US Secretary Blinken's video message for the people of Sudan: Civilians must define Sudan’s path forward

NOTE from Sudan Watch Ed: In the following video, transcript and report featuring a message for the people of Sudan from US Secretary of State Mr Antony Blinken, I hope he's saying what I think and hope he's saying. 

Maybe I'm wrong but this idea kept going through my mind over past 2 weeks: why don’t Sudanese civilians in Resistance and Neighbourhood Committees go ahead and start forming a civilian-led government for Sudan.

Or maybe I’m overtired and reading too much into the message from Secretary Blinken or it’s just wishful thinking on my part. Whatever, his message clearly says: "civilians must define Sudan’s path forward".  

Surely if Sudanese civilians form a government now, they'll be ready soon. Here is the video of Mr Blinken's message for the people of Sudan plus a transcript I made, and a report at Radio Dabanga (beige highlight is mine).

Note, Mr Blinken says ceasefire will be backed by a remote monitoring mechanism. Perhaps it's satellite technology to monitor 24/7 and prove to a court, such as the International Criminal Court, who did what, where, when.

People across the world will support the Sudanese civilians endeavour. No doubt if they convey what they need via social media and mainstream news reports, it will be given. God bless Sudan and South Sudan.

Transcript of video message for the people of Sudan from US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken dated Tuesday 23 May 2023:

"This message is for the people of Sudan. 

The violence committed by the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces over the past month has been tragic; senseless, and devastating. The whole world has been united in calling for an end to this conflict and insisting on a negotiated solution. 

The seven-day ceasefire that goes into effect today is designed to allow for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and repair of essential services and infrastructure. Agreement by the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces to this short-term ceasefire agreement was the result of intensive diplomacy and the close partnership of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States. 

It will be backed by a remote monitoring mechanism supported by the United States. If the ceasefire is violated, we’ll know. And we will hold violators accountable through our sanctions and other tools at our disposal. 

We facilitated this ceasefire but it’s the responsibility of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces to implement it. The Jeddah talks have had a narrow focus - ending violence and bringing assistance to the Sudanese people. A permanent resolution of this conflict will require  much more. 

I want to be clear that Sudans civilians must be the ones to define Sudan’s path going forward. You should lead a political process to restore Sudan’s democratic transition and form a civilian government. 

Sudan’s political future belongs to you the people of your great great nation. Your military should withdraw from governance and focus on defending the national from external threats. 

The Unites States of America supports a democratic government that represents the full diversity of the Sudanese people, including populations from the periphery who have long been marginalised and women whose voices have long been ignored.

Only a civilian government can succeed in delivering stability and security, and fulfilling your aspirations for freedom, for peace, for justice. 

We have always been a partner to the people of Sudan as you bravely resisted military dictatorship and demanded civilian rule and you can count on us to remain by your side until you achieve this goal."

Source: https://youtu.be/6HgWvUzYGQA

Description posted at the video:

May 23, 2023  #StateDepartment #DepartmentofState #Diplomacy

Secretary Blinken's video message to the Sudanese people.

Under the leadership of the President and Secretary of State, the U.S. Department of State leads America’s foreign policy through diplomacy, advocacy, and assistance by advancing the interests of the American people, their safety and economic prosperity. On behalf of the American people we promote and demonstrate democratic values and advance a free, peaceful, and prosperous world.

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______________________________________________

Report at Radio Dabanga -dabangasudan.org

Dated Tuesday 23 May 2023 - full copy:

SA Secretary Blinken: ‘Civilians must define Sudan’s path forward’

US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken (Photo: US Gov) 

Secretary Blinken's video message to the Sudanese people

(WASHINGTON) -  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has encouraged the warring Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to abide by the seven-day humanitarian ceasefire that took effect last night. In a video message to the people of Sudan, he highlights that Sudan’s civilian population must define the way forward.

The USA is a co-broker with Saudi Arabia of the Jeddah talks that led to the short-term ceasefire agreement on Saturday. In light of frequent violations of previous truces by both sides, Blinken reminds parties that the agreement includes monitoring by a remote US-Saudi-international monitoring mechanism. “If the ceasefire is violated, we’ll know. And we will hold violators accountable through our sanctions and other tools at our disposal,” Blinken warns.

In his video message, Secretary Blinken notes that “the violence committed by the SAF and RSF over the past month has been tragic, senseless, and devastating. The whole world has been united in calling for an end to this conflict and insisting on a negotiated solution.

‘If the ceasefire is violated, we’ll know. And we will hold violators accountable…’

He explains that the seven-day ceasefire is designed to allow for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and repair of essential services and infrastructure. Blinken highlights that the agreement by the SAF and the RSF to this short-term ceasefire was the result of intensive diplomacy and the close partnership of USA and Saudi Arabia.

“We facilitated this ceasefire but it’s the responsibility of the SAF and RSF to implement it,” he says. “The Jeddah talks have had a narrow focus – ending violence and bringing assistance to the Sudanese people. A permanent resolution of this conflict will require much more.”

‘Sudan’s civilians must be the ones to define Sudan’s path going forward…’

Addressing the Sudanese public directly, Blinken emphasises: “I want to be clear that Sudan’s civilians must be the ones to define Sudan’s path going forward. You should lead a political process to restore Sudan’s democratic transition and form a civilian government.

‘Your military should withdraw from governance and focus on defending the nation from external threats…’

“Sudan’s political future belongs to you, the people of your great nation. Your military should withdraw from governance and focus on defending the nation from external threats. The USA supports a democratic government that represents the full diversity of the Sudanese people, including populations from the periphery who have long been marginalised and women whose voices have long been ignored.

“Only a civilian government can succeed in delivering stability and security, and fulfilling your aspirations for freedom, for peace, for justice. We have always been a partner to the people of Sudan as you bravely resisted military dictatorship and demanded civilian rule and you can count on us to remain by your side until you achieve this goal,” Blinken’s message concludes.

$245 million US aid

In a separate statement from Washington today, the US Dept of State says that last week, the USA announced $245 million in humanitarian assistance to Sudan and neighbouring countries countries experiencing the impacts of the ongoing humanitarian crisis. These funds include nearly $143 million from the Department of State’s Bureau for Population, Refugee and Migration and $103 million in additional humanitarian assistance from the US Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance.

“With this funding, our humanitarian partners can respond to the new needs arising from the current conflict, which has displaced approximately 840,000 people within the country and forced another 250,000 to flee since April 15,” the US State Dept says.

According to the statement, this announcement brings total US humanitarian assistance for Sudan and neighbours Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic to nearly $880 million in the 2023 financial year.

Sanctions

On May 2, US President Joe Biden called the violence in Sudan a ‘tragedy’, and signed an executive order paving the way for the USA to impose sanctions on “certain persons destabilising Sudan and undermining the goal of democratic transition”. The order extends existing sanctions but does not impose any specific additional sanctions at this time.

In a statement following the signing, Biden called the current conflict in Sudan “a betrayal of the Sudanese people’s clear demand for civilian government and a transition to democracy.”

Biden’s order expands the scope of the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13067 of November 3, 1997 (blocking Sudanese government property and prohibiting transactions with Sudan), and expanded by Executive Order 13400 of April 26, 2006 (blocking property of persons in connection with the conflict in Sudan’s Darfur region), finding that “the situation in Sudan, including the military’s seizure of power in October 2021 and the outbreak of inter-service fighting in April 2023, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the USA.”

View original: https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/sa-secretary-blinken-civilians-must-define-sudans-path-forward

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Sudan's military fights to keep Wadi Saeedna airbase

Hat tip with thanks to Cameron Hudson for this toys for the boys' war pr0n. I wonder if this technology, combined with satellite imagery, is the "international-supported ceasefire monitoring mechanism" being hinted at.

A recent video reportedly of a SAF drone strike on a RSF target. I was not under the impression that SAF had armed drones. Can others confirm the veracity of this video and who may have provided them drones? Could be a new turning point despite just signing Jeddah deal. pic.twitter.com/OOzH39ak9R

— Cameron Hudson (@_hudsonc) May 21, 2023

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MEANWHILE, SAF's fighting to keep Wadi Saeedna airbase. Read more.

Report at BBC News

By Zeinab Mohammed Salih, Khartoum

Dated Sunday 21 May 2023 - full copy:

Sudan conflict: Army fights to keep Wadi Saeedna airbase, residents say

Sudan's army is resisting an attempt by paramilitaries to advance towards its main airbase near the capital Khartoum, residents have said.

The airfield is used by the military to carry out air strikes on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and was also used by foreign governments to evacuate their nationals early in the conflict.

The fighting comes despite the announcement of a new seven-day truce.

Previous ceasefires have collapsed within minutes of being called.

A US-Saudi statement said the latest truce would come into effect on Monday evening, and would be different as it provides for a "ceasefire monitoring mechanism".

The US and Saudi Arabia have been brokering talks between the army and the RSF in the Saudi city of Jeddah for the past two weeks in an attempt to end the conflict that broke out on 15 April.

Most people I spoke to in Khartoum said a ceasefire would hold only if international monitors - backed by United Nations (UN) peacekeepers - are deployed.

In a sign of their lack of confidence in the latest ceasefire deal, bus loads of residents are continuing to flee Khartoum and its sister cities across the River Nile, Bahri and Omdurman, as there has been no let-up in the fighting.

RSF fighters in about 20 trucks are positioned east of the Nile, and are trying to cross a bridge to reach the Wadi Saeedna airfield.

The Sudanese military has retaliated by firing heavy artillery.

The battle has been going on for several days, but it has escalated.

"It feels like doomsday from early this [Sunday] morning. I think they will torture us until this ceasefire comes into effect," said a resident in Bahri's Khojalab suburb.

The military cannot afford to lose control of the airfield, as it is key to its strategy of pounding the RSF from the air as it fights to regain control of Khartoum and the other two cities.

An air strike also took place in Omdurman on Sunday, and explosions could be heard in its southern areas.

Earlier, the US State Department acknowledged previous failed attempts at brokering peace in Sudan, but said there was a key difference this time.

"Unlike previous ceasefires, the agreement reached in Jeddah was signed by the parties and will be supported by a US-Saudi and international-supported ceasefire monitoring mechanism," it said, without giving more details.

Sudan's military said it was committed to the agreement. The RSF has not commented.

The deal also allows for the delivery of humanitarian aid.

Stocks of food, money and essentials have fast declined and aid groups repeatedly complained of being unable to provide sufficient assistance in Khartoum.

Both the regular army and the RSF have been urged to allow the distribution of humanitarian aid, restore essential services and withdraw forces from hospitals.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Twitter: "It is past time to silence the guns and allow unhindered humanitarian access.

"I implore both sides to uphold this agreement - the eyes of the world are watching."

View original: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65662939

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US Secretary Blinken’s call with Sudan's Burhan today

Gobbledegook. Gen Burhan sacked Hemeti who seems to have disappeared.

.@SecBlinken spoke today with Sudanese General Abdel Fattah al Burhan regarding the ongoing talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. https://t.co/KElh3l9sO6

— Matthew Miller (@StateDeptSpox) May 20, 2023

Secretary Blinken’s Call with Sudanese General Burhan
READOUT
OFFICE OF THE SPOKESPERSON
Saturday 20 May 2023
The following is attributable to Spokesperson Matthew Miller:
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, Commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces, about the ongoing talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia aimed at reaching an effective short-term ceasefire to facilitate delivery of humanitarian assistance and restoration of essential services.  In this step-by-step process, the Secretary urged flexibility and leadership.  The Secretary again condemned the violence by both parties that has resulted in the death and injury of many Sudanese civilians, underscoring that agreement in Jeddah would allow the provision of humanitarian assistance and essential services that are desperately needed by the Sudanese people.  The United States is unwavering in its support of the democratic aspirations of the Sudanese people for a civilian government and a stable, democratic Sudan.

View original: https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-sudanese-general-burhan/
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U.S. Statement on the signing of a Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan

We are pleased to announce that representatives of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces signed a Declaration of Commitment recognizing the obligation to facilitate humanitarian action to meet the emergency needs of civilians in Sudan. https://t.co/IocYT7RRr0

— Matthew Miller (@StateDeptSpox) May 12, 2023

URGENT FROM ALEX DE WAAL - Sudan crisis: Mediators over a barrel in mission to end fighting

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Here is Alex de Waal’s latest take on the current Sudan crisis. Fortunately, it was published yesterday in the form of a carefully worded piece for BBC News. See copy below. 

As usual, it didn't disappoint. I had to read it six times to see if there was any wiggle room in the stance he has taken. There is none, it is crystal clear with no way of misunderstanding this: speed is of the essence.

While reading it, I agreed with every word but my heart sank at not seeing anything that was news to me.

The overall message he conveys in his analysis, without appearing to be dramatic, is the urgent need for speed: that there's no time left to lose on haggling for peace. We're talking hours and days, not weeks.

Also, he didn’t mention justice or for Messrs Burhan and Hemeti to be called to account for their crimes. It seems to me that Alex's advice to the current mediators is this: appease them, agree amnesty for war crimes.

So, after giving it much thought, and it pains me to say this, one side will have to be backed in order to give Sudanese civilians a chance to run their country and army, which means backing Mr Burhan and SAF.

Rewarding Hemeti, treating him as a victor would make the Janjaweed victorious. Unthinkable. He must not have any role leading any part of Sudan or South Sudan. Retire him to Chad where he was born, or to the ICC. 

Over the past 20 years here at Sudan Watch, I've argued strongly in favour of the African Union, for Africa be governed by Africa-led solutions and initiatives, for it to be empowered and lead without outside interference and to be given a seat on the UN Security Council.

Please God stop the fighting, let the world unite in supporting Sudan and South Sudan by providing them with what they need, humanitarian assistance and access to aid until they can stand on their own feet. 

And let them decide what to do with the RSF. Hopefully, Hemeti will disappear peaceably, forever. 

Wish I had time to write a better intro instead of this half-baked draft but as Alex shows in his heavy-duty not light-weight piece, if one reads it carefully: there is not a minute to waste. Seriously. Every minute counts.

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Report from BBC News

By ALEX DE WAAL

Dated Monday 08 May 2023 - full copy:

Sudan crisis: Mediators over a barrel in mission to end fighting

AFP

With the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, transformed from tranquil city to war zone, Saudi Arabia and the US have called the warring parties to Jeddah to seek agreement on a ceasefire. But as Sudan expert Alex de Waal says, it will just be a short-term, emergency step.

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There is a dilemma for mediators: whatever decision they take on the format and agenda for emergency talks will determine the path of peace-making in Sudan through to its conclusion.

To silence the guns, the American and Saudi diplomats will deal only with the rival generals who have each sent a three-person negotiating team to Jeddah. 

The agenda is a humanitarian ceasefire, a monitoring mechanism and corridors for aid. Neither side wants to open negotiations towards a political agreement.

The civilian parties and neighbourhood resistance committees, whose non-violent protests brought down the authoritarian regime of long-time leader Omar al-Bashir four years ago, will be onlookers.

It will not be easy to get the two generals to agree to any kind of ceasefire.

The army chief, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, will insist that he represents the legitimate government. He will label Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as "Hemedti", as a rebel.

But Hemedti, his de facto deputy until the clashes, will demand equal status for the two sides.

He will want on a freeze-in-place, leaving his paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters in control of much of Khartoum. Gen Burhan will require a return to the positions in the days before the clashes began.

Getting a compromise means hard bargaining with the generals. 

The mediators need to gain their confidence and assure them that, if they make concessions now, that will not leave them exposed and vulnerable.

The downside is that the two warring parties will then demand the dominant role in political talks and an agenda that suits their interests.

One thing on which Burhan and Hemedti - and the Arab neighbours - agree is that they do not want a democratic government, which had been on the cards before the fighting began. The two military men had run the country since the 2019 which ousted Bashir, refusing to hand power to civilians.

AFP

The real losers are the civilians who helped oust Bashir in 2019 and want elections and a democratic government

Another point of agreement will be amnesty for war crimes.

Negotiations dominated by the generals are likely to end in a peace agreement in which they share the spoils, setting back the prospects for democracy for many more years.

But if the fighting is not stopped soon, Sudan faces state collapse.

Abdalla Hamdok - prime minister of the joint military-civilian government ousted by the generals in 2021 - has said the country's new war threatened to be worse than Syria or Yemen. 

He might have added, worse than Darfur.

Frontline reinforcements

There is a grim predictability about how Sudan's civil wars unfold.

In the opening days, the military commanders - army generals and rebel leaders - are driven by an angry resolve to land a knockout blow on the other side.

Combat is fierce as each side focuses its attacks, and it is easy to identify who is on which side - and who is staying neutral.

AFP

The RSF has its roots in Darfur where some fighters are alleged to have been involved in what the International Criminal Court considers a genocide

We saw this when the Sudanese civil war broke out in 1983, again in Darfur 20 years later, and in the conflicts in Abyei, Heglig and the Nuba Mountains close to the north-south border at the time when South Sudan separated in 2011.

The first clashes in South Sudan's own civil war in 2013 also looked like this.

On 15 April, when fighting erupted between the army and the RSF, each side vowed to destroy the other.

They concentrated their firepower on each other's strategic positions in the capital, regardless of the massive destruction inflicted on the city and its residents.

Past wars show that if the fighting is not quickly halted, it escalates.

Each side brings reinforcements to the frontline, bids to win over local armed groups that are not yet involved, and solicits help from friendly foreign backers. 

We are in that phase now.

The regular conflict script tells us the adversaries will not be able to sustain their cohesion for long. They will run low on weapons, logistics and money, and cut deals to get more.

The fissures within each fighting coalition will begin to show. Other armed groups will join the fray.

Local communities will arm themselves for self-defence. Outsiders will become entangled. 

All of this is already happening. It is most advanced in Darfur, Hemedti's homeland, which is in flames again.

Up to now, we have not seen civilians being systematically targeted because of their ethnic identity.

But that is a major risk, and as soon as fighters on one side commit mass atrocities, the antagonism will escalate.

The next stage would be conflict spreading across the country, igniting local disputes as it goes.

Armed groups will fragment and coalesce, fighting for control over the lucrative locations such as roads, airports, gold mines and aid distribution centres. 

In Darfur, after the fierce battles and massacres of 2003-04, the region collapsed into anarchy.

The head of the joint African Union-United Nations mission called it "a war of all against all".

This was the lawless political marketplace in which Hemedti thrived, using cash and violence to build a power base.

There is an all-too-real scenario in which the whole of Sudan comes to resemble Darfur.

'Abandoned in moment of need'

The US and Saudi mediators are high-level and even-handed. Unlike other Arab neighbours - Egypt backs Burhan and the United Arab Emirates has ties to Hemedti - Riyadh does not have a favourite. 

The US is threatening sanctions. That is unlikely to deter the generals - Sudan has been under American sanctions since 1989, and military-owned businesses thrived nonetheless. 

GETTY IMAGES

The one thing Gen Burhan (R) and Hemedti (L) are likely to agree about is that neither wants a civilian government

Effective pressure needs international consensus. Everyone - including China and Russia - agrees that the fighting is a disaster.

Protocol at the UN puts the responsibility on its African members to raise the issue at the Security Council. 

Up to now, they have not acted, and the African Union has not even convened its Peace and Security Council.

In the meantime, every passing day risks the war becoming intractable.

Silencing the guns today is a hard-enough task. It would be far harder if there were dozens of fissile armed groups claiming a seat at the table.

What is unprecedented about today's armed conflict is that the battleground is in Khartoum. 

It is generating a humanitarian crisis quite different to the rural displacement and hunger that the country's aid workers have dealt with over the decades.

Civilians trapped in urban neighbourhoods may benefit from old-style food convoys, but they also need utilities - electricity, water, and telecoms. And they desperately need cash. 

With the central bank burned and local commercial bank branches closed, some people rely on mobile phone banking services. Others are penniless.

With the UN and most foreign aid workers evacuated, local resistance committees have stepped into the vacuum, organising essential aid and safe passage for civilians to escape. 

REUTERS

Civilians have become trapped in urban neighbourhoods with truces failing to hold

Many Sudanese feel that the international community abandoned them in their moment of need, and ask that such local, civilian efforts become the lynchpin of an aid effort.

There is a danger that hunger will become a weapon of war, and aid will be a resource manipulated by warlords.

Aid agencies will need to find ways to bypass them and directly help civilians.

There are no simple solutions to Sudan's escalating war. The situation may yet get much worse before it gets better.

And it is likely that whatever decisions are taken in the ceasefire talks - who is represented, on what terms, and with what agenda - will shape the country's future for years to come.

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US.

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View original: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65495539

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