Who is next in line to chair the African Union: is it likely to be the President of Sudan el Bashir?

A report at Mmegi Online today Jan 14 says - quote:

"The Chairman of the African Union is likely to be the President of Sudan, el Bashir who has yet to stop killing in Darfur. The AU has not yet committed peace keepers to the Sudan. The Sudanese Government has recently signed an Agreement with John Garang's Southerners, but this will be the second time, because an earlier Agreement failed, resulting in continuation of civil war there."

Can anyone confirm this? Surely it's not possible for Sudan to chair meetings concerning AU troops for Darfur. Sudan has refused all offers of help with security. Only after its arm was twisted by the AU, did it agree to AU troops on condition there were no more than 3,000 and would be hamstrung without a mandate to act as a protection force for anyone other than UN observers.

Forgive me for being suspicious here, but could the delay in AU troops getting to Darfur have anything to do with leaders within the African Union being chummy with Sudan and stringing along the international community? I am finding it difficult to trust anything that is going on with Africa and its politics right now.

News reports give no rational explanation for the delay in the appearance of 2,000 AU troops promised for Darfur. The only explanation I have found so far is a news report saying the delay is due to lack of "accommodation" for AU troops in Darfur - which sounds odd because they could use military tents. I've yet to find a report detailing how and when American contractors set up accommodation for the AU troops currently serving in Darfur.

UN reports fresh attacks by armed militias in Darfur, Sudan

A UN mission report yesterday says new attacks on NGOs occurred Jan 11.

Kofi Annan warns in his latest report Jan 7 to the Security Council on Darfur that the overall security situation in the region remains poor and political negotiations between the Sudanese Government and rebel groups have reached a stalemate.

The report says aid workers are increasingly at risk of violent attacks, armed groups are re-arming in defiance of previous Council resolution, and the conflict appears to be spreading into the neighbouring state of Western Kordofan.

Time for a no-fly zone over Darfur in Sudan?

A report via Reuters Jan 13 says Sudan defends its use of military aircraft in Darfur.

Bearing in mind that a UN resolution in November said Khartoum had the primary responsibility to protect its population -- and Sudan did everything it could to ensure any AU troops entering Sudan were low in number and hamstrung -- and Jan Pronk, UN envoy to Sudan, called on Khartoum a few days ago to stop military flights -- here is the excuse Sudan's foreign minister Moustafa Osman Ismail gave for carrying out a recent air attack:


Sudan's foreign minister Moustafa Osman Ismail (AP).

"The government used aircraft. According to the Security Council resolution, the government is responsible for protecting routes and protecting civilians," Ismail told reporters in Cairo. "If the African forces there cannot protect routes and protect civilians, then the Sudanese government must undertake that," Ismail said, adding that the government had a right to use planes in an area larger than France.

Ismail said the government did not carry out aerial bombardments but would investigate such accusations. "When we use aircraft, we do not use aerial bombardment. We do not use planes that drop bombs. This is different from helicopter gunship aircraft," he said. Ismail said that if key routes were cut because of rebel ceasefire violations then the government would not be able to deliver food and other supplies to the population.
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Hopefully, a no-fly zone will be one of the options under consideration by the UN Security Council when the findings of the UN investigation into genocide in Darfur are made public around January 25. As reported here earlier, Darfur peace talks were tentatively set for January 28 but another press report mentioned February 1. See how the days turn into weeks, and the weeks into months, and the months into years, while 10,000 die in the camps each month?

US Ambassador Danforth says sanctions are still on the table

Going by what US Ambassador John Danforth and others say in a Washington File report Jan 12 there is no mention of a no-fly zone for Darfur.

The following is an excerpt from the report that gives an insight into what is being put forward to the UN Security Council. Who knows how much will change around Jan 25 when the UN makes public the findings of its investigation into genocide in Darfur:

Mr Danforth says that "sanctions are still on the table." Sanctions were discussed during the session, Danforth noted. Even though some council members are opposed to sanctions as a general principle, "it may be possible to fashion" sanctions in a way that would be agreeable to a majority of council members, he said.

The peace agreement, he pointed out, "has ended a war that has lasted more than two decades and that has claimed more than 2 million lives, and people are pushing that off the front page as though nothing had happened last Sunday [January 9]. Something big happened last Sunday and it was due in large part to the engagement of the United States in this process."

Pronk said that the North-South peace process can be applied to Darfur and "it must."

"We can make it work," he said. "It is hard to imagine that the peace dividend promised by the Nairobi agreement will be reaped without an end to the suffering in Darfur," Pronk said. "International aid will not flow and, more important, in Sudan itself, the achievement will turn out to be vulnerable." As long as there is war in some part of Sudan, resources will be spent on weapons, not welfare, he said, and "investors will be reluctant, entrepreneurs will hesitate, young people with brains and initiative will want to leave the country, displaced people will wander around."

Offering several suggestions that could encourage a peace agreement, Pronk said that the government and rebels in Darfur must be pressured, reasoned with, and offered alternatives to the status quo.

Suggestions included: As a show of good will, the government and rebel movements should all withdraw behind reasonable and well-defined lines with African Union troops moving in to protect the areas; the government should make a new start in disarming the Jingaweit; the rebel movement should agree not to block or disrupt peaceful seasonal movements of nomadic tribes and their cattle; and the parties must identify practical means to provide basic needs such as food to their forces in order to lessen the urge to steal, loot and kill.

He urged the international community to "do whatever is required to accelerate the rate of deployment of AU troops."

Danforth also mentioned the possibility of adding international police protection in the camps, and Pronk suggested that the number of human rights monitors in the region be increased from 20 to 150.

The security situation in Darfur is bad and the humanitarian situation poor, Pronk told the council. Violence has spread into the camps for displaced persons and is directly affecting humanitarian workers as well; refugees are not returning in sufficient numbers to plant sustainable crops; and livestock is being lost on a huge scale, he said.

Sudan urges complete deployment of AU troops to Darfur

An Associated Press report Jan 13 quotes Sudan's foreign minister Moustafa Osman Ismail Thursday as saying his government is awaiting the arrival of more AU troops to monitor a truce in Darfur. Ismail, responding to questions about government military action in Darfur despite a Nov 9 ceasefire, said Khartoum had to do something to protect the civilians.

"If the African troops can't defend the roads and civilians, the government must do that," he said. "We can't leave the rebels to cut the roads that reach (the 5 million civilians in Darfur)."

Ismail said Khartoum is investigating allegations that government planes bombed rebel positions in Sayeh, outside the North Darfur state capital of El Fasher, on Jan 3.

"This is not Sudanese government policy. If we are absolutely sure, the punished will be the officer who carried this out, or his leader who ordered this," Ismail told The Associated Press. "If it has happened, it is a mistake."

Also, he said: "... All this reaffirms the unwavering position of the Sudanese government, because we know that without dealing with the Darfur issue, we will not be able to benefit from the momentum of the peace signing in the south. Therefore, we are concerned to reach peace in Darfur."
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Note, Khartoum argued against ANY troops entering Sudan to help provide security. It set the maximum limit of 3,000 AU soldiers on condition the troops were hamstrung without a full mandate to protect. It is interesting to see a Sudanese offficial quote the number of 5 million civilians in Darfur. Where are all these people and how are they managing? 5 million is roughly the number of people living in London. With regards to the last sentence above, replace the word "momentum" with "development aid" to get at the truth of what Ismail is really saying. As reported here earlier, the massive amount of development aid promised to Sudan by the international community will only be paid out when progress has been made on Darfur, not directly after the signing of the recent peace treaty.

Chad-Sudan: A third rebel movement the NMRD has appeared in Darfur

A report by IRIN Jan 13 says the main rebel groups in Darfur view the newly formed rebel group National Movement for Reform and Development (NMRD) as a stooge of the authorities in Khartoum.

The report explains the NMRD claims to be a breakaway movement from JEM, one of the main rebel groups in Darfur. NMRD leader said his group broke away from JEM in April last year because it disagreed with Tourabi, an Islamic fundamentalist politician, over the rebel movement. Tourabi helped Sudan's current president, seize power in a 1989 coup and subsequently became an influential figure in his administration. However, the two men fell out 10 years later and Tourabi went into opposition.

Note, the report also says that Khartoum's talks with the NMRD in Chad appear to have made rapid progress: the two sides agreed a ceasefire on 17 December and on 3 January they struck a deal to promote the return of refugees from Chad to areas which the NMRD claims to control.

Ahmad Allami, an adviser of Chadian President Idriss Deby who has acted as a mediator in several rounds of peace talks with all three rebel movements in Darfur, said the NMRD were a force to be taken seriously. He estimated that the movement had about 1,000 fighters on the ground. "Contrary to what has been said, the NMRD do represent something in Darfur as they managed to prompt a number of Sudanese refugees to return to Sudan," Allami told IRIN.

A western diplomat based in N'Djamena also cautioned that the breakaway rebel movement should not be dismissed too lightly. "Our indications are that the NMRD should not be under-estimated since a sizeable part of JEM's military capacity appears to be under their control," he told IRIN.



The main rebel groups in Darfur view the NMRD as a stooge of the authorities in Khartoum. "This group belongs to the Sudanese government ... it is very strange that the government negotiates with itself," said a JEM negotiator at the currently suspended Darfur peace talks in Abuja. (Photo IRIN)

UNHCR stress that they have no plans to repatriate any refugees in the short term

The above post that features a report from IRIN JUan 13 points out that Tine in Chad is the border settlement where the NMRD signed a deal that was supposed to lead to refugees returning voluntarily to Darfur.

Also, the report explains that Ahmad Allami, an adviser of Chadian President Idriss Deby who has acted as a mediator in several rounds of peace talks with all three rebel movements in Darfur, said the NMRD were a force to be taken seriously. He estimated that the movement had about 1,000 fighters on the ground. "Contrary to what has been said, the NMRD do represent something in Darfur as they managed to prompt a number of Sudanese refugees to return to Sudan," Allami told IRIN.

A UNHCR official in eastern Chad said some refugees had been making brief trips across the border to benefit from money and assistance packages offered by the Sudanese authorities to returning refugees. But once they had grabbed their cash and food parcels they hurried back into Chad, he added.

"All refugees questioned by the UN say they do not want to go back," he told IRIN. He stressed that UNHCR had no plans to repatriate any of them in the short term.

Note: The report states nearly a third of Darfur's six million inhabitants have been forced to leave their homes, mainly as a result of raids on black African villages by Arab nomads grouped in the pro-government Janjawid militia movement; and the UN estimates that 1.65 million are internally displaced and a further 200,000 have fled to Chad.



The Sudanese refugees in Kourbileke, eastern Chad 4 Feb 2004 - Chad-Sudan: Darfur's invisible refugees living rough in eastern Chad - IRIN.

Sudan's tribal leaders and other groups to be included in political dialogue on Darfur

Continuing on from the above post that features a report by IRIN Jan 13, here is an excerpt that hints at including other groups besides the SLA and JEM in the political dialogue to bring peace to Darfur:

Briefing the UN Security Council on Tuesday this week, Jan Pronk, the UN envoy to Sudan, made no reference to the NMRD as a player in the Darfur conflict. But he warned that security situation was still bad, the humanitarian situation was poor and the region was still in a political stalemate.

Pronk accused the rival factions in Darfur of re-arming and pointed to a recent increase in banditry and looting. He also drew attention to the recent spread of armed conflict to the neighbouring province of Khordofan. And the UN envoy was dismissive of all agreements signed so far to bring an end to the fighting.

"Talks between the parties on Darfur have not yielded concrete results or much narrowing of the gap on the issues concerned," Pronk said. "Despite regular statements to the contrary, the parties have yet to commit in practice to the implementation of the humanitarian ceasefire (agreed in April 2004)."

However, hinting at the need to include other groups besides the SLA and JEM in the political dialogue, Pronk said: "It would be useful to start thinking of including tribal leaders in finding political solutions even before reconciliation has taken place. That may include tribes that so far were beyond control by the government or by the rebel movements and were fighting to protect their own interests."

Could that perhaps point to a role for the NMRD in the overall negotiating process?

Allami, the Chadian mediator, also advised that the peacebrokers in Darfur should cast their net wider. "We should involve all the political and military forces in a definitive and global settlement of the crisis in Darfur," he told IRIN.



Soldiers in a miltary unit calling themselves variously the Border Intelligence Division, Second Reconnaisance Brigade, or the Quick and the Horrible, also believed to form part of the Janjaweed militia, walk around the weekly animal market in Mistiria in North Darfur, Sudan, Oct. 5, 2004 (AP) - courtesy Sudan Tribune.

For too long the Arab World has ignored areas adjacent to sub-Saharan Africa

Mustafa El-Feki, in a piece at Al-Ahram Weekly Jan 13, 2005, titled New leaders, old ideas writes "there is no point in becoming excited over a change in leadership if it is not accompanied by a change in direction." He is chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the People's Assembly and on the Sudan writes the following:

The situation in southern Sudan is a result of the Arab World's habitual shortsightedness. For too long we have ignored the areas adjacent to sub-Saharan Africa. The poverty and depravation I saw during a recent visit to southern Sudan was appalling. The only visible contribution the Arabs have made to the inhabitants of southern Sudan appeared to be a mosque constructed by King Farouk, and the Kuwaiti Hospital in Juba. This remiss is particularly deplorable when we consider that the southern portion of Sudan is the Arab world's African gateway.

Just when a peaceful settlement to the Sudanese civil war appeared possible another nightmare scenario erupted. The crisis of Darfur in western Sudan has attracted the concern of the international community and stirred vehement condemnation in the international media. Sadly, on this issue new Arab leaders continue to tread all too familiar paths.

The question of the Western Sahara remains one of the most intractable Arab-African problems, as well as a long-lasting sore point between Algeria and Morocco. Rabat's reaction to South Africa's demand that it recognise the Saharan republic, combined with its withdrawal from inter-African cooperation within the framework of the OAU, underscores the potentially explosive situation in this corner of the Arab world.

Hotel Rwanda, PBS and BBC's New Killing Fields in Darfur

American blogger Bill, aka Black River Eagle, writes a great piece highlighting Jim Moore's post re PBS Frontline World Show.

For further reading on the BBC documentary that Bill also writes about, see my post at Passion of the Present titled "The New Killing Fields in Darfur."

Also, please note Jim's review of Hotel Rwanda, a must-see film experience, and list of cinemas showing Hotel Rwanda, effective January 9, 2005 at 23 cities in the US and Canada. I must check if the film is available on DVD so I can view it on my PowerBook.

Candlelight vigil for Darfur Sudan

Last month, American blogger and law student John Fitzgerald attended a candlelight vigil in New York for Darfur and kindly wrote a post to share with us.

Yesterday, John emailed to say he would be attending the next vigil in New York, this coming Monday, and will ensure his camera works this time to take photos for posting here. John's bar exam is next month, here's wishing him all the best.

Chris at Explanada provides details of the vigil to be held 5.00 pm Monday at Dag Hammarskjold Park, UN Plaza.

All of us, anywhere in the world, can light a candle on Monday at 5.00 pm NYC time in memory of the two million Sudanese who have lost their lives, and stand in solidarity with the four million victims of rape, slavery, and displacement. Give meaning to "Never Again."



Displaced people wait to receive food supplies from the UN World Food Program in Kalma Camp, near Nyala town in Sudan's southern Darfur region. (AFP/File/Jose Cendon) Jan 11, 2005.

Sudan peace deal 'bad' for Darfur

A few reports from the BBC say the Sudan peace deal is 'bad' for Darfur.

Darfur rebel group JEM suggest that government of Sudan troops not needed after the peace deal with the south are being re-deployed to areas in Darfur now classed as peaceful.

Colonel Omar Adam, leader of JEM rebel group in Darfur, told the BBC that Sudan's government is "preparing for war".
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Sudanese president's peace tour

With a peace treaty in hand (that he did not personally sign) Sudan's president Omar el-Bashir began a triumphant tour of his country Monday, Jan 10, 2005, greeted by thousands of revellers. A report in the Guardian yesterday describes how the president, wearing a long, white chieftain's shirt over his safari suit, stopped and restarted his speech several times when onlookers regularly broke into deafening applause and began waiving white pieces of cloth in signs of peace.

"Our ultimate goal is a united Sudan, which will not be built by war but by peace and development," el-Bashir said. "You, the southerners, will be saying, 'We want a strong and huge state, a united Sudan.'"

"The money which we have been spending on war will now be spent on services and development in the south," el-Bashir said from his heavily guarded podium.



Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir holds aloft a bird symbolising peace at a rally in Juba, Sudan Monday, Jan. 10, 2005. He visited the southern town of Malakal as part of a tour of the region to publicise the deal. He told more than 10,000 local people who packed the stadium to celebrate the end of a war: "From now on, there will be no more fighting, but development and prosperity." (AP Photo/Abd Raouf)
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Reactions vary to south Sudan peace treaty

Learthen Dorsey, associate professor of African studies at University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said he does not believe the peace agreement will work out, says a report in the Daily Nebraskan. The peace agreement requires the government to remove its troops from the South and the SPLA to pull out of the North. But, he said, nothing really forces the Sudanese government to stand by its promise.

"United Nations is too weak to force the compliance," he said. "It has to have some kind of influence from the United States, Great Britain as a former colonial power and the United Nations."

Note, In 1972, the Sudanese government and civil groups signed an agreement and finished a 17-year-long civil war, but the government broke the treaty.



A Sudanese artist in Juba drawing the Sudanese national flag over which a caption in Arabic reading 'yes for peace and love' while a small boy stands by observing in Juba, Sudan, Sunday, Jan 9, 2005.
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Quotations of the Day January 9, 2005

"This is a glorious day for the Sudan," President Omar Hassan al-Bashir said before an audience of African leaders and western diplomats. "It's not only a deal that ended a protracted war of untold suffering, but it is a new contract for all Sudanese."

"It's a big day but I'm not euphoric," said John C. Danforth, the American ambassador to the United Nations and President Bush's former special envoy to Sudan. "It's like climbing Mount Everest. You reach one pinnacle and there are ranges of mountains behind." via NYT

David Mozersky, the Sudan analyst for the International Crisis Group, said "The same Government that signed this deal is still carrying out attacks on civilians in Darfur. Unless the fighting stops, it will be very difficult for the country to move from a culture of war to a culture of peace."

Lazaro Sumbeiywo, the Kenyan general who acted as chief mediator during the talks, called the deal "a precious child to nurture with love and care."



Sudan's President Omar El-Bashir (partly hidden-L) shakes hands with the country's main rebel leader John Garang (R) next to Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki after signing the long awaited peace accord in Nairobi 09 January 2005. (AFP/Simon Maina)
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Can Garang make a successful transition to government?

John Garang, new First Vice-President of Sudan (taking over from VP Taha) will report directly to Sudan's President Bashir. The day before yesterday said he did not want to be associated with violence or fight any more Sudanese. He said the best way to get things done is through talks and negotiation.

A day later, he is quoted as saying: "It is exactly 42 years since I first left for the bush to begin the first war. I hope I will not go back to the bush again, but I am a guerrilla and I take my time. The union would be dissolved amicably after the six year interim period."

"If they fail in creating a Sudan of equality, then the best option would be to look at other solutions such as splitting the country into smaller states, we must have full devolution of power, otherwise the country may not move forward," Garang warned. [via SudanTribune]



Can John Garang make a successful transition to government after fighting in the bush for 42 years?
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Norwegian minister lauded for peace work in Sudan

Bravo to the Norwegians for building a great reputation, and quite a little industry, on successful peace brokering. And doing very well at it too, thank God. We need many more of them to apply their peace making skills in the hotspots of the world.

A report from Aftenposten Norway Jan 11 says Hilde Frafjord Johnson, Norway's government minister in charge of foreign aid, was the subject of much praise over the weekend, for her role in helping bring about a peace pact in Sudan. She took part in the signing ceremony for the peace agreement and signed it as a witness on behalf of the Norwegian Government, along with British Minister Hilary Benn and US Secretary of State Colin Powell.

"Hilde is fantastic," guerrilla leader John Garang told newspaper VG. "She deserves the Nobel Peace Prize."

Others were equally appreciative. "There's no doubt that... Johnson has played a decisive role in the process that led to this outstanding agreement," said government representative Ali Osman Taha.

Garang added that without Johnson's "engagement and abilities, we never would have succeeded. Norway has also given great humanitarian aid to southern Sudan."

The report states that Norway, the US and the UK worked closely together to get the Islamic north and the Christian south to put down their weapons.


Foreign aid minister Hilde Frafjord Johnson, right, at a meeting with the recent Nobel Peace Prize winner Wangari Maathai.
(Photo: Hakon Mosvold Larsen/Scanpix)
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Darfur combatants lay down guns for polio campaign

The Guardian confirms that on Monday, combatants temporarily laid down their guns to let about 5,000 health and humanitarian workers and volunteers begin immunizing 1.3 million Darfur children against polio.

I wonder how they got the word out? See how BOTH sides are capable of ceasing violence. Janjaweed included: how did Khartoum manage that so easily?

The three-day polio program, which will see 40,000 people immunizing 6 million children across the country, is being coordinated by the Sudanese Health Ministry, World Health Organization and the United Nations children fund, UNICEF. Another 1.9 million children living in SPLA-controlled southern Sudan will begin being immunized Jan. 17.

Polio re-emerged last year after its eradication in 2001. Some 112 people have been detected with the virus in 17 of Sudan's 26 states.



A child is administered with a polio vaccine. Sudan said it had issued an order to halt all military operations in the stricken Darfur region during a nationwide three-day polio vaccination campaign. Interesting to see how Khartoum can rein in its militias when it wants to. (AFP/File/Pius Utomi Ekpei)
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UN Security Council considers 9 ,000 -10,000 peacekeepers for south Sudan

A report in the Guardian Jan 11 says the UN Security Council said Monday it would speedily consider sending peacekeepers to Sudan to support the new peace deal. Note this is part of the peace deal for southern Sudan and does not encompass Darfur in western Sudan.

Jan Pronk, the top UN envoy to Sudan, is expected to brief the security council on a peacekeeping force Tuesday. He said last month that if a peace agreement was reached, he envisioned Security Council adoption of a resolution in the third week of January authorising a wide ranging UN peacekeeping and peace-building mission, hopefully with 9,000 to 10,000 troops of which a number may be British. There are reports that India may contribute troops.


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AU Security Council calls for AU troops in Darfur by end of month

AU Peace and Security Council called on Khartoum yesterday to draw its forces back to the positions they held before a major offensive in the area last month, says Turkish Press Jan 11. The council urged the Darfur rebels to communicate their positions to the ceasefire commission and called for more AU troops on the ground by the end of the month.
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Secretary Annan should resign in protest says US lawmaker

Congress News today quotes U.S. lawmaker Wolf as saying: "As a son of Africa" [Annan is Ghanaian] and a Nobel Peace Prize recipient, Annan should use his "power and prestige to make a passionate plea to the Security Council to deal effectively on Sudan."

Wolf said he cringed at the thought of girls in Darfur "being raped practically before our eyes" and declared, "We cannot continue the status quo. If the Security Council fails to take meaningful action, Secretary Annan should resign in protest."

Mr Wolf said he understood this was "an unusual request to make but I believe these actions could turn the world's attention back to Darfur. Resigning out of protest is an act of great moral leadership and the world would respect his actions."
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Africa silent on the Tsunami victims

New Vision online, Uganda's leading daily, publishes a perspective of a Ugandan in Canada: Opiyo Oloya. It would be interesting to know how much China and the Arab world donated for the Asian tsumani victims. Japan was most generous, donating 500 million dollars, I believe.

Sudan's 'Peace' Protocols: Permanent Peace or Piece by Piece?

By Omar Hassan al-Bashir, Sudanese President, published in Views Section at IslamOnline, January 9, 2005.
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UPDATE Jan 11: Thanks to Bill for pointing out in the comments here that the above link to President Bashir's report of January 9 now leads to a report titled "Framework for Peace or Blueprint for Disintegration?" dated January 10 by Kareem M. Kamel.

Regrettably, I did not take a screenshot of the first report. Clearly, the page has now changed with Kamel's report. Interestingly, the new report does contain elements of the first report. Even the title has been inserted into a section towards the end of the report. The only thing I did extract from the first report titled "Sudan's 'Peace' Protocols: Permanent Peace or Piece by Piece?" (that was clearly billed as being by the Sudanese President and made no mention of Kamel) is this:

"Consequently, by not putting regulations on the use of oil wealth and allowing both sides to purchase weapons with the oil revenues at their disposal, the combatants can quickly expand their military capabilities and renew the conflict anytime."
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Note, I think this would be a good place to point to A Little Red Blog who asks the following good question. [I'd already thought the same question, which is why the above extract from Bashir's report caught my eye as I planned to write a post around it]:

"Now we'll have a better armed south, the existing northern forces and a new force made up of both but loyal to whom?"

A brief look at the Sudan peace process and agreement

The new interim unity government, and a new regional authority to be run by Garang called the Government of South Sudan, will have its work cut out to develop the south to a level where southerners warm to Khartoum.

Christopher at Mayflower Hill blog writes two great essays explaining why he does not believe there will be peace in the Sudan. He feels we should all be pessimistic and sceptical about Sudan's prospects for peace along the terms of the Naivasha Protocal signed today which, he says, mirrors the Addis Abab agreement of 1972.

Christopher's first essay, entitled "Hoodwinked", is dated January 3, 2005. The second essay, entitled "Historical Parallels" can be found in a post at Mayflower Hill dated January 8, 2005 [apologies unable to link the post].
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A brief look at the Sudan peace process and agreement

The following is a brief look at the peace agreement reached between the government of Sudan and the southern rebels, the Sudan People's Liberation Army, which will cover the next six years.

RELIGIOUS FREEDOM: The 10 states in southern Sudan will be secular, while the north will practice Islamic law.

POWER SHARING: Former rebels will hold 30 percent of national posts, the south will be autonomous.

WEALTH SHARING: Oil revenues from the south will be split 50-50 between the north and south.

SOUTHERN SELF DETERMINATION: The south will vote on independence in 2011.

MONITORING: U.N. observers will monitor a cease-fire and demobilization of troops.

Please click here for a brief introduction to the peace process in southern Sudan.

[via ReliefWeb via Xinhua via COMTEX]

Further reading:

Amnesty international UK - Sudan: North-South peace deal signed, but what about human rights?
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Limited opportunities in Sudan as most of the prospective acreage has been taken by non-Western companies

In a hurry yesterday, I extracted the following editorial from a Jan 8 news article but misplaced the link/source:

"Even if the conflict in Darfur is not related to the oil issue, the fact that the country is experiencing a humanitarian crisis due to conflict cannot be overlooked by anyone," said Christine Batruch, vice president of corporate responsibility at Sweden's Lundin Petroleum AB. She said Lundin, which has reduced its activities in Sudan but retains an interest in one block, would plan its activities for 2005 after the signing of the north-south deal. But she added: "Most of the prospective acreage has been taken by non-Western companies and as such there are limited opportunities."

Total said in December it had reached a deal with the government to update terms on a block it operated until security issues forced it to suspend activities in 1985, but added that operations could only resume once peace was restored. "The conflict in Darfur could potentially impact security in the south, in which case we would have to assess the situation," a spokesman said from Paris. Talk of imposing sanctions on Sudan over the Darfur conflict has added to uncertainty. But analysts said China, with its interests in Sudanese oil output and its veto power at the United Nations, would likely oppose any UN sanctions move."

UK pledges 50 million GPB for Darfur crisis and Sudan peace

Hilary Benn, UK International Development Secretary, who is in Nairobi today to attend the signing of the historic Peace Agreement has announced a contribution of 50 million GBP towards the UN's 2005 Workplan for Sudan and Eastern Chad.

The UK has set aside 100m GBP for Sudan in this coming year, based on the signature of a peace agreement and provided there is progress in Darfur. He said:

"The UN has led international humanitarian action on the Darfur crisis as well as responding to the needs of the Sudanese people. These needs will be enormous this year. I am therefore announcing our contribution of 50 million GBP towards the UN appeal. This early contribution will help UN agencies to meet these needs and I hope that other countries will do the same. This contribution, and our total pledge to Sudan next year, underlines the UK's continuing strong commitment to Africa and to tackling conflict."

The 50m GBP will be allocated against the UN's Workplan for the 2005 [calendar] year, and their Consolidated Appeal for Eastern Chad. Funding for this will come from DFID's 2004/5 and 2005/6 budget.

South Sudan peace deal signed - Garang says if it is not implemented Sudan will break apart

John Garang, leader of the new Government of South Sudan has a lot of work convincing those in the South to implement the peace agreement. And the Government of Sudan have to persuade northern opposition groups to accept the deal.

Mr Garang told a news conference yesterday that Sudan would be torn apart if today's peace agreement was not implemented.

"If this agreement is dishonoured then, of course, the country will break up," said Garang, who today signed the accord with Sudan's President Omar el-Beshir.

"But if it is implemented the way it is negotiated, there are good chances that the country can remain united," he said.

The comprehensive deal spells out how to share power and natural wealth, what to do with their armed forces during a six-year transition period and how to administer three disputed areas in central Sudan. After six years of autonomy, southerners will also be given a chance to decide whether to remain part of Sudan, or become independent.
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CORRECTION: Please note, Sudan's First Vice President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha and Sudan People's Liberation Movement leader John Garang signed the peace accord at a ceremony in Kenya's capital Nairobi, January 9, 2005. President Omar el-Beshir did not actually sign the accord. Apologies for error.
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UPDATE: On the peace deal signed today: after ratification, which must come in two weeks, negotiators will work on an interim national constitution that will allow the peace agreement to be implemented.

Please click here to read highlights of the agreement and here for other news sites listed in right sidebar at BBC News online. Sudan Tribune also has good coverage of the day's historic events concerning Sudan.

Garang says he will not send his troops to fight Darfur

In August of last year, John Garang, leader of the SPLM, proposed a 30,000-strong peacekeeping force to "prevent genocide" in Darfur. He said a third of the force could consist of Sudanese army troops, while his group and international forces, preferably under the auspices of the AU, would each provide a third of the force.

Yesterday, the day before the signing of southern Sudan's historic peace deal, he said he will not send his forces to fight in the western Darfur region to end a worsening crisis there. He does not consider his country to be at peace until all fighting has stopped. And that peace talks were the only way to end the fighting in Darfur and rejected a military solution.

"I will not fight any other Sudanese," Garang said. "We want a fair and just political settlement for Darfur."

Of the Darfur peace talks tentatively set to continue on January 28 in Abuja, he said, "If I am invited, I will go. If I'm not, I will ask to be invited."

[Note some news reports suggest Mr Garang may not want to align himself with Darfur and violence as it could affect his already difficult and complicated task of making a success of his new Government of South Sudan - he says he would prefer to align himself with talks and negotiations, not any more violence. Also, as reported here a few days ago, the Darfur rebel group, JEM said it will not return to talks mediated by the AU, which it wants replaced by the UN although a UN spokewoman said this was not currently an option.]

Sudan opposition party to boycott Government

An AFP report carried by South African news online yesterday Jan 8 confirms Sudan's second largest opposition party has said it will not participate in a transitional government due to be formed after the peace deal is signed.

The report says the decision by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to stay out of the power-sharing administration could deal a blow to efforts by Sudan's President to garner support among northerners, which he needs to balance southern influence. "We will not participate in a transitional government," party leader Mirghani said.

Note, the leader's statement was released as his party reopened its offices in Khartoum for the first time in 15 years.
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REMEMBERING GENOCIDE, IGNORING GENOCIDE

Kai Stinchcombe is a graduate student in political science and president of the Stanford Democrats. Here is an excerpt from his article "Remembering genocide, ignoring genocide" published by the Sudan Tribune on January 5, 2005:

Sudan is not going to stop the genocide on its own. Flush with oil revenues and eagerly armed by greedy weapons dealers and see-no-evil politicians, the government is intent on driving its black minority off their land. The only hope for Darfur is a U.N. Security Council resolution establishing a no-fly zone over Southern and Western Sudan, beefing up the African Union force already there with more international troops, and establishing a mandatory and enforceable arms embargo on Sudan.

Mr Stinchcombe concludes the article by saying: "It's time to take action in Darfur". Read full story.
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GENOCIDE IN DARFUR INQUIRY REPORT

The UN intends to issue the results of a human rights inquiry around January 25, as requested by the council, that will also rule on whether or not genocide has taken place.

UN warns of massive build-up of weapons, intensification of violence, including air attacks, groups rearming and violence spreading beyond Darfur

A report in the Guardian today quotes Charles Gurdon, an analyst with a British consultancy firm, as saying Darfur was more important to the Sudanese government than the south, because its population is Muslim, like most of the north, and because the bulk of the army comes from there.

The report also quotes him as saying the southern Sudan peace deal was a result both of Western pressure and Sudan's desire to end its pariah status in the international community. "If Libya and Iraq and others can come off the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, Sudan also has to try," he said. "It is a calculated position - this way they can have more time to sort out western Sudan."
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Note, Khartoum has so much breathing space now, it's unreal. No wonder Sudan's President is excited and acts magnanimous offering to now "consider" power sharing with Darfur. Khartoum must be feeling free to carry on as they wish. The peace deal means they don't even have to completely withdraw their troops from southern Sudan for another 2.5 years.

While Khartoum gives the impression of welcoming peace (what they really welcome is the heat being taken off them) it seems as though Darfur is back to square one. The past 22 months of hell -- costing 400,000 lives and displacing millions of people - and two U.N. Security Council resolutions threatening possible sanctions along with a bill signed by President Bush last month -- it's like none of it ever happened.



Early next week, the UN Security Council meets to discuss Kofi Annan's latest report warning that swift action must be taken over the security situation in Darfur or intense violence could break out. In the report, Mr Annan said groups were re-arming and violence was spreading beyond the region -- both the government and rebels had repeatedly violated the ceasefire agreement, and the government had started a massive build-up of forces and logistics -- and the massive build-up of weapons and intensification of violence, including air attacks, suggested the security situation in Darfur was deteriorating.
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How many times have we heard that before? It feels like a return to April/May of last year. Even the BBC news online is dusting off its old Janjaweed photo [see below] from eight months ago. And the caption still seems the same.


Mr Annan says Khartoum is again using militia in its operations
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SUDAN'S PARTIAL PEACE

Here is an excerpt from an article entitled "Sudan's Partial Peace" via Crisis Group Jan 7:

When the Khartoum government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) sign Sunday's peace deal, Sudan will take a big step away from two decades of war that have cost millions of lives but the hard part will just be beginning.

The agreement contains sensible compromises painfully negotiated over several years and demonstrates the effectiveness of African-led peacemaking supported by the wider international community. Yet, the document is more important for potential than immediate impact. If the parties uphold it, a principled peace will come to southern and central Sudan. If the government applies the blueprint it offers and moves vigorously towards peace in Darfur, the country could be transformed.

But most indicators point towards a different outcome. The government is signing partially to deflect pressure over Darfur. It is likely to use resulting goodwill to increase attacks there and further undermine opposition elsewhere in the country. Without great international vigilance, implementation of the deal with the SPLM will slide, risking a standoff and return to war.

Note, in the article John Prendergast says, "The government's objective is to maintain power. Supporters of the peace deal need to understand it pursues contradictory approaches in different regions with different opposition elements to confuse outsiders and defuse criticism. At once it is concluding peace with the SPLM, attacking in Darfur, and driving the armed groups from eastern Sudan out of the Cairo talks."

Khartoum agrees to "three days of tranquillity" starting Monday

A UN news report on Jan. 7 says at last week's JIM meeting, Jan Pronk, UN envoy to Sudan, expressed concern over increasing harassment of aid workers in Darfur.

Also, during the meeting, Sudanese government officials agreed to respect Mr. Pronk's request for "three days of tranquillity" starting Monday when a nationwide campaign [by WHO] begins to immunise nearly six million Sudanese children against polio.

As reported here a few days ago, 40,000 volunteers are to carry out the immunisation of six million children across Sudan. It's disappointing to find no news reports explaining the logisitics of such an operation. Where are the 40,000 volunteers arriving from, and how? How come within the space of three days outside agencies can reach millions of children in the Sudan but on all other days cannot get enough food, water and medicine to those most in need? Sudan expert Dr Eric Reeves and others say at least 10,000 people are dying in the camps each month because of malnutrition and disease.

Sudan's "remarkable" collaboration on information sharing with the U.S.

An AFP report entitled "Pat on back for Sudan" says the US removed Sudan from a list of countries considered to be uncooperative in the war on terrorism. The report, dated May 20 2004, is filed here for future reference. It reveals that:

(1) US Secretary of State Colin Powell made the announcement while demanding that Sudanese authorities allow unrestricted humanitarian access to nearly 1 million western Sudanese who had been uprooted by conflict;

(2) Sudan remains on the US department's list of state sponsors of terrorism, despite its removal from the second terrorism list, designed for countries which are "noncooperative" on terrorism. Four other countries remained on the list: Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Libya.

Also, the report states:

US official Boucher said Sudan was dropped from the list of countries not co-operating on terrorism because of its "remarkable" collaboration on information sharing with the US. Powell's action moves Sudan a step towards eligibility for receiving US military equipment. But the ban on such transfers remains in effect because the country is still regarded as a state sponsor of terrorism. Boucher said Sudan harboured Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, both listed as terrorist groups.

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VIEW: China's African safari by Paul Mooney

"If sanctions were to block oil from Iran and Sudan, China would be forced to scramble to find other sources, which could be problematic. The question is whether or not Beijing is willing to sacrifice oil and its African partnerships to salvage its international image as a responsible global force," writes Paul Mooney in the Pakistan Daily Times. See full article.

Paul Mooney, a freelance journalist, has been reporting on China for 15 years. The above article appeared in YaleGlobal Online (www.yaleglobal.yale.edu), a publication of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. Copyright (c) 2003 Yale Center for the Study of Globalization.
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QUOTATION OF THE DAY

"We were more generous when we were less rich. It is beyond me why we are so stingy, really."

"We are ahead of the technological revolution now logistically. But in terms of the moral climate, we are still in the medieval ages."

- Jan Egeland: The man who makes a difference. Read his profile courtesy Independent UK.

Heat is off Khartoum with much to be done in S. Sudan

A report in the Sudan Tribune today, says what many of us must be thinking. The peace agreement to be signed in Kenya on Sunday, helps take the heat off the Khartoum government.

At Mayflower Hill blog, Christopher writes a post on the peace agreement. He sent me the following comment [thanks Christopher, I couldn't agree more]

"What amazes me is how unabashedly supportive people have been of such a terrible agreement that rests entirely on good will that Bashir has never shown, and has no incentive to show in the future. I'm surprised there hasn't been any more critical discussions of the agreement."

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A report by VOA today explains that once the peace agreement is signed, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) will begin a long process of repatriating Sudanese refugees. The largest group of refugees from southern Sudan, about 223,000, is in Uganda. The rest are in Ethiopia, Kenya, DRC, CAR and Egypt.

UNCHR continues to operate eleven refugee camps in eastern Chad to accommodate about 200,000 Sudanese who have fled Darfur. There, the biggest problem still continues to be finding enough water. The UN warns resources will be severely strained if more Sudanese leave Darfur for eastern Chad.

The problem of clearing minefields is not mentioned in the report.

Bulgaria has new role in NATO and scheduled accession to the European Union

A report in Bulgaria's English-language newspaper Sofia Echo is based on an interview with the consul-general of Sudan in Bulgaria and gives a glimpse into the way Sudanese officials operate. Note, the report says:

The emphasis of his task in Sofia, which he took up eight months ago, is on the key elements of the positive present and future of his country.

Between the 1950s and 1990s, 6000 students from Sudan were educated in Bulgaria. "I always tell my Bulgarian friends, you have a very big lobby in Khartoum," he smiles.

And he says he believes that the international community must fulfil its promise to bring the peace process in Sudan to fruition.

The report points out that because of Bulgaria's new role in NATO, and its scheduled accession to the European Union, it means the country is orientated to its Western partners, and the enormous potential market of Sudan is not uppermost in official minds.
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BULGARIA TO REOPEN EMBASSY IN SUDAN

According to a report in the Sudan Tribune Jan 7, 2005, Sudan opened a general consulate in Sofia, Bulgaria in 1999 and Bulgaria announced yesterday its decision to reopen its embassy in Khartoum but doesn't say when. It could be soon or years from now.

The report says recent years have seen an upsurge in trade and economic relations between Sudan and Bulgaria and that both countries see opportunities for participation of its companies in large-scale projects in Sudan, including design and construction of roads, bridges, water dams, irrigation infrastructure and power plants. Apparently, the absence of a Bulgarian embassy in Sudan creates a host of problems for Bulgarian companies and individuals with business in Sudan.

The Bulgarian Embassy in Khartoum shut down in 1990 and despite an agreement in 1992, Bulgaria took no action to reopen because of instability in Sudan and the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council in 1995.

Note, on googling for info on Sudan-Bulgaria relations, I found an article entitled Special Weapons Agencies - Sudan dated a few years ago outlining a special project in Sudan receiving "technical assistance on weapons from Russia and Bulgaria".

Mkebi: Blame the vikings, they are the ones that started it ...a long time ago

A report in the South African Times today reveals South African President Thabo Mbeki recently hit the front page headlines whilst addressing the Sudanese assembly.

In the speech, the President delivered a scathing attack on some of Britain's most decorated figures such as Winston Churchill, calling them racists who had ravaged Africa and blighted its post-colonial development. His deplorable remarks were made worse by the fact that he made them in a speech in Sudan, a country whose government is one of the world's most notorious abusers of human rights.

South African opposition leader Tony Leon is quoted as saying Mbeki was guilty of "gross and deliberate mischaracterisation" of Sudanese history and an "own goal" against South Africa's image abroad. He said:

"Certainly, the British have much to answer for in Sudan — but so too do African countries such as Egypt, which was the first colonial power in the region in the early 19th century and whose rule included slave trading.

The late nineteenth century Mahdist regime, which Mbeki singled out for praise, had enslaved black people and also attacked Ethiopia and tried to attack Egypt. In the decades since independence, the slave trade had returned to Sudan, and the government had engaged in a series of brutal wars that pitted the Arab and Muslim north against the African Christian and animist south.

So while President Mbeki tries to portray himself, his government and Africa as a whole as the helpless, angry and self-pitying victims of colonial forces and racists past and present, the truth is rather more complicated.

And whatever argument the president wishes to make about history, it is no mark of courage to stand in Sudan today and rail against British colonial authorities (including Winston Churchill) long after they are gone and without saying a word to the country's present rulers about their present behaviour.

President Mbeki's remarks are a clear indication that human rights and democracy are at the bottom of his agenda. The politics and psychology of solidarity reign supreme."

Read full story.


South African President Thabo Mbeki recently welcomed by his Sudanese counterpart Omer El Bashir

Here are some comments from a Jan 5 report on President Mbeki's speech blaming British imperialism for Sudans problems. (3) and (9) are pretty funny.

(1) i am a zim living abroad and would like to tell u guys not to bother about mbeki. he is a nutter who supports the old school of thinking like his friend robert of zimbabwe. politically messed upstairs and not worth his position. black africans just want dignity and freedom of expression and development and mbeki shouldnt talk for us. average black south africans are desperately poor.neigbours to the north are even worse of because of the mugabes and mbekis. shame there can be only one mandela. - UK

(2) mbeki is oke. he is trying to badmouth the current british for past wrongs. if that is his logic, then he should commit harikari since he must then blame himself for all past wrongs in south african politics. - USA

(3) after reading this article i now have a better understanding of the current situation in sudan, its all churchills" fault. i have just heard from idi amin that king arthur and sir lancelot also had a hand in the current civil war in darfur. apparently the knights of the round table want to take over the region so they can dominate the fish & chip industry. rumour has it elton john wants to open anjaweed dating service in khartoum. henry viii has been seen in the area...peace. - CANADA

(4) i think mbeki was very clever to mention the british in this way. note how much more attention an article about sudan has been given. there are never this many comments. the world needs to give more attention to sudan. looks like it worked. - USA

(5) when are these africans going to get their act right . what's the use of going on blaming the british and other colonial powers who have left africa more than 50 years back. stop whing and get down to solving your problems ..... - INDIA

(6) mbeki is controversial president with big mouth, he even said do not cause british did not kll millions in sudan, bashir did it and mbeki has the gut to stand side by side with and make this comment, shyme on him. - USA

(7) it is typical for african leaders to blame everyone else, for their incapacities. brittish involvement in sudan, was shorter than sudan was independent from brittain. this article though, did skew mbekis statements a bit.when i read the transcript, it sounded to me as an appeal to britain, to accept a measure of blame , and participate in sorting this mess out. mbeki has never been emphatic, and his vaguery makes him easy to misquote. the anc and mandela, do not tolerate any violence. - S AFRICA

(8) in light of mbeki's comments, i think it would be only fair for the british to take over again and fix all the problems. - CANADA

(9) i blame the vikings, they are the ones thats started it........er a long time ago. when are they going to say sorry for all the blood shed the caused. - UK

(10) i do think mbeki is wrong, but in south africa we still get evrything that goes wrong still blamed on apartheid even though we just celebrated a decade of democracy. i do think to blame something so ancient shows how little the current government has done to rectify this, and sadly this goes for south africa as well. and i do not think mbeki and mandela is hurting south africans, other than their statements, as it is theirs and can not assume to speak for all south africans. - S AFRICA
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QUOTATIONS OF THE DAY

"The tragedy of the tsunami was through the force of nature," British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Thursday. "The tragedy of Africa is through the failure of man."

"There is the equivalent of a man-made, preventable tsunami every week in Africa."

[via CBC News report Jan 7 - "Don't forget Africa in tsumani's wake, Blair urges"]
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Here is a little gem from a report at the Guardian:

After the Boxing Day earthquake, many asked how a God could allow a tsunami to cause such suffering. That is the wrong question. Instead, we should be asking a question we can actually answer: how can human beings allow a mosquito to cause millions of deaths?

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And, this snippet from a piece titled The Logic of Military Intervention - in which the author concludes we remain essentially uncivilised which is the reason why history records a never-ending series of the worst forms of conquest and repression, including the extremes of slavery, human sacrifice and genocide:

The only way our species can end war for all time is to transcend it, by changing our behavior such that we leave it behind. To do this we must learn, and then actively and continuously work, to cooperate and not compete, including in every aspect of life. It really is that simple. (Even a child can understand it.) Anytime we are in a situation involving other people, we should ask ourselves how we can help them and work together with them, not how we can position ourselves to get an advantage over them and defeat them.

U.N. Security Council hopes South Sudan peace deal will help resolve Darfur crisis

In a UN Security Council press statement read out by Argentina's Ambassador (Council President for January) the 15 members said they hoped Sunday's formal signing of the peace deal, initialled last Friday in Naivasha, Kenya "would have a positive impact on the situation in Darfur."

Jan Pronk, the Secretary-General's Special Representative for Sudan, will attend the signing ceremony. US Secretary of State Colin Powell will attend and discuss the Darfur crisis with the Sudanese. Former US President Jimmy Carter may attend.

The UN is to send a peacekeeping force to keep the peace in the six-year interim period that begins on Sunday after the major signing ceremony has been held in Nairobi. Britain has proposed 10,000 UN peacekeepers and says it will consider sending British troops. Within the next six months the UN will have set up its own offices in Southern Sudan.
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PEACE TALKS MUST ADDRESS CIVILIAN PROTECTION

In a letter to Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, the current AU chairman, Human Rights Watch said the AU should ask the UN Security Council for a full mandate to protect civilians.
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ATROCITIES, IMPUNITY THREATEN LASTING PEACE

Lasting peace in Sudan requires security for civilians and justice for atrocities committed both in Darfur and Southern Sudan, says Human Rights Watch.

HRW report warns today that Sudan's peace agreement lacks any provision for a truth commission, prosecutions or other forms of accountability for past abuses in the southern conflict.

It will be interesting to see how the US handles this issue. It's possible the US may have to stand with China and vote against prosecuting those named in a UN report due out this month following the UN investigation into genocide in Darfur. The US and China, along with several rogue states, are the only ones refusing to join the new International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. After Bosnia and Rwanda, the ICC was set up to deal with suspected perpetrators of genocide and crimes against humanity.
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21 SUDANESE PLEAD NOT GUILTY IN PLOT TO OVERTHROW PRESIDENT

On the opening day of a military tribunal in Khartoum on Wednesday, an AP report says 21 army personnel pleaded not guilty to a range of charges including allegedly plotting to overthrow Sudan's president last year.

Turabi, who has not been charged, helped President Bashir engineer his own 1989 coup to topple Sudan's last democratically elected prime minister, Sadiq el-Mahdi, but later fell out of favour with the president who believed his former aide was trying to make a grab for power.

President Bashir's government has accused the coup plotters - including Turabi, who is under house arrest - of fomenting the Darfur conflict. The defendants gave no testimonies, but are expected to do so when the tribunal resumes Sunday.

On Sunday, when the peace deal is signed, President Bashir is expected to lift Sudan's State of Emergency which means Turabi will be freed because he had been held under the laws of the Emergency.
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SPLM REBEL LEADER BECOMES V.P. TO SUDAN'S PRESIDENT IN FEBRUARY 2005

No doubt the ceremony on Sunday will be quite a show with many leaders attending. The more witnesses there are to the peace deal, the better I guess. News reports say neither side trusts each other. It's a wonder how the warring parties expect outsiders to trust them. Personally, I find it difficult to imagine the leader of the southern Sudan rebel group SPLM, John Garang, working harmoniously as VP to Sudan's President Bashir and VP Taha. According to a report in today's Sudan Tribune, Garang becomes VP in February, not on Sunday.
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SUDAN'S GOVERNMENT WILL TAKE 2.5 YEARS TO WITHDRAW THEIR TROOPS FROM SOUTH SUDAN

The peace deal on Sunday involves John Garang (note this does not include the rest of Sudan) agreeing to withdraw his SPLM rebels over a 6-month period and Sudan's President agreeing to withdraw his forces over a 30-month period. Two and a half years! They've wiped out 400,000 civilians during the last 22 months. Also part of the deal is Sudan agreeing to UN peacekeepers for the ceasefire agreement.

Some news reports give readers the impression that when the peace agreement is signed, massive amounts of development aid pledged for the following three years will be paid out by the international community. My understanding is Britain and the EU have made it clear they won't pay up until progress has been made on Darfur. But the 10,000 UN peacekeepers for Southern Sudan proposed by Britain at last months meeting of the UN Security Council in Nairobi was (as far as I am aware) on condition that the peace deal was signed.

As soon as the peace deal is signed, news of UN peacekeepers may start emerging. This concerns South Sudan only. 2,000 AU [not UN] troops are expected in Darfur by next month. 12,000 peacekeepers could start arriving in Sudan in dribs and drabs so as to not make it look like military intervention while keeping access open for humanitarian assistance. Khartoum could start dismissing aid workers on a whim.

NUBA GRIEVANCES EMERGE IN A STATEMENT

As noted here in a previous post, the Darfur rebels have admitted their sights are set on two regions adjacent to Darfur. Oil operations are situated in those areas. A rebellion could start up anytime in east Sudan by those who feel their region is as marginalised as Darfur in Western Sudan. East, west and central Sudan are not included in the final peace agreement to be signed on Sunday.

Some analysts say new rebel groups could spring up out of nowhere, even in Southern Sudan, after the peace deal is signed. Janjaweed camps were never dismantled. Arab tribal leaders, who are a law unto themselves, are still at large ruling over vast regions of Sudan. Sudan is a huge country without proper security forces. Bandits run amok, making their living through theft and looting. The outlaws say they are too proud to accept charity. Who is funding the rebels for so long, is a question I keep asking myself but cannot find answers to. News reports last year said the Darfur rebels have bases in Europe.

A timely statement out yesterday says the final peace deal fails to address Nuba Grievances. Please see map in sidebar here showing Nuba.
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SUDAN'S FORGOTTEN VICTIMS LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE

A report via Reuters today describes Hashim, a Sudanese, peeking out from the remains of his hut, partly bulldozed and then patched up with plastic sacking, to see if help had arrived to alleviate the misery of life in the slum suburbs of Khartoum. Again he was disappointed.

Hashim is one of hundreds of thousands of Sudanese who have fled conflicts in the south and west, or extreme poverty in the east, to come to the capital of one of the world’s poorest countries. These displaced camps get little help from humanitarian agencies and rarely see aid workers. Read full story.

Fresh fighting in West Kordofan and North Darfur

Just over a week ago, fighting took place in West Kordofan, despite a November 7 ceasefire agreement, says a VOA report. A post here below, dated a few days ago, features a map showing West Kordofan.

Also, a UN report says UN Advance Mission in Sudan (UNAMIS) reported fighting on Tuesday in Darfur between Sudanese Government forces and Darfur rebel group SLA. Government helicopter gunships were reported to have fired rockets at Sayah, a stronghold of the SLA in North Darfur. The number of casualties is unclear. Armed bandits are also reported to have attacked commercial buses and trucks across all three of Darfur's state and looted passengers of cattle and personal belongings.

Monday's clashes happened near Mellit, a town about 50 kilometres (31 miles) north of the North Darfur capital of Fasher. Both sides blame each other for starting the trouble.

The UN has sent out a plea for a three-day ceasefire Jan 10-12 to ensure thousands of children can be immunised to prevent a polio epidemic. A UN report says 40,000 volunteers will help with the immunisation of 5.9 million children or every child under the age of five across Sudan. Crikey. Where on earth do 40,000 volunteers come from and how do they get to Darfur?
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UN OFFICIALS ARE INVESTIGATING LARGE NUMBERS OF REFUGEES RETURNING TO TINA

In North Darfur, UN humanitarian officials are being dispatched to an area around Tina to determine whether conditions there are safe and appropriate for large numbers of refugees to return, reports the Sudan Tribune.

The mission was arranged after refugees began returning to the area following an agreement between the Sudanese Government and the rebel National Movement for Reform and Development (NMRD), one of several rebel groups fighting with Khartoum.
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UN WFP EXPECTS TO INCREASE DARFUR RELIEF THIS YEAR, DESPITE INSECURITY

UN World Food Program (WFP) had to suspend aid to some areas in Darfur but a VOA report says WFP operations will expand this year, despite continued lack of security and other aid agencies leaving.

WFP say they reached 1.3 million people in December. Later this year, starting around July, food needs will increase among the displaced. A spokesperson for the WFP said:

"What we had to do, and this was around the 27th of December, was to suspend our truck convoys because of fighting that was taking place in West Kordofan and this fighting was affecting the main route we use for land transport from central Sudan all the way through Darfur, so virtually road transport was suspended. What we had to do was to find an alternative route to be able to keep supplies moving into Darfur which we have done, but unfortunately it is a much rougher route, much longer, therefore more costly."
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UN SAYS DARFUR REBEL THREAT SPELLS DISASTER

A report from IOL on Jan 5 says the SLA, one of two main Darfur rebel groups, threatened to withdraw from a ceasefire monitoring commission in Darfur. This would spell disaster for the faltering peace process, the UN said on Wednesday. It also said mediation between the warring parties was stuck with neither side willing to make concessions.

"The African Union and Chadian mediation is trying to do their best but we can only agree that this is not working," said a UN spokeswoman in Khartoum. "We know it is not working. Basically, I would say again just because the parties are still not in a mood for real talks."

A Chadian official at the Darfur peace talks blamed the rebels for the peace meeting's failure. "The rebels came with preconditions from the start of this meeting, only to scupper any talks," he told Reuters. He said the rebels had not respected their commitments under the April agreement to inform the AU of their positions.
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NEXT ROUND OF DARFUR PEACE TALKS SET FOR JANUARY 28

A UN spokeswoman is quoted as saying the next round of Darfur peace talks in the Nigerian capital Abuja has been tentatively set for January 28.

The Darfur rebel group, JEM said it will not return to talks mediated by the AU, which it wants replaced by the UN.

The UN spokewoman said this was not currently an option.

"The mediation is being undertaken by the AU. That's still our stance," she told reporters in Khartoum. "So far there are no talks within the UN premises on taking over the AU role at all whatsoever."
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SUDAN EMBASSY RESPONDS

In the Jakarta Post, the Sudan Embassy in Jakarta responds with a letter.
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JOINT COMMISSION CALLS ON SUDAN TO WITHDRAW TROOPS FROM AREAS IT SEIZED FROM DARFUR REBELS

A report at Sudan Tribune confirms the Joint Commission that are monitoring a ceasefire deal said on Wednesday Sudanese troops should immediately withdraw from areas they seized from rebels in Darfur during the last round of peace talks.

698 AU troops preparing for Darfur - Janjaweed incorporated into Sudan's Army

An additional protection force of 698 troops will be deployed in Darfur in the coming days to join the 1,000 AU troops already on the ground, a statement by the African Union said.
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Janjaweed incorporated into the Sudanese army

A Human Rights Watch report today warns the Sudanese government and its Janjaweed militia (many of which have recently been incorporated into the army, police and other government forces) are responsible for a scorched-earth campaign of "ethnic cleansing," which has resulted in one of the world's most serious humanitarian disasters.

"This is a critical moment for Darfur," said a HRW spokesman. "The government's failure to prosecute those responsible for war crimes has meant continued insecurity for civilians." The report says:

The U.N. Security Council in September authorised, under resolution 1564, the establishment of an international commission of inquiry to investigate serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law committed in Darfur and to determine whether genocide has occurred.

HRW urged the Security Council to refer the commission's findings, expected in late January, to the International Criminal Court to help ensure justice for the serious crimes committed in Darfur. "Ending impunity will help improve protection, but we also need to see more African Union troops on the ground. The Sudanese government has entirely failed in its responsibility to protect its own people, and others will need to ensure their security."

Khartoum admits arming some militias to fight the rebels but still denies any links to the Janjaweed, calling them outlaws. Who is to deal with these outlaws? Various news reports say neither side are willing to show their maps pinpointing where they have planted minefields. If the landmines are not cleared, they will cause delays for refugees returning home - or horrific injuries.
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AFRICAN UNION TO HOST SECURITY SUMMIT JANUARY 10

On January 10 the AU will host a two-day summit in Gabon to discuss ongoing security issues in the Ivory Coast, the Democratic Republic of Congo and western Sudan, it was announced Wednesday. The summit will be attended by representatives of the 15-member AU Peace and Security Council.

On the agenda at the summit is the recent peace talks between the government of Sudan and rebel groups concerning Darfur. Those talks, held December 10 to 21 in the Nigerian capital Abuja and chaired by Nigerian president and AU chairman Olusegun Obasanjo, have stalled amid accusations of ceasefire violations by both sides. A report will be submitted to the PSC summit on the Darfur situation.
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EUROPEAN FUNDING TO HELP SUDAN DEVELOP HAS STRINGS ATTACHED

Some journalists are under the impression that the West will pay out the vast sums of development aid it pledged for when a peace deal is signed. As pointed out here in earlier posts, the European Union and Britain have made it clear that the timing for the release of the funds pledged to help Sudan in its reconsctruction will depend on progress made in Darfur. [One can take that as meaning an actual peace deal for Darfur]

Here's what is at stake, for starters: the European Union pledged 400-million euros. Britain promised to increase spending on relief and other activities in Sudan, setting a target 28-million GBP (approx 43-million USD). The US pledged 200-million USD.
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TSUNAMI RELIEF EFFORT SHOULD ENABLE THE UN TO PROVE ITSELF

An FT report says when President George W. Bush announced that a "core group" of countries consisting of the US, Japan, India and Australia would be co-ordinating the relief effort, it looked like a deliberate snub to the UN. Fortunately, the idea was abandoned after talks in Jakarta yesterday, when all four made clear that the UN would henceforth do the job.

It was a grudging admission on Washington's part. But the tsunami relief effort should be a perfect opportunity for the UN to prove itself.

It would be good if the US got its act together on the UN and started paying its subs on time. The UN is important as it is all we have. What is the alternative? The UN is undergoing reform. Important discussions take place in September, following last months recommendations by a high level panel on UN reform. A new UN Secretary-General will be in post in 24 months. Kofi Annan intends serving his full term in office which I believe expires January 1, 2007.

South African President insults Brits but mollycoddles Sudan's government

It looks like my hopes in South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki were misplaced. His insulting speech in Sudan based on stuff from 120 years ago saying "British imperialists ravaged Africa" must mean he was trying to ingratiate himself towards the dictators in Khartoum. I have him earmarked now as someone who is not to be trusted.

Bearing in mind that South Africa chairs the African Union (AU) committee on post-conflict reconstruction of war-affected areas in Sudan, see what the Guardian says about South Africa's President in a report titled "Mbeki attacks 'racist' Churchill".

According to the Guardian, South Africa's main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, said President Mbeki's speech was a missed opportunity to press Khartoum to rein in the Janjaweed militias. "Mollycoddling the Sudanese government is hardly appropriate in the face of its failure to put a stop to the Janjaweed terrorism," he said.

And a party spokesman, said: "It amazes me that President Mbeki feels that he should insult the memory of the greatest Briton by associating him with British colonial policy of 120 years ago. All this in order to create some superficial similarity between Sudan and South Africa. There is no similarity at all. South Africa has a liberal democratic constitution. Sudan is a country which is hardly governed and where the Arab north dominates the African south and west."
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Footnote: As an exile in Britain in the 1960s South African President Thabo Mbeki was educated in England, UK at Sussex University and worked in the London office of the African National Congress. Once considered an Anglophile, his admiration for South Africa's former colonial power seems to have been cooled by spats over the Iraq war and strife in Zimbabwe.

My disappointment in President Mbeki is not so much the content of his speech, it is more to do with the next para here below (coupled with his sucking up to Khartoum) re PetroSA. OK that's one down - and one to go: I've still not pegged the President of the AU (who is also President of Nigeria) as corrupt or not. Some people in Nigeria say he is. Seems to me the only way Africa can move forward is for corruption to be eliminated and competent governors installed.

PetroSA to send technicians to explore oil possibilities in the Sudan

After attending last week's initialling in Kenya of a peace deal between Sudan's government and SPLM rebels, the President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, paid a visit to Khartoum where he met his Sudanese counterpart, President Omar al-Beshir.

The two leaders agreed to encourage co-operation in the field of oil exploration.

Not long afterwards, news appeared online saying South Africa's national oil company PetroSA are to send technicians to explore oil possibilities in the Sudan. Various news reports say PetroSA signed an agreement with the Sudanese state oil company, Sudapet, for exclusive oil concession rights for oil Block 14 in the Sudan.

On January 4, 2005, PetroSA said in a statement that Sudan had awarded it a study agreement under which it would send technical personnel to conduct the necessary tests to ascertain the availability of oil in the block allocated. PetroSA is to send technicians to the Sudan to establish whether there are commercially exploitable quantities of oil in an exploration block that it has been allocated.

The department of foreign affairs said in a statement before Mbeki's visit that several South African companies had interests in the Sudan including the Global Railway Engineering Consortium of SA and PetroSA. It added:

Sudan will also send personnel to PetroSA for training to enhance their technical know-how. The Sudan will benefit commercially from the venture, while obtaining the critical skills they need to develop their oil industry further. The significance of this agreement is that it is an African country-to country partnership, where a win-win solution is pursued in line with the objectives of the New Partnership for Africa's Development.

Note, the Global Railway Engineering Consortium of SA concluded a $21 million contract with the Sudanese Railway Corporation for the rehabilitation of railways and rolling stock on December 9, 2004. And South Africa agreed that together with the University of South Africa (UNISA), it would train the SPLM leadership and other cadres to equip them with skills and experience that will enable them to participate needed to participate equitably in the transitional national government of the Sudan.

The state oil company PetroSA had already signed an agreement in May 2004 with the Sudanese state oil company, Sudapet, for certain exclusive oil concession rights.

African Union troops to Somalia 'in weeks'

A report by the BBC on Jan. 6 says the AU could have troops in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, within a few weeks to allow the newly elected Somali government to establish itself. At present the Somali president and parliament are working out of Kenya, because of fears for their security. Excerpt::

An AU official told the BBC that any force would be deployed as early as possible to protect the new government. Somalia has been without an effective government since the overthrow of President Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. During the past 13 years, rival warlords have battled for control of the country and Somalia has been divided into a patchwork of fiefdoms.

New Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf has asked the AU to provide between 15,000 and 20,000 troops. Uganda is reported to have offered 2,000 soldiers for the new force. AU Peace and Security Commissioner says troops could go to Somalia in the next few weeks, but the size and terms of their mandate were still to be decided.

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It is interesting to note that in Somalia all of the major warlords are involved in the two-year peace process in neighbouring Kenya that led to President Abdullahi's election, raising hopes that Somalia could soon return to normal.

In the Sudan, Arab tribal leaders lord it over vast regions and rule through fear and benevolence. They are a law unto themselves and do not have a need to listen to Khartoum. Maybe they should have been involved in Sudan's peace process. How can Sudan enjoy long-term peace without taking the Arab tribes and their leaders into account?

If, as Khartoum say, the Janjaweed are bandits, how come Khartoum has not attempted to disarm them or dismantled their camps? My guess is the regime in Khartoum fear the Janjaweed who they have onside. Maybe Khartoum dares not arrest Janjaweed or their leaders, because they fear that if the West turns its back on Sudan, revenge will be taken.

Telecoms revolution in lawless Somalia

See how telecoms are thriving in lawless Somalia. A Nov. 19, 2004, BBC report explains that even though Somalia is a country divided into hundreds of fiefdoms run by rival warlords, where security is a major concern, a host of mobile phone masts testifies to the telecommunications revolution which has taken place despite the absence of any functioning national government since 1991. Here are some snippets from the report:

There is no need to get a licence and there is no state-run monopoly which prevents new competitors being established. And there is no-one to demand any taxes, which is one reason why prices are so low.

The main airport and port were destroyed in the fighting but businessmen have built small airstrips and use natural harbours, so the phone companies are still able to import their equipment. Despite the absence of law and order and a functional court system, bills are paid and contracts are enforced by relying on Somalia's traditional clan system.

"The government used to have a monopoly but after the regime was toppled, we were free to set up our own business," says Abdullahi Mohammed Hussein, products and services manager of Telcom Somalia, which was set up in 1994 when Mogadishu was still a war-zone. "We saw a huge gap in the market, as all previous services had been destroyed. There was a massive demand."

While Telcom Somalia has some 25,000 mobile customers - and a similar number have land lines - you very rarely see anyone walking along the streets of Mogadishu chatting on their phone, in case this attracts the attention of a hungry gunman. The warlords realise that if they cause trouble for the phone companies, the phones will stop working again, which nobody wants. "We need good relations with all the faction leaders. We don't interfere with them and they don't interfere with us. They want political power and we leave them alone," he says.

New internet cafes are being set up across the city and the entire country. It takes just three days for a landline to be installed - compared with waiting-lists of many years in neighbouring Kenya, where there is a stable, democratic government. And once installed, local calls are free for a monthly fee of just $10. International calls cost 50 US cents a minute, while surfing the web is charged at 50 US cents an hour - "the cheapest rate in Africa" according to the manager of one internet cafe. "Even small, remote villages are connected to the internet, as long as they have a phone line.

E-mail is the cheapest way of staying in touch and many Somalis can read and write their own language, instead of relying on English or French, which restricts internet users to a smaller number of well educated people. And Somalia's telecoms revolution is far from over. Read full story.

Rising hopes for African peace

Is peace breaking out across Africa? It is too early to be sure but the year has begun on a hopeful note says The Economist in its Jan 6 report titled Global Agenda.

Commanders of SPLA rebel group will seek to punish China

On December 30, 2004, the Embassy of Sudan in Washington, D.C., issued a press release entitled "The Washington Post and its misinformation campaign against Sudan."

A week earlier, on December 23, The Washington Post published a report by Peter S. Goodman entitled "China invests heavily in Sudan's oil industry." Note this excerpt:

"Three commanders of the southern Sudan rebel group said in interviews that the SPLA will seek to punish China once the rebels gain a formal decision-making role in the government.

The stakes could be considerable: Peace would allow the world's major energy companies to enter Sudan's oil patch. Moreover, roughly two-fifths of all known reserves -- oil worth more than $16 billion -- are now in rebel-controlled territory, according to the study by PFC, the strategic analysis group.

"The suffering of the people is on the hands of the Chinese," said commander Deng Awou. "The agreements for the Chinese company may be terminated."

Sudan's rebels aim to take over Kordofan and eastern Sudan - Fighting has erupted in east Sudan

A Reuters UK report out yesterday [updated today] entitled Darfur rebels wary of peace deal with south confirms the Darfur rebel group SLM said it would continue to struggle by political, military and diplomatic means and through negotiations for a comprehensive peace covering Darfur, the neighbouring Kordofan region and the east of Sudan.

"We warn that the war will take new forms and that the situation will not stabilise until we reach a just and comprehensive peace," it added. A spokesman for the JEM, contacted by telephone on Sunday, said they would speak about the southern agreement when the signing takes place.

The report states that fighting has erupted in the east of Sudan where ethnic rebels have accused Khartoum of neglect.