UK doubles its aid to Sudan over deepening concern of famine worse than the one in Ethiopia 40 years ago

HERE is an insightful comment posted by sami @sami75807477 at the following post on X/Twitter by Patrick Heinisch @PatrickHeinisc1.

What makes it surprise is when we African in need whites r there for us and when we r in deed in a good shape starting blame them for looting our resources. Above all, we Africans r so desperate to reach in to whites land but soon they welcome us we r again cursing. What a ppl!

— sami (@sami75807477) November 17, 2024

Hat tip: Eric Reeves @sudanreeves.

Sudan conflict spilling into oil-rich Abyei. South Sudan postpones its December 2024 election by two years

THE WORLD must not forget what is happening in South Sudan and Abyei, an oil-rich area on the border of South Sudan and Sudan. South Sudan postponed its first elections scheduled for December. Read more below.

Report from defenceWeb
Dated 07 November 2024 - full copy:

 Sudan conflict spilling into Abyei

UNISFA peacekeepers on humanitarian duty. Picture: United Nations.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) this week heard ongoing conflict in Sudan is “exacerbating instability” in Abyei, a 10 000 plus square kilometre contested area between Sudan and the world’s youngest country, South Sudan.

According to the world body, which has a peacekeeping mission on the ground in the oil-rich area, Abyei is claimed by both sides – RSF (Rapid Support Forces) and the Sudan Armed Force (SAF). The UN mission – UNISFA (UN Interim Security Force for Abyei) was first deployed in June 2011 and currently has 4 190 uniformed members and 3 743 civilians on its personnel strength.

Martha Pobee, Assistant Secretary-General for Africa at the UN Department of Peace Operations, told ambassadors on the Security Council the Sudan war continues to have a profound impact on the security, economic and humanitarian situations in South Sudan and Sudan.

Since the power struggle between rival militaries in Sudan began last April, Abyei and its neighbours have grappled with disruptions in oil production and surging refugee arrivals. These setbacks left already stretched resources in South Sudan under greater strain, with thousands of refugees enduring shortages of clean water, food and healthcare services.

Pobee highlighted continued proliferation of arms and heightened tensions, as observed with the recent incursion of RSF combatants into Abyei’s Aman-Aquak and Mijak counties, with reports of looting.

“The movement of armed groups is compounding the fragile security situation in South Sudan and Abyei,  particularly in relation to the pre-existing tensions between the Twic Mayardit and Ngok Dinka communities across Warrap state and Abyei,” she said.

Also this week, the African Union (AU) by way of its special envoy on the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities, added its condemnation of the ongoing Sudan conflict.

A statement has Adama Dieng saying reports of “grave crimes” including mass killing, summary executions, sexual assault, abduction, torture and looting have emerged despite a telecommunication black-out. As special envoy he urges the leaders of the two main fighting forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Dagalo “Hemedti” to de-escalate the fighting and, among others, refrain from targeting civilians.

View original: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/african-news/sudan-conflict-spilling-into-abyei/

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Related reports

From Al Jazeera 

Dated 14 September 2024 - excerpt:

South Sudan postpones December election by two years

Government says it needs more time to complete a census, draft a permanent constitution and register political parties.

President Salva Kiir, who has led South Sudan since it became independent from Sudan in 2011, had promised to hold elections in 2024 

[File: Gregorio Borgia/AP Photo]

South Sudan’s government has announced it is postponing long-delayed general elections until December 2026, citing a lack of preparedness. This is the second time the country, which gained independence in 2011, is postponing elections and extending a transitional period that started in February 2020. 

Full story: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/14/south-sudan-postpones-december-election-by-two-years

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From What's In Blue 

Dated 06 November 2024 - excerpt:

South Sudan: Briefing and Consultations

An expected focus of tomorrow’s [07 November] meeting is the 13 September decision by the signatories to the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) to extend the transitional period by 24 months. The decision postponed again the country’s first post-independence elections, which were scheduled for December 2024, until December 2026, and extended the transitional period until February 2027. The original transitional period outlined in the R-ARCSS was set to end in February 2023; it had been extended until February 2025 through a roadmap adopted in August 2022. (For background and more information, see the brief on South Sudan in our November 2024 Monthly Forecast.)

Full story: https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/11/south-sudan-briefing-and-consultations-26.php

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From The Conversation 

By Steven C. Roach

Dated 08 November 2024 - excerpt:

Salva Kiir: South Sudan’s president fought for independence, but then fuelled division, violence and corruption

Salva Kiir Mayardit has served as South Sudan’s president since the country’s independence in 2011. South Sudan’s secession from Sudan came on the heels of a long and bloody civil war that resulted in a referendum on independence. The initial optimism about the new state faded within two years when Kiir fell out with his vice-president, Riek Machar. The resulting civil war displaced some four million people and killed an estimated 388,000 people. With the two warring sides unable to reach agreement, the government postponed elections indefinitely in 2015 amid continuing civil strife.

Full story: https://theconversation.com/salva-kiir-south-sudans-president-fought-for-independence-but-then-fuelled-division-violence-and-corruption-242747

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From The East African 

By Garang Malak

Dated 08 November 2024 - excerpt:

South Sudan holdouts agree to resume peace talks in Nairobi

President Ruto says parties to the South Sudan peace process have agreed to resume mediation

Kenya's President William Ruto makes remarks, during the swearing-in ceremony of his new Deputy President, Kithure Kindiki, at the Kenya International Convention Centre (KICC) in Nairobi on November 1, 2024. Kindiki is an academic turned politician who was thrust into the limelight when he defended his boss President William Ruto at the International Criminal Court. The 52-year-old millionaire served as interior minister for more than two years before taking over as deputy president on November 1, 2024 following the historic impeachment of his predecessor, Rigathi Gachagua. (Photo by SIMON MAINA/Agence France-Presse (AFP)/AFP

South Sudan’s holdout groups, the non-signatories to the 2018 peace agreement, have agreed to resume peace talks in Nairobi after months of expressing security concerns and dissatisfaction with the process. This development follows Kenyan President William Ruto’s visit to Juba on Wednesday, where he held talks with President Salva Kiir, First Vice President Riek Machar and other key stakeholders in the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU).

Full story: https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/africa/south-sudan-holdouts-agree-to-resume-peace-talks-in-nairobi-a3ontus8

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Sudan: UN Security Council closed consultations may discuss measures to support protection of civilians

TOMORROW'S UN Security Council briefing and consultations "may provide a good opportunity for Council members to examine and have a frank discussion about potential measures that could be implemented to support PoC [protection of civilians] as well as assess existing strategies. 

In a communiqué adopted following a 9 October meeting, AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) members requested the AU Commission (the organisation’s secretariat) to reopen the AU liaison office in Port Sudan in order to facilitate the AU’s engagement with stakeholders in Sudan at all levels and to provide technical support to Sudan.

Amidst mounting protection concerns, several human rights organisations and Sudanese civil society actors have advocated for robust measures, including the deployment of protection forces in Sudan. The Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan, established by the Human Rights Council (HRC) in October 2023, recommended in its 6 September report the deployment of an independent and impartial force with a PoC mandate in Sudan.

On 18 October, the Secretary-General submitted his report (S/2024/759) pursuant to resolution 2736 of 13 June, which requested him to make recommendations for the protection of civilians (PoC) in Sudan. 

In a 25 October joint statement, officials from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and UNICEF called for intensifying the international response to match the scale of rising needs in Sudan. The reality on the ground, they said, “remains fraught with logistical and administrative barriers”, which have hindered the UN’s ability to provide aid and protection to vulnerable communities as well as effectively monitor the delivery of aid. They called for simplifying and expediting approval procedures for aid shipments and personnel, including facilitating cross-line access. The officials also called for re-establishing the UN offices in Zalingei, Central Darfur, and Kadugli, South Kordofan." 

Read more from What's In Blue 

Dated Sunday, 27 October 2024 - full copy:

Sudan: Briefing and Consultations

Tomorrow morning (28 October), the Security Council will hold an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Sudan. The meeting is being held pursuant to resolution 2715 of 1 December 2023, which requested the Secretary-General to provide a briefing every 120 days on the “UN’s efforts to support Sudan on its path towards peace and stability”. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and a civil society representative are expected to brief in the open chamber. Director of the Operations and Advocacy Division at the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Edem Wosornu and Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra will brief in the consultations.

Eighteen months into the conflict, hostilities continue unabated as the warring parties engage in a protracted war of attrition. Over the past several weeks, fighting intensified across multiple front lines as the rainy season subsided. In September, there was a severe escalation in El Fasher—the capital of North Darfur state, which has been under siege by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since May—after the RSF launched a coordinated attack on the city, followed by intensive shelling and airstrikes from both sides, resulting in civilian casualties. On 26 September, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched an offensive in Khartoum and surrounding areas in a bid to besiege areas under RSF control, making significant advances in the ensuing days. In addition, the SAF-aligned Darfur Joint Forces (a coalition of armed movements from Darfur) engaged in fighting with the RSF on several front lines in North and West Darfur states. In the past few weeks, the SAF has reportedly been able to make strategic advances in Sennar and Al Jazira states. Media reports indicate that, on 24 October, the RSF launched a retaliatory attack on villages in East Al Jazira, following the defection to the SAF of Abu Aqla Kikal, a prominent RSF commander. While some sources report that the attack killed about 50 people, others suggest that the death toll could be much higher. (For background and more information, see the brief on Sudan in our October 2024 Monthly Forecast and listen to our 4 September podcast episode.)

Tomorrow, Guterres and several Council members are expected to condemn the ongoing violence across the country and stress the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Guterres is likely to highlight that the conflict has resulted in a catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Sudan and has had destabilising effects on the region. On 18 October, the Secretary-General submitted his report (S/2024/759) pursuant to resolution 2736 of 13 June, which requested him to make recommendations for the protection of civilians (PoC) in Sudan. The report describes an alarming intensification of intercommunal and identity-based violence and highlights a significant increase in human rights violations and abuses in areas under the control of both warring parties. It outlines the widespread damage and destruction of civilian infrastructure, indiscriminate attacks carried out by the warring parties in residential neighbourhoods and sites sheltering internally displaced persons (IDPs), and the use of explosive weapons with wide-area effects. At tomorrow’s meeting, Guterres and several Council members are likely to emphasise the crucial need to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, including healthcare facilities and medical and humanitarian personnel.

Guterres is likely to focus on the recommendations outlined in his report under three broad headings: intensifying diplomacy towards ending the fighting, changing the behaviour of the warring parties, and supporting broader protection measures. The report highlights an urgent need for a renewed diplomatic push, including through the “personal involvement” of some heads of state, to ensure that the warring parties uphold their legal obligations. It calls on the warring parties and relevant stakeholders to pursue scalable, locally negotiated ceasefires and other measures to reduce violence, protect civilians, and prevent the spread of conflict. It strongly recommends that the warring parties establish a robust and transparent compliance mechanism, as a critical step to ensure implementation of the “Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan”, which was signed by both sides in Jeddah on 11 May 2023. The report calls for an immediate cessation of the direct or indirect flow of weapons and ammunitions into Sudan, which continue to fuel the conflict. Highlighting the need to monitor violations of international humanitarian law and human rights abuses, the report underlines the importance of supporting and cooperating with regional and international independent investigation bodies. It further calls on the international community to provide technical and financial support to Sudanese civil society organisations and community-based initiatives.

Amidst mounting protection concerns, several human rights organisations and Sudanese civil society actors have advocated for robust measures, including the deployment of protection forces in Sudan. The Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan, established by the Human Rights Council (HRC) in October 2023, recommended in its 6 September report the deployment of an independent and impartial force with a PoC mandate in Sudan. Some Council members are apparently exploring options for a possible deployment of an African Union (AU)-led mission and how the mission could be supported in the context of resolution 2719 of 21 December 2023 on the financing of AU-led peace support operations (AUPSOs). The Secretary-General’s report acknowledges these calls but notes that “at present, the conditions do not exist for the successful deployment of a UN force to protect civilians” in Sudan. However, it expresses the UN Secretariat’s readiness to engage with the Council and relevant stakeholders on “operational modalities”, including localised efforts feasible under the current conditions that can contribute to effectively reducing violence and protecting civilians.

Lamamra is expected to provide an update on the ongoing regional and international initiatives aimed at resolving the crisis, his engagement with key regional and international interlocutors, and his efforts to coordinate different peace initiatives. With the mediation efforts, not having achieved any breakthrough as yet, members might be interested in hearing Lamamra’s assessment of potential next steps, including strategies for enhancing cooperation among stakeholders and addressing the underlying issues hindering the peace process. Tomorrow’s closed consultations may provide a good opportunity for Council members to examine and have a frank discussion about potential measures that could be implemented to support PoC as well as assess existing strategies.

On 3 October, AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) members undertook a field mission to Port Sudan to engage with senior officials from the Sudanese authorities and other key stakeholders. In a communiqué adopted following a 9 October meeting, AUPSC members requested the AU Commission (the organisation’s secretariat) to reopen the AU liaison office in Port Sudan in order to facilitate the AU’s engagement with stakeholders in Sudan at all levels and to provide technical support to Sudan.

Wosornu is likely to highlight the spiralling humanitarian situation in the country, especially food insecurity, and describe efforts by the UN and its partners to deliver aid across Sudan. She and several Council members are likely to reiterate the critical need to ensure full, rapid, and sustained humanitarian access through all modalities and criticise impediments to such access. They may also call on the Sudanese authorities to extend the authorisation for the use of the Adre crossing at the Chad-Sudan border for humanitarian operations, which was initially authorised on 15 August for a three-month period.

In a 25 October joint statement, officials from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and UNICEF called for intensifying the international response to match the scale of rising needs in Sudan. While expressing appreciation for assurances of cooperation from the Sudanese authorities, they underlined the need to operationalise these commitments. The reality on the ground, they said, “remains fraught with logistical and administrative barriers”, which have hindered the UN’s ability to provide aid and protection to vulnerable communities as well as effectively monitor the delivery of aid. They called for simplifying and expediting approval procedures for aid shipments and personnel, including facilitating cross-line access. The officials also called for re-establishing the UN offices in Zalingei, Central Darfur, and Kadugli, South Kordofan.

Earlier this month, during negotiations on a draft press statement proposed by the UK (the penholder on Sudan), Russia apparently requested the removal of the phrase “administrative or other impediments”, arguing that it suggests that Port Sudan authorities are creating artificial barriers for aid delivery and distribution. Some members, such as France, however, contended that several obstacles remain to the delivery of aid. Continuing disagreements among members led the penholder to withdraw the draft text after four revised drafts. (For background on Council dynamics regarding the issue of humanitarian access, see the brief on Sudan in our October Monthly Forecast and 13 June What’s in Blue story.)

View original: https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/10/sudan-briefing-and-consultations-9.php

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Sudan army launches attack on Khartoum as rapidly spreading cholera outbreak kills 500 in two months

Report from Channel 4 News UK 

By Lindsey Hilsum 

International Editor 

Dated Friday, 27 September 2024 - full copy:

Sudan’s army launches major offensive on capital Khartoum

Air strikes and clashes have rocked Khartoum after Sudan’s army launched a major offensive to take back areas it lost early in its war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

It comes as a cholera outbreak that’s killed almost 500 people in two months, appears to be spreading more rapidly. This, in a country where half the 50 million population is suffering severe hunger.

View original: https://www.channel4.com/news/sudans-army-launches-major-offensive-on-capital-khartoum

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Zamzam IDP camp in Al Fasher, N Darfur, Sudan could be surrounded by Hemeti's RSF in days or weeks

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: A nightmare scenario, unless something major happens and none of the current trends change, is not only the fall of Sudan's Armed Forces' (SAF) 6th Infantry Division in Al Fasher, capital city of North Darfur, Sudan to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) but that Zamzam IDP camp in the area is also likely to be surrounded by RSF in days or weeks.

Here is a rough transcript I made of a video (Abrabic subtitles) showing Abdallah Hussain, News Anchor for Albalad TV interviewing Nathaniel Raymond, Director, Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health, USA on Sunday, 22 Sept 2024 and streamed on 23 Sept 2024.

Question by ABDALLAH HUSSAIN:

"So Mr Raymond, regarding your previous point that RSF outnumbers the joint forces plus the Sudanese Army and of course the rainy season has been a factor right now that’s occurring on the battlefield, what after the rainy season can we anticipate that El Fasher will fall?"

Answer by NATHANIEL RAYMOND:

"If, at the end of the day making predictions in a yes, no or [on this day?] X or Y is going to happen doesn’t help but I think it does help to talk about where the trends are going.

Right now, Sudan Armed Forces controls a corridor on the western side of the city that’s maybe 8-9 kilometres long by 4 kilometres wide depending on how you measure it. And RSF has all the [advantages?] at this point. 

Now things can change but if none of the current trends change what we really have to worry about is not only the fall of 6th Infantry Division in Al Fasher but is a Rapid Support Forces move on Zamzam camp. 

What for me is a nightmare scenario and you can tell by watching the space - the Sudan Armed Forces is also concerned about this - is that RSF takes the B26 road going south, not [South?] Sudan Armed Forces' checkpoint on that road, and then from Al Fasher in Nyala squeezes Zamzam and surrounds it, and you can tell based on what we can see inside Zamzam that people there are also concerned about being surrounded and that is a nightmare scenario [.?.] unless something major happens the [trend line?] is that Al Fasher will fall and Zamzam is likely to be surrounded in days or weeks".

FURTHER VIDEO👇 

El Fasher Siege Continues | Analysis

VIDEO INTERVIEW dated Tue, Sept 24, 2024: "As the siege continues and El Fasher battles intensify, Abdallah Hussain, News Anchor for Albalad TV spoke with Nathaniel Raymond, Executive Director at the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health, to delve into the escalating humanitarian crisis and its impact on civilians".

Source: YouTube https://youtu.be/J_CtJr3YJXw

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Related

African Union urges end to fighting in Sudan's El-Fasher

AFP yesterday (24 Sep) says African Union urges end to fighting in Sudan's El-Fasher: AUC said its chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat "calls for an immediate cessation of the fighting inside and outside of El-Fasher," it added. Mahamat also called on the AU's Peace and Security Council to "urgently consider the situation".

Full story: https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/532383.aspx

Sudan: RSF to turn Zurrug, N. Darfur into a dream city

Sudan Watch - October 05, 2023
As Hemeti, the ruthless leader of Sudan's Janjaweed militia, has grand plans for Zurrug, a remote western province in North Darfur, Sudan the transformation of Zurrug risks more unrest. 

Full story: https://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/2023/10/sudan-rsf-to-turn-zurrug-n-darfur-into.html

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Sudan's ex-president Bashir and ex-defence minister Abdel-Rahim Muhammad Hussein taken to hospital

FILE PHOTO: Sudan's Former President Omar al-Bashir. AP

SUDAN'S jailed former president al-Bashir was transferred yesterday (24 Sep) to a hospital in the town of Merowe, about 330 kilometres (205 miles) north of Khartoum and Sudan's former Defence Minister Abdel-Rahim Muhammad Hussein — who was also arrested soon after al-Bashir — was also transferred to the same facility. 

Allegedly, 80-year-old al-Bashir has been held at a military facility on the outskirts of the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. 

Full story by Associated Press (AP): https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/532445.aspx

Kristof is on Chad-Sudan border: Shame of hunger belongs to those who are powerful, well fed and blind

NOTE from Sudan Watch Editor: Longtime American columnist and Sudan watcher Nicholas Kristof is back in the saddle on the Chad-Sudan border. 

Kristof is a great storyteller who never lets a few facts get in his way. In his article below, he says a US partner, the UAE, supplies weapons to RSF militia in Sudan but omits to say the US is one of the leading arms traders to UAE. 

Trouble is, eye popping online news tends to spread quickly around the world and is viewed as fact before the truth has had time to get its boots on.

If Nicholas says (he doesn't) 150,000 died in Sudan and others say 15-23K, so be it. Readers of his news in New York Times assume NYT news is true.

In June, UN stated 15,500 fatalities reported in 1,400 incidents targeting civilians; 9.5M displaced – 7.3M internally, 1.9M in neighbouring countries.

This month, ACLED says "since fighting first broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 15 April 2023, ACLED records over 7,623 events of political violence and more than 23,105 reported fatalities in Sudan. On 5 September 2024, ACLED released corrections to the Sudan data that updated events with fatalities in West Darfur state, as reported by Human Rights Watch (HRW) in its published report titled ‘The Massalit Will Not Come Home’: Ethnic Cleansing and Crimes Against Humanity in El Geneina, West Darfur, Sudan. The new information from HRW resulted in ACLED recording 2,635 additional fatalities in West Darfur during the period of April to November 2023. For more on how ACLED incorporated the information from the HRW report, see this update in the ACLED Knowledge Base".

So, Nicholas is back on the scene. Hold onto your hats Messrs Burhan and Hemeti. Longtime Sudan watchers are alive and well. Vive la révolution! 

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From The New York Times

OPINION editorial by By Nicholas Kristof

Opinion Columnist, reporting from the Chad/Sudan border

Dated 18 September 2024. Here is a full copy, for the record and posterity:

I Just Went to Darfur. Here Is What Shattered Me.

Credit: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

When an Arab militia rampaged through Maryam Suleiman’s village in the Darfur region of Sudan last year and lined up men and boys to massacre, the gunmen were blunt about their purpose.

“We don’t want to see any Black people,” a militia leader said, adding mockingly: “We don’t even want to see black trash bags.” To make his point, Maryam recalled, he shot a donkey because it was black.

Then the militia members executed men and boys who belonged to Black African ethnic groups, she said. 

“They shot my five brothers, one after the other,” Maryam told me, describing how her youngest brother survived the first bullet and called out to her. Then a militia member shot him in the head and sneeringly asked her what she thought of that.

The militia tried to systematically kill all the males over 10, Maryam said, and also killed some younger ones. A 1-day-old boy was thrown to the ground and killed, and one male infant was thrown into a pond to drown, she said.

The gunmen then rounded up the women and girls in a corral to rape, she added. “They raped many, many girls,” she recalled. One man tried to rape Maryam, she said, and when he failed he beat her. She was pregnant and suffered a miscarriage.

“You’re slaves,” Maryam quoted the militia members as saying. “There is no place for you Black people in Sudan.” So Maryam fled to neighboring Chad and is one of more than 10 million Sudanese who have been forcibly displaced since a civil war began last year in the country and ignited pogroms against Black African ethnic groups like hers.

Maryam Suleiman wept as she recounted how a militia in Sudan attacked her village and killed her five brothers. Photo Credit: Nicholas Kristof

The atrocities underway near here are an echo of the Darfur genocide of two decades ago, with the additional complication of famine. But there’s a crucial difference: At that time, world leaders, celebrities and university students vigorously protested the slaughter and joined forces to save hundreds of thousands of lives. Today, in contrast, the world is distracted and silent. So the impunity is allowing violence to go unchecked, which, in turn, is producing what may become the worst famine in half a century or more.

“It’s beyond anything we’ve ever seen,” Cindy McCain, the executive director of the United Nations World Food Program, told me. “It’s catastrophic.”

“Unless,” she added, “we can get our job done.”

World leaders will convene next week in New York for the annual United Nations General Assembly, but they have been mostly indifferent and are unlikely to get the job done. What’s needed is far greater pressure to end the civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the rival Arab militia, while pushing the warring parties to allow humanitarian access. All sides in the war are behaving irresponsibly, so more than half the people of Sudan — 25 million people — have become acutely malnourished already. A famine was formally declared in one area in Sudan in the summer.

WATCH VIDEO 2:18

Nicholas Kristof on the Silent Famine in Darfur

This is what I witnessed — and it shattered me.

Timmo Gaasbeek, a disaster expert who has modeled the crisis for a research institute in the Netherlands, told me that he foresees 13 million people starving to death in Sudan by October 2025, with a margin of error of two million. Such a toll would make this one of the worst famines in world history and the worst since the great Chinese famine of 65 years ago. By way of contrast, the famous Ukraine famine of the 1930s killed perhaps four million people, although estimates vary.

I can’t verify that a cataclysm of that level is approaching. Warring parties blocked me from entering Sudanese areas they controlled, so I reported along the Chad-Sudan border. Arriving refugees described starvation but not yet mass mortality from malnutrition.

All I can say is that whether or not a cataclysmic famine is probable, it is a significant risk. Those in danger are people like Thuraya Muhammad, a slight 17-year-old orphan who told me how her world unraveled when the Rapid Support Forces, the same group that killed Maryam’s five brothers, attacked her village and began burning homes and shooting men and boys.

“So many men were killed, like grains of sand,” she told me.

When Thuraya Muhammad, an orphan because of Sudan’s war, doesn’t have enough food to feed her younger sister and brother, she gives them water to fill their stomachs. Photo Credit: Nicholas Kristof

After slaughtering the men in Thuraya’s village, the militia raped many women and girls, she said. Thuraya’s cousin, a woman of 20, was among those kidnapped by the militia and hasn’t been seen since, she added.

Thuraya’s father was murdered by the militia and her mother had died earlier, so at 16 she was now the head of the household. She led her younger brother and two younger sisters to safety by walking to the Chadian border town of Adré. Gunmen tried to rob them several times, but the family had nothing left to steal.

Now in a refugee camp in Chad, Thuraya works to feed her siblings. Like other refugees, she gets a monthly food allotment from the World Food Program that helps but is insufficient. She supports her family by seeking day jobs washing clothes or cleaning houses (for about 25 cents a day). When she finds work, she and her siblings eat; if not, they may go hungry.

When I dropped by their hut, Thuraya had been unable to find work that day. A friendly neighbor had given her a cup of coffee, but she hadn’t eaten anything since the previous day — and there was no prospect of dinner, either. If there is no food, Thuraya told me, she serves water to her siblings in place of dinner.

She wept.

Thuraya wasn’t crying from her own pangs of hunger. Rather, tears tumbled silently down her cheeks out of shame at her inability to feed her brother and sisters.

“When there isn’t enough food, I give it to my sisters and brother,” she told me, and her younger sister Fatima confirmed that. “I go hungry, or else my neighbors may call me over to eat with them.”

“I’d rather my sisters and brother eat, because they cry when they go hungry,” she said. “And I can’t bear to hear them cry.”

Fatima resists the favoritism and tries to give her sister back some food. But Thuraya won’t take it and goes out, telling her brother and sisters to eat while she finds something for herself. They all know that in a refugee camp of about 200,000 hungry people, she will find nothing.

I’m hoping that Thuraya’s fortitude might inspire President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, along with world leaders gathering at the United Nations, to summon a similar resolve to tackle slaughter and starvation in Sudan. Donor nations have contributed less than half the sum needed by U.N. agencies to ease Sudan’s food crisis, and they have not insisted forcefully on either providing humanitarian access or on cutting off the flow of weapons that sustains the war.

Biden, who 20 years ago savaged President George W. Bush for not doing enough to stop the Darfur genocide, has provided aid and appointed a special envoy to push for peace talks but has said little about the current crisis. An American partner, the United Arab Emirates, supplies weapons to the militia that slaughtered and raped Thuraya’s neighbors, yet Biden has not publicly demanded that the Emirates cut off that support for killers and rapists.

The upshot of this neglect is the risk not only of a horrendous famine but also of endless war, Sudan’s fragmentation, enormous refugee flows and instability across the region.

So as world leaders at the U.N. General Assembly tuck into fine banquets next week to celebrate their humanitarianism, may they be awakened by thoughts of an orphan of Darfur who ignores her own hunger and divides scraps of bread among her brother and sisters.

Thuraya has no reason to feel ashamed that her siblings are hungry; the shame belongs to those who are powerful, well fed and blind.

What question do you have about the civil war in Sudan and the people affected by it? What more would you like to know? Submit your question or critique in the field below and Nicholas Kristof will try to respond to a selection of queries in a future installment in this series.

Want to stay updated on what’s happening in Chad and Sudan? Sign up for Your Places: Global Update, and we’ll send our latest coverage to your inbox.

View original (currently a free gift unlocked article): https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/opinion/darfur-sudan-famine.html

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