Monday, January 12, 2009

Kony's Ugandan LRA is a well-ordered fighting force, whose senior officers have been trained by Sudan, Iran and Iraq

Defectors held in the Ugandan capital Kampala say Kony – who claims to receive his instructions directly from God – had no real intention of laying down his weapons. Instead he used the ceasefire to rearm, recruit and stockpile food donated by well-meaning charities and supporters abroad.

For the first time they have given an insight into a well-ordered fighting force, whose senior officers have been trained by Sudan, Iran and Iraq.

Read more in the following LRA feature from Doruma, Democratic Republic of Congo by ROB CRILLY. On 16 December 2008, the day that a cut down version of the feature appeared in The Times, Rob kindly emailed me the full 2,000 word piece to use on my blog, along with a link to photographer Kate Holt's website kateholt.com.

As a backgrounder, I am prefacing the piece with this excerpt from Rob's blog post at From The Frontline December 10, 2008:
Earlier this year photographer Kate Holt and I chartered a plane to fly from Dungu, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, to the tiny village of Doruma which was recovering from repeated attacks by the Lord’s Resistance Army. We found people living in fear of the next assault, as LRA raiding parties roamed the jungle looking for sex slaves, porters and fighters.

We uncovered evidence that Joseph Kony was cynically using a halt in hostilities - called to allow peace talks - in order to rearm, recruit and reorganise. With food distributed by aid agencies and satphones delivered by the Ugandan diaspora, his fighting force was more efficient that ever. And one his key aides, a recent defector, told us that Kony would never sign up to peace.
With many thanks to Rob, here is the feature and photos by Kate Holt.

Rob Crilly

ROB CRILLY
Doruma, Democratic Republic of Congo

FOR eight days Raymond Kpiolebeyo was marched at gunpoint through the steaming Congolese jungle, not knowing whether he would live or die. For six nights he slept with eight other prisoners pinned under a plastic sheet weighted down with bags and stones to prevent escape. Their sweat condensed on the sheeting inches above their faces before dripping back and turning their plastic prison into a stinking, choking sauna.

He was a prisoner of the Lord’s Resistance Army, a cult-like band of brutal commanders and their brutalised child soldiers.

“They told us that if one of use tried to escape we would all be shot,” said Raymond, a 28-year-old teacher from the town of Doruma, close to the border with South Sudan.

He had been captured by a raiding party looking for porters, sex slaves and soldiers to continue the LRA’s 20-year struggle to overthrow the Ugandan government.

Yet the war is supposed to be over. After two years of negotiations, the LRA’s reclusive leader, Joseph Kony, was expected to sign a final peace deal in April. He failed to show up and his aides first said he was suffering from diarrhoea before announcing that he would be not be signing at all.

Negotiators still hold out hope that a war that forced two million people into squalid aid camps is close to an end. Many of the war’s victims in northern Uganda have slowly begun leaving the sprawling shack cities where one generation was born and another died.

But in the border towns of the Democratic Republic of Congo a different picture emerges, one where slaving parties slog through the dense jungle snatching children barely big enough to carry AK-47 rifles. Mothers keep children close to their simple homes of mud and thatch.

And defectors held in the Ugandan capital Kampala say Kony – who claims to receive his instructions directly from God – had no real intention of laying down his weapons. Instead he used the ceasefire to rearm, recruit and stockpile food donated by well-meaning charities and supporters abroad.

For the first time they have given an insight into a well-ordered fighting force, whose senior officers have been trained by Sudan, Iran and Iraq.

This year his fighters have roamed through Southern Sudan, the Central African Republic and the DRC kidnapping more than 300 children, and turning a Ugandan war into a regional conflict.

After walking 10 hours a day for six days with a sack on his back and another balanced on his head, Raymond arrived at a well-ordered camp filled with children – some the offspring of women kept by commanders while others were being trained with guns.

“They were mobile. All the time they were organising,” he said, sitting in the office of Doruma school where he teaches primary age children. “Some were leaving for other villages and others were arriving.”

Kony is thought to have settled in the DRC two years ago, disappearing deep into Garamba National Park far in the north-east of the country. It was part of a gentlemen’s agreement with the Congolese government: he was offered a safe haven from which to begin seeking peace; in return his troops would steer clear of locals.

Raymond said the camp was a bustling town. Thatched huts stood in neat rows, while labourers farmed sweet potato, maize and beans.

At night a solar-powered television set would be brought out and the young soldiers would cheer as they watched noisy American war films. Anything starring Chuck Norris was a big hit.

After six nights living in Kony’s jungle headquarters Raymond had the chance of escape.

He was woken by a tap on the head from another prisoner. It was the signal to leave. The two tiptoed over sleeping soldiers before breaking for the thick bush around the camp.

He was one of the lucky ones. Five families in Doruma have had children snatched this year with little hope of seeing them returned.

Sitting on a low bamboo bench in the shade of a mango tree Christine Kutiote described how her 13-year-old niece, Marie, was taken as she tried to cross the river for a visit.

Now, she keeps her own four children close to home.

“I’m a Christian and I pray for them and that security will get better,” she said in the local Zande language, as a priest translated her words into French.

Her low, simple home told a different story. Its mud walls bore a pattern of white spots used by witchdoctors to ward off evil. They have little else to protect them. There is no army, the handful of police officers is unarmed and help can only arrive by plane or motorcycle, bumping for six hours along swampy tracks from Dungu, where the United Nations has a base.

Villagers are trickling in from the surrounding region seeking security but even Dungu offers little protection.

Burned-out buildings bear the scars of previous attacks by Kony’s followers. A hospital has few drugs and no anaesthetic.

This is a region well used to conflict. Uganda, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Angola all sent soldiers and support for a five-year civil war that claimed at least three million lives by the time it ended in 2002. Once again the tropical jungle here is being used for someone else’s war.

Governments in the region are slowly waking up the problem. Later this month the Congolese army will deploy 1000 soldiers to Dungu.

A secret intelligence document compiled by the United Nations mission to the DRC, known as Monuc, spells out the scale of the threat. It says the LRA cynically used the peace talks to organise itself into a more effective fighting force. The 670-strong band of fighters now has more than 150 satellite telephones, many bought with cash meant to aid communications during the talks.

“Simply put, Kony now has the ability to divide his forces into very simple groups and to reassemble them at will. When put together with his proven mastery of bush warfare, this gives him new potency within his area of operations,” says the report.

They were given tons of food by a charity, Caritas Uganda, to discourage the looting of villages, and sacks of dollars by Southern Sudan’s new leaders, whom they once fought.

Kony is stronger than ever, concludes the report: “Recent abduction patterns suggest that he is now in the process of perfecting the new skill of recruiting and controlling an international force of his own.”

Kony has long been something of an enigma. His use of child soldiers, tight control over his lieutenants and frequent movement meant few details of his life leaked out of the jungle. Commentators had to join the dots between a handful of disputed facts to form a fuller impression.

He was the altar boy who grew up to be a guerrilla leader. He was the wizard who used magic to protect his brainwashed adherents. And he was the deluded man from the bush who wanted to rule Uganda according to the 10 Commandments.

When he emerged blinking into the media glare two years ago for a meeting with the United Nations most senior humanitarian official, Jan Egeland, his wild, staring eyes and rambling words suggested a man with little grasp on reality.

Yet those who know him best say the simple picture of a crazed, self-proclaimed prophet is far from the mark.

“To describe him is very difficult for me. He is not mad,” said Patrick Opiyo Makasi, who was Kony’s director of operations until last year when he simply walked out of the jungle. “But he is a religious man. All the time he is talking about God. Every time he keeps calling many people to teach them about the legends and about God. Mostly it is what he is talking about and that is how he leads people.”

Colonel Makasi tells his story in soft, polite tones stumbling over the English language which he stopped learning when he was snatched from his home in Gulu, northern Uganda, at the age of 12. He was handed a Kalashnikov rifle and his school lessons were replaced by in by instruction in anti-tank mines, surface-to-air missiles and machine guns.

During the next 20 years he rose to become one of Kony’s must trusted confidantes.

Back then he was only a frightened little boy, missing his father and mother. His fellow child soldiers became his family and the process of brainwashing began.

“We stayed together and became like family. Even those who were in the bush were like your brothers,” he said in a non-descript café in a Kampala suburb, his words monitored by a government minder. “Because you are young you see some commanders like fathers. Things are happening fast and you need the others to help you. You follow what the commander says because there is no-one else to listen to.”

He impressed his superiors, eventually being given the nickname Makasi. He only learned later that the word means “difficult to break” in the Congolese language Lingala.

He insisted civilians were not his target. He waged war on the Ugandan People’s Defence Force, he said.

Yet the LRA has always needed civilians, stealing food, children and women at will.

Captured children were forced to beat escapees until they died. Once their hands were stained with blood they were told they could never leave – they would be killed by the UPDF.

Anyone suspected of badmouthing Kony had their lips sliced from their face; anyone caught riding a bicycle was liable to have their legs cut off for fear cyclists would raise the alarm as the LRA approached.

The abuses earned Kony the title of Africa’s most wanted man. The International Criminal Court in the Hague issued arrest warrants against Kony and four senior commanders in 2005.

A year ago Makasi simply strolled out of Kony’s camp, knowing that no-one would suspect the LRA’s director of operations of defecting. A day earlier Kony had murdered Vincent Otti, the LRA’s second-in-command, and Makasi knew the death of a key negotiator meant peace talks hosted by South Sudan were doomed.

Kony would never emerge from the bush he told senior commanders, and was becoming increasingly paranoid that he would face the death penalty for his crimes.

“He said the ICC was a very bad thing and if he went to the Hague he would die,” said Makasi.

For five days he struggled through the thick bush, skirting around lions, elephants and buffalo before arriving in Dungu.

He brought with him details of a staggering array of weaponry supplied by the Sudanese government in Khartoum, who once used the LRA as a proxy army in a doomed attempt to put down southern rebels.

Makasi said the LRA was given crates of AK-47s, mines, heavy machine guns and even surface-to-air missiles by the Sudanese armed forces.

“I know that because we were staying with them around their camp and we were the ones who would collect them from their lorry,” he said.

It took Makasi’s comrades eight months to bury the booty in caches dotted across Southern Sudan. They are now being excavated as Kony returns to war.

Makasi said senior officers also used to visit Khartoum for instruction. Some were flown on to Iran and Iraq to learn leadership skills, tactics and training on new weapons.

For all his bizarre beliefs and brutish tactics, analysts now believe Kony is acting with the rational behaviour of a cornered man.

“Political theorists have an expression ‘gambling for resurrection’ and that seems to be what he is doing,” said a military source. “He still thinks he can become president of Uganda, running the country as some sort of theocracy so it seems as if he is digging in.”

For Makasi though the war is over. Today he is part-prisoner, part-guest of the Ugandan government which he fought for two decades.

He said he wanted to continue his education and find work helping people. Something normal after a life lived in Kony’s alternative reality. He knows the LRA conducted staggering acts of brutality yet cannot quite bring himself to admit responsibility.

“I cannot say sorry because it was not my hope that my life was like this,” he said. “I was taken and forced to fight. It was not my will.”
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Here is a copy of the cut down version

From The Times
December 16, 2008

Lord's Resistance Army uses truce to rearm and spread fear in Uganda

Once seen as a ragtag brigade, the guerrilla force that claims divine leadership is organised and ready to renew fighting

Congo Durama 1

Christine Kutiote, whose niece was abducted by the LRA in March, with her remaining children at her home in the north east of the DRC (Kate Holt/eyevine)

Rob Crilly

For eight days Raymond Kpiolebeyo was marched at gunpoint through the Congolese jungle, not knowing whether he would live or die. At night he slept with eight other prisoners, pinned under a plastic sheet weighted down with bags and stones to prevent escape. Their sweat condensed on the sheeting, inches above their faces, before dripping back and turning their plastic prison into a stinking, choking sauna.

He was a prisoner of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), a band of pitiless commanders and their brutalised child soldiers. “They told us that if one of us tried to escape we would all be shot,” said Raymond, 28, a teacher from Doruma, close to the border with southern Sudan. He had been captured by a raiding party looking for porters, sex slaves and soldiers to continue the LRA's 20-year struggle to overthrow the Ugandan Government.

His experience deep in the bush and interviews with one of the LRA's most senior defectors offer an extraordinary insight into the workings of the world's most bizarre guerrilla movement. The LRA is now in the world spotlight, as southern Sudan, Congo and Uganda have mounted joint operations to force it to negotiate or, failing that, wipe it out

This war is supposed to be over. After two years of negotiations, Joseph Kony, the LRA's reclusive leader, was expected to sign a peace deal in April. He failed to show up; his aides said that he was suffering from diarrhoea, before announcing that he would not be signing at all.

Negotiators still hope that a war that has forced two million people into squalid aid camps is close to an end. Many of its victims in northern Uganda have slowly begun leaving the sprawling shack cities where one generation was born and another died.

The border towns of the Democratic Republic of Congo tell a different story; one where slaving parties slog through the jungle, snatching children barely big enough to carry AK47 rifles. In the past few months an estimated 75,000 people have been forced from their homes in a fresh wave of attacks.

Defectors in Kampala, the Ugandan capital, say that General Kony - who claims to receive his instructions directly from God - never had any intention of laying down his weapons. Instead, he used the ceasefire to rearm, recruit and stockpile food donated by well-meaning charities and supporters abroad.

For the first time they have described a well-ordered fighting force, whose senior officers have been trained by Sudan, Iran and Iraq.

This year his fighters have roamed through southern Sudan, the Central African Republic and Congo, kidnapping more than 300 children and turning a Ugandan war into a regional conflict.

After walking for ten hours a day for six days with a sack on his back and another balanced on his head, Raymond arrived at a camp filled with children. “They were mobile. All the time they were organising,” he said, sitting in the office of Doruma school where he teaches primary-age children. “Some were leaving for other villages and others were arriving.”

General Kony is thought to have settled in Congo two years ago, disappearing into Garamba National Park in the far northeast of the country. It was part of a gentlemen's agreement with the Congolese Government: he was offered a safe haven from which to begin seeking peace, and in return his troops would stay away from locals.

Raymond said that the camp was a bustling town. Thatched huts stood in neat rows; labourers farmed sweet potato, maize and beans. At night a solar-powered television would be brought out and the young soldiers would cheer as they watched noisy American war films. Anything starring Chuck Norris was a big hit.

After six nights in General Kony's jungle headquarters Raymond had the chance of escape. He was woken by a tap on the head from another prisoner. It was the signal to leave. The two tiptoed over sleeping soldiers before breaking for the thick bush around the camp.

He was lucky to escape the LRA. Others have not been so fortunate.

Sitting on a low bamboo bench in the shade of a mango tree in Doruma, Christine Kutiote described how her 13-year-old niece, Marie, was taken as she tried to cross the river for a visit.Now, she keeps her own four children close to home.

“I'm a Christian and I pray for them and that security will get better,” she said. But her simple home told a different story. Its mud walls bore a pattern of white spots used by witchdoctors to ward off evil.

This is a region used to conflict. Uganda, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Angola all sent troops for a five-year war that claimed at least three million lives by its end in 2002. Once again the Congolese jungle is being used for someone else's war.

An intelligence document compiled by the United Nations mission to Congo, known as Monuc, spells out the scale of the threat. It says that the LRA cynically used the peace talks to organise itself into a regional fighting force. The 670-strong band of fighters now has more than 150 satellite telephones, many bought with cash meant to aid communications during the talks. “Simply put, Kony now has the ability to divide his forces into very simple groups and to reassemble them at will,” the report says. “When put together with his proven mastery of bush warfare, this gives him new potency within his area of operations.”

They were given tonnes of food by a charity, Caritas Uganda, to discourage the looting of villages, and fistfuls of dollars by southern Sudan's new leaders, whom they once fought.

General Kony is stronger than ever, the report concludes: “Recent abduction patterns suggest that he is now in the process of perfecting the new skill of recruiting and controlling an international force of his own.”

The general has long been an enigma. His use of child soldiers, tight control over his lieutenants and frequent movement mean that little is known of his life.

He was the altar boy who grew up to be a guerrilla leader. He was the wizard who used magic to protect his brainwashed adherents. And he was the deluded man from the bush who wanted to rule Uganda according to the Ten Commandments.

Yet those who know him best say that the picture of a crazed, self-proclaimed prophet is far from the mark. “To describe him is very difficult for me. He is not mad,” said Patrick Opiyo Makasi, who was General Kony's director of operations until last year when he walked out of the jungle. “But he is a religious man. All the time he is talking about God. Every time he keeps calling many people to teach them about the legends and about God. That is how he leads people.”

Colonel Makasi was snatched from his home in Gulu, northern Uganda, at the age of 12. He was handed a Kalashnikov and his school lessons were replaced by instruction in anti-tank mines, surface-to-air missiles and machineguns. Over the next 20 years he rose to become one of General Kony's most trusted confidants.

Then, a year ago, Colonel Makasi strolled out of the Kony's camp, knowing that no one would suspect the LRA's director of operations of defecting. A day earlier General Kony had murdered Vincent Otti, the LRA's second-in-command. Any chance of peace was finished.

Colonel Makasi brought with him details of an array of weaponry supplied by the Sudanese Government in Khartoum, which once used the LRA as a proxy army in a doomed attempt to put down southern rebels. The LRA had been given crates of AK47s, mines, heavy machineguns and even surface-to-air missiles.

The colonel's comrades spent eight months burying the booty in caches dotted across southern Sudan. They are now being excavated as General Kony returns to war. Senior officers also used to visit Khartoum for instruction, he said. Some were flown on to Iran and Iraq to learn leadership skills, tactics and training for new weapons.

Now the general is displaying the behaviour of a cornered man. “He still thinks he can become President of Uganda, running the country as some sort of theocracy, so it seems as if he is digging in,” a military source said.

Africa's most bizarre and brutal war seems no closer to a conclusion.

Congo Durama 2

Photo: Raymond Kpiolebeyo, a primary school teacher who was abducted by the LRA but managed to escape (Kate Holt/eyevine)

Congo Durama 3

Photo: Patrick Opio Makas. A former LRA commander, he deserted after being abducted when he was just 12 years old (Kate Holt/eyevine)

Congo Durama 4

Photo: A young boy sits crying on a bed while his mother undergoes a caesarian operation in the hospital in Dungu. The boy and his mother travelled 100 km to get to the nearest hospital (Kate Holt/eyevine)

Congo Durama 5

Photo: An old woman lies dying surrounded by family in the hospital in Dungu. Aid organisations withdrew from the region because of frequent attacks and abductions carried out by the LRA (Kate Holt/eyevine)

Have Your Say - A reader's comment

"Africa's most bizarre and brutal war seems no closer to a conclusion."
Indeed, without the involvement of the Khartoum regime in both times of peace and war; this enigma would continue probably unabbated for a while. I thought regional effort would involve the Bashir's Sudan as well.
BOB ACELLAM, HOIMA, UGANDA

Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
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Rob Crilly is a freelance journalist writing about Africa for The Times, The Irish Times, The Daily Mail, The Scotsman and The Christian Science Monitor from his base in Nairobi. Currently, after spending Christmas in Somalia and seeing in the new year on a Mexican safari while helping to build an earthbag house, Rob is travelling in the USA and writing a book about the war in Darfur, Western Sudan.

Some posts at Rob's blog From The Frontline'
11/12/08: Who'd Have Thought It? Certainly not Tony Blair, Paul Kagame’s new best friend and adviser, who has said Rwanda does not control Laurent Nkunda and his rebel army.

15/12/08: So my brief guide to African beers appeared in The Times this morning. Crilly's Cool Ones...

16/12/08: Finding Peace in Northern Uganda, Southern Sudan, Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic

21/12/08: My African Predictions for 2009
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Further reading

Moonlight in Dungu, N.E. DR Congo

Photo: Two young children stand outside their hut in the moonlight in Dungu, in North Eastern DR Congo, on 19 June, 2008. (Kate Holt) Ref. Sudan Watch 14 Dec 2008: Govts of Uganda, Sudan and DR Congo today launch joint offensive against Uganda LRA rebels in DRC, Uganda says.
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DR Congo: Dungu, Orientale Province Situation Report No. 4
From United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) 29 Dec 2008 - excerpt:
According to unsubstantiated information, the LRA controls seven villages around Doruma: Batande (7km North East of Doruma), Manzagala (5km North East of Doruma), Mabando (7km of North East of Doruma), Bagbugu (8km South East of Doruma), Nakatilikpa (12km East of Doruma), Nagengwa (8km North East of Doruma) and Natulugbu (6km North of Doruma). The population of these villages is moving towards Watsa, Banda and Ango (Bas Uélé).
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(Cross posted today to this site's sister blogs Congo Watch and Uganda Watch)

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Sudan security chief warns Westerners of attacks - Nafie Ali Nafie says ICC move "aims at toppling the Sudanese Government"

Sudan's security chief has warned foreigners that "outlaws" might target them if President Omar Hassan al-Bashir was indicted for war crimes, state media reported on Sunday.

Westerners could be targets post ICC warrant: Sudan

Photo: Salah Gosh (center) during the meeting with media figures January 10, 2009 (Sudanese Media Center)

Sudan's National Security director Salah Gosh was quoted on Saturday as saying his agents had been in touch with militant organisations in Sudan but he stopped short of accusing Islamic extremists of planning the attacks.

"He highlights he could not predict what kind of reaction outlaws could undertake if ICC issues a resolution. He suspects they may possibly target some aliens," the Sudanese Media Centre quoted Gosh as telling a meeting of senior newspaper editors.

His words were the most specific warning yet that foreigners and foreign organisations could bare the brunt of public anger after the ICC ruling, which is expected this month.

Source: Reuters report by Andrew Heavens in Khartoum Sunday 11 January 2009 - further excerpt:
Sudan security chief warns foreigners of attacks

National Security director Salah Gosh's statement is the latest of a series of warnings from government figures, who have also accused the United States, Britain and France of using the court to force concessions out of Khartoum.

"He highlights he could not predict what kind of reaction outlaws could undertake if ICC issues a resolution. He suspects they may possibly target some aliens," the Sudanese Media Centre quoted Gosh as telling a meeting of senior newspaper editors.

Western embassies and U.N. bases in Khartoum have increased security in recent months. The United States has urged its citizens in Sudan to keep a low profile.

Sudan's state Suna news agency reported that Gosh accused the ICC's chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo of being a "political activist" against Sudan and said the court's decision would be "political and not legal".

Sudan's state newspaper, Sudan Vision, quoted presidential assistant Nafie Ali Nafie as saying the ICC move "aims at toppling the Sudanese Government".

And presidential adviser Ghazi Salaheddin was quoted as saying the government had worked out "a plan ... to confront the ICC", without giving further details.

Last week, a senior official at Sudan's foreign ministry said an arrest warrant against Bashir would encourage rebels in Darfur to launch new attacks on cities and oil fields. (Editing by Elizabeth Piper)
----

From Sudan Tribune Saturday 10 January 2009 (Khartoum) - Westerners could be targets post ICC warrant: Sudan - excerpt:
The top security official in Sudan warned that an arrest warrant for president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir may make western nations targeted by radical groups in the country.

Salah Gosh, the head of Sudan’s National Security and Intelligence Service told a group of reporters that he expects security breaches by government and non-government parties if Al-Bashir is indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

“All options are open. We cannot predict what will happen but we will work on securing the country” Gosh said however he rejected reports that Al-Qaeda group has a presence in Sudan.

“Al-Qaeda is not an organization but an ideology. The ideology cannot be beaten by a gun and measures” he added.

On relationship with other Security bureaus Gosh said that their cooperation with the CIA is “technical” and not political.

“They [CIA] cannot impose anything on us” he stressed.

In 2007 the Los Angeles Times revealed that Sudan has secretly worked with the CIA to spy on the insurgency in Iraq, an example of how the U.S. has continued to cooperate with the Sudanese regime even while condemning its suspected role in the killing of tens of thousands of civilians in Darfur.

The U.S.-Sudan relationship goes beyond Iraq. Sudan has helped the United States track the turmoil in Somalia. Sudanese intelligence service has helped the US to attack the Islamic Courts positions in Somalia and to locate Al Qaeda suspects hiding there.

Sudan acknowledges cooperation with CIA in the Horn of Africa but denied any work in Iraq.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

JEM planning to attack Sudanese cities and oil fields on "ICC day" - Sudan sees JEM forces moving across North Darfur & bombs area

JEM commander Suleiman Sandal confirmed JEM was planning to mark the ICC's ruling with some form of action. "It is true we are preparing for the ICC day. But we are not sure what day it will be," he told Reuters, speaking by satellite phone from Darfur. "We are preparing militarily and with the IDP (internally displaced people) camps. There will be demonstrations. We are trying to make it an important day for justice."

"There is bombing going on right now," said JEM commander Suleiman Sandal at 2pm local time (1100 GMT) on Thursday. "They have seen JEM forces moving across the area. They think JEM is going to attack them ...

From Associated Press Cairo Friday, January 09, 2009 (via Toronto Sun):
Sudan bombs Darfur border

Rebels and aid workers say Sudan's government airplanes have dropped bombs along a northern strip in Darfur. It's the first such report of violence in weeks.

A spokesman for the rebel Justice and Equality Movement says his group was the target.

He claims the government bombed villages and water wells overnight and this morning along a strip stretching some 200 km.

The government didn't immediately respond. It wasn't known if there were casualties in the remote area.

Aid workers in the region said they heard bombings but had no details.
- - -

From Reuters by Andrew Heavens in Khartoum Thursday, January 08, 2009:
Darfur rebels accuse Sudan of fresh bombings

Darfur rebels accused Sudan's army of bombing their positions on Thursday, breaking a period of relative calm in the country's violent west.

No one was immediately available to comment from Sudan's armed forces.

The insurgent Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) told Reuters government helicopters and Antonov planes attacked their fighters across a wide area of north Darfur from around midday on Wednesday until late Thursday afternoon.

"There is bombing going on right now," said JEM commander Suleiman Sandal at 2pm local time (1100 GMT) on Thursday.

"They have seen JEM forces moving across the area. They think JEM is going to attack them ... This is the first for some time."

The reports were confirmed by Ibrahim al-Helwu from the branch of the rebel Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) controlled by Abdel Wahed Mohamed Ahmed al-Nur.

International sources, who asked not to be named, said they had heard similar reports.

"They are bombing randomly in a very large area. Large areas of grassland are on fire," said al-Helwu. He added a number of civilians had been injured, but had no figures.

ARREST WARRANT

The attacks were on territory around at least nine settlements including the towns of Kutum, Birdik, Mallit and Um Sidir, the rebels said. Sudan's president announced an "unconditional" ceasefire in the region less than two months ago.

The joint United Nations/African Union UNAMID peacekeeping force said it was looking into reports of clashes between government and rebel forces in the days after the November ceasefire announcement. But the fighting appeared to die down in December.

JEM's accusation will add to tension mounting ahead of a ruling from the International Criminal Court on whether to issue an arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir on charges of orchestrating genocide in Darfur.

A senior foreign office official on Monday told Reuters the government had intelligence JEM was planning to attack Sudanese cities and oil fields as soon as the court's decision was announced.

Sandal confirmed JEM was planning to mark the ruling with some form of action, but declined to go into details.

"It is true we are preparing for the ICC day. But we are not sure what day it will be," he told Reuters, speaking by satellite phone from Darfur.

"We are preparing militarily and with the IDP (internally displaced people) camps. There will be demonstrations. We are trying to make it an important day for justice."
Meanwhile, next day it's reported that JEM denies trying to kill its leader in Chad while JEM's in Washington talks with US special envoy to Sudan Richard Williamson

JEM denies trying to kill its leader in Chad - JEM in Washington talks with US special envoy to Sudan Richard Williamson

Today, reportedly, the Sudanese media center is saying that disputes inside JEM led to injury of its leader in Chad. Meanwhile, a JEM delegation has arrived in Washington, USA to discuss peace with US officials. How these lowlife criminals are free to come and go as they please whilst satisfying African and US immigration laws is beyond my comprehension.

JEM denies killing Dr Khalil Ibrahim
From Miraya FM Saturday, 10 January 2009:
The justice and equality movement denied the press statements claiming a murder attempt and allegations of injury of the chairman of JEM Dr. Khalil Ibrahim after disputes in his faction.

A JEM leader Jibril Ibrahim said that these are false allegations and that the movement is united, he accused the NCP of broadcasting such news. Pointing to, Dr. Khalil heads the JEM delegation currently in Washington, to discuss issues concerning the Darfur crisis with the American administration.

The Sudanese media center had recently published that there are ongoing conflicts between members of the movement, which it described as disputes inside the JEM led to an unspecified injury of Dr.Khalil, at Chadian area of UMjaras.
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Darfur JEM delegation in Washington discuss peace with US officials
From Sudan Tribune Thursday, 08 January 2009 Washington:
The Darfur Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in Washington met today with the US special envoy to Sudan and discussed with him efforts to resume stalled peace process.

Ahmed Hussein spokesperson for JEM told Sudan Tribune that the talks with Richard Williamson focused mainly on the peace process and humanitarian situation.

“We informed the US envoy that our strategic goal is achieving peace and stability in the region. We have no other interests as far as we are concerned” Hussein said.

“At the same time we told him that Khartoum must show seriousness in peace and cease all military activities and harassment of humanitarian work and displaced civilians alike” he added.

JEM started a week long visit to the US despite media reports in Khartoum that Washington postponed it.

The US embassy in Khartoum said that the visit “will take place within the context of U.S. government efforts to encourage all parties to participate in the Darfur peace process”.

Hussein said that Williamson encouraged them “to seize the window of opportunity for peace” including a Qatari initiative underway. Furthermore the US envoy told JEM that even though the venue of future talks would be Qatar, the Joint African Union- United Nations mediator Dijibril Bassole will play the leading role.

JEM also warned that some parties in Sudan may attempt to destabilize the situation further in Sudan following a possible arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir.

The delegation also met with Timothy Shortley head of Sudan program group at the US state department where “constructive dialogue” was held. Hussein said.

Further meeting are scheduled on Friday with US assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer.

Former Wall Street banker Philippe Heilberg gambles on a warlord's continuing control of 400,000 hectares of land in South Sudan (Update 1)

Laws on land ownership in south Sudan remain vague and have yet to be clarified in a planned land act.

[UPDATE: Tuesday 13 January 2009: I have added four new reports here below and highlighted some text in red for future reference]

Financial Times report by Javier Blas and William Wallis in London January 10 2009:
BUYER SEES PROFIT IN WARLORD'S LAND

A US businessman backed by former CIA and state department officials says he has secured a vast tract of fertile land in south Sudan from the family of a notorious warlord, in post-colonial Africa's biggest private land deal.

Philippe Heilberg, a former Wall Street banker and chairman of New York-based Jarch Capital, told the Financial Times he had gained leasehold rights to 400,000 hectares of land - an area the size of the emirate of Dubai - by taking a majority stake in a company controlled by the son of Paulino Matip.

Mr Matip fought on both sides in Sudan's lengthy civil war but became deputy commander of the army in the autonomous southern region following a 2005 peace agreement.

The deal, between Mr Heilberg's affiliate company in the Virgin Islands and Gabriel Matip, is a striking example of how the recent spike in global commodity food prices has encouraged foreign investors and governments to scramble for control of arable land in Africa.

In contrast to land deals between foreign investors and governments, Mr Heilberg is gambling on a warlord's continuing control of a region where his militia operated in the civil war.

"You have to go to the guns: this is Africa," Mr Heilberg said by phone from New York. He refused to disclose how much he had paid for the lease.

Jarch Management Group is linked to Jarch Capital, a US investment company that counts on its board former state department and intelligence officials, including Joseph Wilson, a former ambassador and expert on Africa, who acts as vice-chairman; and Gwyneth Todd, who was an adviser on the Middle East and north Africa at the Pentagon and under Bill Clinton at the White House.

Laws on land ownership in south Sudan remain vague and have yet to be clarified in a planned land act. Some foreign experts on Sudan as well as officials in the regional government, speaking on condition of anonymity, doubted Mr Heilberg could assert legal rights over such a vast tract of land. The deal is second only in size to the recent lease of 1.3m hectares by South Korea's Daewoo from the government of Madagascar.

Mr Heilberg is unconcerned. He believes that several African states, Sudan included, but possibly also Nigeria, Ethiopia and Somalia, are likely to break apart in the next few years and that the political and legal risks he is taking will be amply rewarded.

"If you bet right on the shifting of sovereignty then you are on the ground floor. I am constantly looking at the map and looking if there is any value," he said.

He was also in contact with rebels in Sudan's western region of Darfur, dissidents in Ethiopia and the government of the breakaway state of Somaliland, among others.

Mr Heilberg said Jarch had no agricultural expertise but would seek joint-venture partners to cultivate the land, which is in one of the remotest parts of Sudan, in a region bordering the White Nile and with no tarred roads.
- - -

FRONTIER SPIRIT EMBRACES RISKS OF SOUTH SUDAN
From the Financial Times by Javier Blas and William Wallis 10 January 2009:
There are few regions in Africa as remote and undeveloped as southern Sudan. Unity state, where Philippe Heilberg says he has secured a huge tract of arable land, is inaccessible even by south Sudan's standards.

Aside from AK-47s, it is deprived of most of the trappings of the modern world. Even a road network that has been under construction since 2005, when a peace agreement ended the long civil war between the predominately Muslim north and the Christian and animist south of the country, has yet to reach it. But Unity state does border the White Nile and its flat, arable land could, with billions of dollars of investment in irrigation and roads, be transformed into a world-class breadbasket.

As commodity prices spiked last year, Gulf countries poured hundreds of millions of dollars into securing land in the fertile Nile valley farther north to grow food crops for exporting home.

Mr Heilberg is convinced that demand for land is now gravitating south. Other experts say investors are scouting out opportunities in the south, albeit on a far less ambitious scale. That is despite imprecise land laws and the risk of a new civil war should the oil-rich south vote for independence in a planned referendum in 2011.

Mr Heilberg has experience in commodities markets on Wall Street and in Asia. To help him as he looks for opportunities in Africa, he has pulled together a board at his US-based investment vehicle, Jarch Capital, that includes Middle East, Africa and security experts with years of experience at the Pentagon, CIA, White House and state department.

He is of a resurgent class of western businessman drawn to the potential of Africa's remaining frontiers, who have been energised by Asia's appetite for the continent's natural resources.

Sudan experts familiar with his business strategy liken him to buccaneering capitalists such as Sweden's late Adolph Lundin, who acquired mining and oil concessions in Congo and Sudan while civil wars were still raging and turned huge profits when he sold them on.

In both countries, however, legal wrangling has often prevented mineral concessions from becoming productive. Mr Heilberg has experience of this problem after being embroiled in a dispute with the south Sudan government over oil exploration rights also claimed by other companies.

Some experts on Sudan believe his 400,000 hectares will face a similar fate and that his ultimate strategy is to trade whatever claim he can sustain over the land to investors with a greater capacity to develop it. He says the land has great potential for biofuels and food crops and is looking for joint-venture partners.

He insists the law is less important to his deal than the clout he has bought into by associating with a former warlord, Paulino Matip, whose family says it owns some of the land in Mayom county, in Unity state.

"I never understood why the oil industry could spend $1bn drilling dry holes but they do not want to take a single dollar in legal risks," Mr Heilberg told the FT.

Mr Matip fought with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement against the northern army before gaining notoriety during a bloody civil war episode when he switched sides to form his own militia, with backing from parts of his Nuer tribe and the Khartoum regime. "I am sure Paulino has killed many, but I am sure he done it in protection of his people," Mr Heilberg says.

Following the 2005 peace agreement his forces were appeased when he was brought in as deputy commander in the army of the autonomous south.

Mr Matip's son Gabriel, who controls the company in which Jarch has bought a majority stake, said he had negotiated with tribal leaders to secure access to more land. He said the company also had the agreement of the ministry of agriculture in south Sudan for the development of the land.
- - -

U.S. INVESTOR LEADS SOUTHERN SUDAN LAND LEASE DEAL
From Reuters (New York) by Megan Davies 12 January 2009:
A U.S. investor who previously worked for insurance firm American International Group Inc (AIG.N) has led a deal to lease a substantial amount of farm land in Southern Sudan, where he sees ripe opportunity for investment and development.

Philippe Heilberg, chairman and CEO of New York-based investment firm Jarch Capital, told Reuters on Monday he expected high returns from the approximately 400,000 hectares of land in Mayom county and anticipated Jarch being involved with the land for "decades".

He declined to say how much had been paid for the lease.

Jarch said in an emailed statement that agriculture in Southern Sudan is exempted from U.S. sanctions provided that the Government of Sudan in Khartoum does not have any interest and no imports or exports pass through nonexempt areas. Jarch said it will only deal in Southern Sudan.

Heilberg said Jarch felt comfortable investing in Mayon and that the local politicians and population would be accepting of the investment.

"With risk, you have to look at risk and reward together -- this is why we pick our areas very carefully," he said.

Africa's biggest country has suffered decades of strife. Its north-south war -- separate from the conflict in its Darfur region -- was Africa's longest civil war and claimed the lives of some two million people.

A north-south peace deal was struck in 2005 and a semi- autonomous south Sudan government was then formed with the right to vote on secession by 2011.

The United States has imposed sanctions on Sudan since 1997. In October 2006, U.S. President Bush signed an act that lessened restrictions on the government of Southern Sudan. The United Nations Security Council imposed an arms embargo on rebels and militia in March 2004 but not on Sudan's government.

"There's always an issue of instability," Heilberg said. "There's no perfect scenario. We're not investing in the U.S. This is more frontier land. Its also extremely fertile land."

LEASE DEAL

Under the deal, Jarch Capital's related company Jarch Management has agreed to lease about 400,000 hectares of prime farm land and buy a 70 percent interest in South Sudanese company LEAC for Agriculture and Investment Co Ltd.

Jarch Management, based in Hong Kong and registered in the British Virgin Islands, said it was buying the stake from Gabriel Matip, the eldest son of General Paulino Matip Nhial, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). The SPLA is the the armed wing of the southern Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).

Under the deal, it is leasing the land from Paulino Matip. In addition, Jarch expects to acquire more farm land within Southern Sudan.

LEAC has the right to grow cereals, oil seeds, vegetables, fruits and flowers and can process these products for both local and export use, Jarch said in the statement.

Heilberg, who studied at Wharton, worked for the foreign exchange trading department of Salmon Brothers Inc -- now part of Citigroup Inc (C.N) -- before working for AIG during the 1990s as a partner in its commodity division, according to Jarch's website.

Heilberg said the deals had actually been agreed in summer of 2008, but that Jarch had waited until now to make them public. (Editing by Andre Grenon)
- - -

RHODES REDUX
From the Financial Times 13 January 2009:
Land is not in short supply in south Sudan, where Philippe Heilberg, a US businessman, has laid claim to 4,000 sq km of fertile territory in a deal with the family of a notorious warlord. But then neither was it when Cecil Rhodes extracted mineral rights from King Lobengula of the Ndebele and used these to push the frontiers of the British empire beyond the Limpopo river. Some 120 years later, Zimbabwe is still struggling to overcome a legacy of unequal land distribution.

Mr Heilberg is a former Wall Street banker whose private investment company, Jarch Capital, counts former CIA, State department and Pentagon officials on its board. He may be no Rhodes - his recent forays into Africa have yet to bear much fruit and include an acrimonious dispute over claims to an oil concession in south Sudan. His latest venture does, though, have a decidedly 19th-century flavour to it.

It is the largest private land deal in Africa yet - involving the lease of a huge tract of remote territory bordering the Nile. Because ownership laws remain vague in south Sudan, Mr Heilberg concedes that the deal depends as much on control exerted by Paulino Matip, the warlord whose son's company claims rights to some of the land, as it does on legal title.

As such it could set a dangerous precedent. A certain class of businessman has thrived on a high-risk, high-reward formula in African conflict zones. Where state authority has crumbled, rights of ownership are murky at best but staking claims can prove lucrative.

Since the days of Rhodes, speculators have often been drawn to the minerals in which so much of Africa is rich. The scramble for their control has fuelled recent conflicts, while legal wrangling has often rendered valuable assets unproductive for years after conflicts end. It would be a tragedy for Africa if land, perhaps the greatest of all its resources, became a victim of the same dynamic.

Foreign investor interest has been sparked by the spike in commodity prices last year and the global concern about future food supplies that has followed. There are vast expanses of arable land in Africa lying fallow. Gulf and Asian countries as well as western businesses are taking note.

There is a need for investment if the continent's full agricultural potential is to be achieved. At a time of growing shortages, there is also an obvious need for African governments to prioritise domestic supplies. If the continent is to avoid repeating history, the big deals and speculation should come later.
- - -

SELLING AFRICA BY THE POUND
From Reuters blogs by Matthew Tostevin 13 January 2009:
The announcement by a U.S. investor that he has a deal to lease a swathe of South Sudan for farmland has again focused attention on foreigners trying to snap up African agricultural land.

A few months ago, South Korea’s Daweoo Logistics said it had secured rights to plant corn and palm oil in an even bigger patch of Madagascar - although local authorities said the deal was not done yet. Investors from Asia and the Gulf are looking elsewhere in Africa too.

Investor interest in farmland – not only in Africa – grew sharply after food prices shot to record highs last year. Although commodity prices have fallen since, there is still anticipation of long term demand growth once the world emerges from its current economic troubles.

Philippe Heilberg, chairman and CEO of New York-based investment firm Jarch Capital, told Reuters he saw ripe opportunity for decades in south Sudan’s Mayom county. The deal covers land nearly twice the size of the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius.

Land is being leased from General Paulino Matip Nhial, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) - the armed wing of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in semi-autonomous South Sudan. Jarch Management is also buying an interest in a local company from Matip’s son.


But should Africa be handing out its land to foreign investors and will the local people and countries involved be the ones to benefit?

This commentary in the Financial Times made comparisons with the colonial grab for Africa’s resources and points out the damaging legacy that remains.

“There is a need for investment if the continent’s full agricultural potential is to be achieved. At a time of growing shortages, there is also an obvious need for African governments to prioritise domestic supplies. If the continent is to avoid repeating history, the big deals and speculation should come later,” it said.

Is it wise to discourage such investment, though, if investors are willing to bring big money to put the land to more efficient use than is currently the case? While some areas of Africa are densely populated and every scrap of ground is farmed, other hugely fertile areas are barely used.

Investors argue that they can bring jobs long term and will improve local infrastructure - perhaps more so than if they were taking land for less emotive mining or oil concessions - as well as increasing food supplies and foreign exchange earnings. Elsewhere in the world, mechanised agriculture and bigger farms have led to major productivity increases - although environmentalists argue they can cause damage too. Despite their best efforts, African governments have not always proven themselves the best at managing agricultural resources. Might Africa miss out on development that has helped fuel broader economic growth in countries such as Brazil?

Land ownership could also prove contentious. In the distant past, it was often held by communities as a whole or vested in traditional authorities. State officials now often have the greatest say. That opens the potential for official abuse of yet another valuable resource. Since governments can come and go unpredictably that also means an increase in risk for investors and can only be a further encouragement to cut costs for a quick return.

Heilberg said Jarch felt comfortable investing in Mayom and that the local politicians and population would be accepting of the investment.

“With risk, you have to look at risk and reward together - this is why we pick our areas very carefully,” he said.

So is major foreign investment in land a danger to Africa or is it an opportunity that the continent cannot afford to miss? Is there a way of making it work for everyone’s benefit? What do you think?
- - -

Note from Sudan Watch Ed.
I find these reports deeply disturbing and depressing. More on this matter later.
- - -

UPDATE
See Sudan Watch 14 January 2009: South Sudan's proposed Land Bill will deny Sudanese ownership of their own land by granting foreigners 99 year leases

Japan donates $17m for Sudan Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration programme

From Miraya FM via ReliefWeb January 08, 2009:

Japan donate 17 million dollars to support DDDR in Sudan-
The Japanese Government and the goverment of Sudan and the United Nations will sign today a Japanese donation amounting to seventeen (17) million dollars.

This grant is dedicated to support Disarmament, Disintegration, Rehabilitation and Reintegration process in Sudan. It will also contribute to the reintegration of former combatants in the community.

This donation comes in the frame work of the DDR process which requires a budget of around 385 million dollars in the period between 2009 and 2011.
More at Sudan Tribune: Japan grants $17 million for disarmament programme.

Ten water wells drilled in South Darfur by Chinese companies

Chinese companies have completed the exploration, drilling, and assembling pumps and water tanks for ten water wells in South Darfur.

Chinese company drills ten wells in Sudan's Darfur
January 08, 2009 KHARTOUM (Xinhua) -- China and Sudan signed here on Thursday a certificate of handing over ten wells drilled by Chinese companies in the arid western Sudanese region of Darfur.

Chinese Ambassador to Sudan Li Chengwen and Sudanese Commissioner for the Humanitarian Assistance Affairs Hasbu Mohammed Abdullah signed the document at a ceremony attended by Liu Guijin, the special representative of the Chinese government for Darfur, who is currently visiting Sudan.

Expressing his government's thanks for the assistance provided by the Chinese government to Darfur, Hasbu noted that China had become the country providing the most assistance of development to the western Sudanese region, which had been ravaged by armed conflicts.

He told reporters that schools, wells, power stations and other projects built with the Chinese assistance were being put into operation, and have played an important role in helping the displaced people return to their homes and resume their life and production.

Liu Guijin promised that the Chinese government would provide more concrete assistance to Darfur, highly praising the efforts exerted by the Sudanese government to realize peace, stability and development in Darfur.

The ten wells, all located in the South Darfur state, constituted one part of projects of development assistance provided by the Chinese government to Darfur.

Chinese companies completed the exploration, drilling, and assembling pumps and water tanks in a short period, meeting the urgent demand of the local residents. Editor: Yang Lina

Friday, January 09, 2009

Peter Eichstaedt's book on Joseph Kony: First Kill Your Family: Child Soldiers of Uganda and the LRA

Peter Eichstaedt's book on Joseph Kony, now out, titled First Kill Your Family: Child Soldiers of Uganda and the Lord's Resistance Army.

"First Kill Your Family"

See further details in my post at Congo Watch today, Friday, January 09, 2009 - Peter Eichstaedt's book on the LRA, First Kill Your Family: Child Soldiers of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army - and note this line of text that I've highlighted in red:
Many refugees believe that the southern-dominated regime welcomes the excuse to debilitate traditionally hostile northern tribes
What does it mean?

Note to self to find out more.

(Cross posted today at Uganda Watch)

Thursday, January 08, 2009

The White House denounces Nicholas Kristof

The White House has issued a Statement by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley confirming that Nicholas Kristof's portrayal last week of the Bush Administration's response to the genocide in Darfur (A New Chance for Darfur, December 28, 2008) was inaccurate.

Quite right too. Good for them. Kristof makes my blood boil. Why the New York Times continues to facilitate such a self serving political activist with dangerous views masquarading as hard news is beyond my understanding.

True to form, Kristof could not resist responding stupidly on his blog [Ref. Jan. 05, 2009 The White House denounces me] bragging:
"Wow. I’m so flattered [...] my hunch is that President Bush finally weighed in after my column in question or that Hadley became concerned about his own reputation on this matter."
Well, my hunch is that Kristof's hunch is wrong on both counts and that he is a deluded idiot driven by self interest. The high regard I had for the New York Times five years ago steadily evaporated over the years that it published Kristof's naive rants on Sudan. Surely if the New York Times continues to publish Kristof's dangerous political activism, it risks bringing itself into further disrepute.

For the record, here below is a copy of The White House's Statement. I have highlighted in red the part that puts into a nutshell how well the Bush Administration has handled the Sudan crisis. America deserves great plaudits for its massively generous donations and aid to Sudan and to Africa as a whole, and for peacefully helping to bring under control the horrific civil war in Southern Sudan and Darfur, Western Sudan. Thank goodness that President Bush and his Administration never heeded advice from Nicholas Kristof and Eric Reeves [whose latest rant appears at Sudan Tribune Dec. 19, 2008: Genocide in Darfur: International focus on Al-Bashir is too narrow]. God help US President-elect Obama if he listens to either of those two. They'd set the tinder box of Africa alight at the blink of an eyelid. Kristof and Reeves ought to take a leaf out of Alex de Waal's book. Dr de Waal is one of the Brits recognised for exceptional achievement and service to the UK in the New Years Honours List (December 31, 2008). The honour of an OBE has been bestowed on Dr de Waal for his services to development and conflict resolution in Africa. Congratulations to Alex (my favourite reporter on Sudan). See? Love and peace are always better (and more rewarding!) than violence and war.

From The White House
Office of the Press Secretary
January 5, 2009

Statement by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley
Today, President Bush announced his approval of the airlift of equipment for the United Nations/African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). The President also authorized the waiver of the 15-day congressional notification requirements to allow the airlift assistance to proceed immediately, because failing to do so would pose a substantial risk to human health and welfare.

The U.S. provision of airlift will deliver equipment and vehicles that are critical to the UNAMID deployment, and will thus help UNAMID directly protect civilian lives and improve the safe and effective delivery of lifesaving humanitarian aid to areas of west Darfur currently inaccessible due to security concerns.

Today's announcement is further evidence that Nicholas Kristof's portrayal last week of this Administration's response to the genocide in Darfur (A New Chance for Darfur, December 28, 2008) was inaccurate. President Bush has been committed to resolving the crisis there since the United States first labeled it genocide in 2004. Even prior to the Darfur crisis, the President showed his commitment to the cause of peace in Sudan by pressing for a historic peace agreement between the North and South that ended the country's 22-year civil war which took more than two million lives.

The President has named three special envoys to advance peace in Sudan: Senator John Danforth, who helped achieved the North-South peace and initiated our efforts on Darfur; followed by the appointment of Andrew Natsios, and finally the appointment of Rich Williamson in January 2008. Prior to Williamson's appointment, more robust military options were considered by the President for Darfur. The decision not to pursue those options was driven by the pleas of the leading church, advocacy, and humanitarian organizations dedicated to Darfur, who argued that United States military action would imperil their ability to deliver the kinds of life saving assistance that continues to keep more than 3.5 million Darfuris alive each year. Experts within the U.S. Agency for International Development were making similar arguments, as was the African Union, which at the time had more than 7,000 peacekeepers deployed across Darfur. And in a meeting just this month with a leading Darfuri human rights activist, the message was once again reiterated that U.S. military action would only worsen the situation for the very people we are trying to save.

This is not to say that increasing pressure on the Government of Sudan to relent in its campaign of violence is not a crucial element of U.S. policy toward Sudan. It is. U.S. financial sanctions against Sudan are among the toughest we have. Over the last five years, hundreds of millions of dollars in Sudanese transactions have been blocked or disrupted. Last year, the President further tightened these measures, announcing sanctions against dozens of companies tied to the Bashir regime or linked to violence in Darfur. Sudanese companies lost access to international markets and financing, including one of the regime's primary bankers in Europe. Within months of this action, the Sudanese government relented in its opposition to allowing United Nations peacekeepers to deploy to Darfur.

Unilateral pressure alone cannot be our policy. And it is not. That is why we are working closely with the United Nations to ensure that the peacekeepers are actually deployed and that they are trained and equipped effectively to carry out their mandate. It is also why we are supporting the work of the U.N./AU Mediator, Djibril Bassole, who has slowly gained the trust and confidence of government officials and rebel leaders alike. Bassole knows that, regrettably there are no silver bullets or quick fixes to this great human tragedy. The United States will continue to lead the international community to stand by the people of Darfur and to deploy and support the U.N. peacekeeping operation.
- - -

Here is a copy of Nicholas Kristof's blog post (followed by readers' comments that I agree with) published at nytimes.com

January 05, 2009
The White House denounces me
By Nicholas Kristof
Wow. I’m so flattered. Here’s a statement the White House just put out, in the name of National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley:

Today, President Bush announced his approval of the airlift of equipment for the United Nations/African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). The President also authorized the waiver of the 15-day congressional notification requirements to allow the airlift assistance to proceed immediately, because failing to do so would pose a substantial risk to human health and welfare.

The U.S. provision of airlift will deliver equipment and vehicles that are critical to the UNAMID deployment, and will thus help UNAMID directly protect civilian lives and improve the safe and effective delivery of lifesaving humanitarian aid to areas of west Darfur currently inaccessible due to security concerns.

Today’s announcement is further evidence that Nicholas Kristof’s portrayal last week of this Administration’s response to the genocide in Darfur (A New Chance for Darfur, December 28, 2008) was inaccurate. President Bush has been committed to resolving the crisis there since the United States first labeled it genocide in 2004.

Look, I’m delighted that the White House is, belatedly, organizing this airlift. It sure smells of a desperate effort to burnish the administration’s legacy on Darfur, but better late than never. This particular step is one that the White House and Pentagon have resisted for months, so my hunch is that President Bush finally weighed in after my column in question or that Hadley became concerned about his own reputation on this matter.

The fact is that President Bush has seemed genuinely interested in Sudan and Darfur. He used the word genocide to refer to Darfur, which some officials were afraid of doing for fear that then they would have to do something about it. (They needn’t have worried: events showed that the president can use the g-word as a substitute for action rather than a spur to action.) Bush has also been good about sending relief supplies, and just last month he met in the White House with an extraordinary Darfur survivor, Halima Bashir, whom I’ve written about. But when you go to Darfur and see children with bullets and shrapnel, it seems incredibly inadequate to be always sending bandages and nothing more. What Bush hasn’t done is actually take steps to stop the killing. (In fairness, European countries haven’t shown much interest in this, either, and the Bush administration has done better than many governments.) President Clinton has said that his biggest regret in foreign policy was his paralysis during the 100-day Rwandan genocide; President Bush has been similarly paralyzed for five full years of Darfur’s slow-motion genocide.

What I hear is that Bush has repeatedly raised Darfur in White House meetings and asked about taking tougher steps. And each time, Condi Rice and Steve Hadley have discouraged him. The State Department’s Office of Policy Planning suggested some serious diplomatic moves, but they were ignored by the White House. Likewise, Michael Gerson when he was in the White House suggested a prime time speech on Darfur, which at least would have spotlighted the issue, but that was rejected. And this year, as I wrote in last week’s column, Ambassador Richard Williamson has listed a series of tough steps to put pressure on Sudan. They haven’t even had a serious hearing because of Hadley and Rice.

So I applaud today’s announcement about the airlift, and I hope that the Obama administration takes up where Bush leaves off — and doesn’t just stand at the sidelines, expressing regret. We have a chance now to work with Europe and Arab states such as Qatar to enforce the upcoming International Criminal Court arrest warrant for President Bashir — and end this genocide in 2009.
Readers' comments at nytimes.com

Here is a copy of the comments that I agree with, especially the last one No. 22 (except the part about Iraq: I supported intervention in Iraq and still do)

5. January 5, 2009
Mr Kristof,

While I consistently enjoy reading your column, this one irked me a bit, particularly this sentence:

(In fairness, European countries haven’t shown much interest in this, either, and the Bush administration has done better than many governments.)

This point seems quite important to your claim that the Bush administration has not done enough in Darfur, yet you only include it as a parenthetical side note.

You also write that “President Bush has been similarly paralyzed for five full years of Darfur’s slow-motion genocide.” But what about our other commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past five years? Despite the colossal mistake that is the Iraq war and despite how you may feel about our commitments there, given that we have soldiers on the ground, should Iraq not receive more of our administration’s attention than Darfur?

This may seem cold-hearted, but realistically, we cannot save every war-torn country from itself, can we? It seems as if you’ve been blinded by your idealism. I am 27 years old, voted for Obama, have peace corps aspirations, and have followed your column with great respect. But this time, I’m not so sure what to think.
— sella
15. January 6, 2009
Wow. You actually think a contract for airlift of hundreds of containers under UN control can be negotiated in one week? Your lack of knowledge is only out done by your self importance. The combination of ignorance and arrogance is truly amazing. Congratulations indeed.
— Reality
16. January 6, 2009
“Wow. I’m so flattered.”
Sorry, but this sounds extremely juvenile.

Whatever you think of Bush, he has done more for Africa than any other US president.
— Sam
22. January 6, 2009
Mr. Kristof,

Your reactions to the White House announcement for airlift support are truly shocking. Your claim of credit smacks of smug self importance and is a disservice to the countless U.S. public servants at the State Department, National Security Council, and USAID that have been laboring long and hard to resolve the Darfur crisis. The previous comment about taking one week to negotiate a complex airlift agreement is spot on. This commitment must have taken months to get through the burdensome UN bureaucracy. Given that you have spent many years covering international issues across 120 countries, one would think that you would have acquired a better sense of how international processes work.

From what I’ve seen, the Bush Administration has fought hard to secure strong UN action in Darfur (most of your readers are multilateralists are they not). They are providing hundreds of millions of dollars to support the UN and African Union peacekeeping missions and have applied significant diplomatic pressure to secure additional troop contributions from countries across the globe. Moreover, they’ve applied strong economic sanctions against the rogue Sudanese regime. Instead of blaming President Bush, you should take a close look at how the UN system should be revamped to improve responsiveness and prevent bad actors (Russia and China) from blocking more aggressive action.
— George
See Sudan Watch Jan. 07, 2009: Warmongering New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof is gunning for Khartoum
- - -

FAREWELL AND THANKS TO PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH

As a tribute to the George W Bush era, here are some of my favourite photos from Sudan Watch archives.

US President GW Bush aboard Air Force One

Photo: US President George Bush speaks to Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo, regarding the recent progress towards peace in Darfur, while on board an Air Force One May 6, 2006. (Reuters) Ref Sudan Watch archives: Bush thanks African leaders for Sudan work - in a call from Air Force One - May 06, 2006

Soccer Balls

Photo: Senior Airman Mike Meares, of the 86th Air Expeditionary Group public affairs office, shows a local child his photo on the back of his digital camera July 28, 2005. The group donated soccer balls, soccer nets, candy and toys to the children attending the Nonko Primary School of Kigali-Kanombe, Rwanda. The United States provided transportation for 1,200 Rwandan forces to and back from Sudan in support of AMIS 2, the African Union Mission in Sudan. Full Story at Hilltop Times "Airmen donate soccer balls, supplies to African children" Thursday August 4, 2005. (Photo by by SSgt Bradley C. Church) Ref Sudan Watch archives: Alex de Waal on John Garang: Death of an Enigma - August 04, 2005.

Bush and Bono

Photo: Bono rubs shoulders with Bush at G8. Don't miss Brendan O'Neill's article Welcome to the People's Republic of Bono posted at Spiked and copied at Ethiopia Watch, a sister blog of Sudan Watch - June 14, 2007

Prime Minister Tony Blair in Khartoum Oct 2004

Photo: Prime Minister Tony Blair in Khartoum, Sudan October 2004, the first visit to Sudan by a British leader since Sudan gained its independence from Britain in 1956. Mr Blair said the fact he had travelled to Khartoum showed "the seriousness with which this is taken".

Tony Blair in Khartoum Sudan

Photo: Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir shakes hands with British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the presidential palace in Khartoum in Sudan October 06, 2004. (AFP). 

Payback time for US on Iraq

Photo: Tony Blair must tell George Bush to repay British support over the war on terror by backing moves to end African poverty, campaigners have demanded. The Prime Minister flies to Washington today for White House talks with the president of the United States tomorrow. Picture: Mark Wilson/ Getty Images: Blair to visit Bush for talks at White House tomorrow. "Tony Blair has got to go there [the White House] and make George Bush sit up and notice public opinion here" - Sir Bob Geldof, Live 8 organiser. Story in full at The Scotsman June 06, 2005.

Blair and Brown

Photo: British Prime Ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown worked tirelessly together for over a decade to help improve the lives of people living in poverty both at home and abroad, especially in Africa in tandem with Sir Bono and Sir Bob Geldof, pictured here below as part of the Live8 concerts.

Sir Bob Geldof and Sail 8

Make Poverty History March

Photo: Make Poverty History march Scotland. UK 2 July 2005.

East Africa a front in war on terrorism

Photo: Sgt. 1st Class Adam Reed, from Sidon, Miss., Jan. 17 with Somali farmers in Sankabar, Ethiopia, to check on the water pumps the U.S. military helped install in their fields. (Photo by EVELYN HOCKSTEIN courtesy KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS/Seattle Times)  Feb 5, 2006 the Seattle Times publishes East Africa a front in war on terrorism authored by Shashank Bengali, Knight Ridder Newspapers. This story was featured here at Sudan Watch a few days ago. It is about the war on terrorism that most Americans (or the rest of us) haven't heard of. It's a must-read.

Ramstein team aids peacekeeping mission in Darfur

Photo: Ramstein Airmen assist Ugandan civil police with their baggage while transfering at Kigali International Airport, Rwanda. The Ugandan civil police are returning home after a one-year deployment to the Darfur region. Airmen from Ramstein Air Base, Germany, are deployed to Kigali, Rwanda, to provide airlift support for the African Union peacekeeping mission. (U.S. Air Force photo/Capt. Erin Dorrance)

Returning home from Darfur

Photo: Ugandan civil police prepare to board a Botswana C-130 at the airport in Kigali, Rwanda. They were returning home after a one-year deployment to the Darfur region where they were part of the African Union peacekeeping mission. (U.S. Air Force photo/Capt. Erin Dorrance)

NATO extends Darfur airlift mission

Photo: Rwandan soldiers from the last of the three battalions in Kigali deploying in Darfur western Sudan as part of an African Union mission, 30 September 2005, board a US Air Force C-130 heading for El Fasher, Sudan. When the airlift is completed Rwanda will have deployed more than 1800 men in Darfur. (AFP/Helen Vesperini/Yahoo) 30 Sep 2005

NATO:  2000 AU troops airlifted to Darfur

Photo: 2000 AU troops airlifted to Darfur. First NATO airlift of civilian police into Darfur. Photo courtesy NATO. Sudan Watch August 11, 2005

US airlifts AU troops to Darfur

Photo: Archive photo of Nigerian troops preparing to board a U.S. military plane in the Nigerian capital Abuja, October 28, 2004.

US airlifts AU troops to Darfur

Photo: Kigali International Airport, Rwanda -- Rwandan forces stand by to board a C-130 Hercules from Ramstein Air Base, Germany, here July 19. The Ramstein Airmen were here to provide transportation for 1,200 Rwandan forces to Sudan in support of NATO's response for the African Union's expanded peacekeeping mission in Darfur with logistics and training. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Bradley C. Church)

The troops were sent off with the music of a Rwandan military band, and marched to the C-17 through a Rwandan military honor guard hailing them with fixed bayonets. The aircraft was from McGuire Air Force Base, N.J., and was flown by a crew from McChord AFB, Wash.

"All of our efforts in support of (the mission in the Darfur region of Sudan) underscore our commitment to an important team effort," said Capt. Joel Harper, the group's public affairs chief. "We are working with the international community, specifically the African Union and NATO, to help achieve peace in a unified Sudan."

US airlifts AU troops to Darfur

Photo: Kigali International Airport, Rwanda -- Tech. Sgt. Phillip Derenski talks with Rwandan Lt. Kadhafi Ntayomba on a C-17 Globemaster III from McGuire Air Force Base, N.J., after arriving at the airport July 17. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Bradley C. Church) During the operation, about 150 Airmen from Ramstein Air Base, Germany; Royal Mildenhall, England; and strategic support from U.S. Transportation Command will move about 1,200 Rwandan troops from Kigali to Al-Fashir, Sudan.
"We're not alone in this mission," Colonel Schafer said. "We're working with our allies in NATO and the AU to ensure Darfur gets help."

US airlifts AU troops

Photo: Kigali International Airport, Rwanda -- Rwandan forces prepare to board a C-17 Globemaster III from McGuire Air Force Base, N.J., on July 17. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Bradley C. Church) The U.S. airlift is part of the larger multinational effort to improve security and create conditions in which humanitarian assistance can be more effectively provided to the people of Darfur. NATO Secretary Gen. Jaap de Hoop Scheffer announced June 9 that the alliance would help the AU expand its peacekeeping force in Darfur from 3,300 to about 7,700 in the coming months.

Rwandan troops to Darfur

Photo July 17, 2005 AFP - Rwandan troops of the African Union force wait to board a plane at Kigali International Airport in Rwanda to be dispatched to Darfur. US President George W. Bush directed the Pentagon to spend six million dollars in 'commodities and services' to help transport African Union troops to Darfur. (AFP/File/Jose Cendon)

Germany - US Sudan airlift

Photo: In a picture provided by the U.S. Air Force U.S. Airmen process through a deployment line at U.S. airbase in Ramstein, southern Germany, Friday July 15, 2005 in preparation for a month-long airlift mission to Darfur. Three C-130 Hercules aircraft and approximately 40 airmen departed from Ramstein, southern Germany, for Kigali, Rwanda, July 16, 2005, as part of NATO's response to support the African Union's expanded peacekeeping mission in Darfur with logistics and training. (AP Photo/U.S. Air Force, Master Sgt. David D. Underwood, Jr.)

Germany - US Sudan Airlift

Photo: JIn a picture provided by the U.S. Air Force a soldier signals to a plane as three C-130 Hercules aircraft and approximately 40 airmen depart from U.S. airbase in Ramstein, southern Germany, for Kigali, Rwanda, July 16, 2005, as part of NATO's response to support the African Union's expanded peacekeeping mission in Darfur, Sudan, with logistics and training. (AP Photo/U.S. Air Force, Master Sgt. David D. Underwood, Jr.)

US President & Minni Minnawi

Photo: US President George W. Bush welcomes Sudanese Liberation Movement leader Minni Minnawi to the Oval Office Tuesday, July 25, 2006, in Washington, D.C., meeting to discuss the Darfur region of western Sudan. White House photo by Kimberlee Hewitt. Ref Sudan Watch archive December 03, 2008: France based Darfur war leader Abdel-Wahid Al-Nur dismisses all peace initiatives and proposes none

WATER WILL BECOME SUDAN'S MOST PRECIOUS RESOURCE

Darfur, Western Sudan

Photo from U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum mixed-media event featured as part of virtual reality program (via FUTURE-MAKING SERIOUS GAMES: Serious Games Event At The Infinite Mind Virtual Broadcast Center blog entry 01 Jan, 2007) 

UPDATE JANUARY 08 2009

BUSH PROMISES TO STAY ENGAGED ON SUDAN

Jan 05, 2009 Reuters report by Caren Bohan in Washington - excerpt:
U.S. President George W. Bush promised on Monday not to forget after he leaves office about violence in the Darfur region of western Sudan, which the United States has described as genocide.

Two weeks before stepping down, Bush met Salva Kiir, president of semi-autonomous south Sudan who led rebels fighting for autonomy for Sudan's mostly animist or Christian south from the Muslim north in a civil war that claimed 2 million lives.

Kiir, now first vice president in the Khartoum government, asked Bush whether he was "still going to care about Sudan" after he leaves office.

"And the answer is absolutely," Bush said.

Bush claimed some personal credit for helping to broker the north-south peace agreement, saying it was "negotiated under my watch" and said the United States must pay close attention to its implementation.

Barack Obama takes over from Bush as President on January 20.

On Darfur, Bush thanked Kiir for efforts to bring rebel groups together to negotiate with the Islamist government of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and said he supported a long-delayed airlift of equipment to help peace keepers there. (Editing by Alan Elsner)
Presidents Bush and Salva Kiir

On Monday January 05 2009 in Washington, President Bush met with Salva Kiir, who is both the Vice-President of Sudan and President of Southern Sudan. (Source: FP.com) See Salva Kiir Profile (BBC)

Also, see Voice of America report by Paula Wolfson, White House 05 January 2009:  Bush Orders Airlift of Supplies for Darfur Mission.

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Warmongering New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof is gunning for Khartoum

The following copy of an article published at Sudan Tribune appears to be based on an opinion piece by The New York Times' columnist, Nicholas Kristof. The BBC interview cited in the article took place in February of last year [George W Bush's BBC interview 14 February 2008]. Note the paragraph that I have highlighted in red for future reference.

From Sudan Tribune - US special envoy to Sudan asked Bush to use military force: report
December 28, 2008 (WASHINGTON) – The US special envoy to Sudan Richard Williamson has reportedly asked President Bush to take coercive measures against Khartoum to halt killings in the western region of Darfur.

US special envoy for Sudan, Richard Williamson

Photo: US special envoy for Sudan, Richard Williamson, leaves after meeting with Sudanese Foreign Minister Deng Alor (unseen) in Khartoum on June 2, 2008 (AFP)

The New York Times (NYT) newspaper reported that Williamson sent a “tough” memo to Bush recommending a series of steps to pressure the Sudanese government.

Among the steps is to temporarily jam all communications in the Sudanese capital which would severe telephone communications, cell phones as well as internet access.

Furthermore the US navy would hinder access to Port Sudan by searching or turning away some ships. At a later stage a full blown embargo could be enforced to prevent Sudan from selling its oil.

The last stage would be to shoot down all Sudanese fighters that violate ban over Darfur and to use the threat of destroying air force if Khartoum does not comply with other demands such as handing over two suspects to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The US has been the only country to label the Darfur conflict genocide and the Bush administration has been under intense domestic pressure to intervene.

The US has been the most outspoken country on bringing the issue of the Darfur. In September 2004 Washington officially labeled the conflict as ‘genocide’.

Last February US President George W Bush has defended his decision not to send troops to the region despite strong domestic pressure.

“I had to make a seminal decision. And that is whether or not I would commit US troops into Darfur” Bush told the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in an interview.

But many Darfur activists accused the Bush administration of refusing to take more forceful steps against Khartoum to avoid jeopardizing their intelligence cooperation.

US officials denied the allegations saying that the counterterrorism cooperation has not prevented Washington from taking the lead on the Darfur crisis.

The NYT said that the plans put forth by Williamson were blocked by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security adviser Stephen Hadley.

The report is likely to worry Khartoum which has last week praised Williamson for his knowledge of Sudan after the diplomat made a speech suggesting that the incoming Obama administration should test diplomatic options with Sudan before moving to “more robust steps.”
I say, if this report is true, thank goodness for Dr Rice and Mr Hadley.
- - -

A New Chance for Darfur
Opinion editiorial by NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Published at nytimes.com December 27, 2008

Nicholas D. Kristof

Photo: Nicholas D. Kristof (Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times)
If Barack Obama wants to help end the genocide in Darfur, he doesn’t have to look far for ideas of how to accomplish that. President Bush and his top aides have been given, and ignored, a menu of options for tough steps to squeeze Sudan — even destroy its air force — and those will soon be on the new president’s desk.

The State Department’s policy planning staff prepared the first set of possible responses back in 2004 (never pursued), and this year Ambassador Richard Williamson has privately pushed the White House to squeeze Sudan until it stops the killing.

Mr. Williamson, who is President Bush’s special envoy to Sudan, wrote a tough memo to Mr. Bush this fall outlining three particular steps the United States could take to press Sudan’s leader, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir:

• The United States could jam all communications in Khartoum, the Sudanese capital. This would include all telephone calls, all cellular service, all Internet access. After two days, having demonstrated Sudan’s vulnerability, the United States could halt the jamming.

• The United States could apply progressive pressure to Port Sudan, from which Sudan exports oil and thus earns revenue. The first step would be to send naval vessels near the port. The next step would be to search or turn back some ships, and the final step would be to impose a quarantine and halt Sudan’s oil exports.

• The United States could target Sudanese military aircraft that defy a United Nations ban on offensive military flights in Darfur. The first step would be to destroy a helicopter gunship on the ground at night. A tougher approach would be to warn Sudan that unless it complies with international demands (by handing over suspects indicted by the International Criminal Court, for example), it will lose its air force — and then if it does not comply, to destroy all its military aircraft on the ground.

Officials frustrated by the administration’s passivity shared these possible steps with me, partly to make clear that Mr. Obama can do more if he has the political will.

Mr. Williamson has been one of the unsung heroes of the Bush administration, fighting tenaciously and secretly — even twice threatening to resign — to redeem American honor by confronting genocide. President Bush himself seemed open to tougher action, officials say, but Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Stephen Hadley, the national security adviser, always resisted, backed by the Pentagon. Ms. Rice and Mr. Hadley tarnished their own honor and America’s by advocating, in effect, acquiescence in genocide.

The naysayers’ objection was simple: Those are incredibly serious steps, with grave repercussions.

They’re right. But then again, genocide is pretty serious, too.

That’s something that Mr. Obama and his aides understand. Partly for that reason, Sudan fears the Obama administration, and now for the first time in years, there’s a real chance of ousting President Bashir and ending his murderous regime.

Several factors are coming together. The leaders in Khartoum feel their government wobbling, particularly after rebels clashed with government soldiers on the outskirts of Khartoum earlier this year. They know that the International Criminal Court is expected to issue an arrest warrant for President Bashir, probably in February, but that no other top leader will be indicted after Mr. Bashir.

China, which for years has been President Bashir’s most important international supporter, now seems to be backing away — just as it eventually abandoned genocidal friends like Slobodan Milosevic and the Khmer Rouge. And an Arab state, Qatar, is now leading a serious diplomatic initiative to try to end the slaughter.

Thus there are growing whispers that key figures in the Sudanese regime may throw Mr. Bashir overboard in the coming months. The other leaders are ruthless and have blood on their hands as well, but some of them have in the past proved more willing to negotiate deals than Mr. Bashir has.

Hovering in the background is the risk that the north-south war in Sudan will resume, leading to a slaughter even worse than Darfur. One ominous sign is that Sudan is now stockpiling cash and weapons, apparently so that it can wage war on the south even if Port Sudan is blocked.

Mr. Williamson has suggested providing surface-to-air missiles to the separate government of South Sudan. Such weaponry would reduce the chance that Sudan would attack the south.

If Mr. Obama and his aides can work with Europe, China and Qatar to keep the heat on — and to make clear that Sudan has no choice but to hand over President Bashir once the court issues the arrest warrant — then we just might avert a new war and end the first genocide of the 21st century in the new year.
More on this later.

UPDATE THURSDAY JANUARY 08 2009
See next Sudan Watch post Thursday, January 08, 2009: The White House denounces Nicholas Kristof