Why Darfur was left to its pitiful fate (David Blair)

Sep 5 2006 report from The Telegraph's Africa correspondent David Blair [hat tip POTP]:

As helicopter gunships and Antonov bombers sweep across the rugged plains of Darfur, striking villages at will, Sudan's emboldened regime must scent victory. When it comes to spurning international pressure and exposing the vacuity of Western rhetoric, President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan has proved himself a master.

More than two years after Colin Powell, then America's secretary of state, declared the civil war in western Sudan a "genocide" - and after the passage of no fewer than 11 UN resolutions on Darfur – Mr Bashir feels confident enough to launch yet another offensive. At this moment, his forces are laying waste to villages and forcing more families into squalid refugee camps.

Mr Bashir has made a fool of the West. The fighting now raging in North Darfur province, near the local capital of El Fasher, compares with the heaviest since the war began in 2003. UN officials expect it to escalate, for Khartoum is pouring more troops into the area. Mr Bashir, a dour, harsh and unscrupulous general who seized power in a coup 17 years ago, must scarcely believe his good fortune. How has he managed it?

First, a brief look at how we reached this juncture. When Darfur's war broke out, Mr Bashir's Arab-dominated regime faced a grave threat from black African rebels. He could not trust his regular army to suppress this challenge, because most of its rank-and-file were recruited in Darfur and hailed from the same tribes as the insurgents.

So he relied on the notorious Janjaweed militias. These mounted gunmen, drawn from Khartoum's traditional allies among Darfur's Arab tribes, were given carte blanche to pillage the regime's enemies. This dealt the rebels a heavy blow – but also forced two million into refugee camps. The result was an avalanche of international condemnation.

In the summer of 2004, one Western foreign minister after another visited Darfur and spoke words of grave concern. Mr Powell went so far as to accuse Khartoum of carrying out a genocidal campaign, targeted largely on the Fur, Zaghawa and Masalit tribes. He was probably wrong: a UN investigation later ruled that genocide had not taken place. There is no evidence that Mr Bashir intended to eradicate these tribes – and proving genocide turns on whether one party intended to destroy a specific ethnic group.

Yet for a few months in 2004, Sudan felt the full glare of international scrutiny and a succession of UN resolutions followed. Resolution 1556 demanded that Sudan disarm the Janjaweed by August 30, 2004. Mr Bashir solemnly pledged to do so. Four months earlier, Sudan had signed a ceasefire agreement. In December 2004, it promised to ground its warplanes.

It scarcely needs to be said that Khartoum ignored each of these deals. But Mr Bashir never felt strong enough to reject them out of hand. In public, he bowed to every UN resolution and promised obedience, even if his behaviour exposed the mendacity of his words. Contrast this with his response to the Security Council's latest missive on Darfur. Resolution 1706, passed last Thursday, called for the deployment of a fully fledged peacekeeping force in Darfur, consisting of 17,300 troops and 3,300 civilian police.

But the newly emboldened Mr Bashir reacted with scorn. After spending months accusing the UN of "plotting" to "re-colonise" Sudan, he gathered his cabinet on Sunday and announced a "decisive rejection" of the resolution, urging his country to prepare "for the confrontation" with the UN. The unpalatable fact is that Mr Bashir has been watching the West since the onset of Darfur's agony and believes he can get away with almost anything.

In fact, the miscalculations of Western governments have actually strengthened him. Instead of placing pressure on Khartoum, they chose to sponsor a wholly ineffective African Union force of 5,000 troops and 2,000 civilians to Darfur – which made no impact.

The West also backed an endless round of peace talks between Khartoum and Darfur's rebels in Nigeria's capital, Abuja. In retrospect, this was probably the most disastrous move of all. The outcome of the talks was a half-baked peace agreement concluded in May. Mr Bashir's regime signed the deal – but the rebel movement split over whether to follow suit. One faction of the rebel Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), dominated by the minority Zaghawa tribe, signed up. But another SLA group, drawn from the much larger Fur tribe, refused to follow. So Mr Bashir's enemies tore themselves to bits, thanks largely to a peace deal mediated by Hilary Benn, the International Development Secretary, and Robert Zoellick, then America's deputy secretary of state.

This deeply flawed agreement also gave the regime an opening to buy off Minni Minawi, the Zaghawa leader, making him "special adviser" on Darfur affairs. Mr Minawi's rebels, now allied with the Khartoum regime, will fight alongside Mr Bashir's army in the offensive against their former comrades. This has given Khartoum the confidence to launch the new offensive. Having withstood the pressure of 2004 and seen his rebel enemies obligingly fall apart, Mr Bashir feels under no pressure from the West.

What should have been done? Instead of waiting until last Thursday, a resolution calling for peacekeepers should have been passed in 2004. That was the moment to call for an international force, backed by a robust mandate allowing the protection of civilians. Instead of using Sudan's moment of maximum weakness, the West dithered for two years. Mr Bashir weighed his opponents in the balance and found them wanting. Tragically, the resolution was eventually passed at the hour of his greatest strength – and the people of Darfur are paying the price.

UK's MEP Glenys Kinnock calls for extended AMIS mandate with adequate EU funding

4 Sep 2006 UK News Wales report excerpt:

Speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Glenys Kinnock said: "There is now the risk of a massive humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur as the hard-line Sudanese Junta refuses to accept UN troops agreed last week by the security council.

"Tension is building up and a large-scale military confrontation is threatened as thousands of Sudanese troops move into Darfur with trucks, bombs and guns.

"There is a real risk that Darfur will be closed to all external organisations and we will not know the extent of the catastrophe until after the event."

Mrs Kinnock, Co-President of the African, Caribbean and Pacific States - EU Joint Parliamentary Assembly, called for the European Commission to work to extend the mandate of the AU peacekeeping force until a UN force can be deployed. She also urged the EU to ensure the necessary funding was available to sustain the force.

She said: "The EU's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, must make urgent representations to the Sudanese and to the African Union to ensure that the mandate of the AU can be extended until such a time as a UN force can be deployed.

AU must accept deal - EU, UK warn of dire consequences

AFP report 4 Sep via CFD says African Union Must Accept Deal. Excerpt:

European Union spokesman Amadeu Altafaj Tardio warned of dire consequences if the 7,000 African Union peacekeepers are made to pull out before a U.N. force can take over.

"There would be a very difficult scenario," Altafaj Tardio said in a telephone interview. "We need a stronger force on the ground to ensure security. It is crucial to reach an agreement with the Sudanese before that deadline."

Britain's Foreign Office warned Monday that "there could potentially be significant humanitarian repercussion if this (UN) force is not in place. It looks clear to us that there is a significant buildup of the Sudan government military in Darfur."

12th aid worker killed in Darfur

IRC statement 4 Sep 2006 via ReliefWeb

The International Rescue Committee is saddened to report the death of an IRC nurse during fighting in Hashaba, North Darfur, on Friday, Sept 1. The victim, a 37-year-old Sudanese national, ran the IRC's health center in Hashaba, about 100 kilometers north of El Fasher.

The health center, along with a pharmacy and guesthouse managed by the IRC, were also looted during the fighting there.

With this tragic death, the toll of humanitarian workers killed in Darfur since May rises to 12.

AU Security Council meeting 18 Sep to consider AMIS mandate

Sudan Tribune 5 Sep 2006 says Darfur mission will end in Sept, but consultations continue - AU:

African Union peace and Security Council has reiterated its decision to end the mandate of the African forces in Darfur by the end of September 2006.

AU Security Council will convene at ministerial level a meeting in New York on 18 September to consider the mandate of the African forces in Darfur.

Note, the article provides the full text of a Sep 4 press release by AU peace and Security Council on the AU mission in Darfur.

UPDATE: -- AU Darfur meeting in New York delayed -- Reuters SA 18 Sep 2006:

AU meeting to discuss the situation in Darfur, scheduled for New York on Monday, will now "possibly" take place later in the week, South Africa's Foreign Ministry said.

"The reason for the postponement is to allow AU Heads of State and Government comprising the 15-member AU Peace and Security Council, currently attending the United Nations General Assembly, to participate in the Peace and Security Council meeting," the ministry said in a statement.

South Africa said President Thabo Mbeki would represent it at the AU meeting. Sudanese President al-Bashir was also expected to attend the meeting.

Sudan says "US's strategy is regime change"

Speaking at SUNA press forum Monday, Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail, said that the UN resolution No 1706 is violating the sovereignty of the Sudan directly because it gives the responsibility of protection of the Sudanese and the borders to the international forces.

Full story Sudan Tribune 4 Sep 2006. Excerpt:

"Monitoring the borders ... protection of civilians ... creating an independent judiciary have all become the responsibility of the international forces, so what is left for the government?" he said, referring to clauses in the U.N. resolution.

"The United States has a clear strategy ... of trying to weaken this government ... or trying to change the government."

Ismail doubted the American intentions towards Sudan, saying US insisted on the issuance of the recent resolution to carry out its strategy, which aims to weaken the government.

According to Ismail many evidences lead to the US bad intentions towards Sudan: the US describes the dispute in Darfur as genocide. Washington after the issuance of UN resolution 1706 announced that no consent is required from Sudan government to deploy UN troops in Darfur; and US Administration continues to impose economic sanctions and put Sudan on the list of countries harboring terrorism.

On the other hand, the Presidential Press Secretary Mahjoub Fadl Badri added another charge against the US Administration. He said US scheme aims at breaking Sudanese unity.

Speaking to the Voice of the Arabs Radio in Cairo, Badri said US “plan aims at breaking Sudanese unity, which is a very progressive step in case the international forces were deployed in Darfur, to be able to separate the Darfur region from the rest of Sudan".

Sudan's Darfur: The next Rwanda? (The Times)

The Times September 5, 2006 - leading article:

The next Rwanda?
Arab governments must joint the West in condemning Khartoum

As his country slides back to civil war, the President of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, has denounced Western moves to intervene as a colonialist conspiracy and likened Khartoum's situation to Lebanon's a month ago. It is true that villages in Darfur are being bombed -- by Sudanese government aircraft. And it is true that troops are massing for a major offensive; these are Sudanese army troops. But what truly distinguishes this crisis from any other international emergency, and shames those leaders apparently willing to let it run its course, is genocide.

The remorseless "ethnic cleansing" of the black Sudanese tribespeople of Darfur constitutes the worst atrocity in Africa since the Rwandan genocide of 1994. At least 200,000 villagers - and possibly double that, according to credible US estimates - have been killed by government-backed Janjiwid militias. Two million survivors of their raids are homeless. A lull in the slaughter followed a peace deal brokered this year between Mr al-Bashir and one of three main rebel groupings ranged against him in Darfur. But he now appears determined to exploit the West's preoccupation with the Middle East and Afghanistan, and finish what the Janjiwid began.

The tools available to stop him do not inspire confidence. With the mandate for an ill-supplied and ineffective African Union peacekeeping force due to expire on September 30, the United Nations Security Council has approved a resolution to replace it with a far larger UN force. But diplomats made clear that that force would not be deployed without Mr al-Bashir's consent, which last week he withheld. And yesterday he insisted that the AU force could only stay on if it was not part of a larger UN deployment.

Aid agencies run ever-greater risks delivering food and medicines to Darfur, where 12 of their workers have been killed this year. Acute shortages have swelled refugee camps across the border in Chad, while those who have stayed behind are dying at an alarming rate. They may not have been shot by his army, but Mr al-Bashir is complicit in their deaths. Yet he is as unmoved by the latest UN resolution as by ten others that he has ignored during this crisis, and last week he received a senior US envoy but offered no hint of compromise.

Sudan has correctly judged that even if the UN had the stomach to attempt to send a peacekeeping force without Khartoum's consent, the logistical obstacles to deploying a multi-national force of 20,000 in a desert the size of France would prove insurmountable. Sudan will also remain impossible to isolate internationally as long as Qatar, representing the Arab League, continues to support it in the UN out of misplaced ethnic solidarity; and China continues to abstain in relevant UN votes out of fondness for Mr al-Bashir's oil reserves.

A UN meeting on Darfur is scheduled for Friday. It is not too late to reach a deal on humanitarian aid corridors; nor for the Arab League to see that defending barbarity is ultimately self-defeating. In the meantime, the next Rwanda looms.

2 students killed, 10 injured by riot police at Sudan's El Fasher University

Two students were killed on Sunday and more than 10 injured when Sudanese riot police broke up a discussion forum on achieving peace in Darfur at El Fasher University, IRIN reported today. Excerpt:

According to local observers, truckloads of armed forces surrounded the university and entered the grounds, using electric batons, tear gas and guns against the students. Dozens of students were reportedly injured and about 20 were detained.

On the same day, in an apparent show of force, a military procession of up to 50 vehicles carrying government special forces drove through El Fasher town. The vehicles proceeded to circle Abu Shouk camp for internally displaced persons on the town's outskirts with two Mi-24 helicopter gunships flying closely overhead.

African peacekeepers cannot transfer to UN, says govt

4 Sep 2006 IRIN report- excerpt:

Sudanese presidential adviser Mustafa Osman Ismail told reporters in Khartoum on Monday that the AU would have to leave the country only if it couldn't maintain its existing force.

"The AU has refused to extend its mandate beyond September 30. If they don't want to extend their mandate, they have to go," said Ismail.

AU spokesman Noureddine Mezni said he was still waiting to hear how latest developments might affect the AU mission.

"We have been following the issue through the media, but we haven't received any official notification so far," AU spokesman Noureddine Mezni told IRIN on Monday.

Rather than accepting a UN force, the Sudanese government has proposed its own protection plan, which involves deploying another 10,500 troops to "consolidate the security situation" in Darfur.

Sudan delivers one week deadline to AMIS to reject a UN mandate and accept Arab/Sudanese funding

Today, Sudan gave AMIS a week to accept a deal on their continued presence in the country or get out.

Sudan's President Bashir, gave the AU a weeks deadline to accept a deal on the AU's presence without a UN mandate.

The Sudanese government said that AU troops could stay in the country only if they reject a UN mandate and accept funding from Sudan and the Arab League.

Full story Johannesburg (AND) 4 Sep 2006.

Sudan says AU can stay in Darfur if it accepts Arab/Sudanese funding

This is interesting. Let's hope Arab League countries come up with the right level of funding. Reportedly, the current African Union force in Darfur costs one billion US dollars per annum. AP report AU Must Accept Deal on U.N. force:

Sudan said Monday that African Union peacekeepers will have to leave Darfur unless they accept a deal within a week that would effectively block a proposed U.N. force.

Sudan's Foreign Minister Ali Ahmed Kerti said the AU troops, whose formal mandate expires on Sept. 30, can only stay on in the remote, war-torn western region if they accept Arab League and Sudanese funding.

The foreign minister gave the African body a week to respond to its offer or withdraw its troops from the country, a government statement said.

European Union spokesman Amadeu Altafaj Tardio warned of dire consequences if the AU is forced to pull out before a U.N. force can take over.

"There would be a very difficult scenario," Altafaj Tardio said in a telephone interview. "We need a stronger force on the ground to ensure security. It is crucial to reach an agreement with the Sudanese before that deadline."

"There are 2.4 million internally displaced, those people will never come back to their villages unless they have security," he said.

Sudan earlier had ordered the African Union troops out by the end's month after the bloc insisted it would hand over its mandate to the United Nations, but the ultimatum apparently marked a final attempt to keep the weak African force in Darfur.

Kerti said he issued the ultimatum at a meeting Monday with the African Union representative in Khartoum, Nigerian Ambassador Baba Gana Kingibe.

"The foreign minister indicated to Kingibe that the Sudan has always advocated the presence of African force in Darfur, and sought funds for the maintenance of that presence," the statement said.

"The Arab League has offered support to cover the presence of the African Union forces after September 2006," he said.

Sudan says AU can stay in Darfur but not under UN - expelling AMIS would end implementation of DPA

The following report tells us that expelling the African Union mission in Darfur would end all implementation of the AU-brokered May peace deal for Darfur.

Sudan will allow African Union troops to remain in Darfur but only if their AU mandate was extended beyond Sep 30 and not as part of a UN force, a presidential advisor said today - Sep 4 2006 Reuters' Opheera McDoom report excerpt:

Sudan raised alarms that its turbulent west could descend into full-blown war after a Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Sunday AU troops monitoring a shaky ceasefire must leave when their mandate expired. The spokesman called the decision final.

Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail said the government was responding to the AU's stated position that it could not sustain its 7,000 troops in Darfur beyond its mandate.

"The AU has refused to extend its mandate beyond Sept. 30. If they don't want to extend their mandate, they have to go," he said.

One African diplomat said the government softened its position overnight because they realised expelling the AU would end all implementation of an AU-brokered May peace deal.

"I am sure the Foreign Ministry spokesman and others were not talking from the tops of their heads yesterday," the diplomat said.

A U.S-British backed U.N. resolution passed on Thursday, which Khartoum rejects, said more than 20,000 U.N. troops would take over peacekeeping from AU forces who have been unable to end the violence that has ravaged Darfur for 3 1/2 years.

AU troops were expected to fill the gap before the arrival of the U.N. and ultimately be absorbed into the U.N. operation according to the resolution.

Ismail said the government rejected that transition and argued the U.N. mandate's goal was "regime change".

"Sudan will not accept those troops to be transformed into part of a U.N. force," he said.

"Monitoring the borders ... protection of civilians ... creating an independent judiciary has all become the responsibility of the international forces, so what is left for the government?" he said, referring to clauses in the U.N. resolution.

"The United States has a clear strategy ... of trying to weaken this government ... or trying to change the government," Ismail told reporters.

EX REBELS DISAGREE

Washington calls the rape, pillage and murder that has forced 2.5 million from their homes in Darfur genocide and blames the government and its allied militia known locally as Janjaweed.

Khartoum rejects the charge but the International Criminal Court (ICC) is investigating alleged war crimes in Darfur, where tens of thousands of people have been killed.

Critics say Khartoum fears U.N. troops would be used to arrest officials likely to be indicted by the ICC.

Aid workers and security analysts say the violence has escalated since the peace deal signed in May by one of three negotiating rebel factions.

Former rebels who are now part of government with the dominant National Congress Party said they did not agree with the decision to ask the AU to leave.

"It is endangering the Darfur peace agreement and endangering Sudan's relations with the African and the international community," said Yasser Arman, spokesman for the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).

He said there had been no consultation on the decision with the partners in government such as the SPLM and the former Darfur rebel Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM), which recently joined government after the May deal.

"The SPLM does not want a confrontation with the international community," he added.

The EU's executive Commission called on Sudan on Monday to recognise the broad international consensus for the AU to hand over to a stronger U.N. mission, citing the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Darfur. (additional reporting by Ingrid Melander in Brussels)

Sudan's Cabinet said it would take over Darfur security

Sep 3 2006 AP report by Mohamed Saeed - via BDT. Excerpt:

The Sudanese news agency SUNA quoted President Omar al-Bashir as saying UN attempts to deploy peacekeepers was a bid by the international community to take over his country.

"The call for deployment of international forces in Darfur is part of a comprehensive conspiracy for confiscating the country's sovereignty and imposing guardianship on the Sudanese people," al-Bashir said.

State media reported the Cabinet said it would take over Darfur security, which "has improved, except for some violations perpetrated by the National Redemption Front which has refused to sign the (peace) agreement."

Rebel commander Abubakar Hamid Elnur said by satellite telephone from northern Darfur that there were many civilian casualties.

"The government is still bombing with aircraft. It is very difficult for us to protect our civilians, especially from the air," he told The Associated Press. Many civilians have fled their villages for the hills and valleys, according to the rebels.

A government armed forces spokesman denied any aerial bombing of villages in northern Darfur and described current army activities in the area as administrative operations.

"The allegation that the army used military aircraft and bombed the area is false and unfounded," said the spokesman on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

JEM rebels phone AFP from London - willing to open peace talks with Khartoum

AFP report via CFD 2 Sept 2006 - excerpt:

"We welcome this resolution which is a victory for the people of Darfur as it will put a stop to the genocide under way," the movement's spokesperson Ahmed Hussein Adam told AFP by telephone from London.

"The Movement will co-operate fully in the implementation of the resolution and calls on the international community, and particularly the United States, to continue efforts for a comprehensive political settlement."

"The Movement is ready to resume negotiations to iron out the failings which were not addressed in the Abuja process," he said referring to the talks in the Nigerian capital that led to the May deal between Khartoum and the mainstream faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement.

They want peace with Khartoum? Yeah sure, whatever.

Sudan asks AMIS to leave Darfur by Sep 30

"We are asking them to leave since they indicated that they will not be able to continue their mission," said Foreign Ministry Spokesman Jamal Ibrahim. "This is a final decision."

Full story Reuters' Opheera McDoom 3 Sept 2006 [hat tip POTP]

African Union confirms renewed fighting in Sudan's Darfur

VOA News - AU: Fighting Renewed in Sudan's Darfur Region - excerpt:

An official with the African Union peacekeeping force, reached in the the Darfuri capital of El Fasher, said six villages have been attacked.

A rebel commander in the Darfur region says several civilians have been killed and thousands more displaced.

Commander Jar El Neby is a member of the National Redemption Front, an alliance of Darfur rebels that did not sign the May 5 Darfur Peace Agreement. He told VOA that he believes the Sudanese government is trying to expand its territory in the region.

"Since three days ago, they are in the area of Um Sidir," he said. "They have burned the village of Um Sidir, and kidnapped all the villages around Um Sifir area, and killed about five civilians yesterday in Um Sidir area. Until now, I hear the sound of Antonovs in this area. "

El Neby's group and another rebel faction have refused to sign on to the accord, saying it does not grant enough political power to Darfuris, nor enough compensation to victims of the three-year war.

African Union peacekeepers in Darfur unpaid since May

Darfur villages burn as army tramples on UN peace plan - Sunday Times excerpt:

Last Friday their new uniforms filled the streets of El Fasher and foreigners were warned to stay indoors.

General Collins Ihekire, the Nigerian head of the African Union's (AU) 7,000-strong peacekeeping force, believes the perception that it is implementing an unfair peace agreement is hampering its efforts even more than a lack of resources.

"They (the rebels) are not seeing us as partners in the peace process but as legitimate targets," he said by telephone from Darfur. Two AU soldiers were killed last month in an ambush, and more attacks were expected, he added. Most of the peacekeepers had not been paid since May.

African Union received no official notice from Khartoum to leave Darfur Sep 30

Sep 2 2006 Aegis Trust media release [via ST] - excerpt:

Disturbing reports in the past 48 hours indicate that the Sudanese Government is on the point of expelling the African Union Mission from Darfur.

According to a report yesterday in London-based Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat, Sudan's Vice-President, Ali Osman Mohammed Taha, on a visit to Kordofan, stated that Khartoum had asked the AU to withdraw its troops immediately, and told them that their withdrawal should be finished by 30 September.

"Their troops are no longer required"

"We will write to all African countries with troops in Darfur," he is quoted as saying. "We thank them for their previous work, but at the same time we say that their troops are no longer required in Sudan. This is because they are trying to change into being a UN force. This clearly contradicts their original mandate. Omar Bashir himself has told the AU before that if it agreed to a UN takeover, he would ask its countries to remove their troops immediately. However, we leave the door open for the rebuilding of confidence between Khartoum and the AU if it withdraws its support for UN Resolution 1706."

Resolution 1706, passed Thursday 31 August, authorised a transferral from the AU mission in Darfur to a UN peacekeeping mission comprising 17,000 troops, on condition of Khartoum's acceptance. Khartoum immediately rejected the resolution.

Late Saturday, senior AU representatives stated that though they had seen media reports indicating Khartoum was ordering the AU mission to leave Darfur, they had received no official notification from the Government of Sudan.

Christian Science Monitor: "Quite simply, Reeves is a gadfly - a blogger with a high wattage audience"

The Christian Science Monitor's Clara Germani has a nice profile of gadfly Eric Reeves "A Wired Prospero" . [hat tip VOGP]

Juba Blog: Fictional assassination films

See Juba Blog: President Bush Assassinated!