Saturday, April 15, 2006

Don't Intervene in Darfur: Let the African Union do it

The solution to helping Darfur must come from Africa, with the world's help, not the other way around [this blog author agrees], writes Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, and a founding member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy.

Excerpt from his opinion piece at Reason April 13, 2006 [hat tip PoTP] entitled Don't Intervene in Darfur: Let the African Union do it:
"The neighboring African countries recognize what is at stake. Although no one has known for certain what the United States and NATO might do, this uncertainty did not stop Nigeria and Egypt from sending peacekeepers to Darfur last year. ... Leaders in Chad, Kenya, and even Libya have expressed a willingness to help resolve the conflict.

The deployment in Darfur is an important test case of the African Union's credibility. Given the many urgent demands on American and European troops in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere, the United States and its allies should do nothing to discourage Sudan's neighbors from taking the initiative; unfortunately, that is exactly what NATO involvement would do."
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UN resources and helicopters

In his blog entry April 7, 2006 Jan Pronk, the UN Secretary General's Special Representative for Sudan and Head of UN mission in southern Sudan, writes:
"The text of the so-called Enhanced Humanitarian Cease Fire Agreement which seems to emerge from the present talks is much better than the D'Jamena cease fire agreement of May 2004. However, it is also more complicated, because of the zoning of positions, which have to be verified, and the introduction of buffer zones and corridors between the zones, which requires checking and monitoring of troop movements. I am afraid that the African Union peace force in Darfur, given its present size, strength and composition, will not be able to carry out that task. Success in the talks may breed failure on the ground. The only way to avoid a new failure is to bring a more robust force to Darfur. In my view that can only be a UN force."
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AU in Darfur needs bolstering

Apr 14 2006 NATO not UN should be protecting Darfur - Annan says a UN force should be sent to Darfur.

Last opportunity to demand postponement of Chad's May 3 elections

When it comes to journalists and Darfur, Julie Flint is my favourite. She has written extensively on Sudan and, with Alex de Waal, authored "Darfur: A Short History of a Long War."

In the following excerpt from her latest piece in The Daily Star April 15, 2006 entitled "The lethal link between Chad and Darfur" [hat tip CfD] Flint offers a great solution that makes sense:
"If concern for peace in Darfur extends beyond rhetoric, serious action is needed to avert a further deterioration in Chad in the event that Deby can, on this occasion, cling to power. Deby has scheduled presidential elections for May 3. He won fraudulent elections in 2001 and broke a promise not to stand again by amending the Constitution to enable a third term. The chaos in Chad is reason enough to demand a postponement of the May elections, which are set to repeat the farce of 2001, and to convoke, under international supervision, a national conference to launch a genuine democratic process. Sudan's Military Intelligence must be made aware that involvement in a proxy war against Deby will carry a heavy price.

Sudan's denial of any connection to the Chadian rebels should be treated with the contempt it deserves. But the Sudanese connection must be put in context: Chad's crisis is essentially a domestic crisis and its solutions are primarily domestic. In the 15 years since Deby took power, the international community has failed signally to push for democratization of his brutal, authoritarian regime. Chad, like Darfur, requires a genuine, truly popular political process that will create enduring peace. This may be the last opportunity to demand it."

Friday, April 14, 2006

AU, UN teams hold meeting on Darfur

Two teams from the AU Commission and the UN Secretariat have met in Addis Ababa over Sudan's Darfur region, the AU has said today to discuss the implementation of the AU Peace and Security Council communique of March 10. They also discussed the UN Security Council's Resolution 1663 of March 24, 2006 pertaining to the envisaged transition to a UN operation in Darfur. - UPI/AND April 14, 2006:
The statement said the teams agreed to work together to expedite planning for the envisaged transition to a UN operation in Darfur. In the meantime, the AU Mission in Sudan (AMIS), which currently has about 7,000 personnel, including peacekeepers and observers, would be strenghtened, the statement said.

They also agreed to establish mechanisms for coordination and joint planning, in consultation with the Sudanese government and other parties concerned, it said.

The AU delegation was led by Commissioner for Peace and Security, Said Djinnit while the UN team was led by Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Hedi Annabi, the statement said.
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Chad hosts 250,000 refugees and displaced people in its eastern region

Today, Chadian President Deby said if the international community did not solve the Darfur crisis by June and guarantee security on the border then his country would no longer shelter Sudanese refugees.

Apr 15 2006 The Times President threatens to expel 200,000 who escaped Darfur

Apr 14 2006 IRIN President threatens to expel Darfur refugees as attacks surge in lawless east - There are 250,000 refugees and displaced in eastern Chad.

Annan says a UN force should be sent to Darfur, even if Sudanese won't agree?

According to a report at Radio Netherlands 14 April 2006 "Mr Annan told the NOVA television programme that a UN force should be sent, even if the Sudanese government were not to agree." Copy of report, in full:

"NATO not UN should be protecting Darfur"
by RN Security and Defence Editor Hans de Vreij:

Lord Owen, a former international peace negotiator believes the plea by UN's Special Representative for Sudan, Jan Pronk for a 'robust' UN force to be sent into Darfur is unlikely to materialise. Lord Owen, formerly EU representative during the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina and now a member of Britain's House of Lords, told Radio Netherlands that only NATO would have the capability to do "hard peacekeeping" as he phrased it.

However, he added that NATO was likely to continue with the new tasks it has in Afghanistan first, before engaging troops to establish peace in Darfur. For the time being, the alliance's role there is limited to providing logistical assistance to a small peacekeeping force from the African Union.

NATO problems

Jan Pronk last week strongly spoke out against any NATO intervention in the region of Darfur. He said that action by NATO would cause,

"...massive support by the whole of the [Sudanese] population against such an intervention. People will think that this is just a third theatre of Western intervention after Afghanistan and Iraq. They will fight."

Instead, Jan Pronk believes a UN peacekeeping force consisting mainly of African and Asian troops with 'enabling' support from Western UN member states would be acceptable for the Sudanese government.

During a brief visit to the Netherlands, UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan said on Thursday that he had sought unspecified military support from the Netherlands and countries like France and the United Kingdom for a new peacekeeping mission in Darfur.

Mr Annan told the NOVA television programme that a UN force should be sent, even if the Sudanese government were not to agree.

Meanwhile, the UN Security Council is yet to give a green light for the dispatching of such a force. But according to Lord Owen, the UN lacks key capabilities for "hard peacekeeping", such as an air force or heavy artillery.

"In many of these regions, you will need this. You can subcontract that to NATO, as we did in Bosnia, but there were a lot of problems with that, such as 'dual-key' command."

Referring to Jan Pronk, Lord Owen added that he respected his views.

"He is an experienced figure; he is there in the field, so I respect his judgment. But he has got a history, he has not always been strong on defence.

Disgrace

Lord Owen referred to the situation in Darfur as,

"... a disgrace. The trouble is, at the moment I don't think the African Union is yet ready to ask for NATO to come in. What we are doing in NATO is right, we are helping the African Union, flying troops in, we're giving them logistical support, we're acting in the background. Personally, I doubt the African Union can deal with Darfur and I think there will come a moment when the states in the region will ask us to go in."
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See NATO ready to help UN in Darfur - What happened to NATO supporting African Union Mission in Darfur?

US Deputy Secretary Zoellick Welcomes AU Chair Konare

US State Department transcript of remarks before meeting with Alpha Oumar Konare, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, April 14 2006.

Statement on Chad, Darfur by Security Council President

Statement to the press, delivered today by Security Council President Wang Guangya (China), says the situation in Darfur and the mounting tension at the border between the Sudan and Chad was under consideration by the members of the Security Council. Excerpt:
The members of the Security Council express support for the efforts of the African Union and invite the Secretary-General and the African Union to make available their good offices to address this crisis.

Chad Conflict At 800 Casualties?

Prensa claims some 400 soldiers and rebels died and 387 were injured in the past few hours in Chad, Administration Minister Mahamat Ali Abdallah reported Friday. Ali Abdallah did not mention civilian victims, but humanitarian organizations said about 100 civilians went to hospitals.
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Chad: Around the clock surgery in N'djamena's main hospital

"We had to perform quite a lot of double inferior limbs amputations. Most of the wounded are quite young. We've been treating girls and even a three-year old baby." - MSF Press Release:

Since yesterday afternoon, MSF has been treating heavily wounded civilians after widespread violence in Chad reached its capital city, N'Djamena. So far, surgical teams have provided treatment to more than 60 people in the Hopital General de Reference National (HGNR), the main reference hospital in the country. [via PoTP]

Central African Republic closes border with Sudan

Central African Republic closed its border with Sudan on Friday in protest at what it called Khartoum's "aggression" following rebel attacks on its neighbour Chad, its foreign minister said.

"We are closing the border. We condemn the aggression against Chad," Central African Republic's Foreign Minister Jean Paul Ngoupande told Reuters, adding the country was stopping short of cutting diplomatic ties with Khartoum.

Chadian

Full report Reuters (Image courtesy AFP) 14 April 2006.

Chad cuts Sudan ties after attack

"We have taken the decision to break our diplomatic relations with Sudan today and to proceed to close our frontiers," Chadian President Idriss Deby told a rally in N'Djamena.

Mr Deby warned that the international community had until the end of June to resolve the conflict in Darfur, otherwise they would have "to find another country" to shelter some 200,000 Sudanese refugees in eastern Chad. He said he had ordered all Sudanese diplomats to leave the country. Full report BBC 14 Apr 2006.
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Sudan's government denied it was helping anti-Deby rebels

"Let me repeat that Sudan is not involved in these Chadian internal affairs. They have a revolt, we are not involved," said Sudanese Foreign Ministry spokesman Jamal Ibrahim. Full report Reuters 14 Apr 2006.

During a press conference at Khartoum Airport today Sudanese FM Lam Akol said Sudan hoped that Chad would remain stable. "Chad's instability would negatively affect the security in Sudan. What is taking place at the moment was a Chadian internal concern that has no connection with us" he said.

FUC rebels in Chad

Photo: Chadian rebels from the United Front for Democratic Change (FUC), an alliance of nine rebel groups, on drill in rebel territory, February 10, 2006. Reuters/Opheera Mcdoom

Chad says to stop oil output if no World Bank deal

Chad will stop its oil production from Tuesday unless it reaches an agreement with the World Bank to end a dispute over the use of oil revenues, a government minister said on Friday - Reuters 14 Apr 2006:
"We will turn off the tap in a week if there is no agreement with the World Bank," Human Rights Minister Abderamane Djasnabaille told a news conference after a cabinet meeting. He said production would be stopped on Tuesday, April 18 at midday.

The World Bank suspended loans to Chad on Jan. 12, saying the government had breached an agreement with the bank when it changed a law to access oil profits from a pipeline operated by a U.S.-led consortium that were meant to benefit the poor. The bank also froze pipeline profits saved in a London escrow account, which it has refused to release to the government. The savings include royalties from the pipeline's operator, Exxon Mobil.

"The World Bank does not have the right to block funds that do not belong to it," Djasnabaille said.

Chad parades captured rebels incl Sudanese police officer

Reuters report by Daniel Flynn says Chad's government on Friday paraded captured rebels it said were recruited by Sudan. Excerpt:
The 160 prisoners, looking downcast and some wearing bedraggled camouflage uniforms, were displayed sitting on the ground before reporters and dignitaries in Independence Square at a rally aimed at bolstering popular support for Deby.

At least one was wounded, his arm dripping blood onto the ground, while another slumped forward in a faint. The captives were shown along with 14 military vehicles, some damaged, which the government said it seized while repelling Thursday's rebel assault. Some of the vehicles were mounted with machineguns and rocket launchers.

"What you can see here are mercenaries the Sudan government has recruited among Sudanese and Chadians over there (in Sudan)," Chad's territorial administration minister, General Mahamat Ali Abdallah Nassour, told reporters.

One of the prisoners displayed in N'Djamena told reporters he was a Sudanese police officer of Chadian parents who had been offered 500,000 CFA francs to fight with the rebels.

Mahamat Ali Mahamat, 31, said he entered Chad for the first time three weeks ago and that a "difficult social situation" obliged him to join the rebels.

Chad captures and parades FUC

Photo: Prisoners captured after a rebel assault on the capital, N'Djamena, put on display at the Place d'Independence (BBC)

Khartoum armed Arab insurgents inside Chad and dispatched them to overthrow Deby?

Western diplomats believe Sudan is trying to oust Mr Deby in retaliation for his role in the Darfur war, writes David Blair in Telegraph April 14. Excerpt:
Western diplomats believe Sudan is trying to oust Mr Deby in retaliation for his role in the Darfur war.

Khartoum has accused him of arming the rebels who began the fighting in Darfur three years ago.

Mr Deby comes from the black African Zaghawa tribe, also present in Darfur. The Zaghawas were among the tribes who rose up against Khartoum's control of Darfur.

Sudan believes Mr Deby sent arms to the main rebel group in Darfur, styling itself the Sudan Liberation Army.

Western diplomats have no doubt Sudan responded by arming Arab insurgents inside Chad and dispatching them to overthrow Mr Deby.

He is deeply unpopular in much of Chad, where Zaghawas make up only seven per cent of the population. The Arab tribes are his traditional opponents and they look to Khartoum's Arab-dominated regime for support.
Further reading

Apr 02 2006 Mohamat Nour's Chadian rebel United Front for Change (FUC) aims to depose Chadian president Deby

Apr 10 2005 African military monitors now on Sudan-Chad-CAR border - On Feb 8, 2006 the leaders of Sudan and Chad signed a peace agreement to end increasing tension over Darfur, pledging to normalize diplomatic relations and deny refuge to each other's rebel groups. The agreement is known as the Tripoli Declaration. On March 21, 2006 the African Union Peace and Security Council endorsed plans to deploy military observers on the Chad-Sudan border as per the Tripoli Declaration. Next day, the African Union sent observers on the Chad-Sudan border.

Apr 10 2006 FUC in eastern Chad mount fresh offensive to get to N'Djamena and oust Chadian President Deby

Apr 13 2006 France supports Deby - Chad says rebel attack on capital N'Djamena defeated - Chad claims rebels replused, blames Sudan for fomenting 'coup'

Apr 13 2006 French Mirage fighter dropped bomb near Chadian rebels heading for N'Djamena

Apr 13 2006 UN evacuating 148 staff from Chad into Cameroon - French planes had fired "warning shots"

Leaders of Sudan, Chad ok peace agreement

Photo: Leaders of Chad and Sudan on the evening of Wednesday 8 Feb 2006 signed a peace agreement in Tripoli, Libya under which they promised to immediately expel armed groups hostile to their respective governments. See Apr 10 African military monitors now on Sudan-Chad-CAR border.

Mahamat Nour Abdelkrim

Image via Genocide au Darfour blog entry posted by Le Comite 30 March 2006 - excerpt:
MAHAMAT NOUR ABDELKRIM
Le "capitaine" Mahamat Nour, ex-officier de l'armee tchadienne, est recherche pour avoir dirige les Janjawids, et avoir ete le principal planificateur du genocide au Darfour. De par sa nationalite tchadienne, il servait d'alibi au gouvernement soudanais. -- Human Rights Watch found evidence of coordination between Janjaweed militias and Muhammad Nour's RDL rebels.
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Darfur's men vanish from refugee camp

Apr 14 2006 Reuters report Darfur's men vanish from refugee camp - Freelance Reuters journalist Gabriela Matthews reports on the recruitment of Sudanese refugees from camps near Darfur by armed groups. Life is tough for everyone in the camps, including aid workers.
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Summary: Chad Fighting Sign of Trouble

Summary by The Associated Press Staff and agencies Apr 13, 2006:
COUNTRY OF CONFLICT: Chad suffered through a 1960-90 civil war and several small-scale insurgencies since 1998. Libya has repeatedly invaded, and 200,000 refugees from Sudan's Darfur region now live in eastern Chad.

OIL CONNECTION: Cracks began to form within the government when it started pumping oil in 2004. The rebellion is at least in part over who gets to control oil revenue.

Cambodians clean up Sudan's killing fields

Good luck to a group of 109 Cambodian soldiers leaving Phnom Penh tomorrow to join the UN demining mission in southern Sudan.

Twenty-six of the 135-person team to be stationed in the southern Sudanese city of Malakal are already in place with 25 vehicles, 70 mine detectors and six trailers, as well as other different types of logistical equipment.

Cambodian mine clearing soldiers

Photo: Cambodia mine-clearing soldiers stand at the Council of Ministers in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Wednesday 12 April 2006. (EPA/Mak Remissa/Rompres)

A seeing-off ceremony was held Wednesday presided over by Prime Minister Hun Sen. "It is the first time in the history of Cambodia to take part in an international UN peacekeeping mission. This is our pride and the great honor for our military, nation and the people," the premier said.

He went on to say that "it is a humanitarianism mission, so it is our obligation to participate the mission and play more and more important role in the regional and international affairs."

Cambodian mine clearing soldiers

Photo: Mr Douglas Gardner, United Nations Resident Coordinator (L) hands over the UN flag to a mine-clearing soldier at the Council of Ministers in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Wednesday 12 April 2006. (EPA/MAK REMISSA/Rompres)

Cambodian mine clearing soldiers

Photo: Prime Minister Hun Sen (C) walks past a UN flag at the end of a ceremony to commit Cambodian peacekeepers to Sudan at the Council of Ministers in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Wednesday 12 April 2006. (EPA/MAK REMISSA/Rompres)

CHRONOLOGY- Recent events in Chad

Timeline via Reuters.

Chad's President Idriss Deby

Photo: Chad's President Idriss Deby (R) inspects weaponry captured from the rebels in the capital N'djamena April 14, 2006 a day after Chadian insurgents attacked N'Djamena in the boldest assault yet by fighters who have vowed to end Deby's nearly 16-year rule and block a May 3 presidential election in which he is standing for re-election.

Deby said on Friday if no international solution was found for the Darfur crisis by the end of June his country would no longer shelter refugees from that Sudanese region. - Reuters/Claire Soares

Some news reports estimate 200,000 - 250,000 Sudanese refugees in Chad.

Thursday, April 13, 2006

UN evacuating 148 staff from Chad into Cameroon - French planes had fired "warning shots"

All calm on the streets of the capital after dawn attack, taxis and cars start circulating again, reports IRIN.

A spokesman for the French military said in Paris on Thursday lunchtime "we are undertaking exercises in Chad to preserve the security of French nationals". He denied that French forces had attacked rebel positions though said that French planes had fired "warning shots".

UN agencies scaling back in east Chad

IRIN reports UN aid workers have warned that the current instability is a particular threat in eastern Chad which is nearing the end of a short window of opportunity to build up food stocks, before the rainy season makes roads impassable from the end of June.

The UN said it was evacuating 148 non-essential staff from its various agencies to neighboring Cameroon aboard two chartered aircraft while some embassies, including the US, said they planned to evacuate family members, Betel Miarom reported Apr 13.

Foreign ministry advises Swiss in Chad to stay indoors

The Swiss foreign ministry in Bern is following events in Chad closely. "But there is no desperate need to evacuate the estimated 100 Swiss citizens who are there," spokesman Lars Knuchel told swissinfo.

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France supports Deby - Chad says rebel attack on capital N'Djamena defeated

Chadian President Idriss Deby's forces fought off the most daring strike yet by rebels against the capital N'Djamena on Thursday, as international concern grew over the escalating conflict. Reuters says Deby earlier told French radio he was in the presidential palace and the situation in the city was under control.

"France has lent its political support to President Deby and his government ... the rebels have to be given a warning," a source close to French President Jacques Chirac said, adding Chirac had called Deby several times in recent days.

Full report by Betel Miarom Reuters 13 Apr 2006.

Chad claims rebels repulsed, blames Sudan for fomenting 'coup'

FUC rep in France Laona Gong

Photo: Chadian rebels' FUC representative in France and former Chadian foreign minister Laona Gong poses during an interview in Paris. Gong has alleged that French fighter planes, part of a 1,200-man contingent in the former French colony, had bombed rebel-held towns in eastern Chad, causing civilian casualties. (AFP/Jacques Demarthon) 13 AFP Chad claims rebels repulsed, blames Sudan for fomenting 'coup'

Apr 13 2006 AP Troops in Chad put down rebel assault - Government troops using tanks and attack helicopters repelled a rebel assault on Chad's capital Thursday. An Associated Press reporter saw 10 bodies in the streets, and residents reported seeing many more.

Tense calm in Chadian capital after rebel coup attempt

Taxis were back on the streets Thursday as a tense calm returned to the Chadian capital of Ndjamena after a daring rebel coup attempt failed just three weeks ahead of planned presidential elections, local news reports said.

'The rebel columns have been entirely destroyed and there is now only some light weapon fire near the National Assembly, but the situation is now completely under control,' President Idriss Deby told French radio Radio France Internationale (RFI).

The French radio also reported one rebel was killed while some 50 people, mostly civilians, were injured during the attack. Full report M&C 13 Apr 2006.

France ready to evacuate some 1,500 French nationals in Chad if situation worsens

Speaking on French radio, Deby said fighting in the capital was under control and Chadian soldiers had wiped out a column of resistance close to the Sudan border.

Meanwhile, France, Chad's former colonial ruler, has reinforced a thousand strong military contingent it has in the country. It says it is ready to evacuate some 1,500 French nationals if the situation gets worse.

Full story EuroNews 13 Apr 2006.

French Mirage fighter dropped bomb near Chadian rebels heading for N'Djamena

Report just in from Bloomberg (Update 3) April 13, 2006 - excerpt:

A French Mirage fighter dropped a bomb near a column of Chadian rebels heading for the capital N'Djamena as a "warning" to insurgents seeking to overthrow President Idriss Deby, a French official said. The bomb fell "in the sand" yesterday and didn't cause any casualties, a French Defense Ministry spokesman, who asked not to be identified, said by telephone today.

Rebels of the United Front for Democratic Change, or FUC, battled government forces in N'Djamena beginning at dawn today before being repelled, President Deby said in an interview with Radio France International. The attack was "suicidal," he said.

"The situation in N'Djamena is under the control of the defense and security forces,'' Deby told RFI.

Attacks by the FUC rebels who are based along the eastern border with Sudan have increased in advance of presidential elections scheduled for next month. Deby, who seized power in 1990, is standing for re-election in polls that most opposition parties are boycotting. The main rebel forces are about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from N'Djamena, the French spokesman said.

Possible Coup

"I hope we're not in a situation where you've got a coup and an overthrow of the government,'' U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick said today in Washington.

Deby is a Zaghawa, an ethnic group that represents about 1.5 percent of Chad's 10 million people, the British Broadcasting Corp. reported on its Web site. His grip on power has been weakened by defections of former allies in recent months.

"It's dissatisfied elements of former Deby allies who are powerful figures in this rebellion," Jason Mosley, Africa editor at the Oxford Analytica, said in a telephone interview today.

Deby's nephew General Abakar Youssouf Mahamat Itno, who was Chad's senior army officer, died last month in fighting against rebels operating along the Sudanese border.

Deby may not remain in power beyond next week, Mosley said.

"The speed with which the rebel advance has moved towards N'Djamena indicates that their objective is to take Deby out," Mosley said. "They are not going to stop just because they didn't take the National Assembly this morning.''

Refugee Camps

A major concern amid the turmoil is the safety of camps in eastern Chad that house refugees from Sudan's Darfur region, Zoellick said following a speech at the Brookings Institution, a policy study group.

"The most up-to-date information I have is that the situation in the camps is stable and OK," Zoellick said. "We have to try to make sure that the people who are in the refugee camps are safe and can feed their babies."

Landlocked Chad produces about 170,000 barrels of oil a day and ships it in a pipeline that runs through Cameroon to the Atlantic Ocean. Exxon Mobil Corp. owns 40 percent of the project Petroliam Nasional Bhd. 35 percent and Chevron Corp. the rest.

In January, the World Bank cut off $124 million in loans to Chad after the central African nation changed its laws that ensured revenue from its oil pipeline would boost spending on education, health care, social services and rural development.

The changes, approved on Dec. 29 by Chad's parliament, will weaken the country's ability to reduce poverty, the World Bank said. The government has argued it needed to amend its Petroleum Revenue Management Law to boost revenue.

Casualty Claim

Yesterday's air attack by French planes caused an unknown number of casualties, said the FUC rebel representative in France, former Chad Foreign Minister Laona Gong, Agence France-Presse reported.

"We deplore numerous civilian victims of French bombings in the towns of Adre and Moudeina," AFP cited Gong as saying.

Jean-Francois Bureau, the chief French Defense Ministry spokesman, denied that there had been any attack on towns.

"here were no casualties," Bureau said. "We are not involved in any military action. We are there to protect our nationals."

About 1,500 French nationals live in Chad, a former French colony, and the French army has 1,250 soldiers in the country, the Defense Ministry said.

Deby came to power in 1990, when he successfully ousted then-President Hissene Habre after an offensive on N'Djamena from bases in Sudan.

In recent months, Deby has accused the Sudanese government of backing the rebels who have operated from Sudan's western region of Darfur.

Mosley of Oxford Analytica said that while the crisis in Chad distracts international attention away from the civil war in Darfur, there is no hard evidence that the government in Khartoum is arming the Chadian rebels.

"Just because they are able to set up shop in Darfur doesn't mean the Sudanese government is arming them," Mosley said. "Operating in Sudan doesn't make you a Sudanese proxy."

To contact the reporter on this story:
Helene Fouquet in Paris at hfouquet1@bloomberg.net;
Joe Bavier in Abidjan, Ivory Coast through Johannesburg at (27) prichardso10@bloomberg.net

See Update 4 for above report.

Further reading

Apr 10 2006 FUC in eastern Chad mount fresh offensive to get to N'Djamena and oust Chadian President Deby

Apr 11 2006 BBC Chad rebels attack refugee camp - Chad has 12 camps hosting Sudanese refugees from Darfur. A large number of army officers have deserted to join the FUCD, a coalition of rebel groups led by Mahamat Nour from bases in Darfur on Sudan's border with Chad. But Chad's government is refusing to call the attackers rebels and blames Sudan for the incident at the camp. Chad says the assailants were mercenaries supported by Khartoum.

Apr 11 2006 BBC Chadian rebels raid central town

Apr 11 2006 Propaganda war in Chad aimed at sowing fear and panic

Apr 12 2006 BBC Chad rebels 'advance on capital' - The BBC's Stephanie Hancock in N'Djamena says people in the capital are going to work as usual, but are not sending their children to school in case of unrest.

Apr 13 2006 EU calls for calm in Chad

Apr 13 2006 UNHCR alarmed over possible impact of Chad violence on refugees

Apr 13 2006 The Times Analysis: Conflict in Chad has roots in Darfur

Sudan's president calls on all Sudanese to say no to "foreign" troops in Darfur

Addressing a conference of the Sudanese Youth National Union on Wednesday, the president called on all Sudanese to say no to foreign troops in Darfur, Xinhua reported 13 Apr 2006 - excerpt:

"Attempts to intervene in Sudan's affairs would continue unless all Sudanese decided that no foreign soldier would be allowed to set a foot on the Sudanese soil whatever be the justification," said al-Bashir.

"Foreign intervention is but the old colonization cloaked in the new cloth of the suspicious organizations and arms dealers," al-Bashir added.

International non-governmental aid organizations have repeatedly accused the Sudanese authorities of "imposing greater restrictions on relief operations."

Al-Bashir reaffirmed Khartoum's commitment to finding a peaceful and comprehensive political solution to the question of Darfur through negotiations.

In an interview with the Saudi Al-Ekhabariya TV Channel on Wednesday, al-Bashir denounced the suspicious Western attempts to fuel and prolong the conflict in Darfur in order to realize special agenda.

Al-Bashir lauded the role being played by the Arab countries with respect to supporting peace and rehabilitation in Sudan.

Analysis: Conflict in Chad has roots in Darfur

Apr 13 2006 analysis by Jonathan Clayton, Africa correspondent of The Times, says today's attempted military coup in Chad is a result of the blind eye turned to the troubles in Darfur - excerpt:

The Sudanese and Chadian governments have armed the rival militias and in doing so they have let the genie out the bottle. Now, even if they wanted to do so, it is unlikely they could get it back in. At the same time the Sudanese government has prevented the UN from establishing a credible force in the area.

The east of Chad and the Darfur region of western Sudan are effectively the same place - the border between them is arbitrary and the same tribes live on both sides. They have no allegiance to either country, only to their clans.

Why is Sudan accused of backing the rebels?

The Zagawa tribe, the tribe to which Chad's President Deby belongs, was one of the three main tribes involved in the fighting against the Sudanese Government in the early days of the Darfur conflict.

Now the Sudanese has started backing the anti-government rebels in Chad in retaliation. At best, they say that since coming to power in 1990 President Deby has turned a blind eye to anti-Sudan movements in Chad, at worst he supported them and fuelled the conflict.

What is the United Force for Change (FUC)?

The FUC consists of other eastern tribes opposed to the Zagawa tribe of the Chadian President. This is a part of the world which hasn't changed for centuries, so there is historic enmity dating back for centuries, making it an easy recruiting ground for rebels.

They are very keen on deposing President Deby before the election in May. They know perfectly well that he will win - if you are the incumbent you always win - and things will become even more entrenched. Since the President's army is not particularly effective, the militias, presumably with the help of the Sudanese army, have swept across Chad in rapid time to reach the capital.

What would happen if President Deby is overthrown?

It would be very much business as usual. In a way, things in Chad can't get much worse. It will be bad news for the refugees who fled Sudan, they will find themselves under a Government supported by the same figures from whom they initially fled. The major problem is that increased instability in the area would make the aid efforts that are underway even more difficult.

Will the West intervene?

The only joker in the pack is France. It does have quite a large military detachment in Chad and a couple of airstrips. The French may decide that they want to keep President Deby in power, but I don't imagine any other countries will get involved. President Deby is no hero but it maybe a question of "better the devil you know".