Britain to blacklist Russia Wagner group as terrorists - Mercenaries given same status as Isis and al-Qaeda

Britain is poised to formally proscribe the Wagner group of mercenaries as a terrorist organisation to increase pressure on Russia

Proscription would make it a criminal offence to belong to Wagner, attend its meetings, encourage support for it or carry its logo in public, putting it on the same footing as groups such as Islamic State and al-Qaeda

It would also impose financial sanctions, which would be significant because the group and all its members would be barred from using UK courts to silence journalists and campaigners. Officials said it would have implications for Wagner’s ability to raise money if any funds went through British financial institutions

More recently, there have been fears the group could try to expand its presence in Sudan as the country slides towards civil war

Read more from The Times

By Steven Swinford, Political Editor 

Matt Dathan, Home Affairs Editor

George Grylls, Defence Reporter

Dated Wednesday May 10 2023, 12.01am - full copy:

Britain to blacklist Russia’s Wagner group as terrorists

Mercenaries will be given same status as Isis and al-Qaeda

Britain is poised to formally proscribe the Wagner group of mercenaries as a terrorist organisation to increase pressure on Russia.

The group has played a central role in President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and is leading attempts to take the eastern town of Bakhmut, which has become a focus of the war for both sides.

A government source said that, after two months of building a legal case, proscription of the group was “imminent” and likely to be enacted within weeks.

Proscription would make it a criminal offence to belong to Wagner, attend its meetings, encourage support for it or carry its logo in public, putting it on the same footing as groups such as Islamic State and al-Qaeda.

It would also impose financial sanctions, which would be significant because the group and all its members would be barred from using UK courts to silence journalists and campaigners. Officials said it would have implications for Wagner’s ability to raise money if any funds went through British financial institutions.

Meanwhile, Putin launched a fresh tirade against the West during a scaled-back Victory Day parade in Moscow to commemorate the end of the Second World War. He accused the West of “unleashing war against Russia” and said supporters of Ukraine included “neo-Nazi scum”.

There were signs, however, of the toll the Ukraine war had taken on the Russian army. In Moscow just one tank took part in the parade on Red Square — a Second World War-era Soviet T-34 — and planned celebrations in at least 21 Russian cities were cancelled.

Wagner, often referred to as a private military company, is a group of mercenaries accused of human rights abuses that came to international attention after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. It is led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ex-convict and former hotdog seller known as “Putin’s chef”.

Prigozhin, 61, was able to use British courts to bring a libel case against Eliot Higgins, a British journalist, after revelations by his website Bellingcat about the group’s shadowy operations. The case collapsed in March last year after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and personal sanctions imposed on Prigozhin, but government sources said it was an example of how proscription could help to prevent Wagner’s influence and operations in the UK.

For many years Wagner was closely linked with the Kremlin but the invasion of Ukraine has led to strains in the relationship between Prigozhin and Putin. In an expletive-strewn outburst last week, Prigozhin said “scumbag” Russian generals were responsible for the deaths of Wagner fighters as he accused them of depriving them of ammunition in the nine-month battle for Bakhmut.

The Bakhmut offensive has cost Moscow thousands of casualties. Wagner, which is using prisoners to fight alongside its professional recruits, has sustained many of the losses.

As well as the war in Ukraine, the group has been involved in numerous conflicts across Africa and the Middle East — fighting for control of goldmines in the Central African Republic and helping to prop up President Assad’s regime in Syria. More recently, there have been fears the group could try to expand its presence in Sudan as the country slides towards civil war.

There has not been evidence that Wagner or individuals linked to it are operating in the UK since the war in Ukraine started and proscription is largely seen as a symbolic move. However, a government source said there had been “suspicions” that the group had helped launder money out of the UK along with organised crime groups after financial sanctions were imposed against Russian oligarchs and Putin allies in the wake of the war.

In order to proscribe the group, the Home Office would need to build a case for why the legal step was required, which could include references to classified intelligence.

Some Whitehall sources expressed cynicism over the move, given the lack of involvement of Wagner in the UK. One source said: “I don’t suppose anyone walks around London saying ‘I’m a member of the Wagner Group’. This sounds more like someone in government itching to find something else to punish Putin with.”

David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, said: “It is only right that the government appears to be finally listening to Labour’s calls for its proscription as a terrorist organisation.”

IMAGE 

GRAPH MAP

PHOTO

Wagner is still recruiting heavily in Russia

MAXIM SHIPENKOV/EPA

PHOTO

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, has accused Russian generals of causing the deaths of his fighters in Bakhmut through ammunition shortages

AFP/GETTY IMAGES

View original: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/government-russian-wagner-group-africa-putin-war-2023-rtfjcwjxb

Sudan presidential palace blown up in military strike?

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: This news just in but I can't verify it. It's behind a paywall at The Times online so I subscribed in order to read the report. After doing so, I still can't access the full report. Maybe it's propaganda that somehow found its way into the website. Here's what I saw.

Report from The Times

By Fred Harter, Port Sudan

Dated Tuesday 09 May 2023

Sudan presidential palace blown up in military strike

The presidential palace at the centre of fierce fighting between Sudan's warring military leaders has been destroyed in an airstrike, according to the country's paramilitary unit. The Rapid...

Read more here: Sudan presidential palace blown up in military strike

____________________________

UPDATE 30 mins later: Here below is the full report including 2 photos currently on website of The Times. Note, there are no photos of the allegedly destroyed palace. One of the car photos appeared online earlier this week. 

Also, a Reuters report just in says "an army source denied the claim"- see the report by Reuters here:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/sudan-crisis-air-strikes-hit-khartoum-absence-of-police-prompts-looting-robbery/ar-AA1aYrDJ

____________________________

Sudan presidential palace blown up in military strike

Fred Harter, Port Sudan | Jane Flanagan

Tuesday May 09 2023, 9.30pm, The Times

The presidential palace at the centre of fierce fighting between Sudan’s warring military leaders has been destroyed in an airstrike, according to the country’s paramilitary unit.

The Rapid Support Forces have held the compound since April 15, when tensions between the country’s two most powerful figures exploded into warfare and turned the capital into a battleground.

In a statement last night the RSF said the colonial-era building — where the famed British Army officer Gordon of Khartoum was killed during the colonial era — had been devastated by missiles launched by air force fighter jets. They pledged “an appropriate response”.

Residents living near the sprawling complex, featured on stamps and bank notes, have been caught up in the clashes between forces loyal to General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s de-facto leader since a coup in 2019, and the RSF’s warlord leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

The palace attack is expected to stall talks between their envoys, who are meeting in neighbouring Saudi Arabia to discuss a truce to allow humanitarian organisations to reach those in need.

Exact figures have been impossible to determine, but hundreds of people are believed to have been killed and thousands wounded since fighting broke out, with aid supplies disrupted and 115,000 refugees fleeing into neighbouring states.

Elradi Hamdan, 44, an architectural engineer from Edinburgh, told The Times that Foreign Office officials informed him he could only board an RAF plane in Port Sudan if he left behind his pregnant wife and five children, all of whom are Sudanese. “They said, ‘If you want to come alone there is no problem, but you cannot take anybody else, not even your children’,” Hamdan said. “They just took people with the British passport.”

British government flights out of the country for UK passport holders ended last week. Saudi Arabia and other countries, including the United States, are still evacuating people from Port Sudan’s dockside.

Hamdan’s wife is recovering from breast cancer and his children are traumatised after being caught up in the fighting in Khartoum. As Hamdan spoke to The Times, his 10-year-old son could be heard crying out in the background. “He’s talking about the war in his sleep,” Hamdan said. “He heard a lot of gunshots and saw a lot of things a kid his age shouldn’t see.”

The family are camping in a half-built call centre owned by a friend. Before arriving in Port Sudan, they travelled twice to the Wadi Seidna airstrip, another site where the RAF had been staging evacuation flights.

On the second trip, Hamdam said he watched “five or six flights come and go” as officials refused to take his family. He returned to his home to find it had been looted.

“I don’t know what to do,” he said. “As a British citizen, I can go anywhere if there is a ticket. But I cannot leave my wife and children behind.”

The presidential palace in Khartoum has been at the centre of the fight

RAPID SUPPORT FORCES/ESN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

A destroyed car near the presidential palace. People living near the compound have been caught up in fierce clashes between the warring factions 

GETTY IMAGES

View original: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sudan-presidential-palace-blown-up-in-military-strike-f3c23mgjq

[Ends]

South Sudan: Peace remains elusive with conflict leading to increased casualties and displacement

Durable peace in #SouthSudan remains elusive with intercommunal conflict leading to increased civilian casualties, displacement & an escalating risk of sexual violence. #UNMISS peacekeepers have scaled up patrols + community engagements to protect civilians, shore up confidence. pic.twitter.com/OqN9OxDhxE

— UNMISS (@unmissmedia) May 8, 2023

Sudan crisis: Threatens progress on Abyei & borders

Report from UN News

Dated Tuesday 09 May 2023 - excerpt:

Sudan violence threatens fragile cross-border progress with Juba

The impact of ongoing violence among rival military parties in Sudan is threatening to derail bilateral political progress with neighbouring South Sudan, worsen the fragile humanitarian situation, and pose fresh risks, top UN officials warned the Security Council on Tuesday.

“The outbreak of violence in the Sudan may deeply impact the chance for political progress on Abyei and border issues,” Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations, told the Council.

Security in Abyei, a disputed oil-rich border region straddling both African nations, had been a point of contention, but agreements had been reached before the outbreak of violence in Sudan on 15 April, she said, providing updates to the UN Secretary-General’s latest report on the unfolding situation.

Read full story: https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/05/1136492

[Ends]

South Sudan: More than 50,000 refugees arriving

"We are talking about more than 50,000 refugees and returnees, the majority of whom are returnees.” Albino Akol Atak - The Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management #SouthSudab #SSOT pic.twitter.com/nM5FfWoap2

— Eye Radio (@EyeRadioJuba) May 9, 2023

Sudan: Minawi is in Fasher, Darfur, redeploys troops

NOTE from Sudan Watch Ed: I wrote about this today but deleted. Not sure how I can keep this up. Bad guys are depressing. Amazed Minawi's still alive.

Report from Radio Dabanga

Dated Tuesday 09 May 2023

Darfur update: Minawi is back in El Fasher and redeploys troops, cautious calm in Nyala

EL FASHER / NYALA – May 9, 2023

Governor of the Darfur Region Minni Minawi arrived back in Darfur yesterday [Mon May 8] after failed negotiations and redeployed his troops in the region. In South Darfur capital Nyala, residents have fled to Southern neighbourhoods amidst rumours of imminent attacks. Yet, the situation remains cautiously calm for now.

The Darfur region authorities said in a press statement yesterday that Minawi left the capital for El Fasher yesterday, despite the critical security conditions, after efforts to stop the war and alleviate the difficult humanitarian situation in Khartoum and other Sudanese cities failed.

Minawi is also the leader of a Sudan Liberation Movement breakaway faction (SLM-MM), who signed the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) alongside other rebel movements, and a member of the FFC-Democratic Block, a split-off faction of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) that contains many former rebel movement leaders.

According to the statement, Minawi “sought with his comrades of the Juba Peace Agreement Block to stop the absurd war and to invite the warring parties to meet for an intra-Sudanese dialogue to resolve all national issues peacefully through dialogue, but the conditions in the country prevented that”.

In a press conference after his arrival in El Fasher, capital of North Darfur, Minawi said: “I do not support either of the two parties to the conflict.” “Our good offices in the Peace [JPA] and Democratic Blocks will continue to attempt to stop the damned war in the country”.

Minawi’s troops in Darfur

Various Sudanese news outlets just reported that Minawi ordered his troops to Darfur without saying where exactly or why.

Minawi’s SLM forces have a military presence in the Sudanese capital according to an October 2020 peace agreement with the government and have so far taken a neutral position in the conflict between the RSF and SAF.

The 300 heavily armed military vehicles that Minawi took with him to Darfur had been stationed in northern Omdurman “to protect the SLM-MM leaders” after signing the peace agreement.

The redeployment of Minawi’s forces in Darfur comes at a time of fears of intercommunal clashes and of a revival of the tribal and political tensions that underpinned the Darfur civil war and led to [alleged] genocide.

Cautious calm in Nyala

The capital of South Darfur is witnessing a cautious calm, although sounds of gunfire from light and medium weapons continue from time to time for unknown reasons, Radio Dabanga’s correspondent reported from the city.

Clashes between the RSF and SAF broke out in Nyala over the weekend.

“The sounds of ammunition have become an obsession for the people, especially women and children,” the correspondent said. Some sources suggested that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sometimes shoot from the fortifications they have set up in the city.

Many residents of Nyala, especially from the northern parts of the city, left their homes to seek safety in the southern neighbourhoods in the past two days after rumours of imminent battles. Other families left Nyala altogether and sought refuge in the areas of El Salam, Ed El Fursan, Rahed El Bardi, Buram, and Gereida.

“The markets in Nyala are clearly affected by the violence as a large number of merchants closed their shops out of fear of the thefts and looting that accompany the battles between army soldiers and elements of the RSF,” especially in Darfur.

Nyala has witnessed significant looting since clashes between the RSF and SAF started. Local residents formed popular initiatives to secure their neighbourhoods, including barricading the streets.

Residents have reported that militia gangs are looting and mugging residents whilst staying in RSF camps and enjoying their protection.

Doctor Selma Takana, the representative of the director of the South Darfur branch of the National Health Insurance Fund, reported that 16 of the fund’s vehicles were stolen. Three health centres inside the university, the radiology department, and laboratories were severely damaged.

The Yashfeen Diagnostic Complex was also plundered and most of its medicines were stolen.

Shortages

The prices of consumer goods in the city are steadily rising, day after day.

“The prices are rapidly rising because of scarcity as there are no more lorries coming from Khartoum with supplies. The people also suffer from a great lack of liquidity because the banks are closed, which exacerbates the living crisis day after day,” the correspondent explained.

The South Darfur Community Initiative is making continuous efforts to bring in a commercial convoy that has been stuck between Nyala and El Fasher since the outbreak of the war on April 15.

The Initiative is seeking sufficient guarantees from both the army and the RSF to safely open the banks and normalise life again in Nyala, which is the largest commercial hub in the west of the country.

Despite the lack of cash and scarcity of goods, South Darfur is managing to keep some of its health services running.

The South Darfur Health Ministry announced that the medicines currently still available can cover the state’s needs for a month.

Director of the Ministry Rehab Fatehelrahman said in a briefing to the state’s Humanitarian Situation Committee, headed by West Darfur Governor Hamid El Tijani Hanoun, that the work in the Nyala Teaching Hospital, the Specialists Hospital, the Turkish Hospital, the Italian Hospital, the Police Hospital, and the Medical Corps has continued since the beginning of the war.

She also confirmed that efforts are being made to deliver quantities of medicine to Nyala that got stuck on the way.

Doctor Takana confirmed the stability of work in most of the National Health Insurance Fund centres in the 21 localities of South Darfur and reassured the state committee that there are medicines available to the National Health Insurance Fund that will contribute to covering the shortages in the hospitals. 

The health insurance centres, however, suffer from management problems. The salaries of the staff have been delayed.

Takana further said that activists in the neighbourhoods are exerting efforts to operate the El Wadi and the El Sad El Ali health centres.

El Fasher robbery

El Fasher also witness looting and theft and precarious healthcare conditions.

Passengers of a transport vehicle were subjected to an armed robbery in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, on Sunday evening.

One of the passengers told Radio Dabanga that the gunmen fired in the air and forced the passengers to get out of the car at gunpoint before robbing them of their belongings and stealing the vehicle’s fuel.

A number of residents have called on the North Darfur government and the Mediation Committee of Elders to intervene and resolve the deteriorating security situation in the city since the beginning of the fighting between the army and the RSF in the country.

The residents of El Fasher also suffer from frequent and long power outages, one of them told Radio Dabanga. “The electric current is cut off from six in the morning with a fluctuating return at night. This crisis will worsen in the coming days because of the lack of fuel trucks to feed the electricity generators”.

He added that the continuous power outages greatly affect the performance of hospitals and health centres and other important sectors in the city.

View original: https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/darfur-update-minawi-back-in-el-fasher-cautious-calm-in-nyala-theft-continues

Sudan: WFP scaling up ops to support 5 million people

World Food Programme says it's scaling up operations over coming months to support nearly 5M

UN agency plans to reach 380,000 vulnerable people in Sudan 'immediately'

Close to a quarter of WFP food stocks were looted over the weekend in the agency's main offices in the Sudanese capital Khartoum.

Overall, some 17,000 metric tons of food had been taken, mostly in the first few days of the fighting, worth at least $13 million, according to the UN.

Sudan has been without a functioning government since October 2021

Read more from Anadolu Agency 

By Beyza Binnur Donmez

Published Tuesday 09 May 2023 - full copy:

UN agency plans to reach 380,000 vulnerable people in Sudan 'immediately'

World Food Programme says it's scaling up operations over coming months to support nearly 5M

GENEVA

The World Food Programme (WFP) said on Tuesday that it plans to reach 380,000 vulnerable people in Sudan "immediately."

WFP Sudan told Anadolu in a statement that the agency remains committed to supporting the most vulnerable people in Sudan even after the recent looting of its main offices.

The agency said it has reached over 35,000 people in three states -- Gedaref, White Nile, and Kassalam -- with two-month worth of emergency food assistance, including refugees and internally displaced persons, since the temporary suspension was lifted last week.

It added that the emergency food distributions to newly displaced Sudanese in Gezira State will start in the coming days.

"We have every intention to continuing our life-saving work and are planning to reach over 380,000 people immediately," it said. "Further to that, we are scaling up our operations over the coming months to support nearly 5 million vulnerable people across Sudan including newly displaced, vulnerable host communities, and pre-existing refugees and IDPs (internally displaced persons)."

Close to a quarter of WFP food stocks were looted over the weekend in the agency's main offices in the Sudanese capital Khartoum.

Overall, some 17,000 metric tons of food had been taken, mostly in the first few days of the fighting, worth at least $13 million, according to the UN.

On April 15, fighting erupted between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and its surroundings.

A disagreement had been fomenting in recent months between the Sudanese army and RSF over RSF's integration into the armed forces, a key condition of Sudan's transition agreement with political groups.

Sudan has been without a functioning government since October 2021, when the military dismissed Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok's transitional government and declared a state of emergency in a move decried by political forces as a "coup."

Sudan's transitional period, which started in August 2019 after the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir, had been scheduled to end with elections in early 2024.

View original: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/un-agency-plans-to-reach-380-000-vulnerable-people-in-sudan-immediately/2893180

[Ends]

Sudan: Number of displaced is more than 700,000

The numbers are staggering.

More than 700,000 people have been displaced within #Sudan since the start of the crisis. This number has doubled in the past week.

It's a race against time to provide life-saving assistance to those in need.

The fighting needs to stop now.

— Martin Griffiths (@UNReliefChief) May 9, 2023

Read full story at BBC News
Dated Tuesday 09 May 2023
Sudan crisis: Number of internally displaced rises to more than 700,000:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65528513

- - -

Report from China View - Xinhua

Editor: huaxia

Dated Wednesday 10 May 2023; 04:28

Sudan displacement doubles to 700,000 in one week: IOM - excerpt:

GENEVA, May 9 (Xinhua) -- The International Organization for Migration (IOM), a United Nations (UN) agency, reported on Tuesday that more than 700,000 people have already been internally displaced by the fighting in Sudan. The number was more than doubled in the past week.

IOM spokesperson Paul Dillon said that "last Tuesday, the figure stood at 340,000. Prior to the fighting, an estimated 3.7 million people had already been internally displaced in Sudan."

He said that the number of internally displaced persons increased in several areas, including the capital, where clashes were continuing. "The IOM has stocks of non-food items in six warehouses around the country, but to date the organization has been unable to deliver to those in need."

Full story: http://www.chinaview.cn/20230510/d8ad3e981d064a4f8716c120ac35ffd9/c.html

[Ends]

URGENT FROM ALEX DE WAAL - Sudan crisis: Mediators over a barrel in mission to end fighting

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Here is Alex de Waal’s latest take on the current Sudan crisis. Fortunately, it was published yesterday in the form of a carefully worded piece for BBC News. See copy below. 

As usual, it didn't disappoint. I had to read it six times to see if there was any wiggle room in the stance he has taken. There is none, it is crystal clear with no way of misunderstanding this: speed is of the essence.

While reading it, I agreed with every word but my heart sank at not seeing anything that was news to me.

The overall message he conveys in his analysis, without appearing to be dramatic, is the urgent need for speed: that there's no time left to lose on haggling for peace. We're talking hours and days, not weeks.

Also, he didn’t mention justice or for Messrs Burhan and Hemeti to be called to account for their crimes. It seems to me that Alex's advice to the current mediators is this: appease them, agree amnesty for war crimes.

So, after giving it much thought, and it pains me to say this, one side will have to be backed in order to give Sudanese civilians a chance to run their country and army, which means backing Mr Burhan and SAF.

Rewarding Hemeti, treating him as a victor would make the Janjaweed victorious. Unthinkable. He must not have any role leading any part of Sudan or South Sudan. Retire him to Chad where he was born, or to the ICC. 

Over the past 20 years here at Sudan Watch, I've argued strongly in favour of the African Union, for Africa be governed by Africa-led solutions and initiatives, for it to be empowered and lead without outside interference and to be given a seat on the UN Security Council.

Please God stop the fighting, let the world unite in supporting Sudan and South Sudan by providing them with what they need, humanitarian assistance and access to aid until they can stand on their own feet. 

And let them decide what to do with the RSF. Hopefully, Hemeti will disappear peaceably, forever. 

Wish I had time to write a better intro instead of this half-baked draft but as Alex shows in his heavy-duty not light-weight piece, if one reads it carefully: there is not a minute to waste. Seriously. Every minute counts.

______________________________

Report from BBC News

By ALEX DE WAAL

Dated Monday 08 May 2023 - full copy:

Sudan crisis: Mediators over a barrel in mission to end fighting

AFP

With the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, transformed from tranquil city to war zone, Saudi Arabia and the US have called the warring parties to Jeddah to seek agreement on a ceasefire. But as Sudan expert Alex de Waal says, it will just be a short-term, emergency step.

______________________________

There is a dilemma for mediators: whatever decision they take on the format and agenda for emergency talks will determine the path of peace-making in Sudan through to its conclusion.

To silence the guns, the American and Saudi diplomats will deal only with the rival generals who have each sent a three-person negotiating team to Jeddah. 

The agenda is a humanitarian ceasefire, a monitoring mechanism and corridors for aid. Neither side wants to open negotiations towards a political agreement.

The civilian parties and neighbourhood resistance committees, whose non-violent protests brought down the authoritarian regime of long-time leader Omar al-Bashir four years ago, will be onlookers.

It will not be easy to get the two generals to agree to any kind of ceasefire.

The army chief, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, will insist that he represents the legitimate government. He will label Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as "Hemedti", as a rebel.

But Hemedti, his de facto deputy until the clashes, will demand equal status for the two sides.

He will want on a freeze-in-place, leaving his paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters in control of much of Khartoum. Gen Burhan will require a return to the positions in the days before the clashes began.

Getting a compromise means hard bargaining with the generals. 

The mediators need to gain their confidence and assure them that, if they make concessions now, that will not leave them exposed and vulnerable.

The downside is that the two warring parties will then demand the dominant role in political talks and an agenda that suits their interests.

One thing on which Burhan and Hemedti - and the Arab neighbours - agree is that they do not want a democratic government, which had been on the cards before the fighting began. The two military men had run the country since the 2019 which ousted Bashir, refusing to hand power to civilians.

AFP

The real losers are the civilians who helped oust Bashir in 2019 and want elections and a democratic government

Another point of agreement will be amnesty for war crimes.

Negotiations dominated by the generals are likely to end in a peace agreement in which they share the spoils, setting back the prospects for democracy for many more years.

But if the fighting is not stopped soon, Sudan faces state collapse.

Abdalla Hamdok - prime minister of the joint military-civilian government ousted by the generals in 2021 - has said the country's new war threatened to be worse than Syria or Yemen. 

He might have added, worse than Darfur.

Frontline reinforcements

There is a grim predictability about how Sudan's civil wars unfold.

In the opening days, the military commanders - army generals and rebel leaders - are driven by an angry resolve to land a knockout blow on the other side.

Combat is fierce as each side focuses its attacks, and it is easy to identify who is on which side - and who is staying neutral.

AFP

The RSF has its roots in Darfur where some fighters are alleged to have been involved in what the International Criminal Court considers a genocide

We saw this when the Sudanese civil war broke out in 1983, again in Darfur 20 years later, and in the conflicts in Abyei, Heglig and the Nuba Mountains close to the north-south border at the time when South Sudan separated in 2011.

The first clashes in South Sudan's own civil war in 2013 also looked like this.

On 15 April, when fighting erupted between the army and the RSF, each side vowed to destroy the other.

They concentrated their firepower on each other's strategic positions in the capital, regardless of the massive destruction inflicted on the city and its residents.

Past wars show that if the fighting is not quickly halted, it escalates.

Each side brings reinforcements to the frontline, bids to win over local armed groups that are not yet involved, and solicits help from friendly foreign backers. 

We are in that phase now.

The regular conflict script tells us the adversaries will not be able to sustain their cohesion for long. They will run low on weapons, logistics and money, and cut deals to get more.

The fissures within each fighting coalition will begin to show. Other armed groups will join the fray.

Local communities will arm themselves for self-defence. Outsiders will become entangled. 

All of this is already happening. It is most advanced in Darfur, Hemedti's homeland, which is in flames again.

Up to now, we have not seen civilians being systematically targeted because of their ethnic identity.

But that is a major risk, and as soon as fighters on one side commit mass atrocities, the antagonism will escalate.

The next stage would be conflict spreading across the country, igniting local disputes as it goes.

Armed groups will fragment and coalesce, fighting for control over the lucrative locations such as roads, airports, gold mines and aid distribution centres. 

In Darfur, after the fierce battles and massacres of 2003-04, the region collapsed into anarchy.

The head of the joint African Union-United Nations mission called it "a war of all against all".

This was the lawless political marketplace in which Hemedti thrived, using cash and violence to build a power base.

There is an all-too-real scenario in which the whole of Sudan comes to resemble Darfur.

'Abandoned in moment of need'

The US and Saudi mediators are high-level and even-handed. Unlike other Arab neighbours - Egypt backs Burhan and the United Arab Emirates has ties to Hemedti - Riyadh does not have a favourite. 

The US is threatening sanctions. That is unlikely to deter the generals - Sudan has been under American sanctions since 1989, and military-owned businesses thrived nonetheless. 

GETTY IMAGES

The one thing Gen Burhan (R) and Hemedti (L) are likely to agree about is that neither wants a civilian government

Effective pressure needs international consensus. Everyone - including China and Russia - agrees that the fighting is a disaster.

Protocol at the UN puts the responsibility on its African members to raise the issue at the Security Council. 

Up to now, they have not acted, and the African Union has not even convened its Peace and Security Council.

In the meantime, every passing day risks the war becoming intractable.

Silencing the guns today is a hard-enough task. It would be far harder if there were dozens of fissile armed groups claiming a seat at the table.

What is unprecedented about today's armed conflict is that the battleground is in Khartoum. 

It is generating a humanitarian crisis quite different to the rural displacement and hunger that the country's aid workers have dealt with over the decades.

Civilians trapped in urban neighbourhoods may benefit from old-style food convoys, but they also need utilities - electricity, water, and telecoms. And they desperately need cash. 

With the central bank burned and local commercial bank branches closed, some people rely on mobile phone banking services. Others are penniless.

With the UN and most foreign aid workers evacuated, local resistance committees have stepped into the vacuum, organising essential aid and safe passage for civilians to escape. 

REUTERS

Civilians have become trapped in urban neighbourhoods with truces failing to hold

Many Sudanese feel that the international community abandoned them in their moment of need, and ask that such local, civilian efforts become the lynchpin of an aid effort.

There is a danger that hunger will become a weapon of war, and aid will be a resource manipulated by warlords.

Aid agencies will need to find ways to bypass them and directly help civilians.

There are no simple solutions to Sudan's escalating war. The situation may yet get much worse before it gets better.

And it is likely that whatever decisions are taken in the ceasefire talks - who is represented, on what terms, and with what agenda - will shape the country's future for years to come.

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US.

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View original: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65495539

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INTERVIEW: Deutsche Welle & Alexander Rondos, Former EU Special Representative, Horn of Africa

Sudan's rival factions meet for preliminary talks in Saudi Arabia

HERE is a video posted an hour ago by Germany's international broadcaster Deutsche Welle showing its interview with Mr Alexander Rondos, Former EU Special Representative for the Horn of Africa, currently in Nairobi.

The 07:39 minute interview is really good and gives one hope that there are many clever experienced knowledgeable people like Mr Rondos working hard to help Sudan and its neighbours avert catastrophic war.

Note that Mr Rondos rightly emphasises the importance of ensuring that talks involve and include Sudanese civilians and Sudan's neighbouring countries such as Chad, Libya, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea.

To view the video click here: https://p.dw.com/p/4R2r8

or here: https://www.dw.com/en/sudans-rival-factions-meet-for-preliminary-talks-in-saudi-arabia/video-65551182

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Men are getting carried away with themselves. Some trigger happy men spark a gunfight in the Gulf of Aden

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: While I was thinking that boys with toys are getting carried away with themselves, and the 246-year-old USA being the new kids on the block needs to stay home to get its own house in order before naively messing up more countries it's too young to understand, I saw a comment at this tweet that led me to this T-shirt for sale at Amazon which made me laugh because it tells me I am not alone in my thinking.

Private armed guards aboard a famous yacht once owned by the late actor Richard Burton opened fire on Yemeni Coast Guard members after mistaking them for pirates, sparking a gunfight in the Gulf of Aden, authorities said. https://t.co/SlKTjQshob

— The Associated Press (@AP) April 28, 2023

Turkish embassy in Khartoum to relocate to Port Sudan after ambassador's vehicle targeted by gunfire

Report from China.org.cn

By Xinhua

Dated Sunday 07 May 2023 - excerpts:

Turkish embassy in Khartoum to relocate to Port Sudan

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced on Saturday that Türkiye has decided to relocate its embassy in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, to Port Sudan, in response to an earlier incident where the Turkish ambassador's vehicle was targeted by gunfire.

"For the safety of our embassy and our colleagues, we decided to move our embassy to Port Sudan," Cavusoglu was quoted as saying by the semi-official Anadolu Agency. […]

After the incident, the RSF and the Sudanese army exchanged accusations. The RSF claimed that the area where the attack occurred was under military control and reiterated its commitment to protecting diplomatic missions in the country. Conversely, the army attributed responsibility to the RSF for the assault.

View original: http://www.china.org.cn/world/2023-05/07/content_85270841.htm

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