Islamists wield hidden hand in Sudan conflict. Burhan calls for Sudan’s young civilians to fight against RSF

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: This article shows a photo of Hemeti dated 2019. Not seen his face since he was demoted to a rebel. Two unverified voice messages from him are online. Can't find news of his whereabouts. Is he still alive? No-one's asking. Rumours online say he's in a Kenyan hospital, not true says Kenyan President Ruto in a recent video news report. 

Four writers of this article use the words "conflict" and "war"to describe Sudan's current crisis. Many writers casually use the words "war" and "genocide" whether true or not. Words have power. Young people now rely on social media for news, mainstream media is not seen as trustworthy. 

The article is followed by a cartoon from a report at Radio Dabanga titled 'El Burhan calls for Sudan's 'young and capable' civilians to fight against RSF'. 

The caption for the cartoon says 'Civilians who were killed for their protests against the actions of the military and Rapid Support Forces are now being asked to defend Sudan for Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan. 

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Article at Reuters.com
By Khalid Abdelaziz

Writing by Michael Georgy and Aidan Lewis, Editing by William Maclean
Published June 28, 2023, 5:05 AM GMT+1 - here is a full copy:

Exclusive: Islamists wield hidden hand in Sudan conflict, military sources say

Summary

• Ex-intelligence agents fighting alongside army-sources
• Army has leant on Bashir-era veterans since 2021 coup
• Conflict pits army general against ex-militia leader

[1/5]Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, deputy head of the military council and head of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), greets his supporters as he arrives at a meeting in Aprag village, 60 kilometers away from Khartoum, Sudan, June 22, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo

DUBAI, June 28 (Reuters) - Thousands of men who worked as intelligence operatives under former president Omar al-Bashir and have ties to his Islamist movement are fighting alongside the army in Sudan's war, three military sources and one intelligence source said, complicating efforts to end the bloodshed.

The army and a paramilitary force have been battling each other in Khartoum, Darfur and elsewhere for 10 weeks in Africa's third largest country by area, displacing 2.5 million people, causing a humanitarian crisis and threatening to destabilise the region. Reinforcements for either side could deepen the conflict.

The army has long denied accusations by its rivals in the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that it depends on discredited loyalists of Bashir, an Islamist long shunned by the West, who was toppled during a popular uprising in 2019.

In response to a question from Reuters for this article, an army official said: "The Sudanese army has no relation with any political party or ideologue. It is a professional institution."

Yet the three military sources and an intelligence source said thousands of Islamists were battling alongside the army.

"Around 6,000 members of the intelligence agency joined the army several weeks before the conflict," said a military official familiar with the army's operations, speaking on condition on anonymity.

"They are fighting to save the country."

Former officials of the country's now-disbanded National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), a powerful institution composed mainly of Islamists, confirmed these numbers.

An Islamist resurgence in Sudan could complicate how regional powers deal with the army, hamper any move towards civilian rule and ultimately set the country, which once hosted al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden, on a path for more internal conflict and international isolation.

Reuters spoke to 10 sources for this article, including military and intelligence sources and several Islamists.

In a development indicative of Islamist involvement, an Islamist fighter named Mohammed al-Fadl was killed this month in clashes between RSF forces and the army, said family members and Islamists. He had been fighting alongside the army, they said.

Ali Karti, secretary general of Sudan's main Islamic organisation, sent a statement of condolences for al-Fadl.

'OUR IDENTITY AND OUR RELIGION'

"We are fighting and supporting the army to protect our country from external intervention and keep our identity and our religion," said one Islamist fighting alongside the army.

Bashir's former ruling National Congress Party said in a statement it had no ties to the fighting and only backed the army politically.

The army accused the RSF of promoting Islamists and former regime loyalists in their top ranks, a charge the RSF denied. Army chief Abdel Fattah Burhan, who analysts see as a non-ideological army man, has publicly dismissed claims that Islamists are helping his forces. "Where are they?" he cried out to cheering troops in a video posted in May.

The military, which under Bashir had many Islamist officers, has been a dominant force in Sudan for decades, staging coups, fighting internal wars and amassing economic holdings.

But following the overthrow of Bashir, Burhan developed good ties with states that have worked against Islamists in the region, notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Gulf states provided Khartoum with significant aid.

Nowadays, former NISS officers also help the military by collecting intelligence on its enemies in the latest conflict. The NISS was replaced by the General Intelligence Service (GIS) after Bashir was toppled, and stripped of its armed "operations" unit, according to a constitutional agreement.

Most of the men from that unit have sided with the army, but some former operations unit members and Islamists who served under Bashir entered the RSF, one army source and one intelligence source said.

"We are working in a very hard situation on the ground to back up the army, especially with information about RSF troops and their deployment," said a GIS official.

Reuters Graphics

BASHIR-ERA VETERANS

The army outnumbers the RSF nationally, but analysts say it has little capacity for street fighting because it outsourced previous wars in remote regions to militias. Those militias include the "Janjaweed" that helped crush an insurgency in Darfur and later developed into the RSF.

Nimble RSF units have occupied large areas of Khartoum and this week took control of the main base of the Central Reserve Police, a force that the army had deployed in ground combat in the capital. They seized large amounts of weaponry.

But the army, which has depended mainly on air strikes and heavy artillery, could benefit from GIS intelligence gathering skills honed over decades as it tries to root out the RSF.

On June 7, fire engulfed the intelligence headquarters in a disputed area in central Khartoum. Both sides accused the other of attacking the building.

After Burhan and RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, carried out a coup in 2021 which derailed a transition to democracy, Hemedti said the move was a mistake and warned it would encourage Islamists to seek power.

Regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE had seen Sudan's transition towards democracy as a way to counter Islamist influence in the region, which they consider a threat.

Publicly, the army has asserted its loyalty to the uprising that ousted Bashir in 2019.

But after the military staged a coup in 2021 that provoked a resurgence of mass street protests, it leaned on Bashir-era veterans to keep the country running. A taskforce that had been working to dismantle the former ruling system was disbanded.

Before the outbreak of violence, Bashir supporters had been lobbying against a plan for a transition to elections under a civilian government. Disputes over the chain of command and the structure of the military under the plan triggered the fighting.

About a week after fighting broke out in April, a video on social media showed about a dozen former intelligence officials in army uniforms announcing themselves as reserve forces.

The footage could not be independently verified by Reuters.

Several senior Bashir loyalists walked free from prison in Bahri, across the Nile from central Khartoum, during a wider prison break amid fighting in late April. The circumstances of their release remain unclear. Bashir is in a military hospital.

[2/5]Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir addresses supporters during his visit to the war-torn Darfur region, in Bilal, Darfur, Sudan September 22, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/File Photo

[3/5]A Sudanese national flag is attached to a machine gun of Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) soldiers as they wait for the arrival of Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, deputy head of the military council and head of RSF, before a meeting in Aprag village 60, kilometers away from Khartoum, Sudan, June 22, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo 

[4/5]A burned vehicle is seen in Khartoum, Sudan April 26, 2023. REUTERS/El-Tayeb Siddig/File Photo

[5/5]Sudan's General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan walks with troops, in an unknown location, in this picture released on May 30, 2023. Sudanese Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo

View original: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamists-wield-hidden-hand-sudan-conflict-military-sources-say-2023-06-28/

[Ends]

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Post script from Sudan Watch Editor:

Cartoon by Omar Dafallah, published in Radio Dabanga's report below.

Caption: Civilians who were killed for their protests against the actions of the military and Rapid Support Forces are now being asked to defend Sudan for Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan 

- Cartoon by Omar Dafallah (RD)

Read more in report at Radio Dabanga, Thur 29 Jun 2023: El Burhan calls for Sudan’s ‘young and capable’ civilians to fight against RSF https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/el-burhan-calls-for-sudans-young-and-capable-civilians-to-fight-against-rsf )

[Ends]

- - -

UPDATED Fri 30 Jun 2023 00:25 GMT+1 - added the following:

Report at Sudan Tribune

Published Tues 27 Jun 2023 - here is an excerpt:

Burhan calls on Sudanese youth to join the army

Sudan’s political parties have called for an end to the war and negotiations to integrate the RSF ahead of an inclusive political conference. For their part, the armed groups in Darfur that have signed a peace deal have declared their neutrality.

The SPLM-N, led by Malik Agar, is now fighting alongside the army after its full integration. In contrast, the SPLM-N led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu in the Nuba Mountains and the Blue Nile has recently launched attacks against the Sudanese army, speaking about its failure to protect civilians.

Al-Burhan announced a one-day truce on the first day of Eid and reaffirmed the commitment of the armed forces to transfer power to a civilian government chosen by the Sudanese people. He further denounced the ongoing violations against civilians in Darfur as “ethnic cleansing and genocide.”

Read more: https://sudantribune.com/article274719/

[Ends]

URGENT FROM ALEX DE WAAL - Sudan crisis: Mediators over a barrel in mission to end fighting

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Here is Alex de Waal’s latest take on the current Sudan crisis. Fortunately, it was published yesterday in the form of a carefully worded piece for BBC News. See copy below. 

As usual, it didn't disappoint. I had to read it six times to see if there was any wiggle room in the stance he has taken. There is none, it is crystal clear with no way of misunderstanding this: speed is of the essence.

While reading it, I agreed with every word but my heart sank at not seeing anything that was news to me.

The overall message he conveys in his analysis, without appearing to be dramatic, is the urgent need for speed: that there's no time left to lose on haggling for peace. We're talking hours and days, not weeks.

Also, he didn’t mention justice or for Messrs Burhan and Hemeti to be called to account for their crimes. It seems to me that Alex's advice to the current mediators is this: appease them, agree amnesty for war crimes.

So, after giving it much thought, and it pains me to say this, one side will have to be backed in order to give Sudanese civilians a chance to run their country and army, which means backing Mr Burhan and SAF.

Rewarding Hemeti, treating him as a victor would make the Janjaweed victorious. Unthinkable. He must not have any role leading any part of Sudan or South Sudan. Retire him to Chad where he was born, or to the ICC. 

Over the past 20 years here at Sudan Watch, I've argued strongly in favour of the African Union, for Africa be governed by Africa-led solutions and initiatives, for it to be empowered and lead without outside interference and to be given a seat on the UN Security Council.

Please God stop the fighting, let the world unite in supporting Sudan and South Sudan by providing them with what they need, humanitarian assistance and access to aid until they can stand on their own feet. 

And let them decide what to do with the RSF. Hopefully, Hemeti will disappear peaceably, forever. 

Wish I had time to write a better intro instead of this half-baked draft but as Alex shows in his heavy-duty not light-weight piece, if one reads it carefully: there is not a minute to waste. Seriously. Every minute counts.

______________________________

Report from BBC News

By ALEX DE WAAL

Dated Monday 08 May 2023 - full copy:

Sudan crisis: Mediators over a barrel in mission to end fighting

AFP

With the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, transformed from tranquil city to war zone, Saudi Arabia and the US have called the warring parties to Jeddah to seek agreement on a ceasefire. But as Sudan expert Alex de Waal says, it will just be a short-term, emergency step.

______________________________

There is a dilemma for mediators: whatever decision they take on the format and agenda for emergency talks will determine the path of peace-making in Sudan through to its conclusion.

To silence the guns, the American and Saudi diplomats will deal only with the rival generals who have each sent a three-person negotiating team to Jeddah. 

The agenda is a humanitarian ceasefire, a monitoring mechanism and corridors for aid. Neither side wants to open negotiations towards a political agreement.

The civilian parties and neighbourhood resistance committees, whose non-violent protests brought down the authoritarian regime of long-time leader Omar al-Bashir four years ago, will be onlookers.

It will not be easy to get the two generals to agree to any kind of ceasefire.

The army chief, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, will insist that he represents the legitimate government. He will label Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as "Hemedti", as a rebel.

But Hemedti, his de facto deputy until the clashes, will demand equal status for the two sides.

He will want on a freeze-in-place, leaving his paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters in control of much of Khartoum. Gen Burhan will require a return to the positions in the days before the clashes began.

Getting a compromise means hard bargaining with the generals. 

The mediators need to gain their confidence and assure them that, if they make concessions now, that will not leave them exposed and vulnerable.

The downside is that the two warring parties will then demand the dominant role in political talks and an agenda that suits their interests.

One thing on which Burhan and Hemedti - and the Arab neighbours - agree is that they do not want a democratic government, which had been on the cards before the fighting began. The two military men had run the country since the 2019 which ousted Bashir, refusing to hand power to civilians.

AFP

The real losers are the civilians who helped oust Bashir in 2019 and want elections and a democratic government

Another point of agreement will be amnesty for war crimes.

Negotiations dominated by the generals are likely to end in a peace agreement in which they share the spoils, setting back the prospects for democracy for many more years.

But if the fighting is not stopped soon, Sudan faces state collapse.

Abdalla Hamdok - prime minister of the joint military-civilian government ousted by the generals in 2021 - has said the country's new war threatened to be worse than Syria or Yemen. 

He might have added, worse than Darfur.

Frontline reinforcements

There is a grim predictability about how Sudan's civil wars unfold.

In the opening days, the military commanders - army generals and rebel leaders - are driven by an angry resolve to land a knockout blow on the other side.

Combat is fierce as each side focuses its attacks, and it is easy to identify who is on which side - and who is staying neutral.

AFP

The RSF has its roots in Darfur where some fighters are alleged to have been involved in what the International Criminal Court considers a genocide

We saw this when the Sudanese civil war broke out in 1983, again in Darfur 20 years later, and in the conflicts in Abyei, Heglig and the Nuba Mountains close to the north-south border at the time when South Sudan separated in 2011.

The first clashes in South Sudan's own civil war in 2013 also looked like this.

On 15 April, when fighting erupted between the army and the RSF, each side vowed to destroy the other.

They concentrated their firepower on each other's strategic positions in the capital, regardless of the massive destruction inflicted on the city and its residents.

Past wars show that if the fighting is not quickly halted, it escalates.

Each side brings reinforcements to the frontline, bids to win over local armed groups that are not yet involved, and solicits help from friendly foreign backers. 

We are in that phase now.

The regular conflict script tells us the adversaries will not be able to sustain their cohesion for long. They will run low on weapons, logistics and money, and cut deals to get more.

The fissures within each fighting coalition will begin to show. Other armed groups will join the fray.

Local communities will arm themselves for self-defence. Outsiders will become entangled. 

All of this is already happening. It is most advanced in Darfur, Hemedti's homeland, which is in flames again.

Up to now, we have not seen civilians being systematically targeted because of their ethnic identity.

But that is a major risk, and as soon as fighters on one side commit mass atrocities, the antagonism will escalate.

The next stage would be conflict spreading across the country, igniting local disputes as it goes.

Armed groups will fragment and coalesce, fighting for control over the lucrative locations such as roads, airports, gold mines and aid distribution centres. 

In Darfur, after the fierce battles and massacres of 2003-04, the region collapsed into anarchy.

The head of the joint African Union-United Nations mission called it "a war of all against all".

This was the lawless political marketplace in which Hemedti thrived, using cash and violence to build a power base.

There is an all-too-real scenario in which the whole of Sudan comes to resemble Darfur.

'Abandoned in moment of need'

The US and Saudi mediators are high-level and even-handed. Unlike other Arab neighbours - Egypt backs Burhan and the United Arab Emirates has ties to Hemedti - Riyadh does not have a favourite. 

The US is threatening sanctions. That is unlikely to deter the generals - Sudan has been under American sanctions since 1989, and military-owned businesses thrived nonetheless. 

GETTY IMAGES

The one thing Gen Burhan (R) and Hemedti (L) are likely to agree about is that neither wants a civilian government

Effective pressure needs international consensus. Everyone - including China and Russia - agrees that the fighting is a disaster.

Protocol at the UN puts the responsibility on its African members to raise the issue at the Security Council. 

Up to now, they have not acted, and the African Union has not even convened its Peace and Security Council.

In the meantime, every passing day risks the war becoming intractable.

Silencing the guns today is a hard-enough task. It would be far harder if there were dozens of fissile armed groups claiming a seat at the table.

What is unprecedented about today's armed conflict is that the battleground is in Khartoum. 

It is generating a humanitarian crisis quite different to the rural displacement and hunger that the country's aid workers have dealt with over the decades.

Civilians trapped in urban neighbourhoods may benefit from old-style food convoys, but they also need utilities - electricity, water, and telecoms. And they desperately need cash. 

With the central bank burned and local commercial bank branches closed, some people rely on mobile phone banking services. Others are penniless.

With the UN and most foreign aid workers evacuated, local resistance committees have stepped into the vacuum, organising essential aid and safe passage for civilians to escape. 

REUTERS

Civilians have become trapped in urban neighbourhoods with truces failing to hold

Many Sudanese feel that the international community abandoned them in their moment of need, and ask that such local, civilian efforts become the lynchpin of an aid effort.

There is a danger that hunger will become a weapon of war, and aid will be a resource manipulated by warlords.

Aid agencies will need to find ways to bypass them and directly help civilians.

There are no simple solutions to Sudan's escalating war. The situation may yet get much worse before it gets better.

And it is likely that whatever decisions are taken in the ceasefire talks - who is represented, on what terms, and with what agenda - will shape the country's future for years to come.

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US.

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View original: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65495539

[Ends]

Sudan: Darfur war leader Abdelwahid El Nur calls for revolution to overthrow Burhan's military coup

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor:  It is difficult to imagine where Sudan and South Sudan would be without Mr Abdelwahid El Nur (pictured below). Putting a complicated situation simply, he and other armed rebels including JEM started the Darfur war in 2003. They have much blood on their hands. 

The photo caption does not indicate where or when the photo was taken. Since shortly after starting the Darfur war he has been living in luxury in Paris and travels widely even as far as Israel. Once in a while he pops up in Sudan on rare occasions when the security situation is unusually calm. 

In the photo he is wearing an expensive jacket. His face still doesn't show any worry lines, guilt, angst, suffering, poverty or malnutrition. He is from Darfur. Years ago he used to brag about the people from Darfur being his people. Until fifteen years ago he had the support of many Sudanese people in and from Darfur. I suspect most of them gave up on him while he sat enjoying himself in Parisian bars and hotels. Maybe he's too shy to visit Darfur incase the world will see how little support he has nowadays. 

He once said he aims to be the president of Sudan. As stated many times here at Sudan Watch, I believe he is too cowardly and not intelligent or skilled enough to preside over Sudan or anything else. In the report below by Netherlands-based Radio Dabanga one can see how he states the obvious and uses the words and ideas other people have already thought of and publicised for years. He's an opportunist, not a leader. 

When he uses his brain and his own words and ideas he sounds like an idiot. I can't recall reading news that explains how he is funded and manages to travel abroad while living safely in Paris. He directed the Darfur war using a satellite phone while sitting in a comfortable armchair in a Parisian hotel. 

If he made sense and was a genuinely brave freedom fighter with realistic and good intentions not only for the people of Darfur but for all Sudanese people, he could be someone to respect and admire. Frankly speaking, seeing his face makes me feel sick. I've observed how much death and destruction his idiotic thinking and actions have caused. Deep down he must know he's responsible for the suffering of millions of Sudanese people. I find it odd that journalists fail to explain how he lives and how he is funded.

The following report respectfully gives him a platform from which to pontificate his nonsense, none of which he deserves. In my view, he's a dodgy character and a deluded chancer. He reminds me of Tintin.

Copy of news report at and by Radio Dabanga.org

Dated 4 November 2021 - KHARTOUM

Sudan rebel leader Abdelwahid El Nur calls for ‘comprehensive popular revolution to overthrow coup’

Photo: The head of the mainstream Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-AW), Abdelwahid El Nur (File photo)

The head of the mainstream Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-AW), Abdelwahid El Nur, has called for “a comprehensive popular revolution in order to overthrow the coup and restore Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok”, and calling on the resistance committees “not to accept any compromise”.

In an interview with Radio Dabanga broadcast today, El Nur asserts that “the salvation of Sudan lies in the restructuring of the military institution,” and called for the reintegration of all military and paramilitary forces into a single unified army, with a combat doctrine aimed at defending the citizens and protecting the land and the constitution, and non-interference in politics.

‘The army’s intervention to suppress the demonstrations is an attempt to turn the peaceful uprising into a bloody one…’

He considers the army’s intervention to suppress the demonstrations as “an attempt to turn the peaceful uprising into a bloody one,” stressing the need to adhere to peace. He stressed that the people’s will is stronger than all weapons.

El Nur accused the military institution of committing crimes in the south, Darfur, the Nuba Mountains, the Blue Nile and the East since 56, and said that it had committed genocide, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity and caused the displacement of millions, and created militias and mujahideen.

‘Sudan possesses the human and economic resources that can rescue it from the current situation…’

On the Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue initiative adopted by the movement, the rebel leader said that the initiative aims to reach the state of institutions and form a unified national army. He stressed the need to adhere to PM Abdallah Hamdok’s government “to move from a state of obstruction to future horizons”, explaining that Sudan possesses the human and economic resources that can rescue it from the current situation through a national project. He called for giving priority to the interests of the Sudanese people, dealing with foreign countries according to their positions, and helping Sudan to get out of the crisis in order to reach a civil state and a civil government.

View original: https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/sudan-rebel-leader-abdelwahid-el-nur-calls-for-comprehensive-popular-revolution-to-overthrow-coup

Why Sudan’s coup leader Gen Burhan risked a blatant power grab - Who can trust him to keep his word?

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor:  Here below is a copy of Professor Dr. Alex de Waal’s latest Sudan coup analysis, published at BBC NEWS in the early hours of Wed 27 Oct 2021. British-born Alex (pictured below) is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US. 

If you zoom in on the photo of Alex you can see some of the books are about Sudan and South Sudan. The large grey book with the title MASS STARVATION printed in a white circle is one of his many published works. This is not the most flattering photo available online. I have chosen it because it conveys some of the weariness and exhaustion he must feel after the miles of serious papers he has read during his lifetime. The deeply sad and difficult subjects he studies and writes about are, I believe, succeeding in making an important contribution towards world peace. 

The twitter account of World Peace Foundation @WorldPeaceFdtn is at: https://twitter.com/WorldPeaceFdtn

A list of published works by Alex de Waal is at Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_de_Waal

IMAGE, Professor Dr. Alex de Waal. IMAGE SOURCE, World Peace Foundation, Tufts University: 

https://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2018/05/14/new-video-alex-de-waal-on-mass-starvation/

Sudan coup: Why the army is gambling with the future

Analysis at BBC NEWS online

By ALEX DE WAAL

Africa analyst

Published Wednesday 27 October 2021

Sudan's coup leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has taken a leap into the dark. 

He has endangered Sudan's international standing as a nascent democracy, imperilled essential debt relief and international aid, and jeopardised peace with rebels in Darfur and the Nuba Mountains.

He was head of Sudan's Sovereign Council and the face of the army in the country's civilian-military cohabitation - until Monday, when he seized complete power.

He dissolved the country's civilian cabinet, arresting Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and other prominent civilians with whom the military had agreed to share power until elections were held next year.

The general's autocratic ambitions were no secret.

Over the last months, he showed impatience with Mr Hamdok's leadership, signalling that a strong ruler was needed to save the nation.

At a recent military-backed demonstration in the capital, Khartoum, protesters blamed Mr Hamdok for deteriorating living conditions - not helped by a blockade at the main port in the east which has led to shortages.

Sudanese democrats were alert to the army's stratagems, which seemed to be copied from the playbook that led to Abdul Fatah al-Sisi's military takeover in Egypt in 2013.

The Sudan Professionals Association and the multitude of neighbourhood committees that had orchestrated the non-violent protests which brought down the 30-year rule of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019 prepared for a new round of street demonstrations.

IMAGE: Source EPA. Caption, Protestors are determined not to allow the army to steal the revolution that saw Omar al-Bashir ousted in 2019

Foreign diplomats were also worried. US Special Envoy Jeffrey Feldman visited Khartoum at the weekend to press for agreement between the generals and the civilians. He left the city on Sunday with - he thought - a pact agreed.

The coup was staged hours later, leaving the Americans not only dismayed but outraged.

Making it clear that they had been deceived, the US administration has "paused" a $700m (£508m) financial assistance package.

An even bigger issue is the status of Sudan's debt relief package, recently negotiated by Mr Hamdok.

After two years of painful delays, international aid to salvage Sudan's economy was finally in prospect - and is now in jeopardy.

The African Union (AU), the United Nations, the East African regional body Igad and all of Sudan's Western donors have condemned the coup and called for a return to civilian rule.

The Arab League has also called for the constitutional formula to be respected. The grouping is usually in step with the Egyptian government, raising the question of how much Gen Burhan can count on the backing of Cairo.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which provided crucial financial aid to Gen Burhan in 2019, have stayed silent so far.

Their sympathies probably lie with the army strongman, but they will also know they cannot cover the costs of bailing out Sudan.

Gen Burhan was already the most powerful man in the country, his role legitimised by the August 2019 power-sharing deal between the military and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), a loose coalition of civilian groups.

So why would he risk it all on a blatant power grab?

Commercial empires

According to that agreement, Gen Burhan was due to step down as chairman of the Sovereign Council next month.

At that point, a civilian chosen by the FFC would become the head of state, and the civilians in government would be better placed to push ahead with implementing key items on their agenda.

“Not only was the army commanding a vast share of the national budget, but military-owned companies operate with tax exemptions and often alleged corrupt contracting procedures" 

- Alex de Waal, Africa analyst

IMAGE: Source, GETTY

One is accountability for human rights violations. The government is committed in principle to handing over ex-President Bashir to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

His former lieutenants - including Gen Burhan and leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces Gen Mohamed Hamdan "Hemeti" Dagolo - wanted him to be tried in Sudan and not in The Hague.

They have good reason to fear that Bashir will name them as culprits in the alleged atrocities meted out during the Darfur war.

Gen Burhan and his fellow officers have even more reason to fear that investigation into the massacre in Khartoum in June 2019 would also point the finger of blame in their direction.

It took place two months after Bashir's removal by the army, when peaceful protesters were calling for civilian rule.

Tackling corruption and implementing security sector reform were other agenda items that worried the generals.

Take the cumbersomely named "Commission for Dismantling the June 30 1989 Regime, Removal of Empowerment and Corruption, and Recovering Public Funds."

This was not only exposing and uprooting the network of companies owned by the Islamists forced out of power in 2019, but also the tentacles of the commercial empires owned by senior generals.

Mr Hamdok had become increasingly outspoken in his criticism of the military entanglement in the economy.

Not only was the army commanding a vast - and still-increasing - share of the national budget, but military-owned companies operate with tax exemptions and often allegedly corrupt contracting procedures.

Placing the army under proper civilian control was also a priority for the next stage of the transitional period.

Risk of rebel action

Gen Burhan is claiming he is keeping the transition to democracy on track - and has promised a technocratic civilian government and elections in two years.

Most Sudanese see this as an unconvincing façade.

The crackdown has dissolved the key trade unions and professional groups that organised the previous street protests. Internet and social media are largely shut down. Troops have fired on protesters, reportedly killing 10.

VIDEO: Media Caption, Demonstrators take to the streets of Khartoum to protest against the arrests

Street activists have overcome such clampdowns before and forced the army to back down, most notably in the aftermath of the June 2019 killings.

The generals must also face the reality that the civil war in parts of the country is not over.

A peace agreement last year brought several armed opposition groups into government - but no deal was yet reached with the biggest two rebel forces.

IMAGE: Source, AFP. Caption, Gen Burhan (L) and civilian PM Hamdok (R) were part of a power-sharing administration

In Darfur there is the Sudan Liberation Movement headed by Abdel Wahid al-Nur, and in the Nuba Mountains of South Kordofan there is the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North, led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu.

Both command popular support and have shown military resilience. Both were in peace talks with the government and had confidence in Mr Hamdok. The coup threatens renewed conflict.

With his unconstitutional seizure of power, Gen Burhan has taken a huge gamble.

He is offering no answers to Sudan's most pressing issues - the economy, democratisation and peace - and is risking turmoil and bloodshed at home and pariah status abroad.

In July 2019, following the army's violent crackdown on the democracy movement, the "quartet" of the US, the UK, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, working hand-in-glove with the AU, stepped in to press for a negotiated solution - which followed the next month.

A similar process may be needed to bring Sudan back from the brink. The problem is, after Monday, who can trust Gen Burhan to keep his word?

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US.

More on the Sudan coup:

• IN PICTURES: Sudan coup protesters take to streets
• EXPLAINER: Sudan coup: What you need to know
• ANALYSIS: Sounding the alarm for Sudan’s democracy

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Published 9 September 2019

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Source - BBC NEWS, view original at:  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59050473