Showing posts with label Bahrain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bahrain. Show all posts

Sunday, December 24, 2023

Why our world today is uncannily - and worryingly - like the one Jesus was born into 2,023 years ago

From The Mail Online

Written by NIALL FERGUSON 

Niall Ferguson is Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford, a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and columnist with Bloomberg Opinion


Dated: Saturday, 23 December 2023, 01:43 - here is a copy in full:


Why our world today is uncannily - and worryingly - like the one Jesus was born into 2,023 years ago

The story of Jesus's birth is rarely told with much 
attention to its historical context 

It happened during the reign of the first Roman emperor. A child was born in an obscure farm building in a Middle Eastern province of the empire. 


All kinds of strange events occurred around the time of His birth, including a massacre of children, ordered by the Judean King Herod.


Along with some bewildered shepherds, three foreign 'magi' (wise men) found their way to the child's birthplace. But no one in the imperial capital Rome paid much attention.


This proved to be a mistake, as the birth of this child would ultimately transform the empire — and the world — for ever.


The story of Jesus's birth is rarely told with much attention to its historical context. But this year the circumstances of the time seem uncannily relevant. The Middle East is in just the kind of turmoil that had led the Romans to impose their imperial rule on Judaea.


And the United States is in just the kind of political crisis that led the Roman republic to become an empire under Augustus Caesar. In other surprising ways, too, what we are living through is similar to what the people of the early first century experienced.


Like our ancestors two millennia ago, we inhabit a distressing spiritual vacuum marked by pleasure seeking and unbridled consumerism. 


Christianity, the old religion, has become hollow to us, even as we go through the motions of recollecting the story of Christ's birth.


Let's begin with the war in the Middle East, which I believe will ultimately lead the United States to send troops back into the region, despite the painful memories of the 2003 Iraq invasion and subsequent occupation — which, in truth, are painful only for the families of the relatively small number of U.S. service personnel who were killed (3,519) or wounded (32,000) there. God bless them and their British counterparts this Christmas.


Most of us have strongly held but casually informed political opinions on the Middle East. On one side, supporters of Israel — not all of them Jews — regard it as obvious that Israel has a right to defend itself after the horrendous atrocities perpetrated against Israeli civilians by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) on October 7.


Supporters of the Palestinians, some of whom shamelessly celebrated those atrocities, insist that the Palestinian resistance is justified because of the wretched conditions in Gaza and the lack of Israeli commitment to a viable Palestinian state. Arguments about the issue will ruin many a family Christmas this year.


However, this debate about whose cause is more just — the Israelis' or the Palestinians' — misses the point. 


The reality is that, in the 50 years since the last surprise attack on Israel on the Holy Day of Yom Kippur (October 6, 1973), it has proved impossible for Israel to find a peaceful modus vivendi with the Palestinians.


Israel made peace with Egypt at Camp David in 1978. It made peace with Jordan in 1994. It signed the Oslo Accords with the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1995. 


And, under the Abraham Accords of 2020-21, Israel normalised its relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.


Indeed, it was about to reach a similar rapprochement with Saudi Arabia when the slaughter of the innocents happened on October 7, freezing if not killing the negotiations.

The United States is in just the kind of political crisis that led the Roman republic to become an empire under Augustus Caesar

There are two obvious reasons why peace with the Palestinians has proved elusive. First, the Palestinian Authority established under the Oslo Accords has proved to be an oxymoron — it lacks any kind of authority.


Second, many Palestinians themselves have preferred the path of violence, turning to Hamas and other terrorist groups for leadership, apparently oblivious to Hamas's true character as a criminal racket. 


While ordinary Gazans bear the brunt of Israel's war of retaliation, the Hamas mafiosi live in luxury in Qatar on the money sent to Gaza by naive international donors.


But there is a third explanation for the agony of the Holy Land, and that is geopolitical. The Abraham Accords were one of the diplomatic triumphs of Donald Trump's administration. 


Yet Joe Biden decided to change course, opting to try to revive the obviously dead Iran nuclear deal, the 'Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action' of 2015.


That deal was President Barack Obama's attempt to induce the Islamic Republic of Iran to suspend — not to end — its nuclear weapons program in return for relief from U. S. sanctions.


It did nothing to prevent Iran using the money it received under the deal to finance terrorist organisations throughout the region, including not only Hamas and PIJ, but also Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.


That was why Trump abandoned the nuclear deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. It was why in 2020 he killed one of Iran's principal malefactors, Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.


The present crisis in the Middle East is, therefore, the result of a combination of Iranian aggression and American pusillanimity.


Consider the passivity with which Washington has reacted to a succession of Houthi attacks on U.S. bases in the region and, most recently, merchant shipping in the Red Sea. 


Why send two aircraft-carrier strike groups to the region if you have no intention of using them for fear of 'escalating' the crisis?


However, the haplessness of the Biden administration's foreign policy is not the main reason why Trump is now narrowly the favourite to be the next president of the United States, though the perception that Biden is drifting into new 'forever wars' is playing its part.


The probability of Trump's re-election on November 5 next year is now, in my view, above 50 per cent. The prediction market agrees. So do most recent polls.


Despite his sea of legal troubles — and perhaps partly because of them — the former president is the clear frontrunner to be the Republican nominee, about 50 points ahead of Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. 


And Trump is well placed to defeat Biden in a rerun of the 2020 contest, especially if you look at his polling leads in key swing states.


The crucial issue is not Biden's foreign policy flops. Nor is it his advanced age, though even a majority of Democratic voters admit that, at 81, he is too old to be president. The key issue is 'Bidenomics,' a term devised by the dotard president's handlers.

Trump is well placed to defeat Biden in a rerun of the 2020 contest, 
especially if you look at his polling leads in key swing states

Objectively, by most conventional measures, the U.S. economy is in good shape — certainly in better shape than Britain's or Europe's. Unemployment is low (3.7 per cent). Inflation has come down substantially (to 3.1 per cent, compared with a peak of 9.1 per cent in June last year). The financial markets are rooting for interest-rate cuts next year. 


But voters have still not forgiven the administration for the inflation they suffered last year. They also sense that a slowdown is coming, if not a recession — the inevitable result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.


As a consequence, Biden's polling on this key issue is terrible: on average, nearly 61 per cent of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy, and 65 per cent his handling of inflation. An even higher proportion (69 per cent) think the country is 'on the wrong track'.


Though he has not sunk as low as Jimmy Carter in 1979, Biden's position is uncomfortably similar to that of Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush at the same stages in their only presidential terms.


I do not entirely blame my fellow Americans for considering re-electing Trump. His first term was much better for the average U.S. household — who saw their real income surge 9 per cent before Covid struck, after 17 years of stagnation — than most elite media coverage would have you believe.


However, in view of all that has emerged about Trump's unconscionably reckless conduct between election night 2020 and the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, I fear that his return to the White House could mark the beginning of the end of the American republic and the first step towards an unconstitutional American empire.


And I worry that Trump will be able to justify overriding the constitution by pointing to both domestic and international emergencies.


At home, there will inevitably be 'mainly peaceful' (i.e. partly violent) protests in Democratic strongholds if Trump is declared the election winner.


Abroad, Trump will inherit a triple global crisis in Ukraine, Israel and potentially also Taiwan. Even if China's President Xi Jinping does not risk blockading the island he covets, it would not surprise me if Hezbollah opened a new front against Israel in the New Year.


Consider how the Roman republic died as the ruthless political operator Octavian — Julius Caesar's adopted son — asserted his power.


He became emperor by steps: first as one of the second triumvirate — an alliance between three rival statesmen, Octavian, Mark Antony and Lepidus, giving them absolute power; then as lifetime commander-in-chief (imperator), tribune and censor; and finally as 'princeps civitatis' (First Citizen) with the title 'Augustus'.


What made the Roman Empire possible — indeed, necessary — was the need to end a state of recurrent civil war at home and of geopolitical crisis abroad, especially in the Middle East, but also in central Europe — Rome's Ukraine was Germania — and even in unruly Britannia, conquered by the Romans after AD 43.


Augustus won power by ousting Lepidus and then defeating Mark Antony and his lover Queen Cleopatra and invading Egypt, which he subsequently annexed. It was Augustus, too, who incorporated Judaea, including Herod's kingdom, into the Empire. It was a Roman census that required Joseph and the pregnant Mary to travel from Nazareth to Bethlehem.


And this brings me to the other major resemblance between our time and the time of Jesus's birth 2,023 years ago.


One reason why Donald Trump's return to power is now a possibility is that we in the West inhabit a moral and ethical wasteland. If we were still a truly Christian civilisation, Trump would stand no chance of becoming president again.


A people who were committed to the teachings of the Old and New Testaments would have no hesitation in identifying him as a serial violator of at least half the Ten Commandments and, therefore, morally unqualified to occupy the highest office in the republic.


Yet the U.S. today is only nominally a Christian country, in the sense that a majority of Americans still identify as Christians of one denomination or another.


According to survey data, both faith and observance have significantly declined in the 20 years since I have lived and worked there. In the 1990s, 90 per cent of Americans identified as Christians. It's now down to two-thirds. Weekly church attendance has also slumped.


In this respect, the U.S. is beginning to resemble England, where less than half the population (46.2 per cent) now say they are Christians. More than a third (37.2 per cent) say they have no religion, according to the 2021 census.


Like the people of the Roman Empire 2,000 years ago, we are almost entirely consumed by the pleasures and preoccupations of this world. One of many symptoms of our spiritual bankruptcy is the epidemic of mental ill-health sweeping the English-speaking world.

Dark days may lie ahead. It is some comfort, surely, that a saviour could be born at such a time

Another symptom is the slump in fertility rates as more and more couples opt to have just one child or no children at all.


Whatever people may say when they rationalise this decision to limit their reproduction below the replacement rate (to sustain the species), in truth the decision to restrict or forgo parenthood is an implicit expression of despair.


For there is no greater joy to be had in this world than that of bringing a baby into it. It is, I would argue, the ultimate affirmation of faith. Yes, we know that every child is doomed, as are we, to experience suffering and, inevitably, death.


And yet we know that the delights of life are worth all its trials and its inevitable end. A Christian knows that we humans are more than mere naked apes. We know that God made us 'in His image'.


It is, thus, no accident that at the heart of the Christian faith is the Nativity. The greatest story ever told begins with the birth of a baby boy, immaculately and divinely conceived, to a young Jewish woman. 


And the story ends, not with His cruel crucifixion in Jerusalem, but with the conquest of the Roman Empire itself by the religion founded by Him — Christos, the Anointed One of the Lord God.


This Christmas, let us remind ourselves that His 2,000-year reign over the faithful began not only amid a Middle Eastern crisis, but also in the period of transition from republic to empire.


Dark days may lie ahead. It is some comfort, surely, that a saviour could be born at such a time.


View original: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12895595/world-today-uncannily-one-Jesus-born.html#comments


ENDS

___________________________

Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem, said to be Jesus's birthplace  

Mail writer Richard Pendlebury pictured inside 
the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem, said to be Jesus's birthplace 

ENDS 

Friday, May 05, 2023

UAE’s long alleged link to the RSF. Emails sent by RSF to UK MPs by one of Sudan’s leading mining players

Report from the i

By Molly BlackallRichard Holmes

Friday 05 May 2023 1:59 pm (Updated 2:01 pm) - full copy:


Self-styled ‘ethical’ private equity firm in Dubai helped notorious Sudan militia to lobby UK MPs


EXCLUSIVE 

Revealed: The Rapid Support Forces have sent a string of “special bulletins” to UK politicians in recent days – but meta data exposing its Dubai links disappeared after i inquiries

A ‘special bulletin’ sent by the RSF to UK MPs this week. (Photo: i)


A self-styled ‘ethical’ investment firm based in the UAE supported the notorious paramilitary group the RSF in its bid to influence UK politicians about the conflict in Sudan, i can reveal. 


The Rapid Support Forces group (RSF), which has previously been accused of human rights atrocities in Sudan including rape and murder, has sent a string of “special bulletins” to UK politicians that it said was to combat “the disproportionate amount of disinformation” surrounding the conflict.


The memos contained allegations about barbarity by its opponents, the Sudanese Armed Forces, and claimed that the RSF was making dramatic progress in the fighting.  


i has analysed metadata from a briefing email that was sent from the RSF’s official media account to Westminster MPs on Tuesday, which shows it was put together by a designer at Dubai-based investment firm called Capital Tap Holdings.


When approached by i, the RSF initially confirmed that Capital Tap Holdings had produced parts of the briefing for them including the logo.


Capital Tap Holdings, which describes itself as “ethical” and a “responsible investor” has significant mining interests in Sudan and the wider continent. The RSF is reported to have control of some of Sudan’s gold mines.


Foreign Affairs Select Committee chair Alicia Kearns, who received the briefing, raised questions about the international support being given to the warring parties in Sudan. She told the House of Commons that it was “not some shoddily pulled together briefing” but a “clearly well-financed operation”.


Ms Kearns told i that any organisation providing PR to the RSF was stoking the current conflict and hinted that sanctions could be necessary to deter international support for the warring groups.


“Any organisation providing PR support to the RSF is seeking to legitimise them and reject peaceful transition away from military rule in Sudan,” she told i. “I urge them to stop, before international sanctions are required.”


A spokesperson for the RSF – which has been accused of group atrocities including rape and murder in Sudan in 2014 and 2015 – confirmed it had emailed MPs, journalists and “experts focused on the Middle East Africa” in order to “take measures to better inform the international community about what is happening on the ground in Sudan”. It said it had specifically targeted MPs who are sitting on committees related to security and Africa.


Metadata shows that the author of the briefing was a designer at Capital Tap. However, the RSF insisted there was “no working relationship” between the two and claimed the firm helped with the briefing free of charge.


“A relative of the RSF management reached out to a close friend, who [works] at Capital Tap, asking for design support to create a new letterhead and logo. The services were rendered at no cost. There is no working relationship between Capital Tap and the RSF,” an RSF spokesperson initially told i.


After further briefings in the same format were sent out to MPs on Thursday and Friday, the RSF then claimed Capital Tap “played no role in the creation of any of the press briefings, including the first press briefing, or any other press releases” and said they had “no relation” with them. Capital Tap Holdings did not respond to repeated requests for comment. The subsequent briefings had been stripped of metadata.


The discoveries raise further questions about foreign influence in the conflict in Sudan, after an i investigation revealed that Russian private mercenary group Wagner are on the ground and actively involved in the clashes.


Investment firm ‘one of Sudan’s leading mining players’


Capital Tap Holdings claims on its website to have a focus on “integrity” and green credentials, saying that “environmental responsibility is high on the agenda” and that it aims “to build a better and sustainable way of life for the weaker sections of society.”


The firm also describes itself as one of Sudan’s “leading metals and mining players” but the specific role it plays in the mining industry is unclear. Sudan is Africa’s third largest producer of gold, with an industry worth billions of pounds each year, and the RSF have long been reported to be involved in Sudan’s lucrative gold industry.


On its website, Capital Tap Holdings claims to “oversee operations” for more than 50 companies in 10 countries across Europe, the Middle East and Africa and Asia, providing “strategic direction and corporate support”. Their subsidiary company, Terra Metallis, claims to manage five mines in Africa. However, Capital Tap Holdings has little online footprint and is only mentioned in one 2021 news report online.


The RSF bulletin which received assistance from Capital Tap, issued on 1 May 2023, promised to provide “a breakdown of the most significant daily events from the field of battle in Sudan” and said it was founded by the RSF “due to the disproportionate amount of disinformation shared in the media about the conflict.”


It included criticism of its opponents, the Sudanese armed forces, saying that they have violated the ceasefire with “indiscriminate bombing campaigns” on civilians and claims that the RSF now controls 90 per cent of the Sudanese capital. It also provided a list of 20 “achievements” made since the start of the conflict, including claiming control of the airport, radio and TV service, Republican Palace and Defence Ministry.


Another 12-page briefing sent from the RSF to MPs two days later, after the RSF had been approached by i, had been stripped of metadata to indicate its origins.


It contained a series of pictures and videos depicting alleged atrocities against civilians made by the Sudanese Armed Forces, and also contained analysis of “popular memes circulating today on social media in Sudan” regarding the conflict. It included QR codes which could be scanned to take the reader to the RSF website.


Human Rights Watch has claimed that both sides of the current conflict – the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces – have killed civilians in bombing attacks on urban areas and left millions without access to basic necessities.

One page of a briefing sent out to UK Parliamentarians. (Photo: i)


A further briefing was sent out on 4 May, also with no metadata, containing more allegations against the Sudanese army, meme analysis and QR codes.


Sources working in research on Sudan noted that the RSF has previously worked with several high-end PR firms to improve the image of their leader Hemedti and said the press briefings “sound like a similar trend.”


“A significant portion of the RSF’s media arm appears to be based in the UAE, which is unsurprising given their extensive commercial networks across the Emirates,” they added.


Steve Double, a partner at crisis communications specialists Alder, said the briefings were a “remarkably slick communications programme, clearly designed at winning the propaganda war.”


UAE’s long alleged link to the RSF


While there is no evidence to suggest Capital Tap is linked to the UAE state, the state has long been reported to have links to the RSF.


Last month, a video appeared to show the RSF with bombs linked to the UAE. The thermobaric shells contained markings suggesting they were manufactured in Serbia in 2020 and later supplied to the UAE, according to The Telegraph.


Local reports citing RSF sources said that the UAE was considering transporting RSF fighters currently in Yemen back to Sudan to join the conflict. The reports said that the RSF’s leader Hemedti has appealed for help from the UAE, which has agreed to “support us in this war of liberation” and provide logistic and financial assistance to transport the RSF fighters to Sudan.


The paramilitary group are also reported to have sent fighters to support the UAE in Libya in recent years. The UAE Government did not respond to a request for comment.


One source assisting civilians in Sudan said that the UAE was presumed to have involvement in the current conflict, saying: “They support RSF and RSF have provided forces to the Yemen crisis. It is presumed that the RSF will be able to provide forces in future if need be in places like Bahrain should there be conflict there.”


The RSF’s social media accounts also appear to be based overseas, providing further indication that the group’s public relations are being outsourced to Gulf states.


The RSF’s Facebook page is being run jointly from the UAE and Sudan, according to information on the account, while its Instagram account appears to be based in Saudi Arabia. Both accounts are being shared by the RSF’s media operation as its legitimate online presence.


But the paramilitary group told i its media team was based in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum.


Conflict information ‘increasingly hard to trust’


The findings also raise questions about the impact of internet warfare, and the growing importance of technology in conflict zones.


Kyle Walter, Head of Research and Insights at Logically, an AI analysis firm, said: “What’s most concerning from this latest example of potential foreign interference is that it provides a look into how the nature of these threats are evolving, particularly in the context of the rapid onset of generative AI being used to create fake images and text.


“Although we don’t know if this so-called sophisticated ‘special bulletin’ was created by this technology, it is symbolic of the wider issue at hand: an inability to trust what you’re seeing, reading, and the undermining of the entire information landscape. If foreign influence campaigns continue to evolve and harness new technologies to produce mis- and disinformation at scale, we can expect to see more fabricated statements, or images of potential humanitarian crises to alter the wider discourse.”


Mr Walter said that the “attempt to manipulate the information environment is not surprising” and “nothing new in the context of foreign influence operations in Africa.”


“Recent years have witnessed foreign actors continuing to ramp up the use of different tactics to manipulate public discourse, whether it’s through propaganda, deception, and other non-military means. What we are seeing now in Sudan is another example of how the Wagner Group and other actors tied to foreign states seek to use the manipulation of information to have more control over public discourse and unsettle Western interests in the region,” he said.


View original: https://inews.co.uk/news/ethical-private-equity-firm-dubai-sudan-militia-lobby-uk-mps-2319805?ico=most_popular


[Ends]