ICC's Bashir warrant could result in the disintegration of Sudan and harm Egypt

From GulfNews - Dubai, United Arab Emirates - March 7, 2009 -
Al Bashir warrant may affect Egypt's security

In the wake of the ICC decision, Egypt called on the UN Security Council to suspend the warrant against Al Bashir to allow more time for a political solution.

"This decision is harmful to Egypt's national security as it will most likely trigger chaos in Egypt's southern neighbour (Sudan)," said Hani Raslan, who heads the Sudan Studies Unit at the State-run Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. "This chaos could result in the disintegration of Sudan and consequently affect Egypt's access to the vital waters of the River Nile, which runs through Sudan," he told Gulf News.

Al Bashir is the first sitting head of state ordered arrested by the court since it started work in 2002 to bring people suspected of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity to justice. Al Bashir, accused of committing such crimes in Darfur, has reacted defiantly, saying he will attend a pan-Arab summit conference in Qatar this month.

"The referral of the case to the UN Security Council will further escalate the situation, leading to the emergence of political powers in Sudan, who will tamper with the Nile waters to put political and economic pressure on Egypt to the benefit of certain countries," said Raslan, the Egyptian expert.

He was apparently referring to Israel, with whom some opposition forces in southern Sudan maintain links. He also warned that the repercussions may hamper Egypt's efforts to promote cooperation projects with the Nile Basin countries, including Sudan. In the wake of the ICC decision, Egypt called on the UN Security Council to suspend the warrant against Al Bashir to allow more time for a political solution.

"The arrest warrant is a negative development, which does not serve security and stability in Sudan," Hossam Zaki, the spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, said on Thursday. He added that the case against Al Bashir was highly politicised. "This cast a shadow over this issue."

Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the biggest opposition force against the Egyptian government, lashed out at the arrest warrant against Al Bashir, saying it "exceeds the limits of the law". "This decision is aimed at breaking up Sudan, an eventuality that will greatly harm Egypt," Esaam Al Erian, a prominent official in the banned group, told this newspaper. "The detention of Al Bashir primarily targets Egypt and its interests." The Brotherhood urged the Arab countries to boycott the ICC, describing it as a tool of Western colonialism.

According to Mahmoud Khalaf, a military expert, Al Bashir's instance to attend the Arab summit conference in Qatar would land the Arab countries, particularly the hosting country, in an "embarrassing" situation.

"The current Egyptian efforts to suspend Al Bashir's arrest reflect Cairo's awareness of the potential dangers to be triggered by Al Bashir's downfall, including sparking chaos along Egypt's southern border."

To put justice before peace spells disaster for Sudan (Julie Flint & Alex de Waal)

"There will be no justice in Sudan without peace. When peace and justice clash, as they do in Sudan today, peace must prevail."

Those noteworthy lines are from the following commentary authored by Sudan experts Julie Flint and Alex de Waal. Click into the original article at The Guardian's website to view the comments posted (38 so far) mostly from people who I think sadly, going by the five years of archives here at Sudan Watch, do not know what they are talking about. Here below is a copy of 11 of the comments worth reading.

It's at times like this that I wish I had the energy and writing skills to support the arguments of Julie Flint and Alex de Waal whilst also challenging the blatant political activism of Eric Reeves and Nicholas Kristof who have great command of the English language. The pen is mightier than the sword. Unfortunately, the best I can do is devote what time and energy I do have to sharing news and information in this blog in the vain hope that it may encourage some people who are interested in learning about Sudan to read up on the crisis from well informed sources such as Julie Flint and Alex de Waal and not the savedarfurcrowd who I believe have agendas of their own that are driven by self interest.

To put justice before peace spells disaster for Sudan
By Julie Flint and Alex de Waal
The Guardian
Friday 6 March 2009

After seven months' deliberation, the judges of the international criminal court finally issued an arrest warrant for Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese president, this week. Their appeal for retributive justice, in the form of charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Darfur, was solemnly echoed in European and US capitals, and universally by rights organisations and activist groups. Within hours, however, theSudan government showed that the court and its backers were powerless to defend or feed the millions of Darfurians in whose name justice is being sought. It summarily expelled the biggest international aid agencies, seized their assets, and closed down Sudanese human rights organisations at gunpoint.

As fuel to run the water pumps in Darfur's massive displaced camps runs low and the worst meningitis epidemic in a decade spreads with lethal speed, the Sudan government will be responsible for the deaths and suffering that will result - not only in Darfur, but in other parts of Sudan where relief work is now curtailed, including the drought-stricken eastern region.

But it was the ICC prosecutor who set the match to the dry tinder that is Sudan. It is quite extraordinary that Luis Moreno-Ocampo and a host of diplomats and activists were capable of condemning the government for the most hideous crimes with one breath and asserting with the next that it would tamely change its spots when threatened with standing trial in The Hague.

In truth, no one knew what the arrest warrant would mean. Rights groups who had supported an independent, permanent court kept their concerns private. Activist commentators and lawyers, often with little knowledge of Sudan, cleaved to the mantra that there is no peace without justice. Warrants against Slobodan Milosevic and Charles Taylor (the former presidents of Yugoslavia and Liberia) had contributed to their speedy overthrow, Geoffrey Robertson argued, and would do the same to Bashir. But Milosevic and Taylor were weak, and the west wanted them gone. Bashir has fought off all challenges for 20 years, and the west has been supporting a fragile and hard-fought peace agreement that kept him in power as the quid pro quo of a transition to democracy.

All this now hangs by a thread. The risks were real, and they were inflated by the way in which Moreno-Ocampo insisted on pursuing Bashir for "ongoing genocide" with, he claimed fantastically, 5,000 people dying a month.

One of our reasons for opposing an arrest warrant when the application was made last year was that the case for genocide was based on flimsy evidence and weak argument. He repeatedly said, with no evidence whatsoever, that the government was orchestrating "systematic" attacks on the camps to "eliminate African tribes" there. In an encouraging indication that the ICC judges took their job seriously, and had a better command of the facts, they rejected his three charges of genocide, finding that he had failed to demonstrate that Bashir had a case to answer there. This was a stunning rebuff to Moreno-Ocampo, who has insisted in public more than once that Bashir is guilty of genocide and must be removed from office.

Worse, the prosecutor hinted - again repeatedly - that he got his information from humanitarian agencies. The damage done by this is incalculable. Sudanese security believes international agencies have been passing information to the ICC. So far, 11 agencies have been ordered out. Their humanitarian infrastructure has been dismantled and their assets seized. The UN agencies are still there. For the moment. But the World Food Programme relies on two now absent NGOs - Care and Save the Children - to distribute 80% of its rations. Will Khartoum allow the WFP to build a new food distribution infrastructure - a task of many months? Or will it simply insist on doing the job itself? Most likely the latter. Meanwhile, in addition to epidemics and a hunger season, Darfur faces the likelihood of violence as rebels and government militias respond to the new uncertainties by tearing up the local peace agreements that have kept much of Darfur stable for three years.

Last year, according to UN figures, about 150 Darfurians died every month in violence. Fewer than half were civilians; the others were soldiers, militiamen, bandits and rebels. Things could get worse, much worse. There is good reason to believe the aid agency expulsions are only the beginning. Those who have argued that the Sudan government responds to pressure make a critical mistake. Pressure works if the party under pressure can agree with the end point. If that is life imprisonment, pressure only generates counter-pressure. For Khartoum, Moreno-Ocampo's ultimatum is not negotiable. It is a fight to the death.

International justice is a virtuous enterprise, but not risk-free. Sudanese people are already paying a high price for the abandonment of the diplomatic approach that has yielded such benefits over the last four years. We fear there is more to come: NGO expulsions, actions against UN staff members and, worst of all, a go-slow or reversal of commitment to elections and self-determination for Southern Sudan. There will be no justice in Sudan without peace. When peace and justice clash, as they do in Sudan today, peace must prevail.

Julie Flint and Alex de Waal are the co-authors of Darfur: A New History of a Long War.
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Copy of 11 (out of 38) Comments


It's hard to believe many of you have read this article. While you may not agree with the authors' conclusion--perhaps, for you, justice is all important--do you really think it's "disgusting," "cynical," and "revolting"? To make those charges, you'd have to believe that the authors were motivated by something selfish or base. So give us the evidence: the evidence that these authors don't mean what they say and are not primarily motivated by a desire to help the people of Darfur. Otherwise, have the decency to remain silent.
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Interesting - no one has a good word to say for the Basheer regime . The regime must have supporters out there, and as the media say there are always two sides to every story. It must have its own PR folk, spin doctors, etc those who write media releases and take journalists on tours.

No one willing to get on CiF, and post how much good Basheer has done around Khartoum? how he tried to help the Fur, but they wont have it ? How his regime's development of oil has done so much for his countrymen? How many hospitals he has built in the country? How much average life expectancy has gone up? We're not asking them to justify themselves to the west - just asking - where is the other side to this story?
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Interesting article, thanks. I don't know the ins and outs of the Sudan conflict and rely almost solely on media drivel (as do most self-professed 'experts' on this thread). I found this article more nuanced and convincing than most articles I've read on Sudan. I particularly liked the denouement at the end:

International justice is a virtuous enterprise, but not risk-free.

Agreed; especially when it's designed as mere symbolism. In this case it's also been very counter-productive.
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While the immediate humanitarian consequences of the indictment are admittedly dire, it shouldn't be seen as merely a symbolic act. Practitioners currently working in international criminal courts would argue that, whilst the ICC may be a fledgling institution operating against overwhelming odds (rather than a powerful body bent on colonialization as some would suggest), it is vital that the international community sends the message that if world leaders use genocide as an instrument of power they will be held to account.
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Some very good points in the article.

Seems like a stunt by Western powers. If Bashir is a war criminal then so are Bush, Blair, Howard, and Harper to name a few.

Would they ever have warrants issues against them?

We all know the answer to this question.
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if world leaders use genocide as an instrument of power they will be held to account.

What does that have to do with Sudan? You don't have a clue, do you? The ICC judges threw out Moreno-Ocampo's genocide allegations.
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This is a great article
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Lovely, naive comment, Geoffrey. He probably isn't innocent, by any stretch of the imagination, but that is beside the point. The problem is that the indictment by the (very questionable and selective) ICC will do little to actually bring justice to Sudan. In fact it has exacerbated the situation. It's merely symbolic tokenism in order to make a few liberal believers feel good about themselves. It has only been detrimental to the people of Sudan and Darfur (which is what this ought to be about, right?).
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But its conveninet for the sloppy journalistic cliches to say it is an ethnic conflict because we love to divide people. In reality african is fighting african for precious resources in the desert, as many human peoples have done and will carry on doing for a long time.

But I disagree with the author Bashir should be tried indeed, Sudan and its people need to regain their soul and exorcise a few demons.
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This debate is infuriating. de Waal and Flint are experts on Sudan who have a understanding of the real issues facing that country. Insulting their very considered and, in my opinion, accurate article as trash and propaganda is disrespectful in the extreme.

I worked at the war crimes tribunal for Rwanda for almost a year and witnessed the absolute failure of that institution to bring anything like peace and reconciliation to Rwanda. Unfortunately, as olching correctly notes, international criminal justice in its current form is mere tokenism; an exculpatory measure from a West keen to assuage the guilt of failing to solve (and often creating) the problems in the developing world.

Why don't we focus all this energy and, I think, genuine good-will, on solving the real issues driving this conflict? Perhaps then one day we may actually make progress towards peace: http://africalive.cafebabel.com/en
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if world leaders use genocide as an instrument of power they will be held to account.

The charges of genocide were thrown out. Every impartial investigation has concluded there wasn't genocide in Darfur.
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Further reading

Sudan Watch - March 06, 2009: "To those who say there is no peace without justice, I reply, as a Brit, with two words: Northern Ireland." - Julie Flint

French ambassador to UN says Kalma camp in Darfur Sudan could run out of water within 48 hours

Abdalmahmood Abdalhaleem, the Sudanese ambassador to the United Nations said Sudan had compiled a dossier thick with evidence that the aid agencies being shuttered had abetted the International Criminal Courts work.

He did not make this evidence public or link specific evidence to particular organizations, but said as an example that aid groups had used their private aircraft to fly potential witnesses against the president to Europe from Darfur.

Source: New York Times
U.N. Panel Deadlocks Over Taking Any Action on Sudan
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR and SHARON OTTERMAN
Published: March 6, 2009. Excerpts:

UNITED NATIONS — The Security Council deadlocked on Friday over taking any action on the tempest that erupted over the indictment of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan on war crimes charges and his subsequent expulsion of 13 aid organizations.

Mr. Bashir’s supporters, led by Libya and China, insisted that any official statement issued by the Council simultaneously address the potential humanitarian crisis and a possible deferral of the charges.

Aid organizations reached Friday said they had already suspended most deliveries to Darfur.

Expatriate staff members had their work permits revoked and were leaving, the organizations said.

In Darfur’s camps, the effects were already being felt. The International Rescue Committee, for example, said it closed medical clinics in three camps, leaving more than 200,000 without medical assistance. Michael Kocher, the organization’s vice president of international programs, said the agency was appealing the government’s decision, as were the other groups.

“Our biggest worry is about the humanitarian situation — some 50 to 70 percent of the humanitarian assistance has stopped,” said Philippe Conraud, of Action Against Hunger.

At the United Nations on Friday, the Libyan ambassador, Ibrahim O. Dabbashi, said that if the Council were “honest” about the humanitarian situation, it should defer the charges against Mr. Bashir “as soon as possible in order to calm the situation.”

China, Vietnam and Uganda, representing the African Union, supported that position, according to Western diplomats who attended the closed meeting.

“The United States is gravely concerned by the reckless decision of the Sudanese government to expel international aid groups working to ease the suffering of Sudan’s citizens,” said Susan E. Rice, the American ambassador to the United Nations.

“The humanitarian situation in the country is already dire, and this callous step threatens the lives of innocents already suffering from years of war and upheaval,” she said.

Abdalmahmood Abdalhaleem, the Sudanese ambassador to the United Nations, dismissed the Western criticism as a “storm in a teacup” and said Sudan had compiled a dossier thick with evidence that the aid agencies being shuttered had abetted the court’s work.

He did not make this evidence public or link specific evidence to particular organizations, but said as an example that aid groups had used their private aircraft to fly potential witnesses against the president to Europe from Darfur.

“They are spoiling, they are sabotaging, they are doing a lot of very bad activities incompatible with their humanitarian mandate,” Mr. Abdalhaleem said. He said the Sudanese government, local groups and those organizations allowed to stay would be able to fill the gap created by the expulsions.

Several Western ambassadors and the aid agencies rejected the accusations against them, while diplomats and officials also disputed the idea that Sudan would be able to fill the gap, noting that the agencies being shut down delivered some 40 percent of the aid in Darfur.

Jean-Maurice Ripert, the French ambassador to the United Nations, said that the Sudanese move was a violation of its obligations under international humanitarian law.

The United Nations said the hardest hit would be the hundreds of thousands of displaced people living in camps served by the aid groups.

Mr. Ripert suggested that Kalma camp, for example, which is home to nearly 100,000 displaced people, could run out of water within 48 hours.

In Khartoum, meanwhile, representatives of Iran and Syria, as well the militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, arrived to express solidarity with Mr. Bashir and to denounce the court’s decision. The delegation included high-ranking officials, like the speakers of the Iranian and Syrian Parliaments.

A journalist contributed reporting from Khartoum, Sudan.

UN's Ban in Washington 10-11 March to meet Obama and Clintons to discuss Sudan

From UN News Centre 6 March 2009 –
Ban and Obama to meet next week in Washington

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and United States President Barack Obama will meet next week in Washington to discuss a host of issues, including the global economic crisis, Sudan, Afghanistan and the Middle East, it was announced today.

The two leaders are also expected to confer on climate change, non-proliferation, human rights, United Nations reform and US-UN relations, according to a statement issued by Mr. Ban’s spokesperson.

While visiting the US capital from 10 to 11 March, the Secretary-General will also hold talks with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as well as with members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Mr. Ban will arrive in Washington from Haiti, which he and former US President Bill Clinton will visit on Monday to raise awareness of efforts to help the Caribbean nation’s people and government bolster their economic security.

Obama invites U.N.'s Ban to White House next week
Reuters March 6, 2009 via IHT - excerpt:

UNITED NATIONS: U.S. President Barack Obama has invited U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to the White House next week, the first meeting between the two since Obama took office, Washington's U.N. envoy said on Friday.

Subjects the two would discuss on Tuesday include Sudan, which has expelled 13 aid agencies after President Omar Hassan al-Bashir was charged with war crimes in Darfur by the International Criminal Court, Ambassador Susan Rice said.

Note, the 13 NGO's given notice to leave Sudan appear to be: Oxfam GB, Care, MSF-Holland, Mercy Corps, Save the Children UK, Norwegian Refugee Council, International Rescue Committee, Action Contre La Faim, Solidarities, CHF International, Save the Children USA, PADCO, MSF-France.

UN to meet over Sudan aid crisis - Libya holds UN Security Council presidency this month

UN Security Council is to meet over Sudan aid crisis. A Libyan diplomat told Reuters that his country's delegation, which holds the UN Security Council's presidency this month, would raise requests from the Arab League and African Union to meet council members to discuss suspending the ICC's proceedings against Sudanese President al-Bashir.

Source: Aljazeera 6 March 2009 - UN to meet over Sudan aid crisis - excerpts:

The United Nations Security Council is to meet to discuss Sudan's decision to expel several aid groups from the country following the indictment of its president for war crimes, diplomats say.

The council will also reportedly receive a briefing from a UN humanitarian official on the troubled region of Darfur, where about 4.7 million people depend on aid, the diplomats said. [...]

A Libyan diplomat told Reuters that his country's delegation, which holds the council's presidency this month, would raise requests from the Arab League and African Union to meet council members to discuss suspending the ICC's proceedings against al-Bashir. [...]

Meanwhile the UN's main human rights office also said on Friday it would examine whether Sudan's decision to expel the groups marked a breach of basic human rights and possibly a war crime, a spokesman said.

"To knowingly and deliberately deprive such a huge group of civilians of means to survive is a deplorable act,'' said Rupert Colville, spokesman for Navi Pillay, the UN human rights chief.

"To punish civilians because of a decision by the ICC is a grievous dereliction of the government's duty to protect its own people." [...]

Note, on 2 February 2009 Libyan leader Col Gaddafi became chairman of the African Union for a year, replacing the Tanzanian President, Jakaya Kikwete. "I shall continue to insist that our sovereign countries work to achieve the United States of Africa," he said in his inaugural speech.

AU appoints Mbeki to intercede between ICC and Sudan

From BBC Friday 06 March 2009 - Mbeki named to heal Bashir rift - excerpt:

The African Union has appointed former South African President Thabo Mbeki to chair a committee to investigate human rights violations in Darfur.

South Africa's Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said Mr Mbeki's role was to intercede between the International Criminal Court and Sudan.

The African Union has asked the ICC to delay the charges for a year, warning that attempts to arrest Mr Bashir could further destabilise the situation in Darfur.

A spokesman for Mr Mbeki confirmed that he had accepted the appointment.

Sudan's deputy permanent representative to the AU, Akuei Bona Malwal, told the BBC that the agencies had been "deemed to have worked beyond the permit that was given to them".

He said it was a "coincidence" that the agencies had been expelled on the same day as the ICC issued the warrant.

(Hat tip: ICC Observers blog post AU appoints Mbeki to negotiate with UN, struggles to address Bashir Warrant)

"To those who say there is no peace without justice, I reply, as a Brit, with two words: Northern Ireland." - Julie Flint

Julie Flint, one of my favourite journalists, is back reporting on Darfur.  It's made my day to see her latest commentary published today at Alex de Waal's blog Making Sense of Darfur.  Now the piece has got me wondering:  why did the ICC's arrest warrant have to be now? What was the hurry?  Where did the ICC get the figure of 5,000 deaths per month? More on this later, if and when I can come up with an answer.  Hey ICC:  if you are reading this, can you please let us know your answer by leaking it to Sudan Tribune or NYT, thanks.  

From Alex de Waal's blog Making Sense of Darfur
Justice and Hunger
By Julie Flint
Friday, March 6th, 2009

The expulsions of humanitarians are a catastrophe for the victims of the Darfur war, a fact upon which Luis Moreno Ocampo might well reflect given the requirement of the Rome Statute that prosecutions be in the interests of victims. If he wanted to indict President Bashir–a reversal, by the way, of his initial thinking–why did it have to be now? What was the hurry? UNAMID is not yet at full strength and its protection capacity is modest. The biggest NGOs in Darfur, whose mere presence has at times served the war-displaced well, are now gone–and with them the witness they were able to bear as well as the food and medicines and water they provided. What can be more unjust than further, unnecessary suffering for Darfurians? The Sudan government is constantly looking for pretexts to cripple humanitarian work, seeing all around it a conspiracy to aid and abet the ICC, and Moreno Ocampo’s retributive justice has played right into its hands. He calls Bashir a genocidal dictator (language that does not encourage cooperation or moderation in Khartoum). Did he really think he would submit tamely when threatened with life imprisonment in The Hague?

With at least 13 organisations expelled, 60% of all humanitarian assistance in Darfur will disappear in a matter of days. All international actors are gone from Kalma camp, with its population of 90,000, many of whom have been displaced multiple times. If the government makes another attempt to break the camp up, who will protect the IDPs from militias as they go, wherever they go?

Worse, with their assets seized and their infrastructure dismantled, the humanitarian organisations have no capacity to restart their work or even to hand it over.

All this in the name of what Prof. Antonio Cassese, who led the UN Commission of Inquiry into Darfur, calls ‘impossible justice’. Writing in La Repubblica newspaper on 5 March, Cassese said: ‘[The ICC’s] warrant can be carried out only if Bashir himself orders his guards to arrest him. Outside Sudan, the warrant has virtually no legal weight.’ Cassese argues that since Sudan has not signed the statue of the Court, Bashir can claim immunity. A controversial argument, no doubt, even among lawyers, but one that would add to the furor that would result in many parts of the world if Bashir was apprehended by force.

Cassese cannot be accused of being soft on the Sudan government. The UN Commission of Inquiry he led named 51 people it believes are responsible for crimes committed in Darfur. The list reportedly includes senior government figures whom Moreno Ocampo was initially reluctant to investigate. Cassese kept the 51 names secret, believing this was the best way eventually to detain anyone. Why Moreno Ocampo decided to name his suspects - and then to give away his game plan by announcing he might take them off planes - is best known to him. His decision to use public applications rather than sealed warrants was widely opposed with the Court itself. But listening to and calmly weighing criticism is not one of the Prosecutor’s strongest points.

It is noticeable that 11 of the 13 NGOs expelled come from P3 countries—the U.S., Britain and France. The Sudan government claims that all 13 NGOs all passed information to the ICC—and quite possibly believes it—but the expulsions are clearly a warning, too, to the three governments and their nationals serving in the UN. How they act and speak in the coming days will help determine Khartoum’s next step. It reportedly has a ‘B list’ of organisations it wants out.

Justice must be one of the components of a lasting peace in Darfur/Sudan. But the ICC is a blunt sword—there are other, less risky forms of justice, including reparations, truth and reconciliation processes etc.,—and the timing of the move against Bashir could hardly be worse. Asked in July why he felt the need to go after the president now, with the CPA so fragile and national elections promised, Moreno Ocampo replied that there was no time to lose, because of ‘ongoing genocide’—even while admitting it might take twenty years before he comes to court.

The ICC judges have now rejected the argument even for genocide, ongoing or not, by a majority of two to one. We don’t know if they accepted Moreno Ocampo’s repeated public assertions that 5,000 people are dying a month. If his were true, there might be a case for dramatic and urgent action. But is it true? Can the prosecutor break down these figures, with precise and rigorous sourcing? UN statistics show 150 deaths, through violence, on average last year. The Genocide Intervention Network has a similar figure. That’s a total of between 1600 and 1900—down from 4,470 in 2006 and 2,000 in 2007. The remaining 4,850 The Prosecutor claims in 2008 must therefore be indirect deaths, from disease and hunger etc. Let us see the evidence.

It is true that there is a meningitis epidemic in Darfur at the moment, the worst since 1998. But the epidemic is not war-related and there are no other medical emergencies, according to one of the medical NGOs that have been expelled. The nutritional situation in the displaced camps is said to be ‘pretty good’. A breakdown of patients attending MSF France’s medical clinic in Nyertiti last year shows that 30% of them were from outside Nyertiti. The year before it was only 5-7%. People were moving again. Security was improving. (The requisite proviso, for those who would take this as a denial of the awfulness of Darfur and the wickedness of the government: it’s still not good, and sometimes it’s very bad, and yes, the government is sometimes, but not always, responsible.)

The immediate future for Darfurians is a sharp decline in the remarkable humanitarian work that has reduced mortality rates to near-normal levels in the aftermath of the massacre years of 2003-04. Where’s the justice in that? I’ve spent three years of my life working in war zones. To those who say there is no peace without justice, I reply, as a Brit, with two words: Northern Ireland. Human life is more precious than mantras.

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Noteworthy Quote

"To those who say there is no peace without justice, I reply, as a Brit, with two words: Northern Ireland." - Julie Flint

NYC event March 11: Institute for Inclusive Security, Africa International Republican Institute, Sudanese National Assembly Women’s Caucus

Email received today from Sarah Wegner, Institute for Inclusive Security.

Subject: Event on Women and Sudanese Governance

Dear Ms. Jones:

I ran across your blog, Sudan Watch, and thought your readers might be interested in an event that my organization is putting together. The event offers a panel of experts discussing Women in Parlimentary Caucuses, primarily in Sudan:

WOMEN'S PARLIAMENTARY CAUCUSES: A TOOL FOR LEGISLATIVE ACTION
with

STEPHANIE BLANTON, Regional Program Director, Africa International Republican Institute

SAMIA SID AHMED HASSAN, Chair, Sudanese National Assembly Women’s Caucus

CARLA KOPPELL, Director, The Institute for Inclusive Security

Wednesday, March 11, 2009, 10:00am-11:30am
The Church Center, 777 United Nations Plaza, 11th Floor
1st Avenue and 44th Street, New York City

Description: Bringing together members of women’s caucuses in Sudan and elsewhere, this event will focus on the power of women’s parliamentary caucuses to advance legislative agendas. Drawing from experiences around the world, discussions will address forming a caucus, seeking and providing support, maintaining coalitions, and developing creative strategies for advocacy.

If you are in the New York area, I encourage you to attend. If not, perhaps your readers in New York would be interested if you could post the information on your blog.

Here is a link to more information: http://www.huntalternatives.org

Thank you for your time and consideration,

Sarah Wegner
Institute for Inclusive Security
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Reply from Sudan Watch

Dear Sarah, Thank you for your interesting email. If I lived in the New York area, I would attend. I am in England, UK but would like to follow up on the event. Please keep me posted. Good luck on Wednesday. Best wishes, Ingrid.

Question: What should Obama do about Darfur? Answer: Give a chance for peace in Sudan

Today, I left the following comment at Alex de Waal's blog post What Should Obama Do About Darfur?

March 6th, 2009 at 14:42 pm GMT
As stated in my earlier comment at your post Uncharted Waters, the African Union’s latest initiative to try halt ICC’s proceedings against Bashir will give a chance for peace in Sudan. The African Union was formed to provide African solutions to African problems and deserves to be respected and supported. UN Security Council members UK, France and the US must be persuaded to give a chance for peace in Sudan. The future of Sudan and the lives and livelihoods of millions of Sudanese and Chadian people are at stake. If any person reading this is a British, French or US citizen please find a way to make your voice heard and request that ICC proceedings against Sudan’s President Al-Bashir are halted for the time being. War begets war. Peace begets peace. Think of all the young children growing up right now in Sudan and Chad. Their futures depend on what happens over the coming weeks and months. Peace and love. God bless the children of Sudan.

Before I forget, in Alex's post is a link to an online debate involving Richard Just (the editor), Alan Wolfe, Eric Reeves, Elizabeth Rubin, and Alex de Waal, on the question of what the new U.S. Administration’s policy should be on Darfur. The debate will last several days. Note the input so far from Eric Reeves, as per usual, is full of criticism while offering no solutions except, I guess, Khartoum regime change. I've yet to read anything he has written that explains who he thinks ought to replace the current regime in Khartoum. I'm surprised that nobody challenges the dangerous rubbish he writes. I look forward to Alex's response.

Sudan Darfur aid workers staying in Khartoum for now as negotiations continue

Right now here in England it is 12:55 pm Friday 6 March 2009 and I have just seen these two tweets by Rob Crilly in Darfur, western Sudan.

Aid workers staying in khartoum for now as negotiations continue. No-one holding much hope.
Twitter / robcrilly 6/3/09 11:00

robcrilly: Mosques preaching love and tolerance, according to friend in khartoum
Twitter / robcrilly 6/3/09 11:38

Given that fact that 'aid workers are staying in Khartoum for now', the three words "as negotiations continue" sound to me like positive news.

Last night, I stayed up way past midnight to write and publish the following post for Sudan Watch: African Union's initiative to try halt ICC's proceedings against Bashir will give a chance for peace in Sudan.

It's a must-read. The African Union needs all the help it can get. UN Security Council members UK, France and the US must be persuaded to give a chance for peace in Sudan. The future of Sudan and the lives of millions of people are at stake. If any Sudan watcher reading this is a British, French or US citizen please find a way to make your voice heard and request that ICC proceedings against Sudan's President Al-Bashir are halted for at least twelve months. War begets war. Peace begets peace. Think of all the young children growing up in Sudan and Chad. Their futures depend on what happens this week.

Please Sudan. No more war. No more bloodshed. No more child soldiers. Don't give up on peace. Here is a two minute video featuring former child solder, Emmanuel Jal who fought in Sudan's bloody civil war that cost more than two million lives.



YouTube: Emmanuel Jal WARCHILD - official video - taken from the album WARCHILD (Courtesy of www.emmanueljalonline.net)

As a child soldier, he learned how to kill. Now, thanks to a British aid worker, Emmanuel Jal is an internationally acclaimed musician. This is his remarkable story

Emmanuel Jal: 'Music is my weapon of choice'
From the Telegraph UK Roya Nikkhah 28 Feb 2009

'War Child: A Boy Soldier's Story' by Emmanuel Jal is published by Little, Brown on March 5. To order your copy for £11.99 + £1.25 p&p, call Telegraph Books (0844 871 1515) or go to books.telegraph.co.uk For information on Gua Africa, go to www.gua-africa.org

Turkey has concerns over impact of Bashir warrant - FM

From Hürriyet - Turkey 06 March 2009
Turkey has concerns over impact of Bashir warrant - foreign minister
Turkey is worried about the impact that an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir could have on efforts to stabilize the conflict-torn country, Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said on Thursday. The Sudanese ambassador to Ankara said he believed that Turkey would continue to support his country.
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From Arab News - Jeddah, Saudi Arabia 06 March 2009
Sudanese expats outraged
Secretary-General of the Jeddah-based Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu said the ICC move could seriously undermine the ongoing efforts to resolve the conflict in Darfur.

ISESCO strongly rejected ICC indictment of Bashir - UN officials will continue to deal with Bashir when needed

From China View 06 March 2009, Editor: Xiong Tong
ISESCO says ICC indictment of al-Bashir "flawed," "unfair"

RABAT, March 5 (Xinhua) -- The Islamic Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (ISESCO) on Thursday said it strongly rejected the decision of the International Criminal Court's (ICC) arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir as "flawed and unfair."

The Rabat-based organization said on its website that the ICC decision will obstruct the international efforts made to reach a settlement to the Darfur crisis and establish lasting peace and security in Sudan.

The decision is a "sure sign of the double standards of the world's superpowers" and "runs counter to international law and the universally accepted principles of international justice," it said.

It will also have a "critical impact" on peace and security in the region, ISESCO added, underlining that Sudan is being targeted because it stands up in defense of its sovereignty and territorial integrity against an illegitimate rebellion, fed by foreign forces.

- - -

Special report rom China View 06 March 2009 by Chen Gongzheng, Shao Jie
KHARTOUM, March 5 (Xinhua)
ICC's obsession of justice tempered by tricky arrest
Story highlights:
·Bashir slamed ICC's arrest warrant; analysts say the leader's counteraction is justifiable.
·ICC's perceptible bias has drawn backlashes among African countries and Arab nations.
·A UN spokesman said UN officials will continue to deal with Bashir when needed.

African Union's initiative to try halt ICC's proceedings against Bashir will give a chance for peace in Sudan

In his latest analysis, copied here below, Alex de Waal seems very sad and downbeat. On reading the piece, I was surprised to learn that he cannot see a political way out of "this mess" and made no mention of the UN Security Council's power to suspend the arrest warrant against Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir.

Today, (Thursday, 05 March 2009) AFP reported that the African Union will send a delegation to the UN to try halt ICC's warrant against President Al-Bashir:

The move would "give a chance for peace in Sudan," said the chairman of the bloc's Peace and Security Council, Bruno Zidouemba, after an emergency meeting in Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa.

He said the council "decided to pursue ways with the international community, and especially the UN Security Council, to halt the proceedings to give a chance for peace in Sudan."

Also today, China's spokesman Qin was quoted by VOA as saying that he hopes the UN will listen to the appeals of the African Union, Arab League and the Non-Aligned Movement and will call on the ICC not to hear the case, for the time being.

As stated here at Sudan Watch earlier today, my guess and hope is that the African Union's initiative, especially with Col Gaddafi in the chair, will eventually succeed as UN Security Council members China, Russia, Libya, Uganda and Burkina Faso already support invoking Article 16 to suspend Mr Bashir's indictment.

Note, Radio Netherlands reported on Tuesday 03 March 2009 that Libya's African Affairs Minister Abdul Salam al-Tereyki (who is also the AU envoy for Sudan) told reporters in Khartoum that members of the AU would withdraw from the ICC if it issues an arrest warrant against President Al-Bashir.

Here is the copy of Alex's analysis, and some of the first comments posted, from his ssrc.org blog Making Sense of Darfur

Uncharted Waters
By Alex de Waal, Thursday, March 05, 2009

The die is cast. Sudan has entered uncharted waters as a result of the ICC arrest warrant against President Omar al Bashir. And indeed it is a nothing less than roll of the dice, a gamble with unknown consequences. Yesterday marks a turning point. We cannot say for sure in which direction Sudan will turn but there are many reasons to be fearful.

Conflict resolution is in part an exercise in reducing uncertainty, bringing former enemies together, and finding a solution that everyone can live with. For the last eight years, a great deal of effort by Sudanese and their international partners has gone into trying to accommodate diverse and distrustful people, all of whom have the capability to bring the country back into the abyss of war and destruction, within a common agenda of making Sudan function. Incentives, sanctions and pressure were all part of the package. But key to success was a shared vision, often blurry but nonetheless real, that solving the Sudanese problem was a common national challenge and that all without exception have a place in the new Sudan which arises from this effort.

The ICC is the reverse: a human rights absolutism that demands that some people be ruled out entirely. The ICC pretends to be outside politics, representing principles on which no compromise is possible. The key word is ‘pretense’, to paraphrase David Kennedy: it is a nice fiction for the human rights community to believe that it is ’speaking truth to power’ and not actually exercising power. The ICC arrest warrant is a real decision with real consequences in terms of lives saved and lost and the political life of a nation.

I for one cannot see a political way out of this mess. The International Crisis Group writes that ‘the NCP is likely to look for a way out of a situation, by changing its policies or leadership. To succeed, it will need to change both.’ This is groping in the dark. What is ICG actually advocating here? It seems to me that it is calling for a coup. An internal coup is possible though unlikely and not, to my mind, a solution.

As of yesterday, everything that any commentator or expert thinks he or she knew with confidence about Sudan becomes moot. Wishful thinking took the place of analysis. Nick Kristof wrote a few days ago that fears of aid agency expulsion were ‘overblown.’ He got it wrong. Many among the advocacy groups in Washington DC see this as an opportunity for leverage, a chance for peace. I fear not: the ICC is a terribly bad instrument of pressure, because (a) the pressure can never be removed and (b) pressure only works if the end point to which the pressure is applied can be accepted by the party being pressured. The ICC indictment meets neither of these criteria.

The examples of the arrest warrants against Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia and Charles Taylor of Liberia are routinely held up to demonstrate that good outcomes can prevail against skeptics such as myself. I don’t believe it. Milosevic was in the process of losing a war against NATO and Taylor was in the process of being eased out of power (with a promise of safe asylum). The one international policy towards Sudan that has really worked–the CPA–is focused on a negotiated transition. Milosevic and Taylor ran one-man dictatorships which crumbled when they were removed. Bashir is not a one-man dictatorship–on the contrary he has been overshadowed by his lieutenants for most of the last 20 years–so the idea that his replacement by one of his colleagues would represent a democratic transformation is not well-founded. The precedent of Joseph Kony of the Lord’s Resistance Army is more pertinent. The ICC arrest warrant against Kony initially galvanized the peace process but when Kony realized the warrant could never be lifted it became an obstacle to an agreement. Ugandans who initially celebrated the ICC have become disillusioned.

The international community is playing its second highest card by demanding an arrest warrant (the highest card would be invading the country). That card is a dud. The Sudan Government will ignore it and the leverage that the internationals possessed is shrinking fast. I suspect that we will look back on the last few years as a time when things worked as well as they ever did in contemporary Sudan–when the CPA was implemented as well as could be expected, when death rates in Darfur fell from levels of famine and war to just 150 per month, when there were numerous opportunities for international engagement in moving things forward, slowly and imperfectly, but none the less forward.

Perhaps it will revert to this after a hiatus. Perhaps, with a wave of a magic wand, all of peace, justice and democracy will be realized in an instant. Possibly, some unexpected benefit will arise. Most likely, not. Yesterday was a sad day for Sudan.

Responses to “Uncharted Waters”

From Pedro: March 5th, 2009
I share your comment fully, the international community has washed its hands of the future of Sudan. Whatever bad happens next we will all say ‘at least we did the right thing, they are the bad guys and that’s why it all went terribly wrong’. We are taking the back seat instead of help driving the last three years to a safe destination. And these three years have been the most successful and peaceful in the past 40. I am working with a UN agency in Darfur, so this warrant is highly worrying indeed.
Pedro

From James McKay: March 5th, 2009
This piece is spot on. The decision of the ICC is really the logically outcome of the process started with Judge Garzon's request for the arrest of Pinochet. However much you might laud such actions in particular cases (though you may question the motives behind those actions being taken), the precedent is a dangerous one. Judgements like the ICCs is only likely to solidify the government in Khartoum, much as the blocade by the US has clumbsily propped up the Cuban government for the last 40 years. The attempts by judges in Belgium and France to use international law against Presidents in Dijbouti, Rwanda, and Senegal can only reinforce the idea within the developing world that judicial systems are doing the beckoning of their political masters (sometimes, in fact, the truth is more mundane, with judge-instructor figures simply looking for fame and protagonism for themselves). As Alex de Waal puts it, “it is a nice fiction for the human rights community to believe that it is ’speaking truth to power’ and not actually exercising power.”….

From Bernie Cullen: March 5th, 2009
Do you believe that the helicopter crash that killed my classmate General Garang was really an accident? Somehow I believe things could have been quite different.

From Rick Sterling: March 5th, 2009
Good posting - yes it IS a sad day for Sudan. It seems there are people and governments who do not want peace or reconciliation to occur in Sudan. Nothing new there … the US and Eurpope could not care less how much blood was shed so long as their interests were protected. Considering Biden and Obama’s previous statements, and given the comments made today by Susan Rice as reported at ALJAZEERA.NET, it looks like tough times ahead. And we need a whole lot less confusion and more clarity as to what is really going on.
Although its influence may be waning, ’save darfur’ has created an enormous amount of confusion and misinformation.
It would be good to see more articles with hard evidence of US- European -Israeli interference and meddling.

George Clooney's blog on Chad, Darfur, Sudan and ICC

American actor and UN Messenger of Peace George Clooney starts blogging with Nothing New to Report.



The Darfurian children have no idea Clooney is a movie star, all they know is he's fun and that he's trying to help them. Photo: Ann Curry/NBC News Feb. 2009



George Clooney is actually buried underneath the giggling children who are looking at the photos he has taken of them. Photo: Ann Curry/NBC News Feb. 2009

Photo source: Ann Curry, NBC News Feb. 18, 2009 A Darfurian school house named 'Obama'



Photo: Students at the Obama School in Djabal refugee camp for Darfuris in Chad. The sign by the doorway says "Obama" in Arabic. (Nicholas D. Kristof/The New York Times Feb. 25, 2009 Africa's 'Obama' school)



Photo: Children playing in a lake outside Dogdoré, Chad. This town on the Darfur border that has become a refuge for thousands of people fleeing violence in the area. (Source: Nicholas D. Kristof/The New York Times Feb. 18, 2009 Trailing George Clooney)



Photo: Children at a refugee camp near the town of Goz Beida, Chad. (Source: Nicholas D. Kristof/The New York Times Feb. 18, 2009 Trailing George Clooney)



Photo: Dafuri refugees queue for food at the Gaga UNHCR refugee camp, near to Abeche in Chad (Source: The Times 05 March 2009 Darfur war crimes court orders arrest of President Omar al-Bashir)



Photo: More than 230,000 Dafurians have fled to eastern Chad where they exist in camps along the border (Source: The Times 05 March 2009 Darfur war crimes court orders arrest of President Omar al-Bashir)

ICC Decision Against International Law: Sudan Envoy

Addressing a news conference in Nairobi, Sudanese Ambassador to Kenya Majok Guandong said Sudan, Africa's largest country, is not member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and therefore not subject to its jurisdiction.

The Sudanese envoy's remarks came after the African Union decided at an emergency meeting on Thursday to send a high-level delegation to press the UN Security Council to delay the ICC's warrant against Sudan's President Al-Bashir.

From Xinhua (Web Editor: Zhang Jin) via CRIENGLISH.com 06 March 2009:
ICC Decision Against International Law: Sudan Envoy - excerpt:

Sudanese government said Thursday the decision by the International Criminal Court to issue a warrant of arrest against President Omar al-Bashir is contrary to the international law.

Addressing a news conference in Nairobi, Sudanese Ambassador to Kenya Majok Guandong said the Africa's largest country is not member of the ICC and therefore not subject to its jurisdiction.

Guandong said that Sudan expected the ICC decision to issue a warrant of arrest against the Sudanese leader after the court " deviated from its path and became a political tool for some powerful countries."

"We saw it coming because these countries have been using the ICC to achieve their aims and to serve their interests. Now they want to exploit the Sudan's huge resources and to sabotage the internationally-recognized economic achievements of the country," said Guandong in Nairobi.

The ambassador described the move as a Western conspiracy after Khartoum decided to expel 10 foreign organizations, two local ones, and dissolved two others after accusing them of collaborating with the ICC.

"Sudan is not member of the ICC and therefore not subject to its jurisdiction. Sudan rejects the Court's decision and will not engage with it," he said. [...]

Guandong said despite the arrest warrant Sudan will continue shouldering its responsibilities in maintaining public order by providing security to regional and international organizations and diplomatic missions accredited to Sudan.

"The Government of Sudan is committed to all peace agreements it had signed and to achieve peace throughout the country particularly in Darfur," said the ambassador.

"It pledges to continue the quest for peace through the Afro- Arab initiative or any other suitable venue. The government calls upon the rebel movements to relinquish violence and to adhere to the peaceful resolution of the conflict through a negotiated settlement."

Guandong said Sudan will continue to champion peace, democratic transformation and development as the President will continue his constitutional responsibilities and duties internally and externally.

The Sudanese envoy's remarks came after AU decided at an emergency meeting on Thursday to send a high-level delegation to press the UN Security Council to delay the warrant.

Sudan's President Bashir might be in Darfur Sunday - Aid workers stuck in Khartoum awaiting exit visas

As noted in previous post here at Sudan Watch, the names of the 13 NGOs ordered to leave Sudan appear to be: Oxfam GB, Care, MSF-Holland, Mercy Corps, Save the Children UK, Norwegian Refugee Council, International Rescue Committee, Action Contre La Faim, Solidarities, CHF International, Save the Children USA, PADCO, MSF-France.

Here are some of the latest tweets from Rob Crilly in Darfur (as at Thurs 17:56 pm GMT):

UN official on ICC: "this is the ultimate in Western self-indulgence," as aid agencies expelled etc
11 minutes ago from web

aid workers now stuck in Khartoum. Must wait for exit visas - the final irony
36 minutes ago from web

Tired, smelly. Out of anti-perspirant. Word is Bashir coming here on Sunday but I need a drink
about 1 hour ago from web

More than 2.5 million people will be affected by Sudan gov't expulsion of NGOs in Darfur

Sudan's Vice-President, Ali Osman Taha, stressed that the Government of National Unity will not cooperate with the ICC.

Speaking to Sudan Radio Service in Juba on Thursday, a day after Sudan ordered the expulsion of 10 international organizations, an SPLM spokesperson described the decision taken by the NCP as "unfortunate".

More than 2.5 million people will be affected by Sudan government's expulsion of international NGOs in Darfur.

The names of the thirteen NGOs ordered to leave Sudan appear to be: Oxfam GB, Care, MSF-Holland, Mercy Corps, Save the Children UK, Norwegian Refugee Council, International Rescue Committee, Action Contre La Faim, Solidarities, CHF International, Save the Children USA, PADCO, MSF-France.

Here is a copy of some of today's news from Sudan Radio Service:

5 March - (Khartoum) - President Al-Bashir says the Government of National Unity will act responsibly following the decision by the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant against him.

Addressing an emergency meeting of the council of ministers in Khartoum on Thursday, al-Bashir called the ICC decision the latest in a series of conspiracies against Sudan.

Al-Bashir declared that Sudan would act responsibly if attempts were made to ‘destabilize’ the country.

[al-Bashir – Arabic]:” As a government, we will react as a responsible government. We will not behave emotionally or respond negatively. However, we will act responsibly but deal severely with anybody who tries to destabilize the security of the country”.

After the meeting, President al-Bashir went to address a crowd of one million demonstrators who had gathered to condemn the ICC decision.

[Sound of the crowd cheering: ”We will never go down on our knees and bow to the Americans”]

Al-Bashir told the demonstrators that the arrest warrant issued by the ICC is an attempt at colonization.

[Al-Bashir 3 –Arabic] :”On your behalf, we are sending this call to the free people in the third world, Latin America, Africa, the Arab world, Asia and to the free people of Europe. This decision is a new colonization and an attempt to dominant us again, because they want to steal our resources.”

Al-Bashir also accused some of the anti-government organizations in Darfur of benefiting from the conflict and accused them of obstructing the peace process in Darfur.

Al-Bashir also announced the expulsion of ten NGOs.

[Al-Bashir ]:”We say to our guests from the voluntary NGOs, our guests from the diplomatic missions, that if you follow the serious way, and you respect your selves, we will hold you over our heads, otherwise those who step out of line should only blame themselves.

Today we chased out ten foreign organizations, among them Americans and British because all of them are being used as tools by other organizations, our guests should respect us, or we will humiliate them.”

The ten foreign NGOs concerned by the expulsion are: Oxfam, Care, MSF-Holland, and Mercy Corps, Save the Children, the Norwegian Refugee Council, the International Rescue Committee, Action Contre La Faim, Solidarities, and CHF International.
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5 March - (Oxford) - Ali McDonald is a spokesperson for Oxfam, one of the NGOs which are threatened with expulsion.

[McDonald]: “We received a letter yesterday evening from the government saying that our registration for northern Sudan was being revoked. There were no details on why, or any deadline for when to leave the country by and we are currently trying to appeal against the decision and we so hope that it can be reversed and we can stay operating in Sudan. However, at the moment it is very unclear. All our programs are currently suspended; many of our international staff are now being moved to Khartoum. So for Oxfam, this will affect about 600,000 people in terms of they won’t be receiving the assistance that they need.”

McDonald went on to explain Oxfam’s mission in Sudan.

[McDonald]: “We don’t have links to institutions like the ICC, our concern is the humanitarian needs and the development needs in Sudan. By reacting in this way, by expelling aid agencies, the people that the government of Sudan is harming most are the Sudanese people who need our help.”

That was Ali McDonald, spokesperson for Oxfam International, speaking to Sudan Radio Service from Nairobi.
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5 March - (London) - More than 2.5 million people will be affected by the government’s directive to expel 10 non-governmental organizations operating in Darfur.

Gill Lusk is an associate editor of Africa Confidential. Sudan Radio Service asked her to evaluate the consequences of the expulsion for the people receiving aid:

[Gill Lusk]: “It’s very serious, it would affect of course the people of Darfur because there are 2.5 million people roughly in the displaced peoples‘ camps in Darfur and they are getting a lot of food, medical aid, other support from those agencies and foreign aid agencies. They’ve also resorted to Sudanese aid agencies based in Khartoum, both of which are seen as fighting for human rights in Sudan and they’ve both been closed down.”

Lusk urges the foreign countries operating in Sudan to protect and continue to provide humanitarian aid to the people of Darfur.

[Gill Lusk]: “I think it would be very important for the international community or other governments whether they would be western or African, Asian, China, all involved in Sudan through the oil to try and protect people, especially in Darfur. Because the Sudan government is expected to attack and it’s already doing that through the NGOs.”

That was Gill Lusk, associate editor of Africa Confidential, speaking to Sudan Radio Service from London.
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5 March - (Eastern Chad) - Over 30,000 refugees from Darfur in eastern Chad are celebrating after the ICC announcement concerning President Omar al-Bashir.

The head of the Humanitarian Committee in the Justice and Equality Movement anti-government group told Sudan Radio Service on Thursday that they are happy with the ICC announcement.

[Adin Mohammed Mahim]: “We are celebrating the arrest warrant issued by the ICC against President al-Bashir. In fact, all the people and all the refugees are very happy. All the widows, orphans and the marginalized. We are gathering and hoping that the ICC will arrest President Omar al-Bashir and cut his neck.”

The director general of a school for refugees, in eastern Chad, Hamid Taj el-Din Yahya, was present at the event.

[Hamid Taj el-Din]: ”We are organizing this celebration and you can hear the cheering and words of the supporters of this decision by the ICC. All of us in this camp, and there are about 35,000 Sudanese refugees here, are celebrating this event.”

Another refugee, Husna Omer Mohamed, describes her feelings towards al-Bashir.

Husna Omer]: “President al-Bashir, we are very happy today for the arrest warrant. We hope that God will cut your neck; you have killed our mothers, fathers, daughters, uncles. You have thrown us in the desert and valleys.”
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5 March - (Paris) - Following the ICC decision on Wednesday, Sudan Radio Service spoke to Roland Marchal, a Paris-based political analyst. He says that issuing the arrest warrant will not damage the peace process in Sudan.

[Roland Marchal]: “ICC supporters have a point when they underline that actually the ICC is not destroying, or freezing or weakening the peace process because actually there is no peace process going on. And despite this 1593 resolution, despite the request by Mr. Ocampo to indict President al-Bashir in July last year, we haven’t witnessed any significant progress in the resolution of the Darfur conflict, so we have to take this into account in our own assessment of the situation.”

[SRS]: Why do you think that the judges chose not to include the charge of genocide?

[Roland Marchal]: “For quite sometime there has been a discussion on whether the claim for genocide could be supported by evidence. The issue again is not a political one, it is a legal one and so the question is whether Ocampo was able to supply the court with hard evidence on genocide cases. And so beyond the Sudan Darfur case, there has been an on-going debate on whether the use of the term genocide has become a bit too relaxed by activists and sometimes even lawyers and that may not help the understanding of conflicts.”

That was Roland Marchal, a political analyst and expert on Sudanese affairs, speaking to Sudan Radio Service from Paris.
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5 March - (Khartoum) - The Government of National Unity says it rejects the decision by the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for President al-Bashir.

In a press conference after the announcement on Wednesday, the first Vice-President, Ali Osman Taha, stressed that the Government of National Unity will not cooperate with the ICC.

[Osman Taha]: “In its meeting held on Wednesday, the presidency decided to completely reject the arrest warrant against President Omar al-Bashir and emphasizes that the government of Sudan refuses to cooperate with the decision or to respond to it in any case.”

The ICC indicted al-Bashir on seven counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity which include murder, rape and torture.
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5 March - (Juba) - In response to the ICC’s decision to issue an arrest warrant for President al-Bashir for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur, the SPLM is urging the NCP to avoid confrontation with the international community.

Speaking to Sudan Radio Service in Juba on Thursday, a day after Sudan ordered the expulsion of 10 international organizations, the SPLM spokesperson described the decision taken by the NCP as "unfortunate".

[Yien Mathew Chol]: “The SPLM regret that such humanitarian NGOs are chased out of the country. This is not a bilateral position taken by the partners. We have not discussed such issues with out partners, it is the personal behavior of the NCP and our advice as SPLM remains that the issue should be approached with restraint and wisdom and so we regret the government's attitude for that reason.”

He said that issuing the arrest warrant should not be seen as a conspiracy but an opportunity to bring peace, security and stability in the country.

Yien said the SPLM maintains its earlier position regarding the ICC saying the issue is a legal one and the only way to deal with it is to engage with ICC legally and cooperate with the international community. He urged the NCP to avoid confrontation with the court.
- - -

Charles Haskins
News Programming Advisor
Sudan Radio Service (SRS)
a project of Education Development Center
T: +254 715 05 2924 or +254 (20) 387 0906
F: +254 (20) 387 6520

Listen to SRS on the radio or on the web at www.sudanradio.org

European Commission statement on the expulsion of certain NGOs from Sudan

Here is a copy of a statement from the European Commission Spokesman for Development and Humanitarian Aid on the explusion of certain NGOs (13, so far) from Sudan.

BRUSSELS, Kingdom of Belgium, March 5, 2009 via African Press Organization:

Statement On the expulsion of certain NGOs from Sudan

“The European Commission is seriously concerned by this action by the Sudanese government and we are monitoring the situation closely. Clearly, If the status and access for these NGOs is not reinstated immediately then this would seriously affect the continuation of humanitarian life-saving operations in Darfur. Let’s be very clear: the lives of hundreds of thousands of people are at stake. This situation could also further destabilise the Darfur region and this would be in nobody’s interest. We would urge the Government of Sudan to urgently restore these NGOs to their full operational status. Furthermore, it is important to underline that humanitarian aid is provided on the basis of the needs, in an impartial and non-discriminatory way to all Sudanese affected by the conflict and independently from any political agenda. It is essential that the humanitarian access and security be guaranteed.” John Clancy, European Commission Spokesman for Development and Humanitarian Aid

The lives of hundreds of thousands of people are at stake eh? No doubt the European Commission (EC)thought about that before it backed the move by the International Criminal Court against Sudan. So what if Khartoum does not reinstate the NGOs, what is the EC going to do about it? Surely it now has no alternative but to pressure members of the UN Security Council to suspend the arrest warrant against Sudan's President Al-Bashir. And, to be fair, they ought to pressure the ICC for arrest warrants against the Sudanese and Chadian rebel group leaders and those responsible for the slaying for Darfur peacekeepers at Haskanita, And, while they are at it, expel any Sudanese and Chadian rebel group member from Europe, especially chubby cheeked fat cat Nur sitting on his backside in Paris, France directing the Darfur war from his armchair while "his people" suffer and starve.

3 more NGOs expelled from Sudan: Save the Children USA, PADCO and MSF (Doctors Without Borders) France

Right now here in England it is 16:00 PM GMT Thursday 5 March. Latest tweets from Rob Crilly in Darfur, western Sudan:

NGO staff held at gunpoint in Nyala on way to airport to leave. They were stopped by national security, very people kicking em out
about 1 hour ago from web

Just dragged an entire patrol back from the camps so that i can file.
about 1 hour ago from txt

Driving through al salaam camp listening to bon jovi. My choice would be sonic youth for humanitarian emergencies
about 1 hour ago from txt

Hac released full list. Save the children US, PADCO and msf france
about 1 hour ago from txt

Three.more ngos out. No more details
about 1 hour ago from txt

Dragged entire patrol out of the camps just so I can file
about 1 hour ago from web

Welcome to all my new followers. I'll be following you all soon but kinda busy right now
about 1 hour ago from web
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UPDATE see Sudan Watch 5 March 2009:
More than 2.5 million people will be affected by Sudan gov't expulsion of NGOs in Darfur

The names of the thirteen NGOs ordered to leave Sudan appear to be: Oxfam GB, Care, MSF-Holland, Mercy Corps, Save the Children UK, Norwegian Refugee Council, International Rescue Committee, Action Contre La Faim, Solidarities, CHF International, Save the Children USA, PADCO, MSF-France.

UN General Assembly chief apologises over 'absurd' ICC warrant against Sudan's Bashir

UN General Assembly president Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann said he regretted that a warrant had been issued to arrest Sudan's President, saying the move was absurd and politically-motivated.

Hassabo Mohamed Abdel-Rahman, head of the government's Humanitarian Aid Commission, said some aid groups had "passed evidence to the ICC" and made false reports of genocide and rape.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is "concerned" about the reported expulsions, a spokeswoman said. "He notes that this represents a serious setback to lifesaving operations in Darfur, and urges the government of Sudan to act urgently to restore these (non-government organizations) to their full operational status," U.N. spokeswoman Michelle Montas said.



Photo: Some in the crowd carried banners branding the court's prosecutor a criminal. (Reuters)

From AFP/Reuters Thursday 05 March 2009 via abc.net:
UN Assembly chief apologises over 'absurd' ICC warrant

UN General Assembly president Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann said he regretted that a warrant had been issued to arrest Sudan's President, saying the move was absurd and politically-motivated.

"I am sorry about this decision of the ICC [International Criminal Court] and I think it's a more a decision motivated by political considerations than really for the sake of advancing the cause of justice in the world," the Nicaraguan diplomat, a former foreign minister said.

Mr Brockmann said the prosecution against President Omar al-Bashir should have been delayed, as called for by the African Union and the Arab League, in order to allow peace talks to make progress.

"A few people with a very dubious past and with very little credibility pretend to know better than the whole African Union. This is absurd and really not an adequate way to deal with this issue," he said.

The ICC on Wednesday issued the warrant against Bashir on Wednesday, accusing him of masterminding a campaign of extermination, rape and pillage during the six-year conflict in Darfur.

Mr Brockmann said that for international justice to regain its credibility, "it would be important to begin by indicting people from very powerful nations, not to pick on the smaller ones."

"This is neither brave nor do I think represents a real commitment to justice in the world," he said.

"What would help is to have some of the very powerful individuals guilty of what without a doubt represents the worst atrocities right now in the world, that they should be [indicted]."

He would not specify names of powerful nations or individuals, saying only that "everyone knows the greatest atrocities today is that being committed in Iraq."

Aid agencies expelled

Sudan's president told thousands of cheering supporters the warrant was a colonialist ploy and announced the expulsion of 10 foreign aid agencies.

Bashir said the ICC was a tool of imperialists targeting Sudan for its oil, natural gas and other resources.

"We have refused to kneel to colonialism, that is why Sudan has been targeted ... because we only kneel to God," he told a crowd outside the Republican Palace.

Cheers of "We are ready to protect religion!" and "Down, down USA!" interrupted his speech from thousands of protesters. Washington has welcomed the ICC warrant.

Some in the crowd carried banners branding the court's prosecutor a criminal and Bashir, 65, danced along to nationalist songs.

He earlier accused the aid agencies of breaking the law and said the government would tackle any attack on stability. The ICC has no powers of arrest and relies on national police forces to hand suspects over.

"We will deal responsibly and decisively with anybody who tries to target the stability and security of the country," Bashir told a meeting of top politicians on Thursday.

"We have expelled 10 foreign organisations ... after monitoring activities that act in contradiction to all regulation and laws," he said.

The international medical aid agency Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said warned the withdrawals would intensify the country's humanitarian crisis.

"This withdrawal will have terrible consequences for the 400,000 people, including many refugees, for whom MSF France and Netherlands are the only source of medical care," a spokesman warned.

Hassabo Mohamed Abd el-Rahman, head of the government's Humanitarian Aid Commission, said some groups had "passed evidence to the ICC" and made false reports of genocide and rape.

State of fear

Darfur activist Hussein Abu Sharati, who says he represents residents of 158 displacement camps, said most people there were overjoyed by the ICC's decision, but were too scared to show it.

Other camp residents said most displaced Darfuris were staying in their shelters to avoid confronting security forces.

"Inside people are happy," said a resident of Abu Shouk displacement camp in north Darfur, who asked not to be named. "But everyone is keeping quiet. Nobody goes outside. The market is closed."

UN officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the expulsions would have a devastating impact on Darfuris, adding that Sudanese security had already started taking computers and other assets from the agencies' offices in Khartoum and Darfur.

Embassies have been on high alert in the build-up to the court's decision, fearing attacks, although Sudanese authorities have promised to protect diplomatic premises.

Britain, the United States and France have been repeatedly accused by Sudanese government officials of supporting the ICC. Several rocks were thrown at the British embassy after a protest against the ICC decision on Wednesday.

- - -

Sudan orders aid agencies to leave
From UPI Thursday 05 March 2009 - excerpt:

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is "concerned" about the reported expulsions, a spokeswoman said.

"He notes that this represents a serious setback to lifesaving operations in Darfur, and urges the government of Sudan to act urgently to restore these (non-government organizations) to their full operational status," U.N. spokeswoman Michelle Montas said.

Sudanese officials have insisted on accompanying some NGO employees into their offices, taking lists of assets and staff, she said.

Montas said the affected agencies are "the main providers of life-saving humanitarian services, such as water, food, health and sanitation."

- - -

Profile: Omar Al Bashir

From Asharq Al-Awsat Thursday 05 March 2009: Profile: Omar Al Bashir

China will call on ICC not to hear Bashir Darfur case for the time being

From Voice of America News by Alison Klayman (Beijing) 05 March 2009 - China Opposes ICC Warrant for Sudan's President - excerpt:

China is opposing the International Criminal Court's issuance of an arrest warrant for the Sudanese president and says the move will not help stabilize the situation in the war-torn African nation.

China has expressed regret that the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters, Thursday, China does not believe the indictment will contribute to peace and stability in the Darfur region.

Spokesman Qin says he hopes the United Nations will listen to the appeals of the African Union, Arab League and the Non-Aligned Movement and will call on the ICC not to hear the case, for the time being. [...]

Spokesman Qin says China has made efforts to promote stability in the region and has 315 peacekeepers in Darfur.

Qin says China believes the current strategy of negotiations, combined with the joint African Union-United Nations peacekeeping force, is already making sufficient progress towards peace in Darfur.

From the BBC In Pictures

As Bashir supporters displayed their loyalty, China urged the court to postpone the case, warning it risked destabilising Darfur.



Some Arab nations also said the ruling would hinder Darfur peace efforts but the US and EU welcomed the ICC decision.



From Telegraph UK by Mike Pflanz in Nairobi 05 Mar 2009 - Sudan President Omar al Bashir calls ICC arrest warrant a 'conspiracy' - excerpt:

A defiant Mr Bashir expelled ten of the largest international aid agencies from its war-ravaged western province on Wednesday. On Thursday hundreds of thousands of Darfuris woke facing the threat of reduced food and closing clinics. The move came less than four hours after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Sudan's president, Omar al Bashir, for seven counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Senior managers from the ten organisations, which included Oxfam, Save The Children and Medecins Sans Frontieres, were in emergency meetings early on Thursday to plot a path forward. "We are working out how we can appeal against the decision," said Alun McDonald, Oxfam spokesman in Nairobi. "If we are forced to leave, it is going to be incredibly difficult to hand over our work to other agencies. They are already very overstretched themselves, and Oxfam is currently providing assistance to 400,000 people in Darfur. "You can't just pass that on to others."

In El Fasher, Darfur's largest town, aid workers were 'on lockdown', fearing further expulsion orders from the Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) authorities. "No-one's planning to do anything much today, we're not going to the camps, we're just waiting to see what HAC does next," said one staff member with a Western agency. "We kind of expected something like this, but had managed to convince ourselves that it wouldn't be too bad. It looks like we might have been wrong."

Mr Bashir told a rally in the capital's Martyrs Square: "We will not kneel. We are targeted because we refuse to submit."



The African Union is holding an emergency meeting in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa to discuss the arrest warrant.



From Telegraph UK by Mike Pflanz in Nairobi 05 Mar 2009 - Sudan President Omar al Bashir calls ICC arrest warrant a 'conspiracy' - excerpt:

Sudan's president, Omar al Bashir, has dismissed the arrest warrant against him as "a conspiracy" at a mass rally of thousands of supporters, as Darfuris confront life without aid agencies.

Mr Bashir said the ICC's case was a western ploy to target Sudan's oil and gas resources. "We have refused to kneel to colonialism, that is why Sudan has been targeted ... because we only kneel to God," he told cheering crowds in Khartoum.

Mr Bashir will continue with a planned visit to Qatar later this month.

AU will send delegation to UN to try halt ICC's warrant against Sudan's Bashir

AFP report 5 March 2009 (ADDIS ABABA) via Africasia.com
AU to seek UN's intervention to halt Beshir warrant

The African Union said Thursday it will send a delegation to the UN to try to halt the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar al-Beshir.

The move would "give a chance for peace in Sudan," said the chairman of the bloc's Peace and Security Council, Bruno Zidouemba, after an emergency meeting in the Ethiopian capital.

He said the council "decided to pursue ways with the international community, and especially the UN Security Council, to halt the proceedings to give a chance for peace in Sudan."

My guess and hope is that they will eventually succeed: think of the children of Sudan and give peace a chance. The late great Mahatma Gandhi would agree, I'm sure. Life is short enough under the best of circumstances. Recently I read a news story about Libyan leader Col. Gaddafi's plans to develop his country like a co-operative and give equal shares in oil revenues to all Libyans. Hopefully he will inspire Mr Bashir to do innovative things for Sudan, especially when it comes to land. Why can't each Sudanese citizen be given a plot of land to own and farm?

Root problem of Darfur crisis is outside Sudan and beyond remit of Sudan's Bashir

Here is a thought provoking comment posted to Sudan Watch a few minutes ago from Dr. Md. Mahmudul Hasan of Dhaka University in Bangladesh. His analogy of Somalia makes sense to me.  After all that's been written about Darfur, I wonder why we still cannot identify who is at the root of the problem. Why doesn't Mr Bashir reveal the real story of Darfur?  Surely he and his colleagues must know the truth of who is supporting the insurgents in Sudan and why rebel leaders still remain free to come and go as they please, whilst instigating anarchy, mayhem, murder and the slaying of Darfur peacekeepers. Why doesn't anybody mention Al-Qaeda? The archives here at Sudan Watch show that Al-Qaeda is entrenched in Khartoum. It's like having an elephant in the room that everybody can see but nobody cares to mention.

The International Criminal Court and the Arrest Warrant of al-Bashir

If one can unlearn the information served by all the regular news bulletins of western media and do some independent investigation of the Darfur crisis, one may find the root of the problem outside the Sudan and beyond the remit of President Omar al-Bashir. A good analogy may be the Somalia crisis and how Ethiopia was used to destabilize the country by invasion and mass killings. Here one may find Chad in place of Ethiopia, and how the former is playing a vicious role to prolong the Darfur crisis. I leave such discussion to experts in international relations.

However, the indictment and the arrest warrant issued for al-Bashir deserve some thoughts. The Darfur problem has continued in al-Bashir's sovereign country and he dealt with it in the way he did. He may be right or wrong. But the arrest warrant may not be for his role in Darfur, but for his resistance to western influence and presence in his country.

The entire world witnessed war crimes and genocides compounded by the destruction of infrastructures and educational institutions in Gaza. I think we the underdogs of the world are cognizant enough to know what the International Criminal Court is, and our understanding of it inhibits us to expect any arrest warrant to be issued for Ehud Olmert, Shimon Peres and the numerous other war criminals inside and outside Israel. Let justice prevail!

Dr. Md. Mahmudul Hasan
Department of English
Dhaka University
Bangladesh
Tel: 00880-1918349657

Iran says ICC's Bashir warrant is unfair, a violation of the 1961 Vienna convention

From The Earth Times 5 March 2009:
Tehran condemns ICC warrant against al-Bashir

(Tehran) - Tehran on Thursday condemned the International Criminal Court's (ICC) decision to issue a warrant for the arrest of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, ISNA news agency reported. "The warrant is unfair, a violation of the 1961 Vienna convention and based on political resentment by imperialistic world powers," Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hassan Ghashghavi said.

The ICC On Wednesday issued a warrant for al-Bashir's arrest on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes.
"At a time when the ICC ignores the inhuman war crimes in Afghanistan, Lebanon and Palestine, such a warrant reflects a clear discrimination in implementing justice and therefore (is) unacceptable for the international society," the spokesman said.

"The problem in Darfur is an internal matter of Sudan and should be settled through wise and peaceful means," Ghashghavi added.

Laptops and phones being taken from charities in Darfur, Sudan now

Here in England right now it is 11:16 am Thursday 5 March. Four hours ago, Rob Crilly twittered from Darfur saying "laptops and phones are being taken from charities now". He says more demos are being planned in El Fasher, Darfur, western Sudan. Streets empty at present, only security forces around. Ten aid agencies ordered to leave, Caritas not one of the 10 (so far). NGOs are appealing expulsion orders.

Rob says he is getting increasingly irritated by celebrations for the ICC (me too!) and says "people should check out what's happening on the ground in Darfur, not listen to Save Darfur."

And there's more. Rob has managed to update his blog with NGOs from last night. Here is a copy:

Bashir Reacts
on March 5, 2009 4:39 AM

Only about one par made it into The Times story today so the whole thing is posted below. There may be more NGOs on way out. Diplomats also braced for expulsions today - they take longer to arrange. And what about the peace v justice debate? I'll post on that later, but it seems for now that the quest for justice comes at a pretty high price. Here also is the scene in El Fasher yesterday, as Bashir's war machine puts on a show of strength.

ROB CRILLY
El Fasher, Darfur
The Sudanese government yesterday began ordering aid agencies to leave the country, leaving millions of people without aid in Darfur.

Officials began telephoning charities at 16:05 local time, seconds after the International Criminal Court announced it had issued a warrant for the arrest of Omar al-Bashir.

They were told their registration in the country was cancelled with immediate effect.

The charities expelled include Oxfam, Care International and Action Contre la Faim - all seen as "big hitters".

Staff will begin leaving the country today (THU).

"We didn't know how the government was going to react," said a Western diplomatic source. "This is one of our worst-case scenarios."

Aid organisations have long had a tricky relationship with Khartoum, which regularly denies visas for staff or closes off areas where it is conducting military operations.

However, the humanitarian operation was one of the few successes in Darfur, helping care for more than 4m people.

About two and a half million people live in camps after being forced from their homes by fighting.

Agencies were concerned that they could face a backlash from the government, fears that now appear well-founded.

Penny Lawrence, Oxfam's International Director, said the charity would appeal the decision.

"If Oxfam's registration is revoked, it will affect more than 600,000 Sudanese people whom we provide with vital humanitarian and development aid, including clean water and sanitation on a daily basis. 400,000 of them are affected by the ongoing conflict in Darfur - where people continue to flee from violence and the humanitarian needs remain enormous. It will also affect another 200,000 poor people in the east of the country and Khartoum state."

An aid official said the move would have a catastrophic impact in areas where charities were distributing food and medicine.
"The largest aid operation in the world hinges on the NGOs. Asking 10 of them to leave will seriously compromise its effectiveness."

Yesterday (WED) The Times revealed that six agencies had been asked to leave key sites in Darfur.

Today they were ordered out of the country altogether.

The other agencies are CHF, Solidarites, MSF-Holland, Save the Children UK (which was not operating in darfur), Norwegian Refugee Council, The International Rescue Committee.

Khartoum has expelled numerous aid workers in the past and maintained a steady level of harassment. Jewish staff have been accused of being Mossad agents and several charities have been smeared in the government-controlled press, accused of using out-of-date medicines.