Showing posts with label Nile. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nile. Show all posts

Sunday, March 22, 2020

South Sudan: a country on its knees - millions of lives at stake as ‘unity government’ announced


  • “People are tired. Corruption is the medicine of the day.”
  • The last time Kiir and Machar clashed, an estimated 380,000 people perished and nearly two million were displaced in a wave of terror and famine which subsumed the country from December 2013 to October 2018.
  • Both government and opposition forces “intentionally targeted targeted civilians, often on the basis of ethnicity”, reported Amnesty International in a detailed 2018 study of the conflict.
  • While many were killed by gunfire, others were “burned alive in their homes, hung from trees and rafters, or run over with armoured vehicles”. Thousands more were subjected to “rape, gang rape, sexual slavery, sexual mutilation, torture, castration and forced nudity”.
  • It was the worst humanitarian crisis in Africa since the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Read more below.
South Sudan: a country on its knees
Report from The Telegraph.co.uk
By Paul NukiPictures by Simon Townsley
Dated week ending 22 February 2020

Millions of lives at stake as ‘unity government’ announced
After a devastating civil war, life in South Sudan hangs by a thread. Can the world's newest nation find a path to unity? 

There are few places left on earth where mobile phone use is not ubiquitous, but South Sudan is one of them.

Yet in this scarcely developed nation of tukul huts and herdsman there is hardly a family among its 11 million population who is not anxiously awaiting news from the capital Juba.

This Saturday, February 22, is the deadline for President Salva Kiir and his former deputy turned rebel leader Riek Machar to stand down their rival armies and form a “unity government”.

It’s the long awaited centrepiece of a fragile peace accord which paused the country’s five year civil war 16 months ago. Only if the two self-styled ‘big men’ sign is the peace likely to hold. 

With the US threatening sanctions and fatigued aid agencies saying they may pull out, the stakes could hardly be higher.
Much of South Sudan's population of 11 million is anxiously awaiting the outcome of peace talks in Juba

With just 48 hours to go, there were positive noises. "We had a meeting with the president on the outstanding issues. We have agreed to form the government on 22 February”, Machar said on Thursday.

Only a few dare to dream that a deal this weekend would set South Sudan, the world’s newest but fourth least developed nation, on a path to modernity.

A country the size of France, it has only 186 miles (300 km) of paved road and 90 per cent of its population are without access to electricity or clean water. An estimated 60 per cent rely on food dropped by World Food Programme planes and helicopters to survive.  

The best that can be hoped for, say observers, is that a deal will avert fresh military calamity. 

“If they can shake hands it would help cement the peace deal and allow the UN and aid organisations like us to keep things ticking over,” said Geoff Andrews, country director of Medair, a Swiss NGO which has been in the country since 1992 and runs its biggest emergency aid programme.

“We talk about failed states but this is a non-functioning state”, says another NGO. “The things that define a state, its institutions, are virtually non-existent”
Two-year-old Ibrahim weighed only a third of what he should when he arrived at the clinic

He is just one of the severely malnourished children receiving treatment from Swiss NGO Medair
Franco Duoth Diu, deputy governor of Southern Liech State which saw some of the most intense fighting, says that unless a deal is done change will be forced on the rival leaders.

“These two men will be looking at something very different unless they can agree,” he warns. “The pressure is from the international community but also the community here.”

“People are tired. Corruption is the medicine of the day.”

What everyone fears, and many are braced for, is no deal at all. The last time Kiir and Machar clashed, an estimated 380,000 people perished and nearly two million were displaced in a wave of terror and famine which subsumed the country from December 2013 to October 2018.

Both government and opposition forces “intentionally targeted targeted civilians, often on the basis of ethnicity”, reported Amnesty International in a detailed 2018 study of the conflict.

While many were killed by gunfire, others were “burned alive in their homes, hung from trees and rafters, or run over with armoured vehicles”. Thousands more were subjected to “rape, gang rape, sexual slavery, sexual mutilation, torture, castration and forced nudity”.

It was the worst humanitarian crisis in Africa since the 1994 genocide in Rwanda.
Across the country, 99 under-fives die per 1,000 births
A mother stands at the grave of her two-year-old child, who died from diarrhoea
A herder with malnourished cattle

This month the Telegraph travelled extensively in South Sudan to document the humanitarian relief effort in the run up to Saturday’s deadline. 

It’s undoubtedly a country on its knees, aptly described by one commentator as a “kleptocracy gone insolvent”, but also a place full of youthful ambition, its average age just 18.

In a tarpaulin-clad clinic run by Medair on the outskirts of Renk, a market town in the north of the country, dozens of pregnant young women queue for check ups. 

They have been tempted in by a volunteer network of local women who preach the benefits of antenatal checks and good hygiene in a bid to cut child deaths and deaths in childbirth; a sort of Avon for health which reaches 10 or more walking or “footing” hours into the bush.

The country’s maternal mortality rate at 789 deaths per 100,000 live births, is the fifth highest in the world - 87 times higher than in the UK where the corresponding figure is just nine.
Macca, a 30 year old mother of seven, is six months pregnant and only half jokes she would like 15 children in total. “I’m replacing the ones lost in the war”, she says, “I’m working for my country.”

She is not unusual. Women in South Sudan have an average of nearly five children, largely because the ruthless economics of the place demand it. 

“I want to have 10 children so I have enough if some die,” says Amel, a 23-year-old mother of two. “Without children who will look after us?”

A few metres from the antenatal clinic, the toll of infant mortality is all too evident. In a “stabilisation” room Medair staff are busy reviving distressingly listless toddlers, several of whom have been brought in only a hours away from death. 

Across the country, 99 under-fives die per 1,000 births, compared to just four in the UK. In Renk where acute childhood malnutrition is running at 32 per cent, the odds are even worse. 
Since the end of 2013, conflict has cost almost 400,000 lives and left six million people, of a population of 11 million, desperately hungry

“Malaria, diarrhea or pneumonia are what kills most but it’s because they are malnourished that they are so vulnerable,” says Jimmy Freazer who runs the unit.    

Two-year-old Ibrahim is just a third of his proper weight and has all the signs of a child on the brink. His feet and stomach are swollen, his mouth is white with thrush and his eyes are glazed and unresponsive. His baby sister is almost as big as him having won the battle for his mother’s breast.

“The sudden weaning of children can be a problem,” says Freazer, “Too many stop breastfeeding when they become pregnant. They think they need to save it for the next one.”

At the other end of room, Achol, a little girl of just eight months, is considerably worse. She has a drip in her arm and otherwise still, her tiny chest is heaving.  

Her mother, Nayana, is exhausted from trying to stem a tide of vomit and diarrhoea. The fear in her eyes is so intense that you want to duck her gaze. We leave her - wrongly as it turns out - to what we assume is her infant’s last few hours.
Sudanese civilians collect water form the Nile, in Renk district. Dirty water is a primary cause of disease

When South Sudan won independence from the north in 2011, its people made the fatal mistake of assuming that with independence comes freedom. 

The new government, while promising democracy, adopted the oppressive security infrastructure of the north and set about dividing what little wealth the country had between themselves.

There have yet to be elections and the International Monetary Fund calculates that real incomes in South Sudan today are about 70 per cent lower than in 2011.

Despite taking over about 75 per cent of old Sudan’s oil reserves, the vast majority of the population still relies on subsistence agriculture and gathers charcoal for fuel.

Worse, given the country’s reliance on food aid, the only large scale farms are said to be owned by government acolytes and export much of what they produce abroad. 
A boy plays in the Nile's dirty water
An abandoned ambulance at the military hospital in Renk
A boy with his donkey, carrying water to sell

The Nile runs through the centre of the country and, with modest investment, could be used to irrigate millions of hectares of fertile scrubland. 

But the only machines evident are old Blackstone pumps made in Stamford, England, a decaying relic of the time Britain held sway here. Even then much of the produce was exported.  

“This should be the food basket of the region”, an agricultural adviser with the International Red Cross says. “On the up side, what is grown is organic and the land retains its potential.”

As the deadline for the formation of a unity government looms, rebels in t-shirts and sandals marched alongside government troops outside Juba earlier this week in a display meant to reassure international monitors that progress is being made.

Then on Thursday, Machar said he had agreed to form a unity government by Saturday's deadline. Kiir confirmed the agreement, adding that he will appoint Machar as first vice president on Friday.

"We are going to discuss the security arrangement for the protection of all opposition forces and members," Kiir added.
Eight-month-old Achol with her mother. The malnourished infant is being treated for vomiting and diarrhoea
Just five days after she was admitted to the clinic, Achol is looking much better

There remain two key obstacles to a lasting deal, say analysts. The two rival armies need to be merged into a single force and control over the country’s oil revenues need to be split equitably, ensuring a balance of power.

While the big men quarrel and the nation waits, basic medical science and good care were working their magic in Medair’s health clinic.

Only five days after her arrival, little Achol was sitting up, putting on weight and playing with her delighted mother. 

“I would like to see a point in South Sudan where girls are more likely to complete their education than die in childbirth,” said Natalie Page, Medair’s senior health adviser in South Sudan.

Perhaps, just perhaps, Achol will live to see that dream become a reality if a deal is done this weekend.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Janjaweed and gunfire in Khartoum Sudan, death toll rising, bodies in Nile, Yasir Arman beaten and arrested

SADLY the security situation in Sudan has deteriorated rapidly over the past few days. Various news reports say the death toll related to protests in Sudan's capital Khartoum is rapidly rising: 100+ deaths including 40+ bodies floating in the Nile, 500+ wounded. Protestors dispersed, streets emptying, situation volatile.

An Associated Press (AP) report 5 June 2019 says the death toll over the past three days is 108 and at least 509 people had been wounded. Here are some extracts. Note, AP writer Bassam Hatoum reported this story in Khartoum and AP writer Samy Magdy reported from Cairo: 

"The reported discovery of the bodies in the Nile suggested that Monday's violent dispersal of the protest movement's main sit-in camp, outside military headquarters, was even bloodier than initially believed. The attack on the camp was led by a notorious paramilitary unit called the Rapid Support Forces, along with other troops who waded into the camp, opening fire and beating protesters.

During the mayhem, the Doctors Committee said witnesses reported seeing bodies loaded into military vehicles to be dumped into the river. The camp was not far from the Blue Nile, just upstream from where it joins the White Nile and then flows north through Sudan and Egypt to the Mediterranean.

The committee said in a statement that a day earlier, militiamen of the Rapid Support Forces were seen pulling 40 bodies from the river and taking them away. It said it was not known where they were taken.

One activist, Amal al-Zein, said the number could be even higher. She said activists and private citizens had pulled dozens more bodies from the Nile in areas near the sit-in and took them to a hospital morgue. "Some bodies have wounds from bullets, others seemed to have beaten and thrown in the Nile," she said."
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Arman beaten and arrested by Sudanese security forces

BRITAIN'S Ambassador in Khartoum, Sudan, Mr Irfan Siddiq posted news on his Twitter page @FCOIrfan today (Wed 5 June) confirming that Mr Yasir Arman, leader of SPLM-N(Agar) has been beaten and arrested by Sudanese security forces. Click here to see the Ambassador's tweet 
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HERE is a news analysis by BBC Africa editor Fergal Keane OBE. I have reprinted it in full because it is so well researched with reliable photos and film footage showing the gunfire in Khartoum. Today's technology makes it so easy for anyone to alter reports, photos and film for circulating online as propaganda. The BBC uses sophisticated technology to carefully check and verify news, images and film clips before publishing.
Another reason for reprinting it in full is this: in the weeks, months and years ahead it will slip out of the BBC's headlines while here at Sudan Watch it will remain alive with a spotlight shining brightly on the truth.
Rest in peace all who were murdered by their own government + + +

Sudan crisis: Return of the feared Janjaweed
By Fergal Keane
BBC's Africa editor
Tuesday 4 June 2019



















Protesters set ablaze tyres to try to stop Sudan's security forces on Monday 
AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Sudan's military has faced mounting international condemnation for its violent attack on protesters which reportedly left at least 30 dead. But there were clear signs this was likely to happen.

Even when the crowds were at their largest and most joyous there was a sense of looming danger.

You did not have to walk far from the sit-in to encounter the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) lounging on their pick-up trucks.

Unlike the regular army these militiamen rarely responded to greetings or if they did it was with a non-committal nod, no hint of a smile.

It did not surprise me.

I remembered them from Darfur 14 years before. There they were known as the Janjaweed and became notorious for atrocities inflicted on the civilian population.

In 2005 I saw them beat and terrorise civilians in a camp for the displaced and I interviewed the survivors of torture and rape.

Now they have brought their violence to the streets of the capital.

This is the sound of gunfire in Khartoum, Sudan...

Sudan military attacks protestors

Sudan has been driven backwards by the conspiracy of a military elite whose priority is the survival of their power and privilege.

The Transitional Military Council has scrapped the agreements reached with the opposition Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) under the guise of speeding up the transition to full democratic elections.

These are to be held within nine months.

The plan is more than likely a fiction, not designed to produce civilian rule or anything like it.

There is ample precedent in Africa and elsewhere these days for elections which go through the motions of democracy but deliver none of its substance.

Don't be surprised to see senior figures from the TMC "retiring" from the military and standing as civilian candidates.

What will not change is military control of Sudanese life.

In part the FFC and its civil society allies are victims of their own dizzying success in the early days of the revolution.

Within 24 hours they toppled President Omar al-Bashir and the military man who led the coup against him.

Thirty years of rule appeared to have been vanquished.
The sight of the sit-in drew activists from all spheres of Sudanese life. It became a citadel of freedom.

The atmosphere was intoxicating.

People debated and sang and produced art.



















GETTY IMAGES

They produced manifestos on women's rights, media freedom, justice and the economy, and much more besides.

Yet diversity was also a vulnerability.

Everybody agreed that civilian rule was the essential demand.

But there were inevitable differences over the specifics of achieving that aim: what should the timeframe be, what would be the balance between military and civilian representatives, which personalities representing which groupings would take positions in any transitional arrangements?

None of these debates were in themselves fatal to the cause.

But they highlighted the difficulties of being a "people's movement" compared to an established political party with the structures and internal discipline to make swift changes at the negotiating table.

Hard line take control

There was another problem.

As the shockwaves of Mr Bashir's overthrow dissipated the old politics of Sudan re-emerged.

Parties and personalities who had been suppressed under dictatorship were determined not to be left out if political power was being shared.

This allowed the military to characterise the protesters as simply one of the groups who were part of the negotiations, ignoring the fact that there would have been no negotiations without the demonstrations.

Delaying or dissembling in the name of inclusivity became a tactic.

Once the military had recovered from the confusion around Mr Bashir's overthrow it regrouped and the most hard line elements took control.

This explains the pre-eminence of the RSF commander, Mohammed "Hemedti" Hamadan whose personal ruthlessness in Darfur always made him the most likely leader of a counter-revolution.

Unlike many of the military elite "Hemedti" is an outsider.

From a rural background he has no family ties or sentimental affiliation with the young middle class protesting on the streets of the Khartoum.

Divided world

The military also enjoys another big advantage.

This is an age of international division.

The notion of an "international community" which might pressure the regime is a fantasy.

The world is now governed by a collection of interests - occasionally they are complimentary, more often they are in competition.

The UN Security Council is not a forum where any kind of concerted action on Sudan might be approved.

Russia and China would block any move to increase sanctions on Khartoum.

The condemnation from US National Security Advisor, John Bolton - he called the Khartoum violence "abhorrent" - will only mean something if the US demands that its regional allies - Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - exert pressure on the Sudanese military.

For now it is hard to imagine President Donald Trump picking up the phone to Cairo or Riyadh and insisting on a swift transition to civilian rule.

Mr Trump has other priorities like the Mexican border, Venezuela, Iran and the trade war with China.





















Sudanese forces tried to disperse the sit-in Monday 
ASHRAF SHAZLY

What about an African solution?

The African Union (AU) was an early supporter of civilian rule after the fall of Mr Bashir but the AU's actions around the election results in the Democratic Republic of Congo in January are cautionary: the AU first criticised what many observers saw as a fix but then rowed back.

In recent weeks the African body has spoken of the need for international actors not to meddle in Sudanese affairs.

Bear in mind too that the AU's current chairperson is Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi who is himself a symbol of military usurpation of power.

The Sudan crisis exposes the dominant reality of the international scene.

Force can have its way without consequence if the killers and torturers represent a valuable enough asset to other stronger powers - in strategic, ideological, intelligence or economic terms.

It is possible that President Trump will make a stand on Sudan and pressure his allies to act, that the AU will threaten to expel and isolate Sudan, that more moderate elements in the military will emerge and challenge "Hemedti" and his supporters. Possible. But certainly not probable.

I remember speaking with a leading activist at the demonstrations back in April.

He told me that "the sit-in is the only card we have. That is why we have to maintain it."



















Sudanese people had been protesting for many weeks by this point in May, well after Mr Bashir had been forced out of office 
GETTY IMAGES

But now that the sit-in is smashed where does the opposition go?

The peaceful revolutionaries are beaten and traumatised.

It is impossible to say now whether the Forces of Freedom and Change can come back as a street-driven force.

There have been calls for civil disobedience and strikes.

Any such will likely be met with ruthless violence.

What will not change, in fact what has been deepened, is the alienation of people from their rulers.



















Demonstrators were still protesting peacefully at the beginning of May at a sit-in outside the army's headquarters 
GETTY IMAGES

Repression may work as a strategy for now but not indefinitely.

Sudan is now dependant on powerful neighbours for its economic survival and beset by internal divisions.

Dependency on the Egyptians and Saudis will rankle with many Sudanese beyond the protesters, adding a more overtly nationalist dimension to the current crisis.

The generals have succeeded in smashing the protest but their troubles may only be starting.

Road to transition












Image copyright 
AFP
  • 19 December 2018 - Protests erupt after fuel and bread price rises announced
  • 22 February 2019 - President Bashir dissolves the government
  • 24 February - Protests continue as security forces respond by firing live bullets
  • 6 April - Activists begin sit-in at military headquarters, vowing not to move until Mr Bashir steps down
  • 11 April - Army generals announce that Mr Bashir has been toppled but sit-in continues as people demand civilian rule
  • 20 April - Talks between the military rulers and civilian representatives begin
  • 13 May - Shooting outside the military headquarters leaves six people dead
  • 14 May - Military and civilians announce a deal on a three-year transition period
  • 16 May - Talks postponed as military demands some barricades are removed
  • 3 June - Activists announce the suspension of talks with the military, accusing them of using force to disperse their sit-in
More on Sudan
View the original analysis by BBC Africa Editor Fergal Keane OBE Wed 5 June 2019 here:
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Tweets about infiltration by rogue groups - situation extremely volatile - protest leaders calling for international mediation

Snippets from BBC Africa Editor Fergal Keane’s Twitter page @fergalkeane47 Wed 5 Jun 2019 (Sudan Watch Ed: yellow highlighting is mine):

This could point mean there is divergence between the two. But, the fact that Hemdti is talking to his soldiers about rouge groups impersonating them is more worrying. Is he psyching them for more, or is he serious and there is another militia that he does not control.!

Very mixed messages from Sudan's military today. As General Burhan apologises + calls for talks, his deputy Mohammed "Hemeti" Hamadan is on Sudan TV telling his RSF militia that protesters had been infiltrated by rogue elements + drug dealers and firm action was warranted

#SudanUprising #Saudi statement of “deep concern” and condolences to families of  victims. Says KSA “affirms the importance of resuming the dialogue between the various parties in Sudan to fulfill the aspirations of the brotherly Sudanese people.” 1/3

This may explain regime offer of talks, indicate pressure at international and regional level is being applied on Khartoum. It might - a big might - stop a recurrence of large scale killing. But honestly with the current Sudanese regime there are no guarantees. 2/3

The situation is extremely volatile. Trust in military offer of talks will be minimal. Protest leaders have called for international mediation. But that is a huge step for the regime to accept. 3/3
6:01 am - 5 Jun 2019
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Sudan crisis: 40 bodies pulled from Nile, opposition says

Residents in Khartoum told the BBC they were living in fear as members of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) roamed the streets. The paramilitary unit - formerly known as the Janjaweed militia - gained notoriety in the Darfur conflict in western Sudan in 2003.

"Forty bodies of our noble martyrs were recovered from the river Nile yesterday," the Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors said in a Facebook post.

An official from the group told the BBC that they had witnessed and verified the bodies in hospitals and that the death toll now stood at 100.

A former security officer quoted by Channel 4's Sudanese journalist Yousra Elbagir said that some of those thrown into the Nile had been beaten or shot to death and others hacked to death with machetes.
"It was a massacre," the unnamed source said.

Read the full analysis by BBC Africa Editor Fergal Keane Wed 5 June 2019 here:
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Finally got in touch my intelligence source (a defected NISS officer) he says: 

"This is all a planned attack by the RSF, NISS, People's Police militia, People's Security Militia, Defence Miltia, Student Security Militia & AbdelHai Islamist Militia. They were a force of 10,000."