Sudan: UNSC Report - July 2025 Monthly Forecast

UN Security Council Report
July 2025 Monthly Forecast 
Dated 30 June 2025 - full copy:

Sudan

Expected Council Action

In July, the Security Council is expected to receive the semi-annual briefing on the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) activities related to the situation in Darfur. ICC Deputy Prosecutor Nazhat Shameem Khan is expected to brief.

Background and Key Recent Developments

More than 17 years after the Council’s ICC referral on the situation in Darfur, through resolution 1593 of 31 March 2005, the first trial opened on 5 April 2022 with the case of  Prosecutor v. Ali Muhammad Ali Abd-Al-Rahman (“Ali Kushayb”). Abd-Al-Rahman, reportedly a former leader of the Janjaweed militia, is accused of 31 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed between August 2003 and approximately April 2004 in Darfur. The ICC concluded the trial in December 2024, and a decision is expected later this year. (For more information, see our 27 January What’s in Blue story.)

Four arrest warrants issued by the ICC remain outstanding—against former Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir; former Sudanese Minister of State for the Interior Ahmad Muhammad Harun; former Sudanese Minister of National Defence Abdel Raheem Muhammad Hussein; and former Commander-in-Chief of the Justice and Equality Movement Abdallah Banda Abakaer Nourain. Pursuant to resolution 1593 and the ICCs’ subsequent orders, Sudan remains under an obligation to surrender the four remaining suspects to the Court. According to the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP), following the outbreak of fighting in April 2023, Bashir, Hussein, and Harun—who had all been in custody in Kober prison in Khartoum—were released. Subsequently, media reports accused Harun of mobilising supporters of the former Bashir regime to fight alongside the army in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan.

According to the ICC Prosecutor’s most recent report, submitted to the Security Council on 16 January pursuant to resolution 1593, the OTP has gathered sufficient evidence to establish reasonable grounds to believe that a wide range of crimes under the Rome Statute have been—and continue to be—committed in Darfur, in the context of the ongoing conflict in Sudan that began in April 2023. These include killings, pillaging, attacks against internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, indiscriminate targeting of civilian populations, gender-based crimes, and crimes against and affecting children. (Under the Rome Statute, the ICC has jurisdiction over four crimes: genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression.) Furthermore, the OTP has continued to preserve evidence and information regarding alleged crimes committed by the Sudanese warring parties in North Darfur.

In his 27 January briefing to the Security Council, ICC Prosecutor Karim Ahmad Khan highlighted that the pattern of crimes, the perpetrators, and the targeted groups in the context of the ongoing conflict in Sudan closely resemble those from the 2003 conflict, which prompted the Council’s initial referral of the situation to the ICC. Khan emphasised the need to close the impunity gap and called for greater accountability. He expressed concern over widespread allegations regarding the targeting of women and girls, including reports of gender-based crimes. Khan confirmed that the OTP is taking steps to submit applications for arrest warrants in connection with crimes allegedly committed in West Darfur, while stressing that such applications will only be filed once the OTP is satisfied that there is a realistic prospect of conviction. He also underscored the importance of transferring Ahmad Harun to the ICC, noting its potential impact given the clear connection between Harun’s case and the recently concluded trial of Ali Kushayb.

In her remarks during the 53rd session of the Human Rights Council, Under-Secretary-General and Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide ad interim Virginia Gamba said that the Sudanese warring parties in the current conflict have committed serious human rights violations and that the risk of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity in Sudan remains very high. She noted that continued and targeted attacks against certain ethnic groups, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, remain of particular concern. Gamba highlighted that the RSF and allied Arab militias continue to conduct ethnically motivated attacks against the Zaghawa, Masalit, and Fur groups.

In a 16 May statement, ICC Prosecutor Karim Ahmad Khan announced that he would temporarily step aside while the UN Office of Internal Oversight Services conducts an investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has denied. In his absence, the OTP confirmed that Deputy Prosecutors Nazhat Shameem Khan and Mame Mandiaye Niang have assumed leadership responsibilities.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 2 June, a humanitarian aid convoy comprising 15 trucks from the WFP and UNICEF came under attack in Al Koma, which is located approximately 80 kilometres from El Fasher. The attack resulted in the deaths of five personnel, injured several others, and destroyed multiple trucks and critical humanitarian supplies. A day earlier (1 June), a separate attack, reportedly attributed to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), struck a busy market in Al Koma, killing 15 civilians and injuring dozens more. In a 4 June press release, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) called for prompt and impartial investigations into both incidents, along with meaningful steps to ensure accountability. It also urged all parties to the conflict to take concrete measures to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, and to facilitate safe and unimpeded humanitarian access in accordance with their obligations under international humanitarian law.

In a 17 June press release, the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) for Sudan warned that the civil war is intensifying, with devastating consequences for civilians caught in the conflict. The FFM reported the increased use of heavy weaponry in populated areas, with hospitals and medical facilities coming under siege, and a sharp rise in sexual and gender-based violence. It described the situation as “a grave human rights and protection emergency.” In El Fasher, civilians have been assaulted, detained, and killed, while villages have been attacked, burned, and looted by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). 

During one RSF assault from 10 to 13 April, more than 100 civilians were reportedly killed. 

The FFM called on the international community to impose an arms embargo and to take concrete steps to ensure accountability for those responsible for serious human rights violations.

Key Issues and Options

An underlying issue for the Security Council remains how to effectively promote justice and accountability for both past atrocities committed in Darfur and the ongoing violations of international humanitarian and human rights law being perpetrated by Sudan’s warring parties across the country. 

Broadly, the continued violence, insecurity, and targeted attacks against civilians remain a major concern for Council members in the context of the current conflict. The failure to ensure accountability for crimes committed over the past two decades has contributed to the recurrence of violence and impunity in the current conflict.

A key challenge for the Council is how to strengthen cooperation between the ICC and relevant Sudanese authorities, as well as third states and international and regional organisations. This includes facilitating the execution of outstanding arrest warrants, supporting the ICC’s ongoing investigations, and enabling the safe collection and transmission of evidence. A pressing concern in this regard is the documentation, preservation, and analysis of evidence in a highly insecure and fragmented environment. 

The volatile political and security situation in Sudan and in some neighbouring countries has created numerous obstacles for the ICC, including the disruption of planned deployments, limited access to sources of information, and difficulties in maintaining contact with witnesses. Khan’s 16 January report also points to significant resource constraints faced by the OTP, which continue to adversely affect its ability to pursue investigations and carry out its mandate in relation to the situation in Darfur.

Amid growing political sensitivities and divisions among states regarding the ICC’s work, an issue for the Council is how to ensure the Court receives the necessary political backing and resources to advance its mandate, uphold accountability, and help break the cycle of impunity. In addition to the regular briefing in July, Council members supportive of the ICC’s work in Sudan could consider holding a joint press stakeout in connection with the meeting to publicly reaffirm their commitment to justice and accountability.

Council members could also consider inviting UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk to brief on the broader human rights situation in Sudan. Additionally, members may wish to invite the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Pramila Patten, who visited Sudan from 13 to 17 April, to share insights into the scale and nature of conflict-related sexual violence and the protection needs of affected populations. (For more information, see the Sudan brief in our June 2025 Monthly Forecast.)

Council Dynamics

The Council is divided on the work of the ICC. Denmark, France, Greece, Guyana, Panama, the Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, and the UK are states parties to the Rome Statute of the ICC. These members have expressed strong support for the ICC’s efforts, including the conclusion of Ali Kushayb’s trial, and have commended the OTP for its continued pursuit of accountability for crimes committed in Darfur. Several have also endorsed the Prosecutor’s announcement of imminent applications for new arrest warrants linked to the current conflict in Sudan and called on the Sudanese authorities to enhance cooperation with the ICC.

On the other hand, Algeria, China, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, and the US are not states parties to the ICC’s Rome Statute and have expressed scepticism or outright criticism of the ICC’s role. Russia has been particularly vocal, accusing the Court of selective justice and political bias. Russia’s negative view of the ICC hardened following the Court’s announcement on 17 March 2023 that it had issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova for allegedly committing the war crime of “unlawful deportation” and “unlawful transfer” of children from Ukraine to Russia.

During the Council’s 27 January briefing, Algeria, China, Pakistan, and Somalia underlined the importance of the principle of complementarity and supported Sudan’s judicial sovereignty. Algeria and Somalia also highlighted the need to revitalise Sudanese national justice institutions and to explore existing legal frameworks to administer justice, including African frameworks.

While the US has traditionally supported the ICC’s efforts concerning Sudan, it criticised the ICC for issuing arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for crimes against humanity and war crimes linked to Israel’s military actions in Gaza since at least 8 October 2023. 

In response, on 6 February, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order imposing sanctions on the ICC and Khan. On 5 June, the US also sanctioned four individuals serving as ICC judges for their roles in authorising investigations into US personnel in Afghanistan and issuing arrest warrants for Israeli officials.

Several Council members, supportive of the ICC’s work on Darfur, have expressed concern over efforts to undermine the Court’s independence, including through the use of sanctions and political pressure. These members have condemned any attempts to intimidate the OTP, warning that such measures could hinder the Court’s ability to carry out its mandate not only in Sudan but also in other jurisdictions.

Download Complete Forecast: PDF

View original:  https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2025-07/sudan-36.php

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UK statement at UNSC: In April, UK's Foreign Secretary will convene FM's in London to help end Sudan conflict and improve humanitarian response

HERE is a speech by UK's Lord Collins of Highbury, Minister for Africa and the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Sudan held 13 March 2025.

Note, fighting in Sudan has displaced approximately 12.8 million people, roughly 3.7 million of whom have sought refuge in Sudan’s neighbouring countries—the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, South Sudan, and Uganda. Read more in report from What's in Blue below.

In April, the UK’s Foreign Secretary will convene Foreign Ministers in London to help end the conflict and to improve the humanitarian response.

______________________________

From Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office 

and Lord Collins of Highbury

Published: Thursday 13 March 2025
Speech location: United Nations, New York
Delivered on 13 March 2025 (Transcript of the speech, exactly as it was delivered) - full copy:

Greater international action is needed to tackle widespread sexual violence in Sudan: UK statement at the UN Security Council

Statement by Lord Collins of Highbury, Minister for Africa and the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Sudan.

Thank you to our briefers UNICEF and MSF. 

As you have made clear, women and girls in Sudan continue to face the worst horrors of this conflict.

Almost two years since the fighting began, more than 12 million people are now at risk of sexual and gender-based violence, according to UNICEF reports. 

And Sudan’s healthcare system has been decimated by the conflict, making it even harder for survivors to access support.

The UK’s Foreign Secretary travelled to the Sudan-Chad border in January and met survivors of sexual violence who shared their harrowing stories of rape and torture.

And the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan has reported that rape and gang rape is widespread in the context of the conflict in Sudan.

Acts of sexual violence constitute crimes under international law. 

And it is the responsibility of this Council to act.

President, it is clear that greater international action is needed to tackle widespread sexual violence in Sudan. The United Kingdom is committed to playing its part.

This week I joined a meeting of the International Alliance on Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict, convened by Ukraine, to discuss the urgent need for joined-up, survivor-centred responses.

Through the UK-funded Women’s Integrated Sexual Health programme, we are providing sexual and reproductive services to women and children in Sudan.

We are also working with UN and NGO partners to provide safe spaces, mobile clinic treatment, dignity kits and psycho-social services for survivors.

But to have most impact, it is important that the international community comes together to address sexual violence in Sudan by taking 4 key steps.

First, by continuing to press the warring parties to comply with the commitments they made to protect civilians in the Jeddah Declaration.

Second, by giving support to civil society organisations on the ground who are playing a crucial role in assisting survivors of sexual violence.

Third, by supporting the International Criminal Court and the UN Fact-Finding Mission to carry out impartial investigations.

And fourth, by ensuring that the protection of civilians remains at the top of this Council’s agenda.

President, looking ahead, in April, the UK’s Foreign Secretary will convene Foreign Ministers in London to help end the conflict and to improve the humanitarian response.

Bringing an end to the conflict will be a critical step towards ending sexual and gender-based violence in Sudan.

Colleagues, we must continue working together closely until we achieve that goal.

View original: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/greater-international-action-is-needed-to-tackle-widespread-sexual-violence-in-sudan-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-council

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Related

Report from What's In Blue 

Dated Wednesday 12 March 2025

Sudan: Briefing

Nearly two years into the war, which started on 15 April 2023, Sudan has witnessed a devastating humanitarian crisis, resulting in significant civilian casualties, mass displacement, and acute food and water shortages. 

The crisis has also been marked by a collapse of healthcare and essential services and grave violations of international humanitarian law, including widespread incidents of CRSV.

The fighting has displaced approximately 12.8 million people, roughly 3.7 million of whom have sought refuge in Sudan’s neighbouring countries—the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, South Sudan, and Uganda.

Full story: https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2025/03/sudan-briefing-5.php

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Sudan: UNSC Vote on a Draft Resolution (Preamble)

"It seems that on 5 March, the Sudanese government sent a letter to the Security Council, conveying its decision to facilitate the entry and delivery of humanitarian aid through several routes, including from Chad through the Tina border crossing; from South Sudan through the Renk border crossing; and through humanitarian flights accessing airports in the cities of Al Fasher, Kadugli, and Al Obeid. The draft resolution in blue includes language welcoming the Sudanese government’s announcement as a positive step." Read more.

From UN Security Council
What's In Blue 
Dated Friday, 8 March 2024, 19:25 GMT - here is a copy in full:

Sudan: Vote on a Draft Resolution

This afternoon (8 March), the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts on 10 March. The draft text was proposed by the UK, the penholder on Sudan. Following the vote on this draft resolution, the Council will vote on a draft resolution extending the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee.

The UK circulated a one-page zero draft to Council members on Monday (4 March), inviting comments on the text until the next day (5 March). The penholder subsequently circulated a revised draft text on Wednesday (6 March) and put it under silence procedure until yesterday (7 March). Russia broke silence, after which some members submitted additional comments. Russia apparently expressed reservations about the need for a Council resolution and proposed a draft presidential statement as an alternative. The penholder subsequently amended the draft resolution, taking into account additional comments and incorporating some elements from Russia’s proposed presidential statement, and put the revised draft text directly into blue yesterday evening.

The draft resolution in blue calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities during the month of Ramadan and for all warring parties to seek a sustainable resolution to the conflict through dialogue. It also calls on all parties to ensure the removal of any obstructions to the delivery of aid and to enable full, rapid, safe, and unhindered humanitarian access, including cross-border and cross-line, and to comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law and the “Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan”, which was signed by the warring parties in Jeddah on 11 May 2023 with the facilitation of Saudi Arabia and the US.

Over the last 11 months, Sudan has been grappling with the devastating political, security, and humanitarian consequences of fighting that erupted on 15 April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s military leader and chairperson of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemeti). 

As at 16 February, more than 14,600 people had reportedly been killed since the onset of the conflict, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), a non-governmental organisation (NGO) that collects conflict-related data. 

OCHA’s 23 February Humanitarian Update noted that approximately 8.1 million people have been displaced since the start of the conflict, of whom 1.8 million have fled to neighbouring countries, including the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, and South Sudan. 

In addition, according to the World Food Programme, nearly 18 million people are facing acute food insecurity in Sudan, including almost five million at emergency hunger levels. (For background and more information, see the Sudan brief in our March 2024 Monthly Forecast and our 7 March What’s in Blue story.)

The fighting has continued unabated despite several calls for a ceasefire from regional stakeholders and the broader international community. In his remarks during a Security Council meeting on the situation in Sudan held yesterday, Secretary-General António Guterres cautioned that the Sudanese conflict “could ignite regional instability of dramatic proportions, from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea”. 

He added that there have been renewed offensives in several states, including Khartoum and Al Jazirah, and that the hostilities could expand further east. Guterres expressed alarm about calls for arming civilians and popular mobilisation activities in various states and took note of the involvement of other armed groups, primarily in Darfur and South Kordofan states. All these developments “are pouring fuel on the fire for an even more serious fragmentation of the country, a deepening of intra- and inter-communal tensions, and more ethnic violence”, Guterres said.

In light of the upcoming occasion of Ramadan, Guterres called on the warring parties to observe a cessation of hostilities, a call which most Council members supported in their statements at yesterday’s meeting. Algeria, speaking on behalf of the members of the “A3 plus one” grouping (Algeria, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Guyana), called on the warring parties to declare an immediate ceasefire, to put aside their differences, and to use the opportunity of Ramadan to exercise restraint for ensuring a durable peace in Sudan.

Leaders of several regional and intergovernmental organisations have also called on the Sudanese warring parties to observe a ceasefire during Ramadan. In a 6 March statement, League of Arab States (LAS) Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit urged all the parties to pursue efforts towards peace and dialogue.

He expressed the LAS’ commitment to support efforts to restore peace and stability in Sudan. In a communiqué released earlier today, African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat called on the warring parties to observe a ceasefire across Sudan during Ramadan, saying that this could help facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to civilians in need.

In his statement during yesterday’s Council meeting, Sudan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Al-Harith Idriss al-Harith Mohamed, conveyed al-Burhan’s message commending Guterres’ appeal for a cessation of hostilities during Ramadan. However, while expressing scepticism about the implementation of a cessation of hostilities in light of continuing attacks by the RSF, he said that “[a]ll those who would like to see that appeal transformed into action are welcome if they would like to present a mechanism for implementation”.

While Council members share concerns about the devastating effects of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, they have diverging views on the tools that the Council should use to address the situation. 

Throughout the negotiations, some members, including China and Russia, apparently pushed back against the need for a Council resolution and instead suggested adopting a presidential statement or a press statement, products which require consensus among Council members. It seems that these members argued for the need to have Council consensus on this subject and to respect the views of the concerned country. 

Commenting on the UK’s proposed draft resolution, China said in its remarks at yesterday’s Council meeting that “the Council’s actions should be conducive to diplomacy and avoid exacerbating tensions”. Despite these objections, the UK decided to continue negotiating the resolution and to put it to a vote today.

The draft resolution in blue encourages Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra “to use his good offices with the parties and the neighbouring States, complementing and coordinating regional peace efforts”. Lamamra assumed his role in November 2023 and has since been conducting diplomatic efforts, including through engagement with both warring parties and relevant stakeholders. 

Following yesterday’s open session on Sudan, Lamamra briefed Council members in closed consultations on his efforts towards resolving the crisis. (For more information, see our 6 March What’s in Blue story.)

It seems that on 5 March, the Sudanese government sent a letter to the Security Council, conveying its decision to facilitate the entry and delivery of humanitarian aid through several routes, including from Chad through the Tina border crossing; from South Sudan through the Renk border crossing; and through humanitarian flights accessing airports in the cities of Al Fasher, Kadugli, and Al Obeid. The draft resolution in blue includes language welcoming the Sudanese government’s announcement as a positive step.

The penholder made some additions and amendments to the preambular section of the draft resolution to accommodate comments from some Council members. Among other things, the draft resolution in blue, in its preambular paragraphs:

• expresses grave concern over the spreading violence and the deteriorating humanitarian situation, including crisis levels or worse of acute food insecurity, particularly in Darfur;
• takes note of the need for unhindered cross-border and cross-line humanitarian assistance into Darfur and encourages the parties to the conflict to continue working in close partnership with OCHA and international NGOs to ensure the delivery of life-saving humanitarian assistance;
• expresses concern at ongoing reports of violations of international humanitarian law and violations and abuses of human rights law, including cases of sexual violence in conflict;
• urges continuation and strengthened coordination of regional and international efforts to facilitate an end to the conflict and to restore a lasting inclusive civilian-led democratic transition; and
• welcomes the appointment of an AU High-Level Panel for Sudan and the AU’s commitment to working with the people of Sudan to end the fighting and to put in place a process towards achieving a lasting and inclusive peace, democracy, and justice in Sudan.

Tags: Insights on Africa, Sudan

View original: https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/03/sudan-vote-on-a-draft-resolution.php

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