Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Sunday, January 21, 2024

‘No diplomatic end to Sudan’s war in sight' -Baldo

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Peace meetings between Messrs Burhan and Hemeti could happen as soon as Hemeti makes his fighters leave Khartoum and move out of the residential homes and properties they've commandeered in Khartoum. It's as simple as that. Once that happens, Gen. Burhan said (many times) he will attend ceasefire and peace talks. The fact that none of it has happened proves Hemeti is not genuine in wanting peace and security for the people of Sudan. He wants Sudan and what's left of it by the time he's hauled off to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
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From Radio Dabanga
Dated Friday, 12 January 2024; 18:00 NEW YORK - here is a copy in full:

‘No diplomatic end to Sudan’s war in sight,’ warns Suliman Baldo

Map of Sudan showing areas under SAF (in red) and RSF (in yellow) control as of December 21, 2023 (Source: @ThomasVLinge via X)


As the war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) soon enters its ninth month, there remains no tangible end in sight to the widespread suffering endured by the country and its people. That is despite a flurry of diplomatic mediation efforts, says prominent Sudanese researcher Suliman Baldo.


In his analysis ‘Sudan’s Interminable War, published by the International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives on Tuesday, conflict resolution expert Suliman Baldo* observes that while both the SAF and the RSF “initially believed they would crush the other in days”, the conflict has dragged on into “multiple localised ethnically driven clashes beyond either party’s control”.


On the ground, the RSF has succeeded in expanding its territorial control in Darfur, Kordofan, and Khartoum, while SAF remains in control of northern, central, and eastern regions, including de-facto administrative capital Port Sudan. In December, an RSF offensive “wrestled the central Gezira state from the army’s control and threatened its presence in the White Nile and Sennar states”.


The war unmasked SAF’s ineptitude, Baldo asserts, “as its senior commanders became too steeped in grand corruption practices to pay attention to the decay of SAF as a fighting force”.


Their adversary, the RSF, is “ethnically aligned, with plunder as the main motivation of its fighters”. The paramilitary force “proved incapable of providing for the population” in El Gezira after it took over the former safe haven for those who fled Khartoum and El Obeid in the early days of the war.


At the end of December, the Wad Madani Resistance Committees lamented the deterioration of security, health and humanitarian conditions in El Gezira, continued attacks by the RSF, the lack of functional hospitals, and the ongoing waves of displacement in the state.


The region is divided over Sudan. Sudanese policy analyst Kholood Khair and civil society activist Asmahan Akam wrote in Time magazine in December that “Egypt, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia support the SAF while the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a UN Security Council member, backs the RSF in seeming violation of the body’s own arms embargo on Darfur, first enacted in 2004 and just renewed (with a yes vote from the UAE) in March 2023”.


‘No tangible solution’


The SAF, with junta leader Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan at its head, conditions a ceasefire on the RSF evacuating private and residential areas. Baldo explains that this is most likely to be rejected by the latter, as it maintains a tactical advantage in doing so, especially in Khartoum where it continues to lay siege to several SAF command stations.


Whilst ongoing conflict threatens SAF’s collapse, Baldo believes, “a traffic jam of diplomatic initiatives” has yet to bring forth any sustainable nor tangible end to the conflict.


The Jeddah talks, facilitated by the US and Saudi Arabia, stalled due to belligerents’ failures to honour commitments. The United Nations (UN) “was relegated to an observer’s seat as Sudan unilaterally terminated its political mission”, whereas “offers of mediation by Russia, Turkey, and a Sudan neighbours’ initiative launched by Egypt in July failed to generate traction because the RSF declined to cooperate with any”.


By the end of 2023, the Horn of Africa Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), whose members include Djibouti, Kenya, the Sudans, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea, emerged as a lead mediator for a humanitarian ceasefire and civilian-led political negotiations.


IGAD convened in Djibouti in early December, for an extraordinary assembly session on the situation in Sudan, where members agreed to redouble efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution, including mediating head-to-head talks between El Burhan and RSF commander ‘Hemedti’.


“However, several challenges emerged in the final days of 2023 and early 2024 that risk derailing the IGAD’s role in these processes.”


Hours after the IGAD communiqué of the summit was released, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs initially denied El Burhan’s agreement to meet with Hemedti without conditions, stating that the communiqué’s content “was not based on consensus nor legally binding.”


Baldo notes that the FA Ministry is “dominated by Islamist allies of the SAF who are most likely behind the initial rejection of the offer. El Burhan later agreed to meet with Hemedti.


Another challenge facing IGAD’s role is the official reception and hospitality received by Hemedti during his Africa tour, in which he was hosted by the heads of four IGAD member states, including chairperson Ismail Guelleh, the President of Djibouti.


“Hemedti’s reception as a visiting dignitary bestowed on him a diplomatic legitimacy that provoked the ire of the SAF, and made less likely that Burhan would agree to meet with him under the IGAD’s auspices after this slight”, the expert explained.


Last June, Sudan’s Sovereignty Council, chaired by El Burhan, declared that “Kenya is not neutral and is home to RSF rebel leaders”.


Last week, acting FA Minister Ali El Sadig announced that Sudan summoned the Kenyan ambassador to protest against the official reception of Hemedti by the Kenyan president.


* Dr Suliman Baldo is an expert in justice, human rights and conflict resolution in Africa and served as the Africa head of International Crisis group, the International Center for Transitional Justice, and has also held human rights and mediation posts in the United Nations. He has provided expert advice on human rights in Mali and Darfur and currently leads the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker. (Source: International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives website)


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View original: https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/no-diplomatic-end-to-sudans-war-in-sight-warns-suliman-baldo


ENDS

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Sudan: Janjaweed RSF militia chief Hemeti met with South Sudanese officials from Abyei in Nairobi Jan 3

ACCORDING to this article, the primary purpose of the meeting cited was to follow up on previous discussions held in Khartoum regarding the final status of Abyei and the repatriation of Abyei citizens who had sought refuge in Sudan prior to the Sudanese crisisWho is giving Hemeti such confidence and authority to attend to such matters? Who is in charge of Sudan? Let's not forget, in 2020 Russia signed a deal with Sudan for a naval base in the Red Sea, in return Russia will provide arms and training for Sudan's military.

Read more from Sudan Tribune
Dated Sunday, 07 January 2024 - here is a copy in full:

Sudanese RSF leader pledges safe passage for Abyei and South Sudan returnees

Hemetti met with several South Sudanese officials from Abyei area in Nairobi on January 3, 2023 [2024?]


January 7, 2024 (JUBA) – General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo “Hemetti”, the head of the Sudanese paramilitary group Rapid Support Force (RSF), has reaffirmed his commitment to facilitate the safe return of Abyei natives and South Sudanese nationals who have fled the conflict in Sudan.


The pledge was made during a meeting with Abyei leaders Francis Mading Deng and Luka Biong Deng in Nairobi, Kenya on January 3, 2024. The meeting, which lasted for an hour, was characterized as amicable, open, and forward-looking by Francis Kuol, a former Sudan cabinet affairs minister.


The primary purpose of the meeting was to follow up on previous discussions held in Khartoum regarding the final status of Abyei and the repatriation of Abyei citizens who had sought refuge in Sudan prior to the Sudanese crisis. Francis Deng, who has also engaged in similar discussions with General Burhan, the head of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, in New York, USA during his participation to the United Nations General Assembly in September 2022, added that he had also held similar dialogues with General Malik Agar, the Deputy Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, during his visits to Juba.


The Abyei leaders expressed their appreciation to Daglo for his endeavours to bring an end to the brutal civil war in Sudan and his historic diplomatic initiatives to neighbouring African countries in pursuit of peace.


The meeting touched upon three critical issues: peace in Sudan, the potential role of South Sudan under the leadership of President Salva Kiir in facilitating Sudanese peace, and the repatriation of Abyei natives displaced and stranded in RSF-controlled areas.


Deng highlighted the pivotal role that South Sudan, under the leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit, could play in mediating Sudanese peace. He emphasized the urgent need to establish secure conditions to enable the return of Abyei citizens displaced by the conflict in Sudan and the crucial role of the RSF in securing transit routes for the return of South Sudanese citizens.


The authorization of the meeting by President Salva Kiir and members of his administration remains unclear. The South Sudanese ambassador in Kenya declined to comment when asked if he had been informed of the arrangement.


Hemetti, heads the paramilitary Rapid Support Force, which has been engaged in a war against the Sudan Armed Forces under the command of its chief and Chairman of the Transitional Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, since April 2023.


The RSF has been out of the public eye for several months. He utilized this period to embark on diplomatic missions to neighbouring countries and participate in global events and functions.


In late December 2023, the head of the Sudanese paramilitary group made his first wartime diplomatic trip to Uganda, where he met with President Yoweri Museveni. He also met with leaders from Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, South Africa, and Rwanda. (ST)


View original: https://sudantribune.com/article281083/

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Further Reading


The Maritime Executive - 13 December 2017

Russia Moves Forward with Syrian Naval Base - excerpt:

"For Russia, a naval base in Syria . . . is always a place where Russian navy men can take a short rest and hold quick repairs, if necessary. Taking into account that the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions are of strategic importance for world security, Russian forces should stay here indefinitely," said Mikhail Nenashev, chairman of the All-Russian Fleet Support Movement, speaking to Pravda.


The base at Tartus has been under Russian control since 1971, and Russia finalized a 74-year renewal agreement with Syria in January with a 49-year lease followed by a 25-year automatic extension. The enlarged facility will operate outside of Damascus' legal jurisdiction, and Syria will not interfere with any military activities related to its operation. Separately, Russia has also renewed its lease on a military airbase in Western Syria for a period of 50 years. 

Full story: https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/russia-moves-forward-with-syrian-naval-base

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The Maritime Executive - 09 December 2020

Russia Signs Deal With Sudan for Naval Base on the Red Sea - excerpt:

The agreement provides the Russian Navy with access to Port Sudan for a period of 25 years, with automatic renewal every decade thereafter. It may keep up to four naval vessels at a time at the port, including nuclear-powered vessels - an important consideration for Russia's submarine fleet. For logistics, Russian forces have permission to use Sudanese ports and airports to deliver any needed "weapons and equipment" to keep the port running. On-base manning is limited to 300 Russian personnel. 


In return, Russia will provide arms and training for Sudan's military, extending a role it already plays in the country. Last year, Russia and Sudan signed a seven-year agreement that provides the Sudanese government with military support, and Russian military advisors have participated in Sudanese public security operations. 

Full story: https://maritime-executive.com/article/russia-signs-deal-with-sudan-for-naval-base-on-the-red-sea

ENDS

Thursday, December 21, 2023

Understanding the Sudanese Civil War. Muslim Brotherhood is to blame. Janjaweed's home is Darfur

"The first thing [Sudanese] Pastor Kuku says when I ask him about the situation [in Sudan] is that the Muslim Brotherhood is to blame. “As far as they are concerned, they must be in control,” he says. “No one is allowed to govern the country while they are around — the country will be ruined, or they rule it… They feel that anyone else who might rule are infidels.” 


The Brotherhood is an Islamic organization active in many countries. It supported the old dictator al-Bashir, and now supports his successor al-Burhan. The trouble is, Kuku says, the Brotherhood does not feel any sense of patriotism or belonging to Sudan. Their loyalty is to the Brotherhood. If they can rule Sudan, good — if not, let it be destroyed. If Sudan is ruined, they can move on. That’s their perspective.


The Janjaweed, which is currently occupying the capital Khartoum, isn’t any better. The Janjaweed just want to loot and pillage, in Kuku’s view. They don’t feel that they will get to keep Khartoum, so they want to destroy it out of envy and spite". Read more.

From The Stream
By PETER ROWDEN 
Dated 24 November 2023 - here is a copy in full:

Understanding the Sudanese Civil War

Flickr/Steve Evans/CC BY-NC 2.0


Wars are too quickly forgotten. A conflict starts and the whole world watches. When it drags on with no resolution, the world moves on — especially if there is no ideological battle being fought, or if another, fresher conflict grabs our attention.


Such is the case with Sudan. The world may be ready to let the violence there fade into the background, seeing it as another Yemen or Somalia, a place of perpetual violence better left ignored. But the people of Sudan, including the large Christian minority in the country, cannot move on.


Civil war has been raging in Sudan for over six months now. The cost in human lives is mind-boggling. An October 15 UN report reveals that perhaps as many as 9,000 people have been killed, 5.6 million have been displaced, 25 million are in need of humanitarian aid, and 19 million children have been unable to attend school.


On October 31, I sat down with a Sudanese Pastor, Younan Kuku, to talk about the situation. Pastor Kuku hails from the Nuba mountains on the border between Sudan and South Sudan. He currently lives in another Arab country where he pastors a church of Sudanese refugees and expatriates.


The Background of the Conflict


Sudan is a diverse country. Dozens of tribes speak dozens of languages and adhere to a mixture of religions — Muslim, Christian, and traditional animism. Some tribes have Arabian ethnic origins, speak Arabic as their mother-tongue, and consider themselves Arabs. Many of them live the traditional Arab lifestyle of nomadic pastoralism.


Oher tribes speak a variety of African languages and identify as African. Many are settled farmers who do not want nomadic pastoralists roaming over their lands. These differences — “Arab” vs. “African,” Muslim vs. Christian, agriculturalist vs. pastoralist — are the roots of the ethnic, religious, and economic conflicts that have beset the country for decades.


For thirty years, Sudan was ruled by the dictator Omar al-Bashir, an Islamic extremist from an Arab tribe who wanted to impose Sharia law throughout the country. He adopted a policy of ethnic cleansing with the aim of turning Sudan into an Arab Muslim nation. For this the southern part of the country, which was predominantly “African” and Christian/animist/syncretistic, seceded in 2011 to become the world’s newest independent nation, South Sudan.


Three other regions are controlled by rebel groups and have dreams of succession or overthrowing the government in Khartoum, but are not strong enough. They reside in the vast Darfur region in the west of the country, the Nuba Mountains in South Kordofan State on the southern border, and Blue Nile State in the southeast.


In the Darfur region, al-Bashir used an Arab militia group called the Janjaweed to carry out his genocidal plans while avoiding implication in the crimes. Eventually, the Janjaweed was made official and integrated into the Sudanese military government as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).


In 2019, a popular uprising unseated al-Bashir. He ended up in jail, and Sudan ostensibly began the transition to democracy. However, many of al-Bashir’s people remained in place in the government and the military.


In 2021 the military initiated another coup, overthrowing the civilian transitional government leadership. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan became the leader of the country. Burhan’s grip on Sudan was not strong, so he kept up the pretense of a transition to civilian rule. He left al-Bashir in jail, perhaps partly because al-Burhan would rather be in change than second fiddle.


For more than a year, the country was consumed with pro-democracy protests demanding that al-Burhan step down.


In April 2023 the leader of the RSF/Janjaweed, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (usually referred to as simply “Hemedti”), took advantage of al-Burhan’s unpopularity and the overall instability, and attempted to overthrow him. He portrayed himself as the true champion of the Sudanese people — despite the fact that it was he who oversaw many of the atrocities in the past Darfur conflicts.


The two men are now fighting over control of the country, but as far as most Sudanese people are concerned, both are villains.


“No Sense of Belonging”


The first thing Pastor Kuku says when I ask him about the situation is that the Muslim Brotherhood is to blame.


“As far as they are concerned, they must be in control,” he says. “No one is allowed to govern the country while they are around — the country will be ruined, or they rule it… They feel that anyone else who might rule are infidels.”


The Brotherhood is an Islamic organization active in many countries. It supported the old dictator al-Bashir, and now supports his successor al-Burhan.


The trouble is, Kuku says, the Brotherhood does not feel any sense of patriotism or belonging to Sudan. Their loyalty is to the Brotherhood. If they can rule Sudan, good — if not, let it be destroyed. If Sudan is ruined, they can move on. That’s their perspective.


The Janjaweed, which is currently occupying the capital Khartoum, isn’t any better. The Janjaweed just want to loot and pillage, in Kuku’s view. They don’t feel that they will get to keep Khartoum, so they want to destroy it out of envy and spite.


Khartoum


As a result, there are not many residents left in Khartoum proper, Kuku says — the city is mostly empty. However, people remain in the poorer urban areas on the edges of Khartoum proper, such as Omdurman and El-Haj Yousif. Residents of those areas don’t have the resources even to leave. Many of them came to Khartoum in the first place fleeing Darfur and other war torn areas of the country.


There is no real government in Khartoum. In the days of Omar Bashir, at least there was a government, Kuku says. “Now everything is ruined.”


I can see why any leadership at all would seem preferable to the current state of things. A video recently circulated in the Sudanese community that showed an iconic skyscraper in the capital burning. Khartoum does not have many skyscrapers, and I was shocked to see it destroyed — it had been perhaps the most impressive part of the skyline when I visited the city in 2022, a symbol of progress and development. Now it’s gone, and Khartoum is on its way to becoming a dystopian waste.


If the Janjaweed retains any control in Sudan, it will most likely be in its home turf of Darfur.


Darfur


“There many voices saying that Darfur must secede,” Kuku says.


In fact, people in Darfur have wanted to secede for a long time. The Janjaweed will support that idea, Kuku predicts, so that they can be left in charge of Darfur, and give the rest of Sudan to the al-Burhan and the Muslim Brotherhood.


However, the atrocities committed by the Janjaweed were part of the reason that many people in Darfur wanted to secede in the first place. If the Janjaweed takes over Darfur, the region could be left in the hands of a government just as genocidal as al-Bashir’s. The African tribes in Darfur want independence from Sudan, but not like this.


“I think it will happen,” says Kuku.


Nuba Mountains


Meanwhile, the rebels in the Nuba mountains don’t want to get involved in the war at all, because they consider both sides their enemies — and if they side with one side, the other side would punish them if it won.


So they are staying out of the conflict as much as possible. However, they are seizing the opportunity to re-take control of their own region, while the Sudanese military is otherwise occupied. The Nuba Mountains has its own functioning autonomous government. They have been thinking about independence for a long time. Kuku thinks that if Darfur secedes, the Nuba Mountains will ask for independence as well. But if there is any sort of peace compromise, they will be patient and hope for a better situation under the new government.


The Christian Community


Meanwhile, the Christian community scattered throughout the country is caught in the middle of the war. Both sides of the conflict are Islamic extremists. Kuku thinks that if the conflict resolves in any sort of compromise or peace agreement between the factions, there is hope that Christians may experience a little relief. But if the country is simply divided between Hemedti and al-Burhan, it could become very hard for the Christians in the new regimes.


Unfortunately, Christians don’t have much say in what happens to the country. They are left to make the best of it.


As reported here previously, the Christian community in the city of Wad Madani has been active in taking care of people flooding in from the capital. The situation remains very hard in Wad Madani because of the huge number of displaced people. People are sleeping in the schools, under trees, and beside houses, Kuku says.


The situation in the northern city of Atbara is similar.


The route for aid to reach the suffering people in Wad Madani and Atbara is through the Muslim Brotherhood in Port Sudan. Kuku indicates that although there is corruption, it is possible for some aid to actually reach them, especially if it is designated for the churches and not for the government. But not nearly enough aid is being sent.


The Future of Sudan


Most people in Sudan are Muslims, but they are not extremists and do not agree with the Brotherhood. The majority adhere to Sufism, a charismatic or mystical form of Islam that many Islamic extremists consider heretical. Syncretism and Muslims-in-name-only are also common.


Many people in Sudan, especially young people from the capital, want the Sudan to remain united. The younger generation wants change, and they want democracy, but they do not want the country to fall apart.

But politicians have other loyalties and think differently, Kuku says. The Sudanese people don’t want the Muslim Brotherhood to rule the country, nor the military. They want a civilian government. But the military won’t allow it.


“As far as I’m concerned, if Sudan remained one country it would be strong,” says Kuku.


I mentioned to him that on October 26, the RSF/Janjaweed and the military resumed peace talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.


“It won’t succeed,” says Kuku simply.


Neither side is serious about peace right now. The military leaders only understand the language of threats, Kuku thinks. If a more powerful military forced them to stop tearing the country apart, they would listen. But mere admonitions of peace won’t do anything. Both sides are treating the war like a game.


Please continue to pray for Sudan, especially our Christian brothers and sisters there.

 

Peter Rowden is a friend of The Stream living in the Middle East.


View original: https://stream.org/understanding-the-sudanese-civil-war/

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Postscript from Sudan Watch Editor 

Notes to self:

Which countries call the Muslim Brotherhood a “terrorist organisation”? To date, the countries that have labelled the MB as a “terrorist organisation” are: Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates

Who are the Muslim Brotherhood? The MB is the oldest political Islamist group in the Arab world. It is not allowed to operate as an official political party in some Arab countries.

Who are the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood? The supreme leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is Mohamed Badie, who is currently in prison, having been sentenced to a number of life in prison and death sentences for a variety of charges.

Why do Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates dislike the Muslim Brotherhood? In 2013, Saudi rulers threw their weight behind Egypt’s brutal crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood supporters. In March 2014, the kingdom designated the Muslim Brotherhood a “terrorist” group.

Source: Al Jazeera (2017)
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From Wikipedia the free encyclopedia - Muslim Brotherhood:
The Society of the Muslim Brothers better known as the Muslim Brotherhood is a transnational Sunni Islamist organization founded in Egypt by Islamic scholar and schoolteacher Hassan al-Banna in 1928.[23] Al-Banna's teachings spread far beyond Egypt, influencing today various Islamist movements from charitable organizations to political parties.[24]

Sudan
Further information: National Islamic Front, National Congress Party (Sudan), and Islamism in Sudan

Until the election of Hamas in Gaza, Sudan was the one country where the Brotherhood was most successful in gaining power, its members making up a large part of the government officialdom following the 1989 coup d'état by General Omar al-Bashir.[citation needed] However, the Sudanese government dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated National Islamic Front (NIF) has come under considerable criticism for its human rights policies, links to terrorist groups, and war in southern Sudan and Darfur.[citation needed]

ENDS