ANALYSIS-UN envoy expulsion exposes Sudan's fragile coalition (Opheera McDoom)

Oct 26 2006 Reuters AlertNet - Opheera McDoom ANALYSIS-UN envoy expulsion exposes Sudan's fragile coalition. Excerpt:

The leader of the only one of three negotiating rebel factions to sign the Darfur peace deal, Minni Arcua Minnawi, is now the fourth-ranking official in Sudan.

But his former rebel Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) said it was not consulted about the move to expel Pronk, which has serious implications for U.N.-Sudanese relations.

"Any decision against (Pronk)... should have be done after a wider consultation within the government of national unity," said Mohamed Bashir, head of Minnawi's office.

A source close to Pronk said he was reassured by a foreign ministry official that the affair would blow over, only to be summoned by that same junior minister, Ali Karti, two days later to be given 72 hours to leave the country.

Karti, a member of Bashir's party, remains technically subordinate to Foreign Minister Lam Akol of the SPLM.

Outside government ranks, Darfur rebel leader Khalil Ibrahim said the expulsion proved the government was as dominated by the military as it was when it took over in a 1989 bloodless coup.

"This decision is one made by the army not by the government," Ibrahim told Reuters.

Bunch of gunslingers and murderers. They're all as bad as each other, except for Pronk of course.

Head-to-head: Darfur situation (BBC)

What do you think? Do you agree with Eric Reeves or Gamal Nkrumah? What should the international community do? Send your views to BBC using the link below.

See BBC's Head-to-head: Darfur situation - Gamal Nkrumah, the foreign editor of leading Egyptian newspaper, Al-Ahram, and Eric Reeves, professor at Smith College (Massachusetts) and a Sudan researcher and analyst, debate what action the international community should take over the worsening situation in Darfur. Excerpt:

Eric Reeves (MA, USA) says:

In the face of rapidly accelerating genocidal destruction in Darfur, and given the ongoing collapse of humanitarian operations in vast areas of this devastated region, the international community should issue an ultimatum to the National Islamic Front (National Congress Party) regime in Khartoum: Immediately accept the robust force stipulated in UN Security Council Resolution 1706 (31 August, 2006) or face non-consensual deployment of the forces required to protect civilians and humanitarians.

Gamal Nkrumah (Cairo, Egypt) says:

The phrase "international community" is often used as a euphemism for the United States and other Western powers' political agendas. Non-consensual deployment of foreign, non-African troops, is a non-starter.

It is an act of aggression that infringes on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Sudan.

About 7,000 African Union troops are deployed in Darfur

As stipulated by Resolution 1706, the deployment of foreign peacekeeping troops must have prior and explicit approval of the Sudanese authorities. Previous US-led military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq have aggravated the situation in the respective countries. The worse scenario is for Darfur to denigrate further into an Iraqi or Afghan quagmire.

The only way forward is to strengthen the African Union peacekeeping contingency in Darfur in both financial and logistical terms.

I agree with Gamal Nkrumah.

Expelled envoy not welcome back, says Sudan

Oct 26 2006 IOL (Mohamed Hasni) Khartoum - excerpt:

Sudan will not have any further dealings with expelled UN envoy Jan Pronk, regardless of what the United Nations may decide about his future, a senior official said Thursday.

"The decision to expel Jan Pronk is irrevocable because of positions he has taken that are incompatible with his mission in Sudan," foreign ministry spokesman Ali al-Sadek told journalists.

"It is a decision of state and of the government that is not concerned with what the United Nations decides."

Not concerned with what the 191-member state UN decides? What is wrong with these people? They sound like Saddam Hussein and his comical Minister for Information, living in cloud cuckoo land.

Despite Genocide, Life is Good in Sudan

Fola of EthnicLoft blog picks up on the good life in Sudan and its standoffishness toward the world, especially the Western world.

US asks Arab govts to reassure Khartoum on mandate of UN force for Darfur

AP report via ST 26 Oct 2006 - US's Rice confers with UN's Annan as Darfur deteriorates - excerpt:

The Sudanese leader and other top officials have said they are concerned that the U.N. force could be used to track down and arrest leaders of the Sudanese government, McCormack [Rice's spokesman] said.

"We have said that this is not the mandate of this U.N., force," he said, and the United States has asked Arab governments to reassure them on that score.

"We ask them to do that in every way that they possibly can," McCormack said.

Switzerland's Jean Ziegler calls for UN intervention in Darfur

The United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, Switzerland's Jean Ziegler, has demanded the organisation intervene in western Sudan's Darfur. - swissinfo 25 Oct 2006.

ICG's Prendergast shows frustration with slow UN action

Oct 25 2006 AFP report "US Shows Frustration with Slow UN Action" (via CFD). Excerpt:

John Prendergast, an expert at the non-governmental International Crisis Group, recently suggested that France and the United States impose a no-fly zone over Darfur and that the UN prepare "non consensual deployment" in case Khartoum persists in its refusal to accept UN peacekeepers.

Prendergast's suggestions irritated the anonymous senior US official.

"Now, I don't know who you are going to find around the world to shoot the way into Sudan. I don't know, maybe the International Crisis group or John Prendergast has an idea," the official said.

"That is the great thing about being in a think tank: You can suggest these ideas and criticize without actually having to implement the solution," he said.

Ha! Couldn't have said it better myself. Pity the US official was not named. Nicely line that - I'ved modified it for future use:

"That is the great thing about being [a non-Sudanese/non-African/non-Arab/activist/pundit/analyst/armchair critic/blogger/not on ground in Sudan] in a think tank: You can suggest these ideas and criticize without actually having to implement the solution."

Note, Mr Prendergast is featured in the video report "Searching For Jacob." See the clip online at CBS News.

US's Nastios says US would not dispatch troops to Sudan - No plan to deploy NATO forces in Darfur

Source: United Nations Country Team in Sudan
United Nations Sudan Bulletin 25 Oct 2006
Excerpt:

On 25 October, US envoy to Sudan Andrew Natsios said the US would not dispatch troops to Sudan, and there was no plan to deploy NATO forces in Darfur. Natsios said the US goal in Darfur was to improve the humanitarian situation by putting an end to the conflict there and enabling repatriation of refugees.

Sudan ready for next UN chief

Oct 25 2006 (SA) - Sudan ready for next UN chief:

Foreign minister Lam Akol was quoted as saying: "Sudan is ready to co-operate with the next UN secretary-general on the issue of Darfur within the limits of the organisation's mandate."

What arrogance. They act as if they were doing the world a favour!

FUC splinters - Analysts unsure of Chadian rebels intentions

dpa German Press Agency [via The Raw Story] Oct 25, 2006, Nairobi:

"This resurgence is not liable to prove as strong as it was in the April coup attempt," Richard Cornwell of the South-African based Institute for Strategic Studies told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

The rebel groups involved in the recent attacks have split from the United Front for Change (FUC), which attempted to bring down the government in April.

"The alliance hasn't translated into a cohesive, united rebel group," said David Mozersky, a regional analyst with the International Crisis Group.

The attempted coup on the government of President Idriss Deby in April came ahead of elections the following month that returned Deby to power after 15 years as leader.

The rebels stormed into Ndjamena with about 150 trucks mounted with machine guns, but the coup failed after the Chadian army successfully suppressed the rebellion.

The rebels' goal was to force some sort of political reform in the impoverished central African country, said Cromwell.

"They wanted to persuade the government that the time had come to negotiate and have genuinely open discussions about the country's political future."

After Deby's re-election, he organized talks with his political opponents but excluded the rebel groups.

"Deby only extended the talks to include domestic political opposition parties. There is still no channel for resolving this conflict other than fighting," Mozersky said.

The rebels may be entering these small villages near Darfur only to reassert themselves and remind Ndjamena of their presence.

"It's quite likely that what we are seeing is a way for the rebels to keep themselves on the scene. They may feel constrained to resume some sort of activity," Cornwell said.

The end of the rainy season in eastern Chad also means the rebels have regained mobility, he noted.

On Wednesday, the Chadian government accused Sudan of arming the militias, a charge it has made in the past but one that Khartoum denies.

Sudan, on the other hand, accuses Deby's government of arming the rebels in the embattled Darfur region, and in turn fuelling a conflict that has killed tens of thousands.

And while both conflicts have their own domestic origins - Darfuri rebels claiming their home region remains underdeveloped and Chadian militants opposing Deby's dictatorship - analysts say the region's violence is completely interrelated.

"The Chadian rebels are a proxy of Khartoum just as Darfuri rebels are at a certain level a proxy of N'djamena," Mozersky said.

Deby, himself a former rebel leader, deposed his predecessor Hissene Habre in 1990. Like the FUC rebels who vow to overthrow him, the president based his own rebel movement in Darfur and enjoyed backing from Khartoum.

But no matter what the rebels' next move, Deby appears to be gearing up for a fresh attack. Following the coup attempt in April, to the World Bank's dismay, Deby's government spent millions of dollars of its oil revenue on helicopters it said was necessary to combat the insurgency.

Pronk fears a major offensive is about to be unleashed as Sudanese military prepare a major mobilization in Darfur to coincide with end of Ramadan

Radio Netherlands report - Jan Pronk has no regrets - by Perro de Jong 25 Oct 2006 (Ed: To highlight a point, I've emboldened some text here]

Jan Pronk has no regrets. The UN envoy - and former Dutch cooperation development minister - was expelled from Sudan for making critical remarks about the Sudanese army in his weblog.

Some Dutch commentators thought this was rather foolish behaviour for a mediator, but the Dutch government and the United Nations still stand by him.

When asked whether a weblog is a suitable medium, Mr Pronk replied: "It's what you say, not where you say it. In my weblog I say exactly the same as I do at press conferences. I understand that what the Sudanese government objected to was my comment about the army. That was in the newspapers long ago."

Neutrality

He denies that this was abandoning his position of neutrality as a mediator in the Darfur conflict. "I had already been extremely critical. And that included the rebels themselves - for violating the ceasefire. Not all the rebel movements, just some of them. They know that, I told them quite clearly. So the UN is completely neutral and, as its representative, so am I."

He believes the real reasons for his expulsion are less obvious. "The military are still looking for a military solution. I have regularly pointed this out and they don't like it. At the moment that last thing they need is a prying busybody like me. They have been preparing a major mobilization in Darfur to coincide with the end of Ramadan. Troop concentrations are developing. Planes and soldiers from the south are being deployed to Darfur. I'm afraid a major offensive is about to be unleashed."

Consequences

Relations between Jan Pronk and the government in Khartoum have been poor for some time. And the army is a particularly sensitive subject in Sudan. The question then is whether Mr Pronk wasn't fully aware what the consequences of his criticisms would be and whether that should be regarded as a bad thing. After years of trying to get the conflict onto the agenda of the international community, Darfur is suddenly the topic of the day.

The call for a UN peacekeeping force is becoming louder. The United States has been behind sending an international force for some time, but the Sudanese government has constantly resisted the idea. So far the United Nations has allowed the African Union to carry out peacekeeping duties. The Africans could form the nucleus of an international force, according to a spokesman for the US State Department reacting to Mr Pronk's departure, but for a "robust" mission real UN troops are needed.

Timing

The UN envoy himself denies he deliberately engineered his own expulsion. The fact that his boss, Secretary General Kofi Annan, will soon be leaving the UN and a new envoy to Sudan will be chosen is just a coincidence according to Mr Pronk.

However, he does concede that the timing of his departure could have been worse: "It's good it has happened now, it gives us a chance to prevent the big offensive. We need international attention to stop the conflict escalating further."

Even if Jan Pronk never returns to Sudan at least he has succeeded in that part of his mission.

Yes, he certainly has. I can't imagine many people not supporting him or his position. No matter what Khartoum say, Mr Pronk is still UN SRSG for Sudan - whether he is there or not. I hope he keeps on blogging. Looking forward to reading his next blog entry.

CBS News Video: Searching For Jacob in Darfur

See CBS News video report online Searching For Jacob.

Drima of The Sudanese Thinker reviews CBS "60 Minutes" Piece on Darfur & Bush's Relationship With Bashir; and explains the terrible Darfur war is more complex than the simple 'Darfur is a genocide that needs to be stopped': people must know the root causes ie. water shortage, tribalism and huge corruption by the dictatorial NCP.

Funding foils bid for more AU troops in Darfur

Reuters report by Andrew Cawthorne (via Business Day) 25 Oct 2006:

The African Union (AU) was far from adding 4000 troops to its stretched Darfur force because of a lack of funds, peace and security director Geofrey Mugumya said yesterday.

African states were willing to contribute more troops to the union's controversial 7000-strong force in Sudan, but lacked the funds needed to do so, Mugumya said in Addis Ababa yesterday.

He said pledges of financial support were not materialising -- citing the Arab League's nonpayment of a pledged $50m.

"Sometimes you get promises (of funds), but they are not translated into reality," he said at the union's headquarters in Ethiopia.

"African countries are willing to give any amount of troops for peacekeeping ... (but) I'm telling you, that might be impossible," Mugumya said.

The union's troop expansion was seen by diplomats as a stop-gap before a possible mission transfer to United Nations (UN) troops. Sudan is strongly opposed to a UN presence in Darfur, saying such a deployment could be a precursor to regime change.

The conflict has killed an estimated 200000 people and displaced another 2,5-million since 2003.

Despite Khartoum's opposition to UN entry after the AU mission's mandate ends on December 31, the union is struggling to rotate battalions, let alone add the planned six more at a cost of about $80m.

Mugumya was more upbeat, however, about the likelihood of a Ugandan-led African peacekeeping mission in Somalia. It would be tasked with bolstering an interim government challenged by the rise of powerful Islamists.

"Ugandan forces are ready and will go if the arms embargo is lifted or modified," he said. He said the UN Security Council was meeting next month to consider such a change - a prerequisite for a Somali intervention.

The Mogadishu-based Islamists have threatened to fight foreign troops, and al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has said such intervention would justify jihad (holy war).

But Mugumya insisted that an African force would calm the situation, rather than inflame it.

Sudan 'is arming rebels' in Chad (BBC)

Oct 25 2006 BBC report - excerpt:

Sudan's government is arming rebels in Chad, the government has alleged amid reports that rebels are moving towards the Chadian capital, N'Djamena.

Chad's foreign minister said the proof was the firing of a missile at a French reconnaissance plane in the east.

The rebels began their offensive in the east at the weekend but are now said to be near the central town of Mongo.

A BBC correspondent in N'Djamena says tanks are stationed in key areas, such as outside the presidential palace.

Troops have been recalled to base despite the Muslim holiday of Eid - the biggest festival of the year in Chad.

The BBC's Stephanie Hancock in Chad says the outskirts of the capital are said to have been heavily fortified with government troops, but she says reports of the rebels' location are changing almost hour by hour.

Rapid advance

"These rebels entered Chad from Sudan and they could only have procured this type of military equipment within the sight of and with the knowledge of the Sudanese authorities. Sudan cannot deny it," Chadian Foreign Minister Ahmar Allami told AFP news agency.

GUARDIAN'S JONATHAN STEELE/SUDANESE PRESIDENT OMAR HASSAN AL-BASHIR INTERVIEW: Sudan would allow doubling of Darfur force

Click here to visit Guardian Unlimited 25 Oct 2006 and read Full transcript of Jonathan Steele's interview with the Sudanese president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir.

Related reports [more to be added here later]

Oct 25 2006 Sudan Tribune has published a reprint of Jonathan Steele's report, under a different title: Sudan's president is willing to accept more AU forces.

Oct 25 2006 Reuters via IOL - Sudan open to peacekeepers under AU's control:

Sudan would be open to more peacekeepers with a beefed up mandate to police Darfur as long as the force remains under African Union (AU) control, Sudan's president Omar Hassan al-Bashir told a British newspaper.

Bashir, who has resisted international pressure to allow UN peacekeepers to take over from the AU mission, told the Guardian in an interview that he would allow the European Union or the United Nations to provide logistical support.

Asked if the AU could double its troop strength to 20 000, Bashir said: "We have no objection to the AU increasing its troops, strengthening its mandate, or receiving logistical support from the EU, the UN or the Arab League for that matter, but this must of course be done in consultation with the government of national unity."

Bashir: Sudan has no objection to more AU troops, strengthening mandate, or receiving logistical support from EU, UN or AL

Sudan's President Bashir has no objection to more troops and a stronger AMIS mandate with logistical support from EU, UN, AL, and says there would be "integrated police units" to protect and help IDPs return home. See Angola Press news report entitled ENGLAND: Sudan open to AU peacekeepers increase, refusing UN troops: president:

LONDON, 10/25 - Sudan has "no objection" to the increase of the number of African Union (AU) peacekeepers in the troubled Darfur region, but will refuse any UN troops, warning that such a move would become "part of the conflict."

Sudan has "no objection to the AU increasing its troops, strengthening its mandate, or receiving logistical support from the EU, the UN, or the Arab League for that matter," Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed El-Bashir said in an interview published in The Guardian on Wednesday.

However, the president said that foreign troops imposed by the United Nations in Darfur could lead to "such troops becoming the target of attacks and part of the conflict, not the solution."

He also urged Britain and the United States to stop "applying pressure (on Sudan) the way it is being done now -- to the wrong party at the wrong time."

The UN Security Council adopted a resolution on Aug. 31 calling for the deployment of more than 20,000 international peacekeepers to replace the underfunded 7,800 AU forces in Darfur.

But the Sudanese government has rejected the mission transfer, saying it was a violation of Sudan's sovereignty and an effort by the West to re-colonize the African oil producing country.

Sudan, a Muslim-dominated nation with nearly 40 percent of its population Arabs, is located in north Africa and is a member state of both the pan-Arab forum and the African Union.

In Sudan's western region of Darfur, rebel groups took up arms against the government in early 2003, accusing Khartoum of marginalizing the region.

Last month, the AU Peace and Security Council decided to extend the mandate of the 7,800-strong AU forces in Darfur to Dec. 31, calling on Arab countries and the international community to provide necessary help for the forces.

The president also noted that there would be "integrated police units" to protect the displaced people affected by the conflict, and to help them to return home.

Pronk: Sudanese military trampling over DPA and still trying to gain military victory

Speaking from his native Netherlands, Mr Pronk said Sudan had broken its own peace agreement in Darfur. - BBC
- - -

Oct 25 2006 IOL by Alexandra Hudson, Amsterdam - Pronk stands firm on Sudan comments. Excerpt:

Top United Nations envoy Jan Pronk said on Tuesday that he had no regrets about comments he made concerning the situation in Darfur which led to his expulsion from Sudan, and said he hoped he could return to the country.

"I am still the special envoy to Sudan - just now not in Sudan itself," he told Dutch radio station BNR Nieuwsradio in his first interview since leaving Khartoum.

Pronk told BNR the information was widely available and it was not the weblog itself that lay behind his expulsion.

"The main thing is that a peace accord was signed in Darfur but the military are trampling all over it and are still trying to gain a military victory," he said.

"I have been trying constantly over the last months to expose this and this doesn't suit them."

Asked whether he should have been more diplomatic, Pronk replied: "I was extremely careful".

Pronk said he had kept to three rules in his work - never to talk about conversations, to be balanced and fair, and not to criticise individuals.

The last days had been nerve-racking, he said, while the Sudanese government weighed whether to expel him.

Barbarians.



In this file picture, U.N. envoy Jan Pronk answers questions after a meeting of the U.N. Security Council where he described the deteriorating security situation in southern Sudan and in the country's western Darfur region, at the United Nations, in New York, March 21, 2006. Sudan on Sunday ordered Pronk to leave the country within three days following comments he made that the army's morale was low after suffering two major defeats in the violent Darfur region. (Chip East/Reuters)

Pronk said he had offended elements in Sudanese govt "who continue to seek a military solution and don't want anybody peering over their shoulders"

Not sure if it is my imagination but President Bashir is starting to sound unhinged. Oct 25 2006 AP report via Guardian - Sudan President Criticizes Foreign Media. Excerpt:

Sudan's president lashed out Tuesday at foreign media and relief groups operating in violence-plagued Darfur, implying that aid organizations serving the region's 2.5 million displaced people could face expulsion.

Sudan's government was working to "rid (refugee) camps of those exploiting the suffering of the people, those suspicious organizations who are part of a series of conspiracies," the official news agency quoted al-Bashir as saying during a speech at the start of the Muslim Eid al-Fitr holiday.

"We have promised before God not to let Darfurians' suffering be a pretext for foreign intervention or a subject for hostile media," al-Bashir said according to SUNA.

In Amsterdam, Pronk said Tuesday he was merely repeating what he had read in a local newspaper.

"I didn't do anything but repeat an open secret ... as a call to the rebels: You have won twice now. You'll lose the third time. So now you must abide by the cease-fire, by the peace accord. Don't attack," Pronk told the Dutch state broadcaster NOS.

Pronk said he had offended elements within the Sudanese government "who continue to seek a military solution and don't want anybody peering over their shoulders."

Pronk stopped in the Netherlands, his home country, en route to New York to consult with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Annan has said he still has full confidence in Pronk, the U.N.'s special representative in Sudan for more than two years.

Associated Press Writer Toby Sterling contributed to this report from Amsterdam.

Sudanese Army officials threatened UN SRSG Pronk with expulsion weeks ago

Oct 24 2006 Washington Times report by Betsy Pisik and Anton Foek [via CFD] - excerpt:

Jan Pronk, the senior U.N. envoy to Sudan, said in a telephone interview that he sensed Khartoum was getting ready to expel him weeks before an announcement Sunday that he had been given three days to leave Sudan because of remarks on his personal Web site.

Mr. Pronk said in the interview that he was not surprised by the edict.

"During the past few weeks it was obvious they had something in mind," he said, noting that Sudanese Army officials had threatened him with expulsion weeks ago after he had published information or opinions the government found objectionable.

He also said the Sudanese government had "put a prize on my head through a student newspaper last year. That was after I proposed replacing the African peacekeepers in Darfur with U.N. forces."

African Union 'saddened' by UN envoy's expulsion

The African Union President, Alpha Oumar Konare, said he was "saddened" by the Sudanese government's decision to expel the UN special envoy Jan Pronk from the country.

In a note published today, Konare underlines the importance of Pronk's work "in favor of security and human rights, and the constant efforts for the promotion of reconciliation and the achievement of lasting peace in Sudan". - MISNA via Spero 24 Oct 2006.