Thursday, June 06, 2019

Janjaweed and gunfire in Khartoum Sudan, death toll rising, bodies in Nile, Yasir Arman beaten and arrested

SADLY the security situation in Sudan has deteriorated rapidly over the past few days. Various news reports say the death toll related to protests in Sudan's capital Khartoum is rapidly rising: 100+ deaths including 40+ bodies floating in the Nile, 500+ wounded. Protestors dispersed, streets emptying, situation volatile.

An Associated Press (AP) report 5 June 2019 says the death toll over the past three days is 108 and at least 509 people had been wounded. Here are some extracts. Note, AP writer Bassam Hatoum reported this story in Khartoum and AP writer Samy Magdy reported from Cairo: 

"The reported discovery of the bodies in the Nile suggested that Monday's violent dispersal of the protest movement's main sit-in camp, outside military headquarters, was even bloodier than initially believed. The attack on the camp was led by a notorious paramilitary unit called the Rapid Support Forces, along with other troops who waded into the camp, opening fire and beating protesters.

During the mayhem, the Doctors Committee said witnesses reported seeing bodies loaded into military vehicles to be dumped into the river. The camp was not far from the Blue Nile, just upstream from where it joins the White Nile and then flows north through Sudan and Egypt to the Mediterranean.

The committee said in a statement that a day earlier, militiamen of the Rapid Support Forces were seen pulling 40 bodies from the river and taking them away. It said it was not known where they were taken.

One activist, Amal al-Zein, said the number could be even higher. She said activists and private citizens had pulled dozens more bodies from the Nile in areas near the sit-in and took them to a hospital morgue. "Some bodies have wounds from bullets, others seemed to have beaten and thrown in the Nile," she said."
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Arman beaten and arrested by Sudanese security forces

BRITAIN'S Ambassador in Khartoum, Sudan, Mr Irfan Siddiq posted news on his Twitter page @FCOIrfan today (Wed 5 June) confirming that Mr Yasir Arman, leader of SPLM-N(Agar) has been beaten and arrested by Sudanese security forces. Click here to see the Ambassador's tweet:  
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HERE is a news analysis by BBC Africa editor Fergal Keane OBE. I have reprinted it in full because it is so well researched with reliable photos and film footage showing the gunfire in Khartoum. Today's technology makes it so easy for anyone to alter reports, photos and film for circulating online as propaganda. The BBC uses sophisticated technology to carefully check and verify news, images and film clips before publishing.
Another reason for reprinting it in full is this: in the weeks, months and years ahead it will slip out of the BBC's headlines while here at Sudan Watch it will remain alive with a spotlight shining brightly on the truth.
Rest in peace all who were murdered by their own government + + +

Sudan crisis: Return of the feared Janjaweed
By Fergal Keane
BBC's Africa editor
Tuesday 4 June 2019



















Protesters set ablaze tyres to try to stop Sudan's security forces on Monday 
AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Sudan's military has faced mounting international condemnation for its violent attack on protesters which reportedly left at least 30 dead. But there were clear signs this was likely to happen.

Even when the crowds were at their largest and most joyous there was a sense of looming danger.

You did not have to walk far from the sit-in to encounter the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) lounging on their pick-up trucks.

Unlike the regular army these militiamen rarely responded to greetings or if they did it was with a non-committal nod, no hint of a smile.

It did not surprise me.

I remembered them from Darfur 14 years before. There they were known as the Janjaweed and became notorious for atrocities inflicted on the civilian population.

In 2005 I saw them beat and terrorise civilians in a camp for the displaced and I interviewed the survivors of torture and rape.

Now they have brought their violence to the streets of the capital.

This is the sound of gunfire in Khartoum, Sudan...

Sudan military attacks protestors

Sudan has been driven backwards by the conspiracy of a military elite whose priority is the survival of their power and privilege.

The Transitional Military Council has scrapped the agreements reached with the opposition Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) under the guise of speeding up the transition to full democratic elections.

These are to be held within nine months.

The plan is more than likely a fiction, not designed to produce civilian rule or anything like it.

There is ample precedent in Africa and elsewhere these days for elections which go through the motions of democracy but deliver none of its substance.

Don't be surprised to see senior figures from the TMC "retiring" from the military and standing as civilian candidates.

What will not change is military control of Sudanese life.

In part the FFC and its civil society allies are victims of their own dizzying success in the early days of the revolution.

Within 24 hours they toppled President Omar al-Bashir and the military man who led the coup against him.

Thirty years of rule appeared to have been vanquished.
The sight of the sit-in drew activists from all spheres of Sudanese life. It became a citadel of freedom.

The atmosphere was intoxicating.

People debated and sang and produced art.



















GETTY IMAGES

They produced manifestos on women's rights, media freedom, justice and the economy, and much more besides.

Yet diversity was also a vulnerability.

Everybody agreed that civilian rule was the essential demand.

But there were inevitable differences over the specifics of achieving that aim: what should the timeframe be, what would be the balance between military and civilian representatives, which personalities representing which groupings would take positions in any transitional arrangements?

None of these debates were in themselves fatal to the cause.

But they highlighted the difficulties of being a "people's movement" compared to an established political party with the structures and internal discipline to make swift changes at the negotiating table.

Hard line take control

There was another problem.

As the shockwaves of Mr Bashir's overthrow dissipated the old politics of Sudan re-emerged.

Parties and personalities who had been suppressed under dictatorship were determined not to be left out if political power was being shared.

This allowed the military to characterise the protesters as simply one of the groups who were part of the negotiations, ignoring the fact that there would have been no negotiations without the demonstrations.

Delaying or dissembling in the name of inclusivity became a tactic.

Once the military had recovered from the confusion around Mr Bashir's overthrow it regrouped and the most hard line elements took control.

This explains the pre-eminence of the RSF commander, Mohammed "Hemedti" Hamadan whose personal ruthlessness in Darfur always made him the most likely leader of a counter-revolution.

Unlike many of the military elite "Hemedti" is an outsider.

From a rural background he has no family ties or sentimental affiliation with the young middle class protesting on the streets of the Khartoum.

Divided world

The military also enjoys another big advantage.

This is an age of international division.

The notion of an "international community" which might pressure the regime is a fantasy.

The world is now governed by a collection of interests - occasionally they are complimentary, more often they are in competition.

The UN Security Council is not a forum where any kind of concerted action on Sudan might be approved.

Russia and China would block any move to increase sanctions on Khartoum.

The condemnation from US National Security Advisor, John Bolton - he called the Khartoum violence "abhorrent" - will only mean something if the US demands that its regional allies - Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - exert pressure on the Sudanese military.

For now it is hard to imagine President Donald Trump picking up the phone to Cairo or Riyadh and insisting on a swift transition to civilian rule.

Mr Trump has other priorities like the Mexican border, Venezuela, Iran and the trade war with China.





















Sudanese forces tried to disperse the sit-in Monday 
ASHRAF SHAZLY

What about an African solution?

The African Union (AU) was an early supporter of civilian rule after the fall of Mr Bashir but the AU's actions around the election results in the Democratic Republic of Congo in January are cautionary: the AU first criticised what many observers saw as a fix but then rowed back.

In recent weeks the African body has spoken of the need for international actors not to meddle in Sudanese affairs.

Bear in mind too that the AU's current chairperson is Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi who is himself a symbol of military usurpation of power.

The Sudan crisis exposes the dominant reality of the international scene.

Force can have its way without consequence if the killers and torturers represent a valuable enough asset to other stronger powers - in strategic, ideological, intelligence or economic terms.

It is possible that President Trump will make a stand on Sudan and pressure his allies to act, that the AU will threaten to expel and isolate Sudan, that more moderate elements in the military will emerge and challenge "Hemedti" and his supporters. Possible. But certainly not probable.

I remember speaking with a leading activist at the demonstrations back in April.

He told me that "the sit-in is the only card we have. That is why we have to maintain it."



















Sudanese people had been protesting for many weeks by this point in May, well after Mr Bashir had been forced out of office 
GETTY IMAGES

But now that the sit-in is smashed where does the opposition go?

The peaceful revolutionaries are beaten and traumatised.

It is impossible to say now whether the Forces of Freedom and Change can come back as a street-driven force.

There have been calls for civil disobedience and strikes.

Any such will likely be met with ruthless violence.

What will not change, in fact what has been deepened, is the alienation of people from their rulers.



















Demonstrators were still protesting peacefully at the beginning of May at a sit-in outside the army's headquarters 
GETTY IMAGES

Repression may work as a strategy for now but not indefinitely.

Sudan is now dependant on powerful neighbours for its economic survival and beset by internal divisions.

Dependency on the Egyptians and Saudis will rankle with many Sudanese beyond the protesters, adding a more overtly nationalist dimension to the current crisis.

The generals have succeeded in smashing the protest but their troubles may only be starting.

Road to transition












Image copyright 
AFP
  • 19 December 2018 - Protests erupt after fuel and bread price rises announced
  • 22 February 2019 - President Bashir dissolves the government
  • 24 February - Protests continue as security forces respond by firing live bullets
  • 6 April - Activists begin sit-in at military headquarters, vowing not to move until Mr Bashir steps down
  • 11 April - Army generals announce that Mr Bashir has been toppled but sit-in continues as people demand civilian rule
  • 20 April - Talks between the military rulers and civilian representatives begin
  • 13 May - Shooting outside the military headquarters leaves six people dead
  • 14 May - Military and civilians announce a deal on a three-year transition period
  • 16 May - Talks postponed as military demands some barricades are removed
  • 3 June - Activists announce the suspension of talks with the military, accusing them of using force to disperse their sit-in
More on Sudan
View the original analysis by BBC Africa Editor Fergal Keane OBE Wed 5 June 2019 here:
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Tweets about infiltration by rogue groups - situation extremely volatile - protest leaders calling for international mediation

Snippets from BBC Africa Editor Fergal Keane’s Twitter page @fergalkeane47 Wed 5 Jun 2019 (Sudan Watch Ed: yellow highlighting is mine):

This could point mean there is divergence between the two. But, the fact that Hemdti is talking to his soldiers about rouge groups impersonating them is more worrying. Is he psyching them for more, or is he serious and there is another militia that he does not control.!

Very mixed messages from Sudan's military today. As General Burhan apologises + calls for talks, his deputy Mohammed "Hemeti" Hamadan is on Sudan TV telling his RSF militia that protesters had been infiltrated by rogue elements + drug dealers and firm action was warranted

#SudanUprising #Saudi statement of “deep concern” and condolences to families of  victims. Says KSA “affirms the importance of resuming the dialogue between the various parties in Sudan to fulfill the aspirations of the brotherly Sudanese people.” 1/3

This may explain regime offer of talks, indicate pressure at international and regional level is being applied on Khartoum. It might - a big might - stop a recurrence of large scale killing. But honestly with the current Sudanese regime there are no guarantees. 2/3

The situation is extremely volatile. Trust in military offer of talks will be minimal. Protest leaders have called for international mediation. But that is a huge step for the regime to accept. 3/3
6:01 am - 5 Jun 2019
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Sudan crisis: 40 bodies pulled from Nile, opposition says

Residents in Khartoum told the BBC they were living in fear as members of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) roamed the streets. The paramilitary unit - formerly known as the Janjaweed militia - gained notoriety in the Darfur conflict in western Sudan in 2003.

"Forty bodies of our noble martyrs were recovered from the river Nile yesterday," the Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors said in a Facebook post.

An official from the group told the BBC that they had witnessed and verified the bodies in hospitals and that the death toll now stood at 100.

A former security officer quoted by Channel 4's Sudanese journalist Yousra Elbagir said that some of those thrown into the Nile had been beaten or shot to death and others hacked to death with machetes.
"It was a massacre," the unnamed source said.

Read the full analysis by BBC Africa Editor Fergal Keane Wed 5 June 2019 here:
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Finally got in touch my intelligence source (a defected NISS officer) he says: 

"This is all a planned attack by the RSF, NISS, People's Police militia, People's Security Militia, Defence Miltia, Student Security Militia & AbdelHai Islamist Militia. They were a force of 10,000."
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Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Military takeover in Sudan: A timeline of key events

A timeline of key events in Sudan’s unfinished revolution

CAIRO (AP) Monday June, 3 2019 — Sudan’s security forces violently dispersed on Monday the camp at the center of the protest movement that in April forced the army to remove Sudan’s strongman, Omar al-Bashir, after 30 years of rule — and then stayed in the streets to keep up pressure on the generals who took his place.

For months, tens of thousands in the camp and other protest sites have been demanding a speedy transition to civilian rule. The break-up of the sit-in threatens to escalate the struggle between the protesters and the army to a new, more volatile level.

Many protest leaders see the confrontation with the army as part of the struggle to purge the state’s institutions of al-Bashir’s army and Islamist supporters. The autocrat’s time in power will likely be remembered as among the most oppressive in Sudan’s modern history.

Here is a timeline of key events in the rise and fall of al-Bashir, and Sudan’s unfinished revolution:

1980s — A career army officer, al-Bashir assumes a leading role in the war against rebels in the south.
1985 — Sudanese army overthrows former President Jaafar al-Nimeiri in a bloodless coup. The army quickly hands power to an elected government, which proves dysfunctional and only rules for a few years.
1989 — Leading an alliance of the army and Islamist hard-liners, al-Bashir stages a coup against Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi, dissolving the government and all political parties. He appoints himself chair of the Revolutionary Command Council for National Salvation, which rules the country, and is named defense minister.
1990 — Coup attempt fails to unseat al-Bashir.
1991 — Al-Bashir and his Islamist allies impose Islamic or Sharia law, fueling the division between the country’s Muslim, Arabized north and the mainly animist and Christian south.
August 1993 — U.S. State Department lists Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism.
October 1993 — Al-Bashir is appointed president.
1996 — Al-Bashir is re-elected president.
1997 — U.S. imposes sanctions against Sudan’s government, accusing it of supporting terrorism.
June 1998 — Sudanese legislators draft a new constitution that lifts the ban on political parties.
December — Al-Bashir dissolves the parliament after an Islamist political ally proposes laws limiting the president’s powers.
2000 — Al-Bashir wins another presidential election with over 85% of the vote.
2003 — Rebel groups in Darfur attack the government in an uprising against alleged abuses and mistreatment by authorities. Al-Bashir seeks help from the Janjaweed militias, whose brutal tactics terrorize people in the region and displace more than 2 million people. A small peacekeeping force from the African Union arrives.
2005 — Under international pressure, a peace deal is reached between al-Bashir and the southern Sudanese rebel group, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army. The agreement gives southern Sudanese the right to determine whether the south would remain part of Sudan.
July 2008 — International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor calls for an arrest warrant against al-Bashir, citing charges of crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide in Darfur. The Sudanese government, which is not a party to the treaty creating the ICC, denies the accusations and proclaims al-Bashir’s innocence.
March 2009 — The ICC issues an arrest warrant for al-Bashir — the first time that the ICC seeks the arrest of a sitting head of state — charging him with war crimes and crimes against humanity but not genocide. Later, a second arrest warrant is issued against al-Bashir, this time with a genocide charge.
April 2010 — Al-Bashir is re-elected with about 68% of vote in the country’s first multiparty elections in more than 20 years. Two main opposition rivals withdraw over alleged fraudulent practices.
July 2011 — South Sudan gains independence after a referendum in January. South Sudan’s independence causes economic difficulties in Sudan as the new country gains control over the southern oil fields, which had accounted for three-quarters of the country’s oil production.
April 2015 — Al-Bashir wins another five-year term in a vote marred by low turnout.
November-December 2016 — Hundreds of protesters take to streets against a government decision to slash fuel subsidies, as required by the International Monetary Fund.
October 2017 — U.S. announces partial lifting of long-standing sanctions against Sudan, citing progress by Khartoum in fighting terrorism and its commitment not to pursue arms deals with North Korea.
January 2018 — Protests break out across Sudan against price hikes caused by government austerity measures.
August 2018 — Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party says it would back al-Bashir as its candidate in the 2020 presidential election.
Dec. 16, 2018 — Al-Bashir becomes the first Arab League leader to visit Syria since civil war erupted there nearly eight years ago. He is greeted at the Damascus airport by Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Dec. 19, 2018 — Anti-government demonstrations erupt across Sudan, initially over steep price rises and shortages, but soon shift to calls for al-Bashir to step down. Security forces respond with a fierce crackdown that kills dozens.
Feb. 19, 2019 — Al-Bashir declares a state of emergency, bans all unauthorized gatherings and gives security forces sweeping powers to quash the protests.
April 6 — A large sit-in protest begins outside the military’s headquarters in Khartoum. Over the next five days, security forces kill 22 people in attempts to clear the sit-in. The protests gain momentum after the resignation earlier in the week by Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, in power for 20 years, in response to similar demonstrations.
April 11 — Sudanese army arrests al-Bashir and says it takes over for the next 2 years, suspending the country’s constitution and closing its borders and airspace. A three-month state of emergency is also imposed.
April 12 — Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan replaces the coup leader who is linked to the bloodshed in Darfur, Awad Mohammed Ibn Ouf, after street rallies against him.
April 17 — Sudanese officials say al-Bashir has been transferred to a prison in Khartoum.
April 21 — Protest organizers suspend talks with the ruling military council, saying it has failed to meet their demands for an immediate transfer to a civilian government.
April 25 — Under pressure from mounting protests, three members of the ruling military council resign.
April 27 — Protest leaders resume talks with the ruling military council.
May 13 — Sudanese prosecutors say they have charged al-Bashir with involvement in killing and incitement to kill protesters during the uprising.
May 14 — Protesters says security agents loyal to ousted leader al-Bashir attacked their sit-ins overnight, setting off clashes that killed five people, including an army officer.
May 15 — Army and opposition leaders announce significant progress in negotiations; a three-year transition period, a Cabinet and the makeup of a 300-member, all-civilian transitional legislative body.
May 25 — Thousands of Islamists, long allied with al-Bashir’s regime, rally to support military-backed Islamic rule in Khartoum.
May 28 — Protest leaders launch a two-day general strike to press the army to hand over power to a civilian-led authority.
June 3 — Protest leaders say security forces attack their Khartoum sit-in at the center of the movement, opening fire, torching tents and killing over 30 people.

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Sudan profile - Timeline 1881 to 2019

To see chronology of key events 1881 to 2019 click here: 
Source: BBC UK News online
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USAID 2001 Sudan Oil and Gas Concessions Map




Image: map from Sudan Watch archive July 28, 2009 "S. Kordofan: Heglig, the biggest oil field in Sudan, could be a source of potential conflict between SPLM and NCP". To read full report click here: http://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2009/07/s-kordofan-heglig-biggest-oil-field-in.html

To view larger version of above map from Wikipedia, click here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USAID_2001_SudanOil%26GasConcessionsMap_UTexLib.jpg  
Click once or twice on image at Wikipedia to view full screen size.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Sudan's desertification. The future of wildlife and population growth on Earth will get worse

Sudan’s desertification
The great divide across Sudan is visible even from space, as this Nasa satellite image shows. The northern states are a blanket of desert, broken only by the fertile Nile corridor. Southern Sudan is covered by green swathes of grassland, swamps and tropical forest. 
Photo by Nasa/Caption by BBC/
Sudan Watch 8 Feb 2011 (eight years ago!) Sudan a country divided
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The future of wildlife on earth is going to get worse
SIR DAVID Attenborough, a world famous English broadcaster and natural historian and the writer and narrator of the most amazing nature documentaries ever made, is pessimistic about the future of wildlife on Earth. In an interview by Vox.com 12 April 2019 93-year-old Sir David says: 

“Things are going to get worse. Unless we act within the next 10 years, we are in real trouble. I find it hard to exaggerate the peril. This is the new extinction and we are half way through it. We are in terrible, terrible trouble and the longer we wait to do something about it the worse it is going to get.”

Here is a link to the Vox interview, in a tweet by climate change expert Paul E Dawson from Scotland, UK:
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Further reading

David Attenborough - Humans are plague on Earth
Humans are a plague on the Earth that need to be controlled by limiting population growth

Louise Grey, in her article published by The Telegraph UK 22 Jan 2013 (six years ago!), writes:

"The television presenter [Sir David Attenborough] said that humans are threatening their own existence and that of other species by using up the world’s resources.

He said the only way to save the planet from famine and species extinction is to limit human population growth.

“We are a plague on the Earth. It’s coming home to roost over the next 50 years or so. It’s not just climate change; it’s sheer space, places to grow food for this enormous horde.

Either we limit our population growth or the natural world will do it for us, and the natural world is doing it for us right now,” he told the Radio Times.

Sir David, who is a patron on the Population Matters, has spoken out before about the “frightening explosion in human numbers” and the need for investment in sex education and other voluntary means of limiting population in developing countries.

“We keep putting on programmes about famine in Ethiopia; that’s what’s happening. Too many people there. They can’t support themselves — and it’s not an inhuman thing to say. It’s the case. Until humanity manages to sort itself out and get a coordinated view about the planet it’s going to get worse and worse".” 

Source: The Telegraph 22 Jan 2013 (six years ago!)
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Water to spark future wars: UK
Drilling for Sudan’s drinking water is more important than drilling for oil
Darfur hand-pumps are on the frontline of peace building
Source: Sudan Watch 28 Feb 2006 (thirteen years ago!)
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Sunday, April 21, 2019

History of coups in Khartoum Sudan (Alex de Waal)

HERE below is a funny and fascinating potted history of 14 coups in Sudan, including the latest, written by Africa specialist Dr. Alex de Waal. It's a must-read. The essay is full of interesting details bringing its readers up to date with what is happening in Sudan right now: Sudan “is poised between an inspirational transformation and dangerous disorder. Sudan’s democratic moment is still desperately fragile”. 

After reading the essay, and going by the last 16 years here at Sudan Watch and miles of reports, I’ll be surprised if Sudan suddenly becomes a stable democracy, I fear there are too many violent opportunistic factions involved, all vying for power (click here to read UN Security Council briefing on Sudan 07 Feb 2019). 

Also, South Sudan is still in turmoil, parts of its border still being negotiated, poor people in South Sudan still suffering much grief and hardship, not a lot has changed for the better since the country gained independence from Sudan in 2011 (click here to read UN Security Council briefing on South Sudan 14 Mar 2019).

While reading today's news about Sudanese protestors staging a sit-in in Khartoum to demand civilian rule, I thought of the violence gripping Libya ever since its strongman leader Muammer Gaddafi (07 Jun 1942 - 20 Oct 2011) was horrifically murdered in Libya by his people (click here to read UN Security Council briefing on Libya 05 Apr 2019).

And the violence continuing in Iraq ever since its strongman leader Saddam Hussein (28 Apr 1937 - 30 Dec 2006) was returned to Iraq by the US and hanged by his people (click here to read UN Security Council briefing on Iraq 03 Dec 2019). 

Maybe that is why Sudan's strongman leader Omar al-Bashir is now, reportedly, being held in a high security prison in Sudan's capital of Khartoum, to save him from facing the same fate as Messrs Gaddafi and Hussein.

On a lighter note, while reading the essay, I laughed at the coupists commandeering a train to storm Khartoum only to find themselves shunted into a siding by an unwitting signalman. Also, the story of a failed coup launched mid-afternoon while government officials were asleep during a customary nap. And a failed coupist who left Sudan for Ireland and shortly after having a great idea to write a cartoon history of coups in Sudan was hit and killed by a car in London’s Euston Road while rushing to join an opposition meeting! Note that the 1989 Islamist coup was notable in part because Omar al-Bashir and his fellow rebels were stone cold sober.

Sorry for laughing at such deadly matters. Over the years I've noticed that the Sudanese know how to party and have a good time. They’ll start a party from nothing, over anything. I find them endearing, they make me smile. Ugandans, Kenyans, Egyptians and Indians too. Their humour is so British, like it’s woven into their culture. Here’s the story of 14 coups in Sudan by Alex de Waal, and my postscript about Hergé’s famously funny Tintin. Enjoy! (Thanks Alex!)

Sudan after Bashir
From London Review of Books blog
By Alex de Waal
Thursday 18 April 2019

On the morning of Thursday 11 April, the Sudanese army announced that they would shortly be making an announcement. Radio and TV were already broadcasting ominous martial music. Tens of thousands of protesters, massed outside the Ministry of Defence, waited patiently. For months they had been calling for President Omar al Bashir to step down. Six hours later, the somewhat strained figure of General Awad Ibn Auf, the defence minister and vice president – and in that capacity heir apparent to Bashir – appeared on TV to say that the army had taken over and a further announcement would come before long. He looked unwell and sounded indecisive.

On Friday 12 April, Ibn Auf quit and another senior general, Abdel Fattah Burhan, took the presidential oath of office. No one had a clue about his character or politics; commentators speculated that his relative obscurity must mean he was an apolitical figure ready to preside over a compromise. An hour later he made an overture to the protesters, a vast crowd whose discipline and fortitude compares impressively with the disarray of the security chiefs: it was obvious that the generals’ pact was unravelling once Salah Abdallah Gosh, the head of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), announced his resignation too.

Sudan saw 14 coups between independence in 1956 and the Islamist putsch in 1989 that brought Brigadier Omar al-Bashir to power. Khalid el Kid, who tried to seize power as a young colonel in the 1970s and later became a lecturer in English literature in Ireland, had the idea in 1990 of writing a cartoon history of them. He was killed shortly afterwards, hit by a car on the Euston Road while dashing to join an opposition meeting. One of the books in his library was a 1975 graphic novel by Hergé, the creator of Tintin, portraying Jaafar Nimeiri’s putsch of 1969, and his dramatic escape from an attempted counter coup two years later.

Most of the coups took place in the middle of the night – the officers involved having boosted their courage with a drinking session – and the population woke either to martial music and the voice of a new military man on the radio, or the announcement that a treacherous subversion had been repressed. In one of the failed attempts, military units commandeered a train to storm Khartoum, but a railway signalman who wasn’t in on the deal switched the points and sent the insurgents into a siding. In 1971, communists caught the government off guard by launching their coup in the middle of the afternoon, during the siesta hour when most people were asleep. (It was reversed after three days, with Nimeiri’s escape from detention, much relished by Hergé.) The 1989 Islamist coup was notable in part because Bashir and his fellow officers were stone cold sober.

Ba‘athist officers tried to overthrow Bashir during Ramadan the following year. The Islamist security services summarily executed 28 of them. For almost thirty years there were no further coup attempts. By chance or design, Bashir created an apparently coup-proof system of rule. As well as a proficient spy network, he used two tools, one obvious to all, the other more subtle.

The overt coup-proofing method was to divide and rule the security forces. The NISS, with tanks and helicopters at its disposal, could put up a formidable resistance to any army units. Soon after taking power, Bashir also created the Popular Defence Forces, an umbrella term for various paramilitary outfits, including some which were loyal to the Islamist party. There are also oilfield security units, Border Intelligence (former Darfurian Janjaweed), Central Reserve Police and, the biggest of the lot, the Rapid Support Force, which also grew out of Darfurian Arab militia. Seven thousand RSF troops are deployed in Yemen on Saudi Arabia’s payroll, and the RSF commander, Mohamed Hamdan Hemeti, became one of the main powerbrokers at military HQ in Khartoum.

Without a unified military capable of taking control of the capital, it looked as if Bashir would be immune to the fate of his predecessor Nimeiri, who lost power in April 1985 when the army command decided to ‘stand with the people’ during a civilian uprising – the path followed by the Egyptian army when it deposed Hosni Mubarak during the Arab Spring. The leaders of the different forces only had to get together with the army chiefs, however, and Bashir would be out. This is what happened on the morning of 11 April.

Bashir’s other, less conspicuous kind of armour was loyalty and reciprocal trust. After the killing of the 28 ‘Ramadan martyrs’, the president made sure that no officer was executed or extradited. In 1995, when a group of officers were caught red-handed trying to assassinate Mubarak at a summit in Ethiopia, Bashir demoted them or cycled them out of power but made sure they were not handed over to the Egyptians or Ethiopians.

He was a generous, sociable patron. Twice a week he held open house for army officers at his residence in the vast military HQ compound in Khartoum. Any soldier with the rank of captain or above could drop by. Bashir was friendly, solicitous and helpful. He was also accommodating to the provincial aristocracy of tribal chiefs, who served as militia commanders, and to paramilitary leaders. The result was a prodigious level of personal intelligence about what was going on. While Gosh and the NISS spied on people – NISS and Gosh’s own private companies have a stake in Sudan’s mobile phone networks – and broke up opposition cells using detention, torture and agents provocateurs, Bashir was like an uncle to every man in the sprawling security apparatus. Everyone trusted him to stick to the unwritten rules.

Bashir customised the system of government and security as a show which only he could run, as his successors are quickly discovering. When international human rights activists condemn Bashir for his brutality and call for him to face trial at the International Criminal Court, they misunderstand the social norms that have kept his regime together. When the ICC indicted his subordinates, Bashir stood by them, and so far they have insisted that they will not extradite him to The Hague. On Wednesday, he was transferred from house arrest to Kober prison, where generations of political prisoners have been jailed, including the elected parliamentarians he overthrew thirty years ago. It’s also where the prison service protects its professional ethos: Bashir won’t be mistreated there. Kober is a symbolic humiliation but not an ejection from the elite.

The civility of the Sudanese elite crosses political divides, to the astonishment – and perplexity – of foreign mediators dispatched by the UN or Western governments to try to resolve Sudan’s wars. When they meet in a Kenyan hotel for talks, the leaders of warring groups, whose fighters are killing one another in rural Sudan, will embrace, exchange greetings and inquire after one another’s families. Political rivals in Khartoum celebrate at each others’ family weddings. Political assassinations or executions have always been rare and in the last 25 years they were almost unheard of. These norms helped Bashir to hold onto the presidency, but they also ultimately broke him.

During his last years in office, he used his formidable political talents simply to stay in power, and did nothing for the country. Anti-government protests erupted last December, first against the high prices of bread and fuel, and then against Bashir’s endless rule and the corruption that accompanied it. Despite weekly demonstrations in Khartoum and other cities, Bashir imagined he could outlast the protesters. He thought they lacked leadership and would be easily divided, bought off or demoralised. He was wrong. On 6 April – the anniversary of the popular uprising that brought down Nimeiri in 1985 – the biggest ever crowds surrounded the Ministry of Defence and military HQ, and refused to disperse.

By then about fifty people had died in the protests. Given the size of the demonstrations, it is a relatively low figure – more than 200 were killed in two weeks of protests in 2013. Army officers would not order their units to fire on the crowds. Among the demonstrators were the sons and daughters of their friends, colleagues and family members; sometimes their own children. One brigadier said his daughter came home from the protests asking him not to shoot her friends. The violence since last December – live ammunition, high concentrations of tear gas, beatings and torture – was perpetrated by the NISS and militia groups. When Bashir’s security chiefs met in their besieged HQ on 6 and 7 April and gave orders to disperse the crowds, the paramilitaries were ready to do it, but the regular army wasn’t. On two successive nights, army units opened fire on the paramilitaries in defence of the protesters.

Bashir knew all the political intrigue among the middle and senior ranks of the military, but failed to anticipate the doggedness of the protesters and had no idea how to respond to their demands. There had been opportunities to democratise the country – the Sudanese were willing to put up with him until the elections scheduled for April 2020, provided he opened up the political scene in a credible way. He began a ‘national dialogue’, which looked promising until he insisted on chairing it; he announced a new constitutional convention, but too late for the opposition parties to take it seriously. He was too cautious to venture any meaningful concessions.

The Alliance for Freedom and Change consists of 22 opposition organisations, including the Sudan Professionals Association, coalitions of political parties, Girifna (‘we have had enough,’ a movement of young people), the Forum of Sudanese Tweeters and the families of the Ramadan martyrs. They and the demonstrators outside the walls of the military HQ have been more disciplined and cohesive than the generals within. They issued a declaration on 1 January, the anniversary of Sudan’s independence, calling for Bashir to be replaced by a transitional civilian council, to govern for four years and prepare the way for a genuine democracy.

When General Burhan offered to talk on 13 April, some opposition leaders said the alliance should simply present its demands and refuse to negotiate; others said it would be better to enter into a dual authority arrangement with the army. The Sudan Revolutionary Forces – a coalition of armed insurgents in Darfur and the ‘two areas’ of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, who have been fighting for years – said it was too early to enter talks. This made the civic opposition leaders’ hearts sink: the southern rebel leader John Garang refused to join the civilian government in 1985, in nearly identical circumstances, arguing that he could get more by continuing to fight (and went on to do so for another twenty years).

If the civic opposition can seize the day, they could well set the agenda in their talks with a disoriented soldiery. If they cannot, the situation could quickly deteriorate. Gosh’s resignation is a warning. He is a merciless operator and no one expects him to go quietly into retirement. The security bosses all have foreign ties: the Islamists (currently sidelined by the coup) have backers in Qatar and Turkey; Ibn Auf may be gone but others in the high command are close to Egypt; Burhan and Hemeti have led troop deployments in Yemen on the Saudi payroll; Gosh is close to the United Arab Emirates. The security hydra – multitudinous, avaricious, with each faction backed by a rivalrous foreign patron – poses an ominous threat.

Eleven years ago, Hemeti and his Darfur Arab militia mutinied to demand a better deal from the government that had armed them and dispatched them to fight. The Channel 4 journalist Nima Elbagir filmed Hemeti as he negotiated his return to Bashir’s fold. In a dusty clearing in the bush, Hemeti held a meeting to sound out the views of his men and secure their backing, and then demanded a financial package from Khartoum. He switched back to fighting for the government when he got what he wanted. It’s a rare and compelling insight into a how a true specialist in violence operates in Sudan’s political marketplace.

Sudan, in other words, is poised between an inspirational transformation and dangerous disorder. It is still a beneficiary of the social codes that limit violence within the elite and in the cities. Sudan’s democratic moment is still desperately fragile.

Source: London Review Books blog 
Profile: Dr. Alex de Waal, Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation
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Postscript from Sudan Watch editor
In the essay above, the author, Alex de Waal, mentions the name Tintin. I had forgotten all about Tintin. My late father, who had a great sense of humour, often used the word “Tintin” to describe something or someone or other. Now, thanks to the Internet and Wikipedia, I know what he meant. Here are some snippets.

The Adventures of Tintin is a series of 24 comic albums created by Belgian cartoonist Georges Remi, who wrote under the pen name Hergé. The series was one of the most popular European comics of the 20th century. By 2007, a century after Hergé's birth in 1907, Tintin had been published in more than 70 languages with sales of more than 200 million copies, and had been adapted for radio, television, theatre, and film.

The series is set during a largely realistic 20th century. Its hero is Tintin, a courageous young Belgian reporter and adventurer. He is aided by his faithful dog Snowy. Other protagonists include the brash and cynical Captain Haddock and the intelligent but hearing-impaired Professor Calculus, as well as the incompetent detectives Thomson and Thomson and the opera diva Bianca Catafiore.

The series has been admired for its clean, expressive drawings in Hergé's signature "clear line" style. Its well-researched plots straddle a variety of genres: swashbuckling adventures with elements of fantasy, action, mysteries, political thrillers, and science fiction. The stories feature slapstick humour, offset by dashes of sophisticated satire and political or cultural commentary.

Tintin
Tintin is neither a surname nor a first name, it is much more than that Tintin is a totally unique world, a myth or a saga. Tintin is created from Hergé’s subconscious desire to be perfect, to be a hero. The hero who everyone between 7 and 77 years old wants to be, or become while reading the Adventures of Tintin.

Hergé said
"The idea for the character of Tintin and the sort of adventures that would befall him came to me, I believe, in five minutes, the moment I first made a sketch of the figure of this hero: that is to say, he had not haunted my youth nor even my dreams. Although it's possible that as a child I imagined myself in the role of a sort of Tintin."
—Hergé, 15 November 1966.
“Tintin is me wanting to be heroic and perfect …”  “Tintin is me… my eyes, my feelings, my lungs, my guts!… I believe I am the only person able to animate him, the only person to give him a soul.

Further Reading
Oct 17, 2008 - Sudan Watch 
TRANSCRIPT: UK Channel 4 News Lindsey Hilsum’s interview on 09 Oct 2008 with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir at the Presidential Palace in Khartoum, Sudan. Throughout the interview Mr Bashir spoke English.

(Note: Front page and posts at this site Sudan Watch - www.sudanwatch.blogspot.com - take several minutes to load. After a 5-year hiatus the blog is undergoing maintenance to enable new and old posts to appear quickly)  
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Tweet of the Week

Above image: Screenshot of a tweet by long-time Africa correspondent Rob Crilly @robcrilly, author of SAVING DARFUR - Everyone's Favourite African War (see image here below - and more at Rob's website robcrilly.com)
Tweet caption: "The prison where it all began... Hassan al-Turabi famously plotted the 1989 coup while being "held" here #Sudan
Image caption: BBC NEWS 
Sudan ex-leader Bashir moved to prison
Eyewitnesses say former President Omar al-Bashir has been taken to Kobar maximum security prison.
6:25 am - 17 Apr 2019
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Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Sudan Coup Crisis: UN chief appoints Nicholas Haysom to help African Union mediation in Sudan

  • UN Chief Appoints Adviser to Help AU Mediation in Sudan
  • Report from Voice of America.com
  • By Margaret Besheer
  • Published Tuesday April 16, 2019 5:45 PM 
  • The U.N. secretary-general has appointed special adviser Nicholas Haysom to support the African Union's mediation efforts in Sudan, where the military ousted longtime President Omar al-Bashir last week.
  • "He is being put at disposal of the African Union, which we understand will be engaged in some mediation capacity between the transitional council in Khartoum and various parts of Sudanese society," U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters Tuesday. "Mr. Haysom will be there to support them in whatever way he can."
  • He said that U.N. chief António Guterres had spoken Monday with Moussa Faki Mahamat, the chair of the African Union Commission, and told him that Haysom would be available.
  • "The secretary-general is very attached to his partnership with the African Union and he will do whatever he can to support their efforts," Dujarric said.
  • Haysom was most recently the U.N.'s top man in Somalia, but was expelled after four months by the Somali federal government, after he tried to intervene on behalf of a former al-Shabab leader who sought to take part in elections but was banned by Somalia's electoral commission.
  • Haysom, a South African lawyer, was previously the U.N. special envoy for Sudan and South Sudan and was head of the U.N. mission in Afghanistan.
  • The African Union Peace and Security Council issued a strong statement Monday condemning the military takeover in Sudan as an unconstitutional change of government, and demanding the military hand over power to a transitional civilian-led political authority within 15 days.
  • Failure to do so, the AU warned, would result in Sudan's suspension from participation in all African Union activities until constitutional order is restored.
  • Sudan's General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, head of the Rapid Support Forces, is sworn-in as the appointed deputy of Sudan's Transitional Military Council, standing before the head of transitional council, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan
  • Meanwhile, in Khartoum Tuesday, the country's new military ruler, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, fired the country's top prosecutor in an apparent concession to demonstrators' demands.
  • Protest leaders have called for the new ruling military council to be dissolved and replaced by a civilian one, in the wake of the military coup that ousted President al-Bashir last week.
  • Mohamed Naji, a senior leader of the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) — the main group behind months of protests against al-Bashir — said the group wants to see a civic council formed that includes representatives from the army.
  • On Sunday, Sudan's military council said it would name a civilian prime minister and cabinet minister to help run the country but would not name a civilian to the office of the president. A military spokesman also said the council would not stop the demonstrations that are continuing.
  • The SPA has called for more demonstrations until its demands are met.
  • The protests began Dec. 19, with demonstrators accusing al-Bashir's government of economic mismanagement that sparked skyrocketing food prices, and fuel and foreign currency shortages.
  • Al-Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in connection with atrocities in the western region of Darfur. However, the military leaders have said he will not be turned over to the ICC, but will instead be tried in Sudan.
  • Source:  https://www.voanews.com/a/un-chief-appoints-adviser-to-help-au-mediation-in-sudan/4878727.html
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  • Updates
  • Uganda willing to offer Al-Bashir asylum
  • Here below is a link to a video report plus a copy of an accompanying written report by SABC Digital News published at Google’s YouTube on Tuesday, 16 April 2019:
  • “The government of Uganda says it is willing to consider granting asylum to deposed Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir. It says, this in appreciation for his role in the South-Sudan peace deal. Uganda's State Minister for foreign affairs Henry Okello Oryem, said on Tuesday in Kampala, that if al-Bashir applied for asylum in Uganda his government could consider the matter. We are now joined LIVE for more on this story by Correspondent Michale Baleke from Kampala, Uganda.”
    Click here to view the video:  https://youtu.be/CLHWaD87WtU
    South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) is funded in whole or in part by the South African government. Wikipedia
  • Also, posted on this blog’s sister sites UGANDA WATCH and CONGO WATCH.
  • - - -

    Ex-President Omar al-Bashir moved to prison
    Here is a copy of a report by BBC News online published Wednesday April 17, 2019 11:50 GMT UK:
  • Sudan's former President Omar al-Bashir has been moved to Kobar maximum security prison, days after he was deposed in a military coup. Reports say the ex-leader has until now been detained at the presidential residence under heavy guard.
    He is reportedly being held in solitary confinement and is surrounded by tight security.
    Months of protests in Sudan led to the ousting and arrest of the long-time ruler on Thursday.
    Uganda's Minister for Foreign Affairs Henry Oryem Okello told Reuters news agency the country would consider offering the deposed leader asylum if he applied, despite an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
    As an ICC member, Uganda would have to hand over Mr Bashir if he arrived in the country. The ICC has not yet commented.”
    Click here to read the full story and live updates at BBC News online:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-47961424
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Sudan Army coup attempt in Khartoum could be under way

Al Jazeera English published a video news report at Google's YouTube Thur, 11 Apr 2019. Click on link here below to view the video. Here is a copy of a news report by Al Jazeera posted with the video:
Sudan Army says it will make important 'announcement'
The Sudanese Army has deployed troops around the defence ministry, on key roads and bridges in the capital Khartoum.

 There are reports the head of the ruling party and the former vice president have been detained.

 Thousands have flocked to the streets of the capital - and joined a sit-in outside the military headquarters. 

 That protest has been taking place since Saturday.

 Earlier, state television said the armed forces would make an important announcement, amid speculation a coup attempt could be under way against President Omar al-Bashir. It follows months of protests against his 30-year rule.

 Al Jazeera's Hiba Morgan reports.
Al Jazeera is funded in whole or in part by the Qatari government.

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