Can Sudan Achieve Peace and Democratic Transition? (Dame Rosalind Marsden)

Article from Chatham House, UK

Written by DAME ROSALIND MARSDEN

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme

Dated 09 August 2019

Can Sudan Achieve Peace and Democratic Transition?

• Sudan has a unique opportunity to embrace democratic transition but there is no room for complacency
• Comprehensive reforms and a united democratic front will be key to achieving peace, freedom and justice, as will continued international pressure

Photo: Sudanese demonstrators in Khartoum celebrate a hard-won transitional agreement on 4 August 2019. The agreement provides for a joint civilian-military body to oversee a civilian government and parliament for a three year transition period. Photo: Getty Images.

A compromise agreement

After more than seven months of peaceful pro-democracy protests, leading to the fall of former President Omar al Bashir’s regime in April, Sudan’s Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the opposition coalition of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) agreed on 4 August to form a civilian-led transitional government, paving the way for democratic transition. 

The agreement is a step forward but still leaves considerable power in the hands of the military. Given the power imbalance between the military and unarmed civilians, the FFC concluded that a compromise was needed in order to establish a transitional government, however imperfect, so that civilians could push their reform agenda from inside government and avoid a political vacuum. Such a vacuum could leave room for counter-revolutionary coups or escalating violence by Sudan’s many security forces.

The TMC realized the limits of its power when its attempt to halt the revolution with a brutal crackdown on 3 June backfired, sparking international outrage. Defiant protestors continued to demonstrate, with many Sudanese determined to sustain the revolution and the FFC able to mobilize mass support.

Strong African and international pressure for the rapid formation of a civilian-led transitional authority, US/UK diplomatic intervention with the TMC’s backers, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, and a coup attempt by counter-revolutionary Islamist forces may all have persuaded the TMC that they had to strike a deal with the pro-democracy movement.

Will Sudan have a genuinely civilian-led transitional government?

Mediated by the African Union and Ethiopia, the deal provides for a transitional period of three years and three months to prepare for national elections in 2022. During this period, the government will be composed of three transitional bodies: a joint military/civilian Sovereign Council acting as a collective head of state, with six civilian and five military members; a civilian prime minister and Cabinet of technocrats; and a Legislative Council to be formed within 90 days.

The constitutional declaration initialled on 4 August builds on a power-sharing deal agreed in July and details the powers and responsibilities of the three bodies. A signing ceremony is expected to be held on 17 August with the members of the new government to be announced shortly afterwards.

Some opposition forces have criticized the agreement for being too weak, particularly as the military will chair the Sovereign Council for the first 21 months and will be able to veto its decisions. FFC negotiators point to gains made in the constitutional declaration, such as confirmation that the FFC will have 67 per cent of the seats in the Legislative Council, the increasingly powerful RSF Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia will come under army control and government officials will not enjoy blanket immunity from prosecution.

But political dynamics will matter more than pieces of paper. The unity of FFC forces has been strained by the negotiation process, continuing street violence and internal bickering. If civilian authority is to prevail, the FFC will need to create a united political front.

Ending Sudan’s internal wars

While civilian rule and civic rights are the main demands of protestors in urban areas, Sudanese living in conflict zones attach more importance to achieving peace and ending the marginalization of Sudan’s peripheries.

The armed movements in the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), which fought for years against Bashir’s regime, have stressed that peace and democratization must go hand in hand if the revolution is to enable people in the peripheries to become equal citizens and take full part in national elections – putting an end to long-established forms of governance which favoured a privileged political elite in Khartoum.

The constitutional declaration recognizes that achieving a comprehensive peace settlement should be the first priority for the transitional period and includes a peace agenda developed with the SRF.

However, the SRF are calling for the constitutional declaration to be amended before it is signed so that formation of the transitional government can be calibrated with the peace talks. Solutions will also have to be found for the armed movements who remain outside the agreement.

Other challenges facing the new transitional government

The incoming transitional government will face huge challenges, including strong public pressure for justice and accountability, especially for the 3 June massacre, and a national economy in collapse that will require immediate stabilization and fundamental structural reforms.

The biggest challenge facing the government will be dismantling the Islamist deep state created over thirty years by the former regime, which took control of all state institutions and key sectors of the economy, including hundreds of businesses owned by the military-security apparatus.

Key to dismantling the deep state will be the implementation of a comprehensive programme of security sector reform aimed at establishing a professional and inclusive national army and reducing the power of the intelligence service.

Much will depend on whether it is possible to control the RSF by reducing its funding from the Gulf states and the gold trade, as well as containing the political ambitions of its commander, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemeti), who will be an influential figure during the transition.

Recruiting from Chad and Niger as well as from the Janjaweed Arab militia in Darfur, the RSF is an ill-disciplined transboundary militia, which could destabilize Sudan as well as the wider region. As a first step, the RSF should be withdrawn from all law enforcement activities across Sudan.

Another challenge will be to ensure proper representation of youth and women in the new governance structures. These groups were the driving force of the revolution but have been largely excluded from FFC decision-making bodies. Including these new social forces and other marginalized groups in the political process will be crucial if Sudan is to transform established patterns of power and privilege. 

Robust support for security sector reform, as well as political and economic restructuring should be prioritized by the international community if there is to be any prospect of democratic transition, development and stability. Given its size and strategic geopolitical position, the stakes in Sudan and for the wider region are high.

With its vibrant civil society, plural political environment and new social forces, Sudan has a unique opportunity to embrace democratic transition and equal citizenship. If this opening is wasted, the country could be plunged into further chaos or revert to military dictatorship. 

View original article here:  https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/can-sudan-achieve-peace-and-democratic-transition

BBC has evidence suggesting attack on protesters in Khartoum Sudan June 3 was ordered from the top

THE BBC has uncovered evidence that suggests the attack on protesters in Sudan on 03 June 2019 was ordered from the top and planned in advance.  The internet is now back on in the country so even more footage has emerged online.  BBC Africa Eye has analysed over 300 mobile phone videos shot in Khartoum that morning, piecing them together into a detailed account of a massacre in which dozens of people were killed. 

Here is the schedule for a 30-minute BBC film broadcast from the UK starting today:

Sudan's Livestream Massacre

Sat 10 Aug 2019  18:30 Local time 

Sat 10 Aug 2019  23:30 Local time 

Sun 11 Aug 2019 05:30 Local time 

Sun 11 Aug 2019 11:30 Local time 

Thu 15 Aug 2019 10:30 Local time 

SOURCE: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/n3ct6rnv

Evidence points to TMC's Hemeti and RSF responsible for June 3 attack on protestors in Khartoum Sudan

ALL evidence points to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) being responsible for the 03 June attack on protestors in Khartoum, Sudan and the deputy chair of the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and de facto ruler of Sudan, General Mohamed 'Hemeti' Dagalo giving the order for the attack. Here is a copy of another important tweet by Sudan expert Prof Eric Reeves @sudanreeves dated Wednesday 07 August 2019:

Absent an independent, int’l investigation of the "June 3 Massacre," we are left with the fact that all evidence points to #RSF responsibility, with #Hemeti giving the order for the assault. Despite his conspicuous responsibility, Hemeti continues to lie shamelessly, viciously:

Absent an independent, int’l investigation of the "June 3 Massacre," we are left with the fact that all evidence points to #RSF responsibility, with #Hemeti giving the order for the assault. Despite his conspicuous responsibility, Hemeti continues to lie shamelessly, viciously: pic.twitter.com/Ag34sM1hrr

— Eric Reeves (@sudanreeves) 7 August 2019

To visit the above tweet click here: https://twitter.com/sudanreeves/status/1159143025957888000

Rome Statute of the ICC Article 7 Crimes Against Humanity: Ongoing murder of civilians in Sudan by the TMC junta meets definitional threshold

HERE is a copy of a tweet by Sudan expert Prof Eric Reeves @sudanreeves dated 01 August 2019: Our best definition of “crimes against humanity” comes from the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (#ICC). Though the most difficult class of atrocity crimes to define, ongoing murder of civilians in Sudan by the #TMC junta clearly meets the definitional threshold.

Our best definition of “crimes against humanity” comes from the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (#ICC). Though the most difficult class of atrocity crimes to define, ongoing murder of civilians in Sudan by the #TMC junta clearly meets the definitional threshold: pic.twitter.com/R6Vo6IpVJF

— Eric Reeves (@sudanreeves) 1 August 2019

To visit the above tweet click here: https://twitter.com/sudanreeves/status/1157028222015627264

Sudan economy collapse if deal not reached soon

ECONOMIC concerns were among the initial sparks for the protests, which broke out in December when the government announced it would triple the price of bread. Everyone is alert and waiting. If this state of tension and uncertainty continues, the economy will collapse. Full story here below.

Sudan in economic turmoil in absence of a working government

Article by AFP Agency Staff
Thursday, 18 July 2019 - 15:32

Mall operators, waiting for the transition to civilian rule, say sales are down as much as 40%, with investors and consumers playing a waiting game

Photo: Haj Abul Fadel, a Sudanese millionaire businessman, is pictured at his shopping centre in Khartoum on July 17, 2019. Picture: AFP/EBRAHIM HAMID

Khartoum — Sales have tumbled at Haj Abul Fadel’s shopping centres in Sudan, where he and fellow business owners fear that months of political turmoil could bring on a full-scale economic collapse.

Sudan’s ruling generals and protesters inked a deal on Wednesday aimed at installing a civilian administration and breaking months of political deadlock. But the country’s fragile economy has already been hard hit by months of mass protests, which led to the military council’s toppling of long-time president Omar al-Bashir in April.

Demonstrators have continued to demand a transition to civilian rule, keeping up their campaign despite a June 3 crackdown on a protest sit-in that left dozens dead.

Abul Fadel said the unrest had slashed his overall sales by 20% to 25% — and as much as 40% for some items. “The government has yet to announce its economic policies, and as an investor, I can’t take any decisions in the current climate.” 

The millionaire businessman depends heavily on imports to stock his five Khartoum malls, but he said many firms have stopped bringing in goods due to the uncertainty.

Fellow entrepreneur Mohammad Hussein Madwi, who owns a string of agricultural and manufacturing firms, echoed his concerns. “Sales are down by at least 30% because of the lack of demand and the collapse of the Sudanese pound,” he said. “The state of political uncertainty makes me hesitant to invest or import goods, so things have pretty much come to a standstill.”

Since the last devaluation of the pound in October by the then Sudanese authorities, the currency has plunged by a further 70% against the dollar on the black market.

Inflation has meanwhile fallen from a high of 70% in December to below 50%, according to the country’s central statistics bureau.

Mother of seven Hanadi Mohammad, shopping at one of Abul Fadel’s malls in northern Khartoum, said the lack of liquidity was stopping her spending. “I don’t know how long we can live like this,” she said, walking past household appliances which, despite heavy discounts, were sitting unsold on the shelves.

‘Rock bottom’

Economic concerns were among the initial sparks for the protests, which broke out in December when the government announced it would triple the price of bread.

Months later, the army and protest leaders have agreed on the form of the country’s governing institutions, but further talks will be needed to settle other contentious issues. This means political uncertainty — and economic woes — are likely to haunt the country for some time to come.

Decades of US sanctions had already devastated Sudan’s economy before the protests broke out in December. The demonstrations quickly grew into a nationwide movement against Bashir, and the resulting unrest, along with persistent power cuts, soon hit the economy.

“Trade activity has been at rock bottom since January,” said Khaled al-Tijani, a prominent business journalist. “The economy is suffering from a lack of confidence because of the lack of a government to oversee it.”

In April, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates announced a joint $3bn package of economic aid for Sudan, including a $500m deposit in Khartoum’s central bank to strengthen the currency. The remainder is allocated for food, medicine and petrochemicals purchases.

Agriculture is a major sector and a key source of income for most of Sudan’s 40-million inhabitants. The latest crisis has hit farmers hard, particularly as the collapsing pound has stopped them importing agricultural chemicals.

On Sunday, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi sent Sudan an emergency batch of more than 50,000 tonnes of fertilisers and other agricultural supplies, according to the official Saudi Press Agency.

Faisal Mohammad, an importer of agricultural supplies, said the lack of foreign currency has hit imports hard. “Even if they are available, we’re hit by the weakness of the pound and the rising price of goods, as well as a lack of confidence among buyers, all of which negatively impacts farming operations.” 

Tijani warned that damage to such a vital sector could harm Sudan’s economy more broadly — bad news for entrepreneurs such as Abul Fadel.

“Everyone is alert and waiting,” Abul Fadel said. “If this state of tension and uncertainty continues, the economy will collapse.” For the tycoon, there is only one way forward. “A political deal between the military council and [protest leaders] is the only way out of the current economic situation.” 

SOURCE: AFP

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/africa/2019-07-18-sudan-in-economic-turmoil-in-absence-of-a-working-government/

Sudan: Troika (UK, US, Norway) encourage constitutional agreement to form civilian-led govt

From: British Embassy Khartoum
Published 18 July 2019
Sudan: Troika statement, July 2019

The UK, US and Norway have issued a Troika statement welcoming the agreement reached by the Transitional Military Council and Forces for Freedom and Change.

Photo: UK Government's Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London

The Troika (Norway, the UK and US) welcome the agreement reached by the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) on a political declaration that sets out the structure and broad responsibilities for a transitional government. We hope that these institutions can gain the trust and support of the Sudanese people.

The Troika also commends the efforts of the African Union, Ethiopian and Sudanese mediators in helping the parties achieve agreement. We encourage the parties to quickly conclude the parallel constitutional agreement and form the civilian-led transitional government, which the Sudanese people have courageously and peacefully demanded since December 2018.

We welcome the commitment of the parties to support an independent investigation of June 3 and other acts of violence, to negotiate an end to Sudan’s internal conflicts and to pursue economic, legal and constitutional reforms during the 39-month transition period. The Troika looks forward to engaging a civilian-led transitional government as it works to achieve the Sudanese people’s aspirations for responsive governance, peace, justice and development.

SOURCE: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sudan-troika-statement-july-2019

Explainer: What's at stake in Sudan's transition? The 2 sides still need to sign a constitutional declaration

Note from Sudan Watch Editor: To be clear, the two sides - Transitional Military Council (TMC) and Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) - still need to sign a constitutional declaration that is meant to complete the political deal. In my experience of blogging news about agreements signed in Sudan things change before the ink is dry, creating delay, after delay, after delay, going on year, after year, after year. Sigh.

Article by Reuters

Published Thursday 18 July 2019 4:35 PM

Explainer: What's at stake in Sudan's transition?

CAIRO (Reuters) - Sudan’s ruling military council and an alliance of protest and opposition groups have signed a political accord on a three-year transition towards elections.

But progress towards a final deal has been slow and marred by violence, casting doubt on protesters’ hopes for civilian rule and democracy.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

In December, protests triggered by an economic crisis swept across Sudan, demanding an end to Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year rule.

On April 11 the military toppled and arrested Bashir, announcing the formation of a transitional military council.

But protests continued, demanding the transition be civilian-led.

The military council and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) alliance began talks, which soon stalled over the make-up of a sovereign council to steer the transition.

At dawn on June 3, security forces — led according to witnesses by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — moved to clear a sit-in outside the Defence Ministry in Khartoum. Doctors linked to the opposition said 128 people were killed in the raid and ensuing violence. The government has confirmed 61 deaths.

Talks collapsed, resuming after several weeks under pressure from African-led mediators and after massive protests on June 30. Agreement on a power-sharing deal was announced on July 5.

WHO ARE THE KEY ACTORS?

The military council is formed of seven members, led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Its most prominent member, however, is his deputy General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who also leads the RSF and is widely known as Hemedti.

Both Burhan and Hemedti have close ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates due to Sudan’s participation in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

The driving force in the FFC has been the Sudanese Professionals Association, which rose to prominence coordinating the protests against Bashir. It has no leader or strict hierarchy, though top members include Mohammad Naji al-Assam and Ahmed al-Rabie.

Prominent constituents of the alliance also include the Umma Party led by former prime minister Sadiq al-Mahdi and three of Sudan’s five rebel groups.

WHAT ARE THE NEXT STEPS?

The two sides still need to sign a constitutional declaration that is meant to complete the political deal.

That would allow transitional bodies to be formed, including a sovereign council that would include five officers selected by the military council, five civilians chosen by the FFC and another civilian to be agreed by both sides.

The initial agreement also provides for a government of technocrats and an independent investigation into recent violence.

WHAT HAS HELD UP A DEAL?

The deal was meant to be signed days after its announcement, but was thrown into doubt by a demand from the military council that its members be granted immunity from prosecution.

Blanket immunity is strongly opposed by the protest movement, already concerned about how an independent investigation could be guaranteed with the military still in charge.

They continue to hold rallies to honour those killed since protests started in December and call for accountability for their deaths.

More broadly, Sudan’s security forces see themselves as the country’s natural rulers and want to protect their sprawling economic interests.

“Their natural tendency is to surrender nothing and to maintain ...the last word in all matters of the state – which was the situation under Bashir essentially,” said Magdi El Gizouli, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute.

“...Upturning this arrangement is a formidable task.”

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

Sudan has a recent history of civil conflicts including in the western region of Darfur and South Kordofan and Blue Nile in the south. These could flare again if political turmoil continues.

Suffering for Sudanese civilians already subjected to a severe economic crisis could also intensify. Of a population of 44 million, more than 5 million people are in need of assistance and nearly 2 million displaced, according to the United Nations.

WHAT ARE THE STAKES INTERNATIONALLY?

Sudan sits in a volatile region in northeast Africa. Instability could have an impact on war-torn South Sudan, where a fragile peace deal was signed last September, and on Libya to the north, where fighting has recently escalated.

Wealthy Gulf states have an interest in Sudan because of its agricultural potential and its Red Sea ports. The RSF is contributing troops to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

European powers and Egypt are concerned about potential northward flows of migrants from Sudan, which is on one of the transit routes towards the Mediterranean.

Reporting by Aidan Lewis, Khalid Abdelaziz and Nadine Awadalla; Writing by Aidan Lewis; editing by John Stonestreet

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

SOURCE: https://in.reuters.com/article/sudan-politics-idINKCN1UD27

Sudan opposition in disagreement with the way power-sharing deal has been done and the content

Article from africanews.com

By AFP Thursday, 18 July 2019 

Sudan opposition skeptical about power-sharing deal

“We are not against the agreement in its sense, but we are in disagreement with the way it has been done and the content.”

Sudan’s opposition has raised skepticism about the recently signed power sharing deal.

After weeks of protests following the overthrow of long serving leader, Omar al-Bashir, military rulers finally inked the long-awaited deal.

But now, the opposition is raising some questions.

“Still in spite or irrespective of what had happened this morning, we are still open-minded to sit with leaders of FFC (Forces of Freedom and Change) to bring the agreement, whatever agreement they signed this morning back to the drawing table, to develop and improve it and make it acceptable to all Sudanese”, said Gibril Ibrahim, chairperson of Justice and Equality Movement.

Gibril Ibrahim, who is also leader of the Sudanese Revolutionary Front, detailed some demands.

“We are not against the agreement in its sense, the purpose, but we are in disagreement with the way it has been done and the content. We were here to develop the content, to make sure that the issues that we consider instrumental, such as issues of peace, marginalization, issues of the vulnerable people in Sudan. FFC (Forces of Freedom and Change) has not yet done so.

The agreement reached on Wednesday between the military and the protesters also provides for the establishment of a “sovereign council”.

It’s a body responsible for managing the transition for a little over three years, first led by the military and then by civilians.

SOURCE AFP 

https://www.africanews.com/2019/07/18/sudan-opposition-skeptical-about-power-sharing-deal/

Sudan: TMC transitional deal casts spotlight on role of Hemeti’s RSF militia fighters

Article from Bloomberg.com

By: Mohammed Alamin and Okech Francis

Published: 18 July 2019, 05:00 BST Updated on 18 July 2019, 15:55 BST

Devils on Horseback Leader Holds Fate of Sudan in His Hands

- Transitional deal casts spotlight on role of Hamdan’s fighters

- Notorious militia is dominant force after Bashir’s overthrow

Photo: Mohamed Hamdan on July 17. Photographer: Ebrahim Hamid/AFP via Getty Images

A one-time camel trader turned leader of a Sudanese militia known as the “devils on horseback” now holds the fate of Africa’s third-largest nation in his hands.

Known popularly as Hemeti, Mohamed Hamdan dominates the military council that overthrew President Omar al-Bashir in April. He also commands the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group accused of killing more than 100 protesters in June in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum. Swaggering and unaccountable, his fighters have become the most tangible obstacle to Sudan’s escape from three decades of dictatorship.

“All roads forward in Sudan now run into the Hemeti problem,” said Alan Boswell, an analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. “Over time, his power will need to be reined in, yet any action against him at the moment risks civil war.”

The stakes go beyond Sudan, which has been rocked by coups, insurgencies and mass protests since independence in 1956. The battle for its future after the fall of Bashir -- an Islamist general and international pariah accused of war crimes -- has become another battleground for the biggest power rivalries in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been drawn in, looking to retain influence in the Red Sea nation as their tussles with Iran and Turkey for regional supremacy spread to the Horn of Africa.

The oil-rich Gulf nations in April pledged a combined $3 billion in aid to Sudan, which has been ravaged by decades of economic mismanagement that helped ignite the nationwide unrest in December. The promise of cash has given breathing space to the country’s new rulers -- mainly Bashir’s old guard -- and fueled opposition doubts there’ll be a genuine democratic transition as the elite seeks to defend its privileges.

Still, negotiations between the council and the opposition group that led the protests may have yielded a breakthrough. A deal signed Wednesday would see civilian and military representatives form an 11-seat sovereign council with executive responsibilities, and elections would be held after three years.

Photo: Tires burn during protests in Khartoum on June 3. Photographer: Ashraf Shazly/AFP via Getty Images

While the global outcry over the Khartoum massacre gave Sudan’s military rulers little choice but to reach a deal, they’ll probably seek to stall its enactment, according to Salah Aldoma, a professor of international relations at Omdurman Islamic University in Khartoum’s twin city. Hemeti’s denials of responsibility for the Khartoum attack have veered from blaming infiltrators in uniform, to vowing to hang any of his fighters who participated.

Feared Fighters

Rights groups including Amnesty International say Hemeti’s forces must withdraw from the city. On the streets, one can sense a palpable fear of his fighters, who regularly harass youths deemed sympathetic to the protests. Many residents make sure they’re home by nightfall to avoid any run-ins with the feared security services.

The militia earlier this week said in a statement it would be “gradually withdrawn from Khartoum in accordance with the security situation,” the state-run SUNA news agency reported.

Photo: Mohamed Hamdan surrounded by Rapid Support Forces in Qarri on June 15. Photographer: Ashraf Shazly/AFP via Getty Images

Hemeti’s vertiginous rise saw him deploy his fighters alongside Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The RSF, a reconstituted version of the brutal counter-insurgency group known as the janjaweed he helped organize in the western region of Darfur, is now regarded as Sudan’s most powerful military force.

While Sudan’s Gulf backers hope the nation follows the Egyptian path of military rule after the Arab Spring, they’re missing a key difference, said Boswell: “Sudan lacks a cohesive military.”

Ceding Influence

The army -- and the military council -- are officially led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, a lieutenant-general who helped coordinate Sudan’s contribution to the Yemen campaign. Burhan, though, has ceded influence in public to Hemeti, who regularly addresses rallies aired on state TV.

Hemeti’s alleged role in the violence would complicate any designs he might have on the presidency. Much of Sudan’s remaining elite are desperate to improve relations with the U.S., which lifted a two-decade-old sanctions regime in 2017.

“Hemeti is looking for some guarantees so he can make a safe exit,” said Aldoma. “His use was only as a military assistant to oust Bashir.”

The Darfuri warlord is also likely to face resistance from the elites from the Nile Valley hundreds of miles to the east who’ve traditionally led the country.

While the RSF has helped them tame the protest movement and sideline some of Bashir’s hard-line Islamist supporters, the rest of Sudan’s military council could be ready to jettison him at a later date, according to Asiel Alamin, a prominent activist.

But in the short-term, any move to check Hemeti’s power risks splitting the council, said Harry Verhoeven, author of ‘Water, Civilisation and Power in Sudan.’

“It’s a dangerous proposition and very few actors in the army, RSF or other security forces have a realistic vision of political order beyond the next couple of weeks,” he said.

(Update with statement from RSF in second paragraph under Feared Fighters subheadline.)

SOURCE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/devils-on-horseback-leader-holds-fate-of-sudan-in-his-hands

FILM: RSF beat old man for being on street in Sudan

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: I cannot verify the following tweet or the film footage. As the internet is still down in Sudan, I feel compelled to share and document some images claiming to be from Sudan. Many people, especially young folk, are taking time and effort, using great creativity and ingenuity in finding ways to get their message out. If genuine, they are courageously and bravely telling the world what is going on in Sudan. I came across this Twitter page and tweet while trawling through many others. I do not know the source. Please excuse me if any images I post are faked. God help these people.

RSF beating and humiliating an old man in his 70’s just for being on the street in Sudan. Who beats an old man? He’s every Sudanese grandfather and it hurts to see this. If you don’t accept your grandfather to be beaten like this please spread awareness. #BlueforSudan pic.twitter.com/Pl59CNRYvC

— Mohamed Abdulwahab (@MohamedAbdulwa) 18 June 2019

To view the above tweet click here: https://twitter.com/MohamedAbdulwa/status/1140821317614223360

Here are some links showing what people are saying online: #Sudan  #SudanUpraising   #السودان #العصيان_المدني_الشامل  #Internet_Blackout_In_Sudan  #IAmTheSudanRevolution 

PHOTO TWEET: Corpse thrown in Nile Sudan... #BlueForSudan... #IAmTheSudanRevolution

Proof of corpse thrown in the Nile... As a human I’m disgusted as a Sudanese in full of rage #BlueForSudan #IAmTheSudanRevolution pic.twitter.com/fsbcDvESVR

— Yem (@YemMELMO) 17 June 2019

To see the above tweet click here: https://twitter.com/YemMELMO/status/1140620822257840128

#BlueForSudan - click here:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23BlueForSudan&src=tyah

 #IAmTheSudanRevolution - click here:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23iamthesudanrevolution&src=typd

BBC Arabic reporter Mohamed Osman in Khartoum confirms that the internet remains blocked despite Sunday's court order

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor:

On Sunday 23 June 2019 this blog Sudan Watch, authored in England, UK and hosted by Google, received some visitors located in Sudan for the first time since 3 June. 

However, a news report published by the BBC yesterday (Mon 24 June) says: 

"A lawyer in Sudan has told the BBC that the internet has been restored after a three-week shutdown - but only for him. 

Abdel-Adheem Hassan on Sunday won a lawsuit against telecoms operator Zain Sudan over the blackout ordered by Sudan's military rulers. 

However, he says his victory is only benefitting him so far as he filed the case in a personal capacity. 

Mr Hassan said he is currently the only civilian in the country able to access the internet without resorting to complicated hacks. 

He said he is going back to court on Tuesday [25 June] to win the right for more Sudanese people. 

"We have a court session tomorrow and another one the day after tomorrow. Hopefully one million people will gain internet access by the end of the week," Mr Hassan added. 

 BBC Arabic reporter Mohamed Osman in Khartoum confirms that the internet remains blocked despite 

Sunday's court order.

To read full story click here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-48744853