Sudan Islamist opposition leader, Hassan Al-Turabi, has been released from prison nearly two months after he was detained, his family says. Turabi was arrested by Security officers on January 14, 2009 two days after he urged Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir to surrender to the International Criminal Court (ICC).
In the 1990s when Sudan hosted al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, Mr Turabi was widely seen as the driving force behind Khartoum’s promotion of militant Islamist groups. Siddig said his father appeared in good health but had lost weight. Bashir Adam Rahman, secretary for international affairs in Mr Turabi’s party, was also released, Siddig said.
Source: Reuters report at FT.com Monday, March 9, 2009 - Sudan frees Islamist opposition leader
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Sudan frees Islamist opposition leader -- family
Reuters report dated Sunday March 8, 2009 9:19pm EDT:
KHARTOUM, March 9 (Reuters) - Sudan released an Islamist opposition leader on Monday, two months after he was detained for calling on Sudan's president to surrender to the International Criminal Court, his family said.See similar reports from BBC Monday, 9 March 2009 04:10 GMT (Sudan Islamist leader 'released') and Press TV Iran Monday, 9 March 2009 09:53:48 GMT (Sudanese opposition leader "freed")
Hassan al-Turabi was freed from prison in Port Sudan and flown to his home in Khartoum in the early hours without any explanation, his son Siddig told Reuters.
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Photo: Hassan Al-Turabi, the 77-year-old opposition chief had accused the president of being "politically culpable" for the crimes committed in the country's western region. He was a key ally of Al-Bashir until they split in a power struggle 10 years ago and is now the head of the Popular Congress Party and a vocal critic of Al-Bashir. He has been however, linked to the Islamist rebel Justice and Equality movement (JEM), an allegation he has denied.
From the Christian Science Monitor, by Liam Stack (Cairo) Monday, 9 March 2009 - Turabi, influential Sudanese Islamist, freed from prison - excerpt:
Turabi is a major figure in Sudan, Africa’s largest country. He was once a key Bashir ally and seen as the spiritual force behind the 1989 coup that swept him to power.- - -
During the 1990s, he was a leading advocate for the imposition of sharia, or Islamic law, in the multireligious country, spurring further conflict between the Muslim-dominated North and the largely Christian and animist South.
He was also a strong supporter of the presence of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Sudan, which led to US airstrikes against that country following the 1998 terrorist bombings of US Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.
Since then, Turabi and Bashir’s political partnership crumbled. Turabi’s outlook became more moderate, and he and Bashir have become fierce opponents. In January, Turabi was the only major Sudanese politician to call for Bashir to cooperate with the war-crimes tribunal, telling reporters:
“Politically we think he is culpable…. He should assume responsibility for whatever is happening in Darfur, displacement, burning all the villages, rapes, I mean systematic rapes, continuously, I mean on a wide scale and the killing,” according to Agence France-Presse.
His family kept up their criticism during his detention, with his wife, Wisal al-Mahdi, telling The Sudan Tribune that her husband had been detained because of “personal grudges.”
“There is no rule of law in this country,” she said. “He who has the power makes his own laws.”
Turabi was briefly detained last year following a daring attack on the Khartoum suburb of Omdurman by the Darfuri Islamist Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), which he has denied all links to.
From Sudan Radio Service Monday, 9 March 2009:
(Khartoum) - The leader of the opposition Popular Congress Party, Doctor Hassan Al Turabi, has been released from prison, after two months in detention.- - -
Sudan Security and National Intelligent Service released Dr. Turabi from prison in Port Sudan in the Red Sea State early on Monday morning and escorted him to his house in Menshiya in Khartoum.
Sudan Radio Service spoke to Turabi’s son, Siddiq Turabi, in Khartoum. He said that his father was released after being detained without charge.
[Siddiq Turabi]: “The National Security Act in Sudan gives the government the right to arrest and to release without giving any reasons. He was arrested following the statement he made regarding the ICC, as you know. His release came after lengthy political and individual communications. And after the reason why he was arrested no longer existed and because there are a lot of decisions that have been announced regarding the same issue. That’s why the reason to arrest him has become weak and that's maybe why the security agents decided to release him.”
The Popular Congress Party’s Secretary for Youth and Students, Yasser Abdalla Ibrahim told Sudan Radio Service in Khartoum on Monday that Doctor Turabi was released from detention following complaints by his family to the Khartoum authorities following a deterioration of Turabi’s health in prison.
Abdalla said Dr. Turabi will undergo intensive medical treatment after his release from detention. He ruled out any possibility of Dr. Turabi addressing a press conference soon due to his poor health.
Dr. Turabi was arrested on 15th January this year following a press statement to foreign media in which he said that President Omar al-Bashir was responsible for crimes against humanity in Darfur and that he should face the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Turabi was detained briefly at Kobar prison in Khartoum-North and was later transferred to Port Sudan Prison in the Red Sea State, 700 kilometers from Khartoum.
Three days before the ICC announcement, rumours were circulating in Khartoum that Dr. Turabi had died in Port Sudan prison. Analysts said the rumours were a ploy to by unknown politicians to force the government to release Turabi.
At a press conference following the judges’ decision in The Hague last Wednesday, Vice President Ali Osman Taha told journalists that Turabi could be released from detention any time, if the authorities deemed it necessary to do so..
Sudanese writer comments on Al-Turabi and Al-Bashir's "last dance"
According to Mohamed Hassan Bashir, the Sudanese author of an article reprinted here below, Al Turabi used to say of Sudan's President Omar Al Bashir that "Al Bashir is a gift from God to us". The article is telling of the Sudanese president:
"In the 1990s he submitted to the role of merely a token head of state, while his mentor Al Turabi was the real force behind the throne. But in the late 1990s he finally got fed up with the role of a front man. He wanted to lead and he has severed his ties with Al Turabi since then. To his credit, he has yet to develop the typical megalomaniac characteristics of his predecessor Ja'far Numayri, and other regional dictators. He does lack a natural leadership charisma, although he is described by his associates as an affable, humorous and laid-back kind of person, a "true Sudanese". Sometimes he can get very emotional, in his recent visit to the River Nile state a local woman offered him her child, the childless president lost control of his emotions and cried openly. [...]Yesterday, a copy of the article plus 13 comments were forwarded to me in an email from someone I have not had contact with before. The author of the email is "deeply dismayed by the poorly-informed level of debate and the blizzard of propaganda from apologists and stooges for the National Islamic Front regime" and believes that the article "gives a bit more depth and accuracy to the current furore". The email ends by saying:
As a reaction to the ICC in a rally last month in the state of Sinnar-South Eastern Sudan, he said, "I swear to God I will not surrender even a single cat from Sudan". Regarding the court ruling he said, "They can soak it in water and drink it". After each rally Al Bashir performs a customary dance, one of his favourite songs is a traditional Sudanese one whose lyrics go something like this: "They entered [the battlefield] and the vultures fly [over the enemy's dead bodies]". [...]
From his supporters' point of view, if you fast-forward 20 years, the accidental coup leader is now considered a national icon, a symbol of the country's sovereignty. The future and the destiny of the nation were linked with his fate, because he rules "through God's will".
"Personally, I'll never forget the Khartoumers who told me in 1985 that the Darfuris arriving on their doorstep because of famine weren't Sudanese at all, but Chadian -the same racist spin they put on the South, the Nuba Mts, anywhere beyond their personal horizons. No surprise that they're demonstrating now. Plus ca change..."Mohamed Hassan Bashir is a Sudanese based in Italy. Here is a copy of his article, in full, along with 13 comments posted at Sudan Tribune's website. I have added red highlights for future reference. Note, re the "Options" section of the article, my guess is: the third option - and that a way will be found to suspend the ICC proceedings against the Sudanese president, probably via the African Union that was formed (at great expense to the European Union and European taxpayers) in 2002 to provide "African solutions to African problems" (more on this in an upcoming post here at Sudan Watch). It will be very interesting to see what happens next, and when, regarding the ICC's case against Darfur rebel leaders and those responsible for the horrific slaying of Darfur peacekeepers in Haskanita. Going by what I have read, such attacks on peacekeepers are classed as a war crime.
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Text of commentary by Mohamed Hassan Bashir entitled "Fate, destiny and the last dance of Sudan's President" in English by Paris-based Sudanese newspaper Sudan Tribune website, 05 March 2009:
"Fate, destiny and the last dance of Sudan's President"
Ironical as it may seem, the original candidate to lead 1989's coup d'etat was another Brigadier named Uthman Ahmad Al-Hassan, because he was the leader of the Islamist group in the Sudan Armed Forces at the time. However, he was hastily replaced just a few days before the coup, because Uthman wanted the army to have complete control over political power in the country. Nevertheless the civilian plotters had second thoughts and they selected Umar Hassan al Bashir, considering him an easygoing officer who could be effortlessly controlled and manipulated.
Al Turabi used to say, "Al Bashir is a gift from God to us"
In ancient Aztec tradition the most handsome of the prisoners captured on the battlefield would be made king. Protected by guards and dressed in robes, his every need was satisfied for a whole year. Then the king was lead to the top of the temple pyramid. Here, stripped naked, he was stretched out on an altar, his torso was sliced open and his heart torn out and offered to the gods. This ritual celebrated the return of spring. These Aztec rituals now haunt the unfortunate second choice of the 1989 coup because little did he know that he would now be experiencing the pain that once was felt at the top of the temple pyramid. Following the ICC indictment, his soul has been sliced open for the entire world to see. In the Aztec case the King lost his life, in Sudan's case the leader has lost his soul and dignity.
Destiny
The unknown 45-year-old coup leader delivered his first statement in 1989 to the Sudanese people and said: "the coup was to save the country from rotten political parties. Your armed forces have come to carry out a tremendous revolution for the sake of change after suffering that has included the deterioration of everything to the extent that your lives have become paralysed". The coup was also aimed at preventing the signing of a peace treaty with John Garang's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in July 1989. As a result the country paid a heavy price, a million died and more millions were displaced and uprooted.
Suffering had arrived in Sudan
Umar Hassan Al Bashir was born on January 1st 1944, in Hosh Banga, a small village on the banks of the river Nile located 80kms north of Khartoum. He went to primary school in Shandi, a nearby town, and then moved with his family to Khartoum and enrolled in a secondary school there. His father was a dairy farm worker in Kafori, north of Khartoum.
Hassan al Bashir struggled to feed his large family of eight boys and four girls, but working hard in his early days in Khartoum he eventually succeeded in educating his kids. His father was regarded as a follower of the Khatmiyya sect and a committed supporter of the Democratic Unionist party. However, Umar seems to have chosen a radically different path from his father's and he joined the Muslim Brothers organization at an early age, as did many of his siblings. Young Umar also seems to have been fascinated by the military and after graduating from secondary school he joined the Sudan Military Academy and graduated in 1967.
For a period he lead an uneventful life like most of his follow citizens, and progressed normally in different military posts, including military attache in the United Arab Emirates (1975-79), garrison commander (1979-81) and head of the armoured parachute brigade in Khartoum (1981-87). In 1987 he was appointed as a commander of the 8th brigade in South Kurdufan. But his fate was changed forever in late June 1989 when he was chosen to lead an Islamist backed military coup, since then his life would never be the same.
In the 1990s he submitted to the role of merely a token head of state, while his mentor Al Turabi was the real force behind the throne. But in the late 1990s he finally got fed up with the role of a front man. He wanted to lead and he has severed his ties with Al Turabi since then. To his credit, he has yet to develop the typical megalomaniac characteristics of his predecessor Ja'far Numayri, and other regional dictators. He does lack a natural leadership charisma, although he is described by his associates as an affable, humorous and laid-back kind of person, a "true Sudanese". Sometimes he can get very emotional, in his recent visit to the River Nile state a local woman offered him her child, the childless president lost control of his emotions and cried openly.
The dance
According to his press secretary Al Bashir has an unforgiving and short temper. In many public rallies he has frequently managed to embarrass his aids with unscripted outbursts. As a reaction to the ICC in a rally last month in the state of Sinnar-South Eastern Sudan, he said, "I swear to God I will not surrender even a single cat from Sudan". Regarding the court ruling he said, "They can soak it in water and drink it". After each rally Al Bashir performs a customary dance, one of his favourite songs is a traditional Sudanese one whose lyrics go something like this:
"They entered [the battlefield] and the vultures fly [over the enemy's dead bodies]". The words try to describe the horrible death of the enemy and how their bodies are left for the vultures to rip to pieces. The song conjures up a disturbing image, and if you have just been accused of war crimes and dance to such a tune, not many people will be able to distinguish between the image and the reality. There is something in the President's recent behaviour that almost makes you feel sorry for the guy. He looks like someone who has completely lost his composure. No one seems readily at hand to tell him, "Pull yourself together man!".
From his supporters' point of view, if you fast-forward 20 years, the accidental coup leader is now considered a national icon, a symbol of the country's sovereignty. The future and the destiny of the nation were linked with his fate, because he rules "through God's will". Of course, throughout human history and across cultures, rulers, monarchs, Kings and Queens have all claimed they are somehow supernaturally ordained - that they are "chosen by God to rule". Even in the USA a recent survey conducted in 2006 by Baylor University's Institute for Studies of Religion in Texas, found that 19% of Americans think that, "God favours the United States' international politics". The Shah of Iran claimed to be the Shadow of God on Earth - he was eventually deposed by the quintessential men of God. Now Al Bashir has become God's much loved being in Sudan... if you ever wondered what blasphemy means, then such an outlandish claim is the answer.
The options
Now the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for the Sudanese President for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur - many observers have identified three possibilities:
Firstly: that a state of emergency may be declared; the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) and the UN/African Union Hybrid Forces (UNAMID) may be expelled from Sudan; independent civil society organizations may be harassed; and the elections may be postponed while the regime declares a confrontation with the international community.
Secondly: the indictment of the president will weaken his position and will make him a liability to his own party. This may open the way for his removal in a palace coup d'etat.
Thirdly: "Nothing will happen on the Sudanese front", argued the moderate Islamist Al Tayyib Zayn Al Abidin in his article for Al Sahafah newspaper. He asserted that the government is far more pragmatic than people give it credit for. In his opinion the exaggerated claims that the government will react "impulsively" will not happen, anarchy will not engulf Darfur, the CPA implementation will continue. However, what will take place? "A few demonstrations here and there and it will die away in matter of days", says Zayn Al Abidin. "A normal life will return to Khartoum".
Many in Sudan share Zein Al Abdin's view, the government rhetoric is designed to achieve three things: (a) to appear militant in front of their local and regional followers, (b) to blackmail the international community that has invested heavily in the peace process in Sudan and, (c) to prevent the effect of the ICC ruling.
Peace and justice and arguments
On the international level many believe the government rhetoric; Julie Flint and Alex de Waal, warned the international community of the appalling consequences if an arrest warrant were issued against Al Bashir. Following the indictment of Slobodan Milosevic in 1999, Ian Black and Stephen Bates wrote an article in the Guardian on 28 May 1999 predicting that, "War crimes move dims peace hope". They also argued that, "Prospects for a negotiated solution to the Yugoslav conflict were thrown into doubt last night after Slobodan Milosevic was accused of murder". Many human rights activist also observed that, "There seems to be something approaching a universal rule that whenever a politician comes close to being charged with genocide or war crimes, someone somewhere will wring their hands and talk about the impracticality of it all, and the threat that this supposedly poses to 'peace'".
Many among the leaders of the NCP accept that crimes were committed in Darfur. Unfortunately, they have underestimated the seriousness of the international community's and Darfur victims' response to these crimes.
They have made countless diplomatic blunders that ended up in the ICC.
However, they are also aware of the hard realities of Sudanese and regional politics and they cannot afford to scare away the foreign investment that has been attracted to Sudan in the last five years. And they do not want to risk their own stake in the country's wealth. In short, they simply cannot afford anarchy in Sudan, let alone encourage it. And another reality, peace and justice are neither mutually exclusive nor sequential; they are more often inter-linked and simultaneous. Above all, impunity for the guilty is not an option that the victims of Darfur are willing or can afford to accept.
In retrospect
Now the naive Brigadier of 1989 is paying a high price for his role in an adventure written and composed by others. His own former mentor, Al Turabi, now cynically supporting his arrest. In retrospect, his mother was reported to have said in shock, following the news that her own son was the leader of the military coup in 1989, "What is wrong with my son Umar? This country is a river corpse [i.e. can not be resuscitated]". If he ever listened to her, maybe he would have had a different destiny.
But, wait a minute, if you're a gift from God then maybe there was nothing you could have done to change your fate in any case.
Text of commentary by Mohamed Hassan Bashir entitled "Fate, destiny and the last dance of Sudan's President" in English by Paris-based Sudanese newspaper Sudan Tribune website, 05 March 2009:
"Fate, destiny and the last dance of Sudan's President"
Ironical as it may seem, the original candidate to lead 1989's coup d'etat was another Brigadier named Uthman Ahmad Al-Hassan, because he was the leader of the Islamist group in the Sudan Armed Forces at the time. However, he was hastily replaced just a few days before the coup, because Uthman wanted the army to have complete control over political power in the country. Nevertheless the civilian plotters had second thoughts and they selected Umar Hassan al Bashir, considering him an easygoing officer who could be effortlessly controlled and manipulated.
Al Turabi used to say, "Al Bashir is a gift from God to us"
In ancient Aztec tradition the most handsome of the prisoners captured on the battlefield would be made king. Protected by guards and dressed in robes, his every need was satisfied for a whole year. Then the king was lead to the top of the temple pyramid. Here, stripped naked, he was stretched out on an altar, his torso was sliced open and his heart torn out and offered to the gods. This ritual celebrated the return of spring. These Aztec rituals now haunt the unfortunate second choice of the 1989 coup because little did he know that he would now be experiencing the pain that once was felt at the top of the temple pyramid. Following the ICC indictment, his soul has been sliced open for the entire world to see. In the Aztec case the King lost his life, in Sudan's case the leader has lost his soul and dignity.
Destiny
The unknown 45-year-old coup leader delivered his first statement in 1989 to the Sudanese people and said: "the coup was to save the country from rotten political parties. Your armed forces have come to carry out a tremendous revolution for the sake of change after suffering that has included the deterioration of everything to the extent that your lives have become paralysed". The coup was also aimed at preventing the signing of a peace treaty with John Garang's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in July 1989. As a result the country paid a heavy price, a million died and more millions were displaced and uprooted.
Suffering had arrived in Sudan
Umar Hassan Al Bashir was born on January 1st 1944, in Hosh Banga, a small village on the banks of the river Nile located 80kms north of Khartoum. He went to primary school in Shandi, a nearby town, and then moved with his family to Khartoum and enrolled in a secondary school there. His father was a dairy farm worker in Kafori, north of Khartoum.
Hassan al Bashir struggled to feed his large family of eight boys and four girls, but working hard in his early days in Khartoum he eventually succeeded in educating his kids. His father was regarded as a follower of the Khatmiyya sect and a committed supporter of the Democratic Unionist party. However, Umar seems to have chosen a radically different path from his father's and he joined the Muslim Brothers organization at an early age, as did many of his siblings. Young Umar also seems to have been fascinated by the military and after graduating from secondary school he joined the Sudan Military Academy and graduated in 1967.
For a period he lead an uneventful life like most of his follow citizens, and progressed normally in different military posts, including military attache in the United Arab Emirates (1975-79), garrison commander (1979-81) and head of the armoured parachute brigade in Khartoum (1981-87). In 1987 he was appointed as a commander of the 8th brigade in South Kurdufan. But his fate was changed forever in late June 1989 when he was chosen to lead an Islamist backed military coup, since then his life would never be the same.
In the 1990s he submitted to the role of merely a token head of state, while his mentor Al Turabi was the real force behind the throne. But in the late 1990s he finally got fed up with the role of a front man. He wanted to lead and he has severed his ties with Al Turabi since then. To his credit, he has yet to develop the typical megalomaniac characteristics of his predecessor Ja'far Numayri, and other regional dictators. He does lack a natural leadership charisma, although he is described by his associates as an affable, humorous and laid-back kind of person, a "true Sudanese". Sometimes he can get very emotional, in his recent visit to the River Nile state a local woman offered him her child, the childless president lost control of his emotions and cried openly.
The dance
According to his press secretary Al Bashir has an unforgiving and short temper. In many public rallies he has frequently managed to embarrass his aids with unscripted outbursts. As a reaction to the ICC in a rally last month in the state of Sinnar-South Eastern Sudan, he said, "I swear to God I will not surrender even a single cat from Sudan". Regarding the court ruling he said, "They can soak it in water and drink it". After each rally Al Bashir performs a customary dance, one of his favourite songs is a traditional Sudanese one whose lyrics go something like this:
"They entered [the battlefield] and the vultures fly [over the enemy's dead bodies]". The words try to describe the horrible death of the enemy and how their bodies are left for the vultures to rip to pieces. The song conjures up a disturbing image, and if you have just been accused of war crimes and dance to such a tune, not many people will be able to distinguish between the image and the reality. There is something in the President's recent behaviour that almost makes you feel sorry for the guy. He looks like someone who has completely lost his composure. No one seems readily at hand to tell him, "Pull yourself together man!".
From his supporters' point of view, if you fast-forward 20 years, the accidental coup leader is now considered a national icon, a symbol of the country's sovereignty. The future and the destiny of the nation were linked with his fate, because he rules "through God's will". Of course, throughout human history and across cultures, rulers, monarchs, Kings and Queens have all claimed they are somehow supernaturally ordained - that they are "chosen by God to rule". Even in the USA a recent survey conducted in 2006 by Baylor University's Institute for Studies of Religion in Texas, found that 19% of Americans think that, "God favours the United States' international politics". The Shah of Iran claimed to be the Shadow of God on Earth - he was eventually deposed by the quintessential men of God. Now Al Bashir has become God's much loved being in Sudan... if you ever wondered what blasphemy means, then such an outlandish claim is the answer.
The options
Now the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for the Sudanese President for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur - many observers have identified three possibilities:
Firstly: that a state of emergency may be declared; the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) and the UN/African Union Hybrid Forces (UNAMID) may be expelled from Sudan; independent civil society organizations may be harassed; and the elections may be postponed while the regime declares a confrontation with the international community.
Secondly: the indictment of the president will weaken his position and will make him a liability to his own party. This may open the way for his removal in a palace coup d'etat.
Thirdly: "Nothing will happen on the Sudanese front", argued the moderate Islamist Al Tayyib Zayn Al Abidin in his article for Al Sahafah newspaper. He asserted that the government is far more pragmatic than people give it credit for. In his opinion the exaggerated claims that the government will react "impulsively" will not happen, anarchy will not engulf Darfur, the CPA implementation will continue. However, what will take place? "A few demonstrations here and there and it will die away in matter of days", says Zayn Al Abidin. "A normal life will return to Khartoum".
Many in Sudan share Zein Al Abdin's view, the government rhetoric is designed to achieve three things: (a) to appear militant in front of their local and regional followers, (b) to blackmail the international community that has invested heavily in the peace process in Sudan and, (c) to prevent the effect of the ICC ruling.
Peace and justice and arguments
On the international level many believe the government rhetoric; Julie Flint and Alex de Waal, warned the international community of the appalling consequences if an arrest warrant were issued against Al Bashir. Following the indictment of Slobodan Milosevic in 1999, Ian Black and Stephen Bates wrote an article in the Guardian on 28 May 1999 predicting that, "War crimes move dims peace hope". They also argued that, "Prospects for a negotiated solution to the Yugoslav conflict were thrown into doubt last night after Slobodan Milosevic was accused of murder". Many human rights activist also observed that, "There seems to be something approaching a universal rule that whenever a politician comes close to being charged with genocide or war crimes, someone somewhere will wring their hands and talk about the impracticality of it all, and the threat that this supposedly poses to 'peace'".
Many among the leaders of the NCP accept that crimes were committed in Darfur. Unfortunately, they have underestimated the seriousness of the international community's and Darfur victims' response to these crimes.
They have made countless diplomatic blunders that ended up in the ICC.
However, they are also aware of the hard realities of Sudanese and regional politics and they cannot afford to scare away the foreign investment that has been attracted to Sudan in the last five years. And they do not want to risk their own stake in the country's wealth. In short, they simply cannot afford anarchy in Sudan, let alone encourage it. And another reality, peace and justice are neither mutually exclusive nor sequential; they are more often inter-linked and simultaneous. Above all, impunity for the guilty is not an option that the victims of Darfur are willing or can afford to accept.
In retrospect
Now the naive Brigadier of 1989 is paying a high price for his role in an adventure written and composed by others. His own former mentor, Al Turabi, now cynically supporting his arrest. In retrospect, his mother was reported to have said in shock, following the news that her own son was the leader of the military coup in 1989, "What is wrong with my son Umar? This country is a river corpse [i.e. can not be resuscitated]". If he ever listened to her, maybe he would have had a different destiny.
But, wait a minute, if you're a gift from God then maybe there was nothing you could have done to change your fate in any case.
[End]
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13 Comments posted at Sudan Tribune
5 March 2009 04:52, by Buk Dan Buk
That is what always happen to those who are being mislead by others. Now Mr Hassan Al Turabi is just chilling in his house watching the man he put into all this crises going through what he himself planned. Now I think Omar will defenitately learn from his mistake, he let himself being mislead by a curn man. Those protestors must understand they reasons why the warrant was issue. The must understand why the human right care about the Sudanese citizen, and must also know this warrant was not issue on politcal issues we always have among one another. This warrant was issue base on the facts we all know.
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5 March 2009 07:12, by Biden Osire
I use to say time will tell its course now reality has come why fear but let justice take its course, has predicted by many before and no one should interfer unless you are one of those who benefited from him too.
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5 March 2009 07:38, by Gatwech
Oh, man!
The D-Day has come for Al-Bashir. The decision has already been made. There is nothing the Sudanese can do than to cooperate with the court. There is no room for deferral of the case by the UN Security Council since US, France and UK are ready to vote such a move. Arab and African countries who sympathize with Bashir will just express their disappointment helplessly.
Well, well, well, Bashir from this day of issuance of arrest warrant is a wanted criminal by legal terms. It is like sending ordering a police to arrest a criminal. A criminal may dodge the police for sometime until he or she is apprehended. This is the situation Bashir finds himself in for the rest of his life if he is not quickly arrested or does not want to voluntarily handover himself to the ICC.
But his chances to be arrested are very high given the number of countries that are signatories to the Roman Statute. I was listening to the BBC this morning and the prosecutor, Ocampo was asked over his interview how the Court would arrest Bashir when many African and Arab countries are reluctant to arrest him. He plainly said that as long as Bashir travels outside of Sudan, his plane could be intercepted in international air space and diverted before it could land to where he wants to travel to. This is very serious!
Other implications will include cutting off Bashir from political or diplomatic dealings by many countries. For example, European Union countries automatically do not deal politically and diplomatically with a criminal suspect. Bashir is from now a wanted criminal and no body will want to deal with a police wanted criminal. Bashir will be like a fugitive and always on the run from those who want to arrest him. What a situation!
But the decision will not go without heavy price to be paid by the people of Sudan. The GoNU (Government of National Unity) of which Salva Kiir is the First Vice President has already decided to expell about ten major humanitarian agencies out of the country within 24 hours. These are the agencies helping significantly in providing medical and food supplies and services to the marginalized people in Sudan including the South and war affected IDPs such as in Darfur. This harsh decision will leave hundreds of thousands if not millions vulnerable to hunger and diseases.
Other implications are yet to surface. JEM rebels may start to launch attacks on the main government towns. Attempts of coup de tat against Bashir may occur in Khartoum. Bashir may sanction the South for supporting cooperation with ICC or international community, and may indefinately delay the release of South Sudan’s share of oil, or may encourage war in the South.
I have learned from a reliable source that Salva Kiir left Juba for Khartoum on Wednesday after the issuance of arrest warrnat of "Brother Al-Bashir" as he put it in the media. Well, we all know that Salva Kiir was appointed by Al-Bashir as Chairman of ICC crisis committee without consulting his party senior members. A thing which people say disappointed his party’s colleagues who did not want their chairman to be used in this kind of tricky matter. He went to Khartoum to meet Al-Bashir on what to do next in reaction to the ICC. May be the expelsion of humanitarian agencies is one solution to their meeting. Shame! But I at least appreciate is travel to Khartoum for the first time this year. I hope he will discuss the handover of Gen. Tang Ginye with Bashir and not concentrate on worshipping Bashir and condemning his arrest. He should stay in Khartoum for at least one week to do his work in the office of the First Vice President to defuse the growing tensions in the minds of his masters. But let no body forget that there is nothing one can do at this point to rescue the President. He is already a wanted criminal by law. He can be arrested any time and no matter how long it takes. He can be on the run for the rest of his life with sleepless nights. But he will be a useless President because he will not carry out his duty well if he confined to Sudan.
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5 March 2009 10:04, by David Deng Makuei Nhial
Hi Gatwec!
Your article of to day is fair in nature , but if you were Salva ,leave alone your hatracy against him what would you do in such crisis? His going to Khartoum doesn’t pertain any begging but should be there as a Vice President of the Republic, don’t take things half way ues a holistic part of your brain to interperate your ideas before releasing its. What is wrong by this time that making you changed your support to Criminal Bashir as you call him and along you have saying who will capture him.
The question of Tang Ginye is not the big issue that could take Salva to Khartoum, is just an easy case, where shall he escape in the Sudan here yet he do not know Arabic leave alone other languages.
- - -
5 March 2009 21:52, by Peter Aarai
Mr Gatwech, D Day didnt come yet since your boyfriend omar bashir still in Sudan, you always against the ICC move that will affected CPA. bashir need be judged by Sudanese like his uncle Saddam Hussein. bashir have be hang in front Sudanese people in Sudan without any forgiveness.
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5 March 2009 12:55, by Agutran
I assume Sudan tribune now is under intimidation not to published people’s comments that support the ICC.
- - -
5 March 2009 13:50, by Kuanlualthoun
Sudan El-Bashier is better 100x than those warlords before him!! unless he signed the CPA and lonnging for peace with Darfuur people! taking out of the equation will only make things worse! beware, Western are targeting him because he is not doing oil business with them!!
- - -
5 March 2009 15:47, by 13012 Shepherd
I really enjoy the way these Wolves are betraying themselves.
Turabi appointed him as the leader of the successful coup de tat 20 years ago And the same Turabi has now poured 1000 0C hot water at him while resting at his conquered palace sending him chanting around in the city like a mad woman
That is interesting let them fight it over by themselves. Kiir Mayardit Keeps your hand off
- - -
6 March 2009 01:56, by Mohammad100
Psychologist Dr. Sigman Fraud discussed a lot about rituals, dances, and nearly all human interaction giving each gesture’s interpretation psychoanalytically. I could not guess better than my former Sudanese psychology professors such as Prof. Malik Badri and the rest. If I go back to my classes in the University of Khartoum, I will be more than interested to ask one of those my former Psychology professors the plain interpretations of Omar Bashir’s current public dances in the face of his arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court. Is it a sadistic dance, is it masochistic dance, an arrogant dance, or a dance out of desperation?
The arrest warrant is real, the crimes he committed are real: many thousands of lives do practically testify. Even if he may presume that he is innocent, because neither Hitler, nor Joseph Starlin accepted they committed a crimes against humanity, but this time I do not know how Omar Bashir may escape his fate. Asalaam Aleikum, Mohammad.
- - -
6 March 2009 06:38, by buokdeng
They call it ST. Vitus’s dance. Of course this is a specific neuropathology, but I am sure you talked about it in the class with your professor. He may not be having the condition that causes this dance, but you never know what his state of mind is at the present time. That is what I was reminded of when I saw him dance in a much uncoordinated way on the stage. I am sure something is going on in his head. So don’t be surprised if you see him acting the way he appeared on the stage. He is beginning to actually see the reality. Not too long ago Charles Taylor and Milosevic did not believe what they later on experienced---Jail time
- - -
6 March 2009 01:38, by SudanSudan
Wow! I have applaused you brother Mohamed for your writing. You are a good Bashir and God bless you. Have you ever seen what a scared lion do when it’s about to be kill by hunters and die??? The dying lion become careless, obnoxious, and radical while began to cry like baby on fire. As a result, it aimed at the most BEAUTIFUL and POWERFUL WARRIOR among the crowds, whom he knocked down to the ground and bite him on the throat and NEVER let go again. Eventually the lion get killed and people moan for the most beautiful and powerful warrior whom the lion has killed. Omar Bashir is now on the path of a dying lion and you better watch CHA out for him. I advice the important people in Sudan who make no trouble watch out for their lives. The GOSS too MUST look out after their leaders, in case they lion slaughter them at the last minute and we cry again like in 1950s to 70s and in 2005.
- - -
6 March 2009 10:49, by postmortem
Dear Mohammed Hassan Bashir, Thank you Mohammed for your objectivity. This is what all Sudanese want in analysing issues from the factual focal point. Sudan can move on to prosperity with this kind of thinking. God bless you.
- - -
6 March 2009 12:38, by Gaaniko John
Brave man Mr. Mohamed Hassan Bashir. Thank you a lot for taking us to the background of The indicted Mr. ICC’s future client. I estimate those who trusted that man, committed a serious mistake that they are to confess as from now. Bashir can’t be considered as a gift from God to us as alleged by Mr. Turabi. Maybe he wanted to praise him when they were in good terms.
- - -
SSDF calls for UNSC to postpone ICC proceedings against Sudan president
News from Sudan Radio Service 8 March 2009 (Khartoum):
5 March 2009 04:52, by Buk Dan Buk
That is what always happen to those who are being mislead by others. Now Mr Hassan Al Turabi is just chilling in his house watching the man he put into all this crises going through what he himself planned. Now I think Omar will defenitately learn from his mistake, he let himself being mislead by a curn man. Those protestors must understand they reasons why the warrant was issue. The must understand why the human right care about the Sudanese citizen, and must also know this warrant was not issue on politcal issues we always have among one another. This warrant was issue base on the facts we all know.
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5 March 2009 07:12, by Biden Osire
I use to say time will tell its course now reality has come why fear but let justice take its course, has predicted by many before and no one should interfer unless you are one of those who benefited from him too.
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5 March 2009 07:38, by Gatwech
Oh, man!
The D-Day has come for Al-Bashir. The decision has already been made. There is nothing the Sudanese can do than to cooperate with the court. There is no room for deferral of the case by the UN Security Council since US, France and UK are ready to vote such a move. Arab and African countries who sympathize with Bashir will just express their disappointment helplessly.
Well, well, well, Bashir from this day of issuance of arrest warrant is a wanted criminal by legal terms. It is like sending ordering a police to arrest a criminal. A criminal may dodge the police for sometime until he or she is apprehended. This is the situation Bashir finds himself in for the rest of his life if he is not quickly arrested or does not want to voluntarily handover himself to the ICC.
But his chances to be arrested are very high given the number of countries that are signatories to the Roman Statute. I was listening to the BBC this morning and the prosecutor, Ocampo was asked over his interview how the Court would arrest Bashir when many African and Arab countries are reluctant to arrest him. He plainly said that as long as Bashir travels outside of Sudan, his plane could be intercepted in international air space and diverted before it could land to where he wants to travel to. This is very serious!
Other implications will include cutting off Bashir from political or diplomatic dealings by many countries. For example, European Union countries automatically do not deal politically and diplomatically with a criminal suspect. Bashir is from now a wanted criminal and no body will want to deal with a police wanted criminal. Bashir will be like a fugitive and always on the run from those who want to arrest him. What a situation!
But the decision will not go without heavy price to be paid by the people of Sudan. The GoNU (Government of National Unity) of which Salva Kiir is the First Vice President has already decided to expell about ten major humanitarian agencies out of the country within 24 hours. These are the agencies helping significantly in providing medical and food supplies and services to the marginalized people in Sudan including the South and war affected IDPs such as in Darfur. This harsh decision will leave hundreds of thousands if not millions vulnerable to hunger and diseases.
Other implications are yet to surface. JEM rebels may start to launch attacks on the main government towns. Attempts of coup de tat against Bashir may occur in Khartoum. Bashir may sanction the South for supporting cooperation with ICC or international community, and may indefinately delay the release of South Sudan’s share of oil, or may encourage war in the South.
I have learned from a reliable source that Salva Kiir left Juba for Khartoum on Wednesday after the issuance of arrest warrnat of "Brother Al-Bashir" as he put it in the media. Well, we all know that Salva Kiir was appointed by Al-Bashir as Chairman of ICC crisis committee without consulting his party senior members. A thing which people say disappointed his party’s colleagues who did not want their chairman to be used in this kind of tricky matter. He went to Khartoum to meet Al-Bashir on what to do next in reaction to the ICC. May be the expelsion of humanitarian agencies is one solution to their meeting. Shame! But I at least appreciate is travel to Khartoum for the first time this year. I hope he will discuss the handover of Gen. Tang Ginye with Bashir and not concentrate on worshipping Bashir and condemning his arrest. He should stay in Khartoum for at least one week to do his work in the office of the First Vice President to defuse the growing tensions in the minds of his masters. But let no body forget that there is nothing one can do at this point to rescue the President. He is already a wanted criminal by law. He can be arrested any time and no matter how long it takes. He can be on the run for the rest of his life with sleepless nights. But he will be a useless President because he will not carry out his duty well if he confined to Sudan.
- - -
5 March 2009 10:04, by David Deng Makuei Nhial
Hi Gatwec!
Your article of to day is fair in nature , but if you were Salva ,leave alone your hatracy against him what would you do in such crisis? His going to Khartoum doesn’t pertain any begging but should be there as a Vice President of the Republic, don’t take things half way ues a holistic part of your brain to interperate your ideas before releasing its. What is wrong by this time that making you changed your support to Criminal Bashir as you call him and along you have saying who will capture him.
The question of Tang Ginye is not the big issue that could take Salva to Khartoum, is just an easy case, where shall he escape in the Sudan here yet he do not know Arabic leave alone other languages.
- - -
5 March 2009 21:52, by Peter Aarai
Mr Gatwech, D Day didnt come yet since your boyfriend omar bashir still in Sudan, you always against the ICC move that will affected CPA. bashir need be judged by Sudanese like his uncle Saddam Hussein. bashir have be hang in front Sudanese people in Sudan without any forgiveness.
- - -
5 March 2009 12:55, by Agutran
I assume Sudan tribune now is under intimidation not to published people’s comments that support the ICC.
- - -
5 March 2009 13:50, by Kuanlualthoun
Sudan El-Bashier is better 100x than those warlords before him!! unless he signed the CPA and lonnging for peace with Darfuur people! taking out of the equation will only make things worse! beware, Western are targeting him because he is not doing oil business with them!!
- - -
5 March 2009 15:47, by 13012 Shepherd
I really enjoy the way these Wolves are betraying themselves.
Turabi appointed him as the leader of the successful coup de tat 20 years ago And the same Turabi has now poured 1000 0C hot water at him while resting at his conquered palace sending him chanting around in the city like a mad woman
That is interesting let them fight it over by themselves. Kiir Mayardit Keeps your hand off
- - -
6 March 2009 01:56, by Mohammad100
Psychologist Dr. Sigman Fraud discussed a lot about rituals, dances, and nearly all human interaction giving each gesture’s interpretation psychoanalytically. I could not guess better than my former Sudanese psychology professors such as Prof. Malik Badri and the rest. If I go back to my classes in the University of Khartoum, I will be more than interested to ask one of those my former Psychology professors the plain interpretations of Omar Bashir’s current public dances in the face of his arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court. Is it a sadistic dance, is it masochistic dance, an arrogant dance, or a dance out of desperation?
The arrest warrant is real, the crimes he committed are real: many thousands of lives do practically testify. Even if he may presume that he is innocent, because neither Hitler, nor Joseph Starlin accepted they committed a crimes against humanity, but this time I do not know how Omar Bashir may escape his fate. Asalaam Aleikum, Mohammad.
- - -
6 March 2009 06:38, by buokdeng
They call it ST. Vitus’s dance. Of course this is a specific neuropathology, but I am sure you talked about it in the class with your professor. He may not be having the condition that causes this dance, but you never know what his state of mind is at the present time. That is what I was reminded of when I saw him dance in a much uncoordinated way on the stage. I am sure something is going on in his head. So don’t be surprised if you see him acting the way he appeared on the stage. He is beginning to actually see the reality. Not too long ago Charles Taylor and Milosevic did not believe what they later on experienced---Jail time
- - -
6 March 2009 01:38, by SudanSudan
Wow! I have applaused you brother Mohamed for your writing. You are a good Bashir and God bless you. Have you ever seen what a scared lion do when it’s about to be kill by hunters and die??? The dying lion become careless, obnoxious, and radical while began to cry like baby on fire. As a result, it aimed at the most BEAUTIFUL and POWERFUL WARRIOR among the crowds, whom he knocked down to the ground and bite him on the throat and NEVER let go again. Eventually the lion get killed and people moan for the most beautiful and powerful warrior whom the lion has killed. Omar Bashir is now on the path of a dying lion and you better watch CHA out for him. I advice the important people in Sudan who make no trouble watch out for their lives. The GOSS too MUST look out after their leaders, in case they lion slaughter them at the last minute and we cry again like in 1950s to 70s and in 2005.
- - -
6 March 2009 10:49, by postmortem
Dear Mohammed Hassan Bashir, Thank you Mohammed for your objectivity. This is what all Sudanese want in analysing issues from the factual focal point. Sudan can move on to prosperity with this kind of thinking. God bless you.
- - -
6 March 2009 12:38, by Gaaniko John
Brave man Mr. Mohamed Hassan Bashir. Thank you a lot for taking us to the background of The indicted Mr. ICC’s future client. I estimate those who trusted that man, committed a serious mistake that they are to confess as from now. Bashir can’t be considered as a gift from God to us as alleged by Mr. Turabi. Maybe he wanted to praise him when they were in good terms.
- - -
SSDF calls for UNSC to postpone ICC proceedings against Sudan president
News from Sudan Radio Service 8 March 2009 (Khartoum):
The South Sudan Democratic Forum Party is calling on the United Nations’ Security Council to postpone the implementation of the arrest warrant against President Omar Al-Bashir in order to facilitate the peace process in Darfur.
In an interview with Sudan Radio Service in Khartoum on Saturday, the SSDF Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Stanslaus Wani Jada, said that though it is important to pressure GONU and the anti-government factions in Darfur in order to reach a comprehensive settlement to the Darfur problem, indicting the president will not solve the Darfur conflict.
[Stanslaus Wani Jada]: “The Security Council needs to put pressure to al-Bashir. Yes; they need to put pressure on the government at the moment so that the government takes more steps towards solving the problem of Darfur. The international community also needs to put pressure on the warring factions, particularly the JEM and Abdul-wahid’s SLA. They need to realize that war doesn’t solve the problem. Rather than trying to take drastic measures like trying to indict the president, I don’t see that indictment will solve the problem of Darfur at all. So, the Security Council should after issuing the warrant of arrest now at least take the step of postponing the implementation of the arrest so that it gives an opportunity for the president of the Sudan to solve the problem of Darfur.”
When asked to comment on the expulsion of sixteen humanitarian organizations by GONU, Dr Wani Jada urged the NGO’s to carry out their mandate without being involved in the country’s internal affairs.
[Stanslaus Wani Jada]: “One also has to respect the laws of the country because when a country is in a situation like in Sudan, you need to be very clear in respecting what the country is saying. You don’t need to be a double agent. So, humanitarian organizations need to be actually humanitarian. They need to concentrate on their humanitarian issues rather than mixing it with political issues.”
He said the absence of these international humanitarian NGOs will cause suffering to the people in Darfur and will also create unemployment. He said the NGO’s employed large numbers of Sudanese nationals.
Sudan's Darfur crisis is NGOs cash cow
UN officials reckon as much as a third of some aid agencies' budgets are raised from donations related to Darfur. The crisis is supporting countless jobs in headquarters around the world and many operations in other less glamorous hot spots. Darfur is their cash cow.
Read full story If You Bend Over Far Enough... by Times correspondent Rob Crilly at From The Frontline via Khartoum, Sudan March 8, 2009.
Read full story If You Bend Over Far Enough... by Times correspondent Rob Crilly at From The Frontline via Khartoum, Sudan March 8, 2009.
ICC's Ocampo got it wrong: 5,000 people are not dying a month - there is no ‘ongoing genocide’ in Darfur, Sudan
The following excerpt is from Julie Flint's comment posted in the comments section of her analysis "Justice and Hunger" March 6, 2009 at Alex de Waal's blog Making Sense of Darfur:
- - -
From Ahmed Hassan:
March 7, 2009
Dear Julie Flint,
Thank you very much for your analysis. However, I believe we should not allow ourselves to be dragged into a game staged by the government of Sudan and which the regime knows exactly how to play. El-Bashir is playing on the reactionary “pride” of the international community and of those affected humanitarian agencies, to buy a compromise. Albeit the fact that those INGOs represent the “big players”, let us not to exaggerate facts regarding their contribution, in favor of the government game, by claiming that 60% of all humanitarian aid in Darfur will disappear in a matter of days if these INGO leave Sudan.
Let us just not forget that there are still more than 100 INGO operating in Darfur, all of them are American and European. As long as the cry is for the victims in Darfur, who are in need for help, I don’t see why donors can not re-allocate funds to those operational NGOs or to national partner NGOs?
I think the only obstacle that I can see is the “hurt pride’ of the kicked out INGOs as well as of the International donor community, and I believe this should be considered as small price for what the government is quoting as Moreno statements that he gathered his information mainly from INGOs. Technically, I am sure someone will respond with comments about the capacity of the other INGOs and the National NGOs to handle the humanitarian operations in Sudan.
Again, I think the International donor community should prove their rhetoric about partnership and should invest in building the capacity of the national NGOs as part and parcel of the calls for empowering the civil society and bringing peace and democracy.
As an eye witness and as humanitarian worker with recent experience in Darfur, I don’t buy any argument that the level of the humanitarian emergency can not allow for a lengthy process of capacity building, there are enough INGO and local NGOs with adequate capacity to fill the gap caused by the expelling of the 13 INGOs and at the same time undergo a systematic process of capacity building. This could be quite an option to deprive the regime in Sudan from what it plan to use as a leverage to gain a compromise.
To a some extend also, I think we should start looking at things differently, that we are now dealing with two different but not separate issues; the arrest of Bashir, and the Darfur or Sudan Peace.
I like Alex’s statement that “The ICC pretends to be outside politics, representing principles on which no compromise is possible. The key word is ‘pretense’, to paraphrase David Kennedy: it is a nice fiction for the human rights community to believe that it is ’speaking truth to power’ and not actually exercising power. The ICC arrest warrant is a real decision with real consequences in terms of lives saved and lost and the political life of a nation”. Again, even under this pretence, I don’t see how the ICC can step back from this situation.
Bashir arrest process and trial should go on without being questioned or doubted. The international community, on the other hand, should start working on issue number two, which is the primary issue, of peace in Sudan, and which I strongly believe that it could be more possible and more attainable without Bashir in the picture.
The International community on the other hand, should not be deceived with the staged demonstrations in support of Bashir, or with the silence of the rest of the political forces in Sudan. The regime is keeping events for the time being by the sheer use of force and resources, however, once the International community decides on the right mode of actions, it will be surprising the support that would come from all the political forces in Sudan, now intimated and subdued by the ruling party.
- - -
From Abdikarim Ali:
March 7, 2009
Ocampu’s excuse was that it couldn’t get any worse for the Darfurians; And now we know it really could and it is already in process. Now the UN and AU are on the ground in Darfur; what can they do?
- - -
From Ibrahim Adam:
March 7, 2009
To Bob Williamson: And America takes it on itself to ’solve’ other countries’ problems it disagrees with by tearing-up, and using shock-and-awe bombing tactics (with huge civilian casualties and other likely war-crimes) by murdering other people living in said-country, and regulates it (the assault) with a sophisticated media and other communications tools apparatus. Touche…..Or it lets other allies do it and provides them with diplomatic cover.
Put simply, there’s no moral high ground for the US to occupy here: don’t search for it.
Agree with Ahmed Hassan’s incisive reality of the humanitarian situation, staffing and capacity on the ground; also agree with Julie’s sharp analysis completely and Alex’s posting on the day of the ICC announcement: “Yes, Alex, you’re right, it was a sad day for Sudan….”
I Adam
Country-Risk Consultant,
El Fasher, North Darfur, Sudan
- - -
From Sharon Silber:
March 7, 2009
What a terrible disaster. It really seemed that the difference between the hundreds of thousands killed in Darfur and the millions killed in South Sudan was due, not just to the difference of duration in years of the conflicts, but due to the lack of access of humanitarian groups in South Sudan since so many died not from the killing itself but from hunger, thirst and lack of medical care. I am very fearful of what this means for Darfur. What are you recommending now? What pressure can be harnessed? Are there specific economic sanctions that could be implemented?
- - -
From Julie Flint:
March 7, 2009
Dear Ahmad Hassan,
You are absolutely right in that what we need to be doing now is trying to limit the damage done by the expulsion of the aid agencies. I appreciate that those expelled are a minority, but they represent more than half of the overall capacity of the Darfur relief operation. The assistant secretary general for humanitarian affairs has said the suspension of their work means that ‘1.5 million have already lost access to health care, and over one million could soon lose access to potable water. The loss of MSF alone will leave more than 200,000 patients in rural areas without essential medical care. The departure of Oxfam Great Britain, which is the largest NGO providing water, sanitation, and hygiene services, is likely to leave 600,000 people in a precarious situation.’ She warned that nearly 1.1 million people may be without food at the next distribution time.
OCHA said (privately) yesterday that Kalma and Kass would run out of water ‘by tomorrow’ - i.e. today.
The impact of the arrest warrant is going to have a massive impact, and soon. And not only in Darfur. In the east, the Three Areas and perhaps even Chad, if the displaced are forced to leave the camps - either through hunger, or thirst, or actions of the government or its militias, or possibly even the rebel movements. Can UNAMID protect them?
I’m not an aid person, and pretend to no expertise there whatsoever, but I understand that funds cannot be reallocated quickly, nor new personnel recruited overnight. Even if they could be, not every INGO has the operational capacity of those that have been expelled. National NGOs, however courageous and committed, simply don’t have the capacity or the expertise for such a large and complex operation, that brought in the best cadres from all over the world. The transfer of capacity is difficult because assets have been confiscated. Management capacity can’t be transferred because staff have been ordered to leave the country.
There seems to be an emerging consensus that it is more useful, in the short term, for the expelled NGOs to put their energy into helping the remaining NGOs to scale up their activities to prevent loss of life rather than putting all their energies into lobbying for the Sudan government to reverse its decision. And I would imagine a priority has to be mapping what remains, and where, and determining how the need that has been created can be best and quickest addressed.
John Smith says ‘the Prosecutor is not a diplomat and should not be expected to act as such.’ Fair enough; he is only doing what the UNSC asked him to do. But he is required, by the Rome Statue, to take the interests of the victims of the account. And running out of water, food and health care, in the middle of a meningitis epidemic, is not in their interests. This government has been in power for 20 years - expect Bashir to organise one hell of a party on June 30 this year - and we have no excuse for not knowing how it works. It is constantly looking for pretexts to erect obstacles in front of humanitarians. This is a tragedy foreseen, and avoidable. I’m not against accountability at the highest level for the crimes committed in Darfur. Far from it. But with no-one to protect the victims, this is not the time.
- - -
From Julie Flint:
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Dear Sharon,
Your diagnosis of the difference between the South and Darfur is spot on. Throughout twenty years of war, most Southern Sudanese never saw any relief. Most war-displaced Darfurians have received a fair amount.
It’s so much easier to know what not to do than what to do at this point, when we have so dramatically limited our options. Don’t impose a no-fly zone, for starters, since most aid goes - or more correctly now, went - by air and must again. Don’t bomb. Nick Kristof, who a few days ago told us that our fears that aid agencies would be expelled were ‘overblown’, now wants us to bomb the Sudan air force. And the same government that has cut the lifeline of more than a million Darfurians without batting an eyelid will take that sitting down? Pull the other one. De-escalate. Don’t escalate. Get off the high moral ground into the dust and mud where displaced Darfurians live. Put yourself in the place of a mother who has been under canvas for five years, whose child has meningitis, malaria or diarrhea, and not a doctor or nurse in sight now. Prioritize the life of that child. There are hundreds of thousands of them, most already beginning to feel the effects of Bashir’s arrest warrant.
The immediate challenge is to respond to the gaping holes in service provision - NGOs estimate that 70% of humanitarian service delivery to 4.7 million people in Darfur will be affected - and to try somehow to utilize (and if necessary protect) the 2,570 national staff rendered jobless. The 200 international staff have until 9 March to leave Sudan. Sudanese law states that NGOs should have 30 days to challenge the revocation of registration, but the government has dismissed this, citing ‘national emergency’ and ’state security’. I see no moderates on the horizon, no ripe prospects for peace.
Somehow international organizations have to find a way to dialogue with the government - criminalized in its entirety by the ICC Prosecutor - at a time when it appears that those who want a degree at least of cooperation have been silenced or pushed aside. In the immediate term, this may have to be by proxy - through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the African Union. The CPA cannot be allowed to collapse. HAC Commissioner Dr. Hassabo Mohamed Abdul Rahman has said more NGOs are under investigation for collaboration with the ICC and will be expelled if a connection is found. Ever since Moreno Ocampo applied for the arrest warrant, activists in the US especially have been hailing this as a breakthrough for peace and a means of leverage on the government. I don’t get this. I see a dwindling of peace hopes and vastly diminished leverage.
Security in the camps must be a major concern. The ICC’s outreach was poor, and the arrest warrant against Bashir seemed to many like a magic bullet. (Even if he were, somehow, arrested, would the regime veer into democracy? Almost certainly not.) There is a need for urgent contacts with the rebel leaders who have influence in the camps - especially Abdel Wahid - to calm rather than inflame the situation and do what they can to stabilize it. JEM must be warned not to seize this moment to make another military push.
Economic sanctions? Would they not affect ordinary Sudanese? What I am hearing indicates that the main concern ordinary Sudanese have about the Bashir warrant is the effect it will have on their economy. Make things tougher on that front and risk increased support for Bashir, I think.
Finally, start telling it like it is. (In for a penny in for a pound.) Distortion of facts, purple prose and exaggerated rhetoric, with a liberal sprinkling of Sudanophobia, have all conspired to create the current dead end - Bashir dances while Darfurians risk starving again, en masse. Five thousand people are not dying a month. There is no ‘ongoing genocide’. (The ICC judges said that, effectively telling Moreno Ocampo he got it wrong.) Not all aerial bombardment by the government is ‘genocidal’ and unprovoked. Let’s get it in perspective, stop talking about ‘saving’ Darfur and work out how best we can help them Darfurians to save themselves - especially now that our own leverage is so dramatically reduced.
Then we can worry about putting Sudan’s leaders in handcuffs. They’ll still be there in a few years’ time.
- - -
Grenade victim
Photo: After a grenade exploded, Bakit Musa, 8, lost his hands, one eye and the skin on half of his face. (Nicholas D. Kristof/The New York Times March 4, 2009)
From Kristof's blog at nytimes.com March 7, 2009
Your comments on my Darfur column
By NICHOLAS KRISTOF
Postscript from Sudan Watch: Here is a copy of a noteworthy comment posted to Kristof's commentary copied here above. There are more from the 50+ comments posted that I would have liked to include here (especially one re British involvement over 100 years) but I can't re-read them all, must close and sleep now. Maybe more, tomorrow. Bye for now.
Five thousand people are not dying a month. There is no ‘ongoing genocide’. (The ICC judges said that, effectively telling Moreno Ocampo he got it wrong.) Not all aerial bombardment by the government is ‘genocidal’ and unprovoked. Let’s get it in perspective, stop talking about ‘saving’ Darfur and work out how best we can help them Darfurians to save themselves - especially now that our own leverage is so dramatically reduced.Here is a copy of some responses to "Justice and Hunger". I have used red to highlight some of the text and added links within Julie's last comment, for future reference.
- - -
From Ahmed Hassan:
March 7, 2009
Dear Julie Flint,
Thank you very much for your analysis. However, I believe we should not allow ourselves to be dragged into a game staged by the government of Sudan and which the regime knows exactly how to play. El-Bashir is playing on the reactionary “pride” of the international community and of those affected humanitarian agencies, to buy a compromise. Albeit the fact that those INGOs represent the “big players”, let us not to exaggerate facts regarding their contribution, in favor of the government game, by claiming that 60% of all humanitarian aid in Darfur will disappear in a matter of days if these INGO leave Sudan.
Let us just not forget that there are still more than 100 INGO operating in Darfur, all of them are American and European. As long as the cry is for the victims in Darfur, who are in need for help, I don’t see why donors can not re-allocate funds to those operational NGOs or to national partner NGOs?
I think the only obstacle that I can see is the “hurt pride’ of the kicked out INGOs as well as of the International donor community, and I believe this should be considered as small price for what the government is quoting as Moreno statements that he gathered his information mainly from INGOs. Technically, I am sure someone will respond with comments about the capacity of the other INGOs and the National NGOs to handle the humanitarian operations in Sudan.
Again, I think the International donor community should prove their rhetoric about partnership and should invest in building the capacity of the national NGOs as part and parcel of the calls for empowering the civil society and bringing peace and democracy.
As an eye witness and as humanitarian worker with recent experience in Darfur, I don’t buy any argument that the level of the humanitarian emergency can not allow for a lengthy process of capacity building, there are enough INGO and local NGOs with adequate capacity to fill the gap caused by the expelling of the 13 INGOs and at the same time undergo a systematic process of capacity building. This could be quite an option to deprive the regime in Sudan from what it plan to use as a leverage to gain a compromise.
To a some extend also, I think we should start looking at things differently, that we are now dealing with two different but not separate issues; the arrest of Bashir, and the Darfur or Sudan Peace.
I like Alex’s statement that “The ICC pretends to be outside politics, representing principles on which no compromise is possible. The key word is ‘pretense’, to paraphrase David Kennedy: it is a nice fiction for the human rights community to believe that it is ’speaking truth to power’ and not actually exercising power. The ICC arrest warrant is a real decision with real consequences in terms of lives saved and lost and the political life of a nation”. Again, even under this pretence, I don’t see how the ICC can step back from this situation.
Bashir arrest process and trial should go on without being questioned or doubted. The international community, on the other hand, should start working on issue number two, which is the primary issue, of peace in Sudan, and which I strongly believe that it could be more possible and more attainable without Bashir in the picture.
The International community on the other hand, should not be deceived with the staged demonstrations in support of Bashir, or with the silence of the rest of the political forces in Sudan. The regime is keeping events for the time being by the sheer use of force and resources, however, once the International community decides on the right mode of actions, it will be surprising the support that would come from all the political forces in Sudan, now intimated and subdued by the ruling party.
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From Abdikarim Ali:
March 7, 2009
Ocampu’s excuse was that it couldn’t get any worse for the Darfurians; And now we know it really could and it is already in process. Now the UN and AU are on the ground in Darfur; what can they do?
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From Ibrahim Adam:
March 7, 2009
To Bob Williamson: And America takes it on itself to ’solve’ other countries’ problems it disagrees with by tearing-up, and using shock-and-awe bombing tactics (with huge civilian casualties and other likely war-crimes) by murdering other people living in said-country, and regulates it (the assault) with a sophisticated media and other communications tools apparatus. Touche…..Or it lets other allies do it and provides them with diplomatic cover.
Put simply, there’s no moral high ground for the US to occupy here: don’t search for it.
Agree with Ahmed Hassan’s incisive reality of the humanitarian situation, staffing and capacity on the ground; also agree with Julie’s sharp analysis completely and Alex’s posting on the day of the ICC announcement: “Yes, Alex, you’re right, it was a sad day for Sudan….”
I Adam
Country-Risk Consultant,
El Fasher, North Darfur, Sudan
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From Sharon Silber:
March 7, 2009
What a terrible disaster. It really seemed that the difference between the hundreds of thousands killed in Darfur and the millions killed in South Sudan was due, not just to the difference of duration in years of the conflicts, but due to the lack of access of humanitarian groups in South Sudan since so many died not from the killing itself but from hunger, thirst and lack of medical care. I am very fearful of what this means for Darfur. What are you recommending now? What pressure can be harnessed? Are there specific economic sanctions that could be implemented?
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From Julie Flint:
March 7, 2009
Dear Ahmad Hassan,
You are absolutely right in that what we need to be doing now is trying to limit the damage done by the expulsion of the aid agencies. I appreciate that those expelled are a minority, but they represent more than half of the overall capacity of the Darfur relief operation. The assistant secretary general for humanitarian affairs has said the suspension of their work means that ‘1.5 million have already lost access to health care, and over one million could soon lose access to potable water. The loss of MSF alone will leave more than 200,000 patients in rural areas without essential medical care. The departure of Oxfam Great Britain, which is the largest NGO providing water, sanitation, and hygiene services, is likely to leave 600,000 people in a precarious situation.’ She warned that nearly 1.1 million people may be without food at the next distribution time.
OCHA said (privately) yesterday that Kalma and Kass would run out of water ‘by tomorrow’ - i.e. today.
The impact of the arrest warrant is going to have a massive impact, and soon. And not only in Darfur. In the east, the Three Areas and perhaps even Chad, if the displaced are forced to leave the camps - either through hunger, or thirst, or actions of the government or its militias, or possibly even the rebel movements. Can UNAMID protect them?
I’m not an aid person, and pretend to no expertise there whatsoever, but I understand that funds cannot be reallocated quickly, nor new personnel recruited overnight. Even if they could be, not every INGO has the operational capacity of those that have been expelled. National NGOs, however courageous and committed, simply don’t have the capacity or the expertise for such a large and complex operation, that brought in the best cadres from all over the world. The transfer of capacity is difficult because assets have been confiscated. Management capacity can’t be transferred because staff have been ordered to leave the country.
There seems to be an emerging consensus that it is more useful, in the short term, for the expelled NGOs to put their energy into helping the remaining NGOs to scale up their activities to prevent loss of life rather than putting all their energies into lobbying for the Sudan government to reverse its decision. And I would imagine a priority has to be mapping what remains, and where, and determining how the need that has been created can be best and quickest addressed.
John Smith says ‘the Prosecutor is not a diplomat and should not be expected to act as such.’ Fair enough; he is only doing what the UNSC asked him to do. But he is required, by the Rome Statue, to take the interests of the victims of the account. And running out of water, food and health care, in the middle of a meningitis epidemic, is not in their interests. This government has been in power for 20 years - expect Bashir to organise one hell of a party on June 30 this year - and we have no excuse for not knowing how it works. It is constantly looking for pretexts to erect obstacles in front of humanitarians. This is a tragedy foreseen, and avoidable. I’m not against accountability at the highest level for the crimes committed in Darfur. Far from it. But with no-one to protect the victims, this is not the time.
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From Julie Flint:
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Dear Sharon,
Your diagnosis of the difference between the South and Darfur is spot on. Throughout twenty years of war, most Southern Sudanese never saw any relief. Most war-displaced Darfurians have received a fair amount.
It’s so much easier to know what not to do than what to do at this point, when we have so dramatically limited our options. Don’t impose a no-fly zone, for starters, since most aid goes - or more correctly now, went - by air and must again. Don’t bomb. Nick Kristof, who a few days ago told us that our fears that aid agencies would be expelled were ‘overblown’, now wants us to bomb the Sudan air force. And the same government that has cut the lifeline of more than a million Darfurians without batting an eyelid will take that sitting down? Pull the other one. De-escalate. Don’t escalate. Get off the high moral ground into the dust and mud where displaced Darfurians live. Put yourself in the place of a mother who has been under canvas for five years, whose child has meningitis, malaria or diarrhea, and not a doctor or nurse in sight now. Prioritize the life of that child. There are hundreds of thousands of them, most already beginning to feel the effects of Bashir’s arrest warrant.
The immediate challenge is to respond to the gaping holes in service provision - NGOs estimate that 70% of humanitarian service delivery to 4.7 million people in Darfur will be affected - and to try somehow to utilize (and if necessary protect) the 2,570 national staff rendered jobless. The 200 international staff have until 9 March to leave Sudan. Sudanese law states that NGOs should have 30 days to challenge the revocation of registration, but the government has dismissed this, citing ‘national emergency’ and ’state security’. I see no moderates on the horizon, no ripe prospects for peace.
Somehow international organizations have to find a way to dialogue with the government - criminalized in its entirety by the ICC Prosecutor - at a time when it appears that those who want a degree at least of cooperation have been silenced or pushed aside. In the immediate term, this may have to be by proxy - through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the African Union. The CPA cannot be allowed to collapse. HAC Commissioner Dr. Hassabo Mohamed Abdul Rahman has said more NGOs are under investigation for collaboration with the ICC and will be expelled if a connection is found. Ever since Moreno Ocampo applied for the arrest warrant, activists in the US especially have been hailing this as a breakthrough for peace and a means of leverage on the government. I don’t get this. I see a dwindling of peace hopes and vastly diminished leverage.
Security in the camps must be a major concern. The ICC’s outreach was poor, and the arrest warrant against Bashir seemed to many like a magic bullet. (Even if he were, somehow, arrested, would the regime veer into democracy? Almost certainly not.) There is a need for urgent contacts with the rebel leaders who have influence in the camps - especially Abdel Wahid - to calm rather than inflame the situation and do what they can to stabilize it. JEM must be warned not to seize this moment to make another military push.
Economic sanctions? Would they not affect ordinary Sudanese? What I am hearing indicates that the main concern ordinary Sudanese have about the Bashir warrant is the effect it will have on their economy. Make things tougher on that front and risk increased support for Bashir, I think.
Finally, start telling it like it is. (In for a penny in for a pound.) Distortion of facts, purple prose and exaggerated rhetoric, with a liberal sprinkling of Sudanophobia, have all conspired to create the current dead end - Bashir dances while Darfurians risk starving again, en masse. Five thousand people are not dying a month. There is no ‘ongoing genocide’. (The ICC judges said that, effectively telling Moreno Ocampo he got it wrong.) Not all aerial bombardment by the government is ‘genocidal’ and unprovoked. Let’s get it in perspective, stop talking about ‘saving’ Darfur and work out how best we can help them Darfurians to save themselves - especially now that our own leverage is so dramatically reduced.
Then we can worry about putting Sudan’s leaders in handcuffs. They’ll still be there in a few years’ time.
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Grenade victim
Photo: After a grenade exploded, Bakit Musa, 8, lost his hands, one eye and the skin on half of his face. (Nicholas D. Kristof/The New York Times March 4, 2009)
From Kristof's blog at nytimes.com March 7, 2009
Your comments on my Darfur column
By NICHOLAS KRISTOF
My Sunday column is about the aid workers being expelled from Darfur. Surprisingly, the United Nations reacted with rather more vigor than the Obama administration, especially at first. Ban Ki-moon issued a tough statement and has been busy calling up leaders in the region to try to get this reversed, and the heads of WFP and other agencies made strong statements as well. In contrast, the initial State Department comment was pathetic, although it was strengthened to a condemnation on Friday. Obama, Biden, Clinton were all tough on Darfur when they were in the Senate and when they were running for office, so let’s hope they aren’t backing down now that they are in office.- - -
Let me also try to clarify something. There are still many aid workers who have not been expelled (World Vision is one of the biggest groups that remains in place), and of course they will try to pick up the slack. But they won’t be able to, except at the margins, for a couple of reasons. First they have their own missions, and everybody is understaffed. Second, Sudan security officials have closed the offices and confiscated the equipment of the expelled NGO’s, and you can’t do a food distribution if you don’t have lists of people who are supposed to get aid; a communications technician for a group that remains can’t shift to treating children with diarrhea, particularly if the clinic and medications have been confiscated. In some areas, the camp managers were expelled, so there is no longer anyone who even knows what is needed. Third, there is a wide variation in the regional impact of the expelled NGO’s. For example, almost all the aid groups in West Darfur were expelled, but a World Vision staff member in South Darfur can’t do anything to save lives in West Darfur.
Bashir surprised most of his own ministers with the decision (the first vice president didn’t know of it), and they seem to have mixed views. Bashir has been very tough in meetings in the capital, but he was also very tough on how he would never allow UN peacekeepers into Darfur, and of course he did. The key was international pressure, and that’s what we desperately need right now.
Your comments?
Postscript from Sudan Watch: Here is a copy of a noteworthy comment posted to Kristof's commentary copied here above. There are more from the 50+ comments posted that I would have liked to include here (especially one re British involvement over 100 years) but I can't re-read them all, must close and sleep now. Maybe more, tomorrow. Bye for now.
While in your replies to comments you do acknowledge some of the complexities of the situation, your original column was just an artificial and simplistic ‘white hat/black hat’ distortion. You can’t just go visit a place for a few months and think that you know what should happen there better than the locals.Well said, Mr Mellish, brilliant comment. Loved the lines that I have highlighted with red!
I still remember your suggested ’solution’ to the issue of Tibet’s status which was equally simplistic. No element of that solution has come to pass, ever will, or should. It was a very typical case of the perils of half-understanding a situation, which seems to be a specialty of yours.
These neo-imperialist attempts to solve other nations’ problems for them without their consent are just as harmful coming from well-meaning and intelligent liberals such as yourself as they are from incompetent noecons, if not more so. The Third World is rightly hypersensitive to this in the aftermath of Iraq, and any attempt to escalate the issue, particularly along military lines as you suggest, would fracture the world order and cause immeasurable damage compared to which Iraq would be a walk in the park. American pilots shot down enforcing a no-fly zone by Sudanese using Chinese antiaircraft weaponry helped by Chinese advisers, and locked up in a Sudanese jail? Peacekeeping troops from the A.U. fighting UN troops from Europe? Sudan bombing French airbases in Chad? The nightmare scenarios are endless. The Chinese would veto any Security Council action, and rightly so, but that still leaves a lot of scope for the Americans and Europeans acting independently to cause an enormous amount of damage.
The comprehension of Americans, in particular, of other countries and how they work (as opposed to how we would like them to work) is just about zero, and you unfortunately are no exception.
The best hope in this situation would have been to push all sides in the peace talks to the negotiating table and towards a solution, but the ICC’s boneheaded action has removed all incentives for any party to negotiate. The rebels hope the international community will do their dirty work for them, and the government now no longer has any scenario in which the international community recognizes their rule, and hence has absolutely nothing to gain from negotiating and nothing to lose by walking away. Nice job (not)! This one is going to get ugly, and you are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
— Martin Mellish
