Zamzam IDP camp in Al Fasher, N Darfur, Sudan could be surrounded by Hemeti's RSF in days or weeks

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: A nightmare scenario, unless something major happens and none of the current trends change, is not only the fall of Sudan's Armed Forces' (SAF) 6th Infantry Division in Al Fasher, capital city of North Darfur, Sudan to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) but that Zamzam IDP camp in the area is also likely to be surrounded by RSF in days or weeks.

Here is a rough transcript I made of a video (Abrabic subtitles) showing Abdallah Hussain, News Anchor for Albalad TV interviewing Nathaniel Raymond, Director, Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health, USA on Sunday, 22 Sept 2024 and streamed on 23 Sept 2024.

Question by ABDALLAH HUSSAIN:

"So Mr Raymond, regarding your previous point that RSF outnumbers the joint forces plus the Sudanese Army and of course the rainy season has been a factor right now that’s occurring on the battlefield, what after the rainy season can we anticipate that El Fasher will fall?"

Answer by NATHANIEL RAYMOND:

"If, at the end of the day making predictions in a yes, no or [on this day?] X or Y is going to happen doesn’t help but I think it does help to talk about where the trends are going.

Right now, Sudan Armed Forces controls a corridor on the western side of the city that’s maybe 8-9 kilometres long by 4 kilometres wide depending on how you measure it. And RSF has all the [advantages?] at this point. 

Now things can change but if none of the current trends change what we really have to worry about is not only the fall of 6th Infantry Division in Al Fasher but is a Rapid Support Forces move on Zamzam camp. 

What for me is a nightmare scenario and you can tell by watching the space - the Sudan Armed Forces is also concerned about this - is that RSF takes the B26 road going south, not [South?] Sudan Armed Forces' checkpoint on that road, and then from Al Fasher in Nyala squeezes Zamzam and surrounds it, and you can tell based on what we can see inside Zamzam that people there are also concerned about being surrounded and that is a nightmare scenario [.?.] unless something major happens the [trend line?] is that Al Fasher will fall and Zamzam is likely to be surrounded in days or weeks".

FURTHER VIDEO👇 

El Fasher Siege Continues | Analysis

VIDEO INTERVIEW dated Tue, Sept 24, 2024: "As the siege continues and El Fasher battles intensify, Abdallah Hussain, News Anchor for Albalad TV spoke with Nathaniel Raymond, Executive Director at the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health, to delve into the escalating humanitarian crisis and its impact on civilians".

Source: YouTube https://youtu.be/J_CtJr3YJXw

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Related

African Union urges end to fighting in Sudan's El-Fasher

AFP yesterday (24 Sep) says African Union urges end to fighting in Sudan's El-Fasher: AUC said its chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat "calls for an immediate cessation of the fighting inside and outside of El-Fasher," it added. Mahamat also called on the AU's Peace and Security Council to "urgently consider the situation".

Full story: https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/532383.aspx

Sudan: RSF to turn Zurrug, N. Darfur into a dream city

Sudan Watch - October 05, 2023
As Hemeti, the ruthless leader of Sudan's Janjaweed militia, has grand plans for Zurrug, a remote western province in North Darfur, Sudan the transformation of Zurrug risks more unrest. 

Full story: https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2023/10/sudan-rsf-to-turn-zurrug-n-darfur-into.html

End

Sudan warring parties’ to sit down for talks in Addis, Cairo 10 July 2024. UN warns of further displacement

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Defenceless civilians in Sudan are being left to fend for themselves and starve while Sudan's military junta fights the RSF private army for control of Sudan. If the African Union and IGAD cannot end genocide in Sudan, one of 54 countries on the continent of Africa, they and the ICC should be defunded and sent packing. They are not working.

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Report from The Reporter Ethiopia
By ASHENAFI ENDALE
Dated Saturday, 22 June 2024. Here is a full copy:

Sudan warring parties’ to sit down for talks in Addis Ababa, Cairo in July

UN warns of further displacement without peace efforts

Addis Ababa will play host to an all-inclusive political dialogue centered around war-torn Sudan for five days beginning July 10, 2024, according to an AU statement released on Friday.

The AUC Chairperson, through the AU High-Level Panel on Sudan and in collaboration with IGAD, is working to realize the dialogue in hopes of securing a people-driven solution to the brutal conflict and restoration of constitutional democratic order in Sudan, according to the statement.

It came following a meeting between heads of state and government on the situation in Sudan on Friday.

The communiqué disclosed that another dialogue effort is scheduled to take place in Egypt in early July prior to the talks in Addis Ababa.

“[The AU] expresses appreciation to the efforts undertaken by neighboring countries, in coordination with the AU and IGAD, to facilitate the promotion of peace in Sudan, including the ongoing efforts by the Arab Republic of Egypt to facilitate the dialogue among Sudanese actors, scheduled to be held early July 2024 in Cairo, Egypt, to complement the ongoing efforts to convene the AU/IGAD-led Inclusive Dialogue,” reads the communiqué.

The African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) has called for direct negotiations between the warring generals of Sudan in order to secure a ceasefire agreement.

“An acceptable ceasefire can only be reached through direct negotiations between the key actors in the war,” reads an AUPSC statement released on Friday.

It details that the AU chairperson is tasked with setting up a committee led by Ugandan President Kaguta Museveni to facilitate the talks between the heads of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in “the shortest possible time.”

The Council has also called on all external actors to “stop any military and financial support to the belligerents that is further worsening the conflict.”

The statement t says the committee led by Museveni is tasked with liaising with the AU Commission and the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) to “identify all external actors supporting the warring factions militarily, financially, and politically, as well as make proposals on how to contain each of them.”

The Council has called for all stakeholders to work in an inclusive, coordinated, and synchronized manner through the existing AU-established coordinating mechanisms for the resolution of the crisis in Sudan.

The statement acknowledges reports of violence in parts of Sudan, including Khartoum, Darfur, Al Gezira, and Kordofan, and warns against the potential dangerous ethnic and communal repercussions of the conflict.

More than 14,000 people are thought to have been killed in Sudan since the brutal civil war broke out last April, with thousands more injured, and more than 10 million people displaced, making it the worst internal displacement crisis in the world, according to the UN.

Earlier this week, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees warned that many more people will flee the war in Sudan for shelter in neighboring countries without concerted peace efforts.

“The level of suffering is truly unconscionable,’’ said UNHCR head Filippo Grandi. “Sudan is the definition of a perfect storm: shocking human rights atrocities, with millions uprooted by this insane war and other wars that came before it. A terrible famine is looming, and severe floods will soon hamper aid deliveries even more. We are losing a generation to this war, yet peace efforts are not working.”

View original: https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/40772/

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Related reports

IGAD Executive Secretary, H.E. @DrWorkneh, attended the AU Peace and Security Council Heads of State and Government meeting, chaired by H.E. @KagutaMuseveni, to discuss the situation in #Sudan. The meeting focused on the ongoing conflict and explored ways to enhance coordinated… pic.twitter.com/oHuSjGniO7

— IGAD Secretariat (@IGADsecretariat) June 21, 2024

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Good preview of what today's AU meeting on #Sudan is likely to discuss from @africa_amani https://t.co/ccCbWmgceQ

— Cameron Hudson (@_hudsonc) June 21, 2024

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Sudan Watch - June 11, 2024
ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan KC appeals for information on international crimes in Darfur, Sudan
THE International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor Mr Karim Khan KC issued an urgent appeal today (Tuesday, 11 June 2024) in The Hague for information and evidence of atrocities in Darfur, Sudan, saying his ongoing investigation “seems to disclose an organised, systematic and a profound attack on human dignity.” 
https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/06/icc-chief-prosecutor-karim-khan-kc.html

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Sudan Watch - June 10, 2024

Calls for the international community to act and restart Saudi-US Jeddah process is a total abdication by Africa. AU & IGAD are ignoring starving Sudanese

Photo: The Chairperson of the Commission, H.E. Moussa Faki Mahamat (Credit AUC)

“Not a shred of indication that the AU is prepared to play a more active role in ending the conflict inside a member state that risks drawing in many more members. Calls for the international community to act and restart of Saudi-US Jeddah process is a total abdication by Africa.”https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2024/06/calls-for-international-community-to.html

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COMMUNIQUÉ OF THE 2nd MEETING OF THE IGAD QUARTET GROUP OF COUNTRIES FOR THE RESOLUTION OF THE SITUATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF SUDAN

September 06, 2023 (NAIROBI, Kenya): The Heads of State and Government of the IGAD Quartet Group of Countries met in Nairobi, Republic of Kenya on the margins of the 2023 Africa Climate Summit to take stock of the implementation of the IGAD Roadmap for peace in the Republic of Sudan that was adopted by the 14th Ordinary Assembly of the IGAD Heads of State and Government on the 12th of June 2023 in Djibouti and in follow up to the 1st meeting of the IGAD Quartet group of countries that was held in Addis Abba on the 10th of July 2023.

https://igad.int/communique-of-the-2nd-meeting-of-the-igad-quartet-group-of-countries-for-the-resolution-of-the-situation-in-the-republic-of-sudan/ 

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COMMUNIQUÉ OF THE 1^ST MEETING OF THE IGAD QUARTET GROUP OF COUNTRIES FOR THE RESOLUTION OF THE SITUATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF SUDAN

On Monday, 10^th July 2023, the Heads of State and Government of the IGAD Quartet Group of Countries met in Addis Ababa, Federal Democratic of Ethiopia to discuss in depth the implementation of the IGAD Roadmap for peace in the Republic of Sudan.

https://igad.int/communique-of-the-1st-meeting-of-the-igad-quartet-group-of-countries-for-the-resolution-of-the-situation-in-the-republic-of-sudan/

 

END

Calls for the international community to act and restart Saudi-US Jeddah process is a total abdication by Africa. AU & IGAD are ignoring starving Sudanese

FAMINE has arrived in Sudan. 5 million Sudanese are a step away from famine. Some experts predict 2.5 million could die within weeks. Millions of civilians in Sudan who fled for their lives ended up in such bad situations in South Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt some had to return to Sudan while others were so hungry they ate leaves and ants. 800,000 lives are at stake in Al Fasher, North Darfur a place the UN calls "Hell on Earth" and where Hemeti plans to build his dream city. The continent of Africa comprising 54 countries is huge and rich. The leaders of the AU and IGAD are either bone idle lazy or corrupt barbarians or both. Here is a shocking Statement by the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, H.E. Moussa Faki Mahamat, 7 June 2024. It shows that millions of Sudanese people are being left to die.

Photo: The Chairperson of the Commission, H.E. Moussa Faki Mahamat (Credit AUC)

Not a shred of indication that the AU is prepared to play a more active role in ending the conflict inside a member state that risks drawing in many more members. Calls for the international community to act and restart of Saudi-US Jeddah process is a total abdication by Africa. https://t.co/3rAMzJmHwb

— Cameron Hudson (@_hudsonc) June 7, 2024

END

African Union Commission chief & UNOCHA express concern over deteriorating situation in western Sudan

AFRICAN UNION COMMISSION CHIEF Mr Moussa Faki Mahamat said the significant buildup of fighters and weapons in the vicinity of El Fasher, North Darfur poses a grave threat to the lives, property and livelihoods of millions of people and complicates an already-difficult peace-making process.

The AUC chief further called on all Sudanese actors to support the efforts of the AU High Level Panel on Sudan which is trying to convene in the coming days a preparatory process for an all-inclusive Sudan political dialogue. 

On Friday, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) expressed concern that the manoeuvring of opposing armed forces in western Sudan is raising tensions, blocking aid to thousands of people and creating a horrifying situation for civilians.

Read full story by Xinhua dated Saturday, 27 April 2024.
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/274317454/au-expresses-concern-over-deteriorating-situation-in-western-sudan

END

Sudan & South Sudan: Adama Dieng appointed as first African Union (AU) special envoy for the prevention of the crime of genocide and other mass atrocities

Report from Human Rights Watch
Dated Tuesday, 23 April 2024 7:15AM EDT - here is a copy in full:

Can New African Union Genocide Envoy Curb Atrocities in Africa?

Adama Dieng has Mandate to ‘Combat the Ideology of Hate’

Click to expand Image

Adama Dieng, then-UN special adviser on the prevention of genocide, New York, June 2019. © 2019 Luiz Rampelotto/EuropaNewswire/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images

Adama Dieng has been appointed as the first African Union (AU) special envoy for the prevention of the crime of genocide and other mass atrocities.

Dieng will drive the organization’s agenda to “combat the ideology of hate and genocide on the continent,” said AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat. The April 6 appointment could not be more symbolic, marking 30 years since the Rwandan genocide and harkening to the failure of the international community to stop the slaughter.

Dieng has occupied several positions within the United Nations human rights and justice system, including as a registrar of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR), then as UN designated expert on the situation of human rights in Sudan. From 2012 to 2020, he was UN special adviser on the prevention of genocide, with a mandate to raise the alarm over situations likely to spiral into genocide and mobilize UN security council action to prevent such atrocities.

Dieng’s new appointment comes at a time when Africa is witnessing spates of terrible mass atrocities and serious crimes, with dire humanitarian consequences, and little to no international attention.

April 15 marked the first anniversary of the fast-deteriorating conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). While both parties have committed egregious laws of war violations, the targeted attacks on ethnic non-Arab communities in West Darfur by the RSF and allied militias have evoked the spectre of the horrific Darfur war. That conflict killed 300,000 people in the early 2000s and led the International Criminal Court (ICC) to indict then-Sudan President Omar al-Bashir.

Government forces in Burkina Faso have carried out mass killings of civilians as part of a brutal campaign to tackle Islamist armed groups, who have also committed serious abuses. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, government forces and armed groups, including the Rwanda-backed M23, have committed atrocities against civilians in violence throughout North Kivu and Ituri provinces.

Atrocities and serious crimes are nevertheless not limited to war time, as illustrated by the October 30, 2022 crackdown on protestors in Chad, when scores of protesters were shot by security forces.

Dieng’s newly created regional mandate could be a timely boost to existing international mechanisms on atrocities prevention if it proves to be an indication of more genuine AU political willingness to end mass abuse and uphold accountability standards.

View original:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/04/23/can-new-african-union-genocide-envoy-curb-atrocities-africa

END 

AU calls for Ramadan cessation of hostilities in Sudan

AFRICANS should put pressure on leaders of the African Union and IGAD to work harder and faster and do their jobs properly or step aside for others who are able and willing to do a good honest job. Too many Africans are still living in poverty without a right to land ownership and access to the law.

From Xinhu 

By Editor: Huaxia

Dated Saturday, 9 March 2024, 18:54:30 - here is a copy in full:

AU calls for Ramadan cessation of hostilities in Sudan

ADDIS ABABA, March 9 (Xinhua) -- Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat has called for the cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the holy month of Ramadan.

The AU Commission chairperson "calls upon Sudanese parties to observe a total cease-fire across the whole national territory throughout the holy month of Ramadan," the AU said in a statement on Friday.

Faki stressed that such a cease-fire during the holy month of Ramadan could help facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to civilians in need throughout the conflict-torn country.

He urged the warring parties "to shoulder their responsibilities to prevent the serious risk of famine and other humanitarian catastrophes from befalling the Sudanese people and the neighboring states."

Deadly clashes have been going on between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan since April last year.

Amid the continued fighting in different parts of the country, Sudan is now home to the world's largest internal displacement crisis, with 6.3 million people seeking safety within the country since the beginning of the conflict. Another 1.7 million people have also fled to neighboring countries, according to the United Nations.

On Thursday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the holy month of Ramadan.

"A Ramadan cessation of hostilities can help stem the suffering and usher the way to sustainable peace. 

Let us spare no effort to support the people of Sudan in their legitimate aspirations for a peaceful and secure future," said Guterres. 

View original:

http://www.chinaview.cn/20240309/83e35ba2203e458790c3456dd3010964/c.html

END 

Troika & EU support AU Resolution on Sudan conflict

THE only hope now for people of Sudan and South Sudan to live in peace and flourish is that all Africans, Arabs and their friends across the world join hands in friendship to give peace a chance. A tall order but not impossible.

This report says the international community has reaffirmed its support for the African Union's Roadmap for the Resolution of the Conflict in Sudan.

Report at The Star - the-star.co.ke

By SHARON MWENDE 

Dated Monday 29 May 2023; 17:17 - full copy:

ROADMAP

Troika, European Union support AU's resolution on Sudan conflict

They also agreed with the condemnation of the ongoing crisis of the two warring parties

In Summary

During the meeting, the AU adopted a Roadmap for the Resolution of the Conflict which includes silencing guns in Sudan.

It called on Sudanese stakeholders and the international community to support the implementation of the Roadmap.

EU flag .Image: FILE

The International Community has reaffirmed its support for the African Union's Roadmap for the Resolution of the Conflict in Sudan.

In a statement released by the US Department of State on Monday [May 29], Spokesperson Matthew Miller welcomed the decision to ensure coordinated action in the peace process. 

The community includes Norway, the United Kingdom, the United States of America and the European Union (the Troika plus EU).

"The Troika plus EU reaffirms its support for African leadership and the AU's Roadmap for the Resolution of the Conflict in Sudan, and welcomes the AU’s work to establish an Expanded Mechanism and its Core Group to ensure inclusively and coordinated regional and international action to secure a viable peace process, and the resumption of the transition to civilian government and democracy in Sudan," it said.

The statement comes after the AU held a Heads of State and government Peace and Security Council meeting on the situation in Sudan on Saturday, May 27.

During the meeting, the AU adopted a Roadmap for the Resolution of the Conflict which includes silencing guns in Sudan.

It called on Sudanese stakeholders and the international community to support the implementation of the Roadmap.

The leaders reaffirmed six elements which are outlined in the Roadmap including the establishment of a coordination mechanism to ensure all efforts by the regional and global actors are harmonised and impactful,  an immediate, permanent, inclusive and comprehensive cessation of hostilities.

Others are effective humanitarian response, protection of civilians and civil infrastructure, strategic role of neighboring states and the region and resumption of a credible and inclusive political transition process, that takes into account the contributory role of all Sudanese political and social actors, as well as the signatories to the Juba Peace Agreement, towards a democratic civilian-led government.

The Expanded Mechanism on Sudan and its Core Group is an all-inclusive platform of regional, continental and global actors and institutions.

It aims to provide broad-based and coordinated engagement within the international community, to foster political consensus and common global support for Sudan.

The Core Group stresses the need for the AU to continue to effectively coordinate the activities of the Expanded Mechanism on the conflict in Sudan.

Further, the leaders condemned the ongoing conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, terming it as "senseless" and "unjustified."

AU chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat demanded an immediate ceasefire without preconditions. 

He said this was going to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Sudanese in dire need.

He urged the international community to extend humanitarian aid to the persons fleeing the war in Sudan.

Troika and EU further welcomed the chairperson's demand for conflict cessation.

"We agree with the AU’s condemnation of the actions of the two warring parties and the suffering they have caused the people of Sudan," Miller said.

The ongoing conflict has led to the loss of more than 822 lives and more than 3,000 wounded.

It has also resulted in the displacement of persons and the destruction of infrastructure.

View original:  https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2023-05-29-troika-european-union-support-aus-resolution-on-sudan-conflict/

[Ends]