Showing posts with label SPA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SPA. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Sudan's PM Abdalla Hamdok says he survived ‘terror attack’ in Khartoum - “Professionally plotted” attack claimed by Sudanese Islamic Youth Movement

  • Convoy hit by gunfire near centre of capital.
  • PM Hamdok says he's in 'good shape'.
  • Abdalla Hamdok's motorcade was targeted by an explosion, claimed by Sudanese Islamic Youth Movement.
  • Three witnesses told Reuters the attack happened near the northern entrance to the Kober bridge, which crosses the Blue Nile from Khartoum North to the city centre, where Hamdok's office is located.
  • The convoy appeared to have been targeted from above, they said. State radio said it had been hit by gunfire and a projectile, while state television said it had been targeted by a car bomb.
  • Britain's ambassador to Sudan, Irfan Siddiq, called today's incident "a deeply worrying event (that) reaffirmed the fragile nature of this transition and the vital role being played by the PM".
  • After Monday's attack the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), which spearheaded the anti-Bashir movement, called for further rallies to display unity and support for civilian rule. 
  • The protest movement that led the uprising against al-Bashir called the blast a “terrorist attack.” The statement by the Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change called on people to take to the streets to “show our unity and cohesion ... and protect the transitional authority.”
Read more in the following reports by Reuters, Daily Telegraph, Deutsche Welle, BBC, Associated Press - and tweets by PM Hamdok reassuring the world that he is in 'good shape' and back at his desk watching the news on TV. Note, the must-see disturbing film clip linked to in a postscript at the end of this post.

UPDATE 4-Sudan's PM survives assassination attempt in Khartoum
Report from Reuters by Khalid Abdelaziz (Additional reporting by Omar Fahmy in Cairo Writing by Aidan Lewis and Nadine Awadalla Editing by Mark Heinrich)
Dated Monday 09 March 2020

* Convoy hit by gunfire near centre of capital
* PM Hamdok says he's in 'good shape'
* Heads technocratic cabinet in fragile transition
* Military, civilians sharing power after Bashir ousted (Adds security council comment)

KHARTOUM, March 9 (Reuters) - Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok survived an assassination attempt targeting his convoy as he headed to work on Monday morning in the capital Khartoum, officials said.

Hamdok said he was in "good shape" and that what had happened would be "an additional push to the wheel of change in Sudan", where he heads a transitional government following the overthrow last year of long-time President Omar al-Bashir.

Hamdok's government is struggling to manage a severe economic crisis that triggered months of protests against Bashir and continued after his downfall in April.

Three witnesses told Reuters the attack happened near the northern entrance to the Kober bridge, which crosses the Blue Nile from Khartoum North to the city centre, where Hamdok's office is located.

The convoy appeared to have been targeted from above, they said. State radio said it had been hit by gunfire and a projectile, while state television said it had been targeted by a car bomb.

"I saw the moment of the explosion and the strike, and the strike came from a high building," one witness said.

Images broadcast on regional TV channels and social media showed a convoy including several damaged white SUVs and a badly damaged car.

Large crowds of onlookers gathered as police tried to secure the site. One member of Hamdok's entourage suffered light injuries, a government statement said.

An investigation was launched into who was behind the attack, said Information Minister Faisal Salih. 

 "Terrorist attempts and dismantling the old regime will be dealt with decisively. What happened not only targeted the prime minister himself but targeted the Sudanese revolution."

The Sudanese security council headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan condemned the attack and said it would seek the help of friendly countries to investigate it and bring suspects to justice, a statement said.

TENSE TRANSITION

Hamdok leads a government of technocrats under a power-sharing agreement between the military and civilian groups for a transitional period due to last until late 2022.

Relations between civilians and the military have been tense, and the government has encountered resistance as it tries to implement economic reforms.

Transitional authorities are also taking steps to disempower Bashir's supporters, including parts of the security services.

In mid-January, armed security agents linked to Bashir fought soldiers in Khartoum for several hours, after a dispute linked to severance packages.

Soon after Bashir's overthrow, authorities said they had thwarted several coup attempts by military officers.

"The attempted assassination of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is the new episode in a series of coup plots against the revolution," Khalid Omer, a leading member of the civilian coalition that backed last year's uprising, said on Twitter.

Hamdok is an economist and former senior United Nations official who is well connected with the international community.

Britain's ambassador to Sudan, Irfan Siddiq, called Monday's incident "a deeply worrying event (that) reaffirmed the fragile nature of this transition and the vital role being played by the PM".

Thousands of anti-military protesters have held demonstrations in recent weeks to support Hamdok and his government.

After Monday's attack the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), which spearheaded the anti-Bashir movement, called for further rallies to display unity and support for civilian rule. 

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Sudan's prime minister survives assassination attempt in Khartoum
Report from The Daily Telegraph.co.uk
AFRICA CORRESPONDENT
Dated Monday 09 March 2020 • 4:50pm

Sudan's prime minister survives assassination attempt in Khartoum
Abdalla Hamdok's motorcade was targeted by an explosion, claimed by Sudanese Islamic Youth Movement
Photo: Security measures are taken at the site after a roadside bomb explodes near Sudanese prime minister's convoy in Khartoum CREDIT: Mahmoud Hjaj/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Sudan’s reformist prime minister has pledged to press ahead with his country’s “democratic revolution” after narrowly surviving an assassination attempt on Monday.

A motorcade carrying Abdalla Hamdok was struck by an explosion and sustained gunfire as it approached Cooper Bridge in the capital Khartoum shortly after 9am, government officials said.

Mr Hamdok’s armoured vehicle was damaged in the attack but he himself escaped unharmed.

There were no reports of fatalities although a police outrider was wounded.

The assassination attempt, responsibility for which was claimed by a little-known group calling itself the “Sudanese Islamic Youth Movement”, will be seen as an attempt to thwart Mr Hamdok in his efforts to lead Sudan towards civilian democracy after decades of military dictatorship....

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Sudan's leader survives attempted assassination
Report from Deutsche Welle.com
By kmm/ng (Reuters,dpa,AP)
Dated Monday 09 March 2020

Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok was traveling in convoy through the capital of Khartoum when there was an explosion. Hamdok survived and was taken to a "safe place" but it isn't known who carried out the attack. 
Photo: Sudan's prime minister survived an attack on his convoy in the capital Khartoum on Monday morning, reported state news agency SUNA.

Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok was in "good health and in a safe place" following an explosion that targeted his convoy as he traveled to work.

No group has so far claimed responsibility for the attack.

Tweeting pictures of himself seated behind a large desk after the incident, Hamdok assured the Sudanese people that he is well and "completely healthy."

"What happened will not stop the path of change, it will be nothing but an additional push in the strong waves of the revolution," he said on Twitter.

What happened in the attack?
The attack targeted Hamdok's convoy on Monday morning in the northeast Kober district of the city. Sudan's information minister, Faisal Salih, said that the attack was carried out using both explosives and firearms.

Images on state television showed at least two damaged vehicles at the blast site that was cordoned off by police.

Salih, said: "Terrorist attempts and dismantling the old regime will be dealt with decisively," quoted Reuters news agency. A search is underway to find the attackers.

Hamdok has headed an interim military-civilian government after a huge pro-democracy movement swept the country, ousting longterm ruler Omar al-Bashir in April 2019. Hamdok's government is in charge over a three-year transition period, intended to pave the way for democratic elections.

 Watch video 02:22 Sudanese celebrate power-sharing agreement
- - -

Sudan PM Abdalla Hamdok survives assassination attempt
Report from BBC News 
Dated Monday 09 March 2020
Photo: The area has been cordoned off by the police
Sudan's prime minister has survived an assassination attempt after his convoy was attacked in the capital, Khartoum. "I would ...Read more: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-51800278
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Sudan PM says he survived 'terror attack' in capital
By Samy Magdy, Associated Press (AP)
Dated Monday 09 March 2020 (7:23 a.m.) - excerpts:

The country’s top prosecutor, Taj al-Ser Ali al-Hebr, said in a statement that prosecutors have embarked on their investigation into the “professionally plotted” attack.

A statement from the prime minister's office said the attackers used explosives and firearms, and that a security officer was lightly wounded. The statement was read by Faisal Saleh, Sudan’s information minister and interim government spokesman. He said the convoy was hit near the Kober Bridge.

Footage posted online showed two white, Japanese-made SUVs typically used by Sudan’s top officials parked on a street, damaged with its widows broken. Another vehicle was badly damaged in the blast. Several dozen people were seen at the site of the attack, chanting: “With our blood and soul, we redeem you, Hamdok.”

The protest movement that led the uprising against al-Bashir called the blast a “terrorist attack.” The statement by the Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change called on people to take to the streets to “show our unity and cohesion ... and protect the transitional authority.”

- - -
Photo: Sudanese policemen stand around vehicles that were part of Prime Mister Abdalla Hamdok's motorcade in Khartoum, Sudan. Credit: https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/w/sudans-pm-survives-assassination-attempt
- - -
Agence France-Presse (AFP) Photo: KHARTOUM: Sudanese rescue teams and security forces gather next to damaged vehicles at the site of an assassination attempt against Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who survived the attack with explosives unharmed, in the capital Khartoum yesterday. – AFP

POSTSCRIPT - IN HASTE - FROM SUDAN WATCH EDITOR
Last night, I spent 4+ hours following links and tweets leading to and from the following tweet. The tweet features a really disturbing film clip. In disbelief, I viewed the clip, plus a few lengthier versions, six times. Each time felt more scary than the last. The background music adds to the film's seriousness, intensity and creepiness. I am not sure what to make of it all, need more time to think. In my view, the film footage appears to be genuine. Here is the tweet linking to the must-see film clip (hat tip and thanks to Eric Reeves).
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Monday, March 02, 2020

In Sudan, Hemedti leads the fray (Gérard Prunier)

  • In reality, it is Hemedti, the brutal and cunning general who organised the harsh crackdown in Khartoum last June, who wields the real power in Sudan, writes Gerard Prunier
  • After arresting Bashir, Hemedti became vice-president of the Transitional Military Council and was effectively its real boss
  • The RSF's military and technical equipment in fact come from the United Arab Emirates
  • The overthrown regime seemed to embody all the mistakes of the past. Read full story:
In Sudan, General Hemedti leads the fray
Analysis from The New Arab - www.alaraby.co.uk
Dated 5 February 2020
By Gérard Prunier (Former chief of the Centre français des études éthiopiennes in Addis-Abeba, member of the Centre d’études des mondes africains of Paris and author of several articles and books on Sudan)

Since the overthrow and arrest of President Omar al-Bashir on 10 April last year, there has been a fragile cohabitation between civil society and the semi-privatised "armed forces". 

Indeed Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, who represents the civilian side of the set-up, told a visiting US congressional delegation in Khartoum in January that "the civil-military partnership in Sudan could serve as a model for other countries." 

The idea, far from just being a piece of triumphalist braggadocio, raises the question of what has been going on in Sudan in recent months.

A return to civil society
After 25 years of dictatorship, the Islamist regime in Khartoum had nothing more to offer than further failures and mounting corruption. The economic crash was the last straw. In 2018, the price of a kilo of lentils went up by 225 percent, rice by 169 percent, bread 300 percent, and fuel 30 percent. 

There was no cooking gas, or even running water. At the same time, the 2018 budget of Sudanese pounds (SDG) 173 bn (about $27 bn) allocated nearly SDG 24 bn to the military and security sectors, but only just over SDG 5 bn to education and less than SDG 3 bn to health.

Civil society responded to this descent into hell with a spontaneous mobilisation whose roots went back to October 2012, and which now gathered momentum. Workers' groups began setting up professional organisations.

Today there are 17 of them, federated under the umbrella Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA). This clandestine unionism operated with an organisational rigour worthy of the pre-1917 Leninists, but without any particular ideology apart from an embryonic democratism and a rejection of violence.

The slogan "Silmiyya!" (Peaceful!) was to become the rallying cry of the protestors. Political parties which had become more or less forgotten under the 30 years of military-Islamic dictatorship regained at least a little strength, brought together in the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC).

Despite its extraordinary popularity, this democratic movement had three weak points: it was very urban in nature, it grouped essentially the Awlad al-Beled (the Arabs of the central provinces), and apart from the trade unionists of the SPA, it was very divided.

A general backed by the UAE
The situation at the beginning of 2019 was thus somewhat special. The Islamic-military regime was no longer Islamic, and the regular army had been set into competition with paramilitary forces which had become autonomous when then-President Bashir deployed them into overseas conflicts. The dispatch to Yemen of the "volunteers" of the Rapid Support Force (RSF) by their commander, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Daglo aka Hemedti, was crucial.

After arresting Bashir, Hemedti became vice-president of the Transitional Military Council and was effectively its real boss, rather than its official president, Gen. Abdel Fatah Abderrahman Burhan. Significantly, these volunteers are better armed than Burhan's regular army. The RSF's military and technical equipment in fact come from the United Arab Emirates.

Cunning, brutal and intelligent, if little educated, Hemedti became a millionaire through the "muscular" exploitation of the gold mines in western Sudan. He was the Janjaweed militia chief in Darfur, where he committed massive violence before overthrowing President Bashir, who saw him as his protector. 

Hence the ambiguity of the situation: was this a military coup d'état, or a democratic revolution? 

The popular uprising was a mixture of jamboree, open-ended political forum and social solidarity display. Everybody was looking after children - there are lots of them - women were everywhere, and the people came to the capital from afar. The basic slogans: "Silmiya!" (Peaceful!), "Hurriya!" (Freedom!), "Thawra!" (Revolution!), "Didd al-haramiyya!" (Down with the thieves!) and "Madaniyya!" (Civilian!). 

A camp, a festival, a space for joy and celebration, the sit-in was essentially revolutionary.

But while some soldiers were fraternising with the crowd, others, especially in the provinces, were killing or injuring the supporters of change. Those who opened fire on the demonstrators were not soldiers of the regular army, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), which was doing its best to protect them. It was either mercenaries of the RSF who came from Darfur, or an operations unit of the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) - the secret services, set up by Salah Gosh.

The uprising in Darfur had already destroyed the image of a "homogenous nation" led by a radical version of Islam, and had exposed the reality of a mafia regime which had deviated into illegal commerce during its dream petrol period between 1999 and 2011.

The "deep state" created by the Islamists had established itself as the ideological - and financial - flipside of a Sudan which had become phoney. For many in Sudan, the events of 2019 were an occasion to go back over developments since independence in 1956. Everything was brought out in the popular debates: the "civil war" with the disparate South, the coups, the empty rhetoric of a democracy lived in fits and starts, Islamism as the magic solution, the colonialism of the centre over all the outlying areas.

Even Arabism did not escape criticism. In this amazing thirst for demystification, the overthrown regime seemed to embody all the mistakes of the past.

Symptoms of the nostalgic revolution
This "nostalgic revolution" has been very ill understood by the international community. There are, of course, parallels with the various "Arab springs" - the same hostility to dictatorship, the same aspiration to democracy, but with no illusions about political Islam, which aroused obvious hostility among the protestors, no doubt because of Sudan's ethnic heterogeneity.

The killer General Hemedti hails from the outlying Darfur area and he has rallied to the RSF flag many soldiers straying from the wars of the Sahel-Chadians, Nigerians, Central Africans, and even some Boko Haram deserters.

He does not harbour hostility to Islam because it is too much part of Sudanese culture to be rejected. But the Islamists who prefer the Islamist "deep state" to their Sudanese homeland have lost control of the population. That is why the attempt by the Saudis and the UAE to preserve an Islamist regime without the Muslim Brotherhood has little chance of success.

Clean up at the NISS barracks
The UAE leader, Sheikh Mohammad Bin Zayed (MBZ), realised this more swiftly than his Saudi "allies", as indeed did General Hemedti. When on 14 January semi-demobilised elements of the NISS mutinied in two of the barracks where they were cooling their heels, Hemedti's reaction was immediate: his men attacked the barracks, and fighting went on late into the night. 

The mutineers had just learned that their operations unit, which was involved in racketeering, kidnapping and illegal taxation, had been disbanded.

The NISS groups got the worst of it, and their dead were written off. But the General had to make a trip to Abu Dhabi to explain to MBZ precisely what he was up to. He may be the UAE's ally in Sudan, but he is far from being a passive tool in the region, as MBZ realised when Hemedti declined to send reinforcements to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Libya, stalled outside Tripoli without being able to take the city. 

The Emiratis were reduced to recruiting "security guards" through small ads using Black Shield Security Services, a UAE front company.

Another example of the Darfur General's autonomy came on 11 January, when groups linked to the Islamist "deep state" tried to organise antigovernment demonstrations at Wad Madani, in central Sudan. Hemedti did nothing to help them, and they had to pay unemployed agricultural workers to swell their ranks.  

So was Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok justified in portraying civil-military relations in Sudan as a model to the Americans? Half. By "military" one means Hemedti, because the regular army no longer controls the situation, either politically or militarily. When there were negotiations in Juba with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (a guerrilla faction which still exists in Kordofan, in the south of Sudan), it was Hemedti who took charge of the talks and won SPLM-North agreement to a framework accord which may be ratified on 14 February.

PM accused of sluggishness
Under the power-sharing agreement signed in Khartoum on 5 July last year, there will be no elections until 2021, and those involved in the current transition will not be allowed to stand. 

PM Abdallah Hamdok is certainly doing what he can. But he is doing it at a pace which is irritatingly slow for a population which had struggled with astonishing determination until June 2019. He has only just dismissed the foreign minister, whose incompetence was a drag on Sudanese diplomacy, resurgent after 30 years of paralysis and corruption.

It remains for the World Bank to be begged for aid which the Americans continue to block on the basis of sanctions imposed earlier on the Islamist regime, and which are now obsolete.

Hemedti appears to maintain correct, but not warm, relations with the prime minister. He has talked to old political parties such as the Ummah of Sadeq al-Mahdi, and more discreetly with others. His men are involved in distributing free food and medicine. Nowadays he recruits his soldiers not just from his native Darfur, but also from among the Awlad al-Beled, the inhabitants of the country's central Nile Valley regions.

What about the people of Darfur, whose relatives he may have massacred? They are queueing up outside his offices in Khartoum. "At least he's someone we know, we know how to handle him. And it would be nice to have one of our own in the presidency, after having been colonised." 

How far will the camel trader turned militia chief go? 

People may object to his lack of education, and to his non-Sudanese origins, but that has not prevented him becoming a key player on the national and regional scenes.

Gerard Prunier is a French academic and historian specialising in the Horn of Africa.
This article was originally published by our partners Orient XXI. 
Join the conversation: @The_NewArab
Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.

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Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Sudan: Omar al-Bashir had cash worth $113m: $90m from Saudi royal family - $25m sent to him by Prince Mohammed bin Salman to use outside state budget

Article from the Financial Times
By TOM WILSON in Nairobi 
Dated Friday 23 August 2019
Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir faces court reckoning 
Photo:  Dictator who loomed over country for a generation faces corruption charges Omar al-Bashir sits inside a cage as corruption charges are read out © Reuters 

Thirty years after seizing power in a military coup and four months after widespread protests forced him from office, Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir, once one of the most notorious leaders on the African continent, this week appeared in court. 

He appeared not at the International Criminal Court that charged him with genocide in 2010 for trying to wipe out non-Arab ethnic groups in Darfur, but in the east African country he has dominated for the past three decades. 

Dressed in immaculate white robes, Mr Bashir sat in a black metal cage as prosecutors and investigators described the corruption charges against him. 

The former president, who is expected to plead not guilty, spoke only to confirm his name, his age and his residence ” Khartoum’s Kober prison. 

For the millions of Sudanese citizens that struggled under his dictatorial regime and the hundreds of thousands that protested since December for his removal, it was a huge moment. “Bashir was the symbol of the regime since 1989,” said Wasil Ali, a Sudanese commentator and the former deputy editor of the Sudan Tribune, an online newspaper.  “People seeing him in court breaks a longstanding condition, it allows them to feel that Bashir is gone.” 

Despite an international arrest warrant, US sanctions and countless civil conflicts, Mr Bashir had clung to power, looming over the country for a generation. Ever present, barely a day went by without him giving a statement or making an appearance on state television. 

But as symbolic as the trial is, many also fear that the prosecution will not be sufficient to deliver justice. “It is a relief to see Bashir behind bars but we think this is not enough,” said Amjed Farid, a spokesman for the Sudanese Professionals Association, one of the groups that spearheaded the demonstrations that led to his ousting. “The current case against him is about money laundering and dealing in foreign currency [but] we don’t think this is the only crime that Bashir committed.”  

Though more charges could follow, Mr Bashir is currently accused of illicit possession of foreign currency and accepting gifts in an unofficial manner after a raid of his home in April, in which military officers said they found cash in at least three currencies worth $113m. 

At this week’s hearing, a police officer testified that Mr Bashir had admitted that some of the money was part of $90m he had received from members of the Saudi royal family, including the current de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. 

“The accused told us that the money was part of a sum of $25m sent to him by Prince Mohammed bin Salman to be used outside of the state budget,” police Brigadier General Ahmed Ali told the court. 

The revelation was further evidence of prolonged efforts by Saudi Arabia to maintain influence in Sudan. In 2015 Mr Bashir agreed to send thousands of troops to support the Saudi-led war in Yemen and in April, Saudi Arabia and its ally the United Arab Emirates were quick to back Sudan’s new military leaders. 

That Mr Bashir had received personal payments from another leader would have been shocking to many Sudanese, said Mr Ali, but pales in comparison to the violence and war crimes of which he also stands accused. “To see him on corruption [charges], I think that fuels a suspicion that the government is not serious about really prosecuting for the crimes that really matters,” he said. 

Over 30 years Mr Bashir’s secret police terrorised opponents, while his army officers led murderous military campaigns in the now independent South Sudan and in Darfur, South Kordofan and other regions of the country. 

Part of the problem is that under a transitional agreement signed last week, civilian administrators will share power for the next three years with military officers, all of whom served Mr Bashir loyally until his ousting and some of whom were directly involved in some of the former regime’s worst atrocities. 

Still, the SPA’s Mr Farid said there was little appetite in Sudan to hand Mr Bashir over to the International Criminal Court, which issued warrants for his arrest in 2009 and 2010 on charges of war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. The next hearing in Sudan is due in September.

“It is right for the Sudanese people to see Bashir facing justice in Sudan but this is conditioned on sufficient legal reform to guarantee that justice has been served and that all victims can present their cases against him,” Mr Farid said. “He needs to answer to his crimes and we don’t think there is any place for him to hide.”

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Thursday, July 18, 2019

Explainer: What's at stake in Sudan's transition? The 2 sides still need to sign a constitutional declaration

Note from Sudan Watch Editor: To be clear, the two sides - Transitional Military Council (TMC) and Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) - still need to sign a constitutional declaration that is meant to complete the political deal. In my experience of blogging news about agreements signed in Sudan things change before the ink is dry, creating delay, after delay, after delay, going on year, after year, after year. Sigh.

Article by Reuters
Published Thursday 18 July 2019 4:35 PM
Explainer: What's at stake in Sudan's transition?

CAIRO (Reuters) - Sudan’s ruling military council and an alliance of protest and opposition groups have signed a political accord on a three-year transition towards elections.

But progress towards a final deal has been slow and marred by violence, casting doubt on protesters’ hopes for civilian rule and democracy.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

In December, protests triggered by an economic crisis swept across Sudan, demanding an end to Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year rule.

On April 11 the military toppled and arrested Bashir, announcing the formation of a transitional military council.

But protests continued, demanding the transition be civilian-led.

The military council and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) alliance began talks, which soon stalled over the make-up of a sovereign council to steer the transition.

At dawn on June 3, security forces — led according to witnesses by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — moved to clear a sit-in outside the Defence Ministry in Khartoum. Doctors linked to the opposition said 128 people were killed in the raid and ensuing violence. The government has confirmed 61 deaths.

Talks collapsed, resuming after several weeks under pressure from African-led mediators and after massive protests on June 30. Agreement on a power-sharing deal was announced on July 5.

WHO ARE THE KEY ACTORS?

The military council is formed of seven members, led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Its most prominent member, however, is his deputy General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who also leads the RSF and is widely known as Hemedti.

Both Burhan and Hemedti have close ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates due to Sudan’s participation in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

The driving force in the FFC has been the Sudanese Professionals Association, which rose to prominence coordinating the protests against Bashir. It has no leader or strict hierarchy, though top members include Mohammad Naji al-Assam and Ahmed al-Rabie.

Prominent constituents of the alliance also include the Umma Party led by former prime minister Sadiq al-Mahdi and three of Sudan’s five rebel groups.

WHAT ARE THE NEXT STEPS?

The two sides still need to sign a constitutional declaration that is meant to complete the political deal.

That would allow transitional bodies to be formed, including a sovereign council that would include five officers selected by the military council, five civilians chosen by the FFC and another civilian to be agreed by both sides.

The initial agreement also provides for a government of technocrats and an independent investigation into recent violence.

WHAT HAS HELD UP A DEAL?

The deal was meant to be signed days after its announcement, but was thrown into doubt by a demand from the military council that its members be granted immunity from prosecution.

Blanket immunity is strongly opposed by the protest movement, already concerned about how an independent investigation could be guaranteed with the military still in charge.

They continue to hold rallies to honour those killed since protests started in December and call for accountability for their deaths.

More broadly, Sudan’s security forces see themselves as the country’s natural rulers and want to protect their sprawling economic interests.

“Their natural tendency is to surrender nothing and to maintain ...the last word in all matters of the state – which was the situation under Bashir essentially,” said Magdi El Gizouli, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute.

“...Upturning this arrangement is a formidable task.”

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

Sudan has a recent history of civil conflicts including in the western region of Darfur and South Kordofan and Blue Nile in the south. These could flare again if political turmoil continues.

Suffering for Sudanese civilians already subjected to a severe economic crisis could also intensify. Of a population of 44 million, more than 5 million people are in need of assistance and nearly 2 million displaced, according to the United Nations.

WHAT ARE THE STAKES INTERNATIONALLY?

Sudan sits in a volatile region in northeast Africa. Instability could have an impact on war-torn South Sudan, where a fragile peace deal was signed last September, and on Libya to the north, where fighting has recently escalated.

Wealthy Gulf states have an interest in Sudan because of its agricultural potential and its Red Sea ports. The RSF is contributing troops to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

European powers and Egypt are concerned about potential northward flows of migrants from Sudan, which is on one of the transit routes towards the Mediterranean.

Reporting by Aidan Lewis, Khalid Abdelaziz and Nadine Awadalla; Writing by Aidan Lewis; editing by John Stonestreet

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