Sudan: UN Security Council closed consultations may discuss measures to support protection of civilians

TOMORROW'S UN Security Council briefing and consultations "may provide a good opportunity for Council members to examine and have a frank discussion about potential measures that could be implemented to support PoC [protection of civilians] as well as assess existing strategies. 

In a communiqué adopted following a 9 October meeting, AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) members requested the AU Commission (the organisation’s secretariat) to reopen the AU liaison office in Port Sudan in order to facilitate the AU’s engagement with stakeholders in Sudan at all levels and to provide technical support to Sudan.

Amidst mounting protection concerns, several human rights organisations and Sudanese civil society actors have advocated for robust measures, including the deployment of protection forces in Sudan. The Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan, established by the Human Rights Council (HRC) in October 2023, recommended in its 6 September report the deployment of an independent and impartial force with a PoC mandate in Sudan.

On 18 October, the Secretary-General submitted his report (S/2024/759) pursuant to resolution 2736 of 13 June, which requested him to make recommendations for the protection of civilians (PoC) in Sudan. 

In a 25 October joint statement, officials from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and UNICEF called for intensifying the international response to match the scale of rising needs in Sudan. The reality on the ground, they said, “remains fraught with logistical and administrative barriers”, which have hindered the UN’s ability to provide aid and protection to vulnerable communities as well as effectively monitor the delivery of aid. They called for simplifying and expediting approval procedures for aid shipments and personnel, including facilitating cross-line access. The officials also called for re-establishing the UN offices in Zalingei, Central Darfur, and Kadugli, South Kordofan." 

Read more from What's In Blue 

Dated Sunday, 27 October 2024 - full copy:

Sudan: Briefing and Consultations

Tomorrow morning (28 October), the Security Council will hold an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Sudan. The meeting is being held pursuant to resolution 2715 of 1 December 2023, which requested the Secretary-General to provide a briefing every 120 days on the “UN’s efforts to support Sudan on its path towards peace and stability”. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and a civil society representative are expected to brief in the open chamber. Director of the Operations and Advocacy Division at the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Edem Wosornu and Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra will brief in the consultations.

Eighteen months into the conflict, hostilities continue unabated as the warring parties engage in a protracted war of attrition. Over the past several weeks, fighting intensified across multiple front lines as the rainy season subsided. In September, there was a severe escalation in El Fasher—the capital of North Darfur state, which has been under siege by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since May—after the RSF launched a coordinated attack on the city, followed by intensive shelling and airstrikes from both sides, resulting in civilian casualties. On 26 September, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched an offensive in Khartoum and surrounding areas in a bid to besiege areas under RSF control, making significant advances in the ensuing days. In addition, the SAF-aligned Darfur Joint Forces (a coalition of armed movements from Darfur) engaged in fighting with the RSF on several front lines in North and West Darfur states. In the past few weeks, the SAF has reportedly been able to make strategic advances in Sennar and Al Jazira states. Media reports indicate that, on 24 October, the RSF launched a retaliatory attack on villages in East Al Jazira, following the defection to the SAF of Abu Aqla Kikal, a prominent RSF commander. While some sources report that the attack killed about 50 people, others suggest that the death toll could be much higher. (For background and more information, see the brief on Sudan in our October 2024 Monthly Forecast and listen to our 4 September podcast episode.)

Tomorrow, Guterres and several Council members are expected to condemn the ongoing violence across the country and stress the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Guterres is likely to highlight that the conflict has resulted in a catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Sudan and has had destabilising effects on the region. On 18 October, the Secretary-General submitted his report (S/2024/759) pursuant to resolution 2736 of 13 June, which requested him to make recommendations for the protection of civilians (PoC) in Sudan. The report describes an alarming intensification of intercommunal and identity-based violence and highlights a significant increase in human rights violations and abuses in areas under the control of both warring parties. It outlines the widespread damage and destruction of civilian infrastructure, indiscriminate attacks carried out by the warring parties in residential neighbourhoods and sites sheltering internally displaced persons (IDPs), and the use of explosive weapons with wide-area effects. At tomorrow’s meeting, Guterres and several Council members are likely to emphasise the crucial need to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, including healthcare facilities and medical and humanitarian personnel.

Guterres is likely to focus on the recommendations outlined in his report under three broad headings: intensifying diplomacy towards ending the fighting, changing the behaviour of the warring parties, and supporting broader protection measures. The report highlights an urgent need for a renewed diplomatic push, including through the “personal involvement” of some heads of state, to ensure that the warring parties uphold their legal obligations. It calls on the warring parties and relevant stakeholders to pursue scalable, locally negotiated ceasefires and other measures to reduce violence, protect civilians, and prevent the spread of conflict. It strongly recommends that the warring parties establish a robust and transparent compliance mechanism, as a critical step to ensure implementation of the “Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan”, which was signed by both sides in Jeddah on 11 May 2023. The report calls for an immediate cessation of the direct or indirect flow of weapons and ammunitions into Sudan, which continue to fuel the conflict. Highlighting the need to monitor violations of international humanitarian law and human rights abuses, the report underlines the importance of supporting and cooperating with regional and international independent investigation bodies. It further calls on the international community to provide technical and financial support to Sudanese civil society organisations and community-based initiatives.

Amidst mounting protection concerns, several human rights organisations and Sudanese civil society actors have advocated for robust measures, including the deployment of protection forces in Sudan. The Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan, established by the Human Rights Council (HRC) in October 2023, recommended in its 6 September report the deployment of an independent and impartial force with a PoC mandate in Sudan. Some Council members are apparently exploring options for a possible deployment of an African Union (AU)-led mission and how the mission could be supported in the context of resolution 2719 of 21 December 2023 on the financing of AU-led peace support operations (AUPSOs). The Secretary-General’s report acknowledges these calls but notes that “at present, the conditions do not exist for the successful deployment of a UN force to protect civilians” in Sudan. However, it expresses the UN Secretariat’s readiness to engage with the Council and relevant stakeholders on “operational modalities”, including localised efforts feasible under the current conditions that can contribute to effectively reducing violence and protecting civilians.

Lamamra is expected to provide an update on the ongoing regional and international initiatives aimed at resolving the crisis, his engagement with key regional and international interlocutors, and his efforts to coordinate different peace initiatives. With the mediation efforts, not having achieved any breakthrough as yet, members might be interested in hearing Lamamra’s assessment of potential next steps, including strategies for enhancing cooperation among stakeholders and addressing the underlying issues hindering the peace process. Tomorrow’s closed consultations may provide a good opportunity for Council members to examine and have a frank discussion about potential measures that could be implemented to support PoC as well as assess existing strategies.

On 3 October, AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) members undertook a field mission to Port Sudan to engage with senior officials from the Sudanese authorities and other key stakeholders. In a communiqué adopted following a 9 October meeting, AUPSC members requested the AU Commission (the organisation’s secretariat) to reopen the AU liaison office in Port Sudan in order to facilitate the AU’s engagement with stakeholders in Sudan at all levels and to provide technical support to Sudan.

Wosornu is likely to highlight the spiralling humanitarian situation in the country, especially food insecurity, and describe efforts by the UN and its partners to deliver aid across Sudan. She and several Council members are likely to reiterate the critical need to ensure full, rapid, and sustained humanitarian access through all modalities and criticise impediments to such access. They may also call on the Sudanese authorities to extend the authorisation for the use of the Adre crossing at the Chad-Sudan border for humanitarian operations, which was initially authorised on 15 August for a three-month period.

In a 25 October joint statement, officials from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and UNICEF called for intensifying the international response to match the scale of rising needs in Sudan. While expressing appreciation for assurances of cooperation from the Sudanese authorities, they underlined the need to operationalise these commitments. The reality on the ground, they said, “remains fraught with logistical and administrative barriers”, which have hindered the UN’s ability to provide aid and protection to vulnerable communities as well as effectively monitor the delivery of aid. They called for simplifying and expediting approval procedures for aid shipments and personnel, including facilitating cross-line access. The officials also called for re-establishing the UN offices in Zalingei, Central Darfur, and Kadugli, South Kordofan.

Earlier this month, during negotiations on a draft press statement proposed by the UK (the penholder on Sudan), Russia apparently requested the removal of the phrase “administrative or other impediments”, arguing that it suggests that Port Sudan authorities are creating artificial barriers for aid delivery and distribution. Some members, such as France, however, contended that several obstacles remain to the delivery of aid. Continuing disagreements among members led the penholder to withdraw the draft text after four revised drafts. (For background on Council dynamics regarding the issue of humanitarian access, see the brief on Sudan in our October Monthly Forecast and 13 June What’s in Blue story.)

View original: https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/10/sudan-briefing-and-consultations-9.php

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Sudan: UN Security Council members will convene for closed consultations on 29 July 2024 at request of UK

THE Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra convened delegations from the warring parties—the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—in Geneva between 11 and 19 July to hold discussions in “proximity format”, supported by a UN integrated technical team. He aimed to discuss issues relating to measures to ensure the distribution of humanitarian assistance and options for the protection of civilians across Sudan. Lamamra is expected to provide an update to UN Security Council members tomorrow (July 29) on the ongoing efforts aimed at resolving the Sudanese crisis. Read more in a report by What's In Blue copied in full here below. 

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Related reports

#US-led #Sudan #ceasefire talks in #Switzerland 14 Aug 2024 is Sudan's last chance to save itself and its people. The US is $35 trillion in debt. #ElonMusk posted at X yesterday: "America is headed for bankruptcy fyi".
Read more at: https://t.co/2bRxub7NZb#famine #Darfur… https://t.co/5r07zq8v1f

— SUDAN WATCH (@SudanWatchBlog) July 27, 2024

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From What's In Blue* at securitycouncilreport.org
Dated Sunday, 28 July 2024. Full copy:

Sudan: Closed Consultations

Tomorrow morning (29 July), Security Council members will convene for closed consultations on Sudan, at the request of the UK (the penholder on the file). The anticipated briefers are Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra and OCHA’s Director of the Financing and Partnerships Division Lisa Doughten. Council members may consider issuing press elements following tomorrow’s meeting.

Lamamra is expected to provide an update on the ongoing efforts aimed at resolving the Sudanese crisis. The Personal Envoy convened delegations from the warring parties—the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—in Geneva between 11 and 19 July to hold discussions in “proximity format”, supported by a UN integrated technical team. He aimed to discuss issues relating to measures to ensure the distribution of humanitarian assistance and options for the protection of civilians across Sudan. In a press release issued at the end of the discussions, Lamamra said that his team held around 20 sessions with the parties’ delegations, including technical and plenary meetings, in the context of their respective mandates. He noted that, during these engagements, the delegations expressed their positions on key issues of concern, thereby deepening mutual understanding. Lamamra described the discussions as an “encouraging initial step in a longer and complex process” and welcomed the commitments announced by “one of the two parties” to enhance humanitarian assistance and the protection of civilians.

At the end of proximity talks, the RSF reportedly sent a letter to the UN Secretary-General, outlining commitments it has made, including to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries in coordination with the RSF-affiliated Sudanese Agency for Relief and Humanitarian Operations (SARHO), to strengthen civilian protection measures, and to facilitate the safe passage of individuals and supplies. Media reports quoted Salwa Adam Benya, Sudan’s Humanitarian Aid Commissioner and the head of the SAF delegation, as saying in a statement that the proximity talks offered a “promising foundation” for addressing the humanitarian crisis in the country and expressed Sudan’s commitment to cooperate with the UN “within existing national humanitarian policies”. Regarding the protection of civilians issue, however, she stressed the importance of implementing the “Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan”, signed by the warring parties on 11 May 2023.

Tomorrow, Lamamra is also expected to brief members on the second consultative meeting on enhancing coordination among the various peace initiatives on Sudan, hosted by Djibouti on 24 July. Several regional and international interlocutors attended the meeting, including Lamamra, the African Union (AU), the European Union (EU), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the League of Arab States (LAS), as well as representatives from Bahrain, Egypt, Mauritania, the US, and Saudi Arabia. The first consultative meeting was convened by the LAS in Cairo on 12 June. (For background and more information, see our 17 June What’s in Blue story.)

The Special Envoy is also likely to expand on the details of the Mediators Planning Retreat on Sudan hosted by Djibouti on 25 and 26 July, which was initially proposed by Lamamra. The meeting brought together representatives from 32 regional and international stakeholders, including the Security Council’s permanent members (P5) and its African members (Algeria, Mozambique, and Sierra Leone), Sudan’s neighbouring countries, several Gulf countries, as well as the AU, the EU, IGAD, the LAS, and the UN. A press release issued following the meeting, among other matters, stressed the importance of integrating lessons learned to inform decision-making processes and strengthening coordination and adapting strategies to respond to dynamic realities on the ground, based on:

• support for all current and future efforts to sustain high-level peace engagements;
• a commitment to cooperate on initiatives aimed at restoring peace and stability in the country and the region; and
• shared and differentiated responsibilities of existing multilateral coordination mechanisms and the recognition of their continued role and comparative advantages.

At tomorrow’s meeting, Lamamra and some members might also refer to the recent US statement inviting the Sudanese warring parties to participate in ceasefire talks to begin on 14 August in Switzerland, co-hosted by Saudi Arabia. The statement notes that the talks will include the AU, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the UN as observers. The talks aim to reach an agreement on a nationwide cessation of violence and to develop a robust monitoring and verification mechanism to ensure implementation of any agreement. The US-Saudi facilitated talks in Jeddah were indefinitely suspended after two rounds of discussions, the last of which was held in November 2023 with the participation of a joint representative of the AU and IGAD, due to the failure of the warring parties to implement their commitments. (For background, see the Sudan brief in our June 2023 Monthly Forecast and 15 November 2023 What’s in Blue story.)

Council members might also reiterate some of the points contained in their 12 July press statement, including welcoming Lamamra’s convening of the Geneva proximity talks. Some members might be interested in hearing the Personal Envoy’s assessment of the Sudanese parties’ positions and the prospects for de-escalation and further dialogue. They may also wish to learn more details about Lamamra’s engagements with key regional and international interlocutors as part of the recent mediation talks and his efforts to coordinate the different peace initiatives, as well as have a frank exchange on the way forward. Some members may also be interested in hearing his assessment of the parties’ commitments and the potential for them to be translated into concrete actions on the ground.

Doughten is expected to provide an update on the humanitarian situation in the country in light of evolving security developments. According to a 4 July OCHA flash update, the escalation of fighting in south-western Sennar state in late June has displaced more than 136,000 people, many of whom might be experiencing secondary or tertiary displacement. In a 19 July press briefing, Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Farhan Haq said that fighting in Sennar has severely affected the operations of the World Food Programme (WFP) across the region, including in White Nile, Blue Nile, Kassala, and Gedaref states. He reported that the hostilities have cut off key supply routes for food and fuel into Sennar. In addition, Haq noted that the route from Port Sudan to the city of Kosti through Sennar has been blocked, cutting off vital aid to hundreds of thousands of people, including many at risk of famine in the Kordofans and Darfur.

Doughten and several members are also expected to reiterate concerns about the dire food insecurity situation in the country. According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report on Sudan, released on 27 June, 25.6 million people across Sudan are expected to face acute levels of food insecurity—described by the IPC as crisis level conditions or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above)—between June and September. Of this total, 755,000 people are expected to face catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5) in ten states, including Greater Darfur, South and North Kordofan, Blue Nile, Al Jazirah, and Khartoum. During this period, 14 areas in nine states are expected to face a risk of famine, according to the report.

Doughten is also likely to stress the importance of ensuring full and rapid humanitarian access through all modalities—including cross-line (across conflict lines within Sudan) and cross-border (across Sudan’s borders with some of the neighbouring countries), particularly in light of the disruptions caused by heavy rains and floods in some areas. A 23 July OCHA press release said that the Tine border crossing at the Chad-Sudan border—used by UN agencies and partners to conduct humanitarian operations—as well as many other routes in the southern part of Sudan remain inaccessible to due to flooding.

Tags: Insights on Africa, Sudan (Darfur)

View original: https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/07/sudan-closed-consultations-3.php

*About What's In Blue

When the Security Council approaches the final stage of negotiating a draft resolution, the text is printed in blue. What's In Blue is a series of insights on evolving Security Council actions designed to help interested UN readers keep up with what might soon be "in blue".

END 

Sudan: SIM card frenzy in Port Sudan amid blackouts. Map of Internet availability and connectivity in Sudan

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: I am contributing to this map by adding notes such as those below. I exchanged emails with Sudanese people this week  in Khartoum and South Kordofan. Both are in the yellow part of the map. The map shows internet availability and network connection in Sudan as at 20 Feb 2024. Green - Network available . Yellow - Network blackout.

Credit: map and caption Anas Yassin

Map showing Internet availability and network connection in Sudan 20/Feb/2024 . Green - Network available . Yellow - Network blackout 

#keepeyesonsudan

Today, I exchanged emails with a Sudanese person in Gedaref State, Sudan who says, "Yes we were out of network service for many days, but it's back now. The internet is somehow difficult to access in Gedaref, there is only one telecommnications company (Sudatel) that works, besides the heavy load of data, but the situation is stable. It doesn't work in many Gedaref State localities. However, it's good in downtown and other localities which are 50 kilometres from Gedaref town. Also, Sennar and Aj Jazira State and Blue Nile are blackout. But in some areas like Central Darfur they're using Starlink satellite network. I am in Gedaref and had a visitor today from Sennar who said there is no activation of telecommunications in Sennar." 

Also, I asked "are you using a Sudatel SIM card? I've just read this report (below) and wondered if it is possible to get those SIM cards (like the ones in report) to the yellow area of the map showing internet blackout, would they work? The answer was, "Yes, I am using a Sudatel SIM card".

I asked "is electricity supply stable in Gedaref, Aj Jazirah State, Sennar and Blue Nile?" The answer says, "It's not stable in Gedaref State about 80%, I don't know about Aj Jazira State and Blue Nile, but it's not stable in Sennar."

A few days ago, someone in London commented to me they'd spoken to people in Omdurman (15 min drive from Khartoum) via WhatsApp, the people had to visit souk Libya's market for WiFi. The voice call was clear. The person in London received more calls over past week from same person, and used a phone to transfer funds to the caller in Sudan by using Bankak. 

So, going by the above: 

• internet connectivity in Khartoum does work but is patchy;
• a place in Omburdman is OK if one can visit a WiFi spot;
• a place in South Kordofan was found to be OK;
• Sennar and Blue Nile are still in blackout; 
• network doesn't work in many Gedaref State localities;
• in Aj Jazirah State there is no network, it's still in blackout;
• 50 miles from Gedaref town there are downtown areas and localities where connectivity is good;
• in some parts of Central Darfur, Starlink is being used;
• electricity is not stable 80% of time in Gederaf State; don't know about Aj Jazirah State;
• electricity is not stable in Sennar.

My next step is to search for news on Sennar, Blue Nile, Gedaref State localities, Central Darfur to learn how people in those areas are managing in blackout and find out if anyone has received/sent a voice call/text/voicemail.

Meanwhile, if anyone affected by telecoms problems in Sudan, and the cost of running a phone, is reading this and can add further details - no matter how small - please email or post at X #keepeyesonsudan.

Going by what I have gathered so far, the telecoms situation in Sudan is extremely alarming and worrying for those living in the yellow part of the map. How are they getting news, help, food, water, meds, electricity? It's like they have been thrown back into the Stone Age. It is totally unacceptable.

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My comment posted at the map

Thanks for posting this visual. What is the source of the data? Does it include all telecoms/TV/landline telephony/mobile comms telcos/internet connectivity? A few days ago I received messages via LinkedIn from reliable sources inside Khartoum itself and in South Kordofan. If the map is accurate, maybe there's a tiny minority in the orange sections who have access to Starlink or something that is not available to the majority. If the orange section shows areas suffering a near total blackout, I am shocked and surprised there has not been a loud outcry. Are you currently located in White Nile? If so, are you and the folks you know in White Nile in total blackout? White Nile is in orange section. 

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Report from Radio Tamazuj - Port Sudan
Dated Tuesday 20 February 2024 - here is a copy in full:

Sudani SIM card frenzy in Port Sudan amid service cuts

Hundreds of Sudanese citizens flocked to the Sudani Telecommunications Company headquarters in Port Sudan to get their hands on the company’s special communication SIM cards. This surge in demand follows weeks of complete communication service interruption in Sudan, a result of the ongoing war in the country.

Speaking to Radio Tamazuj Monday, Haired Abdel Salam, a Sudanese citizen, said: “I’ve been attempting to acquire a Sudani SIM for four days now. It’s not about getting a new SIM; rather, I’m trying to restore my old one.” He expressed difficulty in accessing the service due to the large crowds.

Mohammed Mustafa also recounted his visit to Sudani Communications Services, stating, “I needed to obtain a SIM card for the first time because of the communication outage. However, I was taken aback by the overwhelming number of people waiting for the service.” He noted the high cost of the service, even when attempting to acquire it from outside the company premises.

Meanwhile, the Executive Director of the Sudanese Telecommunications Company (Sudani), Engineer Majdi Mohammed Abdullah, stated that over the past five months, despite the loss of the billing system, the company has persevered in its efforts to provide services without charge. Emphasizing the importance of sustaining operations despite the incurred losses, Abdullah highlighted the commitment to continue working despite the challenges faced by the company.

In recent months, Sudan has experienced a complete halt in telecommunications services, impacting both communication and internet services. This situation has raised concerns, particularly with the interruption of essential banking services that citizens rely on, given the wartime conditions. Additionally, various other services dependent on the internet in Sudan have been affected.

View original: https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/sudani-sim-card-frenzy-at-port-sudan-amidst-service-cuts

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UPDATE by Sudan Watch Editor on 25 Feb 2024, added the following:

Sudan Watch - February 12, 2024

NetBlocks: Major internet disruption in Chad, severed fibre optic cable supplying Chad from Cameroon

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/netblocks-major-internet-disruption-in.html

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Sudan Watch - February 10, 2024

URGENT MESSAGE to Sir Tim Berners-Lee: The internet belongs to everyone including the Sudanese

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/urgent-message-to-sir-tim-berners-lee.html

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Sudan Watch - February 08, 2024

Sudan hit by internet blackout as conflict continues

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/sudan-hit-by-internet-blackout-as.html

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Sudan Watch - April 23, 2023

Sudan almost completely disconnected from Internet

Just 2% of all Internet users in Sudan have web connectivity at present

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2023/04/sudan-almost-completely-disconnected.html

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Sudan Watch - June 24, 2019

Sudan internet shutdown has a projected cost of more than $1 billion, and will continue for three months

NetBlocks, an organization that tracks Internet freedom around the world, described the blackout as a “near-total restriction on the flow of information in and out of Sudan for a significant portion of the population.”

https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2019/06/sudan-internet-shutdown-has-projected.html

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END

‘No diplomatic end to Sudan’s war in sight' -Baldo

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Peace meetings between Messrs Burhan and Hemeti could happen as soon as Hemeti makes his fighters leave Khartoum and move out of the residential homes and properties they've commandeered in Khartoum. It's as simple as that. Once that happens, Gen. Burhan said (many times) he will attend ceasefire and peace talks. The fact that none of it has happened proves Hemeti is not genuine in wanting peace and security for the people of Sudan. He wants Sudan and what's left of it by the time he's hauled off to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

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From Radio Dabanga
Dated Friday, 12 January 2024; 18:00 NEW YORK - here is a copy in full:

‘No diplomatic end to Sudan’s war in sight,’ warns Suliman Baldo

Map of Sudan showing areas under SAF (in red) and RSF (in yellow) control as of December 21, 2023 (Source: @ThomasVLinge via X)

As the war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) soon enters its ninth month, there remains no tangible end in sight to the widespread suffering endured by the country and its people. That is despite a flurry of diplomatic mediation efforts, says prominent Sudanese researcher Suliman Baldo.

In his analysis ‘Sudan’s Interminable War, published by the International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives on Tuesday, conflict resolution expert Suliman Baldo* observes that while both the SAF and the RSF “initially believed they would crush the other in days”, the conflict has dragged on into “multiple localised ethnically driven clashes beyond either party’s control”.

On the ground, the RSF has succeeded in expanding its territorial control in Darfur, Kordofan, and Khartoum, while SAF remains in control of northern, central, and eastern regions, including de-facto administrative capital Port Sudan. In December, an RSF offensive “wrestled the central Gezira state from the army’s control and threatened its presence in the White Nile and Sennar states”.

The war unmasked SAF’s ineptitude, Baldo asserts, “as its senior commanders became too steeped in grand corruption practices to pay attention to the decay of SAF as a fighting force”.

Their adversary, the RSF, is “ethnically aligned, with plunder as the main motivation of its fighters”. The paramilitary force “proved incapable of providing for the population” in El Gezira after it took over the former safe haven for those who fled Khartoum and El Obeid in the early days of the war.

At the end of December, the Wad Madani Resistance Committees lamented the deterioration of security, health and humanitarian conditions in El Gezira, continued attacks by the RSF, the lack of functional hospitals, and the ongoing waves of displacement in the state.

The region is divided over Sudan. Sudanese policy analyst Kholood Khair and civil society activist Asmahan Akam wrote in Time magazine in December that “Egypt, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia support the SAF while the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a UN Security Council member, backs the RSF in seeming violation of the body’s own arms embargo on Darfur, first enacted in 2004 and just renewed (with a yes vote from the UAE) in March 2023”.

‘No tangible solution’

The SAF, with junta leader Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan at its head, conditions a ceasefire on the RSF evacuating private and residential areas. Baldo explains that this is most likely to be rejected by the latter, as it maintains a tactical advantage in doing so, especially in Khartoum where it continues to lay siege to several SAF command stations.

Whilst ongoing conflict threatens SAF’s collapse, Baldo believes, “a traffic jam of diplomatic initiatives” has yet to bring forth any sustainable nor tangible end to the conflict.

The Jeddah talks, facilitated by the US and Saudi Arabia, stalled due to belligerents’ failures to honour commitments. The United Nations (UN) “was relegated to an observer’s seat as Sudan unilaterally terminated its political mission”, whereas “offers of mediation by Russia, Turkey, and a Sudan neighbours’ initiative launched by Egypt in July failed to generate traction because the RSF declined to cooperate with any”.

By the end of 2023, the Horn of Africa Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), whose members include Djibouti, Kenya, the Sudans, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea, emerged as a lead mediator for a humanitarian ceasefire and civilian-led political negotiations.

IGAD convened in Djibouti in early December, for an extraordinary assembly session on the situation in Sudan, where members agreed to redouble efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution, including mediating head-to-head talks between El Burhan and RSF commander ‘Hemedti’.

“However, several challenges emerged in the final days of 2023 and early 2024 that risk derailing the IGAD’s role in these processes.”

Hours after the IGAD communiqué of the summit was released, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs initially denied El Burhan’s agreement to meet with Hemedti without conditions, stating that the communiqué’s content “was not based on consensus nor legally binding.”

Baldo notes that the FA Ministry is “dominated by Islamist allies of the SAF” who are most likely behind the initial rejection of the offer. El Burhan later agreed to meet with Hemedti.

Another challenge facing IGAD’s role is the official reception and hospitality received by Hemedti during his Africa tour, in which he was hosted by the heads of four IGAD member states, including chairperson Ismail Guelleh, the President of Djibouti.

“Hemedti’s reception as a visiting dignitary bestowed on him a diplomatic legitimacy that provoked the ire of the SAF, and made less likely that Burhan would agree to meet with him under the IGAD’s auspices after this slight”, the expert explained.

Last June, Sudan’s Sovereignty Council, chaired by El Burhan, declared that “Kenya is not neutral and is home to RSF rebel leaders”.

Last week, acting FA Minister Ali El Sadig announced that Sudan summoned the Kenyan ambassador to protest against the official reception of Hemedti by the Kenyan president.

* Dr Suliman Baldo is an expert in justice, human rights and conflict resolution in Africa and served as the Africa head of International Crisis group, the International Center for Transitional Justice, and has also held human rights and mediation posts in the United Nations. He has provided expert advice on human rights in Mali and Darfur and currently leads the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker. (Source: International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives website)

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Sudanese in El Gedaref are arming themselves ‘despite hate of Islamists’

View original: https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/no-diplomatic-end-to-sudans-war-in-sight-warns-suliman-baldo

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