Ali Karti, SG of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, widely seen as a mastermind of Sudan's war, has now announced a truce with RSF will never be accepted

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Dame Rosalind Marsden in the following analysis 'Sudan's forgotten war: A new diplomatic push is needed' says there needs to be a concerted diplomatic push at the highest level: "the aim must be to change the calculations of the generals and counter the influence of hard-line Islamists from the Bashir-era who are blocking negotiations. This requires pressing for a coordinated mediation process to prevent warring parties’ forum-shopping between mediation initiatives; targeting the financial flows and military supplies fuelling the war; and supporting efforts to unify those Sudanese working for the goal of democratic transition."

It is difficult to see why Dame Rosalind is recommending "a coordinated mediation process" as even she says "Ali Karti, the Secretary-General of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, who is widely seen as a mastermind of the war, has now announced that a truce with the RSF will never be accepted." 

Many Sudanese civilians online are saying they don't want Sudan to be led by Gen. Burhan and his Islamist regime nor by Hemeti and his terrorist militia. I've not seen a solution. Maybe the people could join hands in peace.

Note, in her analysis Dame Rosalind rightly publicises the Emergency Response Rooms, aka ERRs, by saying: "Donors will also have to step up to address the spiralling food crisis, by reducing the UN funding gap and supporting grassroots first responders in the Emergency Response Rooms.' 

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From Chatham House

EXPERT COMMENT
By Dame Rosalind Marsden

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme 

Email Rosalind  Twitter

Dated Thursday, 14 March 2024 - here is a copy in full:

Sudan’s forgotten war: A new diplomatic push is needed

After nearly a year of devastating conflict, there is little sign of a ceasefire. Concerted high-level international pressure is needed to change the calculations of the generals and support a democratic transition.

Image — People rally in Wad Madani, Sudan, in December 2023. 

(Photo by AFP via Getty Images)

On 8 March, the UN Security Council adopted a UK-drafted resolution calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the month of Ramadan, a sustainable resolution to the conflict through dialogue, compliance with international humanitarian law and unhindered humanitarian access.

Eleven months into the war, this is the first time that the Council has been able to agree on a resolution. The mandate of the UN Panel of Experts that monitors the sanctions regime in Darfur was also renewed by the Council. Does this signify hope that efforts to end the war might gather momentum? Or is Sudan likely to face a protracted conflict?

The war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fatah Al Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as ‘Hemedti’) is a competition for power and resources between rival factions of the regular armed forces.

But it is also rooted in Sudan’s long history of internal conflict, marginalization of the peripheries and lack of accountability for atrocity crimes. Both the SAF’s officer corps and the RSF are creations of former President Omer al-Bashir’s regime. 

Each has shown disregard for the lives of Sudanese civilians by waging war in densely populated urban areas. The scale of destruction is unprecedented in Sudan’s modern history.

With the world’s attention focused on Gaza and Ukraine, the war receives woefully little high-level political, parliamentary or international media attention, raising serious questions about double standards in dealing with global crises, particularly conflicts in Africa.

A humanitarian catastrophe

Sudan is suffering from a humanitarian disaster, with a looming famine and the world’s biggest displacement crisis: 8 million people are newly displaced inside or outside the country, in addition to over 3 million displaced by previous conflicts.

The head of the World Food Programme has warned that the war risks creating the world’s largest hunger crisis. Yet the UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan for Sudan is only 4 per cent funded.

The conflict has the potential to destabilize already fragile neighbouring countries, create large new migration flows to Europe, and attract extremist groups.

Meanwhile, regional actors are fighting a proxy war in the country, giving military, financial and political support to the warring parties. 

The involvement of Russia and Iran has given the war a geopolitical dimension linked to Putin’s war in Ukraine – partly funded with Sudanese gold – and competition for influence on the Red Sea coast.

Food as a weapon of war

Both RSF and SAF forces have used hunger as a weapon of war. The RSF has looted humanitarian warehouses and besieged cities. 

The SAF-controlled Humanitarian Aid Commission has systematically withheld authorization for crossline movement of life-saving aid to RSF-controlled areas.

One limited outcome from recent international pressure has been the partial reversal of the SAF’s ban on cross-border humanitarian access from Chad into Darfur. The de facto SAF authorities in Port Sudan have agreed to open limited border crossings from Chad and South Sudan. However, MSF International have criticized this as a partial solution at best.

The UN will need to monitor implementation to ensure neutrality in the distribution of aid, while intensifying pressure for unhindered cross-border and crossline humanitarian access.

Donors will also have to step up to address the spiralling food crisis, by reducing the UN funding gap and supporting grassroots first responders in the Emergency Response Rooms.

Growing pressure for a cessation of hostilities

The fact that the UN Secretary-General, the UN Security Council, the African Union, and the League of Arab States joined forces to call for a Ramadan truce, represents a significant increase in pressure on the warring parties.

Nevertheless, Ramadan has started with further fierce fighting. It is unclear how the Security Council expected a truce to take effect without prior diplomatic engagement to agree an implementation and monitoring mechanism. 

Command and control is fragmented on both sides and the warring parties have failed to abide by previous temporary truces negotiated through the Saudi/US-sponsored Jeddah Platform.

Moreover, Sudan’s security state has no history of respecting the month of Ramadan: the current war began during the holy month on 15 April 2023, and peaceful protestors were brutally dispersed in Khartoum on 3 June 2019.

Burhan cautiously commended the Secretary-General’s proposal for a Ramadan truce, but the Islamist-controlled Ministry of Foreign Affairs and SAF’s General Yasir al Atta poured cold water on the idea by announcing a list of preconditions amounting to surrender by the RSF.

8 million

Number of newly displaced people as a result of the war in Sudan.

This response follows a familiar pattern: any indication by Burhan of readiness to negotiate is immediately negated by Islamist elements of the Bashir regime, who hope to return to power on the back of an SAF victory. 

Ali Karti, the Secretary-General of Sudan’s Islamic Movement, who is widely seen as a mastermind of the war, has now announced that a truce with the RSF will never be accepted.

Both sides still seem determined to gain the upper hand militarily. The SAF, hitherto on the back foot, has launched an offensive to regain lost territory in Omdurman and Gezira state, supported by Iranian drones, Islamist militias, the Special Operations Forces of the Bashir-era Intelligence Service, former Darfuri rebels and armed civilians. 

The RSF, whose human rights violations have alienated much of the population, welcomed the UN’s call for a truce, but are also engaged in recruitment, particularly among Arab tribes in Darfur.

The longer the war continues, the greater the risk that it will evolve into a full-scale ethnicized civil war, and that the country will be engulfed by famine.

A concerted diplomatic push

Concerted diplomacy at the highest level is therefore urgently needed. The aim must be to change the calculations of the generals and counter the influence of hard-line Islamists from the Bashir-era who are blocking negotiations.

This requires pressing for a coordinated mediation process to prevent warring parties’ forum-shopping between mediation initiatives; targeting the financial flows and military supplies fuelling the war; and supporting efforts to unify those Sudanese working for the goal of democratic transition.

Civilians are the main victims of the war and should be involved in each stage of any peace process. They, not the generals, should shape Sudan’s post-war transition. Those responsible for atrocities must be held accountable.  

There has been some recent evolution in regional dynamics. Egypt and the UAE, who have been backing opposite sides, co-facilitated RSF/SAF talks in Manama in January, alongside the US, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

There are also signs of a stronger international commitment to active diplomatic engagement. The AU has created a High-Level Panel on Sudan, while the US has appointed a dedicated Special Envoy. The Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General has been empowered by the Security Council to complement and coordinate regional peace efforts.

But a strong push is now needed to silence the guns and push the warring parties to resume talks under the Jeddah Platform, preferably in an expanded format. More visible, high-level political commitment is badly needed, if the conflict in Sudan is not to remain a forgotten war.

This article was produced with support from the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme, funded by UK International Development. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.

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Postscript from Sudan Watch Editor:

Dame Rosalind Marsden was the EU Special Representative for Sudan from September 2010 until October 2013. Before joining the EU, she had a long career in the British diplomatic service, including postings as Consul-General in Basra, British Ambassador to Sudan and British Ambassador to Afghanistan. 

She has also served as Head of the United Nations Department and Director (Asia-Pacific) in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London. 

Earlier in her career she served twice in the British Embassy in Tokyo and spent two years on secondment to the private sector, working in the corporate finance department of an investment bank. 

She received her BA in Modern History from Somerville College, Oxford and her D.Phil from St Antony’s College, Oxford.

View original: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/sudans-forgotten-war-new-diplomatic-push-needed

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Related 

Chatham House - 18 December 2023 

How a transnational approach can better manage the conflict in Sudan

Approaching conflict as a national issue sidelines a complex web of transnational influences and threatens prospects for sustainable peace.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/12/how-transnational-approach-can-better-manage-conflict-sudan

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UN News - 3 February 2024

Youth-led ‘emergency rooms’ shine rays of hope in war-torn Sudan

© ERR Emergency response rooms are finding innovative approaches to providing rapid assistance to millions facing war in Sudan. 

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/02/1146187

END

Sudan: UK has circulated a draft UN resolution calling for an immediate end of hostilities ahead of Ramadan

"THE UK has circulated a draft UN resolution calling for an immediate end of hostilities in Sudan ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. 

The British draft resolution expresses ‘grave concern over the spreading violence and the catastrophic and deteriorating humanitarian situation’. 

With Ramadan expected to begin around Sunday, depending on the sighting of the new moon, the council is expected to vote quickly on the resolution, probably on Friday. 

The latest draft on a Sudan ceasefire was circulated on the same day the head of the UN food agency warned that the Sudan conflict “risks triggering the world’s largest hunger crisis” as global attention is focused on the Israel-Hamas war. 

The proposed UN resolution calls on all parties to remove obstructions and allow “full, rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access” including across Sudan’s borders and across conflict lines.

The draft also urges strengthened co-ordination of several regional and international efforts “to facilitate an end to the conflict and to restore a lasting inclusive civilian-led democratic transition.” 

The US is negotiating on its own proposed Gaza resolution with the latest draft calling for a “ceasefire of roughly six weeks in Gaza together with the release of all hostages” as soon as Israel and Hamas agree. The draft makes no mention of Ramadan."  Read more.

From The Irish News

By Edith M Lederer, Associated Press

Dated Thursday, March 07, 2024 at 3:36AM GMT

UN resolution calling for end to hostilities in Sudan ahead of Ramadan

The British draft resolution expresses ‘grave concern over the spreading violence and the catastrophic and deteriorating humanitarian situation’.

Full story: https://www.irishnews.com/news/world/un-resolution-calling-for-end-to-hostilities-in-sudan-ahead-of-ramadan-4EQJ622VTNJ5ZHTECA4OWM3DF4/

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Related 

From Sudan Tribune - undated, here is a copy in full: 

Fikra for Studies and Development urges Security Council to endorse UK draft resolution for ceasefire in Sudan

Fikra for Studies and Development welcomes the UK draft resolution submitted to the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire in Sudan. We hope that the Security Council will adopt this resolution under Chapter VII of the UN Charter and that it will include clear and effective enforcement, implementation, and monitoring mechanisms to ensure its application on the ground.

The resolution should emphasize the need to adhere to the principles of the Jeddah Declaration for the Protection of Civilians, signed by the warring parties on May 11, 2023. It should also reaffirm the Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) principle adopted by the UN in 2005, to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid and the cessation of violations against Sudanese civilians, especially in Darfur, Khartoum, and Al Gezira states.

If adopted by the Security Council and successfully implemented, this resolution will pave the way for a permanent ceasefire, opening the door for a rational political process to end the civil war that has been ongoing in Sudan since April 15, 2023.

Fikra for Studies and Development calls on the members of the Security Council to vote to pass this resolution. We also call on the African Union, the Arab League, and IGAD to support this resolution by urgently contacting all members of the Security Council and encourage them to vote in favor of this resolution. We further call on the five permanent members of the Security Council not to use their veto power to block the passage of this resolution.

We reiterate our call to the UN and its humanitarian agencies to declare a state of severe famine of phase 5 at the national level in Sudan and to address the humanitarian situation accordingly.

The current situation in Sudan represents the largest humanitarian catastrophe of our time, in terms of the number of displaced and refugee people, the widespread famine, the severe food shortages, and the horrors faced by the Sudanese people due to the ongoing war. The international community must act now effectively to stop this ongoing suffering.

View original: https://sudantribune.com/article282996/

END

Sudan: Malik Agar explains his 3-day visit to S. Sudan

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Here is a copy of two reports by Mr Malik Agar Eyre, Deputy Chairman of Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council. 

The reports, posted at X and date stamped Feb 14, 2024 are separated into short posts accompanied by photos taken using Mr Malik's phone. 

The reports are in full because news outlets (Sudan Tribune is one of the worst offenders) have a habit of stealing other people's work, rearranging words and passing it off as their own research and news without credits.

It is mean spirited and makes my blood boil. Professional journalists and writers spend hours researching, writing, editing, fact-checking and polishing their reports under strict guidelines. What's troubling is that news outlets take it upon themselves to twist words to suit their own agenda.

I've followed Sudan Tribune for 20 years. Not sure if it's still based in France. Its ex deputy editor in chief Wasil Ali@wasilalitaha is a prolific poster at X. 

He's quick witted and can be hilarious. 2 photos (pictured) on his page at X suit his cheeky, playful, irreverent, strong personality. Thanks for the laughs.

Wasil Ali@wasilalitaha

Also, below is a copy of Mr Malik Agar's bio at Wikipedia. Note, under the heading of 'Ideology' it says: "Agar rejects President Omar al-Bashir's vision of an Arab-Islamic state, and has argued instead for a multicultural civil democracy". I saw footage of Mr Agar walking to/from a plane during below mentioned trip, he appeared to have trouble walking like he was in pain.

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Post from X microblogging platform (formerly Twitter) split into 4 posts

By Malik Agar Eyre | مالك عقار اير @MalikAgarEyre 

Date stamped 5:56 PM · Feb 14, 2024 - here is a full copy, showing splits:

I went on an official working visit to the State of South Sudan on February 12, 2024 for the purpose of meeting with His Excellency the President of the Republic, Salva Kiir. The Minister of Finance, Dr. Jibril Ibrahim, accompanied me during the first meeting with the President, which touched on issues concerning the two countries. Our meeting was renewed this afternoon.  1/4

I gave him an explanation about the current military positions and explained to him the extent of the progress made by the armed forces and the specific strikes that the army carried out on the rebel forces.

In the conversation, we touched on the Sudanese position on regional initiatives from the African Union and IGAD 2/4

I explained to him the reasons for freezing our membership in IGAD, and he understood this position well. We also discussed the situation and the political movement that had occurred recently.

The talk about the Jeddah platform was at the end of the agenda of our meeting, and I assured the president that returning to the Jeddah platform is linked to the rebel forces implementing what was agreed upon. 3/4

From ending the occupation of citizens’ homes, among others. At the conclusion of the meeting, we renewed our commitment to resolving the problems of African countries within the African House. I renewed our confidence in the state of South Sudan and praised the treatment they received of the Sudanese coming from the war zones in Sudan.

May God protect Sudan and the people of Sudan 4/4

View original: https://twitter.com/MalikAgarEyre/status/1757826186254700549

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Post from X microblogging platform (formerly Twitter) split into 8 posts

By Malik Agar Eyre | مالك عقار اير @MalikAgarEyre 

Date stamped 7:51 PM · Feb 14, 2024 - here is a full copy, showing splits:

Today, my visit to the State of South Sudan, which lasted for three days, concluded with two separate meetings, the first meeting included a group of ambassadors and heads of missions of the Troika countries and the European Union in South Sudan 1/8

followed by another meeting that included African ambassadors in South Sudan and the representative of the African Union in South Sudan. As well as the Ambassador of Sudan in Juba, Jamal Malik 2/8

where a short film documenting the crimes and violations of the rebel Rapid Support Forces was presented, exposing the killings, rape of women, the ethnic targeting of citizens, the destruction of infrastructure and other violations in the long list of atrocities 3/8

committed by the rebel forces in violation of the international humanitarian law and the International human rights Law.

We’ve also touched on the stages of the development of the rapid support forces from the Janjaweed forces to support forces called 4/8

the border guards and then to rebel rapid support forces in 2023, and i assured them that the government of Sudan is open and working to alleviate the suffering of the Sudan and end the war in a way that preserves the country's sovereignty, unity and national security. 5/8

I’ve also stressed that it is not possible to talk about any political process under the bangs of cannons and bullets, and that the attempts made by some now are nothing but a shot outside the goal, which will not achieve any result, and 6/8

that the slogans of the rebel forces, that is bringing democracy and fighting Islamists have failed before the test of international humanitarian law and international human rights law through the series of violations committed by them in all the areas they entered in Sudan. 7/8

I concluded the meeting with alerting of the consequences of what will happen in the Horn of Africa region in the event of the collapse of Sudan and the details of the impact of such catastrophe on the entire region.

May God protect Sudan and the people of Sudan 8/8

View original: https://twitter.com/MalikAgarEyre/status/1757855209412264384

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HERE is a bio of Mr Malik Agar from Wikipedia Friday, 16 Feb 2024:

Malik Agar is a Sudanese politician and former insurgent leader who was active in the insurgency in Blue Nile state. Since 2023, he has been the deputy chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, Sudan's ruling military junta.

Early life

Malik Agar was born Nganyofa Agar Eyre Nganyofa to an Ingessana chief in Blue Nile State. He did not know he was a Muslim until he was eight. His headteacher gave him the name "Malik" and told him he was a Muslim. From then on, he was called "Malik Agar Eyre"

Second Sudanese Civil War

Agar joined the Sudanese armed opposition shortly after the beginning of the Second Sudanese Civil War in 1983. 

In the 1990s, he was the commander of a section of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) military forces along the Ethiopia–Sudan border south of the Blue Nile to Geissan. SPLM units under his command captured the towns of Kurmuk and Qaissan in 1997.

Agar was close to John Garang, and shared his goal of overthrowing the Government of Sudan, as opposed to fighting for the secession of South Sudan. 

After Garang's death, Agar, along with others who shared a desire for a revolution in Sudan, were marginalised by the new SPLM leadership. Agar expressed his disapproval of the secession of South Sudan to a US official in 2009, stating that it would cause the eventual splintering of the rest of Sudan.

He was elected governor of Blue Nile State in the Republic of the Sudan in April 2010. Agar was one of the few high-profile members of the Sudanese opposition to run in the election, and was the only non-National Congress Party (NCP) candidate to win a governorship. Agar defeated the NCP candidate, Farah Ibrahim Mohamed Al-Aggar, by 108,119 to 99,417 votes.

In February 2011 Malik Agar also became chairman of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement–North, the part of the SPLM that operates in northern Sudan. The southern portion of the SPLM became a separate political party in South Sudan when the country seceded from the Republic of Sudan in July 2011.

On 2 September, Agar was deposed as governor on the orders of President Omar al-Bashir. He fled to the southern part of the state and was reportedly planning a counterattack. He warned that the Sudan–SPLM conflict may ignite a wider Sudanese civil war.

In February 2012 Agar helped found the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF); a coalition of Sudanese opposition groups that aims to overthrow the Sudanese government and replace it with a democracy.^[4] In February 2012, Agar was elected president of the SRF.

On 2 February 2021, he was appointed as a member of the Sovereignty Council of Sudan.

Ideology

Agar rejects President Omar al-Bashir's vision of an Arab-Islamic state, and has argued instead for a multicultural civil democracy.

Read more, including references, at Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malik_Agar

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Related

Radio Dabanga English website

South Sudan president discusses civil bloc outcomes with Minawi

Dated Wednesday, 14 February 2024. 14:29 JUBA - excerpts:

Consultative sessions aimed at reaching an end to the war in Sudan concluded in Juba, the capital of South Sudan, on Monday. In attendance were several Sudanese political and civil blocs, a delegation of which met with South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit on Monday. 

Moataz El Fahl, a leader in the Forces for Freedom and Change-Democratic Bloc (FFC-DB) and Secretary-General of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), told Dabanga in an interview that the meeting concluded with the “formation of a mini-mechanism for communication with the Sovereignty Council, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and other political and civil forces”. 

The meeting included several political and civil blocs, most notably the FFC-DB, the National Movement Forces coalition, and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N Agar), led by Sovereignty Council Vice President Malik Agar.

South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit meets with a Sudanese delegation in Juba, the capital of South Sudan, on Monday (Photo: @ArkoMinawi via X)

Full story: https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/south-sudan-president-discusses-civil-bloc-outcomes-with-minawi

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Sudan Watch - February 14, 2024

Darfur tribal leaders agree with Sudanese Sheikh Musa Hilal to lead initiative to stop war in Sudan

A civil delegation of tribal leaders in Darfur states announced that it has agreed with the head of the Revolutionary Awakening Council, Sheikh Musa Hilal, to lead a national initiative to stop the war between the army and the Rapid Support.

The delegation, which included the principals of the tribes of Tarjum, Fallata and Rizeigat and notables of a number of tribes in the states of South, East, Central and West Darfur, visited Sheikh Musa Hilal in the suburb of Mistriha in North Darfur state, and the delegation spent about a week during which he held several meetings with notables of the region.

Full story: https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/02/darfur-tribal-leaders-agree-with.html

END