Sudan: Janjaweed leader Musa Hilal, master of Mohamed Hamdam “Hemeti” Dagolo during their brutal campaign in Darfur should be tried by ICC

Note from Sudan Watch Editor: When I started reading the below copied news report published at BBC News online on 20 July, I marvelled at its author. The report is so well written and researched I thought the BBC had hired an incredible new journalist. At the end of the report I saw the author’s name: Alex de Waal. I should have guessed, nobody can write about Sudan like Alex can. The report is a must-read. 

Note, beneath Alex's report I have copied and pasted a copy of a BBC news report dated 2017 showing that Musa Hilal and his son were arrested. I am surprised not more has been made of that piece of news. Where is Mr Hilal and his son now, I wonder. The report suggests he was taken to Khartoum. Is he hidden behind the scenes or in the same prison as ex-President Omar Al-Bashir? Musa Hilal was elected into the Sudanese government. Click on the tags for Musa Hilal at this blog, or type in his name in the search box here at Sudan Watch to read reports from the archive. Musa Hilal, along with Hemeti, ought to be put on trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) to answer for their war crimes and crimes against humanity. In my view, they are so ruthless and lacking in fear, remorse and compassion, I believe they are psychopaths who have gotten away with many terrible murders.

Note the following excerpt from Rebecca Hamilton's 3 Dec 2009 article entitled The Monster of Darfur:

"As Hilal explains it, Arabs were forced to flee their villages long before any “zurga” (literally “black,” a derogatory term for non-Arabs). But, he added scathingly, “[W]e would never go to a [displaced persons] camp and be seen as beggars." To solve the crisis in Darfur, Arabs have to be in charge, he continued. "We have the majority in the field. We have the majority of the livestock. There can be no solution without us”. He sat back in his chair and lit a cigarette. “I am not the leader of the Janjaweed. I am the leader of all the Arab tribes in Darfur,” Hilal said, his relaxed confidence returning." [Read more here: https://newrepublic.com/article/71627/the-monster-darfur]

BBC News report

By Alex de Waal

Published 20 July 2019

Sudan crisis: The ruthless mercenaries who run the country for gold

Photo: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been accused of widespread abuses in Sudan, including the 3 June massacre in which more than 120 people were reportedly killed, with many of the dead dumped in the River Nile Sudan expert Alex de Wall charts their rise. (Photo credit AFP)

The RSF are now the real ruling power in Sudan. They are a new kind of regime: a hybrid of ethnic militia and business enterprise, a transnational mercenary force that has captured a state.

Their commander is General Mohamed Hamdan "Hemeti" Dagolo, and he and his fighters have come a long way since their early days as a rag-tag Arab militia widely denigrated as the "Janjaweed".

The RSF was formally established by decree of then-President Omar al-Bashir in 2013. But their core of 5,000 militiamen had been armed and active long before then.

Their story begins in 2003, when Mr Bashir's government mobilised Arab herders to fight against black African insurgents in Darfur.

'Meet the Janjaweed'

The core of the Janjaweed were camel-herding nomads from the Mahamid and Mahariya branches of the Rizeigat ethnic group of northern Darfur and adjoining areas of Chad - they ranged across the desert edge long before the border was drawn.

During the 2003-2005 Darfur war and massacres, the most infamous Janjaweed leader was Musa Hilal, chief of the Mahamid.

Human rights groups accuse Musa Hilal of leading a brutal campaign in Darfur  Image copyright AFP

As these fighters proved their bloody efficacy, Mr Bashir formalised them into a paramilitary force called the Border Intelligence Units.

One brigade, active in southern Darfur, included a particularly dynamic young fighter, Mohamed Dagolo, known as "Hemeti" because of his baby-faced looks - Hemeti being a mother's endearing term for "Little Mohamed".

A school dropout turned small-time trader, he was a member of the Mahariya clan of the Rizeigat. Some say that his grandfather was a junior chief when they resided in Chad.

A crucial interlude in Hemeti's career occurred in 2007, when his troops became discontented over the government's failure to pay them.

They felt they had been exploited - sent to the frontline, blamed for atrocities, and then abandoned.

Hemeti and his fighters mutinied, promising to fight Khartoum "until judgement day", and tried to cut a deal with the Darfur rebels.

A documentary shot during this time, called Meet the Janjaweed, shows him recruiting volunteers from Darfur's black African Fur ethnic group into his army, to fight alongside his Arabs, their former enemies.

Although Hemeti's commanders are all from his own Mahariya clan, he has been ready to enlist men of all ethnic groups. On one recent occasion the RSF absorbed a breakaway faction of the rebel Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) - led by Mohamedein Ismail "Orgajor", an ethnic Zaghawa - another Darfur community which had been linked to the rebels.

Consolidating power

Hemeti went back to Khartoum when he was offered a sweet deal: back pay for his troops, ranks for his officers (he became a brigadier general - to the chagrin of army officers who had gone to staff college and climbed the ranks), and a handsome cash payment.

His troops were put under the command of the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), at that time organising a proxy war with Chad.

Some of Hemeti's fighters, serving under the banner of the Chadian opposition, fought their way as far as the Chadian capital, N'Djamena, in 2008.

Meanwhile, Hemeti fell out with his former master, Hilal - their feud was to be a feature of Darfur for 10 years. Hilal was a serial mutineer, and Mr Bashir's generals found Hemeti more dependable.

In 2013, a new paramilitary force was formed under Hemeti and called the RSF.

The army chief of staff did not like it - he wanted the money to go to strengthening the regular forces - and Mr Bashir was worried about putting too much power in the hands of NISS, having just fired its director for allegedly conspiring against him.

So the RSF was made answerable to Mr Bashir himself - the president gave Hemeti the nickname "Himayti", meaning "My Protector".

Training camps were set up near the capital, Khartoum. Hundreds of Land Cruiser pick-up trucks were imported and fitted out with machine guns.

RSF troops fought against rebels in South Kordofan - they were undisciplined and did not do well - and against rebels in Darfur, where they did better.

Gold rush

Hemeti's rivalry with Hilal intensified when gold was discovered at Jebel Amir in North Darfur state in 2012.

Coming at just the moment when Sudan was facing an economic crisis because South Sudan had broken away, taking with it 75% of the country's oil, this seemed like a godsend.

Sudan is one of Africa’s biggest gold producers

But it was more of a curse. Tens of thousands of young men flocked to a remote corner of Darfur in a latter-day gold rush to try their luck in shallow mines with rudimentary equipment.

Some struck gold and became rich, others were crushed in collapsing shafts or poisoned by the mercury and arsenic used to process the nuggets

Hilal's militiamen forcibly took over the area, killing more than 800 people from the local Beni Hussein ethnic group, and began to get rich by mining and selling the gold.

Some gold was sold to the government, which paid above the market price in Sudanese money because it was so desperate to get its hands on gold that it could sell on in Dubai for hard currency.

Meanwhile some gold was smuggled across the border to Chad, where it was profitably exchanged in a racket involving buying stolen vehicles and smuggling them back into Sudan.

Hemeti has loyal supporters outside the capital

In the desert markets of Tibesti in northern Chad, a 1.5kg (3.3lb) of unwrought gold was bartered for a 2015 model Land Cruiser, probably stolen from an aid agency in Darfur, which was then driven back to Darfur, fitted out with hand-painted licence plates and resold.

By 2017, gold sales accounted for 40% of Sudan's exports. And Hemeti was keen to control them.

He already owned some mines and had set up a trading company known as al-Junaid. But when Hilal challenged Mr Bashir one more time, denying the government access to Jebel Amir's mines, Hemeti's RSF went on the counter-attack.

In November 2017, his forces arrested Hilal [ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42141938 ], and the RSF took over Sudan's most lucrative gold mines.

Regional muscle

Hemeti overnight became the country's biggest gold trader and - by controlling the border with Chad and Libya - its biggest border guard. Hilal remains in prison.

Under the Khartoum Process, the European Union funded the Sudanese government to control migration across the Sahara to Libya.

Although the EU consistently denies it, many Sudanese believe that this gave license to the RSF to police the border, extracting bribes, levies and ransoms - and doing its share of trafficking too.

RSF fighters have fought for Yemen’s government in the civil war which is devastating the country

Dubai is the destination for almost all of Sudan's gold, official or smuggled. But Hemeti's contacts with the UAE soon became more than just commercial.

In 2015, the Sudanese government agreed to send a battalion of regular forces to serve with the Saudi-Emirati coalition forces in Yemen - its commander was Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, now chair of the ruling Transitional Military Council.

But a few months later, the UAE struck a parallel deal with Hemeti to send a much larger force of RSF fighters, for combat in south Yemen and along the Tahama plain - which includes the port city of Hudaydah, the scene of fierce fighting last year.

Hemeti also provided units to help guard the Saudi Arabian border with Yemen.

By this time, the RSF's strength had grown tenfold. Its command structure didn't change: all are Darfurian Arabs, its generals sharing the Dagolo name.

With 70,000 men and more than 10,000 armed pick-up trucks, the RSF became Sudan's de facto infantry, the one force capable of controlling the streets of the capital, Khartoum, and other cities.

Cash handouts and PR polish

Through gold and officially sanctioned mercenary activity, Hemeti came to control Sudan's largest "political budget" - money that can be spent on private security, or any activity, without needing to give an account.

Run by his relatives, the Al-Junaid company had become a vast conglomerate covering investment, mining, transport, car rental, and iron and steel.

Since April, Hemeti has moved fast, politically and commercially

By the time Mr Bashir was ousted in April, Hemeti was one of the richest men in Sudan - probably with more ready cash than any other politician - and was at the centre of a web of patronage, secret security deals, and political payoffs. It is no surprise that he moved swiftly to take the place of his fallen patron.

Hemeti has moved fast, politically and commercially.

Every week he is seen in the news, handing cash to the police to get them back on the streets, to electric workers to restore services, or to teachers to have them return to the classrooms. He handed out cars to tribal chiefs.

As the UN-African Union peacekeeping force drew down in Darfur, the RSF took over their camps - until the UN put a halt to the withdrawal.

Hemeti says he has increased his RSF contingent in Yemen and has despatched a brigade to Libya to fight alongside the rogue general Khalifa Haftar, presumably on the UAE payroll, but also thereby currying favour with Egypt which also backs Gen Haftar's self-styled Libyan National Army.

Hemeti has also signed a deal with a Canadian public relations firm to polish his image and gain him political access in Russia and the US.

Hemeti and the RSF are in some ways familiar figures from the history of the Nile Valley. In the 19th Century, mercenary freebooters ranged across what are now Sudan, South Sudan, Chad, and the Central African Republic, publicly swearing allegiance to the Khedive of Egypt but also setting up and ruling their own private empires.

Yet in other ways Hemeti is a wholly 21st Century phenomenon: a military-political entrepreneur, whose paramilitary business empire transgresses territorial and legal boundaries.

Today, this semi-lettered market trader and militiaman is more powerful than any army general or civilian leader in Sudan. The political marketplace he commands is more dynamic than any fragile institutions of civilian government.

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

View the original report plus a video here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-48987901

- - -

BBC News report

Published 27 November 2017

Sudan says militia leader Musa Hilal arrested

Sudanese authorities have arrested a powerful militia leader suspected of human rights abuses in the Darfur region

Musa Hilal was detained after fighting with Sudanese forces near his hometown in North Darfur, state media reports.

He is a former ally of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and led the government-allied Janjaweed militia.

Musa Hilal is subject to UN sanctions for his suspected involvement in the Darfur conflict of the mid-2000s.

His son Habeeb was also detained in the clashes in North Darfur, Sudan's defence minister, Lt Gen Ali Mohamed Salem, said.

"They were arrested after clashes in the area but the security situation there is now stable. They will soon be brought to Khartoum," Gen Salem added.

Musa Hilal was appointed as an adviser to President Bashir in 2008 but they later fell out. His fighters have often clashed with Sudanese forces in Darfur.

The latest fighting started on Sunday when Sudanese troops were ambushed as they oversaw a handover of weapons under a disarmament campaign, the Sudan Tribune reported.

Sudan's Rapid Support Forces said they lost 10 members, including a commander.

Musa Hilal has refused to surrender the weapons held by his militia and has also declined mediation to resolve the dispute, the report adds.

The Darfur conflict erupted in 2003 when black African rebels began attacking government targets, accusing Khartoum of favouring Arabs.

In response, the mainly Arab Janjaweed militia was accused of carrying out a policy of ethnic cleansing and genocide against Darfur's black African population.

Arrest warrants against President Bashir were issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in 2009 and 2010 on charges of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity in Darfur. The conflict claimed at least 300,000 lives.

He denies the charge and has evaded arrest.

View the original report here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42141938

Sudan economy collapse if deal not reached soon

ECONOMIC concerns were among the initial sparks for the protests, which broke out in December when the government announced it would triple the price of bread. Everyone is alert and waiting. If this state of tension and uncertainty continues, the economy will collapse. Full story here below.

Sudan in economic turmoil in absence of a working government

Article by AFP Agency Staff
Thursday, 18 July 2019 - 15:32

Mall operators, waiting for the transition to civilian rule, say sales are down as much as 40%, with investors and consumers playing a waiting game

Photo: Haj Abul Fadel, a Sudanese millionaire businessman, is pictured at his shopping centre in Khartoum on July 17, 2019. Picture: AFP/EBRAHIM HAMID

Khartoum — Sales have tumbled at Haj Abul Fadel’s shopping centres in Sudan, where he and fellow business owners fear that months of political turmoil could bring on a full-scale economic collapse.

Sudan’s ruling generals and protesters inked a deal on Wednesday aimed at installing a civilian administration and breaking months of political deadlock. But the country’s fragile economy has already been hard hit by months of mass protests, which led to the military council’s toppling of long-time president Omar al-Bashir in April.

Demonstrators have continued to demand a transition to civilian rule, keeping up their campaign despite a June 3 crackdown on a protest sit-in that left dozens dead.

Abul Fadel said the unrest had slashed his overall sales by 20% to 25% — and as much as 40% for some items. “The government has yet to announce its economic policies, and as an investor, I can’t take any decisions in the current climate.” 

The millionaire businessman depends heavily on imports to stock his five Khartoum malls, but he said many firms have stopped bringing in goods due to the uncertainty.

Fellow entrepreneur Mohammad Hussein Madwi, who owns a string of agricultural and manufacturing firms, echoed his concerns. “Sales are down by at least 30% because of the lack of demand and the collapse of the Sudanese pound,” he said. “The state of political uncertainty makes me hesitant to invest or import goods, so things have pretty much come to a standstill.”

Since the last devaluation of the pound in October by the then Sudanese authorities, the currency has plunged by a further 70% against the dollar on the black market.

Inflation has meanwhile fallen from a high of 70% in December to below 50%, according to the country’s central statistics bureau.

Mother of seven Hanadi Mohammad, shopping at one of Abul Fadel’s malls in northern Khartoum, said the lack of liquidity was stopping her spending. “I don’t know how long we can live like this,” she said, walking past household appliances which, despite heavy discounts, were sitting unsold on the shelves.

‘Rock bottom’

Economic concerns were among the initial sparks for the protests, which broke out in December when the government announced it would triple the price of bread.

Months later, the army and protest leaders have agreed on the form of the country’s governing institutions, but further talks will be needed to settle other contentious issues. This means political uncertainty — and economic woes — are likely to haunt the country for some time to come.

Decades of US sanctions had already devastated Sudan’s economy before the protests broke out in December. The demonstrations quickly grew into a nationwide movement against Bashir, and the resulting unrest, along with persistent power cuts, soon hit the economy.

“Trade activity has been at rock bottom since January,” said Khaled al-Tijani, a prominent business journalist. “The economy is suffering from a lack of confidence because of the lack of a government to oversee it.”

In April, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates announced a joint $3bn package of economic aid for Sudan, including a $500m deposit in Khartoum’s central bank to strengthen the currency. The remainder is allocated for food, medicine and petrochemicals purchases.

Agriculture is a major sector and a key source of income for most of Sudan’s 40-million inhabitants. The latest crisis has hit farmers hard, particularly as the collapsing pound has stopped them importing agricultural chemicals.

On Sunday, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi sent Sudan an emergency batch of more than 50,000 tonnes of fertilisers and other agricultural supplies, according to the official Saudi Press Agency.

Faisal Mohammad, an importer of agricultural supplies, said the lack of foreign currency has hit imports hard. “Even if they are available, we’re hit by the weakness of the pound and the rising price of goods, as well as a lack of confidence among buyers, all of which negatively impacts farming operations.” 

Tijani warned that damage to such a vital sector could harm Sudan’s economy more broadly — bad news for entrepreneurs such as Abul Fadel.

“Everyone is alert and waiting,” Abul Fadel said. “If this state of tension and uncertainty continues, the economy will collapse.” For the tycoon, there is only one way forward. “A political deal between the military council and [protest leaders] is the only way out of the current economic situation.” 

SOURCE: AFP

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/africa/2019-07-18-sudan-in-economic-turmoil-in-absence-of-a-working-government/

Sudan: Darfur rebel groups say agreement signed between TMC and FFC does not represent all the FFC

Article from Middle East Monitor

July 18, 2019 at 4:52 am

Armed movements in Sudan: political declaration will not achieve peace

Photo: Sudanese people gather to celebrate the ongoing negotiations between Transitional Military Council and the Forces for Freedom and Change opposition alliance, in Khartoum, Sudan on 5 July 2019 [Mahmoud Hjaj / Anadolu Agency]

Armed movements in Sudan announced, Wednesday [17 July], their reservations about the political declaration signed between the Military Council and the Forces of Freedom and Change. The stated that the declaration does not meet the aspirations for achieving a comprehensive peace in the country.

“We do appreciate the motives of those who signed the agreement. However, these parties do not represent all the Forces of Freedom and Change. The agreement ignores important issues being discussed in Addis Ababa upon which progress has been made,” said Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North leader, Malek Akar.

“There has been an in-depth dialogue between active leaders in the Forces of Freedom and Change and the Sudan Revolutionary Front,” Akar said in a statement seen by Anadolu Agency.

He continued: “The agreement has negatively affected this dialogue and what it includes about peace does not go beyond public relations.”

“We are for the Forces of Freedom and Change, and this agreement will lead to different positions… We are studying with our comrades in the Revolutionary Front a position that we will announce today,” Akar added.

Gibril Ibrahim, head of the Justice and Equality Movement, said on Twitter: “the signing of a political agreement between the Transitional Military Council and parties from the Forces of Freedom and Change disregards the consultations taking place in Addis Ababa.”

“The Sudan Revolutionary Front is not a party to this agreement,” Ibrahim added.

There have been consultations in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa between the Sudan Revolutionary Front and the Forces of Freedom and Change to reach understandings on achieving peace in conflict areas.

Since 2003, the Darfur region has endured conflict between the Sudanese government and rebel movements, killing more than 300,000 people and displacing about 2.5 million people out of a total of 7 million people, according to the United Nations.

Since June 2011, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – north – has been waging an armed insurgency in the provinces of South Kordofan (south) and the Blue Nile (south-east), affecting one million and two hundred people, according to UN statistics.

On Wednesday morning, the Sudanese parties signed with initials the document of the Transitional Phase Agreement between the Military Council and the Forces of Freedom and Change in Khartoum after a three-day postponement and negotiations since Tuesday evening.

The agreement provides for the formation of a sovereign council of 11 members, with five military officers who would be selected by the Military Council, five civilians would be chosen by the Forces of Change, in addition to a civilian figure who will be determined by consensus between the two sides.

A military member shall preside over the Council of Sovereignty for 21 months from the date of signature of the Agreement, followed by the Presidency of a civilian member for the remaining 18 months of the transitional period (39 months).

The Military Council has been in power since the army leadership ousted Omar Al-Bashir on April 11 from the presidency (1989- 2019), under pressure from widespread protests that have started since late 2018, denouncing the deteriorating economic conditions.

SOURCE: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190718-armed-movements-in-sudan-political-declaration-will-not-achieve-peace/

Sudan: Troika (UK, US, Norway) encourage constitutional agreement to form civilian-led govt

From: British Embassy Khartoum
Published 18 July 2019
Sudan: Troika statement, July 2019

The UK, US and Norway have issued a Troika statement welcoming the agreement reached by the Transitional Military Council and Forces for Freedom and Change.

Photo: UK Government's Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London

The Troika (Norway, the UK and US) welcome the agreement reached by the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) on a political declaration that sets out the structure and broad responsibilities for a transitional government. We hope that these institutions can gain the trust and support of the Sudanese people.

The Troika also commends the efforts of the African Union, Ethiopian and Sudanese mediators in helping the parties achieve agreement. We encourage the parties to quickly conclude the parallel constitutional agreement and form the civilian-led transitional government, which the Sudanese people have courageously and peacefully demanded since December 2018.

We welcome the commitment of the parties to support an independent investigation of June 3 and other acts of violence, to negotiate an end to Sudan’s internal conflicts and to pursue economic, legal and constitutional reforms during the 39-month transition period. The Troika looks forward to engaging a civilian-led transitional government as it works to achieve the Sudanese people’s aspirations for responsive governance, peace, justice and development.

SOURCE: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sudan-troika-statement-july-2019

Explainer: What's at stake in Sudan's transition? The 2 sides still need to sign a constitutional declaration

Note from Sudan Watch Editor: To be clear, the two sides - Transitional Military Council (TMC) and Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) - still need to sign a constitutional declaration that is meant to complete the political deal. In my experience of blogging news about agreements signed in Sudan things change before the ink is dry, creating delay, after delay, after delay, going on year, after year, after year. Sigh.

Article by Reuters

Published Thursday 18 July 2019 4:35 PM

Explainer: What's at stake in Sudan's transition?

CAIRO (Reuters) - Sudan’s ruling military council and an alliance of protest and opposition groups have signed a political accord on a three-year transition towards elections.

But progress towards a final deal has been slow and marred by violence, casting doubt on protesters’ hopes for civilian rule and democracy.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

In December, protests triggered by an economic crisis swept across Sudan, demanding an end to Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year rule.

On April 11 the military toppled and arrested Bashir, announcing the formation of a transitional military council.

But protests continued, demanding the transition be civilian-led.

The military council and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) alliance began talks, which soon stalled over the make-up of a sovereign council to steer the transition.

At dawn on June 3, security forces — led according to witnesses by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — moved to clear a sit-in outside the Defence Ministry in Khartoum. Doctors linked to the opposition said 128 people were killed in the raid and ensuing violence. The government has confirmed 61 deaths.

Talks collapsed, resuming after several weeks under pressure from African-led mediators and after massive protests on June 30. Agreement on a power-sharing deal was announced on July 5.

WHO ARE THE KEY ACTORS?

The military council is formed of seven members, led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Its most prominent member, however, is his deputy General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who also leads the RSF and is widely known as Hemedti.

Both Burhan and Hemedti have close ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates due to Sudan’s participation in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

The driving force in the FFC has been the Sudanese Professionals Association, which rose to prominence coordinating the protests against Bashir. It has no leader or strict hierarchy, though top members include Mohammad Naji al-Assam and Ahmed al-Rabie.

Prominent constituents of the alliance also include the Umma Party led by former prime minister Sadiq al-Mahdi and three of Sudan’s five rebel groups.

WHAT ARE THE NEXT STEPS?

The two sides still need to sign a constitutional declaration that is meant to complete the political deal.

That would allow transitional bodies to be formed, including a sovereign council that would include five officers selected by the military council, five civilians chosen by the FFC and another civilian to be agreed by both sides.

The initial agreement also provides for a government of technocrats and an independent investigation into recent violence.

WHAT HAS HELD UP A DEAL?

The deal was meant to be signed days after its announcement, but was thrown into doubt by a demand from the military council that its members be granted immunity from prosecution.

Blanket immunity is strongly opposed by the protest movement, already concerned about how an independent investigation could be guaranteed with the military still in charge.

They continue to hold rallies to honour those killed since protests started in December and call for accountability for their deaths.

More broadly, Sudan’s security forces see themselves as the country’s natural rulers and want to protect their sprawling economic interests.

“Their natural tendency is to surrender nothing and to maintain ...the last word in all matters of the state – which was the situation under Bashir essentially,” said Magdi El Gizouli, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute.

“...Upturning this arrangement is a formidable task.”

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

Sudan has a recent history of civil conflicts including in the western region of Darfur and South Kordofan and Blue Nile in the south. These could flare again if political turmoil continues.

Suffering for Sudanese civilians already subjected to a severe economic crisis could also intensify. Of a population of 44 million, more than 5 million people are in need of assistance and nearly 2 million displaced, according to the United Nations.

WHAT ARE THE STAKES INTERNATIONALLY?

Sudan sits in a volatile region in northeast Africa. Instability could have an impact on war-torn South Sudan, where a fragile peace deal was signed last September, and on Libya to the north, where fighting has recently escalated.

Wealthy Gulf states have an interest in Sudan because of its agricultural potential and its Red Sea ports. The RSF is contributing troops to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

European powers and Egypt are concerned about potential northward flows of migrants from Sudan, which is on one of the transit routes towards the Mediterranean.

Reporting by Aidan Lewis, Khalid Abdelaziz and Nadine Awadalla; Writing by Aidan Lewis; editing by John Stonestreet

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

SOURCE: https://in.reuters.com/article/sudan-politics-idINKCN1UD27

Sudan opposition in disagreement with the way power-sharing deal has been done and the content

Article from africanews.com

By AFP Thursday, 18 July 2019 

Sudan opposition skeptical about power-sharing deal

“We are not against the agreement in its sense, but we are in disagreement with the way it has been done and the content.”

Sudan’s opposition has raised skepticism about the recently signed power sharing deal.

After weeks of protests following the overthrow of long serving leader, Omar al-Bashir, military rulers finally inked the long-awaited deal.

But now, the opposition is raising some questions.

“Still in spite or irrespective of what had happened this morning, we are still open-minded to sit with leaders of FFC (Forces of Freedom and Change) to bring the agreement, whatever agreement they signed this morning back to the drawing table, to develop and improve it and make it acceptable to all Sudanese”, said Gibril Ibrahim, chairperson of Justice and Equality Movement.

Gibril Ibrahim, who is also leader of the Sudanese Revolutionary Front, detailed some demands.

“We are not against the agreement in its sense, the purpose, but we are in disagreement with the way it has been done and the content. We were here to develop the content, to make sure that the issues that we consider instrumental, such as issues of peace, marginalization, issues of the vulnerable people in Sudan. FFC (Forces of Freedom and Change) has not yet done so.

The agreement reached on Wednesday between the military and the protesters also provides for the establishment of a “sovereign council”.

It’s a body responsible for managing the transition for a little over three years, first led by the military and then by civilians.

SOURCE AFP 

https://www.africanews.com/2019/07/18/sudan-opposition-skeptical-about-power-sharing-deal/

Sudan: TMC transitional deal casts spotlight on role of Hemeti’s RSF militia fighters

Article from Bloomberg.com

By: Mohammed Alamin and Okech Francis

Published: 18 July 2019, 05:00 BST Updated on 18 July 2019, 15:55 BST

Devils on Horseback Leader Holds Fate of Sudan in His Hands

- Transitional deal casts spotlight on role of Hamdan’s fighters

- Notorious militia is dominant force after Bashir’s overthrow

Photo: Mohamed Hamdan on July 17. Photographer: Ebrahim Hamid/AFP via Getty Images

A one-time camel trader turned leader of a Sudanese militia known as the “devils on horseback” now holds the fate of Africa’s third-largest nation in his hands.

Known popularly as Hemeti, Mohamed Hamdan dominates the military council that overthrew President Omar al-Bashir in April. He also commands the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group accused of killing more than 100 protesters in June in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum. Swaggering and unaccountable, his fighters have become the most tangible obstacle to Sudan’s escape from three decades of dictatorship.

“All roads forward in Sudan now run into the Hemeti problem,” said Alan Boswell, an analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. “Over time, his power will need to be reined in, yet any action against him at the moment risks civil war.”

The stakes go beyond Sudan, which has been rocked by coups, insurgencies and mass protests since independence in 1956. The battle for its future after the fall of Bashir -- an Islamist general and international pariah accused of war crimes -- has become another battleground for the biggest power rivalries in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been drawn in, looking to retain influence in the Red Sea nation as their tussles with Iran and Turkey for regional supremacy spread to the Horn of Africa.

The oil-rich Gulf nations in April pledged a combined $3 billion in aid to Sudan, which has been ravaged by decades of economic mismanagement that helped ignite the nationwide unrest in December. The promise of cash has given breathing space to the country’s new rulers -- mainly Bashir’s old guard -- and fueled opposition doubts there’ll be a genuine democratic transition as the elite seeks to defend its privileges.

Still, negotiations between the council and the opposition group that led the protests may have yielded a breakthrough. A deal signed Wednesday would see civilian and military representatives form an 11-seat sovereign council with executive responsibilities, and elections would be held after three years.

Photo: Tires burn during protests in Khartoum on June 3. Photographer: Ashraf Shazly/AFP via Getty Images

While the global outcry over the Khartoum massacre gave Sudan’s military rulers little choice but to reach a deal, they’ll probably seek to stall its enactment, according to Salah Aldoma, a professor of international relations at Omdurman Islamic University in Khartoum’s twin city. Hemeti’s denials of responsibility for the Khartoum attack have veered from blaming infiltrators in uniform, to vowing to hang any of his fighters who participated.

Feared Fighters

Rights groups including Amnesty International say Hemeti’s forces must withdraw from the city. On the streets, one can sense a palpable fear of his fighters, who regularly harass youths deemed sympathetic to the protests. Many residents make sure they’re home by nightfall to avoid any run-ins with the feared security services.

The militia earlier this week said in a statement it would be “gradually withdrawn from Khartoum in accordance with the security situation,” the state-run SUNA news agency reported.

Photo: Mohamed Hamdan surrounded by Rapid Support Forces in Qarri on June 15. Photographer: Ashraf Shazly/AFP via Getty Images

Hemeti’s vertiginous rise saw him deploy his fighters alongside Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The RSF, a reconstituted version of the brutal counter-insurgency group known as the janjaweed he helped organize in the western region of Darfur, is now regarded as Sudan’s most powerful military force.

While Sudan’s Gulf backers hope the nation follows the Egyptian path of military rule after the Arab Spring, they’re missing a key difference, said Boswell: “Sudan lacks a cohesive military.”

Ceding Influence

The army -- and the military council -- are officially led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, a lieutenant-general who helped coordinate Sudan’s contribution to the Yemen campaign. Burhan, though, has ceded influence in public to Hemeti, who regularly addresses rallies aired on state TV.

Hemeti’s alleged role in the violence would complicate any designs he might have on the presidency. Much of Sudan’s remaining elite are desperate to improve relations with the U.S., which lifted a two-decade-old sanctions regime in 2017.

“Hemeti is looking for some guarantees so he can make a safe exit,” said Aldoma. “His use was only as a military assistant to oust Bashir.”

The Darfuri warlord is also likely to face resistance from the elites from the Nile Valley hundreds of miles to the east who’ve traditionally led the country.

While the RSF has helped them tame the protest movement and sideline some of Bashir’s hard-line Islamist supporters, the rest of Sudan’s military council could be ready to jettison him at a later date, according to Asiel Alamin, a prominent activist.

But in the short-term, any move to check Hemeti’s power risks splitting the council, said Harry Verhoeven, author of ‘Water, Civilisation and Power in Sudan.’

“It’s a dangerous proposition and very few actors in the army, RSF or other security forces have a realistic vision of political order beyond the next couple of weeks,” he said.

(Update with statement from RSF in second paragraph under Feared Fighters subheadline.)

SOURCE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/devils-on-horseback-leader-holds-fate-of-sudan-in-his-hands

Timeline and Profile of Sudan (BBC)

SUDAN, once the largest and one of the most geographically diverse states in Africa, split into two countries in July 2011 after the people of the south voted for independence.

The government of Sudan gave its blessing to an independent South Sudan, where the mainly Christian and Animist people had for decades been struggling against rule by the Arab Muslim north.

However, various outstanding issues - especially the question of shared oil revenues and border demarcation - have continued to create tensions between the two successor states.

Sudan has long been beset by conflict. Two rounds of north-south civil war cost the lives of 1.5 million people, and a continuing conflict in the western region of Darfur has driven two million people from their homes and killed more than 200,000.

Photo: Much of Sudan is arid (BBC caption/GETTY IMAGES)

To read more, click here: 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14094995

Read more profiles by BBC Monitoring

Uganda: Sudan's situation is dangerous - Museveni

UGANDA'S President Museveni has described the current fragile political situation in Sudan as "dangerous" because it is a deterrent to business.  

Mr Museveni made the remarks on Friday, 05 July while meeting the leader of Sudan's Transitional Military Council, Gen Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, on his visit to Uganda. 

"The type of conflict and agitation that has been experienced in the Sudan is dangerous because it scares away business and affects the livelihood of the people," he said after meeting the Sudan's military leader at State Lodge in Mbale.

Full story: Daily Monitor Uganda, Sun 07 Jul 2019 by Risdel Kasasira, Kampala

https://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Sudan-s-situation-dangerous-Museveni/688334-5185612-n48xf0/index.html

US backs Sudan transition deal fearing state collapse

SUDAN's sovereign council of soldiers and civilians will lead Sudan for 3 years. Sudan situation is still fragile, there are still spoilers out there. The fact that Hemeti remains in power is problematic. Money from Saudi Arabia that used to go to the RSF would now back the transition. RSF forces have fought as ground troops for the Saudi-led coalition in their war against the Houthis in Yemen. US backs Sudan transition deal for fear of state collapse. Full story here below.

From The Financial Times

By ADRIENNE KLASA in London 

Published: Thursday 11 July 2019 

Title: Sovereign council of soldiers and civilians will lead country for 3 years

Photo: Sudan's Rapid Support Forces are feared by demonstrators © AP

The US has thrown its weight behind the power-sharing deal struck between Sudan’s military leaders and civilian groups, fearing that the alternative was a descent into state failure and violence.

“The situation is still fragile; there are still spoilers out there,” Tibor Nagy, US assistant secretary of state for African affairs, said in London. The deal was “absolutely a step forward” he added. 

“Out of all the scenarios out there some of the outcomes could have been extremely negative. We could have had the Somalia [or] Libya model, which is the absolute last thing that either Egypt or Ethiopia needed,” he added.

Mr Nagy had just returned from Sudan, where he met the political and military factions that unseated Omar al-Bashir in April after months of protest. Mr Bashir had been in power for three decades. Sudanese officials and activists credit US pressure, along with Gulf countries and regional negotiators, with bringing the two sides to an agreement.

While the US supported the political transition, Mr Nagy said it would not become involved in the details of any agreement between the ruling transitional military council and civilian groups. “Our goal is to achieve this transition that is acceptable to the Sudanese people, [but] it’s not for us to get into the sausage making,” he said.

The power-sharing deal, which is expected to be signed this week, grants five of the 11 seats on a “sovereign council” to civilians. Another five seats will go to the military. The final seat will go to a consensus appointment. The council, which will rule Sudan during a three-year transition period, will be led at first by a military representative before switching to a civilian.

The deal is a muted victory for protesters who had been campaigning for an immediate transition to democratic civilian rule.

Their hopes though of a bloodless revolution were shattered when Rapid Support Force (RSF) troops raided encampments and hospitals on the night of June 3, killing more than 100 people, according to protesters.

The US has called for an independent investigation into the killings but is separating that from any political settlement. That approach, however, has been criticised because the commander of the RSF, Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan, known as Hemeti, remains an important figure in the ruling military council.

“The fact that Hemeti remains in power is problematic. As commander of the RSF for all these years he’s implicated in serious crimes, not only in Khartoum but in Darfur” and elsewhere in the country, says Jehanne Henry, associate director in the Africa division of Human Rights Watch. “Until there’s accountability, the peace will not hold.”

Mr Nagy said the crackdown was “a separate issue. It’s very important for us not to get into [accusing] this person, that person. We have to focus on the outcome because that’s the most important thing for Sudan”.

Gulf allies, who have provided funding and support to Lt Gen Hamdan and the RSF, have also backed the deal, Mr Nagy said, while money from Saudi Arabia that used to go to the RSF would now back the transition. RSF forces have fought as ground troops for the Saudi-led coalition in their war against the Houthis in Yemen.

But Mr Nagy admitted the deal could still fall apart. He said there were fears that supporters of Mr Bashir could try to restore the old regime to power or that an unstable Sudan could allow radical groups to flourish. The return of the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni Islamist organisation with links across the Arab world that briefly held power in Egypt is 2012, was “definitely is a concern”, he said.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2019. All rights reserved.

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