NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: The map here below shows the Abyei Box, a disputed region sitting along the border of Sudan and South Sudan.
Prof Jan Pospisil has researched the political and security situation in Sudan and South Sudan for more than two decades. Here below is a copy of his latest analysis on the long expected crisis in Abyei. The analysis is followed by ten reports from the archives of Sudan Watch during years 2009 - 2024.
Should anyone reading this feel a headache coming on, they could scroll down to the end to see two cartoons to get a glimpse into part of the story.
As this post has taken me five hours to produce, I imagine the analysis took weeks to compile. If anyone reads this post plus the reports from 15 years ago, they will have some good insight into Abyei when news starts emerging of fighting in and around Abyei along the border of Sudan and South Sudan.
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Analysis from The Conversation UK
Associate Professor, Research, Coventry University, UK
Dated Tuesday, 05 March 2024, 12.12pm GMT - here is a copy in full:
Crisis in Abyei: South Sudan must act and stop violence between Dinka groups
Demonstrations in Khartoum over the contested Abyei region. Ashraf Shazly/AFP via Getty Images
Abyei – a territory roughly the size of Jamaica – is being contested by two countries, Sudan and South Sudan. Abyei, which covers just over 10,000km², is under special administrative status following the terms of a 2005 peace agreement between the two countries.
The disagreement has led to increasingly violent inter-communal tensions. Although the roots of these stretch back decades, they present a complex challenge, particularly in a context where the state lacks the capacity to enforce the rule of law impartially. But, in my view, the South Sudanese national government has the tools to help alleviate these tensions in the near term.
I have researched the political and security situation in Sudan and South Sudan for more than two decades and, as representatives from all sides confirm, the heart of the current conflict lies in overlapping territorial claims.
Important region
Abyei is both geographically and culturally significant.
It’s strategically positioned in a resource-rich and fertile area between Sudan and South Sudan that is also important for its transport links. Abyei is a bustling regional trading hub. Although there is only one producing oilfield in Abyei and production is declining, the region is thought to have vast untapped resources.
Abyei is deeply embedded in the history of the Ngok Dinka community, who are among the northernmost Dinka populations. The Dinka represent the predominant ethnolinguistic group in South Sudan, a country that emerged as the world’s newest nation in 2011.
Abyei’s ownership is also contested by the Arabic Misseriya from the north, indigenous to the current Sudanese territory.
These contestations have resulted in the region being plagued by recurrent conflicts, marking a history of turmoil in Abyei dating back more than a century.
Efforts at resolution
In an effort to resolve the dispute over Abyei’s sovereignty, negotiations held between the Sudanese government and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement that began in 2002 proposed a referendum to decide if Abyei should become part of Sudan or South Sudan. Such a referendum would have been held in parallel with the South Sudanese independence referendum in 2011.
The referendum on Abyei, however, has yet to happen. This is largely due to disagreements over voter eligibility. The nomadic lifestyle of the Misseriya groups has also complicated matters.
To address recurrent tensions, the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei was established in 2011. It was tasked with maintaining peace in the contested region. Over a decade later, however, little has changed.
Since 2022, contestations over Abyei have been complicated by renewed clashes between the Ngok and another Dinka sub-group, the Twic Dinka, from the south.
Map of Abyei
The Ngok Dinka assert their rights to the whole territory of what is known as the “Abyei Box”. This is the current internationally recognised form of Abyei, which was established based on the findings of the Abyei Boundary Commission. The commission was formed from the North-South peace talks of the mid-2000s.
Conversely, the Twic Dinka argue that their ancestral lands extend further north to the River Kiir, suggesting a natural demarcation line between their territory and that of the Ngok Dinka. The Twic contend that the Ngok Dinka’s presence south of the river had been a result of displacement caused by historic hostilities with the Misseriya during Sudan’s civil war in the 1980s and 1990s.
The drivers of conflict
Following the conclusion of the South Sudanese civil war in 2018 and the formation of a power-sharing government, tensions escalated in the Abyei region. This was partly due to grievances from Twic politicians who felt overlooked for significant roles in the national government and also in the state government of Warrap, where Twic county falls. Income from the bustling Aneek market in south Abyei was seen as a potential remedy for these grievances.
However, when the Abyei administration began land demarcation efforts in February 2022, conflict erupted. This resulted in several deaths and the destruction of Aneek market.
Since then, the area has remained tense, with outbreaks of violence involving organised assaults or clashes between armed youth factions.
This situation has been further exacerbated by the involvement of Bul Nuer militias.
One faction of militias was displaced from their native Mayom county in Unity State, in South Sudan’s north, by intense flooding. They eventually settled in Twic county, in Warrap state, in areas close to the Abyei border.
Concurrently, political disputes between other factions of Bul Nuer militias with the local government of Mayom county escalated to violent clashes. This forced the militias to flee Unity State. They, too, settled in Twic county.
This complicated an already tense situation.
To address the escalating violence in Twic county and Abyei, South Sudan President Salva Kiir ordered the expulsion of Bul Nuer militia members from Warrap state, and their resettlement in other states outside Warrap and Abyei. However, the implementation of this decree has faced significant challenges.
Since settling in Twic county in 2022, many Bul Nuer families have formed marital alliances with Twic families, integrating them into the community. This integration led to widespread protests from the Twic against Kiir’s decree. As a result, the Bul Nuer militias have remained in the area.
The presence of these militias has fuelled distrust among the Ngok community.
This tension boiled over in early February 2024 when minor altercations involving Ngok, Twic and Bul Nuer youths escalated into a larger conflict, resulting in the loss of more than 50 lives.
Addressing these deep-seated inter-communal tensions, with roots stretching back decades, presents a complex challenge particularly in a context where the state lacks capacity to enforce laws impartially.
What next?
Despite these difficulties, the South Sudandese national government has the tools to help alleviate these tensions in the near term.
One significant area of ambiguity that has contributed to ongoing disputes is the undefined border status between Twic and Abyei.
The government’s strategy has been to avoid making definitive statements regarding this border. This is in an effort to prevent alienating any community and to curb conflict escalation.
However, considering the intensification of tensions over the past two years, it may be prudent to reconsider this approach and seek a more definitive resolution to the border issue. Clarifying the border between Twic county and Abyei could significantly undermine the influence of political myths and propaganda used to raise ethnic distrust.
Initiating political dialogue that involves both Ngok and Twic leaders, as well as engaging with the youth who have been both instigators and casualties of the conflict, could facilitate this process of demystification.
While achieving a long-term resolution to the conflict around Abyei amid socio-economic challenges remains an elusive goal, adopting pragmatic approaches to manage the current conflict is essential for maintaining peace in the region. Such efforts would help lay the groundwork for long-term stability.
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Disclosure statement
Jan Pospisil receives funding from the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform, a programme funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. He is Associate Professor at Coventry University's Centre for Trust, Peace and Social Relations.
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View original: https://theconversation.com/crisis-in-abyei-south-sudan-must-act-and-stop-violence-between-dinka-groups-224409
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Further Reading
Sudan Watch - July 21, 2009
ABYEI, SUDAN: Messiriya leader says Messiriya and Dinka Ngok will not be proxies in Abyei conflict
The area's status and boundaries were among the most sensitive issues left undecided in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended more than two decades of civil war between the Khartoum government and southern rebels.
Tomorrow's ruling will not actually decide whether Abyei goes to north or south Sudan. That decision will be made by the people of Abyei themselves, in a referendum promised in January 2011.
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2009/07/abyei-messiriya-leader-hamadain.html
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Sudan Watch - July 22, 2009
ABYEI, SUDAN LATEST: PCA ruled that the eastern and western borders of Abyei should be redrawn, reducing the size of the region (Update 7)
The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague has decided not to accept the boundaries as drawn up by the Abyei Boundary Commission and has ruled that the boundaries of Sudan's disputed oil-producing region of Abyei should be redrawn.
In reaction to the ruling today, Douglas Johnson, who was part of the international panel who drew up the 2005 border proposals, said the Hague agreement had respected ethnic boundaries as well as north and south rivalries.
"Each side can say they were right about something, and each side can come away feeling that they have been given something from this arrangement," he told the BBC World Service.
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2009/07/abyei-latest-pca-ruled-that-eastern-and.html
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Sudan Watch - July 25, 2009
Abyei: UNICEF advises against Abyei repatriation now
On a visit to Abyei July 9, South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit, promised that his government would embark on developmental plans using unity development funds.
Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar said: "We should start the process of repatriation of the Abyei area as soon as possible".
Yesterday, UNICEF country director, Arop Alor Arop, said IDPs should harvest their crops first and wait for the situation to calm down before returning to their villages.
The SRRC deputy director in Abyei, Akot Manchok, said that they started repatriation in December 2008. But they still have nearly 800 families in each of these villages. He explains the difficulties the IDPs face.
[Akot Manchok]: “The first thing is security and also the villages are not accessible because the roads are not good in the area which connects the villages and the town. In Abyei those things are there, but they lack many things. For example, in the hospital, the doctors are not available because the government here has no budget. The budget was not approved, so no doctors can be employed to serve the people in this area.”
Akot Manchok said that many children do not go to school because of a lack of teachers in the area.
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2009/07/abyei-unicef-advises-against-abyei.html
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Sudan Watch - November 27, 2023
Abyei citizens protest insecurity, demand SSPDF and SAF withdrawal
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/03/s-sudan-abyeins-demand-sspdf-saf.html
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Sudan Watch - January 02, 2024
Sudan & South Sudan: Six killed in disputed Abyei. MP calls for UNISFA to protect Abyei people in Abyei Box
STRADDLING an ill-defined border between Sudan and South Sudan, oil-rich Abyei has been claimed by both countries since Juba declared independence from Khartoum in 2011.
Six killed in disputed region bordering Sudan, South Sudan
Abyei Deputy Chief Administrator Noon Deng and his team came under attack along the road from Abyei to Aneet town when they were returning from an official visit to Rummamer county, where they were celebrating the New Year, government officials said.
"His driver and two bodyguards plus two people of national security were all killed," Tereza Chol, a South Sudanese lawmaker, told Reuters.
Tabitha Chol, an MP representing Abyei in the Council of States, alleged of a systematic scheme, targeting of constitutional post holders from Abyei by elements from the neighbouring Twic County. She said a former minister from Abyei was also killed in a similar ambush in November last year.
“We are saying that the issue of Abyei and Twic is taking a different turn, it is like there are invisible hands behind the issue of land. We call on the South Sudan Government to swiftly form an investigation committee to probe the killing of the deputy administrator and the former minister,” Tabitha said. She further called on the United Nations Interim Force for Abyei (UNISFA) to protect the people of Abyei within the Abyei Box.
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/01/sudan-south-sudan-six-killed-in.html
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Sudan Watch - February 04, 2024
Sudan & South Sudan: Peacekeepers and civilians killed, burning of houses & Abithouk Market in Abyei
On Sunday, peacekeepers were transporting affected civilians from a UNISFA base to a hospital when they came under heavy fire. A peacekeeper from Pakistan was killed, and four uniformed personnel and a local civilian were injured. The incident happened one day after the Mission repelled an attack on the UNISFA base in Agok during which a Ghanaian peacekeeper was killed, prompting it to call for “a swift and thorough investigation”.
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/sudan-south-sudan-peacekeepers-and.html
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Sudan Watch - February 05, 2024
What's behind the renewed violence in the disputed Abyei region along South Sudan's border with Sudan?
For those who would like to understand the #Abyei issue well, please watch Aljazeera's Inside Story. Note: Abyei is the territory of the Nine Ngok Dinka Chiefdoms.
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/whats-behind-renewed-violence-in.html
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Sudan Watch - February 06, 2024
South Sudan: Origins of the Ngok-Twic conflict
The Ngok and Twic Dinka are historically very close. Friction only emerged in 2017, when the Abyei Area Administration (AAA) began a land registry in Annet, a bustling market near Agok, in southern Abyei. The Twic Dinka denounced the land registry, which was subsequently halted. The putative reason for this discontent was that some Twic Dinka claimed that Agok and Annet are located within Twic county, Warrap state. The Ngok Dinka, however, consider the boundaries of Abyei to have been determined by a decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2009, and Agok and Annet to be part of their territory. The Twic’s claim to these territories is very recent in origin and is not actually about long-standing territorial disagreements, but rather an attempt to control Annet and the humanitarian hub in Agok, where many international NGOs based themselves following SAF’s invasion of Abyei.
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/south-sudan-origins-of-ngok-twic.html
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Sudan Watch - February 09, 2024
South Sudan: Thousands displaced by fighting in Abyei, 100 people killed including UN peacekeepers
Cartoon credit: Cartoonist Adija @AdijaAcuil Jun 5, 2023
Cartoon caption “No comment. #SSOT”.
Cartoon credit: Cartoonist Adija @AdijaAcuil Nov 23, 2023
Cartoon caption: "Abyei and the Stakeholders
#SSOX #UN #UNSC #AU #IGAD #UNISFA"
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/south-sudan-thousands-displaced-by.html
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Sudan Watch - February 16, 2024
Sudan: Malik Agar explains his 3-day visit to S. Sudan
I explained to him the reasons for freezing our membership in IGAD, and he understood this position well. We also discussed the situation and the political movement that had occurred recently. The talk about the Jeddah platform was at the end of the agenda of our meeting, and I assured the president that returning to the Jeddah platform is linked to the rebel forces implementing what was agreed upon. From ending the occupation of citizens’ homes, among others. At the conclusion of the meeting, we renewed our commitment to resolving the problems of African countries within the African House.
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/sudan-malik-agar-explains-his-3-day.html
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