about potential repercussions on the stability of the region.

In an interview with Sudan Tribune, Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation minister, Deng Dau Malek said he was dismayed over the renewed hostilities in the two areas, calling on “all parties concerned” to immediately halt military operations and focus on maintaining peace, security and stability of the region.

The SPLM-N, which has been fighting the government in the South Kordofan and the Blue Nile states, also known as Two Areas, since June 2011, split in 2017 into two factions, one is led by Abdel-Aziz al-Hilu and the other is led by Malik Agar.

The split within the rebel movement was a result of differences over a number of organisational matters as well as the position to adopt in the peace talks.

Al-Hilu who was the deputy chairman blamed the negotiating team led by Yasir Arman for ignoring the demand of the Nuba Mountains for self-determination.

However, during the last round of talks in February 2018, the government of Sudan and al-Hilu faction of SPLM-N failed to reach a cessation of hostilities agreement.

In 2020, the SPLM-N signed a Declaration of Principles (DoP) with the Sudanese government. The DoP affirmed the need to recognize and accommodate the different racial, ethnic, religious and cultural diversities in the country. (ST) 

Image: South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (Getty)

View original: https://sudantribune.com/article275310/

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Agar pleads with SA to intervene in Sudan conflict, calls for international assistance for internal peace

Report from SABC News (South African Broadcasting Corporation)

Published Saturday 15 July 2023, 1:32 PM - here is a full copy:

Sudan’s Vice President calls for international assistance for internal peace

Image: Reuters

Sudanese Transitional Military Council, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo meets leader of Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North, Malik Agar in Juba

The Vice President of Sudan Malik Agar says the international community must assist Sudan to achieve peace. Agar believes that Sudan’s problems are more internal than external.

The ceasefires have failed to yield results, and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has now announced that his country will bring the warring factions together.

Speaking exclusively to SABC, Agar, who is in South Africa for consultations with government officials, has called on President Cyril Ramaphosa to redouble his efforts at the African Union to bring peace to that country.

Vice President Malik Agar pleads with SA to intervene in Sudan conflict:

This week, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres issued a warning that Sudan has reached a crisis in relation to the escalating conflict in that country.

Agar goes on to describe how peace agreements are being dishonored, which leads to a vicious cycle of violence, as well as how Sudanese diversity is mismanaged. He says there is a lack of a social justice policy, which leads to regional disparities.

The Vice-President acknowledges the presence of foreign elements interfering in Sudan, with diverse objectives such as economics, security, reinvestment, and military interests. He says that the protracted conflict will force the Sudanese people to reconsider their country’s management and reclaim power.

View original: https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/sudans-vice-president-calls-for-international-assistance-for-internal-peace/

[Ends]

Sudan crisis is destabilising South Sudan. African and Arab peacemakers working hard to help save Sudan

"Sudan's conflict is already destabilizing South Sudan. Gen Hemedti demanded that South Sudan cease paying the Sudanese government - meaning Gen Burhan - for use of the oil pipeline to Port Sudan, the only export route for that country's main source of revenue. South Sudan has not yet commented on the demand.

Over the weekend, Mr Ruto travelled to Chad to confer with President Mahamat Déby. Deeply fearful of the potential of the Darfur crisis to destabilize his country, Mr Déby held a crisis meeting with Darfuri leaders, including the commanders of the former rebel groups, to discuss how best to respond." 

Read more in a report at BBC News
By Alex de Waal
Africa analyst
Published Thursday 13 July 2023 - here is a full copy:

Sudan crisis: From Ruto to Sisi, leaders vie to drive peace process

IMAGE SOURCE,

GETTY IMAGES

In a clear sign of their seriousness to end the escalating conflict in Sudan, four East African states, led by Kenya, are pushing for the deployment of a regional force to protect civilians and ensure that humanitarian aid reaches millions of people trapped in the war zone.

But getting the agreement of the warring factions will be a tough call, as they have shown no interest in anything other than military victory since the conflict broke out in mid-April.

Meanwhile Egypt is hosting a summit of Sudan's neighbours to discuss ways to end the conflict between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The military, headed by Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, controls most of eastern and central Sudan, and is fighting to hold on to its bases in the capital, Khartoum.

The rival RSF, led by Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, known as "Hemedti", has made advances in Khartoum, where its fighters have been accused of murders, rapes and occupying and pillaging hospitals.

The military bombs RSF positions relentlessly in the capital, reportedly causing widespread civilian casualties.

Over the media horizon, horrifying violence rages in Sudan's western region of Darfur.

The RSF has overrun most of the region. Along with their allied Arab militia, RSF fighters have driven out many thousands of ethnic Masalit from their historic homeland in western Darfur.

They burned the palace of the sultan, the group's customary leader. When the governor, Khamis Abbakar, called it "genocide" men in RSF uniform abducted and killed him.

More than 160,000 Masalit refugees have fled across the border to Chad.

The RSF also ransacked the city of Zalingei, home to the Fur community, and encircled the two biggest cities in the region, al-Fashir and Nyala.

Many Darfuris fear this is the culmination of a long-standing plan to transform the ethnically-mixed region into an Arab-ruled domain.

IMAGE SOURCE,

REUTERS

Image caption,

With Darfur worst-affected by the conflict, people are fleeing into neighbouring Chad

The urgent need in western Darfur is civilian protection. Ironically, the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur had exactly this mandate. But it was withdrawn two years ago in a decision that now seems terribly misguided.

RSF forces are also besieging the capital of North Kordofan state, El-Obeid.

Should they capture it, the military will survive only in pockets west of the River Nile.

In South Kordofan, a rebel group, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North, waging its own insurgency for the past 12 years, has advanced towards the state capital, Kadugli, as the military finds itself over-stretched fighting the RSF.

Suddenly, there is a flurry of diplomatic activity. But there is no agreement on who should be in the lead.

Since the second week of the conflict, the US and Saudi Arabia have been convening ceasefire talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah.

But hopes for a cessation of hostilities - the most recent over the Eid al-Adha holiday - have come and gone without a slackening in the pace of violence.

The US and Saudi Arabia say they will float a new proposal in the coming days. They have also made efforts to bring the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on board, which is significant because the UAE is seen as the major backer of the RSF and, according to some reports, continues to arm them. The UAE has not commented on the reports.

Just over a month ago, unimpressed with the low energy of the African Union (AU) in responding to the crisis, East African leaders launched their own initiative under the auspices of the regional body, Igad.

A quartet - made up of the leaders of Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Djibouti - was appointed to seek a ceasefire, humanitarian access and political dialogue in order to restore Sudan's transition to democracy.

IMAGE SOURCE,

GETTY IMAGES

Image caption,

Air strikes and artillery shelling have led to the destruction of residential blocks in Khartoum

Kenya's President William Ruto - who heads the group - has been outspoken, describing the war as "senseless", condemning both warring parties for using their military power "to destroy the country and kill civilians", and warning that there are "already signs of genocide" in Darfur.

It is this group of leaders, meeting in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa on Monday, that took the first steps towards organising a regional intervention force.

Their second track is working with the Americans and Saudis to convene a face-to-face meeting between the warring generals - Burhan and Hemedti - to secure a ceasefire.

Track three is an "inclusive political process" to start by August. That requires bringing civilian representatives together, and giving them enough political backing so that they have real leverage in talks, as part of efforts to ensure that Sudan returns to the path of democracy.

But Gen Burhan rejected the initiative, claiming that Mr Ruto is biased towards the RSF. He also accuses leaders of some of the civilian parties of siding with Gen Hemedti - they counter that Gen Burhan has mobilized Islamist groups on his side. He first agreed, then refused, to attend Monday's meeting. A delegate from the RSF attended.

The military claims the legacy and legitimacy of government, though it took power in a coup with the RSF in 2019, before their leaders fell out, triggering the civil war.

The military certainly has a stronger claim to government than the RSF, which is a paramilitary group run by the Dagolo family, making money from its gold mines, mercenary activities and business empire.

It has shown no interest in governing, and has allied itself with Arab supremacists from Darfur and neighbouring countries.

Gen Burhan's handicap is that his forces cannot protect either the state or the population. In fact they don't even control the capital, the customary minimum threshold for being accepted as a legitimate government in Africa.

The US initially failed to signal its support for Mr Ruto's initiative, preferring to stick with the AU. But it has come around to engaging with what is the highest-level African intervention thus far.

Sudan's conflict is already destabilizing South Sudan. Gen Hemedti demanded that South Sudan cease paying the Sudanese government - meaning Gen Burhan - for use of the oil pipeline to Port Sudan, the only export route for that country's main source of revenue. South Sudan has not yet commented on the demand.

Over the weekend, Mr Ruto travelled to Chad to confer with President Mahamat Déby. Deeply fearful of the potential of the Darfur crisis to destabilize his country, Mr Déby held a crisis meeting with Darfuri leaders, including the commanders of the former rebel groups, to discuss how best to respond.

Egypt is already hosting more than 250,000 newly arrived refugees from Sudan. It fears that the ongoing destruction of Khartoum is leading to the inexorable exodus of the country's entire middle-class - Egyptians speak of two million and even more.

President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi announced a joint initiative with Qatar and is convening its own summit meeting.

Egypt's sympathies lie openly with Gen Burhan, which helps explain why he is stalling on the Igad plan. Mr Sisi sees Gen Burhan as his most reliable ally in Sudan, and is ready to tolerate a return of Sudanese Islamist groups - which have the backing of Qatar and Turkey - if it means stabilising the country.

But there are fears in some diplomatic circles that rival African and Arab peace processes will cancel each other out.

IMAGE SOURCE,

GETTY IMAGES

Image caption,

Little aid is getting into Sudan to help victims of the conflict

The United Nations has been sidelined. Its special representative for Sudan, Volker Perthes, was chosen for his technical skills in supporting institution-building during the now-aborted transition to democracy, rather than experience in mediating a brutal conflict.

Additionally, Gen Burhan has declared him persona non grata. Most Sudanese are dismayed by the UN's failures in Sudan and don't want to see it leading a diplomatic effort.

Similarly, Sudanese worry that the European Union's obsessive focus on migration means that they will deal with any leader who promises to stem the mass exodus.

Some Sudanese blame the EU for supporting the RSF in the past as part of a plan to control the country's borders - a claim the EU disputes.

The challenge of peace in Sudan is huge. The African leaders' plan is the boldest and most comprehensive yet, but there are still many roadblocks on the path to peace - not least the refusal of the warring sides to accept that there is no military solution to the conflict.

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US.

View original: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66169535

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