Showing posts with label Hemedti. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hemedti. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Sudan: In Darfur Hemeti has victims by the millions

In Darfur Sudan Hemeti has victims by the millions - He's positioning to be paramilitary ruler of Darfur 
Note from Sudan Watch Editor: Who knows what the Canadian lobbying firm Dickens and Madson is doing to earn the $6 million it is being paid by Messrs Hemeti and al-Burhan? When I see news about Hemeti I read it carefully to check that he is not being turned into a hero after the atrocities he was responsible for in Darfur and for the 03 June 2019 massacre of innocent civilian protestors in Khartoum. So much grief.

The following article by AP has an interesting title.  People who've paid close attention to Sudan and South Sudan over the past 16+ years know Hemeti is a wicked monster.  He dropped out of primary school to become a camel herder.  Can he read and write?  After he initialled the constitutional declaration, he was photographed showing off its gold emblazoned folder.  In this photo he is holding it upside down.  Idiot.
Article by Associated Press
Written by JOSEPH KRAUSS and SAMY MAGDY 
Dated Tuesday, 06 August 2019 6:59 am
A new strongman in Sudan? Experts aren't so sure
CAIRO — When Sudan's protest leaders signed a preliminary power-sharing agreement with the ruling military council in early July, they had no choice but to shake hands with the man many of them accuse of ordering a massacre just a month earlier.

Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, a paramilitary commander from Darfur who is widely known as Hemedti, has emerged as Sudan's main power broker in the months since the military overthrew President Omar al-Bashir.

He boasts tens of thousands of paramilitary forces who have spent years battling insurgents across Sudan as well as rebels in Yemen on behalf of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Experts say he can draw on his family's vast livestock and gold mining operations in Darfur, as well as funding from Gulf Arab countries, to buy the support of tribal leaders and other local elites. That could be the recipe for a new patronage system like the one that kept al-Bashir in power for three decades.

But he also faces considerable headwinds: from the pro-democracy movement that has brought tens of thousands into the streets; from rival tribes and rebel groups that have battled his forces; and from elites in Khartoum, who view the onetime camel trader from distant Darfur as an outsider.

This week the protesters and the military announced a new breakthrough in their efforts to form a joint government that would pave the way to civilian rule. But the democratic transition remains fragile, and Hemedti's rise — along with the growing resistance to it — could plunge the country into further chaos.

A NEW PATRON
Hemedti leads the Rapid Support Forces, which grew out of the feared Janjaweed militias mobilized to put down a rebellion in Darfur in the early 2000s. The International Criminal Court, which charged al-Bashir and other top officials with genocide and crimes against humanity, has not brought charges against Hemedti. But rights groups say his forces burned villages and raped and killed civilians during a series of counterinsurgency campaigns over the last decade.

Spokesmen for the military and the RSF did not respond to multiple requests for comment on Hemedti's past actions or present ambitions.

His forces have won a number of military victories against both rebels and rival Arab tribes, allowing his family to expand its livestock business and branch into the mining of gold, which emerged as Sudan's biggest export after the secession of oil-rich South Sudan in 2011. He can also count on financial aid from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have contracted his forces to battle Iran-aligned rebels in Yemen.

There are few if any publicly available figures for the wealth at the disposal of Hemedti and the RSF. But in recent months he has boasted of depositing $1 billion in the Central Bank and paying the salaries of teachers and police.

"There are all the signs of someone who is trying to be the next military dictator of Sudan," said Suliman Baldo, a senior researcher with the Enough Project. But he doubts Hemedti can sustain a patronage system like the one that kept al-Bashir in power.

"Sudan is totally exhausted, the national economy is in total collapse because of all of this, and there is no way Hemedti can sustain a national economy," Baldo said.

DISTRUST IN KHARTOUM
In the months since al-Bashir's ouster, Hemedti has worked out of an office in the presidential residence, receiving foreign envoys and other officials. But in the capital he is still seen as an outsider.

"The Khartoum elites are unanimous that Hemedti cannot be the ruler of Sudan, because as an uneducated Darfurian he is from the wrong class and the wrong place, and lacks the formal qualifications of education or staff college," said Alex de Waal, a Sudan expert at Tufts University.

The protesters blame the RSF for the clearing of their main sit-in outside the military headquarters in Khartoum on June 3, when security forces killed scores of people. Sudanese prosecutors have charged eight RSF officers, including a major general, with crimes against humanity but say the ruling generals did not order the crackdown.

Some protest leaders have called for the RSF to be disbanded, and both the Sudanese Professionals' Association, which spearheaded the protests against al-Bashir, and the Communist Party have said Hemedti should be tried for alleged crimes in Darfur.

In the end, however, under international pressure , the protesters returned to talks with the military over a power-sharing deal. The two sides signed a preliminary document last month. While Hemedti is technically the deputy head of the military council, it was he who attended the signing ceremony.

The follow-up constitutional document signed Sunday would place the RSF under the command of the military. The protesters said it would also allow for the prosecution of military or civilian leaders if there is evidence of involvement in violence against protesters. Hemedti hailed the deal as a "win-win."

RESISTANCE IN THE PROVINCES
Another route to power for Hemedti could run through the provinces, where neglect and marginalization by the central government have spawned rebellions going back decades.

"The most intriguing possibility today is that Hemedti will cash in on his credentials as a man of the far periphery, and build a support base that includes making agreements with the armed groups," de Waal said. He says Hemedti knows the price of loyalty from personal experience, and that the RSF can more readily integrate the armed groups.

An activist from Hemedti's Rizeigat tribe confirmed that he has paid "lots of money to tribal leaders" and provided jobs and other services to buy their loyalty.

"The opposition against him is silent because they fear the crackdown," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.

Hemedti has also met with the leaders of various rebel groups — including those he has fought against — in Chad, South Sudan and the United Arab Emirates. But experts say he may still have too many enemies from his past campaigns.

Jerome Tubiana, another Sudan researcher, said Hemedti has "already failed to secure a strong base in the center, and his bet to represent all the peripheries, or even the whole Darfur, will be uneasy given his violent past."

Baldo is also skeptical.
"In Darfur, he has victims by the millions and I don't think they will rally behind him," he said.


Related News
Eid in Sudan: 9 killed, several injured after RSF launched assault on Shangal Toubaya, North Darfur
Sudan Watch - Sunday, 11 August 2019

Film: MEET THE JANJAWEED - Hemedti is positioning himself as paramilitary ruler of Darfur (Alex de Waal)
Sudan Watch - Tuesday, 13 August 2019

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Sudan: Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan to be appointed 1st President of Sovereign Council, Hemedti Deputy

Article from Aawsat.com
By Sawsan Abu Hussein and Ahmed Younes - Cairo, Khartoum
Dated Saturday, 10 August, 2019 - 08:00
Sudan: Burhan to Be Appointed 1st President of Sovereign Council, Hemedti Deputy

A senior Sudanese military commander announced on Friday that Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, who currently presides over Sudan’s Transitional Military Council (TMC), would be appointed the head of the future Sovereign Council.

“The Sovereign Council will chair the first transitional period under the leadership of Abdel Fattah Burhan, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo will be his deputy,” Gen. Salah Abdelkhalig, a TMC member, told Sputnik news agency.

The TMC and the forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change agreed on Saturday on a constitutional declaration to govern the transitional period following months of political instability.

The declaration stipulated that the presidency of the Transitional Sovereign Council shall be assumed by the military for the first period of 21 months. It shall be composed of five representatives of the military and five representatives of the civil community, in addition to one other member who will be appointed by a collective vote.

The civilian-picked prime minister will appoint a cabinet where the defense and home ministry seats have been reserved by the military.

Abdelkhalig stressed that the constitutional agreement was “one of the most important strategic achievements, as it has saved the country from the civil war disaster.”

Meanwhile, Cairo is expected to witness important talks between representatives of the Sudanese Revolutionary Front and the coalition of Forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change, to negotiate controversial issues between the two parties related to achieving peace and ending war with the armed movements.

The armed movements - operating under the Revolutionary Front – expressed reservations over the constitutional document signed with the TMC, noting that it failed to include the “peace paper” that was approved in Addis Ababa.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Sudan's TMC Hemeti, AFC FFC, SPLM/A North (Al-Helou), Sudan Call, attend meetings in Juba S. Sudan

Article from Radio Tamazuj.org
Date: Saturday, 27 July 2019 - Juba, South Sudan

Sudan's deputy head of military council visits Juba
Photo: General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo speaking to reporters in Juba on Saturday, 27 July, 2019 (Radio Tamazuj)

The deputy head of Sudan's ruling military council arrived Saturday [27 July] in Juba, where he is to meet President Salva Kiir and Sudan rebels.

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known by his nickname Hemeti, is on his first trip to South Sudan since his appointment as deputy head of Sudan's military council following the April ouster of Omar al-Bashir after months of protests.

His visit comes after members of Sudan's opposition coalition reached what they call a "political deal" in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Hemeti, who also commands a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces, told reporters that he visited Juba to meet with President Kiir and Sudanese rebel groups.

“We have come to Juba to brief the president on the situation in Sudan. Also, we want to meet with our brother Abdel-Aziz al-Hilu and leaders of armed movements,” Hemeti said.

“I hope that we will find solutions as soon as possible,” he added.

Hemeti was a close ally of Omar al-Bashir, but as anti-government protests escalated in December 2018, his loyalty soon wavered.

Hemeti is the one at the forefront of peace talks with opposition groups.

- - -

Copy of 27 July 2019 by Eric Reeves
(yellow highlighting is his)
- - -

Article from Middle East Monitor.com
Date: 28 June 2019 at 4:11 pm
Sudan’s Alliance for Freedom and Change to visits Juba

The Sudanese opposition alliance Sudan Call announced yesterday [27 June] that a delegation from the Alliance for Freedom and Change will travel to South Sudan to meet with the head of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Abdel Aziz Al-Helou tomorrow.

A spokesman for Sudan Call Khaled Bahr told the Anadolu Agency that the Alliance for Freedom and Change met to arrange the delegation’s visit to Juba.

He pointed out that Sudan Call also met to select its representatives to the delegation that will travel to Juba.

Since June 2011, SPLM has been fighting the Sudanese government in the states of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile.

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Sudan: Janjaweed leader Musa Hilal, master of Mohamed Hamdam “Hemeti” Dagolo during their brutal campaign in Darfur should be tried by ICC


Note from Sudan Watch Editor: When I started reading the below copied news report published at BBC News online on 20 July, I marvelled at its author. The report is so well written and researched I thought the BBC had hired an incredible new journalist. At the end of the report I saw the author’s name: Alex de Waal. I should have guessed, nobody can write about Sudan like Alex can. The report is a must-read. 

Note, beneath Alex's report I have copied and pasted a copy of a BBC news report dated 2017 showing that Musa Hilal and his son were arrested. I am surprised not more has been made of that piece of news. Where is Mr Hilal and his son now, I wonder. The report suggests he was taken to Khartoum. Is he hidden behind the scenes or in the same prison as ex-President Omar Al-Bashir? Musa Hilal was elected into the Sudanese government. Click on the tags for Musa Hilal at this blog, or type in his name in the search box here at Sudan Watch to read reports from the archive. Musa Hilal, along with Hemeti, ought to be put on trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) to answer for their war crimes and crimes against humanity. In my view, they are so ruthless and lacking in fear, remorse and compassion, I believe they are psychopaths who have gotten away with many terrible murders.

Note the following excerpt from Rebecca Hamilton's 3 Dec 2009 article entitled The Monster of Darfur:
"As Hilal explains it, Arabs were forced to flee their villages long before any “zurga” (literally “black,” a derogatory term for non-Arabs). But, he added scathingly, “[W]e would never go to a [displaced persons] camp and be seen as beggars." To solve the crisis in Darfur, Arabs have to be in charge, he continued. "We have the majority in the field. We have the majority of the livestock. There can be no solution without us”. He sat back in his chair and lit a cigarette. “I am not the leader of the Janjaweed. I am the leader of all the Arab tribes in Darfur,” Hilal said, his relaxed confidence returning." [Read more here: https://newrepublic.com/article/71627/the-monster-darfur]

BBC News report
By Alex de Waal
Published 20 July 2019
Sudan crisis: The ruthless mercenaries who run the country for gold
Photo: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been accused of widespread abuses in Sudan, including the 3 June massacre in which more than 120 people were reportedly killed, with many of the dead dumped in the River Nile Sudan expert Alex de Wall charts their rise. (Photo credit AFP)

The RSF are now the real ruling power in Sudan. They are a new kind of regime: a hybrid of ethnic militia and business enterprise, a transnational mercenary force that has captured a state.

Their commander is General Mohamed Hamdan "Hemeti" Dagolo, and he and his fighters have come a long way since their early days as a rag-tag Arab militia widely denigrated as the "Janjaweed".

The RSF was formally established by decree of then-President Omar al-Bashir in 2013. But their core of 5,000 militiamen had been armed and active long before then.

Their story begins in 2003, when Mr Bashir's government mobilised Arab herders to fight against black African insurgents in Darfur.

'Meet the Janjaweed'

The core of the Janjaweed were camel-herding nomads from the Mahamid and Mahariya branches of the Rizeigat ethnic group of northern Darfur and adjoining areas of Chad - they ranged across the desert edge long before the border was drawn.

During the 2003-2005 Darfur war and massacres, the most infamous Janjaweed leader was Musa Hilal, chief of the Mahamid.
Human rights groups accuse Musa Hilal of leading a brutal campaign in Darfur  Image copyright AFP

As these fighters proved their bloody efficacy, Mr Bashir formalised them into a paramilitary force called the Border Intelligence Units.

One brigade, active in southern Darfur, included a particularly dynamic young fighter, Mohamed Dagolo, known as "Hemeti" because of his baby-faced looks - Hemeti being a mother's endearing term for "Little Mohamed".

A school dropout turned small-time trader, he was a member of the Mahariya clan of the Rizeigat. Some say that his grandfather was a junior chief when they resided in Chad.

A crucial interlude in Hemeti's career occurred in 2007, when his troops became discontented over the government's failure to pay them.

They felt they had been exploited - sent to the frontline, blamed for atrocities, and then abandoned.

Hemeti and his fighters mutinied, promising to fight Khartoum "until judgement day", and tried to cut a deal with the Darfur rebels.

A documentary shot during this time, called Meet the Janjaweed, shows him recruiting volunteers from Darfur's black African Fur ethnic group into his army, to fight alongside his Arabs, their former enemies.

Although Hemeti's commanders are all from his own Mahariya clan, he has been ready to enlist men of all ethnic groups. On one recent occasion the RSF absorbed a breakaway faction of the rebel Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) - led by Mohamedein Ismail "Orgajor", an ethnic Zaghawa - another Darfur community which had been linked to the rebels.

Consolidating power

Hemeti went back to Khartoum when he was offered a sweet deal: back pay for his troops, ranks for his officers (he became a brigadier general - to the chagrin of army officers who had gone to staff college and climbed the ranks), and a handsome cash payment.

His troops were put under the command of the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), at that time organising a proxy war with Chad.
Some of Hemeti's fighters, serving under the banner of the Chadian opposition, fought their way as far as the Chadian capital, N'Djamena, in 2008.

Meanwhile, Hemeti fell out with his former master, Hilal - their feud was to be a feature of Darfur for 10 years. Hilal was a serial mutineer, and Mr Bashir's generals found Hemeti more dependable.

In 2013, a new paramilitary force was formed under Hemeti and called the RSF.

The army chief of staff did not like it - he wanted the money to go to strengthening the regular forces - and Mr Bashir was worried about putting too much power in the hands of NISS, having just fired its director for allegedly conspiring against him.

So the RSF was made answerable to Mr Bashir himself - the president gave Hemeti the nickname "Himayti", meaning "My Protector".

Training camps were set up near the capital, Khartoum. Hundreds of Land Cruiser pick-up trucks were imported and fitted out with machine guns.

RSF troops fought against rebels in South Kordofan - they were undisciplined and did not do well - and against rebels in Darfur, where they did better.

Gold rush

Hemeti's rivalry with Hilal intensified when gold was discovered at Jebel Amir in North Darfur state in 2012.

Coming at just the moment when Sudan was facing an economic crisis because South Sudan had broken away, taking with it 75% of the country's oil, this seemed like a godsend.
Sudan is one of Africa’s biggest gold producers

But it was more of a curse. Tens of thousands of young men flocked to a remote corner of Darfur in a latter-day gold rush to try their luck in shallow mines with rudimentary equipment.

Some struck gold and became rich, others were crushed in collapsing shafts or poisoned by the mercury and arsenic used to process the nuggets

Hilal's militiamen forcibly took over the area, killing more than 800 people from the local Beni Hussein ethnic group, and began to get rich by mining and selling the gold.

Some gold was sold to the government, which paid above the market price in Sudanese money because it was so desperate to get its hands on gold that it could sell on in Dubai for hard currency.

Meanwhile some gold was smuggled across the border to Chad, where it was profitably exchanged in a racket involving buying stolen vehicles and smuggling them back into Sudan.
Hemeti has loyal supporters outside the capital

In the desert markets of Tibesti in northern Chad, a 1.5kg (3.3lb) of unwrought gold was bartered for a 2015 model Land Cruiser, probably stolen from an aid agency in Darfur, which was then driven back to Darfur, fitted out with hand-painted licence plates and resold.

By 2017, gold sales accounted for 40% of Sudan's exports. And Hemeti was keen to control them.

He already owned some mines and had set up a trading company known as al-Junaid. But when Hilal challenged Mr Bashir one more time, denying the government access to Jebel Amir's mines, Hemeti's RSF went on the counter-attack.

In November 2017, his forces arrested Hilal [ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42141938 ], and the RSF took over Sudan's most lucrative gold mines.

Regional muscle

Hemeti overnight became the country's biggest gold trader and - by controlling the border with Chad and Libya - its biggest border guard. Hilal remains in prison.

Under the Khartoum Process, the European Union funded the Sudanese government to control migration across the Sahara to Libya.

Although the EU consistently denies it, many Sudanese believe that this gave license to the RSF to police the border, extracting bribes, levies and ransoms - and doing its share of trafficking too.
RSF fighters have fought for Yemen’s government in the civil war which is devastating the country

Dubai is the destination for almost all of Sudan's gold, official or smuggled. But Hemeti's contacts with the UAE soon became more than just commercial.

In 2015, the Sudanese government agreed to send a battalion of regular forces to serve with the Saudi-Emirati coalition forces in Yemen - its commander was Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, now chair of the ruling Transitional Military Council.

But a few months later, the UAE struck a parallel deal with Hemeti to send a much larger force of RSF fighters, for combat in south Yemen and along the Tahama plain - which includes the port city of Hudaydah, the scene of fierce fighting last year.

Hemeti also provided units to help guard the Saudi Arabian border with Yemen.

By this time, the RSF's strength had grown tenfold. Its command structure didn't change: all are Darfurian Arabs, its generals sharing the Dagolo name.

With 70,000 men and more than 10,000 armed pick-up trucks, the RSF became Sudan's de facto infantry, the one force capable of controlling the streets of the capital, Khartoum, and other cities.

Cash handouts and PR polish

Through gold and officially sanctioned mercenary activity, Hemeti came to control Sudan's largest "political budget" - money that can be spent on private security, or any activity, without needing to give an account.

Run by his relatives, the Al-Junaid company had become a vast conglomerate covering investment, mining, transport, car rental, and iron and steel.

Since April, Hemeti has moved fast, politically and commercially

By the time Mr Bashir was ousted in April, Hemeti was one of the richest men in Sudan - probably with more ready cash than any other politician - and was at the centre of a web of patronage, secret security deals, and political payoffs. It is no surprise that he moved swiftly to take the place of his fallen patron.

Hemeti has moved fast, politically and commercially.

Every week he is seen in the news, handing cash to the police to get them back on the streets, to electric workers to restore services, or to teachers to have them return to the classrooms. He handed out cars to tribal chiefs.

As the UN-African Union peacekeeping force drew down in Darfur, the RSF took over their camps - until the UN put a halt to the withdrawal.

Hemeti says he has increased his RSF contingent in Yemen and has despatched a brigade to Libya to fight alongside the rogue general Khalifa Haftar, presumably on the UAE payroll, but also thereby currying favour with Egypt which also backs Gen Haftar's self-styled Libyan National Army.

Hemeti has also signed a deal with a Canadian public relations firm to polish his image and gain him political access in Russia and the US.

Hemeti and the RSF are in some ways familiar figures from the history of the Nile Valley. In the 19th Century, mercenary freebooters ranged across what are now Sudan, South Sudan, Chad, and the Central African Republic, publicly swearing allegiance to the Khedive of Egypt but also setting up and ruling their own private empires.

Yet in other ways Hemeti is a wholly 21st Century phenomenon: a military-political entrepreneur, whose paramilitary business empire transgresses territorial and legal boundaries.

Today, this semi-lettered market trader and militiaman is more powerful than any army general or civilian leader in Sudan. The political marketplace he commands is more dynamic than any fragile institutions of civilian government.

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
View the original report plus a video here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-48987901
- - -

BBC News report
Published 27 November 2017
Sudan says militia leader Musa Hilal arrested

Sudanese authorities have arrested a powerful militia leader suspected of human rights abuses in the Darfur region

Musa Hilal was detained after fighting with Sudanese forces near his hometown in North Darfur, state media reports.

He is a former ally of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and led the government-allied Janjaweed militia.

Musa Hilal is subject to UN sanctions for his suspected involvement in the Darfur conflict of the mid-2000s.

His son Habeeb was also detained in the clashes in North Darfur, Sudan's defence minister, Lt Gen Ali Mohamed Salem, said.

"They were arrested after clashes in the area but the security situation there is now stable. They will soon be brought to Khartoum," Gen Salem added.

Musa Hilal was appointed as an adviser to President Bashir in 2008 but they later fell out. His fighters have often clashed with Sudanese forces in Darfur.

The latest fighting started on Sunday when Sudanese troops were ambushed as they oversaw a handover of weapons under a disarmament campaign, the Sudan Tribune reported.

Sudan's Rapid Support Forces said they lost 10 members, including a commander.

Musa Hilal has refused to surrender the weapons held by his militia and has also declined mediation to resolve the dispute, the report adds.

The Darfur conflict erupted in 2003 when black African rebels began attacking government targets, accusing Khartoum of favouring Arabs.

In response, the mainly Arab Janjaweed militia was accused of carrying out a policy of ethnic cleansing and genocide against Darfur's black African population.

Arrest warrants against President Bashir were issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in 2009 and 2010 on charges of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity in Darfur. The conflict claimed at least 300,000 lives.

He denies the charge and has evaded arrest.

View the original report here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42141938

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Explainer: What's at stake in Sudan's transition? The 2 sides still need to sign a constitutional declaration

Note from Sudan Watch Editor: To be clear, the two sides - Transitional Military Council (TMC) and Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) - still need to sign a constitutional declaration that is meant to complete the political deal. In my experience of blogging news about agreements signed in Sudan things change before the ink is dry, creating delay, after delay, after delay, going on year, after year, after year. Sigh.

Article by Reuters
Published Thursday 18 July 2019 4:35 PM
Explainer: What's at stake in Sudan's transition?

CAIRO (Reuters) - Sudan’s ruling military council and an alliance of protest and opposition groups have signed a political accord on a three-year transition towards elections.

But progress towards a final deal has been slow and marred by violence, casting doubt on protesters’ hopes for civilian rule and democracy.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

In December, protests triggered by an economic crisis swept across Sudan, demanding an end to Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year rule.

On April 11 the military toppled and arrested Bashir, announcing the formation of a transitional military council.

But protests continued, demanding the transition be civilian-led.

The military council and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) alliance began talks, which soon stalled over the make-up of a sovereign council to steer the transition.

At dawn on June 3, security forces — led according to witnesses by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — moved to clear a sit-in outside the Defence Ministry in Khartoum. Doctors linked to the opposition said 128 people were killed in the raid and ensuing violence. The government has confirmed 61 deaths.

Talks collapsed, resuming after several weeks under pressure from African-led mediators and after massive protests on June 30. Agreement on a power-sharing deal was announced on July 5.

WHO ARE THE KEY ACTORS?

The military council is formed of seven members, led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Its most prominent member, however, is his deputy General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who also leads the RSF and is widely known as Hemedti.

Both Burhan and Hemedti have close ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates due to Sudan’s participation in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

The driving force in the FFC has been the Sudanese Professionals Association, which rose to prominence coordinating the protests against Bashir. It has no leader or strict hierarchy, though top members include Mohammad Naji al-Assam and Ahmed al-Rabie.

Prominent constituents of the alliance also include the Umma Party led by former prime minister Sadiq al-Mahdi and three of Sudan’s five rebel groups.

WHAT ARE THE NEXT STEPS?

The two sides still need to sign a constitutional declaration that is meant to complete the political deal.

That would allow transitional bodies to be formed, including a sovereign council that would include five officers selected by the military council, five civilians chosen by the FFC and another civilian to be agreed by both sides.

The initial agreement also provides for a government of technocrats and an independent investigation into recent violence.

WHAT HAS HELD UP A DEAL?

The deal was meant to be signed days after its announcement, but was thrown into doubt by a demand from the military council that its members be granted immunity from prosecution.

Blanket immunity is strongly opposed by the protest movement, already concerned about how an independent investigation could be guaranteed with the military still in charge.

They continue to hold rallies to honour those killed since protests started in December and call for accountability for their deaths.

More broadly, Sudan’s security forces see themselves as the country’s natural rulers and want to protect their sprawling economic interests.

“Their natural tendency is to surrender nothing and to maintain ...the last word in all matters of the state – which was the situation under Bashir essentially,” said Magdi El Gizouli, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute.

“...Upturning this arrangement is a formidable task.”

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

Sudan has a recent history of civil conflicts including in the western region of Darfur and South Kordofan and Blue Nile in the south. These could flare again if political turmoil continues.

Suffering for Sudanese civilians already subjected to a severe economic crisis could also intensify. Of a population of 44 million, more than 5 million people are in need of assistance and nearly 2 million displaced, according to the United Nations.

WHAT ARE THE STAKES INTERNATIONALLY?

Sudan sits in a volatile region in northeast Africa. Instability could have an impact on war-torn South Sudan, where a fragile peace deal was signed last September, and on Libya to the north, where fighting has recently escalated.

Wealthy Gulf states have an interest in Sudan because of its agricultural potential and its Red Sea ports. The RSF is contributing troops to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

European powers and Egypt are concerned about potential northward flows of migrants from Sudan, which is on one of the transit routes towards the Mediterranean.

Reporting by Aidan Lewis, Khalid Abdelaziz and Nadine Awadalla; Writing by Aidan Lewis; editing by John Stonestreet