Oil drives the "genocide" in Darfur - JEM says it will never engage in any peace talks with Sudan govt

A news report, copied here below, entitled " JEM WILL NOT ENGAGE WITH TALKS WITH GOVERNMENT, JEM OFFICIAL SAYS" [December 05, 2008, Miraya FM via ReliefWeb] tells us that the Darfur rebel group JEM says it will never engage in any peace talks with the Sudenese government.

As the archives here at Sudan Watch show, JEM will not be content until the regime in Khartoum is toppled and they steal power for themselves.

Isn't there a law against such criminal activity? Simon Mann was jailed for more than 34 years for leading an attempt to oust Equatorial Guinea President Teodoro Obiang Nguema.

Maybe this is why SLM's Nur and JEM's Ibrahim fear attending Darfur's peace talks because their consciences are not clear and know they deserve to be arrested.

Sudan put a bounty on JEM Ibrahim's head for his attempted coup on Khartoum last May.

On May 14, 2008, The Scotsman reported that on May 13 Sudan put a £123m bounty on head of JEM's leader: Sudan's State TV said president Omar al-Bashir's government increased a reward for Khalil Ibrahim to 500 million Sudanese pounds, or £123 million – almost ten times the amount the United States has offered for Osama bin Laden.

So, here is the latest crossroads. What next? See details here below.

(1) Government of Sudan (GOS) joint Arab-African peace initiative for Darfur:
Qatari Peace Bid: UN, EU, AU, AL, UK, US & France support the joint Arab-African peace initiative for Darfur led by Qatar & Sudan People's Forum (SPF)

(2) Darfur rebel group SLM response to joint Arab-African peace initiative for Darfur:
France-based SLM leader Abdel-Wahid Al-Nur dismisses all peace initiatives and proposes none.

(3) Displaced Darfuris response to joint Arab-African peace initiative for Darfur:
SLM Nur's rebels in Darfur's Kalma Camp dismiss peace talks and demand more UN security or assisted migration out of Sudan

(4) Darfur rebel group JEM response to joint Arab-African peace initiative for Darfur:
JEM dismisses all peace initiative and proposes none. See report:

JEM WILL NOT ENGAGE WITH TALKS WITH GOVERNMENT, JEM OFFICIAL SAYS
December 05, 2008 report from Miraya FM via ReliefWeb

The JEM foreign affairs official Harun Abdel Hamid told Miraya FM that the movement will never engage in any peace talks with the Sudan government even if other armed movements participate in negotiation. Harun also said that JEM will not mortgage the fate of Darfur crisis with the positions of other armed movements, adding that Abuja Peace Agreement does not mean anything to the movement as he puts it.

Meanwhile, the state minister for information Kamal Ibeid said that negotiation is not giving conditions and dictations.

The Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes held the conflicting parties the responsibility of escalating violence in the region.

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Image: "Apprehension" by Rob Rooker. Painted on a wall in Maridi, Sudan.  The image is of a young Nuer boy looking up among a crowd of people.
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Notes to self by author of Sudan Watch December 08, 2008

OIL DRIVES THE "GENOCIDE" IN DARFUR - The reason is simple: a possible oil pipeline through Darfur

Somewhere here in the archives of Sudan Watch are reports regarding warnings by the UN that anyone who hinders peace in Darfur will be punished. So why during the past five years have the rebels remained free to say and do as they wish?

I can't imagine a civilian living in my neighbourhood being permitted by the British government to publicly direct the Darfur war from an armchair via a satellite phone. Some people in Paris have such a neighbour in the form of Darfur war leader Abdul Wahid Al Nur who freely swans around talking to the international press about he's doing. Why does France allow it?

Seems African rebels are above the law. I wonder why. Clearly, the law and immigration rules are being bent to suit some and not others.

Incidentally, a few days ago I came across this comment at a blogpost of the Angry Arab at Berkely - excerpt:

As'ad was right to bring up the point about pet causes, such as what is taking place in Darfur. Without getting to enmeshed in the subject, we find this total absence of knowledge of why this conflict is taking place in Darfur in the first place. I do not know why people insist on glossing over the numerous reports of oil exploration and discovery in Darfur - there are enough articles past and present that amply display the issue. However there is this total absence in the movement to save Darfur of what is once again taking place on the ground. The only thing we hear is "evil Muslims" who are doing these atrocious acts - why? You would think that the major thrust is that of hatred of anything other than Muslims - or this is what is implied. All that happens in ignorant outrage like this is the continuation of this orientalist tripe that is cooked up daily and deeply to fuel the "war on terror," and to obscure the underlying factors of what is really taking place.

Note the chronological dates on these reports:

Energy Bulletin - Oil Underlies Darfur Tragedy July 05, 2004 by Zaman Daily

Sudan Watch - India Signs New Pipeline Deal July 12, 2004 & December 04, 2004 by Ingrid Jones

Reuters - Oil Discovery Adds New Twist to Darfur Tragedy June 15, 2005 by Ruth Gidley

Common Dreams - Oil Drives The Genocide In Darfur August 19, 2005 by David Morse

Los Angeles Times Wakes Up - Search for oil raises the stakes in Darfur March 03, 2007 by Edmund Sanders

Reuters reiteration 2007 - The Race For Darfur's Oil - a Blessing or a Curse? Mar 07, 2007 by Nina Brenjo

I think this is quite enough material. Where should the Save Darfur movement be directed? What should be it's target in the light of these facts? Now, compare this with the barren knowledge of the majority of the "save Darfur" movement.

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Image: "Crowd" by Rob Rooker
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For sure it's starting to look like the Darfur rebellion was engineered for oil in Sudan, Chad and along the border. When I wonder about who is funding the rebel leaders and their armies, I also wonder about who funded South Sudan's civil war for more than 20 years and why it was classed as a civil war and not genocide.

Two million Sudanese people perished in South Sudan's war. Many more millions of people perished in Northern Uganda and DR Congo but were not classed as genocide.

Now I am reminded of the following two posts that I wrote in 2004:

December 04, 2004 Sudan: Oil and Darfur - India signed new pipeline deal - France interested in Uranium and has drilling rights

July 11, 2004 ARAB SOURCES SAY OIL DISCOVERED IN DARFUR - Sudan and India sign new pipeline deal:

July 7, 2004 report entitled "Oil Underlies Darfur Tragedy" by Zaman in Turkey, says that according to Arab sources, the fighting in Darfur stems from attempts to gain control over the oil resources in the region. Also, their sources point out that oil fields have recently been discovered in Darfur.

May 15, 2004 report entitled "W. Sudan: a complex ethnic reality with a long history" by Professor R.S. O'Fahey of University of Bergen, Norway (and Northwestern University) writes of Darfur: "the racist dimension comes to the fore in reports of rape and mass killings, cynically supported by the Khartoum government, which is determined to retain control over the area. The reason is simple: a possible oil pipeline through Darfur."

The above two reports are the first of three I've found that mention oil in Darfur. Mainstream media seem to concentrate their reports on the conflict in Darfur as being about government backed Janjaweed eliminating black Africans who feel marginalised and excluded from getting a fair share of power and wealth for their region. Which, going by witness accounts, is all true. But ever since I started blogging about the Sudan crisis on April 24, I've sought (unsuccessfully) to find the answer to one of my questions, namely: All during the past years of Peace Accord negotiations for the north and south of Sudan, why did the U.S. and Sudan see fit to exclude the western and eastern regions of Sudan?

Back in April I'd read somewhere that oil had been discovered in both Darfur and along the border of Sudan and Chad. Unfortunately I've misplaced the link to the report. In May I came across a report (see above) by Professor O'Fahey that provides a succinct overview of western Sudan's history. The report basically says the GoS supports the rape, mass killings and ethnic cleansing because it is determined to retain control over Darfur for a simple reason: a possible oil pipeline through Darfur. [Note Professor O'Fahey's report is copied in full in my next post, above]

Maybe the U.S. did not view Darfur as a big problem as they concentrated on brokering peace for the north-south: a lasting peace that would enable a seemingly united Sudan move forward and progress for the benefit of all regions. It would appear the U.S. does not have an interest in Sudan's oil, not because it is too expensive but because their main aim is to promote democracy and fight international terrorism (and respond to pressure from groups concerned with abuses of human rights).

Perhaps the GoS knew all along that there was oil in Darfur. And they presumed (wrongly) we in the Western world wouldn't notice that black Africans were being eliminated to make way for the Arabisation of Sudan. The GoS are keen on getting the Peace Accord signed and sealed because it will legitimise their standing (they're an unelected dictatorship that stole power through a coup) and it will help pave the way for doing deals with Asian oil companies, which may in turn help attract back the big players (ie British Petroleum) that pulled out of Sudan because of human rights issues.

See this July 1 report entitled "Sudan signed new pipeline deal with the Indian ONGC". It states "a new 741 kilometer-long pipeline with 12 inches in diameter is a real addition to exportation of oil products to international market". Also, it reports that India ONGC has another agreement - for establishing a third pipeline with 32 inches in diameter - that will be signed soon.

It'd be interesting to know the location of that third pipeline. And why the oil companies in Sudan are getting away with no media coverage on the Sudan crisis. Here below is a map of oil concessions in Sudan where one can see how closely the oil companies are situated to Darfur. I wonder why there is no news coming out of Sudan from them?

So little reporting comes out of Sudan. Most mainstream media reports I find are regurgitated snippets emanating from a few original sources, ie UN, US, EU press conferences, summits etc. I've read that the GoS goes to great pains to keep publicity reaching the residents of Khartoum, for fear it will cause an outcry. It'd be great to have more than a few bloggers in Khartoum to spread the word.

In a forthcoming post I list the aid contributions made by several countries. Note that France has contributed USD 12 million to the international aid effort in Darfur (through bilateral and EU channels). So far, UK has given USD 65 million. Italy USD 30 million. Since India has been striking such big deals with Sudan, it would be interesting to know how much aid they've contributed towards humanitarian assistance for Darfur - along with China and Malaysia - and any other country on the UN Security Council that is responsible for blocking sanctions - and military intervention - to put pressure on Khartoum to protect its people and aid workers in Sudan.

I've given this post a lot of thought and tried to put myself in the shoes of the rebels and those in power in Khartoum and South Sudan. What now? All out war? The Darfur rebels refuse talk peace. If I were in Khartoum I'd be battening down the hatches and getting prepared for a new attack by the rebels in areas other than Darfur where there are no peacekeepers.

I fear that the rebels, including those in Southern Sudan, are all part of the same group and strategy. As predicted long ago, it looks like Central Sudan is next. God help the children of Sudan.

Darfur Sunrise



When I despair, I remember that all through history, the way of truth and love has always won. There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they can seem invincible but in the end they always fall. Think on it. ..always. - Mahatma Gandhi

French President says if Sudanese President does not change his policy no one will talk to him any more

Reading between the lines of the following report, it seems there has been a break down in communication between the international community and Sudanese President Al-Bashir. French President Sarkozy is quoted as saying "The choice that President Bashir, the Sudanese president, must make is a choice he must make not in the coming weeks but in the coming days".

SUDAN'S BASHIR MUST CHANGE OR FACE TRIAL-FRANCE

PARIS, Dec 8 2008 (Reuters) - Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir must move quickly to bring peace to the Darfur region or face trial for genocide, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Monday. "His future is in his hands," Sarkozy said in a speech to mark the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

"Either he changes his attitude and the international community can talk to him, or he does not change his attitude and then he will face his responsibilities, notably before the International Criminal Court," Sarkozy said.

"The choice that President Bashir, the Sudanese president, must make is a choice he must make not in the coming weeks but in the coming days," he said.

Judges at the International Criminal Court in The Hague are considering a request by the ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo for a warrant to arrest Bashir for alleged crimes in Darfur.

Moreno-Ocampo has expressed concern that the United Nations Security Council, of which France is one of five permanent members, might hinder investigations.

Arab and African states have proposed invoking Article 16 of the ICC statute, which allows the Security Council to delay investigations for a year or more.

But Sarkozy said that Bashir was running out of options.

"If the Sudanese president does not change his policy, no one will talk to him any more," he said. (Writing by James Mackenzie)

Maybe we'll know what the above report is really about in the coming days.

EUFOR Chad/CAR Mission: Russia sends helicopters, peacekeepers to Chad

Russia signed an agreement with the EU on November 05, 2008 on the deployment of a 200-strong peacekeeping contingent and four Mi-8MT helicopters in the Central African region for up to a year.

Russian transport planes have so far delivered over 200 tons of cargo, more than 80 personnel, five vehicles, and four helicopters as part of a Russian peacekeeping contingent in Chad.

In addition, Russia already has a helicopter support group deployed in neighboring Sudan. The unit comprising 120 personnel and four Mi-8 helicopters provides transport and rescue services for UN military observers in Sudan.

Don't miss previous post here at Sudan Watch today -

EUFOR Chad/CAR Mission: Russia airlifts 4 Mi-8 helicopters and 30 personnel to Chad to help EU:

Chad's relationship with JEM may be about to change.



RUSSIA SENDS HELICOPTERS, PEACEKEEPERS TO CHAD
December 08, 2008 RIA Novosti report from Moscow:

A Russian An-124 Condor heavy transport plane has delivered four helicopters along with personnel to Chad to take part in an EU-led mission to support UN peacekeeping efforts in the country, an Air Force spokesman said on Monday.

Russia signed an agreement with the EU on November 5 on the deployment of a 200-strong peacekeeping contingent and four Mi-8MT helicopters in the Central African region for up to a year.

"The An-124 plane delivered four Mi-8MT helicopters and over 30 personnel, including helicopter crews and technicians, who will soon begin assembling the aircraft," Col. Vladimir Drik said.

According to Drik, the transport plane made an eight-hour non-stop flight from a military airfield in central Russia to the capital of Chad, Ndjamena, carrying over 40 tons of cargo.

Russian transport planes have so far delivered over 200 tons of cargo, more than 80 personnel, five vehicles, and four helicopters as part of a Russian peacekeeping contingent in Chad.

In addition, Russia already has a helicopter support group deployed in neighboring Sudan. The unit comprising 120 personnel and four Mi-8 helicopters provides transport and rescue services for UN military observers in Sudan.

The foreign ministers of the 27 EU-member states approved in April a plan to send a peacekeeping mission to Chad and the Central African Republic, through five years of clashes between Chadian rebels and government troops trying to oust President Idriss Deby, who seized power in 1990.

Over 700 people, including 400 civilians, were reported to have died in February this year following fighting triggered by a rebel assault on Ndjamena.

The EUFOR contingent, comprising 3,700 personnel from 14 EU countries, began a year-long UN humanitarian mission in March to help protect the civilian population and provide humanitarian aid in the country's troubled eastern region.

Chad gained independence from France in 1960. Since 2003, Chad and Sudan have accused each other of inciting conflict on their common border, which includes most of the troubled west Sudanese region of Darfur.

EUFOR Chad/CAR Mission: Russia airlifts 4 Mi-8 helicopters and 30 personnel to Chad to help EU - Chad's relationship with JEM may be about to change

Darfur rebel group JEM leaders and fighters pass back and forth across the porous border between Darfur and Chad. Earlier this year, JEM fighters helped Chadian President Deby's forces repel a coup attempt. But now Chad's relationship with JEM may be about to change. Here's the story.

A possible detente between Chad and Sudan has implications for the conflict, writes Mary Fitzgerald,  Foreign Affairs Correspondent, in N'Djamena, November 27, 2008 for the Irish Times:

CHAD NO LONGER SO WELCOMING TO CROSS-BORDER DARFUR REBELS

THE REBELS are smartly dressed and blend in easily with the guests milling around the airy lobby of one of N'Djamena's more expensive hotels. Their eyes dart about but only to anticipate the next passerby who will stop and shake their hands - and there are many.

The two men are leading members of the Justice and Equality Movement or JEM, one of the rebel groups involved in years of fighting with government forces in neighbouring Darfur. The business card of the first, Ahmed Tugod Lissan, identifies him as JEM's chief negotiator.

The other, Bushara Suliman Nour, is JEM's secretary for foreign affairs. The two men, along with other JEM leaders and fighters, pass back and forth across the porous border between Darfur and Chad, the latter a place of sanctuary for the movement and its government a source of crucial support. That support works both ways. Earlier this year, when Chadian rebels opposed to the country's president Idriss Deby made an audacious swoop on N'Djamena, it was JEM fighters who helped Deby's forces repel the attack.

But there are signs that Chad's relationship with JEM may be about to change. The capital buzzes with rumours of a possible detente between Deby and his Sudanese counterpart Omar al-Bashir. Earlier this month the two countries restored diplomatic relations and Sudanese officials have claimed a meeting between the two heads of state is in the offing. Where that leaves JEM remains to be seen. But my run-in yesterday with Chadian police may provide some clues.

Minutes after I, along with a French journalist colleague, watched the JEM representatives walk away following our interview, two men approached. After identifying themselves as plainclothes police, they explained that their chief wanted to see us. At police headquarters my colleague, a TV reporter, had the tape of his interview confiscated.

Interviewing JEM figures would have been fine a month or so ago, the chief told us, but not now. "The situation has changed," he said gruffly, describing our two interviewees as "delinquents".

Led by the charismatic Khalil Ibrahim, known to his supporters as Dr Khalil, JEM is now acknowledged to be one of the leading rebel movements in Darfur, in part because other groups have been riven by infighting and factionalism.

The conflict in the northwestern Sudanese province broke out in earnest in 2003 when rebels took up arms against the government, accusing it of discrimination, marginalisation and neglect.

In response, Khartoum carried out bombing raids on Darfur and unleashed militias that laid waste its villages, plundering, raping and burning as they went. Five years later, it is estimated more than 300,000 people have died as a result of the conflict which has now broadened into inter-ethnic violence and prompted the deployment of an international peacekeeping force.

Tugod Lissan admits he never expected the government's response to be so ferocious. "What they have done is not simple war, it is crimes against humanity, genocide . . . and those who are responsible for these crimes should be held accountable by any means."

Earlier this month, al-Bashir declared a unilateral ceasefire and pledged to begin disarming militias, a move many believe was prompted by the pressure he feels since the International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor announced moves to seek his arrest, accusing the Sudanese president of overseeing a campaign of genocide in Darfur.

Al-Bashir's promises carry little weight with JEM.

"We will not judge the government by what they say, rather by what they do and what they are doing on the ground is completely different from what they are saying," shrugs Tugod Lissan, claiming that government forces attacked rebel positions within days of the ceasefire.

A Qatari-sponsored initiative is the latest attempt to solve the Darfur conflict and JEM has said it is ready to participate in the proposed Doha conference or, as Tugod Lissan puts it, "talks about talks".

"If we are convinced that the government is genuine in wanting to solve the problem and bring peace to Darfur, we will respect the ceasefire . . . and then we will be ready for a constructive political dialogue to go into the root causes of the conflict," he says. "We believe that it is better for al-Bashir and his government to come clean, to sit and solve the crisis because we have the desire and the willingness to solve this problem by peaceful means, but at the same time we are ready for the other options."

Both he and Nour are frank about their ties with Deby. "The Sudan government believes the Darfur conflict cannot be solved if Deby remains in power so the battle of N'Djamena [in February] was also a battle of Darfur - that's the reason we came with our own forces to this city to defend Deby because we saw the Sudan government supporting, preparing and instructing the Chadian opposition . . . The game is obvious."

This article appeared in the print edition of the Irish Times.
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RUSSIA AIRLIFTS HELICOPTERS TO CHAD FOR EU PEACEKEEPING MISSION
December 08, 2008 Associated Press report:

The Russian military says it has airlifted helicopters and crews to Chad to join a European Union peacekeeping mission in the African nation.

Russian air force spokesman Col. Vladimir Drik says a military cargo plane delivered four Mi-8 helicopters and 30 crew members and support personnel to Chad on Monday.

He said the military will need to fly some additional personnel to Chad before the Russian helicopters start supporting the EU mission. Some 3,500 European troops have been deployed this year to help stabilize areas of eastern Chad and the Central African Republic bordering Sudan's troubled Darfur region.

The Kremlin authorized sending the helicopters earlier this year. The deployment marked the first direct Russian contribution to an EU military mission.

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RUSSIA 'READY TO HELP EU' IN CHAD
BBC report September 09, 2008 - excerpt:

Russia is preparing to provide four transport helicopters with crew to help the EU's peace mission in Chad - despite tensions over Georgia.

The EU force commander, General Patrick Nash, says talks about the Russian helicopters are "very advanced".

The operation - called Eufor Chad/CAR - has been hampered by a shortage of helicopters, needed to reach refugees scattered over a vast area of desert.

Photo: Helicopters are needed for rapid reaction across huge distances (AFP/BBC)

See next post at Sudan Watch December 08, 2008:
EUFOR Chad/CAR Mission: Russia sends helicopters, peacekeepers to Chad

Sudan’s South Kordofan the next Darfur?

The Sudanese army says it has sent more troops to the sensitive oil-rich South Kordofan state.

The army told state media that it had information that a Darfur rebel group planned to attack the area.

The main party in the south says the military build-up is a violation of a 2005 peace deal that ended civil war.

There has been speculation in Khartoum for weeks that large numbers of Darfur rebels had crossed into Kordofan, followed by northern soldiers.



Source: December 07, 2008 BBC report by Amber Henshaw in Khartoum: SUDAN BUILD-UP IN OIL-RICH STATE
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October 27, 2008 report by IRIN from Nairobi, Kenya:
SUDAN: RISING ANIMOSITY IN CENTRAL STATE COULD FUEL CONFLICT

A devastating conflict could erupt in the central Sudanese state of southern Kordofan unless long-standing grievances are urgently addressed, a think-tank has warned.

"The Khartoum government must rapidly address the worsening situation or face the prospect of a devastating new conflict," Fouad Hikmat, Horn of Africa project director for the International Crisis Group (ICG), said.

Southern Kordofan lies in the critical border area between the North and South and is occupied by Arab (mainly Misseriya and Hawazma) and African (mainly Nuba) groups that are deeply polarised along political and ethnic lines.

"There is animosity over resources, representation and interests," Hikmat said. "Local communities are frustrated with the NCP [National Congress Party] and the SPLM [Sudan People’s Liberation Movement] government." He was speaking at the launch of a report, Sudan’s Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?

The NCP and the SPLM make up the Government of National Unity, formed after the 2005 signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). But the Nuba have no representation at the SPLM in Juba, the capital of Southern Sudan.

"They feel neglected," Hikmat added.

The Nuba are bitter because they believe their SPLM allies did not negotiate a better deal for them in the CPA. Instead, the SPLM gave priority to the oil-rich Abyei territory in the state, stated the ICG report. Another priority was the independence referendum due in 2011.

At least 5,000 of their troops are supposed to be demobilised but now do not want to give up their guns, Hikmat said. The Nuba constitute the biggest group in the SPLM after the Dinka, with about 10,000 troops.

Marginalisation

"The feeling of political marginalisation and lack of genuine representation has always been pervasive among Nuba communities," Sara Pantuliano, a research fellow with the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), said in an analysis of the eastern sector of the state.  

"This feeling continues today among groups which supported the uprising [in the south] and is fuelled by a perception that the integration of the SPLM alongside the NCP in the state government, as envisaged by the CPA, is far from genuine," said Pantualiano.

Lack of progress on integration between the two parties until recently has fostered the progressive isolation of former SPLM areas that also lack infrastructural support, she said, adding that hard-line groups have been strengthening their control in these areas. More recently, the dismissal of the state minister of finance (SPLM) by the state government (NCP) has reignited animosities between the two parties.

The predominantly pastoralist Misseriya also feel their livelihoods are under threat, according to Hikmat.

During the war, militias comprising local Arab pastoralists fought for the government and were rewarded with arms, land and support for their livestock. "This support has reduced after the war," he said.

The region suffers a lack of basic services, acute underdevelopment, economic marginalisation and rampant poverty. Development projects have also stalled.

Hundreds of people have died in disputes over land and grazing rights - a situation exacerbated by the thousands of returnees. A land commission, proposed by the CPA, to investigate the problem of land ownership has still not been established.

Future of the CPA

"If this area slides into war then it could derail the whole CPA," Hikmat said. "If the parties fail to implement the protocol of the CPA it will be a challenge to the CPA itself as a framework. Then, if it fails here, can it solve Darfur, yet that is a bigger problem?"

According to Hikmat, major steps to address the situation have to be taken now. "This is because the rainy season has ended, and with it pastoralist migration from the North to the South through parts of the region, such as the Nuba Mountains and the oil-rich region of Abyei will start," he said.

The SPLM is adamant it will not allow arms into its territories. "Without action this could deteriorate into a dangerous situation," he warned.

"Tribal reconciliation based on negotiation of a common agenda, establishment of an efficient state government administration and adherence to the CPA's principles of power- and wealth-sharing has to be fostered," the ICG report recommends.

"The excruciatingly slow implementation of the [comprehensive peace] agreement has done little to build confidence in the prospect of durable peace in the region," Pantualiano said. aw/mw



Photo: A returnee woman and her baby head back home to Southern Kordofan State from Khartoum: Hundreds of people have died in disputes over land and grazing rights - a situation exacerbated by the thousands of returnees. (John Nyaga/IRIN)

For reports on Abeyi, click on Abyei label here below.

Dafur's ex-SLA leader Minni Arcua Minnawi, who became presidential adviser in Khartoum, calls on Sudan to co-operate with ICC

Here is another fishy story from France-based Sudan Tribune announcing that Dafur's head of the SLA, Minni Arcua Minnawi, who became presidential adviser in Khartoum, calls on Sudan to co-operate with ICC.

The whole article, copied here below, is based on a line or two of information from an interview with independent Darfur Radio Dabanga to be broadcasted next week. The interview had not even aired when the Sudan Tribune published quotes from it. Who knows if and when the interview ever took place. One wonders if the article was concocted and timed strategically for maximum impact and mischief.

Going by the archives here at Sudan Watch and recent articles published by Sudan Tribune, it seems clear (to me anyway) that the France based website masquerades as a new organisation in order to be used as a clearing house for rebel press releases and GoS opposition propaganda. [Also note Canada based New Sudan Vision - see Wikipedia]

How would the Darfur information war and its leaders have fared without the Sudan Tribune I wonder. To be fair, it is an excellent site that works very well, technically and layout wise, and its anonymous editors and plagiarisers work hard around the clock 24/7 to provide a great service to the rebels (and, inadvertently, to my great amusement might I add!) Hey you guys, don't forget: I'm watching you :-)

I hope those, Africans or Arabs or French or Germans or Dutch or Spanish or Chinese or Russian or whoever they all are, behind the Sudan Tribune have a sense of humour when and if any of them read this. Here is a copy of their latest fishy story.

December 04, 2008 article from Khartoum, Sudan published by Sudan Tribune December 05, 2008:

DARFUR'S MINNAWI CALLS ON SUDAN TO COOPERATE WITH ICC

Sudan’s senior presidential assistant Minni Arcua Minnawi urged the government to cooperate with the International Criminal Court (ICC) which has moved to indict president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir.

“Sudan as member of the UN should respect the ICC and defend its case at the ICC” Minnawi said in an interview with independent Darfur Radio Dabanga to be broadcasted next week.

“The law is above everyone. Anyone not respecting the law has to be punished” he added.

Minnawi’s statements come a day after the ICC prosecutor warned the UN Security Council that they must be prepared for prospects of an arrest warrant against Al-Bashir.

In mid-July the ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo announced that he is seeking an arrest warrant for Al-Bashir.

Ocampo filed 10 charges: three counts of genocide, five of crimes against humanity and two of murder. In early October ICC judges have officially started reviewing the case in a process that could possibly drag on to next year.

Sudan refuses to recognize the court saying it did not ratify its founding treaty and vowed not to hand over any of citizens to be tried at The Hague based court.

But Minnawi said Khartoum must respect the ICC judicial process saying its legally obligated to do so since it is a UN member.

The former rebel leader has consistently called on Sudan to cooperate with the ICC despite being a member of the government.

Last year sources in the SLM faction told Sudan Tribune that Al-Bashir has privately urged Minnawi to support his rejection of the ICC as a member of the government, but the ex-rebel leader turned down his request.

In May 2006, the SLM signed the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) with the Sudanese government and its head Minnawi was appointed as the senior assistant of the Sudanese president in August.

But Minnawi have expressed frustration with implementation of the DPA saying the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is deliberately stalling it.

UN experts estimate some 300,000 people have died and 2.5 million driven from their homes. Sudan blames the Western media for exaggerating the conflict and puts the death toll at 10,000. (ST)



Photo: Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) leader Minni Minnawi speaks during a press conference in Khartoum (AFP) [Photo and caption source: Sudan Tribune 05 Dec 08]

Note the caption against the photo selected by Sudan Tribune, refers to Minni Arcua Minnawi as leader of Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM), and not the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA). France-based Abdel-Wahid Al-Nur considers himself chairman of the SLM - or rather, should I say, SLM/A. For the purposes of unifomity at Sudan Watch, SLM leader is Nur, SLA leader is Minnawi. JEM leader is Ibrahim. As for the groups, SLA, SLM, SLM/A, SPLMA... it doesn't really matter what they call themselves or their 30 or more splinter groups, the easiest way to remember who is who, is to think of them all as part of the same group stemming from the SPLMA in Southern Sudan, then it's not so confusing trying to figure out what the rebels are all about and what they're after.

Here's another thing, why was the 20 or more years of war in southern Sudan with a death toll of two million classed as civil war when Darfur, according to the ICC's prosecutor is classed as genocide? I have a theory on the answer to that question, too long to go into here right now. Note to self for later date: look up Eric Reeves' Sudan writings prior to 2004.

SLM Nur's rebels in Darfur's Kalma Camp dismiss peace talks and demand more UN security or assisted migration out of Sudan

According to France-based Sudan Tribune, the representatives of Darfur Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) on December 02, 2008 rejected an offer by the Deputy Joint Special Representative of the United Nations Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) to engage dialogue with the Sudanese government on security issues.

Reportedly, Hussein Abusharati the IDPs and refugees spokesperson told Sudan Tribune that they rejected the offer of the UNAMID because "They want to implement an agreement (Abuja deal) that we reject; also such issue should be debated with the SLM and its leader Abdel Wahid Al-Nur during the peace talks not with us," he underlined.

Apparently, the IDPs spokesperson added that UNAMID's Anyidoho and his delegation angered some of the IDPs chiefs when he called them to deal with the Sudanese security officials to resolve security issues and the individual compensation.

"The local chiefs rejected the call and reiterated their rejection the presence of the Sudanese government officials in the camps. They also stressed that such questions have to be discussed with Abdel Wahid (Al-Nur) once Khartoum implements conducive environment for the talks," Abusharati said.

He further said the IDPs chiefs urge the international community to respond positively to their demand for security" and added "If the UNAMID cannot provide such protection it would be better to transport us in refugee camps outside the country till the resolution of the conflict."



Photo: Henry Anyidoho, UNAMID Deputy Joint Special Representative, addressing the IDPs Sheikhs at Kalma Camp, Darfur, W. Sudan 02 December, 2008 (Photo UNAMID)

Source: December 03, 2008 article from Nyala, Darfur published at Sudan Tribune December 04, 2008 - copy in full:

DARFUR DISPLACED REJECT UNAMID CALL TO DIALOGUE WITH SUDAN GOVERNMENT

The representatives of Darfur Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) yesterday rejected a call by the deputy head of the hybrid mission to engage dialogue with the Sudanese government on security issues.

In its efforts to bridge the differences between the Sudanese authorities and the IDPs in the war-torn region of Darfur, the African Union-UN peacekeeping mission on security issues the Deputy Joint Special Representative, Henry Anyidoho held on Tuesday a meeting with local chiefs at Kalma camp, near Nyala, the capital of South Darfur State.

Anyidoho invited the IDPs representatives to "begin discussions with the Government to look into different issues of concern and establish a mechanism to address these issues jointly," the UNAMID said in a statement issued on Wednesday.

The deputy head of the hybrid mission said that UNAMID is working with the Government and the humanitarian community to provide a secure environment so that the IDPs could return to their place of origin.

"While these efforts are underway, the Mission will continue to assist the IDPs in every possible way in line with our mandate and the resources available," he said. However, he also underscored that UNAMID would not replace the role of the Government in this matter of security.

The UN resolution 1769 provides that the protection of civilians is the responsibility of the Sudanese government. The hybrid peacekeeping mission can only intervene to prevent attacks against them if only the civilians are under "imminent threat of physical violence".

Hussein Abusharati the IDPs and refugees spokesperson told Sudan Tribune that they rejected the offer of the UNAMID because "They want to implement an agreement (Abuja deal) that we reject; also such issue should be debated with the SLM and its leader Abdel Wahid Al-Nur during the peace talks not with us," he underlined.

The IDPs spokesperson added that Anyidoho and his delegation angered some of the IDPs chiefs when he called them to deal with the Sudanese security officials to resolve security issues and the individual compensation.

"The local chiefs rejected the call and reiterated their rejection the presence of the Sudanese government officials in the camps. They also stressed that such questions have to be discussed with Abdel Wahid (Al-Nur) once Khartoum implements conducive environment for the talks," Abusharati said.

He further said the IDPs chiefs urge the international community to respond positively to their demand for security" and added "If the UNAMID cannot provide such protection it would be better to transport us in refugee camps outside the country till the resolution of the conflict."

Speaking to the reporters today following a briefing by the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to UN Security Council the Ambassador of Costa Rica hinted that the UN should do more to protect the civilians in Darfur.

"It is the view of my government that we are very close to a case of responsibility to protect, as it was established in the outcome document from the summit of 2005. We have a government who is not willing to or cannot protect its population from genocide, from war crimes, from ethnic cleansing and those are exactly the premises for the responsibility to protect."

"We believe that in the near future the council will have the obligation to take a closer look at the situation in Sudan and probably to look in the many tools that the council has to push the compliance with the decisions of the court," he highlighted.

On August 25, the Sudanese forces killed 32 residents and over 100 injured at Kalma during an attempt to enter the camp. Since the hybrid mission established a 24/7 presence around the camp.

Following the escalation of violence in Darfur five years since the emergence of the rebellion in the region, the United Nations revised its estimations of civilians killed to 300,000 people, it also says that around 2.7 million have been driven from their home. (ST)

Paris-based Darfur war leader Abdel-Wahid Al-Nur tells France-based Sudan Tribune that Sudanese are facing genocide on a daily basis

According to the following article at France-based Sudan Tribune today, Darfur rebel group SLM leader Abdel Wahid Al-Nur spoke to Sudan Tribune urging the UN to assume its reponsibility for protecting people who are facing genocide on a daily basis. Note, Mr Al-Nur is safely based in self imposed exile in Paris, France while aid workers continue to be attacked and peacekeepers are slain by rebels.

Here is a copy of the December 06, 2008 article from El-Fasher, Darfur published at Sudan Tribune December 07 2008. As noted here at Sudan Watch in a previous post [Dec. 3, 08 France based Darfur war leader Abdel-Wahid Al-Nur dismisses all peace initiatives and proposes none] the town of Zanlingei is Mr Al-Nur's birthplace.

SUDAN MILITIAMEN KILL LOCAL CHIEF IN DARFUR CAMP - REBELS
The government backed janjaweed militia killed a local chief at Hassa Hissa camp, near Zanlingei in West Darfur state where a militiaman dead last week following a quarrel with residents from the camps.

Musa Abakr Posh was killed on Saturday in his house inside the camp, his son Al-Fadil told Sudan Tribune. He further said they had fears for the safety of his father because he was targeted by the pro-government militia.

Last Monday a janjaweed died at Zalingei Hosptal after a dispute with some residents of Hassa Hissa camp. The UNAMID said he had tried to take a water pump However, IDPs spokesperson said the militiaman tried to rape a woman.

On Tuesday and as result of yesterday’s death around 30 militiamen, seeking revenge, marched towards the camp shooting in the air sporadically. Yet the Janjaweed destroyed five water pumps supplying the camp.

Abdel Wahid Al-Nur, the SLM leader speaking to Sudan Tribune, urged the international community to provide protection to the IDPs saying that the United Nations gas to assume it responsibility to protect people who are facing genocide on daily basis.

He said the local chief devoted his live to serve the rights and interest of Darfur people since the inception of the conflict in 2003. he added the killing of Posh, proves to the international community that Khartoum is not serious about the unilateral ceasefire announced on November 12.

The mandate of the current peacekeeping mission allows the hybrid forces to intervene to protect civilians only when there is imminent threat in the areas where they are deployed. Also the lack of troops and capability hinder the work if the peacekeeping mission. (ST)


Photo: A rebel member of SLA (Source: Sudan Tribune 07 Dec 08)

See Sudan Watch December 03, 2008: France based Darfur war leader Abdel-Wahid Al-Nur dismisses all peace initiatives and proposes none.

Curfew in place for Juba, S. Sudan over past few weeks

CURFEW IN PLACE FOR JUBA, S. SUDAN OVER PAST FEW WEEKS
December 05, 2008 commentary by Rob Rooker in Juba, South Sudan:

Over the past few weeks a curfew has been put in place for Juba.  It was gazetted in one of the local newspapers, but we didn’t see it.  What we heard were lots of warnings from others that it was now in effect.

It is said to have been put in action to curb an escalation of violence that has been taking place in late hours over the course of the last few months.  There are groups of guys running around robbing people, homes and vehicles and doing all sorts of mayhem.

The idea behind the curfew is a good one.  There needs to be enforcement of law and order in this place to keep it from deteriorating into chaos.

However what worries me is the way those given the power to enforce it are enforcing it now.

We are hearing numerous stories of people being beaten severely, forced to pay money or being thrown in jail for the night.  Other stories coming out of women being taken and gang raped, the men they are with unable to do a thing.  If vehicles don’t stop for the patrolling soldiers, they are liable to open fire.  Granted all of this is hear-say.

A difficulty here is that these soldiers are not always easily identified.

I was going home around 10 p.m. the other night with some friends.  We passed a Land-cruiser that was turning in the middle of the road.  It had no markings.  It was brown or green or something like that. There was one man standing in the back wearing what might have been civilian clothes or something of a military hue.  As we were passing, it seemed that maybe the man was waiving his hands at us to stop.  It wasn’t very clear.  We didn’t stop.  There was a brief moment of fear that maybe they were going to start chasing us.  Fortunately they didn’t.

Its frustrating.  At the end of the day, it seems the ones who are supposed to be protecting and keeping the residents of Juba safe may end up doing more violence on those said residents than the criminals they are supposed to be targeting.

HIV Awareness Poster by American artist Rob Rooker, author of above blog post. (Hi Rob! Love all your work! More pics here later)

Issa Maraut, France's newly appointed special envoy for Darfur, is in Doha to follow the Qatar initiative to establish peace in Darfur

DARFUR/FRANCE: SPECIAL ENVOY APPOINTED
November 26, 2008 EL FASHER (DARFUR), Sudan/APO) -
French ministry of Foreign Affairs Daily Press Briefing,

Taken questions

(…)

Q - It seems the Quai d’Orsay has appointed a diplomat to follow the Darfur dossier. What is his exact mission and is his appointment connected with the Arab League initiative that originated in Qatar?

We appointed a special envoy to follow the Darfur crisis: Issa Maraut, an experienced diplomat who knows the area very well. He was appointed a few weeks ago, is posted in Sudan and speaks Arabic. He’s currently in Doha to follow the Qatar initiative to establish peace in Darfur.

France supports this initiative.

Northern Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) deployed to South Kordofan to ward off potential attacks by JEM

KHARTOUM SENDING TROOPS TO OIL-RICH AREA: SPLM
December 05, 2008 report by Skye Wheeler JUBA, Sudan (Reuters)

The ruling party of Sudan's semi-autonomous south said on Friday the north's armed forces were "unconstitutionally" building up troops in a volatile energy-rich area of central Sudan.

Yein Matthew, spokesman for the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), said the Khartoum government's army had deployed more than six battalions in the past three weeks in the province of South Kordofan, in what he said was a violation of a 2005 peace deal to end a two-decade war between north and south.

"We condemn that SAF (northern Sudan Armed Forces) troops are being taken into South Kordofan," he told reporters. "This is unconstitutional ... this should be discussed."

A spokesman for the SAF was not immediately available for comment. The north's ruling National Congress Party has repeatedly stressed its commitment to the peace deal.

Under the deal, SAF forces were to be reduced to pre-war levels in South Kordofan, one of three "transitional areas" bordering the south where large sections of the population supported the southern rebels during the war.

The International Crisis Group think tank said in October the 2005 peace deal was at risk in South Kordofan, which had "many of the same ingredients" that produced the raging conflict in the neighbouring region of Darfur.

Matthew said Khartoum had told the SPLM the troop build-up was designed to ward off potential attacks by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), a Darfur rebel group.

The Sudanese government accused the rebel group of kidnapping nine Chinese oil workers in South Kordofan in October and killing five of them. The government has promised to beef up security around oil fields in the region.

Matthew, however, said such a task should be handled by joint military units of northern and southern soldiers created under the peace deal, and not by SAF troops.

Sudan produces around 500,000 barrels per day of crude oil, most of it from fields in central and southern provinces.

Northern troops have clashed with the former southern rebels since the peace agreement. In May, they fought in the oil-rich region of Abyei, adjoining South Kordofan.

Dozens of people were killed and 50,000 forced to flee their homes, amid fears a new civil war could erupt.

The peace deal gives the south a right to hold a referendum in 2011 on whether to secede and form an independent state, or keep its current status.

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UPDATE ON SUNDAY 07 DECEMBER 2008

SUDAN CONFIRMS TROOPS DEPLOYMENT IN SOUTH KORDOFAN
December 06, 2008 article from Khartoum, Sudan published at Sudan Tribune December 07, 2008:

Sudanese government confirmed today the military build-up in South Kordofan state saying it had informed the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) about the aim of the move.

The official News agency SUNA said today that the government had sent strong assurances to the SPLA troops in Jawa area, South Kordofan State that the deployment of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) troops means to deter "feverish attempts" by the rebel Justice and Equality Movement to attack the region.

Yesterday a Sudan People’s Liberation spokesperson, Yein Matthew, told the reporters that SAF had deployed more than six battalions in the past three weeks in southern Kordofan adding that such a move constitutes a violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. . Matthew also underscored that such military operation could be carried by the Joint Integrated Units from the SAF and SPLA, which are supposed to be the nucleus of the future Sudanese national army if the result of the 2011 referendum is for the unity f the country.

However, The Sub-Commission on the enforcement of security arrangements in Jawa, south Kordofan reaffirmed d that these statements are destined to develop adversarial climate and cause a rift between the SAF and SPLA, the agency reported.

Under the 2005 peace deal, the Sudan Armed forces were to reduced to pre-war level in southern Kordofan which is one of the three transitional areas.

Sudanese president declared last month unilateral ceasefire in Darfur, but the army accused the rebel movements of trying to exploit the truce to undertake military operations. Khartoum says rebel JEM plans attack in Darfur and southern Kordofan to strengthen its position in possible peace negotiations. (ST)

Genocide in Darfur? To answer it, ICC Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo, like Sudanese President Al-Bashir himself, should be given his day in court

The archives here at Sudan Watch are laden with reports on the question of whether or not genocide took place in Darfur. Here is a sample.

April 09, 2006 post - Juan Mendez, UN Special Adviser on Prevention of Genocide, tells press "definitely ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur" - provides links to the following reports:

Apr 07 2006 UN assembly president calls Darfur violence "ethnic cleansing" - ICC Summary

Apr 07 2006 EU parliament says Darfur is "tantamount to genocide"

Apr 07 2006 UN's Mendez on Darfur: "Left unattended, the situation may degenerate into genocide"

Apr 08 2006 UN Action Plan to Prevent Genocide - Juan E Mendez of Argentina, Special Adviser on Prevention of Genocide

Apr 08 2006 What is the difference between genocide and ethnic cleansing?

Apr 09 2006 The Genocide Convention required States to prevent genocide - Mendez

Apr 10 2006 Mendez: Action is particularly needed in Darfur, where the threat of genocide continues to loom large

Going by those reports, it would appear that ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has taken it upon himself to use the word genocide in reference to the Darfur rebellion. He is not judge and jury.

"Genocide in Darfur? To answer it, the prosecutor, like Bashir himself, should be given his day in court", writes Philip B. Heymann and Martha Minow in the following commentary for the Boston Globe November 28, 2008. Note, the authors are professors of law at Harvard Law School.

GENOCIDE IN DARFUR? LET THE COURT DECIDE:

IS THERE a legal basis for the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan for genocide?

The crime of genocide has been widely accepted as the most heinous offense against human dignity. Although the term can sometimes be used loosely in political debates, it has a very precise and narrow legal definition. And rightly so.

According to the Genocide Convention of 1948, the crime of genocide is "any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: killing members of the group; causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; [and] forcibly transferring children of the group to another group."

These definitional requirements are more than mere legal formalities. If the crime of genocide is deemed to occur, the Convention triggers mandatory prosecution requirements. The particular opprobrium that is attached to genocide should be reserved for those who have unquestionably violated its terms. Meanwhile, mass atrocities that do not satisfy the precise definition of genocide can still be prosecuted as crimes against humanity or war crimes.

A public dispute exists over whether the situation in Darfur meets the legal definition of genocide. In 2005, a Commission of Inquiry established by the Security Council concluded that while mass crimes had been committed against protected groups, there was insufficient evidence that the intent of the perpetrators was to destroy that group - as opposed to driving them from the territory in question.

But then, earlier this year, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court announced that he would seek an arrest warrant for Bashir for, among other crimes, genocide. How can the apparent contradiction between the two determinations be explained?

The answer lies in the law and facts considered by each body and the different standards applied. The Commission of Inquiry found that it could not conclude that there was genocidal intent in part because the perpetrators did not kill all the members of the targeted groups they attacked. Instead, in some cases, they drove survivors to camps for internally displaced persons where they received humanitarian relief. However, as the Commission acknowledges, the selective killing of certain members of a protected group may be consistent with genocidal intent.

Moreover, in his application for a warrant the prosecutor emphasizes that the perpetrators also subjected the targeted groups to systematic rape, torture, the destruction of their basic means of life, and mass displacement. Taken together, these acts justify an inference of genocidal intent.

The prosecutor has since gathered evidence of the horrendous conditions of life in the camps, as well as the Sudanese government's obstruction of humanitarian relief aimed at the camps. This is fully consistent with the conclusion that the Sudanese government, acting together with the Janjaweed, sought to destroy the targeted groups in whole or in part.

The prosecutor also has a different standard of proof at this stage. The Commission of Inquiry acted as a "fact-finding body" and sought to reach conclusions of fact and law based on the available evidence. To obtain an arrest warrant under the criminal court statute, the prosecutor is obliged only to establish that "reasonable grounds" exist to believe that the perpetrators have committed the crime of genocide.

This standard, which is comparable to a probable cause showing in the United States, requires inferences to be drawn in favor of the prosecutor and is satisfied if the supporting evidence is consistent with the alleged crime. Only at trial, the prosecutor would have to prove beyond reasonable doubt that Bashir committed the crime of genocide - that the only reasonable inference to be drawn from the evidence is that Bashir intended to destroy the targeted groups in whole or in part.

So do the findings of the commission undermine the prosecutor's request for an arrest warrant for Bashir for genocide? No. The factual allegations in the prosecutor's request are, if supported by the evidence provided confidentially to the court, sufficient for a warrant of arrest to issue.

Through its referral of the Sudan case, the Security Council placed its confidence in the prosecutor of a court that has been joined by 108 countries around the world. Whether the International Criminal Court will find Bashir's liability for genocide beyond a reasonable doubt is an open question.

To answer it, the prosecutor, like Bashir himself, should be given his day in court.

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GERARD PRUNIER: DARFUR IS NOT GENOCIDE

From Sudan Watch archive July 29, 2006:

Gerard Prunier: Darfur is not genocide. Jim 'Second Superpower' Moore put the spotlight on Sudan's Darfur




Darfur: The Ambiguous Genocide by Gerard Prunier via Amazon.com

Sudan's minister for humanitarian affairs points his finger at rebel groups and western imperialists

Wanted by the ICC over claims he orchestrated violence that left up to 200,000 dead, Sudan's minister for humanitarian affairs, Ahmad Muhammad Harun (pictured here below), points his finger at rebel groups and western imperialists.



MAN BLAMED FOR DARFUR SAYS I AM AT PEACE WITH MYSELF
December 04, 2008 (The Guardian) report by Simon Tisdall in Khartoum, Sudan:

The man accused by the international criminal court of planning, organising and directing an orgy of violence against civilians in Darfur that left up to 200,000 people dead and 2.5 million homeless has angrily protested his innocence, calling the allegations part of a political plot by the western powers to recolonise Sudan.

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian, Ahmad Muhammad Harun, Sudan's minister of state for humanitarian affairs, said he defied the ICC and the international community to do their worst and vowed never to give himself up to the tribunal.

Harun claimed the evidence against him was concocted and unreliable. And he described the court's chief prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, as a disgrace to the legal profession who should be sacked. "My conscience is clear. I have no regrets," Harun said. "What I have done was legal, it was my responsibility, it was my duty. I am content. I am at peace with myself."

The ICC has charged Harun, in his former capacity as Sudan's minister of state for the interior, with 42 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed in Darfur in the period from August 2003 to March 2004.

The eight-month period witnessed a peak in fighting between rebel and pro-government forces. The large-scale civilian casualties, gross human rights abuses and mass displacement later caused the US government to accuse Sudan's political leadership of genocide and led to UN and EU sanctions against Sudan.

The Darfur carnage caused international outrage that has yet to abate as the violence there continues, albeit at a reduced level. Numerous efforts to forge a lasting peace agreement during the past five years have foundered while hundreds of thousands of people remain in refugee camps. Meanwhile, human rights and advocacy groups have added their voices to calls for Harun and other alleged war criminals on both sides to be prosecuted.

But Sudan is not a party to the ICC. It has so far ignored UN security council demands that it cooperate with the court and surrender Harun and his co-accused, Ali Muhammad Ali Abd-al-Rahman, an alleged Janjaweed leader also known as Ali Kushayb.

ICC judges are currently considering a request by Moreno-Ocampo for an arrest warrant for Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, on charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity also relating to events in Darfur.

Speaking in his ministry's smart new offices in Khartoum, Harun said the ICC was in effect conducting a political vendetta against Sudan that had little or nothing to do with justice.

Relaxed and confident

Throughout the interview, Harun, a tall 43-year-old dressed in a smart charcoal suit and open-necked shirt, appeared mostly relaxed and confident. Occasionally his eyes flashed with anger as he discussed the accusations against him.

"We believe the ICC has digressed from its main objective and become part of the international political conflict. It is another phase of international colonisation. It targets mainly the Africans. It reminds us of the 19th century when the white people were dominating here in Africa.

"The main aim of the white people in Africa at that time, the British and the Europeans, was to disseminate their culture and their traditions. Under the flag of attractive slogans, so many things happened. Now there is a new imperial era but this time it is led by the United States and supported by the Europeans."

Harun, a trained lawyer from the Bargo tribe in western Sudan and a former judge, argued that UN security council resolution 1593 that referred Darfur to the ICC in 2005 was discriminatory because it exempted citizens of the US, which like Sudan is not a party to the ICC's founding treaty, from action by the court. For this reason, the ICC prosecutor was ignoring the "first principle" of equality before the law.

"This is a discriminatory prosecution. It is also discriminatory because the ICC is targeting only African countries," Harun said. "Also, any serious investigation should begin on the ground, in theatre, in Darfur. And witnesses who are part of the problem should not be taken into consideration. They are not reliable sources."

Suggesting the ICC investigation was superfluous as well as politically motivated, Harun said a national investigation committee created by Bashir had examined many senior officials over their roles in Darfur. "I was one of them. I gave answers to all their questions. No action was taken. There was no evidence, so there was no reason to take action."

Harun added that any future move to indict Bashir, or any backroom deal in which he himself might be handed over to the ICC in return for Bashir being granted immunity, would only prove his contention that the ICC proceedings were political. In such circumstances, he said, he would never voluntarily surrender himself. And nor was he prepared to meet Moreno-Ocampo if the latter came to Khartoum.

"The prosecutor has brought his profession into disrespect. He is not welcome in Sudan ... He should be replaced. This is what we are requesting. I add my voice to the voices of the international society because he is insulting the profession of justice and insulting African countries."

Asked to explain his actions in Darfur in 2003-4, Harun said he had faced an internal, essentially local conflict between Darfurian tribes that quickly transformed into a political conflict with encouragement from forces outside the province.

Rebel leaders Minni Minnawi, Abd al-Wahid Muhammad Nur, and Abdallah Abbakar initially called themselves the Darfur Liberation Movement, he said. But this later became the Sudan Liberation Movement as external actors got involved.

The Darfur rebellion, also fuelled by Khalil Ibrahim's opposition-backed Justice and Equality Movement, threatened the stability of the Sudanese state as a whole, for example by undermining the 2005 North-South comprehensive peace agreement which was then nearing fruition, Harun said. The government had no choice but to act.

"The policy and tactics of the government, like any other government when things like this are happening, is to begin by mobilising.

"We have a security reserve force - the Popular Defence Forces - to respond to those attacks, a paramilitary force. Some people call the PDF by different names, some call it militia, others are calling it Janjaweed. But it is a formal force and it works under the directions of the army."

Unable to match pro-government forces militarily, the rebels changed tactics and created a humanitarian crisis in Darfur to attract international attention and intervention, he said.

Rebels blamed

"They started putting pressure on civilians to move out of villages, they killed their children, women they abducted, they destroyed the infrastructure and means of people's livelihood, and caused the mass migration of people into refugee camps."

In other words, he suggested, it was the rebel groups that were responsible for the civilian massacres, atrocities and mass displacements in 2003-4, not himself or the government. Sudan's government in any case disputes the UN's casualty estimates, claiming only about 10,000 people died.

Reports that he boasted in a 2003 speech that he had "the power and the authority to kill or forgive whoever in Darfur" were fabricated, Harun added. And he insisted his 2004 description of the rebels as "fish" who needed the "water" of the villages to survive (thereby allegedly justifying the destruction of villages) was a distortion of his meaning.

People in Darfur knew the truth, he said, which was why he was still welcome there. "I move freely in Darfur. I have strong support. I am popular in Darfur because they know who protected them."

Leaning back in a well-padded armchair with a broad smile on his face, Harun said he was a religious man who had done nothing to offend against God. But he did not claim to have a close relationship with the Almighty.

"I am not like George Bush. I do not talk to God. In Islam, we believe Muhammad was the last prophet. Since Muhammad, no one can talk to God."

As for the future, he suggested relations between Sudan and the international community would deteriorate further if the ICC persisted with its present course. A total breach with the UN was not out of the question.

Harun's openly defiant stance underlines how difficult it may be to bring justice to Darfur while avoiding an open confrontation with Sudan and, at one remove, its African Union and Arab League allies. If allowed to continue unanswered, it also threatens the credibility of the ICC.

"We don't expect anything good from the ICC. But for every action, there will be a response," Harun said. "The ICC will do whatever they want. We will wait and see what they do. We will defend our country as best we can to the best of our ability, according to our opinions."

Backstory

The international criminal court was established in 2002 as an independent tribunal to try individuals responsible for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. It was designed to complement national legal systems, stepping in when a country appeared unable or unwilling to prosecute. More than 100 countries are members.

Atrocities committed by rebel commanders in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and by the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda prompted the opening of the first cases in 2004. Investigations into abuses in Sudan's Darfur region began a year later.

In February 2007, ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo announced that Sudanese minister Ahmad Harun and Janjaweed militia leader Ali Kushayb were suspected of committing crimes against humanity. The indictment and warrant for their arrests, dated April 2007, specifically accuses Harun of targeting the ethnic African Fur, Zaghawa and Masalit tribes by employing elements of the Sudanese armed forces and Popular Defence Forces paramilitaries, and by "recruiting, arming and funding" irregular Arab militias known as Janjaweed

According to the court, pro-government forces over which Harun exercised command launched a campaign of terror that included "murders of civilians, rapes and outrages upon the personal dignity of women and girls ... and destruction of property and pillaging of towns".

The indictment claims that the campaign was of a "systematic and widespread nature" conducted "over an extensive period of time... in furtherance of a state or organisational policy consisting in attacking the civilian population".

It goes on: "Ahmad Harun intentionally contributed to the commission of the above-mentioned crimes ... In his public speeches, Harun not only demonstrated he knew the militia/Janjaweed were attacking civilians and pillaging towns and villages but also personally encouraged the commission of such illegal acts."

- - -

SUDAN MINISTER: ICC CASE A PLOT
December 04, 2008 BBC report - excerpt:

Following his appearance at the 15-member UN Security Council on Wednesday, ICC Prosecutor Mr Moreno-Ocampo told the BBC's Network Africa programme: "I briefed them about the importance that the Council could not be part of the cover-up of the crimes. "Because [President] Bashir's responsibility is not just ordering committing the crimes, he's also providing the cover-up."



Photo: Ahmed Haroun said his conscience was clear over Darfur

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Further reading:

ICC website www.icc - Warrants of Arrest for the Minister of State for Humanitarian Affairs of Sudan, and a leader of the Militia/Janjaweed, The Hague, 02 May 2007.

Photo source: www.trial-ch.org - Ahmad Mohammed Harun: Accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity; arrest warrant issued by the ICC on 02 May 2007; Red Notice issued by Interpol on 19 September 2007; released by the Sudanese government on 1st October 2007 for lack of evidence. Position: Former Secretary of State for the Interior, head of the Darfur Security Desk.

What's going on? UN says Darfur no longer an emergency while ICC prosecutor says genocide continues in Darfur

Oh dear, what is going on? A previous post here today at Sudan Watch quotes the UN as saying that Darfur, in many cases, is no longer an emergency. But, according to a Reuters report copied here below, ICC Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo told the UN Security Council today that:

"Genocide continues. Rapes in and around the (refugee) camps continue. Humanitarian assistance is still hindered. More than 5,000 displaced persons die each month."

ICC PROSECUTOR WARNS UN AGAINS SUDAN COVERUP
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 03 2008 (Reuters) report by Patrick Worsnip:

The International Criminal Court prosecutor told the United Nations on Wednesday to be prepared to arrest Sudan's president on genocide charges and to guard against any coverup.

ICC judges in the The Hague are considering a request by the prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Campo, for a warrant against President Omar Hassan al-Bashir on the charges for crimes in the war-torn Darfur region. A decision is expected next month.

Moreno-Ocampo told the 15-nation U.N. Security Council it "must be prepared. If the judges decide to issue an arrest warrant against President al-Bashir, there will be a need for united and consistent action to ensure its execution."

Moreno-Ocampo accused Bashir of promising ceasefires then ordering bombing raids in Darfur, of denying that mass rapes were taking place and of promising justice while torturing witnesses.

"Genocide continues. Rapes in and around the (refugee) camps continue. Humanitarian assistance is still hindered. More than 5,000 displaced persons die each month," he said.

Bashir's "criminal actions should not be ignored," the prosecutor said. "The international community cannot be part of any coverup of genocide or crimes against humanity."

African and Arab states have criticized Moreno-Ocampo's attempt to bring Bashir before the ICC and suggested the Security Council should delay any proceedings.

In a separate, written report to the council, Moreno-Ocampo called on U.N. member states to back up any arrest warrants by severing nonessential contact with indictees and imposing travel bans and asset freezes on them.

The prosecutor has also requested warrants against three Darfur rebel commanders whose names have not been made public.

Sudan's U.N. ambassador, Abdalmahmoud Abdalhaleem, accused Moreno-Ocampo of "political blackmail."

"He's increasingly transforming the ICC into a tool that has nothing to do with justice," Abdalhaleem told Reuters, adding that most countries in the world want the Security Council to suspend the investigation against Bashir.

U.N. officials say up to 300,000 people have been killed since the Darfur conflict erupted five years ago and that 2.7 million have been driven from their homes. Khartoum says 10,000 people have died. (Editing by Doina Chiacu)

Note the prosectuor's sweeping statement: "More than 5,000 displaced persons die each month". Surely of the 4.7 million people in Darfur currently receiving UN aid, many thousands are expected to die each month anyway - as is the case each month in every other country. What is Mr Moreno-Ocampo basing his numbers on? Is he implying 5,000 Darfurians are killed each month as a result of conflict?

Here's another thing. Since when was it proven that Darfur was or is genocide? Mr Moreno-Ocampo behaves like judge and jury. The text here below that I have highlighted in red seem to me to be statements of opinion, not facts. Mr Moreno-Ocampo sounds like he has a vendetta against the Sudanese government. He does not appear to be even handed.

Aren't people accused of genocide innocent until proven guilty? When people's lives, reputations and country are at stake, including the security of neighbouring countries, facts and evidence are what we expect from the ICC, not speculation and opinion from the one and only prosecutor. Shame on the ICC for allowing such brazen and damaging unprofessional remarks. To be fair, perhaps Mr Moreno-Ocampo has been working too hard and needs a holiday. Or, who knows what's really going on behind the scenes, maybe he is on his way out.

Here's another reason I can think of. Since Mr Bashir is being blatantly prejudged by the ICC he could never get a fair trial as too much stuff was floated in public. I know what I am trying to say but am too tired right now to find the right words.

Right now I am feeling deflated and disillusioned by so many twisted lies and machinations in the press. I actually feel sorry for Mr Bashir because I believe he has worked tirelessly to hold Sudan together and has done a good job. Sudan could so easily have gone under and turned into a Somalia. Sudan is not a failed state as some pundits predicted, thanks to Mr Bashir and his hardworking team. They deserve more credit and respect. Some readers here might find it odd but I find reports out of Sudan more truthful than those bandied around by Western groups driven by self interest.

The other reason I feel so disappointed is that this latest news from the ICC is music to the rebels ears and emboldens them along with millions of their uneducated followers sitting doing nothing at the expense of millions of hardworking, law abiding tax payers around the world. I wish that Britain would stop sending aid to Africa and have a rethink. We are now in a recession and cannot afford to waste more money on lowlife rebels and their followers when the lives of our own citizens are at risk because of a shortage of resources for adequate medical care, medicines and fuel for heating. Poor people are also suffering in the UK. Most Africans don't ever appreciate our help anyway, in fact a lot of them resent it and see it as interfering, harking back to "colonialism". I say let's take a break to take care of our own country and let them get on with theirs.
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IF INDICTED, AL-BASHIR DESTINED TO FACE JUSTICE BEFORE UN COURT
December 03, 2008 Deutsche Presse-Agentur report via Africa News

New York - The United Nations' top prosecutor said Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir was destined to face justice if he is indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) later this month for his role in the deadly Darfur conflict.

ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo earlier this year requested an arrest warrant for al-Bashir on seven counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Sudan's war-torn Darfur region. Moreno-Ocampo said he expects the ICC's judges to rule on his request some time in December.

The ethnic conflict in Darfur has pitted Khartoum-backed Arab militias against African rebel groups, resulting in more than 300,000 deaths since 2005 and more than 2.5 million refugees. The US has labelled the militants' campaign genocide.

Moreno-Ocampo, briefing the UN Security Council in New York on his investigation, accused al-Bashir of 'inciting violence' over the charges and threatening UN peacekeepers in the region.

The UN Security Council originally tasked Moreno-Ocampo with building a case against the perpetrators of war crimes in Darfur. But some have criticized Moreno-Ocampo's case against al-Bashir as politically motivated and endangering ongoing peace talks in the region.

The Arab League and African Union have called on the 15-nation Security Council to block al-Bashir's indictment if it goes ahead. Moreno-Ocampo defended his decision, telling reporters that his job was to 'follow the evidence' wherever it leads.

Two people have already been indicted by the ICC - the country's interior minister and a member of the Arab Janjaweed militia - and Moreno-Ocampo is seeking arrest warrants for four more, including al- Bashir.

Moreno-Ocampo said he has received 'zero' cooperation from the Sudanese government in his investigation but held out hope that al- Bashir would be brought to justice eventually, even if Sudan, as expected, does not deliver him to The Hague-based international court.

'Realistically, I think he will face justice - I don't know (if) in two months or two years,' Moreno-Ocampo said. 'If he is indicted, realistically al-Bashir's destiny is to face justice.'

An ICC indictment means al-Bashir would potentially face arrest any time he travelled outside of Sudan.

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SECURITY COUNCIL MUST ACT IF ARREST WARRANT IS ISSUED FOR SUDAN LEADER - PROSECUTOR

December 03, 2008 UN News Centre report

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) today called for concerted action by the Security Council to enforce any arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for allegedly committing war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Darfur if the judges issue one.

“Genocide continues. Rapes in and around the [internally displaced persons’] camps continue. Humanitarian assistance is still hindered. More than 5,000 displaced persons die each month,” ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said in a briefing on the west Sudanese region, where more than five years of fighting between Government forces, allied Janjaweed militia and rebel groups have killed an estimated 300,000 people and driven another 2.7 million from their homes.

“The international community cannot conceal the crimes. President al-Bashir’s criminal actions should not be ignored, statements of ceasefire followed by bombings, denial of massive rapes or promises of justice while torturing the witness should not be supported,” he added, citing numerous such examples that he said had occurred over the past year.

“The international community cannot be part of any cover-up of genocide or crimes against humanity.”

Mr. Moreno-Ocampo requested the arrest warrant in July. “The Council must be prepared. If the judges decide to issue an arrest warrant against President al-Bashir, there will be a need for united and consistent action to ensure its execution,” he told the 15-member body, whose decisions are binding.

Asked at a news conference later what could be realistically expected if a warrant was issued, he replied: “Realistically, I think he will face justice, I don’t know if in two months, or two years.” He said that in the case of a warrant, within Sudan it would be up to the courts to act, but Mr. al-Bashir would be arrested if he flew around the world.

Referring to the joint UN-African Union mission in Darfur (UNAMID), the prosecutor told the Council peacekeepers and aid workers should not be forced to work in an environment where the crimes they are trying to prevent are ordered by Mr. al-Bashir himself. “In such an environment, their efforts will never be enough,” he added.

The prosecutor said three human rights defenders were arrested in Khartoum last week and tortured for giving information to the ICC and that so-called “suspected ICC witnesses” are arrested and tried for treason.

Mr. al-Bashir used the illusion of militia/Janjaweed autonomy for years to disguise the Darfur conflict as a tribal one and “this helped him to continue to carry out the genocide in the face of international scrutiny,” he added.

The ICC has already issued arrest warrants for Ahmad Muhammad Harun, former Minister of State for the Interior and currently Minister of State for Humanitarian Affairs, and Janjaweed militia leader Ali Kushayb. Mr. Moreno-Ocampo has also requested arrest warrants for three rebel commanders, whose names have not yet been disclosed, for their role in last year’s deadly attack against peacekeepers in Darfur.

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Snapshot of Google's newsreel Wed 03 Dec 2008 22:57 GMT

ICC Prosecutor Warns of Possible Sudanese Reprisals if Bashir ...
Voice of America - 1 hour ago
By Margaret Besheer The chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Court told the UN Security Council on Wednesday that the court might soon decide ...

ICC prosecutor: Sudan leader 'inciting violence'
The Associated Press - 1 hour ago
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court cautioned the UN Wednesday to be prepared for reprisals in Darfur if he ...

Darfur genocide continues: ICC prosecutor
AFP - 2 hours ago
UNITED NATIONS (AFP) — The government of Sudan is still supporting genocide in Darfur, including through rape and holding up humanitarian aid, ...

UN 'must' support Bashir arrest
Aljazeera.net, Qatar - 3 hours ago
Louis Moreno-Campo told the UN Security Council that should the court decide to issue a warrant for al-Bashir's arrest there should be there will be "united ...

UN urged to support Sudan arrest
BBC News, UK - 4 hours ago
The International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor has warned the UN Security Council not to shield Sudan's president if the court issues an arrest warrant. ...

Prosecutor warns UN to prepare for Darfur ruling
The Associated Press - 5 hours ago
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court cautions "it is time to be prepared" for reprisals in Darfur if he obtains a ...

Rape as genocide
International Herald Tribune, France - 7 hours ago
By David Scheffer 'In this society if you rape one woman, you have raped the entire tribe" - so said one observer of the mass rape occurring in Darfur. ...

Roger Cohen: A court for a new America
International Herald Tribune, France - 7 hours ago
By Roger Cohen THE HAGUE: Of the many issues that have soured relations between Europe and the United States under the Bush administration, few have been as ...

Rights Groups: Sudan Lying About Improvements in Darfur
Voice of America - Dec 2, 2008
By VOA News 15 human rights organizations said in a joint report released Tuesday, the Sudanese government is lying about improvements in the situation in ...

Eighth report of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal ...
ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland - 26 minutes ago
1. The present report is submitted by the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) pursuant to paragraph 8 of UN Security Council Resolution ...

If indicted, Al-Bashir destined to face justice before UN court
Monsters and Critics.com - 2 hours ago
New York - The United Nations' top prosecutor said Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir was destined to face justice if he is indicted by the ...

Security Council must act if arrest warrant is issued for Sudanese ...
UN News Centre - 2 hours ago
3 December 2008 – The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) today called for concerted action by the Security Council to enforce any arrest ...

ICC prosecutor warns UN against shielding Bashir
New Sudan Vision, Canada - 3 hours ago
Ocampo said UN members should respect judges’ decision should it issue arrest warrants of Sudanese president. December, 3, 2008 (NSV) - International ...

ANALYSIS: ICC arrest warrant for Sudan president likely to be ...
Sudan Tribune, Sudan - 15 hours ago
By Wasil Ali December 2, 2008 (WASHINGTON) — A long awaited decision by the judges of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on the indictment of Sudanese ...

ICC prosecutor warns UN against Sudan coverup
Reuters UK, UK - 2 hours ago
By Patrick Worsnip UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The International Criminal Court prosecutor told the United Nations on Wednesday to prepare to arrest Sudan's ...

ICC prosecutor warns UN against Sudan coverup
Reuters UK, UK - 4 hours ago
By Patrick Worsnip UNITED NATIONS, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The International Criminal Court prosecutor told the United Nations on Wednesday to be prepared to ...

ICC Prosecutor urges UN members to implement decision on Sudanese ...
African Press Agency, Senegal - 6 hours ago
APA-The Hague (Netherlands) In his briefing to the United Nations Security Council on the situation in Darfur on Wednesday, the Prosecutor of the ...

High noon in Darfur
WorldNetDaily, OR - 16 hours ago
Sudan's president, Gen. Omar al-Bashir, is scared. Having flimflammed the United Nations and flouted its resolutions warning him to stop the mass killings ...
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Here's Nicholas Kristof's opinion piece at NY Times blog December 3, 2008::

Arresting President Bashir

The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno Ocampo, briefed the U.N. Security Council today on his investigation of genocide in Darfur. Moreno Ocampo indicted Sudan’s President, Omar al-Bashir, in July for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, and the court is expected to issue the arrest warrant in January or perhaps February, so he used his speech to urge the Security Council to get ready:

If Security Council members can act together, the crimes will stop and millions of lives will be saved. If different interests prevent a strong and consistent position in support of the Court’s decisions, if they give room to false promises, rapes will continue, destruction will continue. An opportunity is coming. A united Security Council can make a difference…. No political support, no financial aid should be provided to those individuals subject of an arrest warrant or those protecting them. For those assisting the indictees, individual travel bans and freezing of assets should be considered as appropriate….An indicted person travelling on the territory of an UN member State should be arrested and surrendered to the Court.

The Bush and Obama administrations need to work with other countries to prepare for the indictment. It’s absolutely certain that the court will issue the arrest warrant in some form. There is a possibility that the counts will not include genocide, but only crimes against humanity and war crimes, but in any case the arrest warrant is coming and we need to get ready. If we can ensure that there is a united front around the world — particularly including China and African countries — then Bashir will be out by spring. If, for example, China sent word that it wouldn’t transfer weapons to Sudan if its head of state were an indicted war criminal, then Sudan’s elites would quickly throw Bashir under the bus (and there are lots of rumors that such a step may be coming).

So lets hope that the indictment will be a step toward an end to the Darfur genocide, and that U.N. member countries will agree to cut ties with Bashir once he is indicted. We have a ray of hope in Darfur now, for the first time in a long while.

I couldn't disagree more. See Sudan Watch Thursday, August 21, 2008: Sudan's leader al-Bashir says ready to go to war.