Monday, January 17, 2005

UN braces for uncontrolled return of displaced into S. Sudan

An Agence France-Presse report out of Rumbek, Sudan on Jan 16 explains how the UN is working with the SPLM rebels in the bombed-out southern town of Rumbek, where the rebel group has set up its headquarters.

With the rebels set to run an autonomous administration for the south under the terms of last week's peace deal, the UN fears that the trickle of returns will become a flood, overwhelming its ability to provide for them.

"We are working with them (the rebels) to establish appropriate institutions to manage this," the UN humanitarian coordinator for southern Sudan, W. David Gressly, told AFP.
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UNCHR expect return of 500,000 - 1.2 million people to southern Sudan

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that at least 3.5 million of southern Sudan's 10 million people were displaced by the 21-year civil war. Of those, some 500,000 found refuge beyond Sudan's borders.

"We don't expect all of them to come back at once, but we do expect them to come back," said Gressly.

The UNHCR expects anywhere between 500,000 and 1.2 million people to return to the south this year, the majority of them from northern Sudan and neighbouring countries such as Uganda and Kenya.
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UNCHR estimates this year alone will cost 60 million dollars to reintegrate returnees

One of Africa's least developed regions even before the war, south Sudan now lacks the most basic infrastructure and the UNHCR estimates that this year alone it will cost at least 60 million dollars to reintegrate returnees.

"The first challenge I think is water, particularly for those returns coming to Bahr El-Ghazal," said Gressly. "They are coming from an educational background which has been based on Arabic instruction and here it is English-language instruction," he said.
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UN WFP says 3.2 million people at risk from famine in southern Sudan

Food is another immense problem in a region where UN agencies say there is already a risk of famine.

The World Food Programme says 3.2 million people are threatened with starvation this year and has appealed for 302 million dollars in contributions from UN member states.

Erratic rainfall last year caused the harvest to fail in many parts of southern Sudan. The UN estimates that 48 percent of children under five in rebel-held areas suffer from chronic malnutrition while 21 percent suffer from acute malnutrition.
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UN agencies moving offices from Kenyan border to southern Sudan

In a bid to address the challenges, UN agencies have begun moving their offices to southern Sudan from the Kenyan border where they were based during the war. But officials concede that logistical problems are still hobbling their response. "There is very little infrastructure," said Gressly.
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An estimated 3 - 5 million landmines planted in Sudan

The deadly legacy of an estimated three to five million landmines planted by government forces and the rebels is the biggest obstacle, making road travel dangerous if not impossible.

"It's as serious as anywhere else in the world where there is a mine problem in population areas," said Dave McIvor, an operations officer for the United Nations Mines Action Service.

The Swiss Foundation for Demining (FSD) has been conducting a survey of demining needs under contract to the United Nations. "The priority at the moment throughout Sudan is to clear the roads," said Michael Story, a supervisor for the FSD.

But in a region where even the most basic needs frequently go unmet, UN officials say it is difficult to get residents to take the problem seriously.

"People just say: 'We have been living with these mines for years and nothing happened. Talk to us about food and water,'" said Diana Surur, an assistant project officer for UNICEFs Mine Risk Education programme.
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Mobiles ring in south Sudan's new era

RUMBEK, Sudan (Reuters) Jan 17: The town of Rumbek in southern Sudan is getting used to a sound never heard before -- the ringing of a mobile phone.

Fighting had left southern Sudan a black spot for telecommunications until last August when the region's first mobile phone operator -- Network of the World (NOW) -- was set up with a multimillion dollar investment. Satellite dishes, generators, computers, a telecoms mast and a wooden shed for an Internet cafe were transported piecemeal to the bush, by convoy and chartered plane. Despite a chronic lack of trained technicians and engineers in southern Sudan, a network was up and running within four months.

There are now about 1,000 subscribers to NOW in two towns -- Rumbek and Yei, and Richard Herbert, NOW's operations director, is confident that number will increase five-fold by the end of the year.

"Our long-term goal is to get as many mobile phones into people's hands as possible so that relatives abroad can get in touch," he told Reuters in an interview. "For most people, receiving phone calls is more important than making them because they don't have the buying power yet." Full Story.

UN site agreed for Sudan peacekeepers - Denmark to send 45 soldiers by March

Agence France-Presse report Jan 12: UN peacekeepers to be sent to Sudan after a peace agreement between Khartoum and the SPLM will be based at Kassala in the east of the country, a news report said Wednesday.

By mutual agreement between Sudanese and UN authorities, offices and barracks will be built close to the airport at Kassala, Sudan's Akhbar Al-Yum newspaper reported. According to the paper, the UN force is to number 7,000 troops, although no official UN decision has been announced on the size of a possible contingent.
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Denmark to send 45 soldiers to Sudan by March

China View report Jan 10: Denmark will send 45 soldiers to Sudan to take part in the UNs peacekeeping force there after the peace agreement Khartoum signed with the rebels in south Sudan, Ritzau news bureau reported on Monday.

Danish Captain Karsten Engdahl said the Danish soldiers will be part of the headquarters company. "We expect that our soldiers will work in the headquarters company which is being established. They may work as, for example, drivers, bookkeeping personnel or in intelligence," he said to Danish newspaper Information. He said Sudan is not a safe place, so the UN wants soldiers rather than civilian personnel for the work there.

The soldiers will be part of the UN's standing reactionary force, SHIRBRIG, which is based at Hovelte Kaserne north of Copenhagen. Commander of the force, Brigadier General Greg Mitchell, expected it will be two weeks before the UN Security Council issues a mandate for the peacekeeping force. "Then we expect our people will be in place in Sudan within 45 days. That will put them in Sudan at the beginning of March," said General Mitchell.

Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller welcomed the peace agreement and promised that Denmark will cooperate with a UN request to provide troops. "The agreement in Sudan is a groundbreaking contribution for peace in the country," he said. "This historic agreement can increase political stability and economic prosperity in Sudan and the region as a whole."

Further reading:

Inter Press Service report June 14, 2004: Peacekeepers a drop in the ocean; rebels in south Sudan have welcomed the UNs decision to send a peacekeeping mission to the country to monitor agreements that would end Africa's longest running civil war.

Interesting site: Citizens for Global Solutions.
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Khartoum, opposition NDA agree on wide-ranging issues

China View report Jan 16: The Sudanese government and the opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) agreed Sunday on wide-ranging issues after three rounds of talks held here since August, Egypt's official MENA news agency reported.

MENA said the two sides, which kicked off a third round of talks last Friday, are expected to sign a final agreement in February. Khartoum and the NDA agreed to form a joint committee tostreamline the opposition group and its proxy troops to assimilatethem into the country's legislative, executive and federal institutions, according to the agency.

The NDA, an umbrella group which includes southern Sudanese rebels and the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), one of the two main rebel groups in Darfur.
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EU to release Sudan's frozen funds?

So far, I have seen no other news confirming a Jan 16 report out of Khartoum that says the EU are releasing 786 million US dollars to Sudan. The source of the report is Sudanese Foreign Minister Ismail who also said a high-level delegation from Sudan, headed by VP Taha, will visit Brussels to sign the EU agreement, and plan to visit other European countries next month to boost bilateral relations. I hope this report is not true. The ink is barely dry on the new peace deal. US Ambassador Danforth says from experience that agreements in Sudan tend to be written in disappearing ink. Hopefully, travel restrictions will be imposed when the findings of the UNs investigation into genocide in Darfur are made public around Jan 25.

Sunday, January 16, 2005

Brown: Let women lead Africa out of poverty

Last summer, Desmond Tutu said women should rule the world because men have made a mess of it. And media mogul Ted Turner said women should rule the world for 100 years.

Today, a report in the Sunday Times on Gordon Brown's week-long tour of Africa quotes him yesterday as saying that enhancing the role of women was the key to lifting the continent out of poverty. Excerpt from the report:

The chancellor, on a visit to the Maragra sugar mill and plantation in Mozambique, was accompanied by Luisa Diogo, one of Africa's few prominent female politicians. Diogo is both prime minister and finance minister of Mozambique. Yesterday, alongside Diogo, he said that the main lesson he had learnt on his trip was that action to reduce poverty in Africa had to focus on women.

"Women are the biggest victims of the African poverty I have seen: most likely to suffer from HIV/Aids, most likely to be denied schooling and constituting 70% of the poor," Brown said. "But I have also met younger women pushing for reform, leading not just in calling for changes in health provision, secondary schooling and tackling Aids, but leading in microcredit, small business and rural development."

"I believe it is essential that women are the future of Africa," he said.
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Note: Treasury officials pointed out the huge problems of gender inequality in Africa. Women carry out 80% of the agricultural work but own just 1% of farmland. Only 4% of women have title to land or property. Women also suffer educational disadvantages, with girls usually leaving school earlier than boys, often to work the land. Yet figures show that every extra year spent at school reduces the mortality of their subsequent children by 8%.

Brown has been accompanied by four senior women advisers on his African trip: Shriti Vadera, one of his special advisers, and three officials from the Treasury and the Department for International Development.

Sudan's changing map - peace deal could spark more conflict

There is no room for complacency as humanitarian situation in Darfur remains grim, warns Oxfam.

Press reports today are pointing to trouble near the Chad-Sudan border, near the area a third rebel movement NDMR are operating. AFP reports yesterday that attacks in Chad by unidentified men near the border with Sudan's western Darfur killed 15 Chadian villagers.

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Chadian soldiers guard the border with Sudan. (AFP/file)
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Sudan's changing map

A report at PINR Jan 14 titled "Sudan's Changing Map" predicts that Sudan's territorial integrity may soon collapse as the regional rebels see their best opportunities in the fractional chaos that will follow. Note the Conclusion, as follows:

"While the December 31, 2004 permanent cease-fire agreement between the S.P.L.M./A. and Khartoum will bring stability to southern Sudan, the rest of the country is likely to descend into fractional collapse as Darfur's genocide continues and the northeast violently dislodges from Khartoum's influence. If the Darfur and N.D.A. negotiations are not quickly brought to a resolution, Khartoum will likely lose control of Sudan's geographical peripheries. The Sudan Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement (J.E.M.) in Darfur and the Beja Congress and the Free Lions in the northeast are attempting to force this conclusion by stalling the negotiations and escalating the violence in their respective territories (there is some evidence that the J.E.M. is coordinating its actions with the northeastern rebels to this end).

John Garang will be in a unique position as the top vice president in Khartoum to help force the regional peace negotiations to a resolution. While he will pursue a strategy of protecting al-Bashir's government, in order to secure the terms of the north/south peace deal, this will likely take the form of leaning on the regional rebel groups to accept the terms on the table. The West and the U.N. will help give his lobbying weight, but that does not mean the rebels will cave. Sudan's territorial integrity may soon collapse as the regional rebels see their best opportunities in the fractional chaos that will follow."

Full Story.
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Interview: Sudan peace deal could spark more conflict - Mahdi

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Excerpt from Reuters report Jan 16:

Sudan's last elected leader said on Sunday that a deal to end more than two decades of civil war in the south would encourage more people to take up arms because the deal did not have popular support.

Sadiq al-Mahdi, twice prime minister and leader of the Umma party, historically Sudan's biggest, told Reuters the deal signed a week ago was incomplete and, if not rectified, would lead to the fragmentation of Africa's largest country.

"The agreement as it stands does encourage people to seek benefits by military pressure," Mahdi said in an interview in his home in Khartoum.

"If you say the goodies, the benefits, are going to be simply handed out according to military pressure then you are going to get mounting military pressures which ultimately will divide the country up," said Mahdi, great-grandson of the charismatic Mahdi who ruled Sudan in the 1880s. Full Story.
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Sudan's First VP Garang makes Darfur plea

A BBC report today says Garang makes Darfur plea.

Garang says the planned national unity government had to move fast to resolve the Darfur conflict peacefully -- he does not think the Darfur conflict would jeopardise the peace deal between the SPLM and the Khartoum government -- he says there is a need for a similar comprehensive peace accord for the Darfur region, based on justice and fairness.

"There has to be a change of policy, a policy that is based on peaceful settlement, a fair and just political settlement achieved through peaceful means, not through war - addressing the concerns of all the groups in Darfur, both the African nationalities and the Arab nationalities," he told the BBC.

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Garang says fairness and justice are important

Note: The UN says there are about four million people who fled the south because of the conflict and who are expected to return. Many of the relief agencies operating in the south say they have begun preparing for a massive influx of returnees back to their homes.
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Sudan's First VP pledges to hold soon talks with Darfur rebels

While 10,000 people in the refugee camps die each month from malnutrition and disease, Sudan's First Vice President, Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, pointed out that the coming weeks will witness sessions of negotiations, decisions and arrangements to put off the war in Darfur and to realise the unity of rank through the ongoing negotiations with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Cairo. Full Story.

Where has he been on the Darfur peace talks all these months?

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Ali Osman Taha
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Sudanese minister calls for Arab media support on Darfur

The source of this news via Sudan Tribune Jan 16, is Sudanese radio -- it says a Sudanese minister has called on Arab media to play its role in combating inimical media campaign which is being carried out by prejudiced Western media against Sudan. It calls for Arab media support on Darfur.

Note also, the report says a delegation of the Arab Journalist Union expressed its solidarity with the Sudanese government in realising peace and accord, as well as resolving the Darfur problem.

So, as always, here's continuing to be wary of interviews and reports pumped out from Khartoum and Arab nations.
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Janjaweed poaching in Congo - endangered white rhinos to be moved to Kenya

A report from IOL says despite decades of war-related poaching by gunmen from Sudan and Congo, local and international conservationists in the Congo have long managed to protect rhinos and elephants in the park.

The report explains: rangers have fought off southern Sudanese rebels who had poached bushmeat from the former Zaire to fund their 21-year insurgency in the mainly Christian and animist south -- the crisis has been exacerbated by northern Sudanese poachers who hail from the same ethnic group as the Janjaweed Arab militia accused of raping and killing in Darfur -- and last year, they began crossing into Congo on horseback, slaughtering rhinos and taking their horns back to Sudan.

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There could be more northern whites in zoos than in the wild

Five of the few northern white rhinos left in the wild will be flown from Democratic Republic of Congo to prevent poachers wiping them out, conservationists said on Saturday. Fewer than 10 of the rhinos are believed to remain and with heavily armed poachers carrying out frequent raids in the wilds of northeastern Congo, moving the beasts to sanctuary in Kenya is deemed the only option to guarantee their survival.

Speech of President Omar Al-Bashir to OIC Foreign Ministers

PRESS RELEASE: Thursday, June 27, 2002

TWENTY-NINTH SESSION OF THE ISLAMIC CONFERENCE OF FOREIGN MINISTERS KHARTOUM, 25-27 JUNE, 2002

Speech of His Excellency Omar Hassan Ahmed Al-Beshir President Of The Republic Of Sudan:

http://www.sudanembassy.org/default.asp?page=viewstory&id=75

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Congratulations to anyone who understands what he is talking about :-)

And thank you to Black River Eagle of Jewels of the Jungle blog for finding the report.

Saturday, January 15, 2005

Distrust clouds peace euphoria in Sudan rebel town

A report out of Rumbek, Sudan via Reuters Jan 11 explains how, just days after euphoria greeted the signing of a peace deal to end 21 years of civil war in Sudan, murmurings of mistrust are surfacing in the rebel-held south. Excerpt:

Many locals are cautious about the deal ending the conflict between the north's Arabic-speaking Islamist government and the mainly Christian and animist insurgents from the south.

"These Arabs, you can't do anything with them, you can't trust them," said Patrick Deng, a former guerrilla who joined Garang's Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) in 1987. "It would have been better if the deal split the country," said the 36-year-old - who now makes a living as a builder in Rumbek - reflecting a desire among many in the town to break with the north as soon as possible.

Many hardline SPLA supporters say the northerners are not to be trusted and quote a local saying that reveals the extent of their suspicion and bitterness: "If you are faced with a Muslim and a lion, best to kill the Muslim first because he is more dangerous."

Youth leader Maluak Muorwel, 24, said Garang's appeal to make a united Sudan attractive to its citizens was wrong. "If I was the leader I would make separation attractive - convince the Western world that we are capable of ruling ourselves and having our own country," said Muorwel, who remembers the town being bombarded by Khartoum's Antonov planes. "That is in the mind of everyone - that we need our own country," he said.

His friend Adam Dut said he was worried the SPLA struggle would be forgotten in the six years before the vote on independence for the south. "We fear Arabs will use money to buy our vote and create divisions," said the 21-year-old. "Their interest is not in developing the south but to rule and assimilate us." Read full story.

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A southern Sudanese crew repairs roads in the provisional capital of Rumbek. Reparing infrastructure is a priority of Sudan People's Liberation Movement.(AFP/HO-UNICEF /Ben Parker)

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SPLM/A troops line up during a public rally in the southern Sudan town of Rumbek to celebrate a final peace agreement with the Khartoum government that was signed in Kenya 09 January. Many have promoted Rumbek, as the provisional capital of SPLM/A, but officials warn that the town may not even be able to host the region's new government. (AFP/Unicef/Ben Parker)
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Sudanese President gives speech in Khartoum

Black River Eagle, of Jewels in the Jungle blog, asks here in a comment if I know of any transcripts documenting President Bashir's speeches. I have not seen any. Today, I saw this photo at Yahoo pix where the caption says President Bashir gave a speech on Wednesday, promising to bring peace to Darfur and south Sudan.

Also, on Saturday, Jan 1, 2005, he addressed the national assembly in Khartoum . In his annual speech to the Sudanese parliament marking his country's independence from British rule, President Omar el-Bashir urged all Sudanese, particularly opposition groups, to both engage in a comprehensive reconciliation and work to end the Darfur crisis. (AP).

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Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir gestures during his speech in Khartoum, Sudan, Jan 12, 2005, where he pledged to bring peace to Darfur. Speaking during a reception hosted in his honour by the ruling National Congress Party in Khartoum to mark the end of his tour of southern Sudan, Omar el-Bashir promised that peace will be realised in Darfur as it was realised in the south. (AP Photo/Abd Raouf)

Friday, January 14, 2005

Who is next in line to chair the African Union: is it likely to be the President of Sudan el Bashir?

A report at Mmegi Online today Jan 14 says - quote:
"The Chairman of the African Union is likely to be the President of Sudan, el Bashir who has yet to stop killing in Darfur. The AU has not yet committed peace keepers to the Sudan. The Sudanese Government has recently signed an Agreement with John Garang's Southerners, but this will be the second time, because an earlier Agreement failed, resulting in continuation of civil war there."
Can anyone confirm this? Surely it's not possible for Sudan to chair meetings concerning AU troops for Darfur. Sudan has refused all offers of help with security. Only after its arm was twisted by the AU, did it agree to AU troops on condition there were no more than 3,000 and would be hamstrung without a mandate to act as a protection force for anyone other than UN observers.

Forgive me for being suspicious here, but could the delay in AU troops getting to Darfur have anything to do with leaders within the African Union being chummy with Sudan and stringing along the international community? I am finding it difficult to trust anything that is going on with Africa and its politics right now.

News reports give no rational explanation for the delay in the appearance of 2,000 AU troops promised for Darfur. The only explanation I have found so far is a news report saying the delay is due to lack of "accommodation" for AU troops in Darfur - which sounds odd because they could use military tents. I've yet to find a report detailing how and when American contractors set up accommodation for the AU troops currently serving in Darfur.

UN reports fresh attacks by armed militias in Darfur, Sudan

A UN mission report yesterday says new attacks on NGOs occurred Jan 11.

Kofi Annan warns in his latest report Jan 7 to the Security Council on Darfur that the overall security situation in the region remains poor and political negotiations between the Sudanese Government and rebel groups have reached a stalemate.

The report says aid workers are increasingly at risk of violent attacks, armed groups are re-arming in defiance of previous Council resolution, and the conflict appears to be spreading into the neighbouring state of Western Kordofan.

Time for a no-fly zone over Darfur in Sudan?

A report via Reuters Jan 13 says Sudan defends its use of military aircraft in Darfur.

Bearing in mind that a UN resolution in November said Khartoum had the primary responsibility to protect its population -- and Sudan did everything it could to ensure any AU troops entering Sudan were low in number and hamstrung -- and Jan Pronk, UN envoy to Sudan, called on Khartoum a few days ago to stop military flights -- here is the excuse Sudan's foreign minister Moustafa Osman Ismail gave for carrying out a recent air attack:

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Sudan's foreign minister Moustafa Osman Ismail (AP).

"The government used aircraft. According to the Security Council resolution, the government is responsible for protecting routes and protecting civilians," Ismail told reporters in Cairo. "If the African forces there cannot protect routes and protect civilians, then the Sudanese government must undertake that," Ismail said, adding that the government had a right to use planes in an area larger than France.

Ismail said the government did not carry out aerial bombardments but would investigate such accusations. "When we use aircraft, we do not use aerial bombardment. We do not use planes that drop bombs. This is different from helicopter gunship aircraft," he said. Ismail said that if key routes were cut because of rebel ceasefire violations then the government would not be able to deliver food and other supplies to the population.
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Hopefully, a no-fly zone will be one of the options under consideration by the UN Security Council when the findings of the UN investigation into genocide in Darfur are made public around January 25. As reported here earlier, Darfur peace talks were tentatively set for January 28 but another press report mentioned February 1. See how the days turn into weeks, and the weeks into months, and the months into years, while 10,000 die in the camps each month?

US Ambassador Danforth says sanctions are still on the table

Going by what US Ambassador John Danforth and others say in a Washington File report Jan 12 there is no mention of a no-fly zone for Darfur.

The following is an excerpt from the report that gives an insight into what is being put forward to the UN Security Council. Who knows how much will change around Jan 25 when the UN makes public the findings of its investigation into genocide in Darfur:

Mr Danforth says that "sanctions are still on the table." Sanctions were discussed during the session, Danforth noted. Even though some council members are opposed to sanctions as a general principle, "it may be possible to fashion" sanctions in a way that would be agreeable to a majority of council members, he said.

The peace agreement, he pointed out, "has ended a war that has lasted more than two decades and that has claimed more than 2 million lives, and people are pushing that off the front page as though nothing had happened last Sunday [January 9]. Something big happened last Sunday and it was due in large part to the engagement of the United States in this process."

Pronk said that the North-South peace process can be applied to Darfur and "it must."

"We can make it work," he said. "It is hard to imagine that the peace dividend promised by the Nairobi agreement will be reaped without an end to the suffering in Darfur," Pronk said. "International aid will not flow and, more important, in Sudan itself, the achievement will turn out to be vulnerable." As long as there is war in some part of Sudan, resources will be spent on weapons, not welfare, he said, and "investors will be reluctant, entrepreneurs will hesitate, young people with brains and initiative will want to leave the country, displaced people will wander around."

Offering several suggestions that could encourage a peace agreement, Pronk said that the government and rebels in Darfur must be pressured, reasoned with, and offered alternatives to the status quo.

Suggestions included: As a show of good will, the government and rebel movements should all withdraw behind reasonable and well-defined lines with African Union troops moving in to protect the areas; the government should make a new start in disarming the Jingaweit; the rebel movement should agree not to block or disrupt peaceful seasonal movements of nomadic tribes and their cattle; and the parties must identify practical means to provide basic needs such as food to their forces in order to lessen the urge to steal, loot and kill.

He urged the international community to "do whatever is required to accelerate the rate of deployment of AU troops."

Danforth also mentioned the possibility of adding international police protection in the camps, and Pronk suggested that the number of human rights monitors in the region be increased from 20 to 150.

The security situation in Darfur is bad and the humanitarian situation poor, Pronk told the council. Violence has spread into the camps for displaced persons and is directly affecting humanitarian workers as well; refugees are not returning in sufficient numbers to plant sustainable crops; and livestock is being lost on a huge scale, he said.

Sudan urges complete deployment of AU troops to Darfur

An Associated Press report Jan 13 quotes Sudan's foreign minister Moustafa Osman Ismail Thursday as saying his government is awaiting the arrival of more AU troops to monitor a truce in Darfur. Ismail, responding to questions about government military action in Darfur despite a Nov 9 ceasefire, said Khartoum had to do something to protect the civilians.

"If the African troops can't defend the roads and civilians, the government must do that," he said. "We can't leave the rebels to cut the roads that reach (the 5 million civilians in Darfur)."

Ismail said Khartoum is investigating allegations that government planes bombed rebel positions in Sayeh, outside the North Darfur state capital of El Fasher, on Jan 3.

"This is not Sudanese government policy. If we are absolutely sure, the punished will be the officer who carried this out, or his leader who ordered this," Ismail told The Associated Press. "If it has happened, it is a mistake."

Also, he said: "... All this reaffirms the unwavering position of the Sudanese government, because we know that without dealing with the Darfur issue, we will not be able to benefit from the momentum of the peace signing in the south. Therefore, we are concerned to reach peace in Darfur."
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Note, Khartoum argued against ANY troops entering Sudan to help provide security. It set the maximum limit of 3,000 AU soldiers on condition the troops were hamstrung without a full mandate to protect. It is interesting to see a Sudanese offficial quote the number of 5 million civilians in Darfur. Where are all these people and how are they managing? 5 million is roughly the number of people living in London. With regards to the last sentence above, replace the word "momentum" with "development aid" to get at the truth of what Ismail is really saying. As reported here earlier, the massive amount of development aid promised to Sudan by the international community will only be paid out when progress has been made on Darfur, not directly after the signing of the recent peace treaty.

Chad-Sudan: A third rebel movement the NMRD has appeared in Darfur

A report by IRIN Jan 13 says the main rebel groups in Darfur view the newly formed rebel group National Movement for Reform and Development (NMRD) as a stooge of the authorities in Khartoum.

The report explains the NMRD claims to be a breakaway movement from JEM, one of the main rebel groups in Darfur. NMRD leader said his group broke away from JEM in April last year because it disagreed with Tourabi, an Islamic fundamentalist politician, over the rebel movement. Tourabi helped Sudan's current president, seize power in a 1989 coup and subsequently became an influential figure in his administration. However, the two men fell out 10 years later and Tourabi went into opposition.

Note, the report also says that Khartoum's talks with the NMRD in Chad appear to have made rapid progress: the two sides agreed a ceasefire on 17 December and on 3 January they struck a deal to promote the return of refugees from Chad to areas which the NMRD claims to control.

Ahmad Allami, an adviser of Chadian President Idriss Deby who has acted as a mediator in several rounds of peace talks with all three rebel movements in Darfur, said the NMRD were a force to be taken seriously. He estimated that the movement had about 1,000 fighters on the ground. "Contrary to what has been said, the NMRD do represent something in Darfur as they managed to prompt a number of Sudanese refugees to return to Sudan," Allami told IRIN.

A western diplomat based in N'Djamena also cautioned that the breakaway rebel movement should not be dismissed too lightly. "Our indications are that the NMRD should not be under-estimated since a sizeable part of JEM's military capacity appears to be under their control," he told IRIN.

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The main rebel groups in Darfur view the NMRD as a stooge of the authorities in Khartoum. "This group belongs to the Sudanese government ... it is very strange that the government negotiates with itself," said a JEM negotiator at the currently suspended Darfur peace talks in Abuja. (Photo IRIN)

UNHCR stress that they have no plans to repatriate any refugees in the short term

The above post that features a report from IRIN JUan 13 points out that Tine in Chad is the border settlement where the NMRD signed a deal that was supposed to lead to refugees returning voluntarily to Darfur.

Also, the report explains that Ahmad Allami, an adviser of Chadian President Idriss Deby who has acted as a mediator in several rounds of peace talks with all three rebel movements in Darfur, said the NMRD were a force to be taken seriously. He estimated that the movement had about 1,000 fighters on the ground. "Contrary to what has been said, the NMRD do represent something in Darfur as they managed to prompt a number of Sudanese refugees to return to Sudan," Allami told IRIN.

A UNHCR official in eastern Chad said some refugees had been making brief trips across the border to benefit from money and assistance packages offered by the Sudanese authorities to returning refugees. But once they had grabbed their cash and food parcels they hurried back into Chad, he added.

"All refugees questioned by the UN say they do not want to go back," he told IRIN. He stressed that UNHCR had no plans to repatriate any of them in the short term.

Note: The report states nearly a third of Darfur's six million inhabitants have been forced to leave their homes, mainly as a result of raids on black African villages by Arab nomads grouped in the pro-government Janjawid militia movement; and the UN estimates that 1.65 million are internally displaced and a further 200,000 have fled to Chad.

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The Sudanese refugees in Kourbileke, eastern Chad 4 Feb 2004 - Chad-Sudan: Darfur's invisible refugees living rough in eastern Chad - IRIN.

Sudan's tribal leaders and other groups to be included in political dialogue on Darfur

Continuing on from the above post that features a report by IRIN Jan 13, here is an excerpt that hints at including other groups besides the SLA and JEM in the political dialogue to bring peace to Darfur:

Briefing the UN Security Council on Tuesday this week, Jan Pronk, the UN envoy to Sudan, made no reference to the NMRD as a player in the Darfur conflict. But he warned that security situation was still bad, the humanitarian situation was poor and the region was still in a political stalemate.

Pronk accused the rival factions in Darfur of re-arming and pointed to a recent increase in banditry and looting. He also drew attention to the recent spread of armed conflict to the neighbouring province of Khordofan. And the UN envoy was dismissive of all agreements signed so far to bring an end to the fighting.

"Talks between the parties on Darfur have not yielded concrete results or much narrowing of the gap on the issues concerned," Pronk said. "Despite regular statements to the contrary, the parties have yet to commit in practice to the implementation of the humanitarian ceasefire (agreed in April 2004)."

However, hinting at the need to include other groups besides the SLA and JEM in the political dialogue, Pronk said: "It would be useful to start thinking of including tribal leaders in finding political solutions even before reconciliation has taken place. That may include tribes that so far were beyond control by the government or by the rebel movements and were fighting to protect their own interests."

Could that perhaps point to a role for the NMRD in the overall negotiating process?

Allami, the Chadian mediator, also advised that the peacebrokers in Darfur should cast their net wider. "We should involve all the political and military forces in a definitive and global settlement of the crisis in Darfur," he told IRIN.

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Soldiers in a miltary unit calling themselves variously the Border Intelligence Division, Second Reconnaisance Brigade, or the Quick and the Horrible, also believed to form part of the Janjaweed militia, walk around the weekly animal market in Mistiria in North Darfur, Sudan, Oct. 5, 2004 (AP) - courtesy Sudan Tribune.

For too long the Arab World has ignored areas adjacent to sub-Saharan Africa

Mustafa El-Feki, in a piece at Al-Ahram Weekly Jan 13, 2005, titled New leaders, old ideas writes "there is no point in becoming excited over a change in leadership if it is not accompanied by a change in direction." He is chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the People's Assembly and on the Sudan writes the following:

The situation in southern Sudan is a result of the Arab World's habitual shortsightedness. For too long we have ignored the areas adjacent to sub-Saharan Africa. The poverty and depravation I saw during a recent visit to southern Sudan was appalling. The only visible contribution the Arabs have made to the inhabitants of southern Sudan appeared to be a mosque constructed by King Farouk, and the Kuwaiti Hospital in Juba. This remiss is particularly deplorable when we consider that the southern portion of Sudan is the Arab world's African gateway.

Just when a peaceful settlement to the Sudanese civil war appeared possible another nightmare scenario erupted. The crisis of Darfur in western Sudan has attracted the concern of the international community and stirred vehement condemnation in the international media. Sadly, on this issue new Arab leaders continue to tread all too familiar paths.

The question of the Western Sahara remains one of the most intractable Arab-African problems, as well as a long-lasting sore point between Algeria and Morocco. Rabat's reaction to South Africa's demand that it recognise the Saharan republic, combined with its withdrawal from inter-African cooperation within the framework of the OAU, underscores the potentially explosive situation in this corner of the Arab world.

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Hotel Rwanda, PBS and BBC's New Killing Fields in Darfur

American blogger Bill, aka Black River Eagle, writes a great piece highlighting Jim Moore's post re PBS Frontline World Show.

For further reading on the BBC documentary that Bill also writes about, see my post at Passion of the Present titled "The New Killing Fields in Darfur."

Also, please note Jim's review of Hotel Rwanda, a must-see film experience, and list of cinemas showing Hotel Rwanda, effective January 9, 2005 at 23 cities in the US and Canada. I must check if the film is available on DVD so I can view it on my PowerBook.

Candlelight vigil for Darfur Sudan

Last month, American blogger and law student John Fitzgerald attended a candlelight vigil in New York for Darfur and kindly wrote a post to share with us.

Yesterday, John emailed to say he would be attending the next vigil in New York, this coming Monday, and will ensure his camera works this time to take photos for posting here. John's bar exam is next month, here's wishing him all the best.

Chris at Explanada provides details of the vigil to be held 5.00 pm Monday at Dag Hammarskjold Park, UN Plaza.

All of us, anywhere in the world, can light a candle on Monday at 5.00 pm NYC time in memory of the two million Sudanese who have lost their lives, and stand in solidarity with the four million victims of rape, slavery, and displacement. Give meaning to "Never Again."

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Displaced people wait to receive food supplies from the UN World Food Program in Kalma Camp, near Nyala town in Sudan's southern Darfur region. (AFP/File/Jose Cendon) Jan 11, 2005.

Sudan peace deal 'bad' for Darfur

A few reports from the BBC say the Sudan peace deal is 'bad' for Darfur.

Darfur rebel group JEM suggest that government of Sudan troops not needed after the peace deal with the south are being re-deployed to areas in Darfur now classed as peaceful.

Colonel Omar Adam, leader of JEM rebel group in Darfur, told the BBC that Sudan's government is "preparing for war".
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Sudanese president's peace tour

With a peace treaty in hand (that he did not personally sign) Sudan's president Omar el-Bashir began a triumphant tour of his country Monday, Jan 10, 2005, greeted by thousands of revellers. A report in the Guardian yesterday describes how the president, wearing a long, white chieftain's shirt over his safari suit, stopped and restarted his speech several times when onlookers regularly broke into deafening applause and began waiving white pieces of cloth in signs of peace.

"Our ultimate goal is a united Sudan, which will not be built by war but by peace and development," el-Bashir said. "You, the southerners, will be saying, 'We want a strong and huge state, a united Sudan.'"

"The money which we have been spending on war will now be spent on services and development in the south," el-Bashir said from his heavily guarded podium.

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Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir holds aloft a bird symbolising peace at a rally in Juba, Sudan Monday, Jan. 10, 2005. He visited the southern town of Malakal as part of a tour of the region to publicise the deal. He told more than 10,000 local people who packed the stadium to celebrate the end of a war: "From now on, there will be no more fighting, but development and prosperity." (AP Photo/Abd Raouf)
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Reactions vary to south Sudan peace treaty

Learthen Dorsey, associate professor of African studies at University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said he does not believe the peace agreement will work out, says a report in the Daily Nebraskan. The peace agreement requires the government to remove its troops from the South and the SPLA to pull out of the North. But, he said, nothing really forces the Sudanese government to stand by its promise.

"United Nations is too weak to force the compliance," he said. "It has to have some kind of influence from the United States, Great Britain as a former colonial power and the United Nations."

Note, In 1972, the Sudanese government and civil groups signed an agreement and finished a 17-year-long civil war, but the government broke the treaty.

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A Sudanese artist in Juba drawing the Sudanese national flag over which a caption in Arabic reading 'yes for peace and love' while a small boy stands by observing in Juba, Sudan, Sunday, Jan 9, 2005.
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Quotations of the Day January 9, 2005

"This is a glorious day for the Sudan," President Omar Hassan al-Bashir said before an audience of African leaders and western diplomats. "It's not only a deal that ended a protracted war of untold suffering, but it is a new contract for all Sudanese."

"It's a big day but I'm not euphoric," said John C. Danforth, the American ambassador to the United Nations and President Bush's former special envoy to Sudan. "It's like climbing Mount Everest. You reach one pinnacle and there are ranges of mountains behind." via NYT

David Mozersky, the Sudan analyst for the International Crisis Group, said "The same Government that signed this deal is still carrying out attacks on civilians in Darfur. Unless the fighting stops, it will be very difficult for the country to move from a culture of war to a culture of peace."

Lazaro Sumbeiywo, the Kenyan general who acted as chief mediator during the talks, called the deal "a precious child to nurture with love and care."

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Sudan's President Omar El-Bashir (partly hidden-L) shakes hands with the country's main rebel leader John Garang (R) next to Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki after signing the long awaited peace accord in Nairobi 09 January 2005. (AFP/Simon Maina)
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Can Garang make a successful transition to government?

John Garang, new First Vice-President of Sudan (taking over from VP Taha) will report directly to Sudan's President Bashir. The day before yesterday said he did not want to be associated with violence or fight any more Sudanese. He said the best way to get things done is through talks and negotiation.

A day later, he is quoted as saying: "It is exactly 42 years since I first left for the bush to begin the first war. I hope I will not go back to the bush again, but I am a guerrilla and I take my time. The union would be dissolved amicably after the six year interim period."

"If they fail in creating a Sudan of equality, then the best option would be to look at other solutions such as splitting the country into smaller states, we must have full devolution of power, otherwise the country may not move forward," Garang warned. [via SudanTribune]

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Can John Garang make a successful transition to government after fighting in the bush for 42 years?
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Norwegian minister lauded for peace work in Sudan

Bravo to the Norwegians for building a great reputation, and quite a little industry, on successful peace brokering. And doing very well at it too, thank God. We need many more of them to apply their peace making skills in the hotspots of the world.

A report from Aftenposten Norway Jan 11 says Hilde Frafjord Johnson, Norway's government minister in charge of foreign aid, was the subject of much praise over the weekend, for her role in helping bring about a peace pact in Sudan. She took part in the signing ceremony for the peace agreement and signed it as a witness on behalf of the Norwegian Government, along with British Minister Hilary Benn and US Secretary of State Colin Powell.

"Hilde is fantastic," guerrilla leader John Garang told newspaper VG. "She deserves the Nobel Peace Prize."

Others were equally appreciative. "There's no doubt that... Johnson has played a decisive role in the process that led to this outstanding agreement," said government representative Ali Osman Taha.

Garang added that without Johnson's "engagement and abilities, we never would have succeeded. Norway has also given great humanitarian aid to southern Sudan."

The report states that Norway, the US and the UK worked closely together to get the Islamic north and the Christian south to put down their weapons.

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Foreign aid minister Hilde Frafjord Johnson, right, at a meeting with the recent Nobel Peace Prize winner Wangari Maathai.
(Photo: Hakon Mosvold Larsen/Scanpix)
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Darfur combatants lay down guns for polio campaign

The Guardian confirms that on Monday, combatants temporarily laid down their guns to let about 5,000 health and humanitarian workers and volunteers begin immunizing 1.3 million Darfur children against polio.

I wonder how they got the word out? See how BOTH sides are capable of ceasing violence. Janjaweed included: how did Khartoum manage that so easily?

The three-day polio program, which will see 40,000 people immunizing 6 million children across the country, is being coordinated by the Sudanese Health Ministry, World Health Organization and the United Nations children fund, UNICEF. Another 1.9 million children living in SPLA-controlled southern Sudan will begin being immunized Jan. 17.

Polio re-emerged last year after its eradication in 2001. Some 112 people have been detected with the virus in 17 of Sudan's 26 states.

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A child is administered with a polio vaccine. Sudan said it had issued an order to halt all military operations in the stricken Darfur region during a nationwide three-day polio vaccination campaign. Interesting to see how Khartoum can rein in its militias when it wants to. (AFP/File/Pius Utomi Ekpei)
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UN Security Council considers 9 ,000 -10,000 peacekeepers for south Sudan

A report in the Guardian Jan 11 says the UN Security Council said Monday it would speedily consider sending peacekeepers to Sudan to support the new peace deal. Note this is part of the peace deal for southern Sudan and does not encompass Darfur in western Sudan.

Jan Pronk, the top UN envoy to Sudan, is expected to brief the security council on a peacekeeping force Tuesday. He said last month that if a peace agreement was reached, he envisioned Security Council adoption of a resolution in the third week of January authorising a wide ranging UN peacekeeping and peace-building mission, hopefully with 9,000 to 10,000 troops of which a number may be British. There are reports that India may contribute troops.

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AU Security Council calls for AU troops in Darfur by end of month

AU Peace and Security Council called on Khartoum yesterday to draw its forces back to the positions they held before a major offensive in the area last month, says Turkish Press Jan 11. The council urged the Darfur rebels to communicate their positions to the ceasefire commission and called for more AU troops on the ground by the end of the month.
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Secretary Annan should resign in protest says US lawmaker

Congress News today quotes U.S. lawmaker Wolf as saying: "As a son of Africa" [Annan is Ghanaian] and a Nobel Peace Prize recipient, Annan should use his "power and prestige to make a passionate plea to the Security Council to deal effectively on Sudan."

Wolf said he cringed at the thought of girls in Darfur "being raped practically before our eyes" and declared, "We cannot continue the status quo. If the Security Council fails to take meaningful action, Secretary Annan should resign in protest."

Mr Wolf said he understood this was "an unusual request to make but I believe these actions could turn the world's attention back to Darfur. Resigning out of protest is an act of great moral leadership and the world would respect his actions."
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Africa silent on the Tsunami victims

New Vision online, Uganda's leading daily, publishes a perspective of a Ugandan in Canada: Opiyo Oloya. It would be interesting to know how much China and the Arab world donated for the Asian tsumani victims. Japan was most generous, donating 500 million dollars, I believe.

Monday, January 10, 2005

Sudan's 'Peace' Protocols: Permanent Peace or Piece by Piece?

By Omar Hassan al-Bashir, Sudanese President, published in Views Section at IslamOnline, January 9, 2005.
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UPDATE Jan 11: Thanks to Bill for pointing out in the comments here that the above link to President Bashir's report of January 9 now leads to a report titled "Framework for Peace or Blueprint for Disintegration?" dated January 10 by Kareem M. Kamel.

Regrettably, I did not take a screenshot of the first report. Clearly, the page has now changed with Kamel's report. Interestingly, the new report does contain elements of the first report. Even the title has been inserted into a section towards the end of the report. The only thing I did extract from the first report titled "Sudan's 'Peace' Protocols: Permanent Peace or Piece by Piece?" (that was clearly billed as being by the Sudanese President and made no mention of Kamel) is this:

"Consequently, by not putting regulations on the use of oil wealth and allowing both sides to purchase weapons with the oil revenues at their disposal, the combatants can quickly expand their military capabilities and renew the conflict anytime."
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Note, I think this would be a good place to point to A Little Red Blog who asks the following good question. [I'd already thought the same question, which is why the above extract from Bashir's report caught my eye as I planned to write a post around it]:

"Now we'll have a better armed south, the existing northern forces and a new force made up of both but loyal to whom?"

Sunday, January 09, 2005

A brief look at the Sudan peace process and agreement

The new interim unity government, and a new regional authority to be run by Garang called the Government of South Sudan, will have its work cut out to develop the south to a level where southerners warm to Khartoum.

Christopher at Mayflower Hill blog writes two great essays explaining why he does not believe there will be peace in the Sudan. He feels we should all be pessimistic and sceptical about Sudan's prospects for peace along the terms of the Naivasha Protocal signed today which, he says, mirrors the Addis Abab agreement of 1972.

Christopher's first essay, entitled "Hoodwinked", is dated January 3, 2005. The second essay, entitled "Historical Parallels" can be found in a post at Mayflower Hill dated January 8, 2005 [apologies unable to link the post].
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A brief look at the Sudan peace process and agreement

The following is a brief look at the peace agreement reached between the government of Sudan and the southern rebels, the Sudan People's Liberation Army, which will cover the next six years.

RELIGIOUS FREEDOM: The 10 states in southern Sudan will be secular, while the north will practice Islamic law.

POWER SHARING: Former rebels will hold 30 percent of national posts, the south will be autonomous.

WEALTH SHARING: Oil revenues from the south will be split 50-50 between the north and south.

SOUTHERN SELF DETERMINATION: The south will vote on independence in 2011.

MONITORING: U.N. observers will monitor a cease-fire and demobilization of troops.

Please click here for a brief introduction to the peace process in southern Sudan.

[via ReliefWeb via Xinhua via COMTEX]

Further reading:

Amnesty international UK - Sudan: North-South peace deal signed, but what about human rights?
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Limited opportunities in Sudan as most of the prospective acreage has been taken by non-Western companies

In a hurry yesterday, I extracted the following editorial from a Jan 8 news article but misplaced the link/source:

"Even if the conflict in Darfur is not related to the oil issue, the fact that the country is experiencing a humanitarian crisis due to conflict cannot be overlooked by anyone," said Christine Batruch, vice president of corporate responsibility at Sweden's Lundin Petroleum AB. She said Lundin, which has reduced its activities in Sudan but retains an interest in one block, would plan its activities for 2005 after the signing of the north-south deal. But she added: "Most of the prospective acreage has been taken by non-Western companies and as such there are limited opportunities."

Total said in December it had reached a deal with the government to update terms on a block it operated until security issues forced it to suspend activities in 1985, but added that operations could only resume once peace was restored. "The conflict in Darfur could potentially impact security in the south, in which case we would have to assess the situation," a spokesman said from Paris. Talk of imposing sanctions on Sudan over the Darfur conflict has added to uncertainty. But analysts said China, with its interests in Sudanese oil output and its veto power at the United Nations, would likely oppose any UN sanctions move."